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The Groupon IPO Explained - A Capital Markets Satire
The only thing better than general satire, is capital markets satire, courtesy of William Banzai, who explains precisely what to expect following the imminent start of trading in GRPN shares (remember: get them now before they are "90% off" in a group discount liquidation, and bundled free with that weekly Brazilian wax special).
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Why do I take Banzai7's chart as more credible information than what I see on CNBC?
Because art is the most powerful purveyor of truth.
purveyor [per-vey-er]
noun
1. To pursue veyor
this ipo is stupid, increase in revenue don't mean jack when ur profit margin is razor thin. groupon is more ponzi-like than netflix they are crazy to refuse an insanely generous offer from google. crazy insane insane crazy
<---Groupon IPO flips up (for non-insiders, sheeple)
<---Groupon IPO flops down " "
I wonder why they didn't go through with their July IPO... would have had a hell of a lot more hopium in the world at that time to juice up their stock.
Their financial presentation got castrated by the SEC and then the market started sliding.
greater fooooolz theory
Groupon should be renamed Groupoffools and that name should also apply to anyone subscribing to this ludicrous offering.
Its all about that square on the left side, and you are not invited to play.
No Kidding! Have you seen their business model? Its almost as suspect as the 'new' euro-style bid auction sites. Oh gee, spend $500 on bids and win an ipod for $0.99... sounds like a plan to me! Except in Groupon's case its...we'll finance your loss campaign to help you bring in new customers. Which, in the end, might work in Groupon's favor when all the suckers enter bankruptcy and Groupon gets their secured creditor rewards, but that's a really long-game for ROI, IMHO.
All they need is a sock puppet.
"art or symbolism, broken down to its common denominator, needs no detractors,... it is the language of infinite time"
Nice quote. Who said that?
your admirer, earle,florida
:-))
Kudos 2 u!
That is the third screen Banzai owes me. Damn, this dude is more sinisterly funny than Kliben in his Playboy days.
You know those Shibumi guys who can kill with everyday household objects. That's me, only I walk around all day long thinking I could be forced at any moment to make some everyday object funny ;-)
"Why do I ake Banazi7's chart as more credible information that what I see on CNBC?"
Because math is supposed to be funny. People just use the wrong variables and mess up the punchlines.
Because his tits are smaller than the typical CNBC "reporter"
This has a great deal to do with it. And I don't ever want to see Cramer's man boobs. ;-)
How about a Zerohedge IPO?
We'll help you guys promote it!!
Seems to be would be alot more value there than Groupon!
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/
Why? So algos can front run it? No way.
Donate to Zero Hege:
http://www.zerohedge.com/donate
Strong buy?
Buy and hold bitchez.
Cramer the Clown Strong Buy...
obvious, its obvious
I was lucky to get in on Groupon deals when they were new here.
Lately, I've seen the offers shift as very few merchants repeat their offers. What Groupon seems to be geared to now, within this market anyhow, is towards the start-ups & the die-outs. In fact, in the last two months, when I went to redeem a Groupon and then a Living Social deal, the businesses were respectively closed or sold.
It brings in all the wrong customers, at the wrong price point, all at one time.
Sure does, Joe, but it's a much better deal than the gubbermint;)
Anything built on consumerism these days is DOA
I learned long ago mainly from Michael Lewis' book that the only people who usually make money from an IPO are the lawyers and the underwriters.
Gawd, and this year's crop makes that maxim especially self-evident.
Does anyone know anyone who has actually gotten a job off LinkedIn? or anyone who has ever bought anything from a Facebook ad?
Speaking of Face-Off...er, i mean Face Book. Or is it The Facebook? I've always had problems with spelling. And I've been told my grammar is even worse. It's all Ms Pillsbury and her billions' fault. (that punctuation mark is correct. Billions' is a pro-noun and some mere number...as in "I was attacked by his billions." Anywho I'm just along for the ride of course. Something about when she smiles after saying "they all to kill me don't they.")
LinkedIn reminds me of those college job fairs where everyone is dressed in suits and pushing each other out of the way for a chance to talk to a TBTF corporation's PR man for a summer internship. When you finally get in close enough, you hand them your resume and they pat you on the back and give you a brochure full of corporate bullshit. In other words, a complete waste of time.
A friend who is a recruiter posted a specific engineering job and got 300 resumes in a few days and only 4-5 were qualified. If engineers are looking hard, we are in real trouble.
I've been warning people for several years now, but few want to believe it. I would like to know where are all these phantom jobs in engineering are located??? In America, that is, China doesn't count. Everyone ridicules the liberal arts graduates AND most often their answer is to get something in engineering, technology, etc. Uh... they ain't no better fellas. Stop misleading the young.
