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Greek 1 Year At 629%, Biggest One Day Jump In Yield Ever

Tyler Durden's picture


Ze Price Stabeeleetee...

One day yield moves. Self explanatory:

charts via BBG


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Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:08 | 2170470 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Thank God (with capital G) that the ECB got out in the nick of time:)

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:16 | 2170546 machineh
machineh's picture

'We're alright, Jack -- shame about all you newly-minted SUBORDINATEES. God's mercy on you swine!'

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:50 | 2170992 trav7777
trav7777's picture is the par now?  .000001?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 20:04 | 2171882 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Poor Leo.  At least he still has his Chineee Solahs.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:32 | 2170571 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture



Which is exactly why there will be no default. The PTB will simply not let those kind of profits go un-realized.

Print.., print.., print, the little people pay!

BTW..., is a 75% haircut inclusive of the returns on interest, or just the principle? Because a 75% haircut on a 629% profit ain't bad. I'd buy that for a dollar!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:39 | 2170653 Conman
Conman's picture

Even if it is principle, 75% off the principle * 629% interest is still very profitable. Where do i buy?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:00 | 2170773 bobola
bobola's picture

Baltic Dry index is dropping again - at 723 right now.

With the 1 year Greek bond quickly heading north again, we could see these 2 intersect near 700.

We live in interesting times.......

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:06 | 2170809 ChitownTrader
ChitownTrader's picture


too bad the baltic dry means nothing anymore, well I guess Greece doesn't either

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:14 | 2170852 NewThor
NewThor's picture

I'd forgive Ben Bernanke if he found a way to print hot women that made sound choices.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:23 | 2170890 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The irony that Greece was known for its outsized (relative to GDP) shipping industry, or that Jackie O was remarried to Aristotle Onassis, a Greek shipping magnate, after the jackals of fractional reserve deeds whacked JFK.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:50 | 2170993 trav7777
trav7777's picture

she needed dick with a fat ass wallet...bitch like that wasn't going to be buying off the rack and flying coach

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:36 | 2170938 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

nothin from nothing leaves.... bullish! on to 1450!!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:08 | 2170819 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

As long as someone is buying, even at 629%, they will keep selling. It's not like they ever intend to pay it back.

As a black man once told me, it's not "Debt", if you never intend to pay the bill.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:36 | 2170940 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Was the color of the man pertinent?  C'mon.....

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:10 | 2170484 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Makes the good old days of 400% yield just two months ago look ordinary.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:13 | 2170519 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Oh those were the days indeed! Warm, fuzzy memories.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2170559 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Greece is now a penny stock.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:31 | 2170622 combatsnoopy
combatsnoopy's picture

OTC, pink sheets.  About to be acquired by Bain Capital who will drain them for bankruptcy fees. 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:08 | 2170806 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Greece is now owned, lock, stock & barrel, by The Money Masters.


They now are on to their next targets, more nations that formerly collectively believed they were democratic, free & sovereign.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:26 | 2170603 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

400%?  It was under 100% last summer.  If Mother Fucking Global went under a few months ago I wonder how ASSGEN is holding up?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:10 | 2170489 user2011
user2011's picture

Please help me to understand this.   For 600% a year.  If I buy the bond and flip it the next day, I will have close to 2 % gain.   Am I right ?


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:13 | 2170504 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Not really.   Who or what is going to pay your interest?   How much will you be able to sell it for tomorrow?  Who will buy it?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:20 | 2170572 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Musical chairs for keeps, bitchez.  Music's still playin' - are you in?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:12 | 2170512 zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

Or does  one have to hold them 1 year?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:16 | 2170520 Ex-Pat
Ex-Pat's picture

Maybe you will not collect the yield and then tomorrow, nobody will buy the bond that you try to sell for a 2% loss in price per day.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:15 | 2170539 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

You get 600% if you hold them to maturity and they get repaid in full.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:19 | 2170566 blu
blu's picture

Lotta "ifs" in there. Oh and you should have mentioned, you might get paid in Drachmas at some unknown rate of exchange against the original Euros. Or maybe even, paid in ripe olives at the warehouse in Athens, you ship. This could end up anywhere.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:14 | 2170844 Clampit
Clampit's picture


Would Drachma's count as a credit event?

Sounds like a nice insurance product - either I loose the money and get to enjoy watching a credit event, or the perpetual motion can defys all odds and I suffer with 6x the euros in my pocket ... I'd have said sign me up long ago if I even vaguely trusted this was the deal at hand.


