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As Greek Polling Moratorium Begins, Syriza Goes Out With A Bang: Europe Now Flying Blind

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Ten days ago when presenting the live Reuters polling tracker we said, "just as the most actively watched live update on June 17 will be the Greek parliament seat map as voting is tallied, so each and every day from now until then, everyone's attention will be glued to daily update from Greek election polls." Well, as of end of day Friday, a moratorium to publish polls come into effect which means that for the next 2 weeks Europe will be officially in the dark, clueless as to how the political winds in Greece are blowing.

It also means even more weight loss of a new all time record number of EUR shorts, who will be left in the dark as to what the latest un-prediscredited attempt to launch a short covering spree may be.

This is what the final pre-election snapshot update looks like:

What is most troubling to the pro-bailout camp headed by ND and Pasok, not to mention Brussels (for those curious what the core policy differences between the two main blocks are, here is a useful cheatsheet), is that Syriza finished things off with a bang, notching its highest approval score in the entire polling season, and putting to rest all rumors that it had been losing steam, and that Greeks were becoming disenchanted with its promises of renegotiating the memorandum.

From Reuters:

A new Greek opinion poll published on Friday showed the anti-bailout leftist SYRIZA party with a six-point lead over their conservative pro-bailout rivals, ahead of a key election on June 17 that may decide whether the country will stay in the euro zone or not.

 

If elections took place today, SYRIZA would get 31.5 percent of the vote versus 26.5 percent for the conservative New Democracy, according to the Public Issue/Kathimerini poll.

 

The finding contradicts most other pollsters, who show New Democracy with a slight lead. In its latest survey published on May 24, Public Issue projected a 4-point lead for SYRIZA.

What is amusing is that a week after we had been mocking the schizophrenic tendency of Greek polling to be nothing but a glorified random number generator, so suddenly did the Mainstream Media, in the aftermath of Friday's final result, which ended things on a very sour note for the status quo. Again from Reuters:

Greece's June 17 national election is being cast as make-or-break for its future in the euro and the currency bloc itself, but if you're looking to opinion polls for guidance, think again.

 

With a little over two weeks to go and despite the vote's apparently historic importance, polls have thrown up wildly different scenarios of what the outcome might be.

 

While most polls have given the conservative pro-bailout New Democracy (ND) party a modest lead, other polls have said the radical leftist anti-bailout SYRIZA party is slightly out in front, and some have suggested that support for the two parties is evenly matched.

In other words: RAND()

it is well-known why, courtesy of framing, and feedback loops, the Greek public can not for a second be made to believe that Syriza has a chance of winning the vote, or else it would... win the vote?

Although the two leading parties are each backed by only about a quarter of the electorate, Greek election rules give an automatic bonus of 50 seats in the 300-seat parliament to the group that places first, meaning even the slightest edge could play a decisive role in determining who next rules Greece.

 

"The polls paint a picture of the really tight race we have ahead of us," Dimitris Mavros, head of the MRB pollster, told Reuters. "The differences are so small and nothing is set in stone. You don't know what will happen at the last minute in such a fragile political landscape."

 

The uncertainty is unsettling markets because the two frontrunners have radically different visions of Greece.

As for the polling process itself? Why it is merely psychological propaganda of course... Something America may well remember in the coming presidential election season:

A ban on the publication of any new polls enters into force on Saturday. Public prosecutors launched an investigation into news websites that published polls after the cutoff date in the previous election.

 

On Friday, the conservative Kathimerini daily newspaper, which had just released a poll putting SYRIZA in the lead, published a front page editorial defending its polls.

 

"Publishing the polls cannot depend on whether or not we like the result," it wrote.

 

SYRIZA itself has complained about the erratic polling, saying it had concerns about the way surveys were conducted and wanted government checks in place to ensure they were objective

At the end of the day remember the Golden Rule: he who has the Gold, makes the rules:

"The bottom line is who pays for and orders the poll has quite a bit of impact on what the questions are," Theodore Couloumbis, a political analyst, told Reuters. He said people tended to vote for or against parties they believed had a real chance of winning, which could depend on polls.

Only for the status quo, it is not gold... but electronically printable 1s and 0s with a $ sign in front.

And that is really what it is all about.

 


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Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment eduard khil
eduard khil's picture

Coming soon - the world's first gyro-backed currency.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:32 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

At least it would be something real.  Now about the consistency with which that gyro is prepared...

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

Yup, it unfortunatelly is quite volatile.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Where is Greece's gold?  Who actually has possession?

For that matter, where is Libya's gold?  I had heard all of this stuff about "taking Libya's gold" just post-Qaddafi.  Where is it?  Who has it?

