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A Greek Default Doesn't Need To Be Chaotic For Greece
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
A Greek Default Doesn't Need To Be Chaotic For Greece
The rhetoric coming out of Greece has reached a fever pitch.
Papademos and Samaras are both out their creating dire images of a post apocalyptic Greek state if a default occurs. Maybe it is a good time to remember what Papademos’ job is. He wasn’t elected. He doesn’t represent the Greek people in a fashion that we are used to – running for election and winning the election. He was foisted on the Greek people by the EU – the very people he is going through the motions of negotiating with. His JOB was to get the Greeks to accept what the EU wants. If he isn’t the most conflicted politician of all time, he is right up there.
Samaras may believe it, or may have decided this is his best route to power when the vote is passed and the Greek people decide to kick Papademos out (remember, he was never voted in).
Either of them would be more credible if they made any attempt to explain why it would be so disastrous. So far, not one basic fact to support the chaos theory has been given. I will admit that if Greece defaults without any preparation, it would be extremely ugly, but there is no reason not to be prepared.
So, if I was the Greek Finance Minister (I would probably have a longer last name, with more vowels) here is an outline of how I would prepare for default.
Get New Money
Yes, the first step to a successful default, is securing new money for after the default. In the corporate world this would be DIP or Debtor in Possession financing. The difficulty with enforcing claims on a sovereign is key here. It is key because it is much easier for a country to walk away its debt than a corporation, but that also makes it trickier to get new debt once you have stopped paying existing debt. You are likely to need a “special type” of investor to provide post-default financing.
The IMF will be hurt by the default, but honestly, one of their primary mandates is to help countries in need. They lost control in Greece. They got caught up in the demands of the EU and actually didn’t implement a program like they normally would. If you look at how the IMF operates in other countries (past and present) and what they did in Greece, there are big differences. This happened because the EU interfered and had its own agenda, and the IMF bent to their will. So in spite of losses the IMF may take on existing loans, the IMF would likely work to fulfill their mandate. Lagarde also knows that it isn’t in anyone’s interest, in spite of post default anger, to let Greece come to a screeching halt. So, Greece should be working with the IMF to plan some emergency lending after default. Without a doubt it won’t be a pretty conversation, but it will likely yield results. So the minimal and most immediate financing should be supplied by the IMF even if it is done with a lot of kicking and screaming.
China could, and should play a key role. If there is any lender in the world (other than the Mafia) who knows that borrowers would be scared of defaulting to them, it is China. China probably doesn’t need to worry about “enforceability” of the contract, they would be a very intimidating entity to default to. Just think about the difference between negotiating with China or with the IIF – no contest. So china should be less afraid to lend than other borrowers, but they should actually want to get involved. Much has been made about potential asset sales by the Greeks. Various plans have been floated that relied heavily on Greece selling the assets to various EU entities. China has mentioned a desire to become involved in European bailouts, but at an asset owner level, rather than as just a lender. China wants to buy assets and wants strategic partners, it doesn’t just want to lend money. Also, going back to the US crisis, remember how reluctant we were to allow ports to go into foreign hands? In spite of US troubles at the time, they weren’t bad enough to relinquish any control of such “strategic” assets. Greece might be willing to sell minority stakes in things like ports that China would be smart enough to see as a once in a lifetime opportunity.
So look to asset sales, and partnership with China. Not only should you be able to secure financing, it would be at prices far better than selling these same assets to other European entities. The Chinese desire is strong, and the EU has felt entitled. Even more important, China has the capital to spend money to improve these facilities. China can actually spend money to make sure their investments work – which means JOBS for Greeks! A deep pocketed strategic partner (not lender) with long term goals would provide not only immediate liquidity but a potential engine for GROWTH!
