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Greek Bank Run Update: Up To $1 Billion A Day Now
Yesterday, we did an update of the Greek bank jog, when noting that between €100-€500 million per day was being withdrawn from Greek banks based on Kathimerini reports. 24 hours later the jog has become a trot with the most recent estimate from Reuters now estimated at nearly double: "Combined daily deposit outflows from the major Greek banks have reached 500-800 million euros over the past few days, with the pace picking up as the election draws closer and rising noticeably on Tuesday, two bankers said." This is roughly $1 billion a day in the upper case, and a number that is approaching 0.5% of the entire documented €170 billion (now likely much less) deposit base.
Deposit outflows at smaller and medium sized banks were running at 10-30 million euros.
"This includes cash withdrawals, wire transfers and investments into money market funds, German Bunds, U.S. Treasuries and EIB bonds," said one banker, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Fears that Greece may have to quit the single currency and return to a weak drachma have fuelled a steady stream of withdrawals by companies and businesses alarmed at the prospect of seeing the value of their deposits cut sharply.
The result of the election, called after a previous vote in May failed to produce a government, remains too close to call, with the conservative New Democracy party running neck and neck with radical leftist SYRIZA.
Both groups say they want Greece to remain in the single currency but SYRIZA has pledged to scrap a 130 billion euro bailout agreement signed in March which has imposed some of the toughest austerity measures seen in Europe in decades.
At the daily rate of doubling the "estimate" by Friday the trot will be an all out sprting and Greece will be experiencing a $4 billion in outflows. We wonder which banks will have any cash left at that point.
How much of this is fact, and how much pre-election rumormongering to scare people from voting against Syriza remains to be seen. Due to the polling moratorium it is impossible to get any grasp of which is the most popular party in Greece currently, even if the polls that had been released had the accuracy of an Excel random number generator.
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ahhhh....money
ieee spectrum June issue dedicated to digital cash and money:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/magazine/
As they have always said in Greece:
"Bend over"
The thing that amazes me is that to this day, NOT A SINGLE GERMAN OFFICIAL has opologized for causing this mess. Germany's predatory lending promised retirees comfortable retirements and government workers secure and well paying jobs, and now Merkel is just heartlessly taking it all away.
Good for her!
Is anyone depositing Drachmas yet?
A billion today, a billion tomorrow.. pretty soon you’ll be talking real money.
Given the relative sizes of the US and Greece, this is equivalent to US depositors withdrawing $50-$100B per day from the banks. I'd say that is real money and a glimpse of what will happen in the US when the sheeple wake up.
MDB, you're falling off, homey. You've been a fantastic addition to the comments section, but the troll force is not with you lately.
MDB, Bravo once again you made me LOL and pee a little.
I love the way you like to spin the truth just like the MSM anyone with a half a brain will have boiling blood with this statement. You are the king of sarc!
“NOT A SINGLE GERMAN OFFICIAL has opologized for causing this mess.”
When we all know that its the banksters not the governments that should apologize.
And that’s how you spell apologize.
Who the hell has money in a Greek bank? My God. Do they need a CAT scan? My personal run on the bank would have been months ago.
I think has 3 causes:
1) Normalcy bias
2) Everybody thinks that his own country is better off
3) Small people has no choice
Thomas, I had the same question. Further, I am really surprised that there was still that much money left in the entire country. I used to think that the Greeks were being unfairly criticized but not now; they're too fucking lazy to even pull their own money out of a bank that they know is about to go bust. That's fucking lazy.
The Greek people have already taken their money out since last year. It is the companies that have to have accounts with which to operate their businesses especialy multinationals. And they are now taking all but their daily turnovers.
The idea is that Greeks are relatively well off with passbook savings accounts. They close their accounts and take the train to Dusseldorf and put the euros into a similar passbook account. All neat and tidy.
- A large number of Greeks have no money, in or out of any bank(s).
- Businesses with payrolls have little choice but to use local banks. Since most Greeks still have jobs (and presumably gain paychecks) there is a percentage of Greek funds that are bound to Greek banks.
- If funds are removed from bank accounts, where indeed do they go? A bank is a bank is a bank. Greek version today, UK bank tomorrow, China bank the next day. Believe it or not there is really nowhere to hide. If money is cash in a hole in the ground, the cash itself is worth little or nobody accepts it or whatever you can trade for it is useless. Money is 'too hot' or not hot enough.