As an engineer I agree. Started my own company to stay employed. Engineering jobs that pay livable wages are disappearing. Of course we could all hope Facebook and Groupon combined with iPads can rescue our profession....not.
They absolutely are phanthom jobs. However, at least an engineer is smart enough to make something useful.
True. But take a young engineer fresh out of college with +30k in student loans and no job. He's just as broke as the liberal arts graduate. Which means he'll be working at Walmart with the liberal arts graduate. Even after college, it takes many years to properly season an engineer in the discipline. Yes, he could try a startup on the side, but engineering isn't something one does well at alone and on the side after grinding away the day trying to survive.
I can present a very succinct argument that a liberal arts student is actually better equipped to struggle through this economy.
Given the nature of global supply chaining etc, the use of right lobe creative skills becomes even more critical to compete with the mass producers of the world.
In the end 99% of what is learned in college evaporates. What is important is learning how to think critically and how to create and adapt ideas.
Short at will. Farm bet on Puts when available.
OK Tyler, I see your point, but they invented coupons, so they've got the patent, right? Right? Anyone? Bueller?
David Icke (yes, the reptile man) offers a surprisingly rational critique of the monetary system.
http://tiny.cc/1w1rq
mixing reality with insanity is the best recipe for cults!
Hah that is true, I do think though, that his analysis here will resonate with many on this site. If you watch the video, share your thoughts.
don't take the "listen to everybody concept" too far,
you have limited time, don't waste it on this crack head.
I am certainly not going to.
peace.
Already spent my time on it and I can assure you that it was not a waste of time, although nothing new is really presented, so maybe it was a waste after all.
Nothing new - perhaps, but cogently and compellingly presented.
No BS, it just starts and runs.
I used to think he was some kind of whack job,
but over the past several months, I've tried to overcome my
self-censoring attitude - maybe buying into my own idea
that fundamentalism of ANY STRIPE means you never have to think again.
His economic understanding-fu is quite weak. He also mixes truth and falsehood, though I think out of ignorance rather than malice.
How shall I say this rightly....
Icke is goofy, but not stupid.
Exactly! I would highly recommend this particular video to everyone here ... not to learn anything you don't know already but to get your thinking straight and focused on the central issues [pun intended]!
His message:
He just doesn't go far enough into explaining that taking individual control back from the central planners should, by definition, mean strengthening local community control over local community issues and lifestyles. SECEDE NOW!!
Dismantling the Brussels dictatorship and taking the EU back to individual sovereign states does not have to mean that some of the good things of mutual cooperation need also to be thrown away! For example, free movement between states doesn't need to be taken away. Treaties between all the states can still be signed for those specific purposes (but not for the whole fucking shooting match!). SECEDE NOW!!
Similarly, dismantling the Washington dictatorship and taking the USA back to individual sovereign states does not have to mean that free trade and movement between the states will be lost, or that the common identity of "The United States of America" need be lost. Treaties can still be signed between all the states for those specific purposes ... without needing a central planning bureaucracy snuffling truffles on the banks of the Potomac to manage it!! The original Articles of Confederation provided a good framework, but got subverted almost immediately into a Constitution that led back to centralised control from Europe! SECEDE NOW!!
David Icke is indeed not stupid ... and he knows exactly who is behind the curtain (and it's not lizards!). But he is afraid to name them and always redirects to the bogeymen of the bankers and corporations on the right and the whipping boys on the left (Rothschild, Soros, etc). But, at the end of the day, it doesn't matter who created the problem: What matters is that we take back control from the central planners, whoever they may be, and fix the problem! SECEDE NOW!!
I got a Groupon coupon from the Golden Turdball restaurant. 90% off, just like the anticipated price 3 weeks after IPO.
And for even more satire...Kitco has published The Great Silver debate between GATA's Bill Murphy and the CPM Group's Jeffrey Christian. Christian is always good for a major belly laugh!...
Jeffy Christian's presentation at the Silver Summit and came away with 2 DOOZIES.
1) He has upped is previous "faux pas" of admitting 100-1 gold trading leverage on the LBM to 400-1 but he says it doesn't matter!
2) Christian claimed that the "Drive By Shooting" in May was caused by a change of trading positions on the COMEX....WHICH IT WAS!
Of course, under US Commodity Law it is ILLEGAL for prices to be SET on the COMEX! The futures and options contracts can only be a "price discovery mechanism" and not a "price setting mechanism"!
