Greek Election Cheat Sheet

Tyler Durden's picture

Information surrounding the Greek Election, Courtesy of Global Macro Leverage Sales:

  • 12:00 EDT/17:00 London                                                 Polls close
  • 14:00 EDT/19:00 London – 15:00 EDT/20:00 London       First official projection
  • 17:00 EDT/2200 London                                                  Updated projections
  • 19:00 EDT/24:00 London                                                 another updated projection
  • 1:00 EDT/6:00 London (Monday)                                      Final results expected

The outcome will be too close to call if the difference between the first two parties is less than 2%-3% with strong precedent of exit polls failing to predict the outcome when the race is tight.

 

Where can I follow the results?

  • Official results are to be streamed onto the Ministry of Interior website (ekloges.ypes.gr).
  • These results will NOT be an accurate representation of the final outcome. Numbers are fed through as they come in and this strongly biases the sample towards the rural regions in the early hours of counting.
  • The Ministry of Interior will be releasing more reliable estimates of the final result on Greek TV - this will not be available on the website.
  • The international press may also be reporting the unweighted "raw" results rather than the weighted sample - so, care needs to be taken in interpreting these results.

 

Who will win?

  • Polls released before the blackout period pointed to a moderate lead for New Democracy over SYRIZA, but with a large number of undecided.
  • The absence of a TV debate (talks on arranging that broke down one week ago) is likely to have worked in favour of New Democracy leader, Samaras.
  • The Spanish bank recapitalization package has not had a major influence on the strength of the political discourse of either SYRIZA or New Democracy, merely strengthening both parties' calls for the need to re-negotiate.

 

What happens on Monday?

  • In Greece, coalition talks will begin immediately.
  • It is unlikely that any party wins a sufficient number of votes to form an independent government.
  • A combined 35-40% of the vote (depending on how many parties cross the 3% threshold to enter parliament) is required to have a sufficient number of MPs (more than 150) to form a government.
  • The party leader of the top three parties each has the right to attempt to form a government for three days.
  • If these attempts fail, the President of the Republic convenes all leaders to try and generate consensus.
  • If this fails, a third election will be called.

Will a government be formed?

  • If New Democracy comes first, a government with PASOK (and possibly Democratic Left) will be formed in a relatively short period. Participation from the Democratic Left would be a positive as it would broaden the new government's democratic legitimacy and increase its stability.
  • If SYRIZA wins, formation of a government would be more difficult. This would likely involve support or "tolerance" from one or more of the Independent Greeks, Democratic Left, PASOK and the Communists, in roughly that order of likelihood.
  • Tolerance" would involve the parties abstaining from parliament during the confidence vote. Confidence vote can be obtained (subject to 120 being present in parliament) subject to a majority of MPs present voting in favour.

Via: Citigroup

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Mr. Fix's picture

I'll be watching with bated breath!............(not)........

 

This will be like the next U.S election........compleatly irrelevant!

slewie the pi-rat's picture

it's not greece if we don't cheat!

in totally unrelated news, the summer0lympics are july 27 - aug 12; inLondon

no wonder the brits have gone turbo to her majesty's ink supply

this could be the last great hurrah of the horsey set b4 the collapse of civilization when the bills are due

Mae Kadoodie's picture

Are Diebold voting machines being used?

bank guy in Brussels's picture

It's worse ... Diebold makes some of the European bank ATM machines

AldousHuxley's picture

what the heck is the election about anyway?

 

pain now or pain later......either way people will pay and government elites and banksters will retreat in a foreign hideout.

 

If you are a greek, ask a frenchy on how to bring about a real change.....bring out the GUILLOTINE.

RiverRoad's picture

 I've been sitting here with my knitting needles for a hell of long time now.....

Newsboy's picture

Harvard history prof, Niall Ferguson makes a bold call.

"If Europe is to have a Lehman moment, it will be this coming week"

This is a testable hypothesis in a relatively short time frame.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-financial-equivalent-of-the-cuban-mis...

nevadan's picture

Europe is going to have a Lehman moment.  It could be as soon as this week.  :)

algol_dog's picture

Makes sense doesn't it ... As the vote count comes in the software can instantaneously shut down the ATM's if the results look unfavorable. Just what do you think those "preparations for Greek default" discussions were about?

