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Greek Deal Done? Not So Fast Says IMF

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Update - It gets even better: Greek Deal Lacks Detailed Paperwork For Decision - DJ. What, 50 pages of promises is not enough.

The Greeks "pledge" that they will grow their economy in 2013? May as well pledge unicorn cab cabs for all Germans to their southern province in perpetuity. Yet somehow this is sufficient to squeeze the EURUSD higher as a "deal is done." Perhaps, but not so fast. As we speculated, the Troika not only does not want to fall for the same Greek BS any more, but frankly wants it out (and Germany votes on the bailout package tomorrow) - but has to do it diplomatically. So here it comes:

  • IMF SAYS IT'S NOT FORCING AUSTERITY ON GREECE AS TALKS CONTINUE - BBG
  • RICE SAYS IMF "WELL AWARE HOW DIFFICULT' IT IS FOR GREECE - BBG
  • IMF'S RICE SAYS IMF MINDFUL OF `HARDSHIPS' IN GREEK PROGRAM - BBG
  • RICE DECLINES TO SAY WHAT IMF SHARE OF NEXT GREEK LOAN WILL BE - BBG

But the most ominous of all:

  • IMF SAYS 'PRIOR ACTIONS' LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED BEFORE FUND OK OF NEW GREEK LOAN PROGRAM - DOW JONES

By the way, dear US taxpayer, the IMF - that's you.

 

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Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:39 | 2141781 redpill
redpill's picture

END THE IMF, END THE FED, END THIS CHARADE

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:47 | 2141823 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Flee why you still have some assets Greece! Get out of the EU, for the sake of your children.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:57 | 2141886 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

"Dear Loan Officer Reynolds,

As requested by your office that I submit this in writing, I pledge to make $5 million dollars more next year.   This should assuage your expressed concerns about how I'll be able to pay for my application to purchase respective vacation house in the Hamptons on our agreed upon terms of 6% interest on a 40-year mortgage amortization schedule.  

Sincerely,      

Bob Sakamano,  McDonald's French Fry Night Shift Supervisor, East Hampton"

 

 

 

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:59 | 2141896 pods
pods's picture

Seems that Confessions of and Economic Hitman was not a work of fiction.

Morpheus, if you are listening, please come and get me!

pods

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:07 | 2141934 stewie
stewie's picture

Knock Knock, pods...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 13:09 | 2142325 pods
pods's picture

Trinity?

:)

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:24 | 2141911 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Official prediction:

They'll formally wrap up a bailout of Greece by Monday or Tuesday.

They'll formally wrap up a bailout of Portugal, Ireland, Span & Italy within  6 months, and probably sooner.

Every country on the list will default under the terms of the amendments to the Eurozone Treaty that allow for the bailouts within 2 years, at most, and many will default well under a year.

Every PIIGS nation is already now in recession if one were to use an honest GDP metric, and these recessions will deepen post bailouts, which will make it even less likely they can significantly make good on the core requirements of their bailout provisions.

Germany will see the largest number of incumbents voted out of office in its post WW-II election history, with anti-EU legislators being elected in massive numbers.

The ECB will have to print a minimum €2.5 trillion to €3 trillion over the next 18 months just to recapitalize the Eurozone Member banks for a long enough period of time to prevent governments from running out of funding. On top of this, an additional €3 trillion will have to be printed during the subsequent 12 months in order to float social programs among PIIGS members during what will be a period of highly contractionary economic activity to avoid having another public Eurozone Debt crisis forcing the types of negotiations and the process we're seeing right now, prior to mid 2014.

Inflation will run so high that it will bring about constant 'no confidence' parliamentary votes throughout the Eurozone Member states for the foreseeable future.

The Eurozone will either be dissolved or dramatically shrunk by 2015.

The U.S. will see a credit contraction at least as large as it saw during 2008, and US and UK investment banks will suffer huge losses as a result of the European crisis even given that the ECB is going to print, at minimum, an aggregrate 5.5 trillion euros, (but probably closer to 20% more than that) because these euros won't be used to recapitalize non- EU based banks, but rather flow nearly exclusively to try to and recapitalize EU banks and support PIIGS social program spending over the next 2 1/2 years, and US and UK investment bank unhedged losses will run deep.

