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Greek Bank Run Update: €100-€500 Million Per Day
Five days ahead of the Greek parliamentary re-vote, the media propaganda machine has gone mute due to the moratorium on the RAND() known as popular polling: forgotten are the days when Syriza' popularity rating would swing from -100 to +100 in the span of hours, Diebold notwithstanding. Which leaves the media machine just one tactic: updates on the economic collapse as a tacit suggestion of what may happen if situation is not fixed. And while at this point it is nearly impossible to distinguish propaganda from fact, the latest numbers out of Kathimerini are just stunning. As Bloomberg's Marcus Bensasson reports, citing Kathimerini, the Greek banking system has continued to hemorrhage deposits this month, amid uncertainty over the outcome of elections on June 17. "Many people are putting money in shares of mutual funds denominated in dollars because of the bureaucratic difficulty of taking money out of Greece, or are keeping cash at home, the newspaper said." How much? "Deposits are leaving the banking system at a rate of 100 million to 500 million euros ($125 million to $625 million) a day, Kathimerini said, without specifying over how long a period that rate of outflow has continued."
Considering that the Greece banking system has about €170 billion in total deposits, this is roughly 0.3% of the entire deposit base fleeing each day - those who understand the nuances of fractional reserve banking get why this could be an issue.
Putting this in the US context, which has over $8 trillion in various forms of deposits, this would be equivalents to about $25 billion getting withdrawn. Every day.
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Short French banks
Specially Credit Agricole with Exposure to Emporiki
if you short Credit Agricole you long Paribas; thats how it works! Its called french cheese, a little stinky but then thats banksta union, it points like that gun ZH displayed.
The problem of BNP, estimated Falak...
is their exposure to Italian Bonds. > 30.000 Mn Euros.
Thats why i dont like BNP.
* ACA FP EQUITY will be nationalized like Bankia
and BNP will suffer to raise capital.
Agree in relative terms better shape BNP rather than ACA, or SOCGEN or Credit Mutuel, Natixis.
Purely relative at this point.
Which pile of shit is steaming more.
BNP has a "asset" structure evaluated at book value of 2.5 T Euros. If you assume mark to market devalues its "assets" by 20%; something that RM pointed to way back in 2011, the write off would be 500 billion euros. That was before the shit hit Spain n Italy. I don't know if in the meantime BNP has unloaded its toxic stuff in club med sovereign debt, as has been the interim rule dictated by Merkozy. I'm sure they've used every trick in the game to do so. But 500B toxic assets is one big pile of dirt! And this is just ONE french bank. We froggies will get badly grilled when ALL four big boys; BNP, CA, Socgen, Ban Pop, mark to market! Oh, la la, nationalisation will be painful game.
Dummies guide to what went wrong in Europe
Helga is the proprietor of a bar. She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.
http://www.webcompact.net/index.php/news/33665-dummies-guide-to-what-went-wrong-in-europe
Enjoyed that. T'anks.
Good read, got the wife to read it...that'splains it all!
You better believe that money's going to tax havens.
But but but yesterday SocGen confirmed CA as a "buy", price target within 12 months 4 euro (+25 percent).
The Swiss 1000-franc notes look prettier than ever
What we Europeans are holding as well as our quiet stashes of gold
http://www.snb.ch/en/iabout/cash/current/design/id/cash_current_design_1000
Backed by nothing, ultimately they're just coloured pieces of paper as well.
I'd rather own a Alberto Giacommeti sculpture than this worthless CHF 100 paper with his head on it.
I like the vertical format. It's the loveliest fiat I've seen. Almost mesmerizing. I guess that's the idea.
These 'specimen' look like the cast of a 1950's theatre troop.
"Allow me to place my eyeglasses, my vision is ruined from years of crunching economics." says monsieure Ten Franc.
They're all the same width, but are longer based on value!?!
Damn people really want those Spiderman towels I see....
"Which leaves the media machine just one tactic: updates on the economic collapse as a tacit suggestion of what may happen if situation is not fixed."
