GroupOff - GRPN Back To IPO Price

Tyler Durden's picture

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devo's picture

Didn't the co-founder of Groupon have a dozen other failed businesses? That he took the company public in this environment further confirms the guy doesn't give a shit. Easy short.

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

"the train is now arriving at $20. All GRPN passengers who want to exit with the remainder of their wealth intact, please do so immediately. Next stop is zero. Thank you for riding the IPO Fleecing Express!"

phyuckyiu's picture

I have a groupon offer for some groupon stock at half price. Must respond by Nov. 20th to be valid.

Hard1's picture

I still could not short the thing as it is not marginable, but now there are options.  Vol is high-ish but not off the charts, so you can buy puts now.

 

Disclosure note: I already bought puts.

devo's picture

What month? It'll probably take a year for this turd to sink. Leaps are probably expensive, no?

junkyardjack's picture

LNKD is still floating as if its a real business, GRPN isn't done yet.  Investors are slow to realize a broken business

devo's picture

Exactly. I would love to buy leaps on both Groupon and LNKD, but IV is too high. $8.80 for an August $45 strike? Meh.

SilverIsKing's picture

wait for a rally or at a minimum, an up day before buying puts.  The leaps are too expensive so I would just keep buying some current month OTM puts and roll them over each month but I would only buy on days GRPN and market are up to keep the premiums down.  At some point, the puts will pay off big unless we get a slow grind down.

devo's picture

Yeah, luckily I bought some Dec puts right before the (first) debt ceiling debacle. Just felt something was wrong/going to shit. I've been waiting for IV/Vix to drop since so I can buy more, and it just hasn't...I can't believe people are trading every day with a +30 VIX. You'd think they'd get exhausted or be in the hospital. Then again, robots never tire...

The markets still want to go up. You can feel it. Habituation has taken place (i.e. People are immune to bad news, and react too strongly to any good news). To me this signals a big rally before a massive crash. I'm thinking crash in Jan/Feb followed by QE3 into the summer months to calm the markets before the election. If Obama gets a second term, Great Depression level crash. The only reason this is being propped up right now is so he can be reelected.

UP Forester's picture

Revenge of the Golden Turdball, bitchez!

Mark123's picture

The primary dealers agree to support the stock price for a period of time.  You have to maintain the illusion of money making opportunities as long as possible.

 

I recall this IPO nonsense petering out late in the NASDAQ bubble.  Shortly after the entire market collapsed.

Hard1's picture

I bought dec11.  This turd seems to be sinking already, so are LNKD, CRM, Facebook when issued, Italy, and planet earth.  I said whip it....Whip it good!

devo's picture

Wow, that is extremely bearish. You're fighting both theta and a technically oversold stock...I hope it goes straight to 0 for you!

Reform1776's picture

I also have LNKD & CRM puts. Also check out Jan PCLN(unlke other months, they go down to $90!). Also Feb AMZN Puts. Not thinking their tablet will be "all that", may outright stink, browser sux.). This is like the Internet bubble all over again!!!

 

 

CPL's picture

Yup...

 

Anyone else find that seeing multi hundred point swings through the day feel completely normal now?

 

I could almost promise that at 10:30 the market shits the bed, then glimpsing at it around 5 it rebounds 100+ points.

Reform1776's picture

Reminds me of Spring 2009. Except then had huge volume. Is it me or does volume *mostly* seems below average, even on big swing days?

Debtless's picture

Groupon. Groupoff.

TruthInSunshine's picture

A small bakery in London that had a GRPN cupcake run is saying f**k GRPN, bitchez.

Yet another fatal flaw in GRPN's business model is revealed to the sheeple IPO buyers.

Bakery Burned in Groupon Deal for 102000 Cupcakes

- International Business Times

 

#ClubBabySealsButSaveJohnCorzine

Conman's picture

Dont see how that is Groupon's fault. Stupid baker can't do math. Either way this business model sucks, wish i could have found some shares to short.

TruthInSunshine's picture

It's not "GRPN's fault," per say, that the bakery failed to take into account that it would be losing money, but given that GRPN's biz model depends, at least in significant part, on the willingness of businesses to team up with it, it's a monkey in the wrench or a monkey in the grease....errr...you know what I'm saying.

 

#LetFukushimaDaiichiGlowButExonerateJohnCorzine

smiler03's picture

Agreed!