While I was at it, I would probably lob in a call to Newport Beach where the largest fixed income fund in the world remains extremely underweight PIIGS debt. Maybe nothing happens, but maybe terms can be worked out where they believe they can perfect security interest in certain assets or get some other form of protection, that they are comfortable lending to a nearly debt-free Greece. Other fixed income and distressed debt investors should also be approached. Unlikely that they provide anything in the immediate aftermath, but it certainly plants the seeds for future lending. Remember, Greece will have virtually no debt, and have a strategic partner. It will always be difficult to perfect security interests in a sovereign, but over time some investors could latch onto the post default growth story. There might be a pleasant surprise, but if not, reaching out to potential future investors is worthwhile.
Then there is the ECB. This will be the hardest conversation, since the ECB has never made a mistake, is always right, and always will be right. So explaining why they are going to lose a lot of money and should provide new money will be ugly. The reality is, that the ECB should play a role in the post default Greece. They won’t want to. They will be angry. They will have been made to look like fools. Their puppet in charge will have failed them. There are lots of reasons for the ECB to refuse to play a role in the post default Greece, but they are all emotional, and none are logical. It all comes down to the banks. The Greek banks have been surviving on a scam where they issue debt to themselves and then get a Greek government guarantee, and then use that to get money for the Greek Central Bank or ECB. Those guarantees won’t be honored and the banks will fail, so the central banks have to figure out what to do. All these “TRANSFER” programs that have been in place will be in jeopardy. Someone will lose money for all these dumb loans. If it is the Greek Central Bank, they don’t have the money, so it will have effectively printed money?
The ECB, Central Banks, and other strategic partners, will need a plan for the banks. Equity holders need to be wiped out. Depositors must be protected. Sub debt should be wiped out. Senior unsecured debt should be defaulted on, and based on the status of each bank, settled out at a decent price. Then the banks need to raise new equity and new debt. If they can get real equity, debt should come. Greece may have to nationalize one or two of the banks (they don’t need to save more than a couple – how many banks does a country need to own?). There is probably a compelling investment case to be made post default for some of the Greek banks. The Turkish operations of NBG could be interesting. The ability to raise new debt for banks is better than for the sovereign. Nothing about the bank defaults will violate contract law. Creditors can enforce their rights, it just turns out that the best outcome will be to provide creditors with a higher recovery than they would get in a liquidation. But that is how a decent bankruptcy always plays out. Some new equity investors, decide that it is worth investing and giving old creditors a better price than they would have gotten through liquidation because it is too hard to put the pieces back together, and the time it takes, makes the business less worthwhile. The situation for banks will be very difficult to figure out with all the weird financing tools, but given their relatively small size, and motivated parties, it isn’t insurmountable – and remember, the losers here will be the equity and sub debt lenders, and to some extent bond investors, though their loss is unlikely to be 100%.
The Restructuring Carrot and the Default Stick
Immediately announce a plan to all investors. For every €100 of existing debt you can accept an offer to receive €10 of new 2.5% 10 year bonds, €10 of new 3.0% 20 year bonds, and €10 of new 3.5% 30 year bonds. Accrued interest will be “PIK’d” so it will also be paid out with the same ratio of new bonds.. The bonds will have annual coupons, but the next coupon will be 12, 15, and 18 months from now respectively for the bonds in order to minimize our future payments and to ensure the payments are staggered so speculators don’t attempt to disrupt the markets ahead of a large coupon payment. For individual investors who hold less than €250,000 of Greek bonds that were bought prior to May 2010, the amount of new bonds will be tripled, so that only a 10% write-down of principal occurs for those individuals.
This will apply to all unsecured lenders. Including the ECB.
As of March 10th Greece will stop paying interest and principal on any non exchanged debt. Period. Full stop. Sue us.
All of the PSI talks seem to involve some money coming from the EFSF. That is none of our business. Banks are free to ask the EFSF for money if they think they deserve this, but this is a restructuring and it is between Greece and our lenders, no third parties.
