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Greek Holdouts Buoyed By Overnight Argentina Bond Precedent

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As the week's panacea event (no, not iPad3) draws ever closer, overnight news our of Argentina may be critical for any fence-sitting Greek PSI holdouts. As Reuters reports, a US judge has ruled in favor of a holdout creditor forcing Argentina to pay $650mm interest and principal on their long-forgotten defaulted/restructured debt. Argentina defaulted on $100bn bonds in 2002 and has yet to return to the international capital markets. While the Argentinians continue to litigate holdouts, the judge's decision in favor of these so-called 'vulture funds' (an affiliate of Elliott Management) offers renewed confirmation of considerable payouts in time for Greek bond PSI holdouts. Argentina's whiny reasoning that "bondholders who did not take part in the 2005 and 2010 debt swaps do not deserve full recovery because it is unfair to bondholders who accepted less" sums up the perspective of cram-downs and forced action that sovereigns will try to take. The vulture-fund litigation (and successful precedent here) blocks any new debt operations by Argentina until settlement is reached. This coincides with Bingham McCutchen's committee of Swiss-law Greek bond holders who look set to holdout or 'protect the rights of bondholders' as there appears to be several investors actively considering all of their options, including litigation - but as noted above, litigation can take years (though returns could conceivably be very large given par payouts of bonds trading sub-20% currently).

From Reuters

Argentina's Economy Minister on Monday lambasted a U.S. judge who ordered the country to pay interest to a holdout creditor on debt it defaulted on a decade ago, saying the judge had changed tack and succumbed to pressure from so-called "vulture funds".

 

NML Capital Ltd and other holdout creditors who rejected debt swaps in 2005 and 2010 are suing to recover the full value of their non-performing bonds after Argentina defaulted on some $100 billion in sovereign debt in 2002.

 

Argentina has yet to return to international capital markets but should it try to do so, it faces the threat that some of its assets could be seized ...

 

...

 

NML, an affiliate of the investment firm Elliott Management Corp, is seeking $650 million in capital and interest from Argentina, La Nacion said, adding that Griesa's ruling affects "all parties involved directly or indirectly" including banks.

 

...

 

"The ruling has very little reasoning," Economy Minister Hernan Lorenzino told reporters late on Monday...

 

"It's evident that he succumbed to the pressure of the vulture funds."

 

...

 

Griesa has granted several billion dollars in court judgments to litigating holdout creditors. But so far, they have not been able to collect any money since U.S. sovereign immunity laws protect most assets owned by a country abroad.

 

Argentina has argued that bondholders who did not take part in the 2005 and 2010 debt swaps do not deserve full recovery because it is unfair to bondholders who accepted less.

 

So-called vulture funds have vowed to try to block any new debt operations by Argentina. In past months they have taken new action in a New York court.

Perhaps Greek holdouts are better placed this time given the far-greater contagion impact to the rest of Europe should a sovereign actually fail and the pay-them-out-at-par PSI-defection strategy may well gather more pace on this news.

 

But one point did come to mind from another Reuters story:

Law suits over sovereign debt can also take years. Argentina still has not settled with some creditors who held out during its debt default a decade ago.

 

Greece's economic recovery may also not be as certain as in Argentina's case as it cannot devalue and does not have such a strong export market to boost its coffers.

 

"Argentina historically has had a boom and bust economy. If you brought an international legal claim, it may be in part because you thought that, by the time the case was over, Argentina could have the money to pay an award against it," said Michael Nolan, a litigation partner at Milbank Tweed Hadley & McCloy in Washington.

 

"With Greece's economic situation, one has to wonder if the game is worth the candle."

 


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Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

You just can't issued debt and then default and think there will be no repercussion or pain....there is no free lunch money.........

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

But...cant we just pretend a bit longer its good for stocks?

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Why do you think we're been kicking the can down the road for so long?

 

Crap.....now we've got a precedent.....that's exactly what we've been trying to avoid.

 

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is testimony to the concept that there is no such thing as soveriegn default.  The bond holders just shrug at any announcement and continue to compound, and bill for payment, bill for payment, bill for payment.