Thanks again for your valuable insight Jeffy!
Personally I like the guy, he's open and he talks from the point of view of trader who does not care what he trades. You would not have a lot of ammunition against cartel if he wouldn't speak up, don't think he is so stupid. He and mr.McGuire are the only ones talking about it.
The Facebook movie was on TV here today, so I watched it on a whim. It was surprisingly good for what it is.
If you watch it, you will quickly surmise or reconfirm your suspicions of what a bunch of assholes were behind the whole thing and what the "face buck" is all about.
The scene with Larry Summers is worth the price of admission. What a consummate asshole!
Sounds almost worthwhile in a flagellent sort of way.
I ran across it purely by accident. The movie really makes Zuckerberg look like a total human turd.
He is one.
Zuck: Yeah so if you ever need info about anyone at Harvard
Zuck: Just ask.
Zuck: I have over 4,000 emails, pictures, addresses, SNS
[Redacted Friend's Name]: What? How'd you manage that one?
Zuck: People just submitted it.
Zuck: I don't know why.
Zuck: They "trust me"
Zuck: Dumb fucks.
http://tiny.cc/axdrl
I'll check it out when it's on TV here. Have you seen this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIGdWsxHJlM
makes Zuckerberg look like a total human turd
Now that's a work of art!
Not Hard...
Daylight makes Z-Suckerberg look like total human feces...
The movie would have been better if they showed Zuckerberg in the Tomb getting instructions from his Russel Trust overlords.
Does the movie include how he was funded? Funny how In-Q-Tel is always left out of the story on things like Google, Facebook, Analytic Solutions, etc.
www.cia.gov/library/publications/additional-publications/in-q-tel/index.html
Funny thing about the CIA, data mining and large "social media" .....
It doesn't really go into it in detail. Just the first $500,000 round and how his partner got fucked.
I am a cheap bastard and I love coupons. That doesn't mean I think the red-ink bleeding Groupon is worth even a 1/10th of they say they are worth though.
Everytime I hear the word "Groupon", I can't help but think of some ultra, low-budget, porn. It'll probably end the same way too..
63% off weight loss hotpants !
http://www.groupon.ie/deals/dublin-special/zaggora/1255768?nlp=&CID=IE_CRM_1_0_0_295&a=1768
I read a pretty critical article of Groupon yesterday telling how they brought in about $800 million in venture funding and didn't use any of it to grow the company. $268 million of that money went right into the pockets of one of the Groupon executives. The article also stated how Groupon has been overstating revenues since its inception and how many merchants are turning against the company.
I just went to look at the article again and it has been scrubbed. The same article now only praises Groupon and tells how the IPO market is thawing and now is a great time for Groupon to go public. Someone must have received a nasty phone call and threat.
Groupon is nothing but a garbage pump and dump to transfer more wealth to connected insiders. All the dirt wasn't supposed to come out until after the insiders made their buck. Seriously the company was counting the total revenue generated before any expenses were applied.
I'm going to start a company and set the retail price for a muffin at $1 million but you get a $999,999 off coupon. Just think of the revenue my company can generate if I claim each sale as $1 million and then later apply the discount. Hell I might be able to record the discount as a loss and then never have to pay taxes.
Groupon has actually put more merchants out of business than it has helped. The story yesterday even told of the woman who had to take $8k out of her own savings to keep her business afloat after her Groupon coupon day.
Is it a coincidence the principal investors in Groupon are some of the world's leading trash peddlers. I found a different article that sums it up in one paragraph. The sad part is none of it will matter and some MOMO chasing Algos will use Groupon as a new capital holding vehicle. The garbage of society will reap more billions and the public will once again be left with a corporation killing main street for every last penny.
"Since they saw the numbers on the business in January, they surely knew that Groupon was going to need a truckload more cash and soon. And since the round was already a who’s who from Sandhill Road (Greylock Partners, Kleiner Perkins, Andreessen Horowitz), the next step was naturally to dump it on the public."
Groupon is imitating Salesforce’s accounting magic
As if inspired by Mark Benioff’s accounting schenanigans in the latest Salesforce quarterly earnings report, Groupon’s management has come up with their own fantasy accounting metric. In a letter to prospective investors, Andrew Mason explains this wizardry as “Adjusted Consolidated Segment Operating Income” or “Adjusted CSOI.” He explains:
This metric is our consolidated segment operating income before our new subscriber acquisition costs and certain non-cash charges; we think of it as our operating profitability before marketing costs incurred for long-term growth.