I expect there will be lawsuits. But there is very little anyone can do to enforce payment. The bonds done under UK law have some cross default language and other “protections” but there is no stream of income or assets that are promised to the lenders. Away from those debtholders who may be able to use the right of “set-off” (where if you owed Greece money and they owe you money, you can net them), there is little way to collect. Greece will bear some expenses for fighting the lawsuits. Especially for the bonds under English law. On the other hand, imagine the windfall that Athens will get when armies of lawyers descend on the city to fight out a battle they have already lost. This will be much better than the expense account restricted visits from the Troika. These will be armies of high priced lawyers who only want and pay for the best. In the end they will lose, because the Greek courts will rule against them, no matter what, but it could provide a nice increase to the activity in Athens.
The key point is, that bondholders can rant and rave about the proposed deal, but they have few rights. There is no chapter 11 for Greece. You don’t have any rights.
The likely outcome is the holdouts fight for awhile. Then after 6 months or so of Greece not paying old debt there is a chance the holdouts will get tired of it, and will come back and ask if the offer to exchange still exists. Greece can let them exchange then because it is easier to do that then have potential lawsuits outstanding and because of the PIK nature, the investors who held out will get marginally worse treatment than those who participated originally and will have dealt with some legal costs on top of it.
Austerity
Many of the austerity changes will still need to be implemented. The time horizon for implementation can be extended, but they need to be done in many cases. But Greeks can decide the priority. Greek citizens will still have to adapt and accept many unpopular changes, but after “screwing” the foreign bankers, they might be that much less reluctant, especially with any signs of growth appearing in the economy. So this doesn’t stop the need to change the way the Greek system works, but it changes the timing and who makes the decisions.
A virtually debt free Greece can focus on Growth and Re-Introducing the drachma
If this plan works, Greece will have cut their old debt by 70% (real principal reduction and not just NPV reduction). Greece will have had emergency lending from the IMF on good terms and developed a strategic partnership with China (or some other rich nation). Signs of growth will be appearing in the economy. The rest of Europe will be dealing with the problems the Greek default caused, but Greece can be trying to figure out a real future. Shipping? Industry? The opportunities are there, and Greece can start plans to go back to the drachma. It doesn’t have to be a massively devalued currency, because Greece will have the best debt to GDP in all of Europe.
Too optimistic of a plan?
Sure, maybe this is a best case. Some details are missing. Some problems have been overlooked. But someone, hopefully in Greece, needs to stand up to the technocrats and demand real plans! Real analysis of what default or no default look like. The problems are too big and too real for simple fear mongering to be enough to base decisions on.
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*** This Message Will Repeat to the Greek People Every Time You Are Threatened by The Money Masters ***
Go Icelandic, Greece.
Yes, you were irresponsible, and you consumed more than you produced, and you ate up all the easy credit you could order and then some (you're in good company, with the U.S., Britain, Japan, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and - oh, the bulk of developed & emerging nations), but that doesn't change the fact that so long as your lives and economy are set within the context of fractional reserve banking voodoo, and a framework where you can't even print your own currency, instead having to beg, borrow or whore yourself out to a loanshark and pimp to obtain necessities of life, or what is now your reality - as long as your lives and economy are set in the framework of fractional reserve banking - you will only fall deeper into debt serfdom and lose more and more of what you had assumed were your sovereign properties & wealth.
What I'm saying, Greece, in case you're listening, is that on relativistic scale, your sins of overconsumption and borrowing too much, particularly since you were "allowed into" the European Union, pales in comparison to those sins of the criminal racketeering organization that is called fractional reserve banking (born in iniquity*) in dignified social settings.
p.s. - Don't let the anyone tell you that ya' can't default because the repercussions will be unbearable. Just the opposite is your new reality. Never go into business with an entity or person who will forever and always inherently be able to subjugate you and bend you to their will. You gave up your sovereign right to print your own currency. It's time to rectify that egregious error (just make sure your new money is directly tied to an inherently valuable asset, in order to build an automatic safeguard against the inflation-deflation, rinse, wash and repeat racketeers of finance from robbing you blind in other ways).
They'll debase your living standards by 95%, have you pay a 90% income tax, and charge you yor remaining 10% for the privilege of breathing (with all revenue generated going to some non-benevolent world body), and have the balls to tell you that it's for your own good.