The ECB balance sheet will dwarf the Fed's balance sheet within 12 months, but contrary to popular investor opinion, there will many forces acting to seriously restrain Bernanke's ability to do what he and the other doves on the FOMC want to do in the form of using the ECB's newfound status as bad central bank as an excuse to significantly expand the Fed's balance sheet (one of which will be an even more contentious U.S. Executive Branch-Legislative Branch relationship, and another being cost-push inflation in the U.S. running very hot despite economic malaise).

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:25 | 2142032 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

And the bad news is?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:22 | 2142014 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Relax, the re-routing of real goods and services is going to end a number of things shortly.  hedge accordingly.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 13:13 | 2142357 carguym14
carguym14's picture

Hmmmm,which candidate would be the best hope for doing that????

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:39 | 2141783 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Great twist, too bad I stopped paying attention in 2010.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:40 | 2141786 Irish66
Irish66's picture

I could just throw up this morning

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:45 | 2141813 EyeQ
EyeQ's picture

i've had stock morning sickness for the past 4-1/2 months!!!!!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:55 | 2141873 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

So based on precedent in the market, in another 4.5 months you'll give birth to a fully developed fraud?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:40 | 2141787 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Republican congress will not vote any more bailout money for the IMF.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:45 | 2141816 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

At least not until Europe pulls a Hank Paulson and says refusal to bail out Europe will result in Martial Law in America (which is inevitable anyway).

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:16 | 2141979 Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

You mean we don't have it already?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:45 | 2141818 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

HA! Who says any money to the IMF has to be voted on by Congress???

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:56 | 2141880 Red Raspberry
Red Raspberry's picture

Not until Romney is elected that is.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:56 | 2141881 Red Raspberry
Red Raspberry's picture

Not until Romney is elected that is.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:00 | 2141898 john39
john39's picture

don't think that is going to happen.  the point of the republican puppet show/primary is to make sure that bwak obomber is re-elected.   why would the fascists change horses when they don't have to?  so far obomber is getting the cabal's dirty deeds done, so he is the man, until they need to throw him under the bus.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:24 | 2142026 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Right, at least not until the appropriate pork is attached.  Still believe in that old two-party lie?  Same as it ever was.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:40 | 2141792 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

who cares what the IMF says... BTF 3 handle dip!!!!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:44 | 2141807 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

+100,000

We will keep running the Packer sweep until they stop it.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:15 | 2141974 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

Exactly! Naz green, Dow green, Spooz will be green in 3..2..1... TOUCHDOWN team Ben Shalom!!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:41 | 2141795 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

and back down...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:43 | 2141802 Roland99
Roland99's picture

oh, so the IMF is just saying they'll give Greece a reach-around?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:48 | 2141832 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Or is this the IMF just looking to soften the perceived impact as viewed by the "citizens" on the ground in Greece and Germany? Dithering tends to lead to disinterest, or at least to confusion.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:44 | 2141805 CreativeDestructor
CreativeDestructor's picture

Sing LTRO just like YMCA, sounds fun!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:44 | 2141806 taniquetil
taniquetil's picture

Eurozone Resolution, Coming to a Theater near you in 2012

 

Directed by M. Night Shyamalan

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:46 | 2141820 Cunning Lingers
Cunning Lingers's picture

What else is valuable in Greece?

They will likely demand the mortgage of all valuable state assets as collateral if actions not met.

 

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:48 | 2141827 Flying Dutchman
Flying Dutchman's picture

Ha, Ha, Ha,

The Euro; It’s our currency, It’s your problem.

I like your former president.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:48 | 2141831 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

Offer the German's a gyro

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:48 | 2141833 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

lol so all we have to do to grow is "pledge" to grow.

 

In that case I pledge to grow as well.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:48 | 2141834 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Gary Busey files for Chapter 7 BK....

 

LOL....

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:52 | 2141851 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

He must have been following your investment advice.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:24 | 2142027 Hulk
Hulk's picture

He should have purchased PM's and a helmet, instead of Blo and hookers...

 

LOL...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:49 | 2141837 flyonmywall
flyonmywall's picture

The only thing that they are concerned about is to not violate the first rule of investing "Thou shalt not lose principal". The only problem is, this rule is being enforced on the backs of the Greek people, their elderly, their sick and their children. Sooner or later, something is going to have to give. You can't have a financial circle jerk forever, without somebody blowing a load at some point.