This can go on forever.  A country can never hold assets outside its border or they will be confiscated.

The entity known as Greece may have to disappear.  The country may have to empty.  How bizarre is that?

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

So why would a country need to hold assets outside its borders?  Why might Greece have to disappear?  

They are far better off than a lot of European countries after WWII, who were pretty well physically destroyed.  Paid a terrible, terrible price, but eventually recovered.  Value produced has to equal value consumed, but what is wrong with that?  For Greece, lots of olive oil and tourism to pay their crude oil bill.  But retirement at 50 and spending 120% of income every year will have to disappear.  Agree with you there, but not bizarre.  Bizarre is thinking that everyone can retire at 50 and spend 120% of income every year.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Angie said last month or so it would take "years" for the crisis to work out. "Years of litigation after Greek default" i think was more what she meant.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Uh oh spaghetti oooos! Guess its time to attack the Faulkland Islands again on behalf of the Crown.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment bianchiidolo
bianchiidolo's picture

Argentina already went through a lot of pain, I'm an Argentinean and I can tell you that. But this is capitalism as far as I know, right? There is something called "losing". If your bet fails, you lose. Expect in the case it's not capitalism. Then tell me how you call it.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well its 'capitalism' for a handfull of trillionaires I guess, who no matter what get repaid in full on their bad bets +20%....for the rest of us, bend over.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment K_I_T_T_Y
K_I_T_T_Y's picture

Watched a very interesting movie at the cinema, Memoria del Saqueo....

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment DevilsPrinciple
DevilsPrinciple's picture

Ok. Are there English sub-titles , unless you are available to serve as interpreter ?

 

This documentary examines the recent economic catastrophe in Argentina: the devastating consequences of globalization, neo-liberal economics and corruption in this once rich country.Stars Mick Jagger. I kid you not.

 Released in 2004, so yeah this is probably a recent film release for Argentina. < ahem>

Thu, 03/08/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment K_I_T_T_Y
K_I_T_T_Y's picture

watched some years ago, they had german and french subtitles so I am sure they had in english as well.

Basically showed how international corporation got all the possible cash out of Argentina leaving it with debts....

History repeats itself....

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment prole
prole's picture

Government fat-cats "issue bonds" "sell them" and stuff the money in their personal pockets and divvy up among insider friends ala Solyndra and "Volt" scams, then pass the bill over to the sheeple of their particular country and call it "Capitalism!"

All we get is the bill.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

hi , if you have anything to do with Bianchi wines , i'm interested and i live in Bariloche,,

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

No free lunch?!?  Apparently you haven't feed at the 33 Liberty Street trough

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

Pay up Bitchezzzzz!!!!

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:56 | Link to Comment Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Damn Hondo... you're funny. That's just not the way America works. We give everything to everyone... cell phones, food stamps, health care...etc. But I am still waiting on politician that will promiss free hookers.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

John Corzine is getting away with it.....

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment malek
malek's picture

 there is no free lunch money.........

A rule "there are no free lunches" does allow for exceptions - so if you find lenders stupid enough, there might be a free lunch or two. But no continuous free lunches, yes.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

How dare that neo-con judge do anything to enforce the terms of a contract against the wishes of a government and support the concept of a legal indenture.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Hansel
Hansel's picture

The debt being forced on Argentina isn't exactly legitimate.  There is a great documentary on youtube, Argentina's Economic Collapse, for those interested.  The debt is known as the "illegitimate debt" in Argentina.  It was forced on Argentina by American banks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rH6_i8zuffs&feature=results_main&playnex...

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

This is so crazy. Your statement suggest our banks are preditory. Almost like they would push money out the door to unqualified borrowers, then package the bad loans into MBS that are sold all over the world as AAA products. Then issue CDS insurance against default of anything and everything under the sun, but never vote to trigger a default.

