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The Greek Decision Has Grown Spanish Branches

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It remains tough to handicap the results of this weekend's events - most notably Greek elections (though Egypt could be the blacker swan of the two). It seems New Domocracy has a slight edge on SYRIZA at the bookies in Europe but the most likely event remains that no single party would have a sufficient majority to forma government and coalition talks will be required. Barclays expanded decision tree is 'everything you wanted to know about European uncertainties but were afraid to ask' and along with our earlier note of what to expect from asset class returns in the various scenarios provides the key guide to positioning into and beyond the weekend.

 

Source: Barclays

 

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Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:44 | 2529678 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Critical mass bitches.

The funny thing about a Ponzi is that at the end everything is connected.

Except my paycheck/job/pension/social security/restful night's sleep.

Right? Right??

RIGHT??????

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:45 | 2529695 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

I'm stockpiling olive oil as we speak !

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:16 | 2529810 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Central banks have a variety of responses ready and waiting for each scenario. Review the decision tree, discuss, make a few phone calls, go to press.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:37 | 2529895 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

...no single party would have a sufficient majority to form a government and coalition talks will be required...

the EU bookies are on the same page as slewie for 6 weeks now

>>>we should not necessarily assume the greek-elect will wish to form a goobermint

therefore: talks may not be required<<<

i have written of the analysis behind this thought so many times i can't even remember it anymore

however, i've found my bong, BiCheZ!

this seem reasonable to youse?  why tf would antonioSam and panchoV-pieHole try to govern this mess so greece can get moMoney?    greece is so broke that if they just do nothing, the EU will start throwing digits their way by next thurday, at the latest, just to protect angela's "options"

i think if greece just has an attack of the vapors and hits that great 7000 y.o. fainting couch in an electoral and fiscal dionysian ecstasis of twitching and uttering inspired threats of doom---that's a pretty good plan considering they would really fuk up anything else at this point...

they can and should:  do nada + zilch;  and, we must trust them to rise to the occasion!

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 15:00 | 2530309 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Slewie, as a pirate, you should take a hit on this: no government gets formed, so the military pulls (another) coup and takes over the mess. It has been less than 50 years since Greece had a mililtary coup, maybe they are ready for another one.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 15:46 | 2530498 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

ordinarily, the greek military might dust off the old epaulettes and braid for the photo-op, but w/ antonioSam & V-man able to govern (+/- syriZZZa, depending) i think people will chill

besides, even the starchiest military should be anarchists by now...

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:24 | 2529848 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

So there are connections that do not appear on the chart that will affect the outcome... like someone who is over-leveraged and needs their money back...

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 21:36 | 2531169 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

They are afraid of Greece because when they default one way or the other the 500 billion or more in bonds will default.  And when these do it will be on the books of Spain, Italy, Germany (don't know by how much) and other European countries banks.  And the market will know it and on top of it all the CDS's will be triggered and we don't know how much Derivatives and how levereaged that 500 billion is (bet in the Trillions).

And what happens it starts buildiing momentum and if enough momentum builds, nothing you do may be able to stop it and the only thing to do is to get out of the way.  I truly think that Germany has already setup the instruments to protect it's banks, but most of Europe hasn't and want Germany to bail them out.  Germany knows what is happening, they are being told and asked to continue and continue until they are stuck also and just as week as the rest of them.  It's a devious plan in a sense, if Germany says know then the rest of the EU goes down in inflation and deflation (possible stagflation) along with the US getting hit.  And then they would be okay and with money and the EU or rest of Europe doesn't want that.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:40 | 2529682 somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

"The Greek Decision Has Grown Spanish Branches"

 

Glad to see they're growing something...

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:28 | 2529872 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Not the Greeks...

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:41 | 2529685 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Well where's the part about Egypt?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:30 | 2529879 old naughty
old naughty's picture

they are thinking...they are thinking.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:44 | 2529690 Olympia
Olympia's picture

Germans plunge Europe into a new Medieval Era.

Are they ready to take that risk ?

It was Germany that took huge loans from the American FED. It was Germany that put the markets up to buying ownership shares of the European Central Bank, which has burdened the States with sins. It was this State that lured the rest of the Europeans into a dissolute life so that it can pass the burden of its debts, hence its own sin to them. The current epidemic of debt crisis has begun from Germany, it is just that it kept its disease a secret and at the expense of everybody else, and now that it is in a better shape, it has gone hunting in order to take advantage of the disease it itself had created. The first State to have sickened has gone hunting for the one who was most weak in dealing with the disease, and that was Greece. If Germany had not been over-indebted, the European states would have never been vulnerable to the markets’ attacks.  If Germany had not been over-indebted the European states would have never been forced to mortgage their existence so that Germany’s bosses can get their money.

________________

The Eastern gates of Europe at risk: How Northern Europe shoots itself in the leg

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/05/greece-among-salem-witches.html

Authored by Panagiotis Traianou

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:51 | 2529712 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Oh Pleeease!

Plenty of blame to go around, including me and my small part in this clusterfuck. At some point or another we all looked away when something inside told us there was a skunk in the wood pile.

Victimhood! It's what's for dinner. And the table is overflowing.

