The Greek €107 Billion Contingent Liability Gorilla Exposed

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From Mark Grant, as a follow up The Eight Hundred Pound Greek Gorilla Enters The Room

THE 800 POUND GREEK GORILLA (EXPOSED)

When we have been given the data on Greek sovereign debt it appears we have been misled. I have added up now the ISDA debt issuances and I present them to you; all of these issuances are GUARANTEED by the Hellenic Republic; full faith and credit.

GREEK SOVEREIGN GUARANTEED DEBT                                AMOUNT

The New Economy Development Fund                              $139,000,000.00

The Hellenic Railway                                                          $2,240,000,000.00   

Structured Notes (Not counting Floating Rate Notes)         $20,683,000,000.00   

Athens Urban    Transportation                                         $837,000,000.00

Greek Bank Guaranteed Debt                                            $83,314,000,000.00

TOTAL GREEK GUARANTEED. DEBT                                $107,213,000,000.00

Here is $107 billion of OTHER debt; guaranteed debt that does not appear to be included anywhere in the official Greek sovereign debt figures. Contingent liabilities that are not counted any longer perhaps as the accepted manner of doing business now in Europe. Most of these issuances are governed under British law with “Default” clauses and “Negative Covenant” clauses. Greece defaults on €105 billion Euros and adds new debt, the IMF/EU loans, of 130 billion Euros and we are told that Greece is better off today than yesterday. What drivel! With the addition of the new IMF/EU loans of $172 billion and the revelation of the guaranteed debt at $107 billion Greece now has $279 billion of new and hidden debts.

All of the meandering, all of the charades, all of the red nail polish applied will, in the end I forecast, not be able to hide the reality that the barking dog is a greasy Pig.

A Dose of Reality:

  1. If Greece borrows money from the IMF/EU which means that they have more debt now than they did before they defaulted then they are worse off and not better off as they have a larger debt.
  2. If Greece has an additional $107 billion in debt that has not been accounted for because it is not in the name of the Hellenic Republic but is guaranteed by the Hellenic Republic then how are they going to pay off this debt?
  3. If the goal of this entire exercise was to reduce Greece’s debt to GDP ratio to 120% then how will a larger debt accomplish this as it is fiscally impossible.
  4. If the “real REAL goal” was to pay off the European banks so they wouldn’t default then Europe has accomplished this goal but at a terrible cost to Greece and to the Greek people.

 

“The time has come, the Walrus said, to speak of many things. Of ships and shoes and sealing wax, of cabbages and kings. Of why the sea is boiling hot, and whether pigs have wings.”
                                         -Lewis Carol

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