Er, 'The Collapse' is 'The Fix'
...let the media machine re-arrange the deckchairs all they like
It's all designed to get the people to agree to a political union (increasing federalized power). That's been the goal from the start IMO. It's also why a "globero" or one world currency is anathema.
www.pmbug.com
well at least the Greeks are showing with bank withdrawels how effective the EC/EU/ECB have been with the Stress Tests and bailouts at "restoring confidence"
and their next act for restoring confidence, restricting peoples access to their own money
the European Union just doesn't get any better than this
about time
National Bank of Italy just put in place a banking holiday thru July...
It's on their website if any one cn read Italian.
Link please. I've searched all over the bancaditalia.it and can find no mention of this.
Diplodicus Drudge has the story posted go read it there. There are some pissed off Italians posting in the comments about this as well. An excellent read.
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2...
Cordially,
TwoHoot
Thanks for all the replies.
Didn't they go bust a month ago?
ncrenegade had posted on their website yesterday and yes it was a few weeks ago. Tyler came on and posted that it was an orderly default...like the ones in the US that happen each month.
http://www.bancanetwork.it/content/sospensione-dei-pagamenti
Link is there. But is not National Bank of Italy, it is Banca Network Investimenti, must be a pretty small bank.
Deleted comment. I'm an idiot.
the supply of zeros is infinite in the public sector
just go to Davos, there's loads more there too
(Update: you comment looked abs' fine to me!)
Haven't read your original comment, but anyone willing to admit being an occasional idiot deserves an up-vote and a reply. Lord knows, we've all been there at one point.
Cheers.
oh? I am constantly an idiot. saves me the fallacy of ever thinking that I am right.
:)
The surprising thing is that there are still people who haven't already taken their cash out of the Greek banks.
What the hell are they waiting for?
Well those people are the yuppies... they'll never take their money out. You have this kind of brainless morons in all countries... Hell I'm sure when that happens in the US, Obamabots or Romneybots (whoever is in the White House while it's happening) will let their money in the bank trusting their great president to fix it all...
Don't you know that pulling your money out of the bank is treason??
It has to be the second coming?
It's their normalcy bias. The thought of "crisis" throws them catatonic. Wolves like catatonic sheep.
It's their normalcy bias. The thought of "crisis" throws them catatonic
Very true! Step out in the non-ZH world and you will realise how a whole load of sheep (people) cannot even imagine for a second that the present system can collapse or go wrong!
The best you would get is, after a thoughtful pause, I guess what you say is possible .. but not here and not now.
I was telling a friend about the possible bank runs and financial collapse and he actually got mad at me for suggesting it, in his words there is not Housing collapse!
Then I put him down, like I would put down a moron (hit them where it hurts most... lol) and when he calmed down he was still going on about what a great deal he has on his mortgage and if he pays 100 bucks extra, he could get shorten his 30 year mortgage to 23 years!!
He did'nt like when I said, it sounds really good until the day, the house next to you would be going for 60K !!! ROFL
I've been reading ZH articles to my DH for the past year about how fucked the system is. He basically thinks I'm crazy. I ask him why he's not concerned about inflation/hyperinflation since history tells us odds are they'll print their way out of this crisis? He says "well my salary will be adjusted". I said "your savings will be worthless". He says "Well I'll save more". I tell him as an overpaid, underworked federal employee he's delusional to think he'll even have a job after the coming crisis. He said "oh no, I highly doubt they'll lay off anybody in our department". Talk about DENIAL! I must add he also laughs at me everytime I receive a new package to add to my "stack". We'll see who gets the last laugh...
I hope you have a prenup.
I got a big dose of this today dealing with a bunch of people oblivious to what's happening and immerged in escapism, and loving it. I couldn't bring myself to tell them about this stuff. Let them enjoy what remains, they aren't going to do anything anyway, and that's what they want. The blue pill people just keep rolling along with the illusions, they can't let it go, until it falls apart on its own, and even then they won't understand much of what happened, or why, a new bunch of pre-constructed illusions and myths will immediately capture their minds and take them over, and they'll go off in another direction.
The web of the 'known' has them by the throat, their only hope is in themselves.
The media spends their time trying to keep the sheeple convinced that things are not as bad as they seem. They'll also probably put out news to scare people off from taking their money our from banks, like news about people that had to much money at home and saw it stolen, or their gold was stollen and they got shot and other similar FUD.
