For Greece, "Tomorrow" Has Arrived

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Mark Grant, Author of the Financial Commentary: "Out of the Box"

Tomorrow Has Arrived

The day dawns with a deal for Greece that is full of smoke and mirrors; lies and deceptions. It is a deal pretty much as expected and, as I have said before, now the realities are going to be confronted. Europe has spun the agreement and the Euro has rallied some and the S&P futures are up but the next few weeks, I am afraid, will hold some serious disappointments. The page turns today because now we are about to confront not what is told to us but the actuality of what has been presented to us and just what will happen as a result.

How many European Union officials does it take to change a light bulb?

None. There is nothing wrong with the light bulb; its condition is improving every day. Any reports of its lack of incandescence are an illusional spin from people that unfortunately know how to add and subtract. Illuminating rooms is hard work. That light bulb has served honorably, and anything Mark Grant says undermines the lighting effort.

The Smoke and Mirrors

The IMF has not yet stated what its contribution will be to Greece and will not, they tell us, until the middle of March so that we will not know until then the real size of the bailout. The much promoted $176Bn bailout may not be accurate if the IMF pulls back on their allocation.

The projections for the growth of Greece, even in the leaked document provided by Reuters, utilize assumptions that will not be met, which has been the case every time, each time, for the last two years so that fuzzy math is being touted once again and the new/new projections will, in my opinion, come nowhere close to the truth.

The IIF agreed to further cuts last night for private investors, which no one but they have agreed to, so that shortly we will see how many institutions go along with the scheme and how many will sue as a result of the forced haircut that cuts about 74% from Net Present Value. We will also see law suits in London concerning the $18Bn of Greek debt that is governed under British law which may have quite interesting results. The Troika’s projections rest upon a 95% participation by private investors and I think they are living in a dream state if this is their expectation. In a Reuter’s article this morning they report: "The 32 members of the IIF's larger creditors' committee had a least 44 billion in euros in residual holdings.” If this is correct then the IIF is only representing 12.2% of the Greek bondholders.

The ECB has swapped their bonds with Greece and taken a senior position to private bond holders clearly indicating that they can swap their bonds with a sovereign nation to change any clause they do not like and if they can do it with Greece they obviously can do it with any other nation so that we will soon see law suits challenging this operation. We may also see, as a result of this, some institutions not subject to European manipulation, selling their positions as they do not wish to be subordinated to the whims of the ECB. I would also make note that the ratings agencies may take due note of this action and might reduce the ratings of all of the sovereign nations in Europe based upon this action. In evaluating a sovereign there is credit risk and political risk and I assert that the political risk has now been greatly magnified.

The ECB tell us that they will give their profits on the Greek bonds bank to the European central banks except there are no profits, only severe losses presently, so that all of this talk of profits is really the expectation of getting their money back at maturity which is years away. Their claim in the Press is not just misleading but an outright charade of mis-direction.

Greece will shortly be placed into “Default” by S&P and Fitch which will trigger default language in all kinds of securitizations including Greece’s $90Bn in derivatives and may cause disgorgement from accounts that are forbidden to hold defaulted bonds.

After the country has been placed into “Default” the banks will soon follow and once again there will be all kinds of consequences in interbank lending, securitizations, collateral agreements et al from all of this.

The CDS contracts for Greece may or may not function as they stand but, as I am quite certain will happen, not enough bond holders tender their bonds for the new debt so that Greece will pass the “Collective Action Clause” which will certainly trigger CDS in my opinion and if not will show the fallacy of that market.

The structure of the deal puts the IMF/EU/ECB clearly in control of the finances of Greece so they have replaced some sort of Czar with the bureaucrats of the Troika and the country no longer will control its own finances as they traded away their sovereignty for cash. In fact, an escrow account will be set up for Greece which will be controlled by the Troika and Greece is being forced to change their Constitution pledging to pay their creditors before providing any money for the country. A quick study of the math reveals that Greece will get about 19 cents on the Dollar and the rest of the money is the sovereign nations of Europe paying back their banks with the money they have supposedly lent to Greece. Greece is now nothing more than a conduit for the nations of Europe to pay back their own financial institutions. 

