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Ze Price Stabeeleetee...
One day yield moves. Self explanatory:
charts via BBG
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Thank God (with capital G) that the ECB got out in the nick of time:)
'We're alright, Jack -- shame about all you newly-minted SUBORDINATEES. God's mercy on you swine!'
um....wtf is the par now? .000001?
Poor Leo. At least he still has his Chineee Solahs.
629%....
Which is exactly why there will be no default. The PTB will simply not let those kind of profits go un-realized.
Print.., print.., print, the little people pay!
BTW..., is a 75% haircut inclusive of the returns on interest, or just the principle? Because a 75% haircut on a 629% profit ain't bad. I'd buy that for a dollar!
Even if it is principle, 75% off the principle * 629% interest is still very profitable. Where do i buy?
Baltic Dry index is dropping again - at 723 right now.
With the 1 year Greek bond quickly heading north again, we could see these 2 intersect near 700.
We live in interesting times.......
lol
too bad the baltic dry means nothing anymore, well I guess Greece doesn't either
I'd forgive Ben Bernanke if he found a way to print hot women that made sound choices.
The irony that Greece was known for its outsized (relative to GDP) shipping industry, or that Jackie O was remarried to Aristotle Onassis, a Greek shipping magnate, after the jackals of fractional reserve deeds whacked JFK.
she needed dick with a fat ass wallet...bitch like that wasn't going to be buying off the rack and flying coach
nothin from nothing leaves.... bullish! on to 1450!!
As long as someone is buying, even at 629%, they will keep selling. It's not like they ever intend to pay it back.
As a black man once told me, it's not "Debt", if you never intend to pay the bill.
Was the color of the man pertinent? C'mon.....
Makes the good old days of 400% yield just two months ago look ordinary.
Oh those were the days indeed! Warm, fuzzy memories.
Greece is now a penny stock.
OTC, pink sheets. About to be acquired by Bain Capital who will drain them for bankruptcy fees.
Greece is now owned, lock, stock & barrel, by The Money Masters.
They now are on to their next targets, more nations that formerly collectively believed they were democratic, free & sovereign.
400%? It was under 100% last summer. If Mother Fucking Global went under a few months ago I wonder how ASSGEN is holding up?
Please help me to understand this. For 600% a year. If I buy the bond and flip it the next day, I will have close to 2 % gain. Am I right ?
Not really. Who or what is going to pay your interest? How much will you be able to sell it for tomorrow? Who will buy it?
Musical chairs for keeps, bitchez. Music's still playin' - are you in?
Or does one have to hold them 1 year?
Maybe you will not collect the yield and then tomorrow, nobody will buy the bond that you try to sell for a 2% loss in price per day.
You get 600% if you hold them to maturity and they get repaid in full.
Lotta "ifs" in there. Oh and you should have mentioned, you might get paid in Drachmas at some unknown rate of exchange against the original Euros. Or maybe even, paid in ripe olives at the warehouse in Athens, you ship. This could end up anywhere.
Would Drachma's count as a credit event?
Sounds like a nice insurance product - either I loose the money and get to enjoy watching a credit event, or the perpetual motion can defys all odds and I suffer with 6x the euros in my pocket ... I'd have said sign me up long ago if I even vaguely trusted this was the deal at hand.
I believe ISDA already has demonstrated that the concept of a credit event has a fluid definition at best
LMAO!!
What was the bond yield at 1 year ago? Do those people get paid today?
At some point in the last year, the 1 year went from about 5% to about 40% - it depends on whether you got in on that move - but there seems to be a gap in the chart - were the Greek 1 years selling last spring - or did they shut them down for a while?
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND/chart
Minor quibble:
You only get 600% if you hold them to maturity and get repaid in full and the € retains its relative value until that time.
LMAO. Sorta like going to the track and blowing the rent money on a "sure thing"...
There is a Tier 2 open market for trading Bonds in the US. I honestly don't know if the same exists for Greek Bonds
http://www.sec.gov/answers/bondselling.htm
Please help me to understand this. For 600% a year. If I buy the bond and flip it the next day, I will have close to 2 % gain. Am I right ?
------------------------------------------------
I am sure some guy said the same thing last week when the yield was 400%.
I meant to tell him earlier that if buys the bond with a coupon of 600% and flips it the next day, he could theoretically have close to a 2% (or 600%) loss, depending on whether Greece a) imposes haircuts on creditors (with the EU's blessing), b) gets bailed out and stays in the EU, c) decides, along with the EU, on some other hybrid or variant plan.