AldousHuxley's picture

elites hate making it easier to vote.

people do online banking and day trading of thousands of dollars every day.

surely vote machine can be more honest than humans putting their hand in the vote jar.

 

elite know that when online voting comes, they actually have to work for people instead of  lobbysts.

 

there is a reason why they don't want a more efficient voting system in this day and age......they don't want you to vote!

slewie the pi-rat's picture

the muslimBrotherhood is gonna do the purple finger thing just in case it goes to the courts

slewie's prediction: 29%,  28%,  27% ,  15% other,  and  1% still undecided

uPikEm on syrizzza, newD and the incrediblePasokPie-Hole:  V-man   and...good luck, BiCheZ!!

Motorhead's picture

Hehe.  And why did Goldman Sachs come to mind?

macholatte's picture

 

 

 

In an annual survey, the Greek branch of Berlin-based Transparency International said the overall estimated cost of petty corruption for 2011 had fallen from €632m in 2010 to €554m last year.

 

Greek debt crisis hits bribery culture

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9183967/Greek-debt-cr...

Newsboy's picture

"Bribes", what an unpleasant term.

American corporate medicine would describe these as "copays until the annual deductable is met".

There, isn't that much more reasonable?

(Well, the deductable is whatever you've got...)

YuropeanImbecille's picture

I am hoping that "Golden Dawn" or whatever they are named and/or the communist get more votes than last time. It is time to send a clear message to the satanist-zionists in charge of the EUSSR.

 

Today you need to go with fringe parties to make your voice heard, if they are communist or right-wing is of lesser importance. Those who can not understand this deserve what is coming.

smb12321's picture

That kind of thinking is EXACTLY what happened in Germany pre-Hitler.  Folks kept voting further and further for the fringes until one side (the Communists) were eliminated.  Of course, liberal democrats had been sidelined for so long the other devils took over. 

bankruptcylawyer's picture

not quite the berlin olympics of 1936. but the olympics of 2012 could concievably be the last olympics before 2020. 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936_Summer_Olympics

Mareka's picture

Irrelevant US election....

Yes, you have 2 choices CFR-Bilderberg Team "A" or CFR-Bilderberg Team "B".

If you attempt to vote outside of column A or column B or you are obviously a nut job.

To avoid the risk of any voter related mistakes there will be no elections held for the individuals actually controlling the direction of the country.

They will be appointed by Goldman Sachs on an as needed basis.

Thank you for participating and have a happy 4th of July.

inca's picture

VOTE OR DON’T VOTE: ARSENIC OR CYANIDE?

By Jon Rappoport

Well, we must vote in the upcoming presidential election, right? How can we abdicate our right? How can we leave the battlefield to the robots? If we don’t vote, we can’t criticize what happens in the next four years.

On the other hand, if we’re standing in a room behind a table that holds two levers, and if we pull lever 1 a bullet is going to come out of the wall and kill us, and if we pull lever 2 a flame is going to shoot out of the wall and burn us down, it becomes a matter of idiosyncratic preference, doesn’t it?

Aren’t we entitled to consider that levers 1 and 2 conspire to produce a false dichotomy?

Or is that act of considering an indication that we’re too intelligent for the society we live in, and therefore we should sign up for “re-education?

No matter how much passion we have for choosing a true leader who is independent of “the bullet and the fire,” suppose there is no lever 3?

Should we exercise our passion by pretending lever 1 or 2 is really the object of our desire?

“You know, at first I thought Candidate A was a dangerous idiot and a puppet of larger sinister forces, but after brainwashing myself into oblivion, I realize he’s quite a patriot and has godlike attributes. How could I have missed that?”

(By the way, it turns out that, since 1960, the three highest-percentage turnouts among the voting-age population, in a presidential election year, were 1960, 1964, and 1968. And those three weren’t anything to write home about: 63.1, 61.9, and 60.8.)

We’re told that political change comes slowly, and working within the two-party system, we have to satisfy ourselves with the slightly better candidate, or the lesser of two evils. This is what responsible adults do. But suppose this system is terminally corrupt, and suppose that is precisely the reason for...

more here: http://www.degaray.com/?p=2397

tempo's picture

Merkle is the only vote that counts and she will know here vote. "Simple adding more debt will not solve the crisis" per Merkle. But it will elect Obama.

