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Greek Bankruptcy Imminent?
Big Oops out of Bloomberg:
- GREEK CREDITOR COMMITTEE SAID TO BE NEAR HIRING BLACKSTONE
- GREEK CREDITORS SAID TO WORK WITH WHITE & CASE, ALLEN & OVERY
- GREEK CREDITOR COMMITTEE MAY FORMALLY HIRE BLACKSTONE THIS WEEK
Is that how it begins - with an involuntary filing of bankruptcy by an ad hoc committee of creditors?
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Bring it..Bitchez
Interesting chart...
http://azizonomics.com/2011/12/13/ken-rogoffs-chart-of-the-year/
Remember Leo.
Yeah good point h_h. A moment of silence for Leo...
First Solar stock plunges 20%
http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/14/technology/first_solar/
Today is one of those days when I feel like spontaniously combusting right off this fucking planet.
I so understand.
sunny
apologies for spelling ;)
first ratz in will get the best crumbs.
When was that next payment due? December 19th? Merry Christmas to FAZ holders?
That's what Bass says; I'll bet on it.
Gambling is all this market is, anyway.
I might have more fun and success with poker, but since I'm in Afghanistan and can't find any, this will have to suffice in lieu of my weekly game.
Blackstone hired by CREDITORS.
For a minute there I thought they had hired BlackWater.
Checkmate?
Checkmate.
There, fix it.
LOL- how they gonna pay Blackstone? Uzo?
The same way Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan get paid - the blood of unborn children.
Same way MFGobble paid JPMorgue
If you're short the EUR, today, and more days like it to come, with these types of headlines (assuming the veracity of which can be confirmed), will be your glory days.
Odds are that no EU member - not even the PIIGS - will officially declare bankruptcy. Instead, as their citizens, and more importantly, businesses, make bank runs in order to transfer their accounts to German banks, the ECB recapitalization will already be under way.
They'll be de facto bankrupt (they already are, as most know), with a banking sector that's literally on a transaction-per-transaction ECB ventilator, but they won't come out and say as much publicly.
Good analogy with the ventilator!
Over the weekend, all Greek bank branches should be closed, and reopen on Monday as branches of the ECB.
Unlimited deposit insurance! Borrow at a low, low one percent! *
* qualified borrowers only
This will manifest itself as sovereigns being unable to afford to provide basic services, and businesses being unable to find (least of all afford) operating capital.
Avoiding the stigma of bankruptcy will only serve to push these nations off the developed road and into the ditch of a new Middle Ages.
Where they will remain, essentially for all time. Or until something comes along to spark another round of imperialist expansionism.
The new economic sub-division and political remapping of the world is at hand.
This is why I think Tuth In S is wrong. Because your scenario would be the result and it would lead to revolution - not what the European Commision want at all.
I think the sovereigns go broke and THEN the ECB prints. The banks get recapitalised and the slate is wiped clean. Germany can then force fiscal prudence on the recently bankrupt, but allow them access to funds via the ECB.
This is what Goldman also want - bankrupt sovereigns. Fire sale asset prices, panic and then printing and recapitalisation of most banks - some will vanish though.
Whether they're declared as bankrupt or not prior to ECB printing/rescue package (from the ECB or whomever) matters not.
The fact is that as individuals and businesses withdraw fiat from euro deposit accounts from banks in their home nations, and send that money to banks they perceive as more stable in other nations, there has to be a dilutive effect for the euro, as the ECB will be forced to recapitalize the banks getting 'run on,' and any assets priced in euros become cheaper to purchase:
E.G. - If a hypothetical €500 billion is moved from Spanish banks to German banks, doesn't the ECB have to lend/credit those Spanish banks seeing a withdrawal of 300 billion an amount of euros sufficient to keep them 'capitalized enough' in order to ward off insolvency, and isn't this process money printing, essentially?
IN FACT, in the event of an all out bankruptcy, it arguably could and most likely would be WORSE for entities looking to scoop up euro denominated assets at fire sale prices, because all sorts of regulatory interference is put up as masking tape to stem what would then otherwise be a cascade/collapse, including capital controls, etc., and this would make it harder to slink around in the shadows at snipe at assets in an attempt to obtain clear title.
