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The Greek "Chicken or Egg Problem" Emerges: No Resignation Without Coalition Government; And Vice Versa

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With Greece once again likely to dominate newsflow, the question of whether G-Pap will step aside, as he promised, will be one everyone will demand to see answered. Especially Europe. As Reuters reports, "the European Union turned up the heat on bickering Greek politicians on Sunday to agree a crisis coalition, demanding progress towards backing an international bailout deal in the next 24 hours. In a sign that Greece's political deadlock may be easing under EU pressure, a senior socialist said Prime Minister George Papandreou had made clear he would resign once a coalition deal was done, possibly as soon as Sunday night." Yet the career politician has pulled the last gambit and has thrown the "coalition" government choice straight in the arms of his nemesis, New Democracy's Antonis Samaras, and the president: "Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has asked the president to host talks between himself and opposition leader Antonis Samaras after a Sunday cabinet meeting, a source at the prime minister's office quoted the premier as telling his cabinet." In other words, if nothing is resolved, G-Pap can tell a furious Europe, "we tried" and blame the opposition, in yet another attempt to win political brownie point. The time, however, is short for a final solution: "With euro zone finance ministers due to meet on Monday, senior socialist lawmaker Telemachos Hitiris said: "Everything must be done within the day, otherwise tomorrow it will be hell." How many times have we heard that before. And it very well may be hell, however it will no longer come from Greece but from Italy, whose 10 Year bonds closed at the lowest price ever and where a margin raise by LCH now appears imminent, making another step function move lower almost inevitable. Either way, Greece will be fun to watch as all the hopium has been spent and no more cans can be kicked.

From Reuters:

Greece had breached confidence with its euro zone partners last week and put itself on a path towards leaving the common currency, Rehn said in a telephone interview.

 

Papandreou provoked uproar on Monday by announcing a referendum on the bailout, which demands yet more austerity to be imposed on the long-suffering Greek population, plunging his country into political as well as economic crisis.

 

Under heavy pressure from home and abroad, Papandreou ditched the referendum and narrowly survived a confidence vote, but only after promising to seek a new broad-based coalition. Rehn said Greece now appeared to be pulling back from the brink.

 

Early on Sunday, the left and right had seemed far apart and any coalition deal between Papandreou's PASOK socialists and the conservative New Democracy a distant prospect.

 

But the EU pressure appeared to start working. With the cabinet due to meet later on Sunday, Hitiris said explicitly what Papandreou had signalled in parliament on Friday.

Even the president is now sick of G-Pap's endless politics:

In the hunt for a national consensus, President Karolos Papoulias met the conservative opposition leader on Sunday.

 

"This uncertainty that is torturing the Greek people must end. We must find a solution," Papoulias said before starting closed-door talks with New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras.

 

Samaras said he was ready for compromise but only with a new prime minister. "I am determined to help. Provided that Papandreou resigns, everything will take its course," he said after the talks.

In other words, we now have a classical chicken or the egg syndrome, where G-Pap will not resign until he has a coalition government, something Samaras refuses to do with G-Pap still in charge, and on the other hand, Samaras will not participate in a coalition government until G-Pap resigns.

As for Greek sentiment, perhaps this one taxi driver summarizes it best:

"Europeans don't trust us anymore, they will throw us out," said Tassos Pagonis, a 48-year-old Athens taxi driver. "I hope we don't return to the drachma."

And perhaps not. Keep an eye on those riot cams.

 

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Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:19 | 1850480 So Close
So Close's picture

It has been interesting to watch this unfold.   Who will be held accoutnable for what?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:22 | 1850489 Stormdancer
Stormdancer's picture

average folks, for all of it.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:56 | 1850578 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

If capitalism gets the rap, we're all in trouble. And there's a good chance that capitalism will be blamed. The US won't be able to handle the implosion of the dollar and socialism at the same time, because socialism will eat us whole. The only way I stay in the US is if capitalism is set free. 