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 17:24 | 2171425 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

I believe ISDA already has demonstrated that the concept of a credit event has a fluid definition at best

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:21 | 2170580 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:07 | 2170817 NewThor
NewThor's picture

What was the bond yield at 1 year ago? Do those people get paid today?

Sat, 02/18/2012 - 02:38 | 2172449 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

At some point in the last year, the 1 year went from about 5% to about 40% - it depends on whether you got in on that move - but there seems to be a gap in the chart - were the Greek 1 years selling last spring - or did they shut them down for a while?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:27 | 2170896 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Minor quibble:

You only get 600% if you hold them to maturity and get repaid in full and the € retains its relative value until that time.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:33 | 2170920 Curtis LeMay
Curtis LeMay's picture

LMAO. Sorta like going to the track and blowing the rent money on a "sure thing"...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 19:41 | 2171834 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

There is a Tier 2 open market for trading Bonds in the US. I honestly don't know if the same exists for Greek Bonds

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:34 | 2170631 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Please help me to understand this.   For 600% a year.  If I buy the bond and flip it the next day, I will have close to 2 % gain.   Am I right ?


I am sure some guy said the same thing last week when the yield was 400%.

Sat, 02/18/2012 - 07:41 | 2172624 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I meant to tell him earlier that if buys the bond with a coupon of 600% and flips it the next day, he could theoretically have close to a 2% (or 600%) loss, depending on whether Greece a) imposes haircuts on creditors (with the EU's blessing), b) gets bailed out and stays in the EU, c) decides, along with the EU, on some other hybrid or variant plan.

These are lottery tickets, plain and simple. But they don't represent the black & white calculus of winning or losing that lottery tickets do.

These bonds are riddled with possibilities.

Sat, 02/18/2012 - 02:10 | 2172431 chindit13
chindit13's picture

It's a complex formula, but the key part is "imputed interest".  Greeks no longer impute.  Implode and imperil and "imbarrass" maybe, but impute, no.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:10 | 2170496 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Where is my fucking blue pill?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:16 | 2170543 john39
john39's picture


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:12 | 2170507 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

Anyone remember when Leo told us these were a screaming buy with a 7% coupon?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:17 | 2170549 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

I can still hear the screaming. But soon the lamb will go silent.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2170554 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

I miss Ignatius.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:16 | 2170859 green888
green888's picture

I miss Incatatus (but maybe he is dressed as the pantomine horse, plenty of them )

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:12 | 2170508 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

So what happens when this happens to California?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:15 | 2170532 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

good question, I suspect it won't matter by that point.  Now if you will excuse me I have to buy and hold some paper for about 0.0000000001 seconds.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:57 | 2170761 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

I thought all you buy and hold guys had given up by now.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:37 | 2170942 tmosley
tmosley's picture

That made me chuckle.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 21:37 | 2172047 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Very good. Your screen name is always a pointed reminder that the current debacle did have a beginning, and a perpetrator; and we know who he was. Richard, "I am not a crook, " Nixon. But, He was.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:15 | 2170541 blu
blu's picture

Everyone gets a pony. I mean what do you expect? It's California fer gawd's sake.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:21 | 2170576 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:26 | 2170604 machineh
machineh's picture

With 'Chicago Fed' saddlebags full of Skittles!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:52 | 2170733 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

No crunches for me today. My stomach muscles are TOAST!

Sat, 02/18/2012 - 07:43 | 2172625 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Everyone got a pony in Poland.

Poland (and the Czech Republic) are soooooo underrated, bitchez.

Some would even say they're more free market than the vaunted United States (I would).

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2170552 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

Angela Merkel will fly to LA and offer German help.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:06 | 2170805 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

She'll ask for Big Sur as collateral.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 19:17 | 2171773 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

I'm betting she'll ask for the contents of some of the weapons storage bunkers out at China Lake.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 21:42 | 2172052 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I remember watching video of an appearance of two Russian, nee. Soviet, men in a special New York Court for Customs Matters; One was an oficial and the other one was his attorney/translator. The Female Judge wrapped up by saying, "So, let me see; you want to trade big space rockets for hot dogs, right?", the two Russians conferred and then replied, "Da". They didn't have anything to eat and they didn't need the World's biggest missiles anymore, they needed hot dogs. Very interesting what happens in real life sometimes.


