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The Greek Decision-Tree

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With 5 days to go until we have a rerun of the Greek election, which most likely will result in another hung jury parliament (and we are being metaphoric here) as we expected before even the first election, here once again is reminder of the complete Greek decision tree that is set to unfold once again starting Sunday night. The one thing we can definitively say: this is one tree that money definitely not grow on. Or olives.

 

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Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:10 | 2518518 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

All (Ponzi) decision trees lead to the same spot.

Servitude.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:12 | 2518533 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 ( eloquent response )

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:25 | 2519095 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Was that a feeble attempt at humor? 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 16:19 | 2519370 IAmJohnGalt
IAmJohnGalt's picture

I suspect parliament will hang

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:19 | 2518805 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I am shocked! I don't see anywhere the branch that leads to the utter distruction of the currency formerly known as Euro! I demand a better tree!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:10 | 2518525 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

Athens will BURN......

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:11 | 2518527 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Chop the tree down.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:07 | 2518745 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

What kind of a tree is this? Where is the branch with the rope swinging from it?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:56 | 2518984 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

The Greek "decision axe" (the upcoming referendum) will take that tree down.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:13 | 2518536 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Pro bailout forces will win but there will be acusations of voter fraud, which their will be, mass upheavel and  civil war expanding across the Eurpoean continent will insue.  Pro bailouters against the antibailouters, an all out slugfest.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:23 | 2518566 Tirpitz
Tirpitz's picture

You got a point here, although I disagree with the 'pro bailouters' there - just doubt there are that many of them around.

The necessary outcome of the election is clear, so now they have to figure out how to run the Diebold voting machines and whether, or how, to count each vote, to ensure continued subordination of the Greek people.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:21 | 2518560 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

The basic problem with decision trees is that they lead to conclusions...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:22 | 2518570 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Regardless of the decisions made, the 'Impact' on Greece and EU/Markets is far too optimistic IMHO.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:23 | 2518573 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Is there any scenario where Merkel, Rompoy and Barosso are hanging from a tree branch?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:24 | 2518577 Tirpitz
Tirpitz's picture

Side by side? Now, that would be the optimistic view...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:35 | 2518615 tomAsss
tomAsss's picture

yap..

that is scenario from Euro war/revolution part 2, when pesents hang Banksters instead royals

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:35 | 2518877 uhb
uhb's picture

will never happen they are called sheeple 4 a reason

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:03 | 2518719 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

That decision tree needs a few more branches.  good point.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:08 | 2518744 magpie
magpie's picture

"If we do not hang together, we will surely hang seperately."

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:25 | 2518579 falak pema
falak pema's picture

decision tree amongst Oligarchs and their surrogates be damned, what is important is the outcome for world finance. And its ominous to see what impact a small pebble in the shoe of the banksta cabal, that Greece be, can have on the whole shooting match in case of Greeks repudiating bail out. Neither the US nor the Germans care a damn about the sort of the people of Greece caught in the nets of the Oligarchy cabal. Its a sickening reality of financial rapist mentality that is now the NORM in western civilization.

"For the sake of a horse shoe the battle was lost". 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:26 | 2518582 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Of course you will have a hung Parliment just like we have a hung Legislature in the US.  Half of the country wants to live off of what the other half of the country earns.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:29 | 2518595 Zaydac
Zaydac's picture

So what is all the fuss about? None of the outcomes seem particularly bad for anyone except Greece and I haven't noticed many Greeks in top positions in international finance. The trite answer is that contagion is the cause of the fuss, but that was presumably factored in to the possible ouctomes 2 and 3, and these don't seem catastrophic.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:31 | 2518600 Diplodicus Rex
Diplodicus Rex's picture

"Greece Unlikely to Be Able to Credibly Establish a New Currency"

Excuse my ignorance on the subject but why is this true, if it is indeed true? Transactions will still have to occur at the most local level. People will still want to trade goods. At base level, a barter system will exist. A step up from that, a commodity will be used as an intermediary (sea shells for example) and eventually a replacement currency will come into play as confidence in that currency rises. That currency might even be named, the "Drachma". To say that "Greece Unlikely....to Establish a New Currency" is to say that it will forever more remain in the barter stage of the process. That cannot be, surely? Natural forces will cause a currency or a basket of competing currencies of some description to materialise. People will not sit around navel gazing whilst they starve.