Remember, in most forms of bankruptcies, and in most jurisdictions, a trustee is appointed to run interference for predators looking to pick over the bones of the carcass, so an official bankruptcy inhibits any desired "fire sale," preserving any remaining assets for creditors , and does NOT enable it.
Thank you, excellent clarification, greatly appreciated.
That's just my opinion as to why I think it would be harder for entities to gobble up € denominated assets at fire sale prices pre official bankruptcy of sovereigns, rather than prior to (when we can agree that many EU sovereigns - and other sovereigns around the globe, as a concession to those who think I'm unfairly picking on EU Member States - are already de facto bankrupt) any such official bankruptcy proceedings, which would lead to a regulatory cluster making it nearly impossible to buy anything unless you're a Eurozone creditor or international creditor (i.e. IMF) of the bankrupted.
So, what about that vacation home on the coast of Spain I was hoping to acquire on the cheap? I think my USD will look pretty good.
Well, if they end up prancing around wearing green stockings, funny hats, and playing lutes, it might not be too bad.
Or do you mean the bubonic plague, Spanish Inquisition, bad teeth kind of middle ages? That'd be bad.
What begins exactly?
Reinforced negative feedback loop of margin calls, selling pressure, and deflation.
Also (at least to me) that Bernanke is warming up the printing presses. He already briefed Senators on the European situation today.
Expect some form of strange and archaic sounding statement coming out of the Fed like...
"We are opening liquidity facilities to our European counterparts to aid in quantitative and metaphysical support mechanisms" That's how you know Bernanke has his pump on.
I saw that today..kind of odd I thought...but only the Republicans for some reason...maybe the Democrats are to stupid.....Maxine Waters comes to mind...lol...I had to say it
That woman gets lost in a one room apartment.
LOL. Maxine Waters. Saw her "question" Benocide last year about why there were so few African American recipients of TARP.
Fuck I laughed. You've got the Fed Chairman in front of you and that's the best you can come up with?
I missed that. Did she have megaphone Rev. Jackson and the rainbow coalition standing behind her when she asked that?
Would be the funniest SNL skid ever. Her asking that question and Rev. Jackson repeating and shouting into the megaphone. Rainbow coalition breaking out in dance. Haha.
Why am I seeing a South Park with Ben on his knees and Jesse saying "Apologize?"
pods
Speaking of funny skits, lately I've been imagining Michael Palin going to Yosemite in August as a news reporter, where he approaches people in tents, sticks a microphone in their face, and asks "What! Are! Your! Demands?!"
Cardboard has an IQ of 8
Maxine Waters 7
Maxine Waters has a higher 'R' value, though.
She's so dumb she took a ruler to bed to see how long she slept
She's so dumb that she had a brain storm and it only drizzled
Someone told her she had shit for brains so everytime she takes a dump she thinks she's losing her mind.
Reminds me of Pelosi.
Of course, the blue ribbon winner:
"I am worried that Guam might tip over and capsize."
:)
She's so dumb she couldn't pour water out of a boot with the instructions written on the heel.
Default is no longer taboo. Then shortly after, it becomes all the rage. In style. "We might have to restructure" becomes " we ain't payin', sue me".
"metaphysical support mechanisms" nice!
- Carl Chair Sagan Satan Bernank
Cooked!
Will ISDA determine that this is a voluntary bankruptcy for creditors?
A failed 50% haircut means ISDA's arms are tied and pretty much has to declare it a credit event or risk having the market throw out all CDS which ISDA has their hand in. In other words, it would be the rapid end of ISDA. (Which I'd love to see... fuck the banks)
Greece has collateral. Banks will be made whole. The 1% doesn't loose. Ever.
Yup. That's been the whole game so far: how to avoid default on debts to the 1%. All else is window dressing
By the creditors forcing Greece into an involuntary bankrupcy...I think that is what they are after..they have some gold I hear....
Agreed - credit event.