So I guess the new playbook says that whenever generally accepted accounting principles don’t produce the kind of headline numbers investors want to hear, just come up with your own numbers to fit the growth narrative. Hey, it worked for Mark when he announced Salesforce was switching to non-GAAP numbers that didn’t include stock compensation for sales people (a twist that ensured he and other execs would hit their targets and get their bonuses)…so why wouldn’t it work for Groupon?
If you go and read about how the whole thing got started, it begins with a seasoned snake oil artist saying let's come up with a clever gimmick to IPO and get rich.
I am reminded of the story of Joseph Smith saying, pre-LDS, that the only way to get really rich in America is to start a religion.
It is funny you should mention that, because there are certain elements of the way these internet companies are run that overlap with religious proselytizing. The so called "culture" in many respects, can be found in The True Believer.
It is a cult of money, even though they like to tell you it is not.
I think you may be thinking of Ron Hubbard, pre-scientology, not the mormon guy~
I thought that was attributed to L. Ron Hubbbard? And scroogling seems to back that up...
I know, it's difficult to keep the scoundrels sorted out.
Good stuff......
I wanted to share it with Tyler via email but since we are on facebook topic - I was talking to a colleague of mine who has a friend in southern state of India. His friend told him that there are few companies with 20 some people where whole day they just create facebook accounts. I asked him if there is a website for that company, he said no. Looks like Zuckerberg is investing in prepping his IPO very furiously - so that he can show how many people are joining Facebook.
If that is true, it is a journalist Holy Grail worth chasing.
As for Facebook, one of the odd things in the move is how everyone kept pointing to the simplicity of the original design as its greatest attribute.
Now, Facebook is the biggest incomprehensible clump of twisted spaghetti you will ever find on the Internet. I'm not kidding.
Total agreement Banzai on the dogs breakfast FaceBuch calls a user interface. I wonder how long they can keep their farce going with so many IT guys actively working to sink it.
And the freakin thing Spams you as well.
Interesting, would love to read about that somewhere but I couldn't find any information on it. Talk to your friend for us, see if he has something.
Much as the previous internet bubble used "clicks" as a valuation metric, the notion of using "number of users" is also dubious because of how easily it can b emanipulated. The way to mitigate this is to use a better metric, one idea for said metric would be to quantify active users as a percentage of total users, and then further drill-down further into that "active" group to see how the activity is distributed. Creating the illusion of activity is much harder to do when compared to simply creating an account, thus it gives you a more objective lens.
I've been on FB since 2005 from my college days, but i must say, i can't wait until i close my account and communication gets back to regular emails or SMS. Am still only using it now to stay in touch with friends and colleagues over the world - simpler than keeping track of email/number/location changed otherwise.
You mean, you can't wait to try closing your account ;-)
"You are now belong to CIA...."
There is a market for facebook 'fans' and 'likes', as well as twitter followers, youtube views, and a number of other social media destinations that internet marketers use to promote their business.
Run a search for 'buy facebook fans' and you'll eventually arrive at sites with offers such as: "2000 guaranteed 'fans' for $100 - delivered in 5 - 7 days."
We do a lot of Internet marketing and the same can be said regarding purchasing similar services for LinkedIn and Twitter.
Go to Fiverr.com. You'd be amazed how Internet marketing and social media can be manipulated for dirt cheap. In Fiverr's case, $5...
Funny, how HFTs have even invaded social media....
Quick! Pull the plug before Skynet gets your Co-ords!
skynet = murdock jr. & rothschild sibling enterprise coming to your corner of dedicated bits-of-bytes porous bandwidth,...
btw: did you see obama [~ 6 months] in mt. view, calif. - sitting [elongated board table for the snoop police purveyors of 'it' surveillance technology - ''looked like the last supper?"] at his right, the 'zuckerman' and to his left the 'job'man, with schmidt [ former google/ apple] seated at left corner, and the king of narcissistic fools 'ellis' face-to-face with the 'just-looking-for-jobs-creation' matchmaker, the berry-barry picking their brains, while raising a toast of mistrust?
There is also an organized effort to pollute FaceBuch's database by entering as many erroneous picture "tags" as possible. Correct tags are re-tagged as "Elmer Fudd", etc. Also popular is tagging pictures of trees and dress dummies as popular public figures. The best way to do this is with a separate browser so FaceBuch's tracking cookies stay fenced in and separate from your everyday-use browser. The idea is to trash their database to make it less marketable and thereby costing Suckerberger $$$.
I have real concern with the picture tagging. It does not portend goodness that lies ahead.
