Groundhog Phil vs. Joe LaVorgna Prediction Success Rate

Tyler Durden's picture

Pretty much self-explanatory. It would appear that the Pennsylvania rodent is missing out on a lot of NBC Universal-contributor cash by not having a comedy TV friendly presence. As for the accuracy win rate in the groundhog vs permabull race, there really is no contest...

courtesy of John Lohman

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Steverino's picture

LMAO... P-Bill FTW...

Michael's picture

Looks like a collapse on-risk off day ahead of the NFP report.

Poor Grogman's picture

I dont know these two but the ginea pig seems to have more of a clue

Zero Govt's picture

You need to get Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave in this perma-bull(shit) competition

Prechter 2009-2012: 5% Win Rate

Prechter on Gold: beyond clueless (that's a statistical number of almost zero)

Prechter on timing S&P, DOW, Nasdaq: 6% Win Rate

Prechter on knowing he's diabolical at predicting/timing markets: 2% Win Rate

Prechter would win this competition easy

johnu1978's picture

It's getting better by the day!



EyeQ's picture

If you're talking about the one on the left - that's a ground hog, am not sure about the one on the right - could be a guinea pig I guess.

Toolshed's picture

Guinea Pig? For the love of god man......that's Joe La Vorgna! The other guy happens to be a ground hog.

Eireann go Brach's picture

LaVorgna looks like he was spawned from the same massive foreheaded alien that also shit Tim Geitner out it's arse!

johnQpublic's picture

IPO in the offing for the groundhog then?


silver bitchez!

citibank just gave me 10K @ 0% till november for a capped fee of $75.00


guess what i bought with it....

jonjon831983's picture

One of the below:

1) 1000x leveraged short gold etf?

2) GLD

3) 3D HDTV

4) a few iPads

5) Physical Bullion

6) None of the above 



but it was lost in a boating accident before delivery took place


newstreet's picture

Just received one of these offers myself.  What's this about?

trav7777's picture

surely the real silverbugz who talk only about physical with no margin and how bugz never use leverage or paper will be here momentarily to cheerlead you

pleseus's picture

Punxsutawney Joe is going to piss gold and silver out his pecker for 6 more weeks.

jonjon831983's picture

I guess there's more to that pesky cutie pie's face than it seems.

Mister Ponzi's picture

Last month, it was easy to guess a strong NFP numer as Joe LaWronga's estimate was not above consensus for the first time for months. Today, his forecast of +170K is considerably above average although I think I remember that last week the number was even higher. So, I guess we are in for a print below the average estimate of 146K.

spankthebernank's picture

Only on ZH would you get this in depth analysis...bravo. So basically Lavorgna is guessing, must be nice to make all those FRN for 'takin a stab at it'

golldstein's picture

I don't think anybody is good at predicting the markets.

Like Tyler Golden-balls, I was expecting the great collapse years ago.

Stocks did well last year.  Who would have guessed it?

At least women still have tits.  Hey, it's something to believe in.

I try to look on the brightside.

The only person who gets it correct consistently is Mike Shedlock.

The guy knows his stuff. 

But he still fucks up from time to time.

Matt's picture

The important thing here is, why did someone go to university and why are they getting paid if they produce the same results as a coin toss?

ebworthen's picture

Joe Bologna!


Hell, he should be playing Blackjack.

Thank you for this, really, I needed to see that after weeks of market pumping on CNBC.

ultimate warrior's picture

LaVorgna is related to megamind

Dick Darlington's picture

Lol, fookin priceless!

Rot-10's picture

Maybe Phil will win the DJFX jacket

Bahamas's picture

Lavorgna looks like a hydrocephalus

HD's picture

CNBC has no journalistic integrity left at all. Not that they are alone - "news" today is just pandering to whatever generates the most viewers or clicks. They all have some political agenda or simply pander to those that do.

CNBC is just one long money manager commercial - look at their advertisers, then look at their guests.  Dare to question the BS - you won't be coming back.

Kaaos's picture

"I don't think anybody is good at predicting the markets."

Predicting is difficult, especially predicting the future...


wonderatitall's picture





Rider's picture

Tyler please do a FED VS Groundhog!!

FED has no chance

Downtoolong's picture

Wow, LaVorgna beat the coin toss by 1%. So that's what being a one percenter is all about.


RacerX's picture

ha ha.. awesome. Does Phil have a $29.95 newsletter?