*** This Message Will Repeat to the Greek People Every Time You Are Threatened by The Money Masters ***
The way Greece gets solvent is by filing bankrupcy. That is how you protect your assets and get rid of the debt. Lenders lose. Entity wins. This is a no brainer.
and the example of greece, if it follows anything like the above scenario, should deeply frighten the too big to fail banks worldwide. the far better results for everyone (except tbtf bank management, stockholders and bondholders, and possibly their crony politicians) may very well show the way for the rest of the world, as the examples set by the nordic countries, in their banking crisis of the '90's, and iceland, in its disorderly default, apparently did not.
In re: "securing new money after the default"
They could simply print debt-free money. The entire construct of sovereigns borrowing money under fractional reserve banking is a fraud on the people.
Give a man a gun and he'll rob a bank
Give a man a bank and he'll rob the whole world.....
It doesn't need to be. But the end result is more likely to be that it will be chaotic.
http://ericsprott.blogspot.com/
A default would be "unbearable"...just not for Greece.
Well said TIS
+ 1
The full quote is as below:
“The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin…Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and, with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again…Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in…But, if you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit.” — Sir Josiah Stamp (1880-1941)
President of the Bank of England in the 1920s, the second richest man in Britain, speaking at the Commencement Address of the University of Texas in 1927.
“PIK’d” your poison...
what good is all of this if we know that the general population is angry?
Anger is a very strong emotion and at this scale it will most likely lead to chaos.
I'd tell the IMF to stick it.
I like the China and Pimco angle..
Hey, Venezuela is always looking for friends that give the west heartburn.
fuck china. just default, then issue your own currency linked to your gold, greece. then sit back and watch foreign capital rush into your country.
3.585 million ounces...or 1 for every 3rd person in Greece.
What kind of Drachma float do you think they could support with those paltry reserves, slick?
More like watch your gold reserves rush out to foreign capitalists.
you dumb fuck...
GMad, your f**king up the narrative :)
any country entertaining a 'gold backed currency' is nuts...at these prices for certain.....and in the end at any price....price too high and and you'll be flooded with gold but your currency will be gone (remember it is gold backed so you can't just print more)...price too low and folks will buy it all overnite. These have always been problems even for BIG economies, for a shrimp like Greece one day on the 'gold backed currency ' market and they'd be toast. between the Fx markets and those who want gold the best system will be to let gold continue to float at a more realistic (unmanipulated) price.
fofoa has many useful insights on this topic. http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/12/windmills-paper-tigers-straw-men-and.h... (and many, many others, archived there)
my takeaway is that the two uses for "money", exchange transactions (purchase/sale of goods and services) and store of wealth, are somewhat incompatible but somewhat separable. fiat does well enough for the first and gold, completely free of manipulation by central banks, bullion banks and (it would seem to me) even major producers (international anti-trust laws anyone?) is the hands-down winner for store of wealth.
no gold standard, just gold freely priced in whatever fiat governments (or others?) invent. freegold as fofoa terms it. this is almost certainly a bastardization of fofoa's ideas so go to the source yourself.
A poor article.
There is no default because there is no bankruptcy court for sovereigns. Failure to pay means nothing more than continuous compounding of the debt and inability to have any assets outside Greece borders.
Even worse for the article, there is no plan. There is no mention of the Red Cross coming in to get food to people when no one will sell Greece oil. There is no mention of the operating deficit getting set to zero with even more abrupt austerity.
A real plan would be to stockpile a year's food. A year's oil to get food to shelves. And then force all seriously ill people out of the country.
Bottom line is the operating deficit has to go to zero and the country has to learn to exist without ever sending assets outside the border.
sovereign bankruptcy has occurred many times (see reinhart and rogoff) and many times the results are better for the defaulting country than the constant bleed of debt servitude. that the orderly reorganization of the banks as outlined above is better for all but the banks in question is historically true. compare the nordic countries in the '90's--orderly reorganization--with the zombie banks of japan since '89 and the rest of the world currently.