I have observed that in Facebook and can confirm that... most of the time good looking women's profiles who immediately join 'dating, rating and get more friends' style applications, make a few posts here and there and welcome all as friends. Once the profile has 100-200 friends it's good to go and will be revisited by the company again only very seldom to keep up a remote appearance of a real human behind the profile.
It doesn't look suspicious until you see tens and tens of profiles coming online in a row, everyone using the exact same formula for creating their fake personal data, doing exact the same actions to publish their profile and to get more friends.
This has been going on for a long time...
This far all social media ipo's have been steaming turd piles and seems that's all they're ever going to be.
Great name for an award - And The Golden Turd Ball goes to......
Groupon should use their funds to acquire a BK law firm. One stop shopping for their clients, who they help put out of business.
its a firesale bitchez
Can somebody tell me – what’s Groupon?
I know it’s not mustard – that's Poupon.
It sounds like a lay
Down Mexico way,
Or a community toilet you poop on
me wanna buy kwl zh-tshirt and just got the fantastic idea of ye sellin' Banzai7-tshirts with fancy satire huh! me thinking fancy christmas gifts to mah manager go-f00k-yeself-banzaistyle
U all remember it was my idea motherf#¤%"#¤rs
The Groupon coupon called a "Share of Stock" will be good for bag holders getting waxed.
Short early and short often ...
Shart early and shart often...
Golden Turdballs, BITCCHEZZZZ!
There's a reason Google and Facebook do not want internet anonymity. It is excessively difficult to market to and to turn anonymous internet users' internet activity / personal info into a commodity.
Check out this talk with Jaron Larnier (try and look past his unconventional appearance, the guy is a baller)
http://tiny.cc/c5xeq
"Tiny" says - 'Sorry, we weren't able to locate that URL.'
No shit?
Wait until they start exploiting your "private browser" web browsing habits. :0
How much would you pay up to keep your loved ones from knowing that you're into whatever the hell you're into?
I met with one of the syndicate bankers (responsible for guaging interest and going on the roadshow to sell to PB, HFs, AM) for GRPN recently and, obviously pledged to anonimity, his very words were 'this POS is going to zero'.
Of course he had a very different presentation to the safe money crowd...
Yet another "shitty deal."
There are no retail suckers who are going to get involved th this.
It is the idiots at the pension funds etc who think they know a thing or two. They are going to get hosed.
Shitty deal indeed - guess who the lead is on this issue (well, there are 3, but you can guess who one of the 3 is).
GRPN actually has 11 firms co-running this thing, simply monstrous. Wanna get as much of the safe money crowd (the Templetons, Fidelitys, priv banks) as they can on this, firstly because HFs would simply submit bids and offer it right out soon as it goes on the secondary; and secondly these 'big fish' rarely sell within a few years of getting allocated their portion. THat way, the underwriters do good, especially if price doesnt deviate too much +/- from the initial price.
no people are actually going to buy this ipo. it will only be 'organizations' who manage other people's money by shitting off fees to themselves and goldman sachs.
mutual funds and funds managing people's money who possess cash/securities worth under 500,000 dollars should be prohibited from investing their money in these types of things, or in companies that invest in these types of things, no matter how indirectly.
shell games indeed. what kind of insanity is this groupon ipo? it shows you that the investment-gamblers ( i don't see how you can call them bankers anymore ) ....will throw their mother off a bridge just to generate fees. worse, they'd throw all of society off a bridge and are doing so as we speak.
Yes, this is the positive contribution we can expect from TBTF banks.
What a joke.
God's work.
Let's all get rich quick!
A Groupon for Greek Bonds? Buy one get two free?
Even more eggregious are LNKD and AWAY.
Soon all these turds will be flushed like... turds.
I sure am happy we spent trillions of our wealth to save wall street so they can keep performing this valuable service of raising investment capital....the very foundation of our capitalist system!!
Some losers might claim that it is just the opposite....that wall street consumes savings that might otherwise be used as investment capital from a dumbed-down public with the help of a cynical investment industry and a corrupted government.
Gosh..I'm seeing a Groupon ad on the ZH page..it looks so clickable...
I wonder how long it will take for a roll of groupon stocks to be cheaper then toilet paper
Is there anyway to change handles for this blog? I'd like to get a jump on the string of CEO removals: I want the "Unemployed CEO" moniker.
It is just a parody.
Groupon = POS
SP500 weekly chart shows megaphone wedge and looks bullish.
Market consensus became clearer on Friday so back to the original bullish analysis and SP500 weekly chart reverts to bullish/neutral.
More info:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
.........I'm confused I thought Gropeon was TSA's IPO....a sure winner.