The question is, whose face is it going to hit?

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:10 | 2141949 pods
pods's picture

Even worse, this will result in the wholesale looting of anything in Greece.  

I do hope that this shows the world exactly how the banksters, who whip money out of thin air and charge everyone interest to borrow it, really do need a good dose of humility.

Preferebly @3000 fps.

pods

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:49 | 2141841 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

Put George Bush in as prez of Greece, the current guy isn't dumb enuf

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:49 | 2141842 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

According to the Dutch and German finance ministers: "there will be NO deal today".

So it looks like this should push the EUR/USD and /Es higher since it means that the next deal will surely be the perfect deal.

This has gotten so very tiresome.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:51 | 2141848 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Whatevs.... Tired of all of this bullshit. I get it I get it Robo is right: Buy stocks! Lever up, the trend is your friend blah blah blah. Okay done - Now how do I get me one of them million dollar bonuses?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:04 | 2141916 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"...how do I get me one of them million dollar bonuses?"

I'll give you a hint:

It rhymes with 'Glee Fads'.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:52 | 2141853 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

WTF?

""An important initial step was to get the agreement among the coalition leaders in Athens and the next step is to continue the discussions on that basis," IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told a regular press briefing." - RTRS

So...it's not only NOT OVER...it's JUST GETTING STARTED???!!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:54 | 2141863 vegas
vegas's picture

They should put this shit in a reality TV show. Entertainment at its finest. Maybe then sheeple would wake up to the fact that all the emperors of europe have no clothes.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:56 | 2141882 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Soo.. When is the next meeting for the new plan? /sarc.

 

The only noteworthy news I have heard out of the Blurr -O- Zone was that Greece, Italy and Portugal may go broke.  

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:58 | 2141894 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Go long on boiled rope when this all ends. The government leaders are just puppets for the bankers.

Greece is defaulting one way or the other.  Just pick your time frame.

At least the US is better. Our citizens have guns and ammo. All those drones will be useless.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 11:59 | 2141897 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

"IMF SAYS 'PRIOR ACTIONS' LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED BEFORE FUND OK OF NEW GREEK LOAN PROGRAM "

A little slow today, what is this supposed to mean exactly as it is phrased awkwardly? 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:04 | 2141919 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Calmyourself, I will break down the cryptography of the "message".

 

"IMF SAYS 'PRIOR ACTIONS' LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED"

Do nothing as usual..

 "BEFORE FUND OK OF NEW GREEK LOAN PROGRAM "

Schedule another meeting.

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:00 | 2141903 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Somewhere, John Pilger is paying, "I told you so, motherfuckers!"

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:03 | 2141910 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

 

 

 

Comments from dumb cunt money men via BB:

Fucking idiots, with asshats like this, it makes me feel like I'm a fucking prodigious savant.

 

It looks like Greece is on a path to address its issues,” Michael Finnegan, chief investment officer at Principal Funds Inc. in Des Moines, Iowa, said in a telephone interview. His firm oversees $62.9 billion. “Everybody realizes what needs to get done. There are political challenges, but the consequences if they don’t are just too severe.”

 

Yes, they are on a path alright, a path to death and destruction you fucktard!!!

Michael Finnegan, congratualtions, you FAIL.

And another gem from this fucking rocket surgeon:

 

 “The market is very, very tenuous,” Michael Crofton, chief executive officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., said in a telephone interview. His firm manages about $1.7 billion. “Austerity is the opposite of growth. Austerity could force Greece into a depression, which would force them back to the table to ask for more aid.

 

The only thing that is tenuous is your fucking grasp of the greek situation and your cognitive analytical skills you fuckwit.

Here is a little hint for you bitch...GREECE IS ALREADY IN A DEPRESSION...HELLLO...MC-FLY....HELLO!!!!

HAHAAHAHAHA, WTF!!!!