A defult of greece would offer the greatest investment opportunity of the last years. Then you could buy real value to low price over there. I think everyone is waiting until the risk of currency depreciation disappears. The the country will start growing, stock prices will rocket! Just compare with argentina for example.
Proability of those steps being implemented by the so competent Greek politicians: 0.000000023%
If you were a Phd economist you could have got that number to 5 significant figures.
The Greek people are going to kick the corrupt politicans out. Either very soon via a revolution or via elections in April. Default is basicly a certainty.
This is getting downright absurd..
IMHO China are NOT an intimidating nation and very easy to default against.
What are they going to do? Refuse to sell you their exports?
There's a reason why Chinese executives seem to be especially vulnerable to Kidnap & Ransom, it's because China has negligible ability to retaliate.
"He doesn’t represent the Greek people his nation's corporations and plutocratic elite in a fashion that we are used to – running for election and winning the election against candidates who are equally bought and paid for by said corporations and elite."
Different factions of corporations and elites. Apples and oranges. The Greek version of elites don't seem to carry enough clout right now so everything is being done to save the Euro/global elites at the expense of the Greeks (and everyone else). Until the power balance shifts you can expect otherwise rational plans like this to fail. All the talk is about "fixing Greece" a fully comprehensive bailout that sets everything right. We can see this won't/can't happen but as I see it all that really needs to be done is to give the Greeks enough money to pay their next rent check. How much is needed for March bond payments? How much will a hard default cost? You KNOW they'll cut a short term deal before the default. Hand wringing, finger wagging, contrite looks, the whole kabuki theater routine but the money will be coughed up. Then we move on to the next payment. It has to end sometime unless they're willing to do this until the last bond is paid off a few decades from now. The important thing is to make Greece look so bad that Ireland Portugal and friends won't want to follow the same road. I think some good cam feeds should take care of that.
Thinking that the horizon for austerity could be put further away than with the EU deal is hopelessly optimistic IMO. They're not going to get a better deal.
The right time to default is when you have trade balance but debt is still dragging you down. Ireland should default for instance ... Greece should be thankful for any hand out it's still able to get, if it manages to get trade balance but is still loaded with a current account deficit ... then it should consider defaulting.
How about this...
Boot the technocrats...nationalize the shipping industry and take title to the boats... then lever that and the tourist industry.
That should stick it to the banksters.
Is still not going to give them a current account surplus ... and which banks would let them lever those companies and boats? They can just nationalize the whole lot again after defaulting.
Whatever they do austerity is coming, for the moment the EU deal is the best one they can get.
they should learn a lesson from the modification scam in the USA......the poor sheep homeowner just wanted to stay in his house and get a smaller modified payment to do so....so what did the bankstas do, they took the lesser money with promises that they would be permanent in jus ta few months more......fast forward to more than a few months more, the homeowner has tapped all their savings and retirements accounts and is now broke and then the bankstas still foreclose but now instead of having an emergency fund to start with they are homeless and penniless......moral being its much better to prepare and HOLD onto what you have now, than give it away hoping to avoid the inenvitable
I think it's more likely the state will grab what private property it needs from the Greek citizenry. First it'll be publicly held corporations. With a good percentage of shares held by institutional investors (including foreign investors), the Greek citizenry won't complain too loudly. They'll still feel they're getting a net benefit .... social welfare payments at the expense of someone else. It'll start to get more edgy when church property is confiscated......but the church can afford it. The military coup and martial law (to quell the riots) will be needed at about the time when individually owned property and bank accounts are seized.
It sucks when you run out of other people's money to spend.
Zero chance of total defult and China to the rescue. Remember the intertwined banking system would have to buy in, Greece would become a pariah...
I think the point isn't china to the rescue, but china paying a good price for ports and other things it wants as a foothold in Europe. EFSF bonds buying is china to the rescue. This is china taking advantage of an opportunity for its own self-interest
Were looking at a banking system the is totally intertwined through CDS and letting Greece benifit through defult WONT be tolerated by the system...no muligans for Greece although they are trying to kick it back into the fairway without getting penalized...