The real demon is inflation, or increasing the money supply. Increases in the money supply used to be kept in check because it could only increase as fast as gold or silver was mined. Now, there is no physical constraint on increasing the money supply and the money supply is set to increase at such a high rate that the USD will soon be worthless.

The only other option is for the Fed to stop increasing the money and allow depositors to lose their money...and I don't see the Fed choosing this options. Gold will soon have the purchasing power equal to the amount that $10,000 buys today. The silver to gold ratio will compress and at a min. will hit 10 to 1, meaning silver will have the purchasing power of at least $1,000 and possibly up to $4,000 / oz at the height of the silver bubble. When its meaningless to print dollars, easy credit will no longer be supplied to housing through low rates and the backing of mortgages, and dollars from a printing press will no longer be accepted in exchange for foreign goods, meaning the US will only be able to consume what it produces, making Americans much poorer to the point that many American's will move in with friends and family in order to share the costs of heating and maintaining a home, or leave the country altogether, which will further expose the overbuilding of housing...all in all, the proceeds from the sale of a home will be able to purchase 70%-80% less than it does now. All of this restructuring is good and necessary.

Because money was being mispriced, capital was not used in the most efficient manner. Exposing the malinvestments is what needs to happen in order have a more efficient allocation of resources and a faster increase in productivity. The dollar needs to collapse. Housing prices need to fall drastically. Banks need to fail. Most of the Federal Government needs to disappear. And gold and silver need to be returned as money in order to keep the government from printing money and creating more malinvestments.

One good solution is to save in physical silver and take the equity out of your home that you would like to keep. If you want to save in USD and want to protect yourself from hyperinflation, one good way to do so is to save in nickels which now have a melt value of more than $.05.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:12 | 1850615 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

CNBC is reporting that G Pap has told his cabinet he will resign today.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:14 | 1850627 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Greece is exactly like greeks, fuckin emotional bitches who are lazy, effeminate, and high maintenance.  Kick them the fuck out.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:29 | 1850644 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I am surprised the EU has wanted them to stay in so badly.  It is as if the Greek bailout was a front op for the repeaded bailouts of the EU entirely.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:02 | 1850722 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The European banking cabal behind the ECB wants everybody's assets; they ain't gonna let 'em off easy-like.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:27 | 1850763 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

Trav777 is exactly like a Greek, fuckin emotional bitch who is lazy, effeminate, and high maintenance.  Kick it the fuck out.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:28 | 1850661 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

Gold will soon have the purchasing power equal to the amount that $10,000 buys today. The silver to gold ratio will compress and at a min. will hit 10 to 1, meaning silver will have the purchasing power of at least $1,000 and possibly up to $4,000 / oz at the height of the silver bubble

My humble gut estimate is exactly the same... but this will only happen WHEN THERE IS A MARKET for PMs, I mean a market where the price depends upon demand and supply of the physical object. TBTB will not allow such a market. And when there is chaos and war, there is no sound price discovery either. I only stacked PMs because I have no better idea, I am fully aware that it is in vain with quite a high probability.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:47 | 1850688 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

There's a market for PMs right now. Just because you can't take your oz of gold to the grocery store (that would be a lot of groceries), doesn't mean there isn't a market for it. TBTB aren't gods and hyperinflation will occur whether they like it or not. No laws or propaganda will be able to hold fiat together once confidence is lost. Price discovery will still occur during chaos and war. What chaos and war will do is destroy productivity and with less goods and services being provided, prices will rise. But over time, improvements in technology leads to increases in productivity causing prices to fall. Consumers of the last 100 yrs. have been robbed from the benefit of falling prices and when we return to PMs, that benefit will be returned..so there is a lot of catching up to do on that end which will be able to absorb all but the most horrific bouts of war (as far as the purchasing power of PMs is concerned).

