Greek Election Cheat Sheet

Tyler Durden's picture

Information surrounding the Greek Election, Courtesy of Global Macro Leverage Sales:

  • 12:00 EDT/17:00 London                                                 Polls close
  • 14:00 EDT/19:00 London – 15:00 EDT/20:00 London       First official projection
  • 17:00 EDT/2200 London                                                  Updated projections
  • 19:00 EDT/24:00 London                                                 another updated projection
  • 1:00 EDT/6:00 London (Monday)                                      Final results expected

The outcome will be too close to call if the difference between the first two parties is less than 2%-3% with strong precedent of exit polls failing to predict the outcome when the race is tight.

 

Where can I follow the results?

  • Official results are to be streamed onto the Ministry of Interior website (ekloges.ypes.gr).
  • These results will NOT be an accurate representation of the final outcome. Numbers are fed through as they come in and this strongly biases the sample towards the rural regions in the early hours of counting.
  • The Ministry of Interior will be releasing more reliable estimates of the final result on Greek TV - this will not be available on the website.
  • The international press may also be reporting the unweighted "raw" results rather than the weighted sample - so, care needs to be taken in interpreting these results.

 

Who will win?

  • Polls released before the blackout period pointed to a moderate lead for New Democracy over SYRIZA, but with a large number of undecided.
  • The absence of a TV debate (talks on arranging that broke down one week ago) is likely to have worked in favour of New Democracy leader, Samaras.
  • The Spanish bank recapitalization package has not had a major influence on the strength of the political discourse of either SYRIZA or New Democracy, merely strengthening both parties' calls for the need to re-negotiate.

 

What happens on Monday?

  • In Greece, coalition talks will begin immediately.
  • It is unlikely that any party wins a sufficient number of votes to form an independent government.
  • A combined 35-40% of the vote (depending on how many parties cross the 3% threshold to enter parliament) is required to have a sufficient number of MPs (more than 150) to form a government.
  • The party leader of the top three parties each has the right to attempt to form a government for three days.
  • If these attempts fail, the President of the Republic convenes all leaders to try and generate consensus.
  • If this fails, a third election will be called.

Will a government be formed?

  • If New Democracy comes first, a government with PASOK (and possibly Democratic Left) will be formed in a relatively short period. Participation from the Democratic Left would be a positive as it would broaden the new government's democratic legitimacy and increase its stability.
  • If SYRIZA wins, formation of a government would be more difficult. This would likely involve support or "tolerance" from one or more of the Independent Greeks, Democratic Left, PASOK and the Communists, in roughly that order of likelihood.
  • Tolerance" would involve the parties abstaining from parliament during the confidence vote. Confidence vote can be obtained (subject to 120 being present in parliament) subject to a majority of MPs present voting in favour.

Via: Citigroup