Earl of Chiswick's picture

not to forget the second round of France's parliamentary elections also on Sunday

Black Forest's picture

It is completely uninteresting who will win. They, and a lot of other big guys out there, are unable to settle their nominal debt anymore.

 

valley chick's picture

any more details about the bank holiday in Greece?

slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, v_c!  i saw stuff here about a certain trading platform not gonna open sunday and then others joined in and saying wait till later when certain markets can't get isolated, swamped, and illiquid

then, the central banks (G-20?) said the global central bankstering system would provide any liquidity and support needed

there have been some stories about heavy cash flows outa greek banks, and some trading platforms won't open on time

maybe others have more

i just opened the local weather:  the hi was forecast @ 92;  the current temp = 102;  but:  it only feels like 100 on the heat index

i think that is b/c it is a dry heat...  

valley chick's picture

Slewie!! :)   Saw it posted on the the Investment Watch blog..but don't know how accurate it is. 

slewie the pi-rat's picture

we also have an unconfirmed rumor than benzelbub has promised both prez0 and mittens that he and timmah can keep the checks in the mail here thru bastilleDay [7/14]

he kids!  great kidder!  we needed that! 

buckethead's picture

Central banksters provide liquidity..... AND solvency. Single stop shopping.

JackT's picture

Runners..take your mark....get ready...set...

orangegeek's picture

Greece is screwed regardless - government to rescue when government is the problem.

 

Stackers's picture

GOLDEN DAWN 2012

Boilermaker's picture

ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW:

It isn't the amount of votes that count.  It's the people that count the votes that count.

This will be more rigged than the S&P 500.

johnnynaps's picture

I can't handle all that truth! Actually, I can. Just time for another Jameson and ice!

jumblies's picture

It isn't the people who count the votes, it's the people who tell the people who count the votes what the vote count will be.

This whole sham has become so brazen it's a wonder they haven't just bypassed the whole election thing and simply just told the people what the election result is. That way the people don't have to miss Who Wants to be a Trillionaire, Dancing With the Proles and Greece Has Talent (but Goldman Sachs has more).

Marginal Call's picture

If their elections were all rigged up like ours the "right" people would have won the first time.

LMAO's picture

Ahh, good to see that there is a 105.1% chance that both combined .....Never mind, it's either central planning gimmickry or Diebold engineering?!

Griffin's picture

June 17th is Icelands Independence day, a great day for elections.

Iceland held its first referendum in 1918 and became a sovereign state again after being under Danish and Norwegian rule.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_sovereignty_referendum,_1918

That same year Iceland got the longest and coldest spell of frost ever recorded, Katla volcano erupted and the Spanish flu killed a huge number of people.

Eventful year for Iceland. The event that stands the test of time is Icelands independence, everything else is now history.

 

Iceland finally got free from Danish rule June 17th 1944. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icelandic_National_Day

robertocarlos's picture

What happened to the Danesgold?

Whoa Dammit's picture

I thought that the last poll had Syriza in the lead. Which was why they stopped polling a week before the election. Which was also why all the bankers had their panties in a wad. Citi (source of the above info) must be getting its talking points from the Ministry of Information.

Joebloinvestor's picture

They will not have a government, and will try to drag it out even longer.

 

Expect major finger pointing at everyone else except Greece.

billwilson's picture

Watch the rural areas. Last time PASOK kept a lot of strength in the rural areas, but melted in the cities, with Syriza benefitting. If the wave of chnage has now made it to the countryside Syriza will win. I also expect a lot of the smaller parties to do worse this time as the vote coaleses with the main parties.

Crab Cake's picture

Ooh ooh so intense. Im on pins and needles. /sarc

As if voting makes one damned bit of difference in these dog and pony shows anymore; if it ever did.

Crab Cake's picture

Outcome = Whatever the people that have bought and fixed the election want it to be.... just like here in Amerika.

The shadowy hands behind the scenes are fucked anyway though because within a year Greece wont be in the EU, and Egypt will be a revolutionary hotbed.