And then it will begin. The great unwind of multicreated securities upon securities via swaps, CDOs, derivatives, triple down ETFs, etc . . . will be a massive global implosion as the realization that actual underlying assets can in no way support the reverse pyramid "balancing" on top. Eager to get it over with but the havoc will be extreme and lives will be ruined.
ISDA can only reccommend. Whether or not anyone chooses to treat the GRE bk as a credit event is totally up to that party to go ahead and declare it with their counterparty. All credit events are determined by a (non-biased) determiniation committee which hold a stake in the CDS. Though ISDA provides a venue for this, in the end they are still private contracts.
In other words, in each case it will depend on who bought the judge first and what other judges have been bought off previously to establish precedent (a.k.a. "plausible deniability").
Criminal justice, FTW!
D@mn! And here I am thinking "criminal justice" meant criminals being brought to justice, NOT justice being taken away by the criminals! :>(
Back in 2008-2009, the establishment of a credit event took alot of screaming into telephones at the opposite parties as well.
How do you become a judge...there is going to be alot of money being made there soon...I want one....a judge job....and an account on some island
Collapse of the Euro = mass flight into precious metals = forced re monetization of Gold & Silver = Gold & Silver coins & bars worth very precious.
u sir r a scholar...
i concur...dont know who the anonymous hater was that downed u but really who cares aye...
salute...
The current low price today is wiping out the physical supply of PM's...
Paper prices may plunge more too, if it really gets bad.
I am looking at 1500 gold with glee. What a Christmas present. Thank you Ben.
I just noticed that Tulving is sold out of 90% junk silver, as well as any gold eagles/buffalos with the cheapest premium (random dates). I can't recall ever seeing him out of the 90% silver. Still lots of other products though.
That 90% junk silver is what the common man can afford... we can buy as little as a few dimes at a time. I think that's perhaps an indication that the middle class may be scooping up as much of that as they can from their local coin shop - I sure as hell do!
Yep, and you don't mind dropping it on a table to hear the ping either.
Love that sound.
pods
Spoke to a silver buyer here in the midwest today, He said his sellers are flat ass down to zero on junk. Say, Zy, do you maka da brew, too?
Da boyz over in Hong Kong are chortling and rubbing their hands together right now (2:51am CST, 15-Dec-2011), as they busily buy up all the inexpensive Au & Ag that the Idjuts in London & NY pounded into the dirt (AGAIN!) Sooner or later, the price whipsaw is gonna cut somethin' in half!
Collapse of the Euro = mass migration to US Dollars = price of all commodities plunge.
I just don't see the PM spike unless the payment system collapses. I doubt it will be THAT bad.
After the crash in Europe, and the crash in Japan, AND THEN with the crash pending in the US, when the REAL printing begins, THAT's when I see the spike in PM's.
It's all deflation 'till then...
Yes, mass flight to the USD. But once Bernanke and everybody else feel confident that the USD is the only reserve currency left without any completion left, the FED will begin to monetize preemptively. Bernanke all alone feeling in control of the game is a very scary thought for the USD.
Will there be handfuls of suckers flocking to the currency of the world's greatest debtor nation of the history of the world if / when the Euro crashes? Yes!! It doesn't make them less of a sucker. Smart people will choose smart money.
James Turk has stated for years that he sees this time being different to 2008, when liquidity was the prime concern; now it is solvency and huge fear of losing big-time through bankruptcies. So he believes PMs will not fall nearly as much as in 2008, but that they will rise after a short dip.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/13_T...
Yes and no.
Yes, in the long run pm's will skyrocket vs. all fiat.
No, in the short run. First the USD will skyrocket, and pm's will fall. Use this as an opportunity to load up on pm's.
Today's USD and pm action backs me up.
I know of too many pm bulls who will NOT make it to the long run. They're getting crushed now, and may be selling voluntarily or involuntarily.
I see Zynga is looking good.
Teaching 200 million Facebook users how to grow vegetables--smart stuff. Could be handy.
call me crazy but I consider this bullish. Before I figure what long positions I should lock in on I would love to hear what Robotrader has to say. Groupon or Netflix Robotrader?
He goes by Silvergal or Goldengal nowadays
Did Robo titties duck for cover? aaaaaaaaaaa I miss the hooter shot.