People have no experience in their lifetimes of a bank-run. Most just think "Things will never come to that and if they do, I'll manage to get my money"
This is Greece: the average level of education of most people above the age of 40 is not so great - universal schooling is a modern concept. The vast majority of people have no understanding of financial maters. In fact, in most countries most people have little understanding of financial maters, otherwise our savings levels would be much higher.
For many things in modern city life you need to have some money in the bank: paying rent, paying water/electricity/gas bills and other large bills.
Lots of people don't have the sophistication or the money for doing things like opening Swiss Bank accounts or buying PMs in a financially-efficient way (i.e. bars and coins, not jewellery) - offline gold traders are not all that common nowadays and hard to find if you don't use the Net, plus most people don't really know if they can trust them and have no experience checking for the real deal.
What my friend has been telling me when I talk to him about this stuff...
``Well if it gets that bad, it won't matter anyway, I'll have bigger worries than losing my money...``...
They watch CNBC Europe. All is well. Geithner...................., Bernanke...............................,
No, they don't, they don't care to know what they have to say, they just see the images and that is sufficient to be reassured things are more or less in hand.
What the hell are they waiting for?
Those are the kind of people who would'nt know what to do, even when the crisis would hit. They are shocked and awed even before it has happened and would try to justify the predicament, rather than trying to escape it or manage it.
They are like the pet animals, after years of captivity, if you take them to an open jungle and set them free, they will still sit there refusing to break free.
There will always be people saying: I REALLY DIDN'T SEE THAT ONE COMMING!!
WHY DIDN'T ANYBODY GIVE ME A SIGN?!
GOD WHY!!!????
...
And even when Pigs would fly they still wouldn't have considered it a sign...
My father will never pull his money out ofthe market or a bank...according to him, everything is fine.
Its called a catch-22
Scenario 1 - Greece Exits, Euro Survives. If you took your money out, you win
Scenario 2 - Greece Exits, Euro Dies. If you took your money out, you lose.
Scenario 3 - Greece Stays, Euro Survives. If you took your money out, you win
Scenario 4 - Greece Stays, Euro Dies. If you took your money out, you lose
Its a timing issue. If the Euro explodes simultaneously for everyone, then after the mother of all bank holidays, the accounting gets done and people move on.
If Greece exits first and then the Euro blows up soon after, if you stuffed your mattress with now worthless Euros you're in a bind. See, Greece with its newly minted Drachmas doesnt have to honor it and Germany after putting capital controls in place on the border and airports can make it a bitch to trade them in for DMarks. Having a bunch of Greeks with bags full of Euros lining up on the roads to Germany and being told that theres a 1000 Euro limit in place should make for some amusing fare on CNBC.
NOW would be the time to swap out all of those useless Euros for silver and/or gold.
Or dollars or US bonds or Spiderman Towels. Anything but Euros (or anything pegged to it)
"Many people are putting money in shares of mutual funds denominated in dollars"
......this is how truly desperate Greece is...
I seriously doubt that "many" people are doing that in Greece. It implies a lot of trust that they don't have in their financial system. Trust a banking system, trust a Broker, and then trust a mutual fund company. Doesn't sound like modern Greek to me. Sounds more like a desperate PR attempt to get people back into the system.
its the reevaluation of value when everything you thought was valueable is in fact worthless.
"those who understand the nuances of fractional reserve banking get why this could be an issue."
Comedy gold
Fractional Reserve Banking motto: "he who panics first, panics best"
Amazing how slowly this train wreck is unfolding. More opportunities to arrange the deck chairs and the TBTFs to get "their" money out, I guess....
Gold.
Big changes coming in German position as Spain burns :
DER SPIEGEL: Merkel Is Now Preparing Germany For Huge Changes To Come - Business Insider
Too little and too late, judging by the markets. This should have happened in january 2009...when the Merkel dictat said just the opposite!
Anytime one references Business Insider, i automatically think a tad less of them.
It is like referencing TMZ.....
hey, news is news; thats from the horse's mouth. But ur right, pride and prejudice do go together!
You have a similiar situation setting up in the US. San Jose police and firefighters have an average pension of $96,500 per year. These guys retire in their early 50's and draw approx $3m in pension. Who among the taxpayers signed up for that? And Cali won't fail because Odickhead or Romney will bail them out with Federal money. So the private sector will work into their 70's and 80's to support them? Time for revolution is here
thats awesome pension funds; no wonder the biggest pension fund in the world is Calpers, all based on cali retirement pay from ex-bureaucrats!