And if Greece leaves, or gets kick out?  Who will wind up with their gold?

***

For that matter, I am surprised that Germany doesn't hedge a bit of its own holdings, and take some of it back from the FRBNY vault.  Or does Germany still owe us money from WW II?

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:24 | Link to Comment el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

Tony Blair gave it to bossman Jaime Dimon after he paid al Qaeda's cut for overthrowing Gadaffi with a little carpet bombing help from their NATO friends.  That's why Blair gets the big bucks.  They will keep just enough of it to plate the tungsten and ship the rest off to bases on Mars run by the NY Fed.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

It was pledged in the last bailout, but it is real quiet as to wether it has been moved.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment JeffB
JeffB's picture

Well, I would think the odds of knowing where it is would be substantially higher if it was in the hands of its legitimate owners.

If it was stolen, not so much.

What ever happened to the money held in trust at M.F. Global, btw?

 

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

This might provide a clue as to the future of Grece's gold:

Southern Europe’s debtor states must pledge their gold reserves and national treasure as collateral under a €2.3 trillion stabilisation plan gaining momentum in Germany.

German war debt repayment (actually carried over from WWI) was repaid Oct 3, 2010.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I assume you'd only be happy to see a ZH-certified answer: "lost in a US Navy boating accident"?

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

But you can eat it.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

dear valued customer,

fill out the attached form and we will send you certified impartial data

party name   ______________        ____ %

party name   ______________        ____%

limit 10 parties per order, satisfaction guaranteed      

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment uno
uno's picture

http://maxkeiser.com/2012/05/31/kr295-keiser-report-with-hugo-salinas-pr...

In the second half of the show Max talks to Hugo Salinas Price who appeals to Alexis Tsipras to propose bringing a silver standard to Greece.

good info, take some gold reserves, sell it for silver and make 0.1 oz silver drachma coins

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment JeffB
JeffB's picture

University of Georgia economics professor, George Selgin, has written a few books on the history of private coinage etc.

It sounds like tokens issued by reputable private companies that were redeemable in metal worked well as money in England until the government got jealous and intervened. Private mints made far more elaborate and beautiful designs on the coins, such that counterfeiters couldn't compete, and the people preferred them to the inferior government issued coins.

here's a video of his entitled The Private Supply of Money over on the Mises.org site.

The Theory of Free Banking: Money Supply under Competitive Note Issue

and here is a webinar of his on Money under Laissez Faire

 

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment noses
noses's picture

Until they run out of sheep; as they can't print them they'll "enhance" them first with cats and later on with rats.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment maxmad
maxmad's picture

Keep your Gold!  Throw out the Euro!

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

alls fair in love and war.....and money the cause of war)

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Europe isn't flying blind, they are flying willingly blindfolded by crooked politicians and banksters who whisper sweet nothings; but it's all pillow talk.

 

 

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment AssFire
AssFire's picture

If you wish to be a success in the world, promise everything, deliver nothing.

Napolean Bonaparte

 
Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I thought it was Napoleon Obamaparte who said that.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:17 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

yep, this is an opportunity for the EU and all their shill media crooks to go balls to the wall with every "greece is pro-euro" propaganda pump for the next 2 weeks.  Get ready for some volatility.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Negro Primero
Negro Primero's picture

"It's not the people who vote that count. It's the people who count the votes."

(Josef M. Barroso)

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

It clearly ain't the people who vote.  Here's an interesting item from Syrizia's campaign platform:

Re-increasing the minimum wage to 751 euros per month

WTF???

I thought the Greeks were worthlessly lazy grifters.  Try living on a US equivalent $940 per month.  WTF?

Something tells me we're getting a very slanted story about this shit. 

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Don't worry. The bankers have a new strategy guaranteed to win the vote on June 17:

The Banker’s New Greek Strategy: Starve them into Compliance
Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:13 | Link to Comment Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Devil's Dictionary. NATION. ( na-shun ) N. 1. A free range open prison in which prisoners pay for their own upkeep and any and all production is property of the guardians. Sentences are heritable via treasury obligation on future generations. 2. Useful delusion for Muppets

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

+1. Ambrose approves.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 16:37 | Link to Comment James-Morrison
James-Morrison's picture

3.  See also:  THE HUNGER GAMES

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:31 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Ok I'll go both long and short on the 15th unless something happens before and then work a time/percentage based martingale off which ever one loses. I think the almighty Bernank speaketh on this Thursday so there may be some adjustments to be made along the way.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Riquin
Riquin's picture

 

 

Someone needs to have a long talk with Angelina and it will go like this:

Can the EU pay the debt? ------------------NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Can the US pay the debt? ------------NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

So --- Who cares?  !!!!   Then get the printing presses all at the same time!!!!