Please... American bankers are salt of the earth... and the sooner they return to dust the better off the world will be.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Hard that it may be to believe, if you can know that you can continue to bill for payment forever, the threshold of unqualified borrower lowers a great deal.  And the other side of that coin is if Argentina had demanded a loan and banks had refused to lend, they would have been called vicious, stingy filth who won't let a country develop.

The bottom line here is that there is no such thing as sovereign bankruptcy.  There is no court of bankruptcy law that can expunge debt from all parties.  It's forever.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Kinda like herpes... you get screwed and it stays with you forever.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wait....you mean we actually had to make good on that and pay it back??

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Stomach Full of...
Stomach Full of Xanax's picture

To my Husband,

If you are reading this, please get back to work.  Momma needs some silver coins.

Love's you

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

This right here is the trouble with telling your wife, spouse, partner etc. about ZH

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment graymnzrc
graymnzrc's picture

Good news: Beautiful weather day tomorrow

Better news: A freind secured a tee time and asked me to join him for a round of golf

Bad news: The idiot asked me right in front of my wife!

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment graymnzrc
graymnzrc's picture

Sorry double post.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

The Argentians are better off without foreign debt.

The judge is doing Argentina a favor by preventing the international bankers from once again gaining control of the country.

In case no one has noticed, Argentina is now in much better shape than it was under the banksters. The Argentinians should do as the Iranians are doing, demand payment in gold for their exports.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Executioner
Executioner's picture

A very lucid assertion, man.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment DevilsPrinciple
DevilsPrinciple's picture

Excellence in posting..

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:57 | Link to Comment caconhma
caconhma's picture

This is the excellent point. The notion that one borrows, refuses to pay back, declares a bankruptcy, and somebody else have to suffer just does not make any sense but it is good for the criminal zionist banking mafia.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Completely agree.  What a concept - actually live within your means.  One of the reasons I bought some property in Ecuador - figure the government will have to somewhat balance the budget.  Ecuador defaulted on some "odious" debt in 2009, and now have to live within their means.  Shunned by Western bankers is a good thing for the country.  

The Chinese are lending Ecuador money - but for specific infrastructure projects like roads, hydroelectric dams, oil refineries, and copper mines mostly to be built by Chinese companies with Chinese labor.  So most of the money goes immediately back to China.  And fixed assets like roads and dams can't just be boomerang deposited into a Swiss bank account by the latest kleptocrat, with the general population left holding the debt bag. And the Chinese of course now have first dibs on the resources.  

The amusing thing is there are western bankers just itching to go lend Argentina more money.  That is their job, what they do, the only game they know.  Close deals and collect their bonus this year.  Repayment is some future schmuck's problem. Trillions of hot dollars, Euros, Yen, whatever paper / electronic currency you want rocketing around the globe waiting to be skimmed by Banksters and Kleptocrats just sets up mankind for abuse.  

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

and this is why it's called a "bond".

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

all this mess over a small country like greece. can you imagine the shit hitting the fan when spain, italy, etc defaults?  oh and lets not forget the motherload of all inevitable debt defaults - 'Merica

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

We will NEVER default. You'll just get paid back with worthless paper...SUCKERS!

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment graymnzrc
graymnzrc's picture

How would a regular Joe like me place a $1000 bet on the Greek Bonds coming due on March 20? is there a trading vehicle for that?

Thanks,

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

go buy 10,000 one year ggbonds from your brokerage.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment graymnzrc
graymnzrc's picture

Thanks Storm.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:49 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"bondholders who did not take part in the 2005 and 2010 debt swaps do not deserve full recovery because it is unfair to bondholders who accepted less"

Translation: Because you didn't take your screwing when everyone else did, you aren't entitled to collect on the promise we made to you when we originally issued the bond.......before we broke our promise again and again and again. Fool you once, shame on you. Fool you twice, shame on you two.

So there.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Let the pirate wars begin!

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

SheepDog is cool!

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This really is quite the precedent.

I got $5 that says this case was off the Obama Administration radar screen or no way in hell that judge would have been allowed to make this ruling today.

 

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

Is that bet in AU or AG? Fiat is worthless, even Argentinian.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

$5 USD.  Go into your convenience store and put a tiny shaving of gold on the counter and see if the clerk will take it or call the police when you drive away without paying for your gas.