I guess the Cali mantra is : if you work for private sector u better earn enuff to outperfom government by age 50! Or you're toast!
I love this,
My neocon friends can't see who the real socialists are...it's the local fuzz
Why are my property taxes $7000 a year? Ask the cop on the 25 foot sport fish at the dock with the "bad back" and 3 million dollar pension! They are the commies.
This is bull... they are making look like it's a ``new idea``... guess what folks, THAT WAS THE PLAN FROM DAY 1...
And in Spain, it's worse.
I hope these Greek people are really doing their homework on what banks to put their money in next.
How in the hell is physical still on sale? WTF?
Exactly. If not now what the hell are they waiting for?
The paper price is but an illusion. Physical in size is being picked-up at a higher price but at a value nonetheless.
Don't know. But what I do know is that lately every purchase of silver I've made, I had to wait at least a week for the delivery. And I buy only a few coins at a time.
And, naturally, gold and silver both just went vertical. Oh, well.
I have to think GOLD...the real metal is being bought all over the world...not just us Goldbugs here...but countries...cental banks...pensions..funds...wealty investors...to me everyone has to be buying....and getting it delivered......now having said that..the Comex is very very quiet...nothing is moving thru the dealers accounts....nothing....wierd......and the London markets are for SALE?????????.....
LME -> Ponzi consolidation exercise.
Paper markets are mostly for hedging physical and speculating. According to what Blythe said, we already know that if you store gold in a bank, they lay claim to it and hedge it to protect their claim to your gold. Your gold is on their balance sheet after all. LOL. Is pressure on paper a sign of physical buying in a corrupt banking system? I am willing to bet that it is. And I am willing to bet it will be rectified in a massive upwards move in the hedging price as miners and refiners stop hedging production due to the ability to rapidly move product off exchange at higher prices. If the paper hedging market serves no purpose to its main users, it won't see any hedging sales.
I spent every last zooro on feta and olives...best store of value in Greece!
Truth is the bank runs have spreaded beyond Greece into most of the countries in the Balkans. Due to involvement of the Greek banking sector (mainly Alpha and NBG) in other countries in the region, there's been quiet, but continuous bank runs since the first elections in Greece.
A tsunami, pulling the ocean back from the shore before impact comes to mind.
I sincerely hope millions have managed to get theirs out of the fire before it's too late.
Indeed, the tsunami will wash over the European powderkeg one more time and hopefully this time the water will keep it from blowing up...
The people there are fairly suspicious of banks and gubbermints, witnessing both hyperinflations and denominations in the past 20 years. The ominous sign these days is having a CB official making a press statement at least once per week that everything is ok with the banks. You don't get a better warning that something stinks!
They do indeed 'protest too much'.
Still on track for end of the month.
So THAT's where the money to bailout Spain came from...
A fiat is dying.... think how red hot those printing presses are
This has always happened in the crisis countries are slow in taking the right steps. It is normal for people and businesses want to protect their savings. Lack of confidence in their authorities, the delay in implementing a coherent and distrust genran power vacuum. The normal attitude is to withdraw their funds from institutions and carry more risk where there is less risk. These latter range from banks in other countries to their own homes. each day, the Greek crisis is closer to the situation experienced by Argentina. Review what happened there.
As I read it in Argentina, half the population became quasi-homeless.
http://www.vqronline.org/articles/2007/fall/garcia-white-train/
so greece will be forced to leave the euro-zone within the next 6 months. am i right? but still, those affected french and german banks can be rescued by the printing presses in frankfurt, eh?
Italians we are next let's go get that money.
At 10% fractional reserve, Greece banks can sustain ~33 days of 0.3%/day outflows before there is no money left in the banking system at all.
It's the third recession that's going to really tank everything. These first two seem bad, but they're just setting the scene for the Third Act. We're going to get a sharp crisis, a really massive panic, staggering bailouts, a sharp temporary statistical bounce, another recovery summer ... then it'll be ... the grinder.
If you are lucky it will just be the grinder. But unfortunately it will be the 20 year Japanese style grinder. Think Cuba after the USSR pulled the subsidies on oil. If there's something very important you need new now, and I don't mean large TV, or jacuzzi , maybe it's time to get it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17680904