 

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:05 | 2141926 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

does anyone know where i could get the current loss reserves on jpm, citi, ms, and gs as well as their individual soveriegn debt exposure

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:06 | 2141933 Ben Burnyankme
Ben Burnyankme's picture

Who's going to pay for the 70% haircut on Greek Bonds if this deal gets done?  The 5 largest US Banks wrote much of the CDS (97%)bought as insurance by the European Banks who hold this toilet paper.  Let see if the ISDA says that this is not technically a default so the CDS don't have to pay.  Then who bails them out?  The ISDA is controlled by these same 5 banks so we know their won't be default called.  Draghi, fire up your press!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:13 | 2141965 mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

where did you obtain the 97% figure I would love to read about that...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:22 | 2142015 Ben Burnyankme
Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:26 | 2142036 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

You are. (assuming you are somebody with a salary who works in a G20 country)

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:08 | 2141943 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

if I were Obuma I would legalize drugs by telling DEA DOJ to stop all actions against drug crime.

why? because we need a public that is even more lobotomized to accept the TSA/HLS/FBI and

corrupt gov hacks protecting big banks/FED and corps (GE comes to mind)..take your soma good citizen all is well all is well.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:24 | 2142025 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Already taken care of. When you do some reading on where the money flows from Mexican cartels, it's pretty obvious the "war on drugs" is just the best way of reaping economic benefit while conveniently distracting and criminalizing the lower class. Ever heard of the opium war?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:46 | 2142173 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Oh hush up on this. The war on drugs is THE most effective agricultural price support program the US Government has EVER come up with. End it and my local economy would go from the edge of recession to deep shit depression for the forseeable future, good dope would go for $100 pound plus taxes (another $200 or so), and all those dope cops would be free to check whether or not you are paying cash for your coffee at the local internet cafe. 

Be careful what you wish for...

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:10 | 2141953 Roland99
Roland99's picture

now they're picking nits over the volume of paperwork?

 

Why didn't they just use a larger font, wider margins, and triple-spaced lines?

 

What a bunch of monkeys

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:18 | 2141991 Conman
Conman's picture

I'd assume its more about details on how they plan to implment said reforms.

Example:

Greeks: We will cut 150,000 governemnt workers

IMF: You sure, how will you do this, do you have enough tear gas and riot gear?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:13 | 2141968 digalert
digalert's picture

IMF SAYS IT'S NOT FORCING AUSTERITY?

Kinda like the TSA removing elders clothes, ripping off colostomy bags and saying "we don't call it a strip search"?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:20 | 2142007 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Hearing that deal was just an empty promise was a sure as night following day. Who gives a shit? Show me the measurable change in outcomes while I press the mute button.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:41 | 2142138 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Just print until you can give every man, woman, and child what they are owed by the banks and the bond markets, globally. Shut down the current banking system and government. Start over.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 15:09 | 2143011 smiler03
smiler03's picture

+1   Agreed, but... I don't owe anybody any money. Can I still have some free cash?

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:42 | 2142145 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Looks like the IMF is calling the Greeks bluff. They have no intentions of living up to the promises as it would mean revolution.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:43 | 2142149 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

What a bloody effin soap opera.  And we all pretty much know how its going to end

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:56 | 2142246 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

It all ends well. McDonalds (tm) buys the Parthenon, builds a 360 degree view resturant inside it and installs a high-speed elevator, cleans up the grounds (presently a little bare and rocky), plants an attractive flower garden to go with the kid's playground, and prosperity returns to Greece!

Bunch of damn naysayers on this blog, I must say.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:59 | 2142268 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Lines from one of my all time favorite songs, Bad Moon Rising ...from CCR:

 

I hear hurricanes a blowing.
I know the end is coming soon.
I fear rivers over flowing.
I hear the voice of rage and ruin.

Don't go around tonight,
Well, it's bound to take your life,
There's a bad moon on the rise.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 12:59 | 2142272 metastar
metastar's picture

50 Pages?? I wish my mortgage paperwork was only 50 pages!

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 13:12 | 2142348 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

I hope someone has Bens hands tied.

I am sure he thinks he can ride in and save the world.

WHY, should anyone believe Greece is really gonna implement anything it promises?

The true definiton of insanity.

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 14:19 | 2142771 PORTA PORTA
PORTA PORTA's picture

MUST READ !! 20 Popular Fallacies Concerning Debt Crisis GREECE

http://www.scribd.com/doc/81080885/20-Popular-Fallacies-Concerning-Th-De...

MUST READ !!

PP

Thu, 02/09/2012 - 18:23 | 2143769 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Yeah, the IMF....that's what we call our foreign aid, so we don't have to call it "foreign aid" anymore.

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