There is no bin in the cash register for gold.  There likely never will be.  The costs of verifying gold vs tungsten are just too high.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Kind of amazing that they do THINK that way....governments at work....what  a joke.....and this Greece default tomorrow...it will be returning shortly...probably within the year as they will still be broke....with no income...and expenses less..but still way to high....so I expect by december another bailout....but by then..they will have some competition...

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:48 | Link to Comment exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

The only way a US Judge can force a Sovereign nation to pay up is by invading and taking it. I'm not so sure Argentina's resources are crying out to be liberated like in the Middle East.

Everything else is just hand waving.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

No, it can be binding.  Any assets Argentina holds outside its borders could be confiscated for payment.  Any transactions it undertakes to buy imports could get surcharged by a court.

There are ways to collect.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 16:19 | Link to Comment msamour
msamour's picture

If the two parties in a transaction decide to bypass US Federal Reserve Notes as a means of payment, and do not use any US institution, there is nothing they can do to prevent the transcation. They tried it in Canada in 1996 for a company I worked for that was dealing with Cuba. The US tried to seize their assets, but the company I worked for gave them the middle finger, and the Canadian court told the US they had no jurisdiction.

There will come a time when people finally understand the US elites are not Gods, and don't get everything they want, when they want it.

Notice here I sasted US Elites, this does not include the bulk of the US population that are just struggling like everyone else in this world.

 

 

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Fck the US judge. We are talking about Argentina another country another juristiction. Who cares about the US? R they going to send the Marines? There are others more than willing to lend.

This is a no-event with a bribed judge (by the hedgies)

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment DevilsPrinciple
DevilsPrinciple's picture

But of course the Judge can freeze up ALL Argentinian Government bank accounts in the US and anywhere else where there is reciprocity, which is probably everywhere EXCEPT Argentina.

The Marines aren't necessary.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment caconhma
caconhma's picture

<There are others more than willing to lend [to a thief]>  WOW, this a total nonsense!

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

youngandhealthy: You are wrong and do not know about international law. They will hammer all Argentinian holding abroad until Argentina pays up. End of story... 

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

and the timing of this is ... coincidental?

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment stirners_ghost
stirners_ghost's picture

Note: a U.S. judge controls the debt issuance fate of sovereign Argentina. Meanwhile, U.S. citizens think their country is broadly resented for religious reasons, or out of jealousy.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment caconhma
caconhma's picture

<Note: a U.S. judge controls the debt issuance fate of sovereign Argentina>

Yes, he can since besides US banks, who else will lend money? China? They are not that stupid!

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Where the hell else would you want US lenders to litigate?

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment flyonmywall
flyonmywall's picture

That works for Argentina. But, Greece has issued debt denominated in Euros. So, in some perverted convolution of judicial nonsensical thought, technically the rest of the Eurozone countries, that also use Euros, would be liable for Greece's defaulted debt.

I could totally see some worthless nanny state English judge in London ruling that way. After all, they made butter knives illegal and ruled that a robber can collect damages from the homeowner for injuries sustained while robbing a house.

The world is fucked up.

 

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

According to AEP:

"All in all, I think the CDS saga is a red herring. The sums are very small. It is a different matter for Italy and Spain, of course."

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100015444/and-the-losers-from-greek-cds-contracts-are-german/

Storm in a teacup. Told you so. Friday market rally. Boring world we live in.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

As has been pointed out several times, the CDS sums that look reassuringly small are net.

It's the gross swap numbers that are not tracked and present danger, and make no mistake about it, the danger has terrifed the EU or they would have ended this silliness long ago.

The problem is single bank entities may have a huge quantity of gross swap exposure, with some other bank entity exposed in the other direction.  Those net out to nothing, but one of them is going bankrupt on a trigger.  Then **its** swaps trigger.  And so on.  And so on.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment miltiadis
miltiadis's picture

i want to watch porn... 

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I think you mean iPorn..........right?