My brother has a multiple personality disorder...
Trying to convince each personailty they need to take the meds...
Not easy...
Robo is cowering in the corner of his LA one-bedroom with a few bottles of Tequila and a pallet of Kleenex.
Correction... "his mom's"
Tooo funny.
But I think it means Creditors who did not volunteer for the 50% haircut are now seeking representation as a group.
Tyler is asking is this the start of an insolvency petition against Greece?
I wont pretend to know. But if it is..........Pan European Bank runs are the immediate result.
"It's all about the swaps." CrashisOptimistic, 2011
KA-BLOOEEE ! Rush to dollars and metals crashing to the floor. Back up the pickup truck for the shiny.... Magic moment about to arrive!
I'm confused.
if I'm reading this correctly, it is CREDITORS to Greece who are declaring BK, right?
I'm not sure what this means.
Im with you...Im kinda confused too. Waiting for clear answer.
involuntary bankruptcy. creditors can force debtors into restructuring.
I was confused today also,
I went to an art museum today and was looking at a painting I thought was strange, the painting was of a bunch of native American peoples all naked and screwing, above them was a large fish, and above the fish was a large golden halo, could not for the life of me decipher the meaning until I read the caption at the bottom in small print, Custer’s last words “Holy mackerel look at all those fucking Indians”
This is creditors strong-arming the debtors, sort of like when the loan shark that you owe money to comes to your house and takes your TV out of the living room while you stand there sputtering.
Creditors don't have to wait for a deadbeat to jump out the bk window. They can throw them out.
This is creditors balancing out their "net notionals" to see who is going to be up how much on their swaps when they trigger them, and fuck the EU.
Sell gold.
Buy Zimbabwian Dollar :-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akprSPrnQiA&feature=watch_response
Which part of BTFD do you not understand?
Love to see the phys come back down... going to buy up as much (phys) silver as possible.
Why do I see Kevin Bacon waving his arms wildly saying "ALL IS WELL!"
pods
Because you've a depraved mind and watched Animal House too many times.
there is no such thing as watching Animal House too many times.
I once watched Animal House 3 times in a row overnight during college. I SWEAR the first two times I watched it, it was in black and white, except for pink. My gum tasted funny too.
Okay you got me there.
Still one of the most, hysterically funny movies I've ever seen! :>D
Old Kevin got a porking from investing with Bernie Madoff... Get back to work, Kevin!
No big move yet..
PPT still doing their ratcheting up.
Maybe they'll take a break and go out for some Gyros at lunch.
PPT is into goats.
90% Haircut
CREDIT EVENT
'Not until we say so, keep waiting.' -ISDA
ISDA = CORRUPTED ORG
GREEK HAIRCUT= CREDIT EVENT YES OR YES
BACK TO DRACHMAS¡ NOW¡
Once a loanshark, always a loanshark
Look at the debt load and GDP forecast. How is this surprising?
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/14/my-house-oversight-te...
We'll get a press release soon saying that this is totally normal and that they are just exploring all options...
my spidey sense is telling me something BIG is happening behind the scenes. and a greek bankruptcy ain't it
Well said Spiderman. Too bad we'll all fall for it.
Greece like MF was may be taken down to buy some more time and yes something bigger is going on IMO
You're not the only one.
This is the part in the movie where someone says, "I have a bad feeling about this . . ."
So what are you jokers talking about? Any theories?
If creditors can make a case that they are going to carve up Greece, that makes conditions in France and around the EU look a little better. Tossing Greece under the bus, as it were, is slightly bullish for big EU stakeholders.
Thus if France (or maybe Germany) is about to do something else way ugly, the Playerz are likely to start running around looking for a way to placate the bond gods. And that kind of thing would look a lot like this kind of thing we are seeing now.
Just my own thinking. There is no way a Greek bk process or similar would be telegraphed unless it was to take the edge off of some other really really bad news.
And Roubini plays the part of the young co-ed who decides to go tramping through the wood at night, alone with her new boyfriend, played by Bernanke....
Just some headwinds is all, a gentle breeze will not uproot green shoots
bitchez
How's the chances for that Buddhist retreat lookin'?