We are all in uncharted territory.
i think that's why some say to exchange it for gold coins or bullion while one still can (while the bank account is still denominated in euros, pounds or renminbi, in your example). though the renminbi might outlast the dollar.
Wake up? That's what the medical weed is for...
A little perspective. That rate is peanuts compared to the 2008 run on Money Market Funds after Lehman failed. That run rate was $250B/hr and accelerating before the Fed declared a blanket guarantee.
Imagine you run a stress test for 1 week bank run scenario and your Central Bank Deposits (Assets) on your balance sheet is = Zegh'oooo
Checkmate
I'm getting mine out of Greece and depositing in my account at the Bank of Gono.
[IMG]http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/1589/kgrhqnrkeympue9bp0lq33y.jpg[/IMG]
"If you see a line in front of a bank, get in it."
El Erian, PIMCO
I believe Germany should apologize for not printing a 1000 Euro bill, so that the poor Greeks can take less trips to the ATM.
You can buy 1000 CHF bills if you need...
Or gold CHF
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vreneli
I find it disheartening that none of the Core Europe countries have started an aggressive "Buy more Feta! Buy more Rioja!" campaign. It's their duty to buy as many products from their southern neighbors, to support their teetering but otherwise healthy economies.
Ouzo
My prediction: New Democracy will win the election and form government with SYRIZA falling into line. Stock market will post around a 20% rise and gold will drop around $59. This ofcourse is just for the first week. Things should settle down and get back to the usual panic very very soon after that.
During WWII the Germans just about starved the Greeks to death...I think it's going to be a repeat of that!
After the Grexit, Greece will have only one source of foreign exchange - sexual tourism catering to Germans. And I'd bet that old Strauss Kahn himself will be the kingpin pimping the Greek boys and girls to all those guys named Gunther and Wolfgang.
Many Greeks are already hungry and children are fainting in class while at school. Food assistance from Europe is not far off. Austerity will be parked in a side street and new handouts for Greece are coming.
Great Zeus!!!
That burn rate is faster than an Apollo Saturn V moonshot!
All your Greek Gods are belong to us.
(And everything else for that matter.)
I've heard Aphrodite is of the slutty kind...
I'LL TAKE HER!
You get to have zeus...
Yes, you do own everything, including the humanitarian disaster that is unfolding in Greece. Do you still feel good?
....THATS' why it always "french and greek" in the old smut swinging books....
ZH Dictionary: Sprinting. (n) 1. CB printing at hyperinflationary levels.
We're almost in the home stretch! Yaw, mule!
Blackrock hires Philipp Hildebrand.
Swiss Cheese.
All your bits are belong to us.
Well, that’s the thing.
These guys write a lot of good stuff but from what I’ve read so far here, they’re a little too cheery and optimistic about how digital money = Progress!
I'm a EE, and when that issue of Spectrum arrived I cringed alot. I'm no gold bug, but medieval alchemists aside - no one has ever counterfeited gold.
Worst of all was when I read an advertisement from my employer (unrelated to digital cash) - marketing must have had a keg at their weekly unicorn roast on the day that ad was written.
Ha! I think I know which one you mean...
Counterfeited no, re-re-re-hypothecated yes.
pods
All your bits are belong to us
But all you Brits get to stay free because you didn't fall for my little Euro trick.
Greek banks are bankrupt.
Let me say it another way they do not have any money.
Let me say it another way.
Who is supplying the money to give to the depositors.
The greek banks do not have any money to give back to who ever is supplying the money for those deposits.
Courtesy, inkjet technology.
The ECB is keeping those ATMs stuffed through ELA .
If you got some FB stock and plenty of ouzo on hand, what do you need money in a Greek bank for? Duhhhhh.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
Have you taken delivery of your FB certificates? I thought not!
Kalinihta!
Gene - don't you mean "?????????" ? I think so...
GS-DickinDaMuppets
Just a little faster as funds flowing out of equity funds here. Another outflow just reported for this week;
Estimated Long-Term Mutual Fund FlowsJune 13, 2012
Washington, DC, June 13, 2012 - Total estimated outflows from long-term mutual funds were $1.37 billion for the week ended Wednesday, June 6, the Investment Company Institute reported today. Flow estimates are derived from data collected covering more than 95 percent of industry assets and are adjusted to represent industry totals.