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Steve jobs, turning over in his grave.

No iPorn ever.

Apple is a "pure" american company with chinese slave labor. But No PORN.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Apple is a "pure" american company with chinese slave labor. But No PORN."

Too freaking funny Liz.

Ya gots to have some standards or.....you know......everything goes to hell real quick like. :)

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:27 | Link to Comment drmfh
drmfh's picture

The most insightful comment yet. If no porn is available, try sugardaddydating. All the chicks there are 100% real. Well, maybe 39% of them. The rest are 'bots. Same percentage as market volume...

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

"bondholders who did not take part in the 2005 and 2010 debt swaps do not deserve full recovery because it is unfair to bondholders who accepted less"

This is communism.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

Something's wrong, I don't see the picture?

 

I kid.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

Just squint at his icon, it will come to you in full flower.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"This is communism."

Dude!!! What's with the hurtful labels?

This is just some poor creditor who got in a little over his head and wants a little relief. So what if that relief comes at the end of a gun.

/sarc

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:46 | Link to Comment writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

id you use the word 'communism' because you thought it sounds more intelligent than 'Bogeyman'?

 

Really - you should find out what Communism is before you start putting labels on everything.

 

...otherwise I'll have to tell you that your country (the US is FASCIST)

Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power.
Benito Mussolini The US merged the banks (and GM, and others) and state - did they not?

Labels - a very dangerous game.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 13:16 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

You are a moron.

Last time I checked, primacy of contract and private property means absolutely nothing in a self avowed communist government. My credentials? 20 years of doing business all over Eastern Europe and in China.

Next, who do you think was among the first to publicly make references to to US style fascism or more accurately inverted totalitarianism on this site?

The bogeyman?

Actually you are a moron and a douche bag...

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

Argentina has a dark dirty secret: if you tell bankers to go fly a kite, your economy and people will prosper.

That is why Argentina always has such bad press here, we hear stories about rampant inflation, government lying etc. etc.

 Americans are not supposed to know the truth about how well Argentinans are doing, with an economy enjoying double digit growth and reasonable interes rates for savers..

On a recent visit to Buenos Aires I saw a vibrant economy, less street begging than in San Diego.

 

 

 

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:40 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

I've never seen bad press about Argentina in the US MSM.  I don't pay a lot of attention to it, but as it is, I can't recall negative stories about it.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 12:04 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

The US needs SA allies wherever they can get them, by hook or by crook.

Promises come with "conditions."

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

Is this the "ever so successful Argentinian default" which is always being touted by the politicians as a blueprint of a soft default?

Funny how these things never actually reflect real life.

Never mind - there is a solution for Argentina - take the Falklands and exploit the oil beneath.

 

The UK is a weak beast and are unable to defend the islands (although the (non-military) population here will screech otherwise as they live in past times) - so taking them will be easy.

 

I guess Greece's option is to take Cyprus.

 

Default always starts wars - just ask Hitler!

 

 

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is a different world.

You started wars when one treasury loaned money to another treasury, or one bank residing ENTIRELY in one country loaned money to another country.  A default then hurt very specifically the lending country and presto, they came to collect.

Now, it's different.  These are multinational banks.  From multiple countries.  With swap derivatives that multiply the risk 100s of times over.

A country defaults, the Red Cross will show up to make sure no one starves, and banks everywhere are smashed.  But why go to war with them?  They aren't holding out on payment.  They can't pay.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 12:20 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

"so taking them would be easy "

 

they tried that already and failed.  Yes this time no aicraft carrier but Argentina military even lamer now than in those days. O yea , the f brits have something ...an ally called America.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment goforgin
goforgin's picture

Buy Argentinean defaulted debt for a few pennies on $1 then sue in New York, demanding payment in full, plus interest for $650 million. Just how 'independent' is this judge?. How much exactly of its own money was the Vulture Fund gambling with? Like in most Private Equity deals, the money is almost always all borrowed from FICA Insured banks. By the way the judge is based out of NEW YORK, enough said.