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

to someone w/ 4 posts in 62 weeks:  wtf?

[prob a toy-boy so up2speed he'll immediately junk me?]

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:35 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

What do they call themselves again? "The Troika"? Well..."here it comes":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=QTIrHBzTyks

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment AssFire
AssFire's picture

IMHO, the Greeks with no solutions will intentionally fail to form a consensus government. They aren't even gonna kick the can as long as the breeze of other defaulting Euro-nations carries the can down the road. Without any answers, their best hope is contagion to the other member nations...both sad and sick.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

We've all become sick with commerce. 

I remember when we still had the sentimental illusions about people being people and life being about how we pursue other things. 

Those were the dayz. 

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

A majority of the Greeks still want the Euro.  Syriza can say hope and change all they want to, and even if they win a clear majority, they'll still do whatever it takes to make sure the German money keeps flowing.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

That is what they been saying, they are not anti euro but anti austerity. Free money without the consequences.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment Rainman
Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:55 | Link to Comment CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Should have clarified: Yes, but should Germany refuse to blink, Syriza will change their tune.  Political promises are great to get elected but don't stick around in the long run.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment MS7
MS7's picture

I disagree. It is just that SYRIZA does not have a past like PASOK and New Democracy and so is not susceptible to blackmail. Since the EU needs Greece not to default, SYRIZA might as well drive a hard bargain. If things change and the EU decides it is better off without Greece, no amount of austerity would prevent the EU from doing whatever it needs to do to get rid of Greece.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:47 | Link to Comment ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

It seems to me that the best outcome for Greece would be to default on all of its externally-held debts but still remain in the EU. I think that's what the Syriza candidate has been hinting at recently. I believe there is something in the EU treaty that says countries can't be forced out.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:38 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Will be interesting. God Speed, John Glennopolous.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Did you mean Gold speed? As in "in Gold we trust"?

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Mmmmmmmmmmmm.........

I want a Gyro....

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 11:43 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

There is only one reason to enforce a policy of obfuscation. Because freedom of information would fly counter to the interests of banks.

So they will ban the data. Ban! Command! Control!

Because under the cloak of darkness, the bribes will be flowin'.

 

 

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

if the bribes don't getcha, then the honey pots will - but, and it's a small but,... you have an attention span of an americanized sheeple grazing in the back 40!

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:26 | Link to Comment Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

It's like a horse race where the horses round not to the finish but into a tunnel, and then, after a while, more or less, a " winner " comes out.
It's better. Really. Honest. Trust them. A lot less stress on the muppets ,God Bless Their Little Hearts.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Well said

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:00 | Link to Comment XitSam
XitSam's picture

Is this Greek national law against publishing poll results?  Can this be enforced against the US or the rest of Europe?  Anyone that can pay for a poll to be taken will know the polling since the ban is against publishing the results.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

This is why a smart hedge fund would commission polls in Greece and trade based on the polling. Could be the trade of a lifetime.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

The Greek ban is nothing. Imagine what would happen in this country if Ron Paul ran for President. You'd never hear about it, other than someone saying he'd be unelectable...

 

What?

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:20 | Link to Comment fermata
fermata's picture

the 2 % of Europe's economy .. And everybody is anxious to prognose what will happen in poll . What will happen when larger countries reach that point?

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

one of the known certainties of life, is that a variable is the true constant in a predictable world

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:21 | Link to Comment MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Also note that June 7th there is supposed to be a debate between Tsipras and Samaras. Could be a pivotal moment.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment Timmay
Timmay's picture

I think what is lost to most people is that it is nearly irrelevant WHO wins the elections. The fact is that Greece will not and can not pay its' debts. The veneer of refinancing debt as a means to "pay" it has been stripped off and laid bare. IF Syriza wins, the Greeks have spoken and the Euro exeriment is dealt a fatal blow. IF they lose, the perception is that the vote was rigged and Greece goes up in flames and then Greece still won't pay and the Euro is dealt a fatal blow.

IF you are in debt you are indeed a slave. IF you refuse to pay the debt then it become a matter of if your Slave Master has the balls to come and collect it. So then it becomes clear to every Greek and every person on the planet that the BANKERS have created a system where they create something out of thin air backed by the collatoral of real things and capital labor to CONTROL them. When you refuse to pay, they will then use the laws they have written to use the "enforcement" agencies and then armies to collect them.