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:46 | 2170691 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

So what happens when this happens to California?

Arizona Bay?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:06 | 2170811 Dr.Vannostrand
Dr.Vannostrand's picture

Learn to swim

Shit, I'm in CA. Long arm floats & water noodles!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:12 | 2170510 stickyfingers
stickyfingers's picture

Backed by the US bonds they found in Zurich.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:15 | 2170530 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

What he said.  

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:13 | 2170521 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

This means more profits for the ECB

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:29 | 2170617 machineh
machineh's picture

They sold too soon, Bob.

Now they are kicking themselves -- made only 500%, when they could have got 600%.

Let's not make this mistake with AAPL, eh!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:00 | 2170774 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Verticle markets have narrow doorways.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:01 | 2170782 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Vertical markets have narrow doorways. Some has to close the hatch on the U-BOAT.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:02 | 2170787 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Vertical markets have narrow doorways. Some has to close the hatch on the U-BOAT.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:14 | 2170522 The 100 Trillio...
The 100 Trillion Dollar Man's picture

What date is the bank run?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2170556 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

March 20

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:52 | 2170731 s2man
s2man's picture

That's March 20 for ZH'ers.  I'd give it a week or two before the sheeple stampede the banks.  And that is IF there is no bank holiday.  Man, will that be a real deer-in-the-headlights moment for J6P.

What little cash I keep in the banks will be withdrawn at the first default or bank closure.  And then I'll start popping the corn...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 19:21 | 2171783 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

REAL ZHers say:

"Banks, we don't need no banks, we don't need no stinking banks!".

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:14 | 2170527 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

does that mean it's all over??


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:14 | 2170529 blu
blu's picture

Wow I'm buying some of that!

You promise they'll pay though, right? They'll pay me back for sure right?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:22 | 2170584 radicall
radicall's picture

1:6 risk reward is not bad for a binary event. be a holdout and see

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 21:55 | 2172080 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

No, No, No. You don't understand. Bonds are a subject; you haven't studied this subject. The Bond itself is a beautifully printed piece of paper that says, for instance, face value 10,000Euro. The calculation quoted here on the blog means that the market for this instruments, these Bonds, is about 1500Euros. They trade back and forth in a market, like used cars. What the calculation of %629 interest is telling you, or telling all persons who are literate in Bonds, who "speak" Bond, is that NO; you definetely will not get paid back. The "haircut" that they keep referring to is the proposal to issue a Fiat declaration that the Bonds are now 5,000E. instruments, or 2500E. instruments; or whatever. The possibilities are that you will get some Euros back; possibly more than you paid for the thing; or that they will default and you will get nothing. There is a zero percent possibility that you will collect %400, or %600 or anything like that; that is merely a calculation that indicates the mood of the market in these instruments. I hope this helps.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:15 | 2170533 pods
pods's picture

Kind of looks like the US debt chart if you compress it.  

Why is it that debt based curves always end up looking like exponential functions?

Oh wait, that's right, cause they are!


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:15 | 2170535 Bluntly Put
Bluntly Put's picture

Load up! We will never have such an opportunity to get rich quick as this now presents itself. There is no way they will let Greece default, the motto is "No Piig Left Behind!"

A once in a lifetime opportunity!


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:16 | 2170544 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Like bacon and eggs - the ECB's eggs involved.. but the PIIGS are committed.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:16 | 2170545 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

i rather have the Chicago Fed Bonds

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:21 | 2170582 Bluntly Put
Bluntly Put's picture

One cartel's counterfeit security is another's collateral.

Think about it.



Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2170553 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Oh, i see, they default on the OLD bonds.

Got it.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2170555 hotkarlandthecl...
hotkarlandtheclevelandsteamers's picture

Can a nigga get a tabledance.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2170561 RSloane
RSloane's picture

That is just unreal, in every sense of the word.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2170562 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

The second chart at the end reminds me of John Travolta in Staying Alive with the finger thing. 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:39 | 2170651 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

It's the perfect picture of what I try to explain to people. Most every system exhibits a pendulum-like behavior over time as the action/reaction cycle creates the whole idea of reversion to the mean, along with over-shooting it. In absence of additional energy, the swings within the system dampen down as the corrections of the past work ever closer to the mean. Once the mean is able to be maintained, the system is once again stabilized.