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:25 | 1850761 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

There's a market for PMs right now

No. As of today >95% of the population is not aware of fiat money = not aware of what PMs mean = they do not participate in the market = there is no REAL market. Today the market is played by a few big ones who do with it whatever they want. The awareness will rise with each point of inflation, but when there is double digit inflation, it is game over anyway. Until then by far too few people hold physical PMs and by far too few are aware of the fiat system to demand sound money from their leadership. And it will be the easiest thing for TPTB to doom owners of PMs 'greedy speculators' and make laws against them (us). And after a war / chaos reset, as each and every time, people have other issues than caring about the monetary system.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:44 | 1850819 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

TPTB will throw the kitchen sink at trying to hold down PMs, but it won't work because of the massive amount of money that they are set to print. Fiat always fails in the end and it's amazing the world has gone 40 years run on fiat. You're right, hardly anybody is into PMs, which signifies how much they will be worth when everyone is into PMs. Even with war, people will still look to save what they earn.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:06 | 1850735 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Love to see margin go to 100%. That would mean a real market.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:36 | 1850670 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

This is ultimately deflationary.
I am not yet convinced the Fed will take the inflationary option.

Mild inflation over the next ten years as the majority of the population gradually get accustomed to a lower standard of living is the optimal outcome.

Latin america has about half or less our standard of living and most have good lives. We dont need big houses and prime rib. Beef hearts and rice make a great meal.

Most of what we call our higher standard of living is useless unnecessary garbage that causes us to work too hard and not have enough leisure.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:59 | 1850715 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

That's a bit strange to not want a higher standard of living. Please keep that to yourself and don't drag the rest of the US down with your masochist self.

In order for this to be deflationary, the Bernanke would need to stop printing money, or at the min., stop increasing the rate that the money supply grows. The problem with that is the Bernanke must increase the rate of growth in the money supply in order to keep the malinvestments from mispricing money (0% rates + QE) from becoming exposed. Said differently, now that cheap money has created malinvestments, cheaper money must be supplied and the malinvestments must be increased continuously in order to keep the malinvestments from becoming exposed. At the core of the issue, you're saying that the Bernank will allow the malinvestments to become exposed and depositors to lose their money. If depositors are not allowed to lose their money, then it just means more money printing and more inflation. And don't think for a minute the smokescreen of the FDIC holds enough to save the depositors.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:19 | 1850754 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You are forgeting to add monetary velocity and money time preferences to your calculations. If consumers begin to abhor debt and continue to deleverage then he will have to monetize faster just to keep nominal prices stable.

As far as lower standard of living we have it now. Why work hard to buy a new car every five years or to have five computers per household? Do salad shooters really improve productivity?

The true test of a high living standard is increased leisure time, freedom from drudgery, and comfortable surroundings with interesting activities......living well.

Many of the middle class in Latin America have that. So what if they drive cheap cars and buy one set of quality kitchen knives per lifetime?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:25 | 1850762 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

These misallocations are easier to unwind in a mildly inflationary environment due to money illusion. No need to expose people to obvious losses. Let them have nominal slight gains. New capital will chase greater gains elsewhere and the rebalancing can proceed more smoothly than through dislocations and discontinuities that are more lukely in a deflationary environment.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 15:04 | 1850876 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

You are forgeting to add monetary velocity and money time preferences to your calculations. 

 

Monetary velocity is a myth. Savings isn't just buried in the ground..it is invested for a return. After all, without savings, there wouldn't be capital to produce goods and services. And the only reason to produce is to consume and you can only consume what is first produced. So savings and under consumption is what drives an economy, raises productivity, and drives down prices because of the greater supply of goods and services that it creates.

 

If consumers begin to abhor debt and continue to deleverage then he will have to monetize faster just to keep nominal prices stable.

 

You're making my point for me. In order for the malinvestments to be kept from becoming exposed, the rate of monetization must be increased. This is a downward spiral because because the more monetization there is, the more malinvestments are created. There are only two ways out of this cycle. 1) Depositors are allowed to fail. or 2) Hyperinflation.


Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:44 | 1850817 chubbar
chubbar's picture

How are you figuring they solve the issue of 15trillion in debt payoff plus the interim debt servicing plus the 50trillion (conservative) in out year liabilities in this deflationary forecast of yours?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:53 | 1850846 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Good point.

I guess my argument is that nominal wages and prices stay the same while demand goes down at the same time fiat gradually devalues.

I suppose I am calling for stagflation versus deflation. In a deleveraging low demand environment dollars can devalue but not as fast as prices of certain goods go down.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 15:21 | 1850914 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Demand never goes down. Demand is infinite. People always want stuff. You can only consume what is first produce and you only produce in order to consume. So demand is derived from supply. What you're really saying by "demand going down" is supply decreases, so now less is consumed. 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:33 | 1850779 bb5
bb5's picture

Martin Armstrong has a lot of interesting things to say about the gold standard (and many other things) Check out www.martinarmstrong.org.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:27 | 1850504 edotabin
edotabin's picture

Nobody will be held accountable for anything.... as usual. Well, maybe the avergae Joe who is completely screwed.

Even the person that is chosen by the media as a scapegoat will probably get a huge bank account in a foreign country and live there comfortably.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:08 | 1850612 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Governments will do ANYTHING to avoid upset of Business-As-Usual.

If someone needs to be killed, he will die.  If bond holders have to be gutted, they will be gutted.  If Greek opposition must be bought off, they will be bought off.

If the ECB must buy Italian bonds over German objections, then Merkel will be replaced with Socialists.

Nothing stops this, people, except oil.  Oil is the only end point.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:27 | 1850507 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Fringe bloggers...for everything.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:11 | 1850618 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

No. They'll have o be more specific than that.

Just blame ZH for everything.

Simples.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:31 | 1850518 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

The Taxi driver

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:38 | 1850523 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

"Greece.   Can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em."

Ken Dorfman (or pick your favorite talking head politician)

 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:55 | 1850563 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

Scrambled eggs or mulched chicken either way this bird is fucked, plucked, and chucked.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:01 | 1850593 UGrev
UGrev's picture

this is the biggest game of Hot Potato I've ever seen. 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:24 | 1850758 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

It's more like game Hide The Gold Pickle.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:05 | 1850606 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The Europeans laid an egg when they bought into this crap.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:16 | 1850633 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yes, inviting countries like this into their currency union?  WTF, how many massive inflations have these southern euro countries been through?  Didn't Germany LEARN from fighting alongside shit nations like Italy in WW2 that these bitches were worthless?

JFC, the allies reliably scouted and then attacked EVERY non-german axis position to get anywhere.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:21 | 1850484 vipmoneymachine
vipmoneymachine's picture

Someting must be done before futures open this evening otherwise we are screwed.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:56 | 1850581 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Although I have seen that before (do this, or we're screwed).  IMO, they will keep doing nothing, kicking the can, and it will all seem OK.  Until it doesn't work anymore.  Then we're screwed!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:00 | 1850590 JohnG
JohnG's picture

That can is perilously close to bouncing off a wall.  That wall is made of pure, solid GOLD.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:21 | 1850485 achmachat
achmachat's picture

of course!

how else could it have been? you guys thought they had found a solution? ha!

G-Pap keeps trying to find ways of saying that "it wasn't his fault".

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:43 | 1850555 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

You bet.  All this crazy political choreography is to assure his retirement in the Carlyle Group with all the rest of 'em.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:21 | 1850487 agent default
agent default's picture

Freeze all funding and kick Greece out of the EU.  Then break up the EU.  Enough with this clusterfuck already.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:25 | 1850506 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I agree, then we can address the American Debt crisis...