Consider what the banking system is doing to IRAN and they have assets and exports OIL...you cant fight city hall (the banks)...
Sweet Pete,
There are other(historical, cultural, ethical) aspects to this story that you don't fully grasp. To be sure, neither do I. But let us at least acknowledge this and say so... humanly. I assume, of course, that years of working with the industry has not taken away your soul? Perhaps an unfair assumption.
Yeah whoever gave money to Greece needs to lose it all.
Bad investment = lose your money... that's how it works for 99.9% of people... and it should be 100% of people.
You don't need foreign money. You can have your own money and become a ``weak`` currency, just like Mexico or China... that way, lots of jobs will ``outsource`` to Greece from Europe. It will screw the EU.
Greece telling the banks to suck it would crash the French and German banks or force more bailouts... which would piss off even more people against the banksters... which is good.
GREECE NEEDS TO DEFAULT...
And if that bunch of scumbags pass the deal, THEY NEED TO BE ARRESTED AND HANGED HIGH AS THE TRAITORS THEY ARE.
You think your going to just pick up and tell the banks to FU, get real. It just isn't going to happen, the system as curupt and screwe as it is is the law of the economic world and your not going to screw them and put the SYSTEM and the ponzi in jeporady...
Scary but zerohedge has probably had a more rational discussion of default than the Greek parliament.
If Greece had a good government, they would do so.
But of course it won't happen.
I give the Greeks credit as it has probably been their plan all along to default. When you're terrible at managing money, you're typically really good at getting creditors to keep lending or at least more time to pay.
The option of an orderly default would undermine Papodemos' scare tactics however. Don't expect this to be an option. It's either austerity or chaos.
To the people of GREECE, do not give in to the money changers. They do not care about you, your country or your future. All they want is their money, no matter at what cost to the people. They will be your slave lords for years.
Stop paying them and start over. it can be done. Long live Greece!
Germans are proved to be the easy solution to breach Europe’s door. Whoever wishes to “set foot” on Europe and demolish it, the only thing he has to do is to “fool” the Germans. For a second time in less than fifty years, Europe’s idiots become the victims of foreigners and they serve their interests at the expense of Europe …it is for the second time that they take money from foreigners and they turn against their European “brothers” under their lenders’ orders …it is for the second time that the family’s fool takes “candies” from the “#r” of the neighbourhood in exchange to get him into the “bedroom” where the younger “siblings” sleep …In the “bedroom” which is common today due to the European Union...
Germany handed all the European countries over to the Jewish loan sharks, by naively believing that this way they would let Germany free. Germany put the European family at the “target” of the “markets” and it is collecting profits every time one of its members gets “executed”. The loan sharks who pretend to be the “hunters” are shooting safely in the European “hen house” because Germany has managed to “raise walls around” Europe. One after the other, Europeans are destroyed so that Merkel can pay the stupid and artificial German debts to the loan sharks.
As in all previous instances, once again its “fairy tale” is extremely misleading. Nazi Germany who used to destroy Europe in the name of the Greek ideals, does the same thing today. The surrendered, corrupting, competitive after receiving subsidies and extremely anti-European Germany pretends to be the unrivalled European power that fights for the European unity and against the corruption. This country that took advantage of the unification to serve its national interests, requires from the other countries to sell themselves out in the name of this unification. This country that even today keeps corrupting anyone around it, it threatens the corrupted ones. It “vomited” over a whole continent and now it is looking for the “spot” on its victims to punish them.
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/germany-disgrace-of-europe.html
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Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU
Personally I have a difficult time accepting the concept of Greece being provided an opportunity to benefit. If Greece is allowed to step out of the trap, and then produce favorable outcomes for Greek citizens doesn't that put at risk the larger E.U. and by extension globalist plans? Specifically if Greece is allowed to outperform other PIIGS would not that put the agenda at risk by opening up the (highly likely) odds that other stressed states follow the Greek lead?