Now we will see if the Parliaments in Europe will go along with this plan as many still have to approve it and a careful reading of the math involved here may be troubling for some governments especially Finland and the Netherlands.

We will also see, with Greek elections looming, how the citizens react to all of this either in the polling booths or in the streets as an additional $4Bn of spending cuts have been mandated by the Troika and they state that the money will not be paid to Greece until they are implemented which must be by the end of February.

The total outstanding debt for Greece will now rise to $1.270Tn as new debt pays off old debt in a country with substantial negative growth so that the real situation, regardless of what we are told, worsens.

In early May Greece faces its next bond payments so there may be a re-do for all of this in several months’ time.

If Greece is actually going to get the next round of the bailout then the other side of the coin is the increased debt being taken on by the other countries in Europe which could cause more downgrades as the new debt to GDP numbers are assessed.

“A sleight of hand is not magic; just a trick. It is amazing to me these days how proficient the EU and the ECB have become in turning tricks.”

-The Wizard
 

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Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:11 | 2180627 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

Bloomberg radio is the same thing. over and over. as if they know.

Right!

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:54 | 2180547 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

I guess that destruction of contract law is not just an American thingy.  True Globalism at work.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:04 | 2180605 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Didn't one of the US presidents recently say "The constitiution is just a piece of paper"?  They have put themselves above the law by buying the law. Not sure if they won't get what's coming to them or not, we'll see in the likes of God from GS.  He hasn't got a defense attorney and stepping down because he's going on vacation. But then again if he gets tried and convicted he could be going on vacation he just can't leave the island.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:32 | 2180693 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Sitting US justices don't think the Con stitutio nis worth a shit, no positive entitlements..  Watch and WEEP..

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/02/03/ruth_bader_ginsburg_to_egypt_dont_use_us_constitution_as_a_model.html

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:49 | 2180748 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

NO, A Recent President DID NOT say that.

It was a hoax by Capital Hill Blue, Daily Kos whackjob Doug Thompson, who claimed someone told someone, who told HIM that Bush said it. He later withdrew it.

 

A simple piece of AgitProp designed to anger simple sheep, and keep them on the approved narrative.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:56 | 2180550 durablefaith
durablefaith's picture

Great post. The unethical and precedent setting nature of this news is lost on most americans who will soon have to choose who to follow: Greece or Iceland.

http://durablefaith.com/2012/02/21/america-who-you-will-follow-greece-or-iceland/#comment-1444

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:09 | 2180614 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep, and geopolitics WILL be a major factor.  All city folk (especially welfare lemmings) will vote for Greece, while rural areas and states with abundant natural resources will vote for iceland.  If the overall politico decides to go Greece, then we get another civil war in this country with the BRICs ultimately funding their own interests and OWNING whatever is left over.  No fucking way Texas, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Montana or Alaska will take the greek path. Hedge accordingly.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2180556 monopoly
monopoly's picture

"Greece is being forced to change their constitution". This is insane. Not going to happen.

And yes, this is important, Greece is front and center stage. If slave lords can change the rule of law on bonds and put "themselves" first then this is a game changer. Are you going to buy bonds in Europe or here knowing what can change with your safe "bond investment"? Does GM and Obama ring a bell.

Greece cannot pay this money back, just like we cannot pay it back. Sovereign downgrades and debt defaults affect us all, not just those in Greece. Would you like to guess how much debt our broken banks hold via Greece and Europe? Yes, this is important.

So, you think it is over at this point. Nope. Greece will be center stage again in a few weeks. Anyone here think all is well in Portugal, Spain, or Italy. Who will be next. So yes, this is important.

And this just gives us an idea of the path strewn with land mines this country is going to go through. You really think we are "decoupled" from Europe or the rest of the planet. That is just bullshit. You really think we have intelligent people running our federal reserve, White House or Congress.