These are lottery tickets, plain and simple. But they don't represent the black & white calculus of winning or losing that lottery tickets do.
These bonds are riddled with possibilities.
It's a complex formula, but the key part is "imputed interest". Greeks no longer impute. Implode and imperil and "imbarrass" maybe, but impute, no.
Where is my fucking blue pill?
CNN, FOX, MSNBC...
Anyone remember when Leo told us these were a screaming buy with a 7% coupon?
I can still hear the screaming. But soon the lamb will go silent.
I miss Ignatius.
I miss Incatatus (but maybe he is dressed as the pantomine horse, plenty of them )
So what happens when this happens to California?
good question, I suspect it won't matter by that point. Now if you will excuse me I have to buy and hold some paper for about 0.0000000001 seconds.
I thought all you buy and hold guys had given up by now.
That made me chuckle.
Very good. Your screen name is always a pointed reminder that the current debacle did have a beginning, and a perpetrator; and we know who he was. Richard, "I am not a crook, " Nixon. But, He was.
Everyone gets a pony. I mean what do you expect? It's California fer gawd's sake.
FLMAO!
With 'Chicago Fed' saddlebags full of Skittles!
No crunches for me today. My stomach muscles are TOAST!
Everyone got a pony in Poland.
Poland (and the Czech Republic) are soooooo underrated, bitchez.
Some would even say they're more free market than the vaunted United States (I would).
Angela Merkel will fly to LA and offer German help.
She'll ask for Big Sur as collateral.
I'm betting she'll ask for the contents of some of the weapons storage bunkers out at China Lake.
I remember watching video of an appearance of two Russian, nee. Soviet, men in a special New York Court for Customs Matters; One was an oficial and the other one was his attorney/translator. The Female Judge wrapped up by saying, "So, let me see; you want to trade big space rockets for hot dogs, right?", the two Russians conferred and then replied, "Da". They didn't have anything to eat and they didn't need the World's biggest missiles anymore, they needed hot dogs. Very interesting what happens in real life sometimes.
Arizona Bay?
Learn to swim
Shit, I'm in CA. Long arm floats & water noodles!
Backed by the US bonds they found in Zurich.
What he said.
This means more profits for the ECB
They sold too soon, Bob.
Now they are kicking themselves -- made only 500%, when they could have got 600%.
Let's not make this mistake with AAPL, eh!
Verticle markets have narrow doorways.
Vertical markets have narrow doorways. Some has to close the hatch on the U-BOAT.
Vertical markets have narrow doorways. Some has to close the hatch on the U-BOAT.
What date is the bank run?
March 20
That's March 20 for ZH'ers. I'd give it a week or two before the sheeple stampede the banks. And that is IF there is no bank holiday. Man, will that be a real deer-in-the-headlights moment for J6P.
What little cash I keep in the banks will be withdrawn at the first default or bank closure. And then I'll start popping the corn...
REAL ZHers say:
"Banks, we don't need no banks, we don't need no stinking banks!".
does that mean it's all over??
Wow I'm buying some of that!
You promise they'll pay though, right? They'll pay me back for sure right?
1:6 risk reward is not bad for a binary event. be a holdout and see
No, No, No. You don't understand. Bonds are a subject; you haven't studied this subject. The Bond itself is a beautifully printed piece of paper that says, for instance, face value 10,000Euro. The calculation quoted here on the blog means that the market for this instruments, these Bonds, is about 1500Euros. They trade back and forth in a market, like used cars. What the calculation of %629 interest is telling you, or telling all persons who are literate in Bonds, who "speak" Bond, is that NO; you definetely will not get paid back. The "haircut" that they keep referring to is the proposal to issue a Fiat declaration that the Bonds are now 5,000E. instruments, or 2500E. instruments; or whatever. The possibilities are that you will get some Euros back; possibly more than you paid for the thing; or that they will default and you will get nothing. There is a zero percent possibility that you will collect %400, or %600 or anything like that; that is merely a calculation that indicates the mood of the market in these instruments. I hope this helps.
Kind of looks like the US debt chart if you compress it.
Why is it that debt based curves always end up looking like exponential functions?
Oh wait, that's right, cause they are!
pods
Load up! We will never have such an opportunity to get rich quick as this now presents itself. There is no way they will let Greece default, the motto is "No Piig Left Behind!"
