Groundhog Phil vs. Joe LaVorgna Prediction Success Rate

Tyler Durden's picture


Pretty much self-explanatory. It would appear that the Pennsylvania rodent is missing out on a lot of NBC Universal-contributor cash by not having a comedy TV friendly presence. As for the accuracy win rate in the groundhog vs permabull race, there really is no contest...

courtesy of John Lohman

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Fri, 02/03/2012 - 02:08 | 2122324 Steverino
Steverino's picture

LMAO... P-Bill FTW...

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 02:13 | 2122328 Michael
Michael's picture

Looks like a collapse on-risk off day ahead of the NFP report.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 05:22 | 2122434 AldousHuxley
Fri, 02/03/2012 - 05:41 | 2122441 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

I dont know these two but the ginea pig seems to have more of a clue

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 07:41 | 2122485 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

You need to get Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave in this perma-bull(shit) competition

Prechter 2009-2012: 5% Win Rate

Prechter on Gold: beyond clueless (that's a statistical number of almost zero)

Prechter on timing S&P, DOW, Nasdaq: 6% Win Rate

Prechter on knowing he's diabolical at predicting/timing markets: 2% Win Rate

Prechter would win this competition easy

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 08:21 | 2122504 johnu1978
johnu1978's picture

It's getting better by the day!



Fri, 02/03/2012 - 08:27 | 2122512 EyeQ
EyeQ's picture

If you're talking about the one on the left - that's a ground hog, am not sure about the one on the right - could be a guinea pig I guess.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 09:51 | 2122758 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Guinea Pig? For the love of god man......that's Joe La Vorgna! The other guy happens to be a ground hog.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 03:03 | 2122354 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

LaVorgna looks like he was spawned from the same massive foreheaded alien that also shit Tim Geitner out it's arse!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 04:45 | 2122411 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Too bad they're not blonde, like their brother, Beavis.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 08:25 | 2122511 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

IPO in the offing for the groundhog then?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 02:11 | 2122325 PSEUDOLOGOI

silver bitchez!

citibank just gave me 10K @ 0% till november for a capped fee of $75.00


guess what i bought with it....

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 02:19 | 2122337 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

One of the below:

1) 1000x leveraged short gold etf?

2) GLD

3) 3D HDTV

4) a few iPads

5) Physical Bullion

6) None of the above 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 02:27 | 2122340 PSEUDOLOGOI


but it was lost in a boating accident before delivery took place


Fri, 02/03/2012 - 07:20 | 2122474 newstreet
newstreet's picture

Just received one of these offers myself.  What's this about?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 09:17 | 2122603 trav7777
trav7777's picture

surely the real silverbugz who talk only about physical with no margin and how bugz never use leverage or paper will be here momentarily to cheerlead you

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 02:11 | 2122327 pleseus
pleseus's picture

Punxsutawney Joe is going to piss gold and silver out his pecker for 6 more weeks.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 02:16 | 2122331 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Go Phil! 

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 02:22 | 2122339 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

I guess there's more to that pesky cutie pie's face than it seems.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 03:08 | 2122358 Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

Last month, it was easy to guess a strong NFP numer as Joe LaWronga's estimate was not above consensus for the first time for months. Today, his forecast of +170K is considerably above average although I think I remember that last week the number was even higher. So, I guess we are in for a print below the average estimate of 146K.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 03:22 | 2122369 spankthebernank
spankthebernank's picture

Only on ZH would you get this in depth analysis...bravo. So basically Lavorgna is guessing, must be nice to make all those FRN for 'takin a stab at it'

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 04:44 | 2122410 golldstein
golldstein's picture

I don't think anybody is good at predicting the markets.

Like Tyler Golden-balls, I was expecting the great collapse years ago.

Stocks did well last year.  Who would have guessed it?

At least women still have tits.  Hey, it's something to believe in.

I try to look on the brightside.

The only person who gets it correct consistently is Mike Shedlock.

The guy knows his stuff. 

But he still fucks up from time to time.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 17:20 | 2124780 Matt
Matt's picture

The important thing here is, why did someone go to university and why are they getting paid if they produce the same results as a coin toss?

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 12:30 | 2122388 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Joe Bologna!


Hell, he should be playing Blackjack.

Thank you for this, really, I needed to see that after weeks of market pumping on CNBC.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 04:23 | 2122400 ultimate warrior
ultimate warrior's picture

LaVorgna is related to megamind

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 05:59 | 2122444 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Lol, fookin priceless!

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 06:26 | 2122449 Rot-10
Rot-10's picture

Maybe Phil will win the DJFX jacket

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 06:38 | 2122453 props2009
props2009's picture

The crash is coming

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 07:51 | 2122486 Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

Lavorgna looks like a hydrocephalus

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 08:04 | 2122494 HD
HD's picture

CNBC has no journalistic integrity left at all. Not that they are alone - "news" today is just pandering to whatever generates the most viewers or clicks. They all have some political agenda or simply pander to those that do.

CNBC is just one long money manager commercial - look at their advertisers, then look at their guests.  Dare to question the BS - you won't be coming back.

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 08:23 | 2122507 Kaaos
Kaaos's picture

"I don't think anybody is good at predicting the markets."

Predicting is difficult, especially predicting the future...


Fri, 02/03/2012 - 09:09 | 2122589 wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture





Fri, 02/03/2012 - 08:29 | 2122519 Rider
Rider's picture

Tyler please do a FED VS Groundhog!!

FED has no chance

Fri, 02/03/2012 - 09:25 | 2122627 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Wow, LaVorgna beat the coin toss by 1%. So that's what being a one percenter is all about.


Mon, 07/02/2012 - 17:28 | 2581837 RacerX
RacerX's picture

ha ha.. awesome. Does Phil have a $29.95 newsletter?

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