Estimated Flows to Long-Term Mutual FundsMillions of dollars 5/9/2012 5/16/2012 5/23/2012 5/30/2012 6/6/2012 Total Equity -1,214 -3,483 -6,994 1,584 -1,731 Domestic -2,255 -3,367 -7,178 906 -3,083 World 1,041 -115 184 678 1,352
Equity funds had estimated outflows of $1.73 billion for the week, compared to estimated inflows of $1.58 billion in the previous week. Domestic equity funds had estimated outflows of $3.08 billion, while estimated inflows to world equity funds were $1.35 billion.
http://ici.org/research/stats/flows/flows_06_13_12
Despite the accelerating speed, this is still a very slow train wreck.
If the rate keeps doubling each 24 hours, Greek bank deposits will reach zero on Thursday, 21 June.
If you carry the seven, the date is 17 June, 2012. :)
frustratingly slow. popcorn is stale. and already I bought all the gold I could afford, so I'm sitting here with this big apocalypse hard-on and all I'm getting is soft core porn. I'd like to see some sovereign sodomy, please. I'd like to see the villagers with their pitchforks hunting bankers. Is that asking too much?
I'm a bit surprised that so many classless jerkoffs read ZeroHedge.
The comment section is the new bathroom wall
'He who writes upon these walls, rolls his shit into little balls. He who reads these words of wit, eats these little balls of shit.'
(Actual bathroom wall quote from Rehoboth Beach bathroom circa 1975...)
Here I sit
Brokenhearted
Tried to shit
But only farted
How is it even possible that they haven't imposed capital controls yet? ... we couldn't possibly be more than a couple of days away from that
There is an election coming up and pissing off the voters is usually a bad idea.
Besides, why should they impose capital controls as long as the ECB still has the ELA turned on and the ATMs are kept well stuffed. Once the switch is flipped off, Greece's only choices are going back to the Drachma, or pure barter, and capital controls become irrelevant.
A very ugly thought came to me a few days back the bank runs may be a moot point ....
If Germany plans to leave the Euro, they can send over as many paper Euros as the PIIGS can pull out since it all will be worthless (and thanks to capital controls) just converted back to the local flavor.
Perhaps, but France will likely hang on to the Euro until the bitter end and allow an influx of refugees from anywhere for any reason. It might dilute the Muslim invasion but it won't really matter because they will give themselves away before admitting failure.
They need another Napoleon....fast. that guy had balls.
He also got a shitload of Frenchmen killed for no good reason.
but he killed more foreigners than he did french, maybe he should have let the rothschilds do it...
France is the only EuroZone country with nuclear weapons.
Good question. Wonder if there's a rush to buy tangible and barter-able items. Are grocery stores running out of canned goods, beans, and rice? Are there shortages in alcohol and tobacco at retailers? I'm guessing that PM's are virtually impossible to find without paying a huge premium there. With the combo of Euro exit and simultaneous conversion/devaluation and captial controls, I'm curious as to what Greeks are seeing as a safe haven. How is "prepper" expressed in Greek?
+ 1 brooklyn and hiding
I did read here at ZH that the pharmacies are running very low on meds. That's bad!
aspirin http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-10/greek-crisis-has-pharmacists-pl...
I read that they are stocking up on canned goods and other storable items for the election......an election no less......at least we have the Myan thing to stock up for
Bank runz, bitchez!
A question for commenters here. If you were in Greece, which party would you vote for?
I would vote for Syriza.
I would not vote, but would move to a small village with good fishing, beaches and drink myself to death. Opa!
~Back-scratcha? Back-scratchar.
I would vote for Mussolini or Hitler. At least they put the people back to work before all the killing and maiming started.
I would write in "Ron Paul".
+1... that or MEP Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage, i want to take some public speaking courses with him.
Christopher Walken
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZLidy7pIQ8
I would vote for Joe Pesci.
3 years after the banking crisis, you have the sovereign crisis. Well, we are just about right on schedule.
