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Greek 13-Week Cash-(Out)Flow Forecast

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As G-Pap faces the wrath of every long-only-manager, European leader, and sell-side equity strategist, by giving 'we-the-people' their say, we thought it potentially instructive to look at what the Greeks face over the next three months. As with every bankrupt company, we outline the 13-week forecast for cash-flows, specifically focused on what interest and principal payments are due to the end of January. Greece faces almost EUR20bn in interest and principal payments through the end of Jan2012, dominated by EUR12.2bn in payments in December alone with the last week of the year a huge EUR8.9bn!! It does make us wonder just how much leeway the Troika is willing to give if they don't follow the rules.

 


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Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:07 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Obviously this translates in the DJI being up 200 points.

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I think it translates to G-spot being a mere Pap smear in the history books.

Between Shipping and Olive Oil and Two-rism, one would think Greece would be fine no? no?

Used to be a time nation's were mostly self sudfficient. Now we've al been iMF'd.

Privatization, FTW. Flows from Banks Block Current Seas!

ORI

Toroidal Vortices and Stillness

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:41 | Link to Comment Rome is burining
Rome is burining's picture

But for having big banks and a government that can't control it's spending, your correct.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:17 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, I guess they have to pump for the dump later.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:11 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

will this effect the percentage of alcohol in ouzo?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:12 | Link to Comment Ancona
Ancona's picture

No, it will only affect the total quantity of ouzo being consumed......geometrically of course.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:11 | Link to Comment HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Have fun at Christmas boys and girls, because we face the slaughterhouse just days afterward.

Wh owants to buy Greek debt on 29 December with a 500% annual return?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:14 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

I hope the Troica is not giving them any more money....but I am stupid...I just buy gold and silver...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:18 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Greece is toast and a non issue. What is the issue is to create a firewall that shakes out of Euro zone all the small fry to protect Italy and Spain sovereign bunga-bunga from creating Banksta contagion, true financial armageddon trigger world wide. First line of final defense. The three small Pigs can go die outside eurzone, their sort is now sealed. EU will now reconfigure in concentric rings, around Germany/FR/Ho/BE/LuX/AUS/It/SP core. Then a second tier involving all those in second division euro pegged ring. Then another ring of non Euro pegged EU members. Three concentric rings or something to this effect. 

They now have no other choice then to break down current Euro construct; can they achieve it before the shit hits the fan in contagion backwardation? 

Your guess as good as mine. Anyway, they are going to head that way into the fog of 2012. Good luck to Euro dream -on runaway train, Istanbul train without a brake and no driver.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:39 | Link to Comment tim73
tim73's picture

Italy is ok, most of the debt is like Japan, owned by domestic players. The real question is France. I'd say France will go alone rather than Italy but the rest of eurozone will stay intact. Greece could go either way.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Just do the right thing, save your money  and default. There will be financing later then you can default again.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:15 | Link to Comment au_bayitch
au_bayitch's picture

When someone owes me money, I want paid. So no, it does not make me wonder what their circumstances are. Just pay me.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Business bad? Fu*k you, pay me. Oh, you had a fire? Fu*k you, pay me. Place got hit by lightning, huh? Fu*k you, pay me.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Christophe2
Christophe2's picture

When someone makes a dumb loan and then bitches aboud the other party defaulting, I laugh.  When they continue their self-centered 'I want'/'I am owed' speech, I laugh harder.

 

The Greek debacle is a story of two sides trying to take unscrupulous advantage of one another, and as recent events clearly demonstrate (massive riots, etc.), it wasn't the Greek PEOPLE who were in control at any point in time, hence the debt is ODIOUS.

 

FUCK YOU IMF, BIS, EU and insolvent banks: just go bankrupt.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:21 | Link to Comment tim73
tim73's picture

As a Finn I would say and about two vodka bottles after, WE SHOULD INVADE THE PLACE! The place is in ruins anyway! So few bullets holes here and there, nobody would even notice!

Houses not btw completed (evading the real-estate tax), marinas not completed (EU fund fraud). And our fellow komrades Germans are as always with us :) You Greeks stay in Euro or you cry and stay in Euro. Or we will sell you to Turks. Your MOVE!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:29 | Link to Comment wang (not verified)
Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:24 | Link to Comment wang (not verified)
Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:27 | Link to Comment jubber
jubber's picture

2y Greek Bonds just hit 96.72% so obviously there is no problem

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:09 | Link to Comment defn8Dog
defn8Dog's picture

Don't forget the 1y GGGB, trading at 28 cents on the dollar and the fact that the master plan doesn't allow the ECB to mark all the trash they've purchased down to market.  That won't be a problem, either.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:28 | Link to Comment RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

      I ain't got the money for the mortgage on the farm.

      Why ain't cha got the money for the mortgage on the farm?

      'Cause I ain't got the money for the mortgage on the farm!

      Then we're gonna tie you to the raaailroad tracks.........!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:29 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

CVA desks to keep buying sovereign CDSs – even if they never pay out
Even if CDS contracts are not triggered in Greek restructuring, Basel III's CVA charge ensures the market will live on - but episode raises fresh questions about design of capital framework, dealers...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:35 | Link to Comment valuetrader
valuetrader's picture

I remember somebody else known by his first name Tim was counting his last pennies like that a couple of months ago ...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Segestan
Segestan's picture

Greece may need to do as the east has done and involk religion(sarc) in the name of public order.. The only real difference between Greece and Turkey ... one nation uses Fiat to control, that tool now lost,  the other involks religious idealism, still being enforced( sic).. Seriously... if Greece can tell the EU to Fuck Off and get away with it, more power to them.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 11:39 | Link to Comment valuetrader
valuetrader's picture

There is a new joke.

Two Greeks meet and start talking about things. The first says ''Bad stuff, somebody will have to work now.''. The second answers ''Yes, but who would that be?''. The first Greek has the answer ''Why, the Germans of course.''.

 

Actually, that I think about it, it is not new. This has been going on for years.

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 12:12 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Oooh boy, we're saved....?  RAN Squawk:

Greek government has sufficient cash to last until December, new taxes helped boost Greek cash reserves according to a source

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 13:38 | Link to Comment skistroni
skistroni's picture

Greek government can fantasize as much as they want about finding money, it's the Greek people that won't have any left until then. 

In September, about 30% of the families in Greece had to pay out of their thin reserves to survive (mostly unemployed and low-pension people).

In October, 99% of the familes had to do that (thanks to extra urgent property taxation, extra urgent free-lancers taxation, extra-urgent double tax on last years' income, and back-dated salary withholdings).

Don't know if you get that, but currently we are actually PAYING to be able to work and live in our own country. 

 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 14:52 | Link to Comment socratesplus
socratesplus's picture

quote from imf:  The board would not want to give money to Greece and then wonder what will happen [...] The board will want comfort that Greece will fulfil its commitments and right now Papandreou is unable to give that.

The sooner Greece holds the referendum, the sooner the sixth tranche will be paid. But right now, it isn't going to be paid.

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