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:04 | 1850598 JohnG
JohnG's picture

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzA0UPRz_o4

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R4dujufNj_Q&feature=player_embedded

 

Simple math, but the just don't teach exponential growth of interest in skool any more.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:34 | 1850667 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, ask even the average "educated" accountant when the population of a culture of bacteria growing exponentially would be 50% of max if they double every minute and they run out of food in 60 minutes.  Most will say that the population reaches half of maximum at 30 minutes when the actual answer is 59 minutes.  In other words, when it comes to things like population dynamics and sustainability, by the time you actually notice that there is a problem, it is far too late to actually do anything about it.

Anyone living in Arizona and Nevada know what the water levels are again at Lake Mead and the Glen Canyon reservoir?  Yeah, good luck.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:17 | 1850746 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

You bet they don't.  I once sat on a school board where the idea of adding a math course in practical money management, as in balancing a check book, understanding compound interest, etc. was nixed behind the scenes by the pres of a local bank.  And all politics is "local".  Gives you a pretty good idea how the American people were so easily worked over by the banks.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:34 | 1850529 LuKOsro
LuKOsro's picture

I wish things were that simple. But you know hos a butterfly in Tokio can cause a tornado in Texas. Be very wary of slash-and-burn techniques as they only work in agriculture. Cheers!

 

http://journey-to-alpha.blogspot.com/

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:40 | 1850551 agent default
agent default's picture

Make those who made stupid decisions take the pain.  If they are too exposed, let them go bankrupt,liquidate them. This is capitalism.  Bailouts are just socialist nonsense. 

Really, at some point we have to stop selling each other derivatives and go back to doing something productive.  At some point the nonsense has to end.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:49 | 1850571 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Go local and work on a cash basis.. It's the real way to do something productive.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:22 | 1850488 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

no more cans to kick?

let's start recycling more!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:31 | 1850519 daily bread
daily bread's picture

There's a shortage of cans?  That means I should "go long on cans"!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:19 | 1850640 Tramp Stamper
Tramp Stamper's picture

Be careful There shooting at the cans

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:19 | 1850639 erg
erg's picture

I have a styrofoam cup that I'm not using anymore.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:22 | 1850490 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The theory of evolution answered this question long ago. The egg came first. It was laid by a chicken-like ancestor.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:24 | 1850496 achmachat
achmachat's picture

people who know about genetics, mutations and species know this... but try explaining it to "financial" people ;-)

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:31 | 1850517 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The only thing left to do is to asign egg and chicken status to the parties involved then all is well. IMHO G Pap is very good at playing chicken so therefore the egg (opposition) will come first, meaning G Pap will resign. There, scientific logic at its finest!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:21 | 1850642 erg
erg's picture

Who gets the yoke?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 14:54 | 1850848 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Score one for scientific reasoning (or 50:50 guessing)

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:31 | 1850664 delacroix
delacroix's picture

the rooster came first

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:22 | 1850491 Dick Darlington
Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:24 | 1850498 navy62802
navy62802's picture

I'm pretty sure that a eurozone breakup and the death of the Euro is the only logical outcome here.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:49 | 1850569 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Yep, agreed. But what really cought me by surprise is that Good Ol' Jimbo is writing abt it. It could even be a sign that the breakup is imminent. I mean if even Good Ol' Jimbo is starting to "get it" things are probably gonna get out of hands very soon.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:39 | 1850548 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Wow!

You guys have to read the link.

A Chicom is quoted as saying that the european welfare state promotes laziness and indolence.

Even the chicoms agree with me we ought to kick all those lazy asses off welfare (disability, food stamps, unemployment, etc) to re energize society.

I am becoming more optimistic about our future. A consensus seems to be emerging in the world to crack down on parasites.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:43 | 1850559 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

And no one need starve.

We can feed people and shelter them at the county poorhouse which also serves as an unemployment office and day labor pool.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:56 | 1850580 sushi
sushi's picture

Quote

We can feed people and shelter them at the county poorhouse

End Quote

No need for the massive expense of a county poorhouse. They should do as we do in America and sell them permits to camp under freeway overpasses.