Door #1 hyper inflation followed by war
Door #2 depression followed by war
Door #3 magic neo-Keynsian experiment that leads to never-ending prosperity where failure is forever banished and we all love each other.
All three doors are opening.
and we all love each other.
No greek details please.
On unrelated note, I do think that small village with plenty of food is good idea. Just bring some blacksmith or carpenter tools to have a rich life after society breakdown.
.................MORE COWBELL...!!!...!!!....!!!!!!!!!!!!
Like John Malkovich, he is a unique individual.
sorry, dupe
I am wondering, that Greek banks still have this amount of deposits........stupid Greeks
Maybe they are giving fake euros, bought cheap from professional Italians.
I wonder how they are sewing it into their underwear ?
Probably still damp (from the printing presses)
/sarc
Rand()
Does it really matter who wins. its like winning at the special olympics.
Greek Bank Customer: "I'd like to withdraw all my money and close my account, please."
Greek Bank Teller: "Would you like that in drachmas, or alternatively, in drachmas?"
---rimshot---
Greek Bank Customer: "What? I can't with draw any of my money?!"
Greek Bank Teller: "No"
Greek Bank Customer: "BANG-BANG-BANG"
---Headshot---
Since they don't have guns in Greece, I assume that the bang bang bang is the Greek hitting his head on the counter.
They have some guns...
http://www.gunpolicy.org/firearms/region/greece
<----The estimated total number of guns held by civilians in Greece is 2,500,0001 AKA Terrorists
<----The defence forces of Greece are reported to have 1,532,5005 AKA Counter Terrorists
Who Wins?
Oh, they have guns. Lots. Most unregistered. Most fully automatic ...
In some parts (Crete, Northern Greece) the sheer amount of firepower some homes possess would make a Texan blush. Theres a been a budding trade in automatic weapons (and in some cases RPG's) coming in to Greece from Albania, Bulgaria and Iraq.
http://www.balkanalysis.com/greece/2011/05/
Remember, in every Greek Socialist, there is a gun owning, no tax paying Libertarian waiting to get out ...
In some parts (Crete, Northern Greece) the sheer amount of firepower some homes possess would make a Texan blush.
I very seriously doubt that.
Knew folks back home that had literally hundreds of automatic rifles/pistols and who had hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammor for them along with bullet proof vests, anti-tank rounds etc.
This guy has an armory..
http://www.courthousenews.com/2012/06/12/47379.htm
...and he is a Kaliphornican.
In Crete its tradition to get a knife when you're 9 and a gun when you're 14.
http://moreintelligentlife.com/story/arms-and-the-bride-in-crete
Tell you a story from a Cretan wedding I was invited to a few years back. First off the wedding invite had the words "NO GUNS" in bold at the bottom of the invite. I get to the restaurant where their passing out the orektika and a bunch of old guys are standing in a circle pulling at their belts showing off their guns to each other that they have hidden in their pants.
One guy starts talking about his sister's wedding in the 50's. Every one in the village is shooting rounds in the air when the groom's father goes to the back of his truck and pulls out an MG42 that he had gotten his hands on as the Germans were leaving the island. He takes the MG42 and starts shooting it in the air. The brides father was a bit miffed that the grooms father from another village tried to show him off in front of his village. Especially on the day of his daughters wedding. So he goes back to his house which was near the village square and rolls out a Bofors gun that he had 'liberated' from the British as they left the island and starts pumping rounds into the bay of Chania ...
wow great story
GET-SOME
SSAR-15
http://www.youtube.com/user/SlideFireSolutions?feature=watch
So do you suppose people walk by the lines at the bank and think..."gee what's going on there ? Maybe I should check this out and see if there is any money fo me". Or do they just shrug and say ...."I think I'll wait until the line gets shorter"?
Because it sure seems like it's taking a long to bleed the banks dry.
"If you see a line in front of the bank, get in it" - Ancient Saying
"If you see a line in front of the bank, CUT" - Modern Saying
It is called an electronic funds transfer.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/european-business/political-union-needed-to-solve-europes-problems-greenspan/article4256076/comments/
And it starts...
Ot:
the 1day US equities chart looks like boobies ok back to the doomsday predictions.Btw i am not mentally retarded was referring to ugly double top - yayy for booobies though.
Are you saying it's going "tits up"?