To quote the owner (stupid baker) herself ""It's been an absolutely nightmare," Brown told the BBC. "Without doubt, the worst ever business decision I have made. "

Fish Gone Bad's picture

There are a great many coupon sites.  There are pretty dedicated "moms" that just hammer this stuff out.  Take a look at Who Said Nothing in Life is Free: http://www.whosaidnothinginlifeisfree.com/ they kick out coupons and try to save people money all day long.  If they were any more incredible, they would be machines.

Use of Weapons's picture

Hate to say this, but Reading is not in London.

Please, if you're going to link to stories, do a small bit of basic research and link to the original piece:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/890465...

TruthInSunshine's picture

While it was in Reading & not London, so you're technically correct on that point, it's not at all material to the substantive point about GRPN's business model that's being made.

Use of Weapons's picture

I take it by saying "technically correct", this is an another way of saying "absolutely correct" in America? Don't try and weasel me.

We're all aware of the insanity of the business model, in that it is attempting to leverage PR / market reach to get at cost (or worse, loss) prices for a consumer, taking a 30% cut for themselves.

 

I'm attempting to get some links on the third largest coupon company in the USA, and why it just dumped 90% of staff (ho-ho-ho). Google isn't playing nice though, which is odd.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Technically correct is another way of saying your point about the geographic location of the bakery that got ass reamed by Grope On is triviality at best, and wasn't even worth noting, given the larger context and real significance of what occurred (i.e. businesses may become far more reluctant to participate in GRPN offerings given the risks/hassles/losses involved).

If this had happened in Tucson, Arizona, and you mistakenly had said it was Phoenix, I'd just had let it fly right by, because it matters not.

Use of Weapons's picture

My disagreement was with the poor quality journalism, not yourself my Sunny truth seeker ;)

smiler03's picture

TIS You're still talking bollocks about Groupon being in the wrong. In the original article on the Daily Telegraph website, 98 out of 98 commenters agree that the woman who owns the bakery is a stupid incapable idiot and Groupon didn't do anything wrong. 

Disclosure. Groupon is a clear fucking failure. What kind of moron bought this IPO anyway? Perhaps the morons should open their own bakery.

RaymondKHessel's picture

CHA CHING

GM anyone?

Mentaliusanything's picture

GM -I holding out till it becomes a "Value Buy" or when Buffet  "Cums in a tub" over it

FutureShock's picture

Lady lost 20 grand with Groupon making cupcakes. Better have you biz shit together and run some scenarios.

http://www.nydailynews.com/life-style/eats/cupcake-baker-ruined-groupon-deal-bakery-ended-filling-orders-102-000-cupcakes-article-1.981275

 

CPL's picture

Holy crap...that's a court case and a serious fine.  Breaking contractual arrangements and causing loss due to negligence or being generally ambiguous.  I hope that lady makes out alright.  A baker is literally a large order away from going out of business.

WonderDawg's picture

Now if she was a banker rather than a baker, breaking contractual arrangements would be just fine.

PaperBear's picture

“This will set a precedent that will destroy the industry.”

BlueStreet's picture

Whitney is smelling an opportunity right about now.

 

jcaz's picture

I smell a secondary offering any minute now.......

YHC-FTSE's picture

Meh. When facebook goes IPO, it will be the mother of all gilded turds. 

CPL's picture

It will be the single most amazing short in a single day.

Westcoastliberal's picture

The bakery story is a great example of what actually happens when a small business tries the "Groupon" approach.  But what the story doesn't mention is all the regular customers whose expectations were violated by the sudden influx of "bargain hunters" during the promotion.  Undoubtedly many won't be back and neither will the "new" customers when they're required to pay full price.  The bakery owner is out $20K for nothing.

I don't see this company lasting much longer.

POpatriot's picture

How about LNKD?! It is trading at 10 times revenue and has a trailing PE of 940...Forward PE of 254.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Or as Abby Joseph Cohen would say:

"I see a lot of potential upside with this gem."

jonan's picture

damn, i totally pussed out on this one, i should have bought those puts last monday!!!

Rainman's picture

Investing is for shmucks.....whistleblowing to the SEC is the moneymaker. Average is 7 bounty hunter reports per day.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-22/whistle-blowers-seek-rich-sec-bounties.html#

pragmatic hobo's picture

at $20 per share GRPN is still a $15B company ...

dalasp's picture

Seriously, not sure why this site gets so excited when something trades back to its offering price. Lets not forget that $20 is still above where bankers were intially pitching this thing.