When will we (the collective "we") realize that embracing victimhood is what paralyzes us and enables the sociopaths to plunder unmolested?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:54 | 2529726 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Woodpile skunks are tradeable it appears.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:34 | 2529896 old naughty
old naughty's picture

what about skunks on-your-front-steps?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:49 | 2529929 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

fiat rabies

they want to come in and see what the MSM is saying

i'll tell yer wife to put some clothes on and we'll drive over and shoot it for ya, ok?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:35 | 2529906 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Well said, CD.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:03 | 2529753 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Apparently, there are either no mirrors in Greece or some Greeks are afraid to look at themselves in the mirror.

Blaming Germany or using Germany to obfiscate away from the truth for any part of the current Greek problems is the height of amateurism or immaturity. 

As a sovereign entity with their own, sovereign politicians, the Greeks made their problems (i.e., years of state corruption and tax evasion/fraud combined with a low productivity rate), exacerbated their problem (paying social benefits they could not afford, thereby draining he Treasury) and then "jumped ship" (doubling down on sovereign debt, all while the wealthy Greeks -potential economic growth facilitators- moved to London).

Now, blaming outsiders is the "cherry on top of the sundae" finalizing why Gtreece must be set free from the Euro.  It needs to get its own house in order, all by its lonesome, sovereign self.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:44 | 2529691 pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

A good diagram that shows that just as soon as the Greek election "pings", the little ball cursor goes over the Spanish bank/sinkhole and "pongs".

And then to Italy, and then to a random PIIGS, and to Berlin, and then to whereever.   

Germany eventually tells all the batty-aunts-in-the-attic to gtfo, and so let the Germans get back to making automobiles and sausage.   

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:44 | 2529693 24KGOLD FOIL HAT
24KGOLD FOIL HAT's picture

Cant wait to see the true version by banzai7

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:46 | 2529697 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

You mean that Spain is engaging in Greco-Roman austerity wrestling too?

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/15/greco-roman-wrestling...

Farage was right. I is like watching The Titanic after it struck the iceberg.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:51 | 2529711 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Decision Tree bitchezzz.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:54 | 2529722 eurusdog
eurusdog's picture

With all the doom and gloom, the likely outcome has been priced and not market reaction to any of the outcomes, as the lamb on the table continue to bleed out slowly.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:55 | 2529731 Clayton Bigsby
Clayton Bigsby's picture

Where is the "We are so fucked!" branch?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:58 | 2529743 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

That's not a branch.  It's the whole fucking tree.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:06 | 2529752 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

The Banks are going to a lot of effort to threaten Greece into compliance.

Germany will stonewall SYRIZA's demands on the front end and bribe on the back.

If this does not work you will need another chart.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:02 | 2529757 pschwammerl
pschwammerl's picture

Seems only the upcoming mega-printing is priced in

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:19 | 2529832 AmenRa
AmenRa's picture

Why does every answer have "a rally in risky assets and a sell off in bonds"?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:41 | 2529925 yourmomma
yourmomma's picture

This is LOL funny.  So no matter what happens, either unilateral currency devaluation or global, that will make risky assets worth more.  It seems to me that if the EU either devalues, making the dollar worth more and all the top line sales that have benefitted from Euro appreciation for US MNCs shrink, or it breaks apart into Northern Euros and one or more Southern Euros. 

There is simply no way that any attempt at a bunch of finance dorks are going to convince "the People" of Europe, who have invented the concept of nationalistic war and hated each other and the ethnic minorities in their own countries since 100 AD, to join up.  Even if the elites impose a new government, people will just riot.

If this line of thinking is what "bankers" do then we should not backstop them.  They are simply morons.  They think that if you push the "print money" buttom, in whatever form, that makes risky ventures worth more.  They've clearly never run a real business because that isn't the case.  Nor have they ever understood political economies.

The Panic of 1819 is a must read.  All this crap has been tried for hundreds of years.  All the policy response in the world is only creating more and more uncontrollable distortions.  

Risky assets cannot really be worth more where there is less sovereignty, less certainty, more rule by buraucratic whim, less market pricing of funding, and fewer people working/assets at work to generate real output.

If all these guys are talking about is that they think the stock market will go up no matter what then, well, that has to be priced in already (and it sure seems like it with S&P way over 800 or 900).  Large corporations and government with no other production and an idle population is going to lead to either revolution or cheap-labor small businesses competing with bloated corporations filled with MBAs who cannot wipe their own ass.

 

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 18:04 | 2530885 Catequil
Catequil's picture

Could not agree more to what you say....

I see the reverse of the globilization coming and that's fragmentation. Unfortunately, fragmentation will come at a social price - riots, rebellions, revolutions & wars etc.

... Unless, some really major scientific discovery with real and immediate implications is made before the system falls apart - like free source of energy, teleportation, or whatever. And that would only postpone the processes at work for another century or so...

Truth is, that our civilization has reached its critical mass in terms of corruption, greed, materialism and absence of moral. And historians point at these very same symptoms as the cause for the Roman civilization to fall. At the end, history repeats itself....

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:53 | 2529978 mantrid
mantrid's picture

all paths lead to rally in risky assets! BULL(SHIT)ISH!!!

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 14:54 | 2530288 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Rally warning continues...

SPX & EURUSD bullish daily charts dominate further.

As mentioned, shorts will be slaughtered next week.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 18:53 | 2530972 obejoyful
obejoyful's picture

Retard

Fri, 07/06/2012 - 22:20 | 2593994 clf123456
clf123456's picture

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Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:38 | 2644441 agagshoes
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