A once in a lifetime opportunity!
:dancingbananas:
Like bacon and eggs - the ECB's eggs involved.. but the PIIGS are committed.
i rather have the Chicago Fed Bonds
One cartel's counterfeit security is another's collateral.
Think about it.
Oh, i see, they default on the OLD bonds.
Got it.
Can a nigga get a tabledance.
That is just unreal, in every sense of the word.
The second chart at the end reminds me of John Travolta in Staying Alive with the finger thing.
It's the perfect picture of what I try to explain to people. Most every system exhibits a pendulum-like behavior over time as the action/reaction cycle creates the whole idea of reversion to the mean, along with over-shooting it. In absence of additional energy, the swings within the system dampen down as the corrections of the past work ever closer to the mean. Once the mean is able to be maintained, the system is once again stabilized.
But in our financial system, there can be no let up in energy added, causing the system itself to grow ever more chaotic as the mean is overshot farther and farther with each reaction. Eventually the system itself cannot withstand the stresses of both the increased amplitude, and it's resulting reversal of this larger inertia.
Then once I've lost people with this explanation (gotta work on the brevity), I go back to the idea of a physical pendulum, and ask them what happens if you push harder on each and every reversal. Why the pendulum will break, of course, and so will any other system with pendulum-like behavior.
The second chart is a mistake, it's actually a seismograph of a new volcano about to erupt in Syntagma Square.
Gold and silver bitchez! This is no time to believe in the power of positive thinking!
Weird day for commodities:
gold/silver down
natural gas spiking up
copper down
Weird.
Weird is the new normal.
Central planning and falsehoods are real the new normal.
Just think, the Iraqi Information Minister was a little before his time.
With his skills, he could be making millions of ever-more-worthless fiat currency in this era of history!
Pay no attention to the bankrupt European State behind the curtain!
NOTHING to see here. Just move along everybody.
629% slightly better then my high yield 0.09% acct ....mmmmm
http://www.crossfitnewmarket.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/Funny-Pig.jpg
See how valuable the FDIC is?
Not sure what your intent was; but I had to chuckle at that one; and a chuckle is good on Friday Afternoon, Cheers.
Any bets on this reaching 875%?
I'm all in at 629%
Ha! to all the suckers only getting 100%
Might as well let it go to a 1000% at this point...
I'll take that action........do you take dracma?
Yeah and it's offered where, 4% ???
Very nice yield. I am all in. :)
Greek bonds are fast becoming the sovereign version of PowerBall tickects.
Well, other than the random odds thing.
Stick a fork in them. They're done! Especially with the good newa coming out of Iceland. Why wouldn't you default?
And someone just robbed their museum.
... someone with a German last name!
Bullshittish. The sky is the limit.
Get the doctor I think I'm gonna crash
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tcXblWojdM
Anyone who thinks 629% is the end isn't reading the tea leaves. Is anyone stopping to reflect on what this world is coming to? 629%?
Default on Monday at 666%
The incredible shrinking GGB. I think I'll wait till April to pick up one or two for $1.99 on ebay.
629% On 1 year bonds? Brethern, We Are Saved!
I always wanted to get rich - back up the truck.
These are soverign bonds, too! Boy, in a year from now I'm gonna be rich!
Backed up by the whole Euro zone, too.
What could possibly go wrong?
I suppose if I bought this and someone owes me 600% today, why bother?
I rather wait until it hits 1000% and then make a move yah?
LEOOOOOOOOOOOOO !!!!!!!!!!!
To get a 629% return the $1,000 bond is trading about $137. If they are talking a 75% haircut, then it is likely the bond will payoff only $250 not the $1,000. So still room to get over 80% yield on your $137. But, I figure the market is also pricing so your expected return is only 20%. So for the math to roughly work the market is saying something like the odds are 65% you get your $250 in a year and 35% that you get $0.
No way anyone is getting 629% on these bonds!
That;s correct. I hope everyone who doesn't understand reads your post; no-one will get %600, or %500, or %400; this will not happen. When I say this; I am not speculating, this is not an opinion; this is the way the thing works. The calculation is a statement to the effect that, "Gee, we don't have much faith in these Bonds"; but it is not an attempt at an actual calculation of a possible yield.
Silver could be over $200/oz in a years time. That's what I'm scrounging for. It could happen. You never know.