 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:05 | 1850605 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

County poorhouse are cheap if we just use and extend the existing homeless shelters.

People can hot bunk, sleep in shifts. If its good enough for our military then it is good enough for people who arent working

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:59 | 1850584 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

with a capon in every pot to insure prosperity well into the future?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:04 | 1850603 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Dick and top.

+ 1 to each of you guys, thx for sharing the link and promoting it.  Yeah, I like the idea that the world is coming back around to the idea that you have to be productive if you want to eat.

I like the idea of a county poorhouse where they can be warehoused until each can be put to some kind of productive work, yet no one starves.  That's probably about as far down the road to a "welfare state" that we should have ever gone.  Back to the future!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:18 | 1850638 trav7777
trav7777's picture

ROTFL...anytime the Chicom leadership (which is indolent and lazy and corrupt and stupid) sees a peasant not slaving in a factory, there's something WRONG with this picture!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:23 | 1850494 Rhone_Ranger
Rhone_Ranger's picture

Governments must be bored, they've obviously adopted chaos theory as the new governing doctorine to amuse themselves.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:23 | 1850495 Smithovsky
Smithovsky's picture

G-Pap?  More like Pap-smear.  

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:24 | 1850499 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

""Everything must be done within the day, otherwise tomorrow it will be hell." How many times have we heard that before."

Amen, brother.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:43 | 1850682 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

tanks in the streets! ohhh wait, there are ALREADY tanks in the greek streets....

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:25 | 1850500 Matt1973
Matt1973's picture

I've seen this movie....futures open down, by 10pm, the S&P with be down 20 handles...before the markets open, there will be some rumor that Greece agreed on something and we'll open green tommorrow (all while Italian bonds move out to new wides)...

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:30 | 1850516 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Thats about the best guess so far.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:04 | 1850601 Roy T
Roy T's picture

 

Are you Matt Miller from Bloomberg?  If not, you have a very similar handle as his name on Twitter.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:25 | 1850503 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

all smoke and mirrors to deflect from the ultimate enslavement of the Greek people and the distribution of the country's assets to Jekyl Island descendents.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:32 | 1850514 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes.  The PIS countries, Germans and French now realizing that they would be next, then America, all trying to make the Greece thing last forever.  Boring world we live in, so predictable.  If the BRICs ever want to get paid, and not in devalued paper, they would make their move now.  People at all levels are settling into defensive positions (financially or otherwise).  My business has been for about a year now.  Credit and liquidity in general starting to freeze faster and faster. 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:38 | 1850543 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Japan will probably go down just before the USA.

Having the world's reserve currency has it's privileges.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:44 | 1850562 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

I would have thought so too until the primary dealers for the reserve currency started admitting they were criminals, and showed us all how interrelated they are with the specific crime.   Has anyone called a cop?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:46 | 1850686 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Maybe, one could argue that holding the world's reserve currency simply means that you will win the race to the bottom.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:25 | 1850505 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

How do you speculate in this political climate? Maybe buy a put and a call at the same strike price?

Maybe I should just go back to dollar cost averaging into a portfolio at my volatility tolerance along the efficient frontier.

But that would be too boring.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:33 | 1850525 magpie
magpie's picture

Short or volatility on Eurostoxx, long SPY as hedge ?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:38 | 1850546 edotabin
edotabin's picture

After this thriller, watch how the media will report that Italy, Spain, France etc. are in MUCH BETTER shape than originally thought. A little 3-4 trillion printing on the "down low" by ECB and we are all set to go!