It all matters, one small country, on cockroach. When was the last time you saw just 1 cockroach?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:09 | 2180619 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I think you hit the nail on the mentioning something about our broken banks.  If this were a book i'd def be skipping to the last chapter.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:26 | 2180664 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

sov long term "risk free" rates just went up around the world... Oh no they didnt, yield is down cos ES ,money loooking for a safe haven.. bifurcation trade...

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:23 | 2180846 roccman
roccman's picture

yep

 

greece (like nazi germany)

 

were the beta tests

 

this is all training/calibration...moving the ball further up the field

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:57 | 2180569 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Funny how all these idiots are focusing on Greece while Japan, with a GDP 18 times the size of Greece is getting worse...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/20/us-japan-economy-trade-idUSTRE...

Japan logs record trade deficit in January

Japan posted its biggest ever trade deficit in January, topping the previous record seen during the financial crisis in 2009, Ministry of Finance data showed On Monday, underlining concerns that a persistent trade gap may undermine the country's ability to finance its debt.

The trade deficit stood at 1.475 trillion yen ($18.59 billion), against median market forecast for 1.468 trillion yen, marking a fourth straight month of deficit, as weak global demand and a strong yen hurt exports and robust fuel demand boosts imports.

And to top it all, Iran is playing right into the hands of the elite.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/22/world/middleeast/iran-says-un-weapons-...

Iran Warns of Pre-Emptive Action in Nuclear Dispute

As tension grew in its nuclear dispute with the West, Iran was reported on Tuesday to have struck an increasingly bellicose tone, warning that it would take pre-emptive action against perceived foes if it felt its national interests were threatened.

Stupid Iran.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2180576 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Also, the unemployed have found a new game to suck money from the government...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02/19/report-millions-jobless-file-...

Report : Millions of jobless file for disability when unemployment benefits run out
The New York Post reported Sunday that as unemployment checks run out, many jobless are trying to gain government benefits by declaring themselves unhealthy.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:30 | 2180677 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

UK unemployment rose by a mssive amount coz people outside hte labour force were counted back in... 

UK has clapmed down on Sickie Benefit claimers, forcing them to claim jobseekers allowance, its goign through now... 

 

popiint is Uk is ahead of the curve of US curve on this one, US trend will reverse when  the sickie claims run out or clampdown begins

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:16 | 2180822 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Well can you blame them? What's the alternative? Go off in the woods and die? I say suck the gov't dry and implode it. It's gona happen anyways, id rather do it fast than live my next 30 years in a constant state of deterioration.

I've already been doing that for 20 years now and im tired of it. Every career path i've tried has gradually gone to shit. Not just my personal position but in general.  Granted that's my fault being involved in what I was in but on the other hand when only a small % are making it then something is obviously wrong with this picture.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:21 | 2180838 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

And let's not get on the topic that's been popularized as of late: "make your own job".  That's the same thing as opening a business.  Very small success rate.  Millions of people just can't "make there income" in fast enough time to survive. It will never work. Things are so bad the gov't is actually planning on training military vets to become vegetable farmers.??? Really? Good luck with that. I know a guy that had a 50 acre vegetable farm for a few years and sales went to zilch when the economy turned and he couldn't even justify staying in business when all he hired were illegals. And now there telling vets that's the next big thing?  The only way that would ever work is if the gov't floats them and then in 10 years it will be the next big crash and flop but in the meantime kept gun loving killing machines calm and out of someone's hair.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:25 | 2180855 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

rsn, I think that is one of the governments best plans I have heard of in a long time. I'ts got my vote, for sure.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:26 | 2180864 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

LMAO. No, I actually read that somewhere. Just blowing off some steam till I go cut some firewood. Then again maybe I should've saved my energy for that.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:42 | 2180914 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I'm splitting and stacking for next winter this afternoon.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:59 | 2180937 roccman
roccman's picture

yep

 

takes 1 acre of land per person per year

 

and that is WITH fossil fuel inputs (pesticides and ferts)

 

fact is - most of the world has gotten hooked on 1) cheap unlimited energy and 2) debt

 

and both are coming to an end - pretty fucking quick

 

there is no happy chapter - really - overshoot will not be papered or permacultured over - overshoot cannot be negotiated with - a dieoff is a biological certainty for a species that has exceeded its carrying capacity (and we are somewhere in the range of 400 times above CC) - thomas malthus was right a couple hundred years ago - so too was the club of rome.