Gate, gate, paragate, parasamgate--bodhisattva!
(Trans: gone, gone, all the way gone to the other shore [Argentina!])
Enhanced, although escaping the world should not be motivation to do such a thing, which in my case, it would be to some extent
May I suggest that you continue to live within 'society' but pretend that you're a monk. On second thought, never mind. That would probably cause major unintended consequences and acute suffering.
So, what yur sayin' is that the 200% on that 1 year Greek T-Bill might be in jeopardy?
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
Damn horse has 4 broken legs, and starving. 'bout time to shoot it. Gheesh, put Greece and the stupid EU out of our, and their own, misery.
Can they file an involuntary bankruptcy if Greece hasn't missed a payment? Doesn't there need to be a payment default for this? Or did I miss Greece not making an interest payment?
Seriously, there is no legal process for creditors to have a country declared involuntarily bankrupt.
Either Greece pays the coupons, or it doesn't. If the latter, then negotiations ensue.
There is no bankruptcy court to hear this case.
Denial in 30 minutes.
Can I still re-hypo Greek paper and lever it 35 to 1 ?
I'm sure JPM would be willing to help you out.
They'll hold off until the 23rd.
It seemed odd that commodities were liquidating so hard and currencies were moving this quickly. Felt like something was missing.
my question is who is greece going to use? (talking big retainer in advance, there)
Retainer. How can you not think of Ben Affleck in Goodwill Hunting with that reference.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hWIr9_noRo
but our leaders said everything is fine???? i dont understand...somebody please explain........
If you have to ask, you can't afford it.
A salesman told me that.
Didn't Soros just pick up a bit of greek debt? Seems like he was setup.
Oh come on, Soros isn't being set-up, he's probably behind this. What bondholder is threatening to put Greece in involuntary BK?
No doubt. Soros has purchased a seat at the table (if he doesn't own it outright).
SPX Update
http://www.marketanthropology.com/2011/12/spx-update_14.html
Link to article please? I can no find on the 'berg...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-14/greek-creditor-committee-is-sai...
**edit**
Oops. Wrong article--thought you were looking for the intitial announcement. Pardons.
Thanks Doc'
Get ready to tweet the twit on those $2K gold prices.
according to max keiser's inside info, jamie dimon threatened to kill corzine, unless he stole investors accounts, so JPM would not take losses on ther silver shorts! look at GLD and SLV today! there you go!
Let Greece go BK. CDS will NOT get triggered just as Canada is able NOT to comply with Kyoto. Same difference. Treaties are made to be broken. CDS were a good instrument as long as banks could collect FEES to sell them. The counter party risk is too great, global security depends on it. Show me who owns the CDS title and we can talk.. remember mortgage gate?
Greece go BK, Eurozone has a chance to survive another day.
Hurry up and default, I've got some EURUSD options due to expire next week ;)
What do they expect to collect? Greece only has one thing. That is gold.
Looooong overdue as is the inevitable disintegration of the political UTOPIA called zEurozone.
My Big Fat Greek Bankruptcy !!!
I also agree-- credit event, and they will allow it. But do the Greeks stay in the Euro ? Its going to get ugly from here kiddies:
http://themeanoldinvestor.blogspot.com/2011/05/day-greece-collapses.html
But I thought the creditors were all going to voluntarily extend maturities and lower interest rates. Why on Earth would they force a bankruptcy instead? Are they insane?
I thought Greece was acquired by Netflix.
SP500 daily chart resumes choppy downtrend. Opposite for USDX.
My long term indicators have continued to warn of USD strength and EURO weakness and these signals have increased since 2009. The overdue dollar rally should be substantial.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
OK, not my area of the law, but how exactly would an American court or any other for that matter have jurisdiction over a soveriegn nation? And even if a court is willing to claim jurisdiction or in fact has jurisdiction, exactly how would any BK judgement be enforced?
Why would the Greek goverment or any other submit to the jurisdiction of foreign court. The USA does not.
The first domino to fall...
The CBs will probably use it as another Lehman event. Look at the devastation in Greece, now we have to bailout everyone or the whole system will collapse.