 

Eat the Banksters

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:27 | 2518836 noses
noses's picture

Well...

 

Greece can't even produce enough heigh-tech goods to satisfy basic needs. Just take a look at the health sector (read the Spiegel Online yourself). They are so badly behind in paying for material that they did not only run out of complicated resources like stents for coronary stabilization (et the fat pigs bite the dust after a heart attack, nobody will miss them) but out of basic things like gloves or rubbing alcohol. [Remember: Greece is the land with most penis extension surgeries per capita – I'm wondering how many dicks are currently falling off due to lack of post-surgery hygiene…] There is no toilet paper in hospitals. There are no needles/catheters or syringes. People have to buy equipment and medicine in pharmacies (using cash as the health insurance isn't going to pay anyway). Bring in food. And toilet paper. I've heard the same about q few African shitholes…

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:06 | 2519028 walküre
walküre's picture

Correct. I'm going to look at Greece AFTER the Euro for investment purposes. Investing there now would be the stupidest thing to do unless of course, there's incentive from the pigmen to invest there and save their bacon. So far the pigmen haven't given any incentives. So why? It's not like the money is real anyway.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 03:17 | 2520638 StychoKiller
Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:31 | 2518602 vh070
vh070's picture

Still waiting for the pigeons to come home.  Will this ever end?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:32 | 2518606 mantrid
mantrid's picture

the tree is incomplete. how about this branch: EU and Germany capitulate and agree to provide free lunch for some more time, Syriza keeps "renegotiating" the deal for months blaming opposition for continued status quo misery (after all everyone has a price, right?), EU elites draw another rabbit from the hat and kick the can suprisingly far, and when everybody is convinced about imminent eurogeddon focus moves on to USA and its debt limit opera sequel just a few months before the election. no one remembers Greece anymore just as no one remembers "imminent" attack on Iran and crude at $200.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:33 | 2518611 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Decision Tree?

Nah, more like a stump with a big, bound-up root ball attached.  As always, more water and fertilizer is the solution!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:46 | 2518658 funthea
funthea's picture

The Greeks can leave the Euro Zone, yet still use the Euros they have for trade, to one another or anyone else. This could be done until a new currency was produced. It's not like the Euros in their pockets will suddenly catch on fire.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:01 | 2518712 magpie
magpie's picture

Airlift Iraqi Dinars ?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:53 | 2518680 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

Fast Exit:  Greece Unlikely....Credible New Currency.  Why Not?  It might trade very, very cheap but they could still do it.  And Exports would rock!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:54 | 2518684 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

Apologies for Redundancy

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 13:56 | 2518694 EvangelosA
EvangelosA's picture

You guys are missing a simple thing...

Veto power of Greece within EU Commission, eurogroup and summit etc ...

If we start vetoing everything in EU there will not even have toilet paper in Brussels toilets…

Why to do that? Isn’t it a hostile act to cut off Target 2 without our approval? Did Greeks made all this mess with deposit imbalances? Do you know that our SMEs have a probability to get a loan of 30% while German SMEs have 87%? Do you know that in 2007 we had a probability of 75% and the same Germans? Now with our money Austrians, Germans and Finland’s have almost 90% chances…!!!

What if we had a banking union and all our SMEs didn’t be cut off as they are for the last 3 years from the Greek banking system? I assure you that today’s deficit would be 4% because the recession wouldn’t be 7% and 6% the last years since the private sector would work and absorb the shock… So whose fault is?

Look guys the plan is different, we will cut public budged to a slight surplus so state will not have liquidity issues and off course it will be hard for us but if we are offended then we are entering to a real economic war mode… so expect for EU only the worst…

GET THAT we will NOT exit euro no matter what… even if we have to eat olives from the trees… and expect not even one decision that needs our signature to pass from EU… It’s easier for us to stay afloat for another 12 months and wait Spain, France and Italy to explode…

It’s better for Germany to exit euro and EU… it’s faster and more efficient, for all the rest of us… If they want to stay, better to behave…

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:30 | 2518848 Olympia
Olympia's picture

The method used in the case of Greece is a version of the practice that started from the imperialistic centers to expand all over the world. Simply, in Greece, that is a “terminal”, banking illegal superprofits were produced so that loan sharks “spoil” the Greek public assets, while at the “center” of the planning banking superprofits were created so that loan sharks “spoil” the "Greeces”. Exactly the same illegal things were planned to bring profit to their loan sharking inspirators ...illegal profits.