 

the "elites" have been preparing for this for a few thousand years - we just will not stop breeding - [.]

so an exponential function will always trump a linear one - the petri dish is full - we have doubled - it just takes a few seconds for the elasticity to realize what has happened

 

kinda like that wiley e coyote moment - he has long since flown over the cliff - what's left is the look down - the realization.

 

that's all folks

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:05 | 2180608 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

What makes you think that Iran is not playing with the elite? 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:25 | 2180856 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

At this point in time it's hard telling what anyone is up to.  If WW3 turns out be "contained" and only a few nukes get dropped here and there and we end up with world government then it's obvious all the superpowers were in bed with each other all along and even more reason to hate them.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:00 | 2181014 roccman
roccman's picture

They are

 

Iran is no more then the bad cop.

 

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2180573 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

This is where the face of fascism is finally exposed. Just as before, defaults will not be declared, terms will be made retroactive, bond holders will be painted as vultures and opportunists and the rule of law will be shredded. The courts will fill with lawsuits and the judges will turn a deaf ear. 

People will learn that their governments are bought, their courts are a sham and the law is what the bankers say it is. 

Strangely, the people will accept the constraints. Their livestyle will diminish and the great masses will live in poverty. Even if it takes twenty years to unfold. They will receive bread, they will enjoy the circuses, they will cower before the paid mercenaries. New taxes will be created and old ones expanded. Consumption taxes will penalize the people and make their meager earnings adequate for what they are willing to spend.

This is how the pendulum swings, from the class societies of the monarch and merchantilists, to the great awakening of Classical liberalism and the middle class, to the class societies of the fascists. 

The revolution will be weak and it will be televised. Unfortunately, it will die with a whimper. 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:21 | 2180837 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

"... their governments are bought, their courts are a sham..."

Welcome to the world of moral relativism. There is no more right and wrong for us, only looking out for number one. And if that requires an attitude of mutual back-scratching, so be it. After all, we ordinary folks can't expect Ivy-educated elites to experience shame and fall on their own swords, if only figuratively, can we?

America is beginning to pay the price for having turned it's back on a common morality. Laws based on "shall not commit murder", "shall not steal" and "shall not bear false witness" have joined "shall not commit adultery" and "shall not covet" in the dustbin of history. Some would say good riddance and join the march into a police state. Others, remembering the warnings of our founding fathers, will weep.

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2180574 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Surprisingly muted bond market reaction, Must mean that no one thinks Greece will deliver, including me.  Neil Sedaka's "Breaking up is hard to do" should be rewritten as "Spending cuts are hard to do."

Euro-area Finance Ministers Reach Agreement on 2nd Round of Bailouts for Greece: Bond Market Reaction is … Meh


http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/euro-area-finance-ministers-reach-agreement-on-2nd-round-of-bailouts-for-greece/

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:00 | 2180587 end-of-daze
end-of-daze's picture

The Greek crisis is a test bed for the rest and the rest are a smokescreen for the US problems.

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:04 | 2180594 Kevlar Akubra
Kevlar Akubra's picture

 

There once was a nation called Greece

Whose folk were effectively fleeced

It was all doom and gloom

Til they had a small boom

Shipping chicken chow mein to the East

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:02 | 2180596 Stuart
Stuart's picture

CDS, forever voluntary....  to all CDS holders, SUCKERS and thanks for the fees.. lol

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:16 | 2180640 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

If you woke up today and found out your bonds are no longer protected by CDS what do you do? Sell.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:31 | 2180690 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Lock n' load?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:18 | 2180641 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Here's what Mish says:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

He's usually pretty well thought out on this stuff, pretty much calls it horseshit also.