This story, banker takeover of Ireland and Greece are clearly indicative of the 'debt-prison' direction the world's elite are leading you. This will also have chilling effects on future borrowers by design to curtail lending.

The world is moving towards global austerity; debt-peonage for most with no benefits , and rent-seeking and wealth preservation for the leisure elite class.

 

There is a popular book titled "The Fourth Turning" which I am told predicts standard of living in US achieved in 1950s. Enjoy it.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 12:38 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

How independent would be an Argentina judge?

The lenders are Americans.  Of course they sue in a US court.  Where else would a US lender who loaned the money on a US exchange sue?

If Argentina tries to hold assets outside its border, they become subject to confiscation.

If they try to pay for imports, a surcharge could be imposed to pay the judgment.

There are ways to collect.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

Not really.

The only practical way to collect is out of proceeds of new debt finacned in the West.

Argentina would love to use Western Capital markets but they are effectively kept out by these judgements.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 13:17 | Link to Comment cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

"Default" is a 4-letter word to banksters, but Argentina and Iceland have demonstrated it works quite well at breaking the banksters' grip on a nation's economic throat.

Hedge funds participate in the banksters' sovereign debt game at their own risk.

Argentina and Iceland have self-sustaining economies ...once the banksters are kicked out. 

Greece doesn't have a self-sustaining economy.  Greece must keep borrowing money and must have ongoing access to international credit.

Worming their way into the EU was a windfall for Greece.  They can bleed the EU dry and stay out of international credit markets.

EU more or less launders worthless Greek debt into legit EU debt.  It's still carries the Greek name but the EU must make good on it or the entire EU risks collapse.

So ECB just monetizes it.  Sooner or later.  Sure, they fuss and fume about it, but eventually they monetize it to keep the entire EU from collapsing.

Of course Germany is the real guarantor of EU debt, and Greece is bleeding Germany dry more than anyone else.

I believe Germany should stop the charade.  Just leave the EU and go back to the DM.

If Germany did that, the rest of the EU would collapse in a week, maybe overnight.

Who cares?   It's time for Greece to stop bleeding other nations dry, and it's time for the EU fraud to collapse.

But I'll tell you who cares:  Banksters and hedge funds.  They lose big time.  EU collapse is default with a capital "D".

 

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 13:20 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Argentina is at war with world's number 1 enemy. The enemy is outnumbered 1,000,000 to 1 in US and we are losing. Argentina the Ben Bernank says Fed are going to sterilize themselves. There is hope.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 13:55 | Link to Comment Reptil
Reptil's picture

So... it's a bit like a student loan, isn't it? Pay in the future (until the end of the solar system) so you can listen to someone else's worthless dribble? Defaulting is impossible? EVER?

In the end it all comes down to who controls the US militairy.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

That huge chunk of debt Argentina defaulted was mostly created in fraudulent ways, very much like Greece, to mantain parity with the USD and give an impression of "growth" and well being. But it was all debt induced. So when it all crashed, instead of burdening an already impovershed country, it was decided to default. And thus a real recovery was achieved. I always was pretty happy with Argentina being out of the international credit markets. Last time we played that game, we got burned. Same as Greece. But now our own president is running on fumes after irresponsible managment. And with this ruling (let's hope this doesn't mean that the Argentine Central Bank funds held in NY will be confiscated too, right?) the only thing they're going to manage is to give more impulse to the official plan to modify the Centra Bank's organic chart to eliminate the clause which requires any currency printed to have a specific collateral. So this will not manage to pay vultures. And it will only flood argies with worthless papers. Everybody loses. But that's the ZH way I guess.

And Greeks should have gone to disorderly default a long time ago. They keep suffering for the bankers, as if they were some sort of Jesus or martir who's gonna save Bankers from their sins?

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

The bond judgement just means that Argentina will not be raising money in Western Moneycenters anytime soon. (Because proceeds would be garnished to pay these judgements.)

Which is probably a good thing because Argentina can spend money liek a drunken sailor given the opportunity!

And their economy continues to grow organically without the burden of excessive debt.

Wed, 03/07/2012 - 14:54 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

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