More info about Global Debt Crisis here:

http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/05/greece-among-salem-witches.html

All these people can be sure of one thing only. They are not done with this. They are not done with the Greeks. You do not hunt witches so recklessly, because they might be actual witches.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:13 | 2519045 walküre
walküre's picture

The pigmen aren't done when Greece is finished. Their next targets are Spain and Italy, then France. Banking super profits based on bogus debt contracts and transactions. Fees on derivatives that were pulled like rabbits out of a hat. We were pretty stupid and blind to let it go on for so long. Nobody gets so rich without committing a crime of some sort. I hope the Greeks vote against the bailout, against the Euro and against anything the pigmen bankers have in store for them. Vote like Iceland, then follow-up with swift regime change and take the existing scoundrels out behind the wood shed. They need a good beating. Teach them a lesson and show the bankers who is in charge. The bankers will retreat and go after their next victim. Bankers don't like losing. Hopefuly the Spaniards are paying close attention and then kick it up a notch. Close the door on the bankers before they can even start to negotiate.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:17 | 2519060 Olympia
Olympia's picture

Very well said.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:45 | 2518923 edotabin
edotabin's picture

genius, genius

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:51 | 2518937 noses
noses's picture

You still don't get it, do you? Greece can't "leave the Euro" without formally leaving the EU. Which means Greece become something like south-east Anatolia. So much about annoying the rest of Europe. And yes, the rest of the EU can kick a nation out for the most idiotic reasons if the chose to.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:25 | 2519096 walküre
walküre's picture

I think you're wrong here. There's no precedent but show me the EU contract where it says that a nation cannot abandon the common currency without breaking ever other EU agreement.

Greeks can toss the Euro and stay in the EU if that made sense. But it doesn't make sense because the EU is done anyway. As soon as Greece goes, the Italians who are directly competing with Greece will start to squirm. Tariffs on Greek imports into the EU could be skyhigh, it wouldn't matter. Greece can work around those as well.

Guess what the likelyhood of Croatia to join the EU is going to be when Greece is gone? NADA

EU is falling apart at the fringes and that is a good thing.

Many unemployed Eurocrats left without victims they can torture with their stupid bureaucracy.

Break up the whole EU bullshit and let everyone do their own thing. It worked better and we had variety. Europe is not US of A and never will be.

NO FEDERAL EUROPE

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:19 | 2519069 walküre
walküre's picture

Greece's economy would be flourishing without the shackles of the Euro and the bureaucratic bullshit from Eurocrats. I wish Germany could diss the Euro as quickly as Greece can but that won't happen anytime soon.

Here's your choice. Now is your time to vote against the stupidest of all bureaucracies EVER - BRUSSELS and against the stupidest of all currencies EVER - the EURO.

Get your Drachmas back. Devalue and see how quickly the foreign investments are coming back into Greece (if you want them).

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:18 | 2518802 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

Greece just lost 2-1 to the Czechs at Euro 2012.

 

They play Russia, the strongest team in the group on Saturday. If they lose, ALL of Greece will be MAD - and they go to the polls on Sunday!

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:53 | 2519207 zippy_uk
zippy_uk's picture

Good point - Barroso and Rumpy are on the phone to the Kremlin now explaining the situation.

 

There is no doubt that Putin will only be too happy to assist a major power block next to Russia

in their hour of neeed.

 

/Sarc=OFF

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:27 | 2518831 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Well, this is easy. They'll take Door #1.  I confess I do not understand how the consequences of Door #1 are that everything is peachy, since to me it is pure can-kicking, Grecian Style.  Nothing is fixed.  The pols in Greece would be fools not to play this out somewhere between Door No. 1 and Door No. 2 to keep their options, and the opportunities for austerity renegotiation open.   

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:58 | 2518992 zippy_uk
zippy_uk's picture

Tyler - the Greeks don't need to grow olives on this tree. Just fake some reciepts and forward to the EU to recieve further subsidies (gratitude payments forwarded to the key people in the post). This is how business has traditionally always been done so why change now. It follows also that the EU banking "solutions" should follow the the same model.

There is a reason the EU accounts don't get signed off each year - ITS POLICY.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:46 | 2519173 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Don't really think the Greeks will "do" anything except hold out a tin cup.

It's always worked so far, why change?

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