This is a very poorly produced show.  I think the Muppets did a better job.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:28 | 1850509 Rhone_Ranger
Rhone_Ranger's picture

The chicken is an actual chicken while an egg is only a potential chicken.  According to the laws of nature, actuallity precedes potentiallity, therefore the chicken was first?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:07 | 1850610 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

From where did the chicken come?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:11 | 1850617 Rhone_Ranger
Rhone_Ranger's picture

From the magical flying sky fairy?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:18 | 1850636 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Fractional reserve egging?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:15 | 1850630 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

so an egg came a floatin up to da surface of tha ocean,... da wind did  blown its as[s]ashore - where da egg-shaped-submarine caponitan twas jus n reality a chicken at sea?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:43 | 1850679 Monedas
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An egg is an actual egg and a virtual chicken ! They are both alive....unless you're of the unviable tissue mass persuasion ! A live chicken is a potential egg donor....a virtual egg ? I'm afraid you have not solved the riddle ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad All Bridges Don't Completely Cross the Rhone, Lone Ranger ? 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:28 | 1850511 Ancona
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I just love a Mexican standoff. This shit is better than going to the movies.....and cheaper too!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:35 | 1850536 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

A favorite Mexican Standoff:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HzF_TbmDH5s

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:10 | 1850616 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Very good!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:52 | 1850558 Monedas
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A Mexican stand off is resolved when they decapitate the Mudder Fluffer and hang his naked body with an extension cord from a freeway overpass ! At least his Mom is spared the horror of seeing her son in skid marked skivies !  Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Trolling for Trollops

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:28 | 1850512 Bill D. Cat
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...... long - suffering Greek population .....

 

The irony , it burns .

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:29 | 1850515 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Will somebody fucking shoot somebody already? This god damn drama is more painful than a second degree burn victim with shingles...

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:06 | 1850608 Rover
Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:12 | 1850623 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, that'll do.  Green...

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:54 | 1850706 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Cue Archduke Ferdinand.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:32 | 1850520 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"We are down to 24 hours, and you lost the can?!" >face slap<

"SteeeemPap, you eeediot!"......"Sorry Rehn."

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:34 | 1850524 Monedas
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Choose one ! G-Pap is:  1. Stalling !  2. Bluffing !  3. Wishing he could stick his head up his ass....Greek style ! 4. All of the above ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Gee-20 Taffy Pull (Circle Jerk)

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:47 | 1850566 cowdiddly
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You can see how stupid this is when they are bickering to qualify for another  8 billion dollar bailout with 11 billion in payments due before the end of the year. Even if this is approved they will immediately have to start posturing for the next one. Check and mate. Its over, your can can no longer be kicked.   

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:13 | 1850625 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

4.  No doubt about it.

+ 1 for the Jihadist!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:33 | 1850526 butchee
butchee's picture

You can spend hopium? I thought it was only for smoking.  You learn something new everyday.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:14 | 1850626 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

You really can't spend it..... But you can sell it! And spend the proceeds!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:15 | 1850629 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Give 'em some Monopoly money; comes from a Greek root word just like democracy.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:33 | 1850527 Me XMan
Me XMan's picture

I'll go with the Chicken.

 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:35 | 1850532 no life
no life's picture

Pretty clever, eh little chum..

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:35 | 1850533 Snakeeyes
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From Zero Hedge:

“Olive Oil Crisis” – G-20 Wants Germany to Contribute Gold to the Crisis Fund – Germany Says “Nein!” – ECB Threatens Italy About Lack of Austerity

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/

There is NO SOLUTION! Greece and Italy will have massive riots with austerity, as will Spain and Portugal.

All this represents is politicians trying to stay in power for one (or two) more more terms.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:47 | 1850567 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

So true.

Everyone wants to delay as long as possible in order to accumulate more before she blows.

Me too.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:18 | 1850635 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Right there with you guys.  More cash from the bank and more physical gold while we can.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:54 | 1850575 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Give 'em a break.  Moving your gold to a safe place is logistically difficult and time consuming.  They also need to nail down their plastic surgery and safe houses.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:02 | 1850595 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Hitler says "Nein", Metal version.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILtxKWHrGyQ

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:38 | 1850542 oogs66
oogs66's picture

And this is the closest to good news out of Europe this weekend :D

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:38 | 1850545 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

there is no political solution  (Sting)

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:39 | 1850549 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

the taxi driver is definetly not  de niro.....seems more sheep like, the  castrated variety...