"Polls?!? We don't need no stinking polls!?!"
"We will however take your euros!"
Yeppir, after the debacle of Spain there is NO WAY of guessing how the Greeks are planning on voting in this next election.
Just a complete mystery.
barliman
Please leave the Poles out of this. :D
What good will Euros be if Germany reverts back to the Reichsmark.
Germexit - like World War II with all the looting but the Blitzkrieg is headed back INTO Germany.
This has been the German's plan ALL along.
barliman
Remember folks...for a crowd to panic, you only need 2% of the crowd actually panicking before reaching critical mass... same thing with bank runs...
Hitler knew it... people in crowds are even dumber than normal...
Where did the 2% number come from?
96% of statistics are made up on the spot. Same here.
Well I don't know if this is made up... but the times I've been in crowds and analyzed how they acted... it rings true... Crowds are very very dumb... The herd mentality...
I'm just kidding. I'm sure what you say is mostly true.
if one % of the population fights thats an army of 3,000,000
Black Friday sales at Wal Mart show the stupidity of crowds, especially when workers are trampled to death.
Honestly, I don't remember. I read that months ago... (I think)... I read too much stuff every single day to remember every single source... my gut feeling tells me I read that on ZH...
I found this for now... it's 5%... but this might be different for humans in crowds as this is for animals in herds.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/going-with-the-flow-learni...
Critical 5 Percent
The whole theory is based on a natural principle, Krause says. As soon as 5 percent of a group of animals behaves in a certain way, the majority will imitate this behavior too.
that's still pretty low D:
Might you be referring to the 100th monkey thing? Didn't that get debunked?
Excuse me?!? Who's debunking monkeys?
They better turn that shitty Euro fiat into PM's asap.....
Will the New Greek government be forced to implement Capital Controls?
Yes. But it will be too late by then to make much of a difference.
Another war with Turkey will be the only avenue left.
Hmmm....
Too late for capital controls. They will have to go to Drachma and have a big devaluation to get the money to come back in. Same sort of thing happened back in the 80's with the NZD.
Jamie Dimon just made a call back to the office about the markets, guess he didn't like the questioning...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dV6xgXXd51E
I think that would be $1billion over the course of a few days -- not per day...yet.
The rate will declline as the grocery shelves empty.
only if trains stop running to zurich;)
And there goes the markets, at day lows. One thing for sure, the Greeks are not depositing funds into their banks. So the Euro is a wreck, our dollar will soon be on the trash heap and I do not want Yuan, what is left. :)
Greeks should name their new currency the Dracula.
Because it's really going to suck.
.
How about the Bernachma? They could have a picture of some dipshit doofus with a real trimmed beard on them(anti-counterfeit measure). You could exchange 100 of them for a note that says you will get 103 of them in 5 years. (or just spend them at the bath house on mousuki and ouzo)
Why not go more contempory and call it:
THE OBAMA!
Promiseing in the beginning... Worthless after the first year...
In other news...Egan Jones cornholes Spain to CCC
Soon, Germany will send in the Panzer, uhm, I mean Trojan Horse division ;-)
Can anyone provide some context as to what a "normal", pre-crisis level of daily withdrawals was?
I presumed the pre-crisis level was about zero (net of deposits). Otherwise you wouldn't refer to the $1B as "outflow", it would simply be transactions.
The power of exponents demonstrated yet again. Where's the elbow in the withdrawal curve where it goes parabolic?!
Just under the chin of the banksters.
Parabolas don't have elbows. It's like a chick with an Adam's apple.
I shrugged when I saw $100M yesterday. Now $1B, that's more like it.
Interesting times we live in.
Cant the banks replace the deposits with some other sort of IOU notes?
Im willing to donate my $ 15 Trillion wooden Goat for free, or perhaps a small rent, cheaper than ECB.
They already have IOUS for capital. They got a crapload of soverign bonds that is worth as much as an IOU.
Whats the problem then?
IOU... UOMe... WeOThem... TheyOUs... and in the end we are all a one big happy family, united by Ponzi.
dp
Oh hi bitcoin! Guess the Euro mess is making you very popular.
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/06/08/euro-fears-boost-virtual-cu...
Thank you central bankers, for showing everyone how fiat really works.