It is easier for me to believe that Greece is to be subject to maximum pain as an example for the other PIIGS. I'm not willing to believe that a way to actually benefit Greece is in cards.
If you tell Merkel where to stick it, she'll go organize another conference with Sarkozy !
But, in all likelyhood, Greece is not going to be bombed or invaded if they default. What is NATO gonna do, send Italian jets that flew all of 20 sorties in Libya before being grounded for maintenance reasons? Hah !
You need to remember that Greece is where it is (or was) because of EU transfer payments, default and get cut off from all that they are back to the stone age. They have no industry (don't say shipping) and no one will want to go on holiday there again (especially the Germans).
You can't sit around , pay no tax, retire at 50, drive a Porsche and expect it to last.
The greatest private fraud of human history.
Who are the great fraudsters who are becoming the murderers of the human kind? How does the economy "illness" threaten Democracy and the freedom of people?
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
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By knowing what happened in indebted Greece, where loan sharks created “bubbles” and the current inhuman debt, one can understand the inhuman plan in total ...understand where this plan started just to bring all states at the same end ...understand how this type of plans are established...
Every one of the options proposed here puts Greece back into the same situation that got it to where it's at. Sell off the country to foreign investors? How about returning to sovereignty and those living within a country living off what they produce for themselves. Why does every solution revolve around foreign investors creating some kind of stock market they can manipulate for personal gains. The best thing Greece can do is default and cut every social program out that bankrupted the nation. If the people want to riot, let the country burn. If people want to leave, let them leave and give them 100oz of gold, or whatever commodity of value you can, to leave. The people left in the country will be far more productive.
Greece should then never allow anything resembling a stock market to take shape in the country and push control back to local levels. The Greek have plenty of land to farm, they have a huge fishing industry. As long as they keep the world out, they will be fine. Once growth returns the Greeks can start lettin people back in. There will be people who will come for the opportunity to start a business free from government and world investor oppression. Anyone claiming to loan money in the best interest of Greece should be shot at the gate.
The answer is never the stock market, or banks, or hedge funds, or foreign investors. The answer is always people producing for their own consumption!!!
China may nat be of muchz help:
Nouriel Roubini and Patrick Chovanec on China: How Much Stress Can the System Take?The ECB, EU banks, IMF, Federal Reserve, even the China backstop step up solemnly to take their parts as villains in an ancient Greek drama.
All of this is played out for the benefit of world populations, since most people don't understand the fiat fractional reserve monetary system and the laws--the common law, civil law, merchant law, trust law, and the uniform commercial code that are synthesized from the time of the Pharoahs and pressed on us today.
These actors including Papademouse and Samsara must be laughing their asses off back stage when the performance for the day is done.
Yesterday in a back alley used bookstore, I found a UCC book from 1975. The language is down to earth and revealing. Motives, perspectives, and philosophy spill out onto the pages. How refreshing!
Loan sharks knew that if they took the dollars printing machines under their control they could suffocate the world ...they could initially suffocate USA and after taking the USA from the Americans, they could move and suffocate the whole world and take the countries from their people.
FED printed cheap money and loansharking multiplied this money in an unnatural way within the American economy boarders and they discarded them abroad so that they did not threaten USA. USA became the first state in the world with artificial “breathing”...
It cannot be possible but just in the USA for only the last year, more than one million houses were seized. It cannot be impossible but the New World has returned to tents and shelters ..has returned to the ages of Columbus. It cannot be possible that we allow to a few loan sharks looting the toils and the assets of people...
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-debt-crisis.html
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Global Debt Crisis
Authored by PANAGIOTIS TRAIANOU
The plan IMHO is to use the dollar to reinflate the WORLD ECONOMY Ben is trying a total reset of world debt and thereby disprove Elliott wave theory...it is a bold stratigy one that will be discussed and texts books will be written about if we survive... but of course we will...