Once this paradigm becomes apparent to enough people that system is effectively DEAD. The game then, the plans, the conjectures, the "bold ideas" will shift to the power to collect. IF they cannot collect the debts are indeed worthless, as is the entire financial system that it is build on.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

slewie still thinks it's prob up to "somebody else" whether greece stays in the EU or not, and/or continues to do bidness in the EUR fitasco ponzi currency where [money = debt]

this looks to still be a stat dead heat

syriZZZa can't govern by itself!

what does the squid want to see?  fiscal, banking, and political UNITY on a new level in the EU? watch angela!  watch marioECB!

v. interesting link>-->radiobubble greek party statements/propwash

 

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Call me Ishmael
Call me Ishmael's picture

They had endless wealth and resources and they used it to mold a populace into debt slaves, hypnotized into addictions for products they didn't really want or need? And people went along with it?
Didn't their power give them the ability to make new kinds of art, or do interesting things with all their new machines?
-A history student 200 years from now

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Things are a lot more fun without polls, wish they'd get rid of them in the US.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 14:06 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I agree, it sort of takes the surprise out of the election result. They are all just a bunch of party poopers.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 21:00 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:22 | Link to Comment no life
no life's picture

And after the elections, the Greeks try to see who can chuck a Molotov the furthest.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The Italians are ahead of the Greeks. They are already throwing them at their tax offices.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:40 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_Minsky
Understanding Minsky's financial instability hypothesis
...
"Hyman Minsky's theories about debt accumulation received revived attention in the media during the subprime mortgage crisis of the late 2000s.[10]

Minsky argued that a key mechanism that pushes an economy towards a crisis is the accumulation of debt by the non-government sector. He identified three types of borrowers that contribute to the accumulation of insolvent debt: hedge borrowers, speculative borrowers, and Ponzi borrowers.

The "hedge borrower" can make debt payments (covering interest and principal) from current cash flows from investments. For the "speculative borrower", the cash flow from investments can service the debt, i.e., cover the interest due, but the borrower must regularly roll over, or re-borrow, the principal. The "Ponzi borrower" (named for Charles Ponzi, see also Ponzi scheme) borrows based on the belief that the appreciation of the value of the asset will be sufficient to refinance the debt but could not make sufficient payments on interest or principal with the cash flow from investments; only the appreciating asset value can keep the Ponzi borrower afloat.

If the use of Ponzi finance is general enough in the financial system, then the inevitable disillusionment of the Ponzi borrower can cause the system to seize up: when the bubble pops, i.e., when the asset prices stop increasing, the speculative borrower can no longer refinance (roll over) the principal even if able to cover interest payments. As with a line of dominoes, collapse of the speculative borrowers can then bring down even hedge borrowers, who are unable to find loans despite the apparent soundness of the underlying investments.[5]" ...

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment C-B77
C-B77's picture

that last poll showing SYRIZA way ahead of ND is wrong in the sense that they didn't ask what the people are going to vote or who do they think will win the elections (these two are the most valid), the question was who do you think influences the most the outcome of the elections. a completely different story that has been badly reported starting with the popular greek junk-news (bad copycat/translator type) on-line media portal news247.gr

 

 

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

You read the poll script?

Mon, 06/04/2012 - 03:30 | Link to Comment C-B77
C-B77's picture

yep. They wanted to show that SYRIZA is the most critical regulator of these elections. SOME media decided to present it otherwise to make it more controversial/catchy and of course this wrong interpretation of the data became viral in a way. These things happen a lot in Greece...

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:57 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Replay of the book "The Natural." No one ever learns the lessons of the destructive power of Socialism. Yet it is the only trick politicians know.

Check out the Citi Surprise Index the The Vix.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/03/risk-on-obama-and-soros-call-for-european-action-to-stem-crisis-the-same-mistakes-as-roy-hobbs-from-the-natural/

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 14:03 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

It's funny how the words chaos and austerity are both Greek words. Then again so are the words problem and strategy. The bottom line is that regardless of who wins the Greek election result, things will still unravel.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

What would stop any other country from conducting and publishing a poll showing SYRIZA getting crushed, and ND/PASOK saying that all your votes are belong to us?

Mon, 06/04/2012 - 03:39 | Link to Comment C-B77
C-B77's picture

Nothing. I am not sure if that very wrong interpretation will do any good to SYRIZA and favor them in real terms. A very large percentage of the electorate in Greece is sick with all of them (party leaders) and they are just aiming for the best "combination", a poll showing one of the parties way ahead of the other will actually cause some voters to vote the party that comes in second. In fact that is exactly what happened in the previous elections, ND was well ahead of SYRIZA in the last two polls but when the results came out ND was at -5% from the predicted result and SYRIZA at +3%.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 19:25 | Link to Comment Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

 

All the parties together only add up to about (squints at graph) 80% or so.  So the undecided remainder is roughly 20%--huge relative to the margins between the leaders.

Face it...nobody knows nuttin'.

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