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:39 | 1850550 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Somebody should tell that taxi driver that if Greece returns to the Drachma they'll be overrun with tourists.  Can't wait to pack for Santorini again.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:43 | 1850556 markar
markar's picture

True that. The taxi driver doesn't have a clue. He should be praying for a hard default and return to the Drachma.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:44 | 1850561 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

I am waiting to see when USA will be annexed with Europe.

 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:49 | 1850570 magpie
magpie's picture

Annexation by bailout ? Conquest by guarantee and backstop ?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:57 | 1850582 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

NWO bitchezzz.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:22 | 1850586 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

China will anex us to Europe with the stroke of a pen in 2 seconds flat.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:09 | 1850585 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

"all the hopium has been spent and no more cans can be kicked."

 

There are always cans to be kicked. G pap will get thrown out, they'll institute the agreed upon restructure, markets will go to the moon and then focus will shift to Italy. Italy will implement some watered down austerity(again), declare everything is under control and then in a month or two I'll be writing this same thing again. rinse and repeat. 

 

There is no fiat end game. Atleast not one that any of us will probably live to see. What is certainly possible and has obviously been occuring is the continuation of a slow protracted deterioration in wealth for most people, atleast in the US and some other developed countries. You can only fix debt problems in government a few ways. Inflate, cut spending, or increase revenues. Any of these options guarantee pain for the masses.   

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:24 | 1850649 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

See above.  There is nothing governments won't do to protect Business As Usual because BAU looks pretty good to them.

The endpoint is oil.  Geology is the one thing they cannot change by decree, though . . . they will try.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 12:59 | 1850588 Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture

Suzerainty is the new soverainty.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:00 | 1850589 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

G-Pap? Is that a new type of Papanicolaou Test?

 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:04 | 1850599 Smithovsky
Smithovsky's picture

It's official - Pap-smear resigning tomorrow.  

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:24 | 1850650 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Just signed on with the Carlyle Group.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:07 | 1850604 Kokulakai
Kokulakai's picture

.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:08 | 1850613 Buyemall
Buyemall's picture

resignation new short term transitory government elections new government

coalition new government resignation elections or coalition resignation new government  elections

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:09 | 1850614 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

G-Pap is too busy preparing for his appearance on the jerry Springer show.

Don't bother him, please.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:18 | 1850637 arkady
arkady's picture

Why are Greeks so afraid of returning to the drachma?  They joined the Europe for cheap debt, that debt is no longer available - so why bother?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:48 | 1850691 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

for one they'll never be able to pay off even 50% of their Euro denominated debt with a hugely depreciated currency. They import quite a bit and everything will be insanely expensive. Not to mention who's going to lend to them on the Drachma without a German/French backstop? They still have huge annual deficits. 

 

their tourism industry will do great though. I guess that's a good enough reason.  

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 16:25 | 1851021 arkady
arkady's picture

I sort of assumed that by going to the drachma that will mean automatic default of all euro denominated debt.  Your point on imports is quite valid, however as often happens with cheap currencies - they can export.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:24 | 1850648 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

Joking aside.

Just what the hell is G-Pap up to?

A coalition, even if short term, would be established immediately if he resigned.

What's his game?

 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:25 | 1850652 gibbersome
gibbersome's picture

So much negativity on zerohedge, stocks are going to pop Monday.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:38 | 1850672 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Smart negativity my friend:  None of us bought PIIGS bonds like Corzine did for one thing.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 13:50 | 1850696 Monedas
Monedas's picture

We have our rural south porch monkeys......Europe has theirs ! What's the big deal ? Give 'em their food stamps ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Northern Latitude Attitude

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 18:00 | 1851251 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

It's all about Italy right now, thats what they are concerened about.  They see Sunday night/their monday morning coming into being and the markets are rattled.

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