Germans are proved to be the easy solution to breach Europe’s door. Whoever wishes to “set foot” on Europe and demolish it, the only thing he has to do is to “fool” the Germans. For a second time in less than fifty years, Europe’s idiots become the victims of foreigners and they serve their interests at the expense of Europe …it is for the second time that they take money from foreigners and they turn against their European “brothers” under their lenders’ orders …it is for the second time that the family’s fool takes “candies” from the “#r” of the neighbourhood in exchange to get him into the “bedroom” where the younger “siblings” sleep …In the “bedroom” which is common today due to the European Union...
Germany handed all the European countries over to the Jewish loan sharks, by naively believing that this way they would let Germany free. Germany put the European family at the “target” of the “markets” and it is collecting profits every time one of its members gets “executed”. The loan sharks who pretend to be the “hunters” are shooting safely in the European “hen house” because Germany has managed to “raise walls around” Europe. One after the other, Europeans are destroyed so that Merkel can pay the stupid and artificial German debts to the loan sharks.
As in all previous instances, once again its “fairy tale” is extremely misleading. Nazi Germany who used to destroy Europe in the name of the Greek ideals, does the same thing today. The surrendered, corrupting, competitive after receiving subsidies and extremely anti-European Germany pretends to be the unrivalled European power that fights for the European unity and against the corruption. This country that took advantage of the unification to serve its national interests, requires from the other countries to sell themselves out in the name of this unification. This country that even today keeps corrupting anyone around it, it threatens the corrupted ones. It “vomited” over a whole continent and now it is looking for the “spot” on its victims to punish them.
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/germany-disgrace-of-europe.html
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If it works...It will not be written about in textbooks and taught. If it works, the collapse will occur and our ability to speak of truth will be eliminated. The 'event' will be pinned on capitalism and free markets, not Ben's participation in bringing about the 'event'. That is how they work. 9/11 was caused by 'terrorist'. The collapse was caused by greedy bankers, and the recession lingers due to the failure of "unregulated, free market capitalism".
The pattern recognition is not difficult if you 'fail' to cooperate.
Ben has said that there is no need for Gold merely faith and so what faith will the new Dracma have...You can blame the Rothchilds for the system thats in place but it IS the system, and disproving Armstrong and western dimise and eastern emergence is only possible with debt reset commencing a new supercycle and not allowing a continuation of the present failing cycle...so much for decoupling...
Sorry, don't think anyone will buy or lend to smoking embers and ash......
Tchiropolous. Hmm, has a nice rhythm to it. Stand for the job, Peter. I hear the payoff is good.......
So...it sounds like you're saying that the Greeks should go ahead and default, and that the supposed disastrous consequences would actually mostly be disastrous for the ECB and Germany...so the best option for the Greeks themselves is to just tell Merkel to fukk off. I kinda tend to agree....although a lot of this theory does obviously depend on your idea that China (or maybe Qatar etc) would step in with financing, and that the IMF will stay true to its original mandate and provide emergency funding as well. If all of that does pan out, then sure...a new Greece with hardly any debt & a super cheap drachma, would be farting in silk sheets!
there is lots of money floating around, and if they let retail investors in they won't have any problem, the trick is to bypass the banksters. I am happy to buyh lots of greek bonds on the condition they default. I will happily buy the bonds of any country that defaults and refuses to pay pff theold bondholders. once I know that debt won't be paid I feel much more comfortable about my money.
A little reminder to our transatlantic friends(and others) who urge Greeks to default,on the understanding that the bankers have no stick.
They do..it's called Turkey.
Both Iceland and Argentina were facing no geopolitical threats but Greece does.
default is the only economic, humane, and sane way to end this nauseating fiasco....austerity and its ilk are enslavement of the greek people....fuck the banksters and default here and default now!!!
take your lives back and live within your means going forward.....
Default Disaster? Hogwash
Banskters lose their gamble and accept their losses like everyone else. That's it.
And then... wash, rinse repeat with Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Italy and the mother of all insolvent socialist welfare states, France:)
watch this video the opposite happened in greece today. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRgRz3nSG7o
watch this video the opposite happened in greece today. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRgRz3nSG7o