But in our financial system, there can be no let up in energy added, causing the system itself to grow ever more chaotic as the mean is overshot farther and farther with each reaction. Eventually the system itself cannot withstand the stresses of both the increased amplitude, and it's resulting reversal of this larger inertia.

Then once I've lost people with this explanation (gotta work on the brevity), I go back to the idea of a physical pendulum, and ask them what happens if you push harder on each and every reversal. Why the pendulum will break, of course, and so will any other system with pendulum-like behavior.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:50 | 2170723 smiler03
smiler03's picture

The second chart is a mistake, it's actually a seismograph of a new volcano about to erupt in Syntagma Square.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:18 | 2170563 pan
pan's picture

Gold and silver bitchez!  This is no time to believe in the power of positive thinking!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:28 | 2170613 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Weird day for commodities:

gold/silver down

natural gas spiking up

copper down


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:57 | 2170757 s2man
s2man's picture

Weird is the new normal.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:12 | 2170837 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Central planning and falsehoods are real the new normal.

Just think, the Iraqi Information Minister was a little before his time. 

With his skills, he could be making millions of ever-more-worthless fiat currency in this era of history!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:21 | 2170577 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Pay no attention to the bankrupt European State behind the curtain!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:23 | 2170588 xela2200
xela2200's picture

NOTHING to see here. Just move along everybody.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:28 | 2170615 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

629% slightly better then my high yield 0.09% acct ....mmmmm

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:41 | 2170658 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

See how valuable the FDIC is?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 22:00 | 2172093 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Not sure what your intent was; but I had to chuckle at that one; and a chuckle is good on Friday Afternoon, Cheers.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:29 | 2170618 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Any bets on this reaching 875%?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:31 | 2170624 daxtonbrown
daxtonbrown's picture

I'm all in at 629%

Ha! to all the suckers only getting 100%

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:33 | 2170628 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Might as well let it go to a 1000% at this point...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:37 | 2170640 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

I'll take that you take dracma?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:34 | 2170630 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Yeah and it's offered where, 4% ???

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:36 | 2170638 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Very nice yield. I am all in. :)

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:42 | 2170668 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Greek bonds are fast becoming the sovereign version of PowerBall tickects.

Well, other than the random odds thing.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 14:48 | 2170704 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

Stick a fork in them. They're done! Especially with the good newa coming out of Iceland. Why wouldn't you default?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:12 | 2170835 surf0766
surf0766's picture

And someone just robbed their museum.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:46 | 2170976 shutdown
shutdown's picture



... someone with a German last name! 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:06 | 2170808 turtle777
turtle777's picture

Bullshittish. The sky is the limit.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:07 | 2170818 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Get the doctor I think I'm gonna crash

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:10 | 2170823 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Anyone who thinks 629% is the end isn't reading the tea leaves. Is anyone stopping to reflect on what this world is coming to? 629%?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 16:01 | 2171051 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

Default on Monday at 666%

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:12 | 2170840 Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

The incredible shrinking GGB. I think I'll wait till April to pick up one or two for $1.99 on ebay.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:16 | 2170857 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

629% On 1 year bonds? Brethern, We Are Saved!

I always wanted to get rich - back up the truck.

These are soverign bonds, too! Boy, in a year from now I'm gonna be rich!

Backed up by the whole Euro zone, too.


What could possibly go wrong? 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:20 | 2170874 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I suppose if I bought this and someone owes me 600% today, why bother?

I rather wait until it hits 1000% and then make a move yah?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 15:42 | 2170964 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 20:32 | 2171930 Finance Bandit
Finance Bandit's picture

To get a 629% return the $1,000 bond is trading about $137. If they are talking a 75% haircut, then it is likely the bond will payoff only $250 not the $1,000. So still room to get over 80% yield on your $137.  But, I figure the market is also pricing so your expected return is only 20%. So for the math to roughly work the market is saying something like the odds are 65% you get your $250 in a year and 35% that you get $0. 

No way anyone is getting 629% on these bonds!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 22:05 | 2172101 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

That;s correct. I hope everyone who doesn't understand reads your post; no-one will get %600, or %500, or %400; this will not happen. When I say this; I am not speculating, this is not an opinion; this is the way the thing works. The calculation is a statement to the effect that, "Gee, we don't have much faith in these Bonds"; but it is not an attempt at an actual calculation of a possible yield.

Sat, 02/18/2012 - 03:17 | 2172489 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

Silver could be over $200/oz in a years time.  That's what I'm scrounging for.  It could happen.  You never know.

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