I kinda like the combination of the 2 websites, I get fired up and break out the tin foil hat and food supplies and gold coins on ZH then I use Mish to rationalize it all and put things in perspective.  In other words keep all that stuff but don't break it out just yet as you may have another 30 days of normality in your life.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:36 | 2180706 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

So far, the markets seem to be yawning over this. At least some investors recognize the inevitable truth; the Greek bailouts are never going to end. Think of it like Middle East peace talks. Each time the underlying economic forces overcome the overlying politics and central financial plans, these agreements will fall apart faster than it takes to create them, only to be replaced by another again, and again, and again.  Each time more money will be printed to throw at the problem. After all, this is the second Greek bailout agreement in six months, right? One more and they will almost match the frequency of Fed bailouts and quantitative easing in the U.S.

 

This is the new paradigm we live in now, where mountain ranges of debt and centrally planned fiscal and monetary policy dominate action in all world markets. $100 billion here, $500 billion there. It all makes that whopping $5 billion Facebook IPO look small and trivial by comparison; doesn’t it? Oh well, when central banks and their Wall Street masters discover they can profit by coercing the people’s governments to do their bidding for them, who needs the private sector anyway.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:43 | 2180726 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

This will never end

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:28 | 2180870 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Tomorrow better arrive for a lower gold price, because I need to buy more, and I just got priced out.  Show daddy $1680, just one more time!

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:29 | 2180876 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

My favorite part of the MSM spin: that Greek debt will shrink to 120% of GDP by 2020. Anytime I hear government projections out more than 1-2 years, my bullshit meter goes off. Greek GDP growth estimates for Q4 2011 were off by a mile and we're supposed to believe 2020 estimates?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:38 | 2180900 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Good point in the article - the only way this bailout is successful is if Greece is/was a surplus country, so they could actually pay off their debt load. They are not, which means that every month the situation will get worse until the debt load (even with the 70% haircut) returns to the present condition. Except that next time there will be very few private holders of Greek debt, so who will be there to take it up the ass next time?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:42 | 2180912 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

mark - this is the most stupendous coverage of the greek debt situation i have read in the past 2 years (and yes i have read more than 1)

it is succinct and covers the salient points without resort to circuitous labrynthine byzantine sentence structure  (*wink* *wink* zh :-o) to make its point. thank you for a job well done...

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:51 | 2180954 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

(paste):  It is a deal pretty much as expected

yep

dealing superficially w/ the effects of past mistakes is itself a mistake

they will not allow debt to clear b/c there is nothing to clear it with except more debt or other "paper coupons" created by~~debt!

theproblems are very, very deep and these clowns will never get to them;  hammer pounds nails;  if printing isn't the answer, it must be "somebody else's" problem = thePeople's, sheeples', and their kiddies'

the nobility, er, elites, are just putting their expense vouchers in their chamber pots so the maids can clean up after their morning "toilet" and then go enjoy their cake!

once the "e-CON-0'mist-ers&miss-es" "grow" the economy, these problems won't seem so important

you just wait and see!

L0L!!!  fuking moronic whipsocks!

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:54 | 2180979 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

This is a bit off-topic, but I'm curious about the beach vacation season in Greece. Typically, a lot of German tourists go down to Greece for their holiday, right? I wonder what the social dynamic is going to be in Greece tourist spots this year?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:56 | 2180989 PhilB
PhilB's picture

CDS conttracts typically were no more than 5 years. So the very fact that Greece ran into problems more than 2 years ago, means a large portion of the CDS have matured.

What remains will have minimal net effect, but who knows if there is any concentrations outside the major financial institutions.

This deal is clearly unsustainable in the medium term and maybe in the short term. But the May bond maturities no longer are relevant if they do the swap (with CACs im sure). Whatever holdouts that happen with the March 20th bond will be the only real date. The May bonds pose no risk by themselves.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:05 | 2181036 BiPolarFrenchman
BiPolarFrenchman's picture

Western Civilization started with Greece, may as well end there too.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 19:05 | 2182591 LongOfTooth
LongOfTooth's picture

Where I’m from terminology like “turning tricks” is used by folks in the business of prostitution.  Oh wait, that applies to this situation too so just ignore my observation.


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