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Groupon Open 50% Higher, Hits $30/Share

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Groupon opens at a market cap of about $18 billion. We won't even pretend to know what the magical forward EPS for that valuation is. But no, the real bubble is in gold... The only question we have is whether GRPN will drop below its IPO price in a matters of days or hours. Oh, and where and when can we buy puts, of course.

To the trader who bought at $31.14: that may have been a tad impulsive

UPDATE: GRPN trading at lows of day having printed with a $25 handle


 

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Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:57 | 1845197 HD
HD's picture

People only bought in because they had a coupon.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:03 | 1845232 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

the float is too small.  cross trades between insider is pushing up the price, so it can be broadcast in MSM, and mom & pop get suckered in.

Groupon is what's wront with our economy.  Built to flip companies consuming disproportiante amount of capital.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:25 | 1845276 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Float will increase. Just wait till the insider lockup expires. Plus they will issue more shares, just watch. LNKD just pulled this shit yesterday, now it is tanking.

I hate these stocks with a passion. If it doesn't pay dividends, I don't buy. But I may short the F out of it.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:34 | 1845312 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Prediction: GRPN will be delisted within 24 months.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:22 | 1845484 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

The insider lockup ALREADY expired. The vast majority of insiders cashed out BEFORE the IPO.

Really, just an unprecedentedly bad signal they sent by doing that; this pig is gonna go down HARD.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:47 | 1845921 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

a Pretty Penny for your overthruster Buckaroo.!!!???

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:59 | 1845665 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

dont' short it.  Float is too small. Insiders can squeeze you with their positions.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:48 | 1845930 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Insiders can squeeze you with their positions."

Maybe a nekked short is in order then?

This IPO was planned for just such an event.  They tried to create demand by limiting IPO share numbers (qty), and then hoped to feed into the short covering later with a "well timed new offering".

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:29 | 1845291 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Fools and their money are easily separated (the non-fools are the select few who either made money underwriting this turd, providing legal advice in the process of underwriting this turd, or had the ability to - as in were pre-selected and invited due to their whale status - to get in on the subscription price, as they can sell immediately, but that's ONLY if they sell in time (which probably means today, at or near the intraday highe).

What's old is new again.

To say the valuation of this turd is ridiculous insults the force of that adjective. This is a no proprietary model, zero barriers/cost (practically speaking) to entry, no moat, social networking-piggbacking piece of shit stock.

I'll predict that many of PoopedOn's employees are going to be extremely dissapointed they were forced to hold their shares for any period longer than the immediate future.

The Winners of the New World - TheStreet

The Winners of the New World By Jim Cramer February 29, 2000 - 09:42 AM EST

Editor's Note: James J. Cramer is the keynote speaker at the 6th Annual Internet and Electronic Commerce Conference and Exposition, held today at the Jacob Javits Center in New York City. We're running the full text of that speech here.

You want winners? You want me to put my Cramer Berkowitz hedge fund hat on and just discuss what my fund is buying today to try to make money tomorrow and the next day and the next? You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now.

OK. Here goes. Write them down -- no handouts here!: 724 Solutions (SVNX), Ariba (ARBA), Digital Island (ISLD), Exodus (EXDS), InfoSpace.com (INSP), Inktomi (INKT), Mercury Interactive (MERQ), Sonera (SNRA), VeriSign (VRSN) and Veritas Software (VRTS).

We are buying some of every one of these this morning as I give this speech. We buy them every day, particularly if they are down, which, no surprise given what they do, is very rare. And we will keep doing so until this period is over -- and it is very far from ending. Heck, people are just learning these stories on Wall Street, and the more they come to learn, the more they love and own! Most of these companies don't even have earnings per share, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:21 | 1845264 jiggerjuice
jiggerjuice's picture

Groupwned

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:29 | 1845292 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I regret that I only have one up vote to give.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:39 | 1845326 ghengis86
ghengis86's picture

GroupOff

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:57 | 1845654 hidingfromhelis
Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:57 | 1845198 Roland99
Roland99's picture

Groupon comes to save the day!

Gettin' my Groupon

Have you any Grey Groupon?

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:41 | 1845340 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

I ate a groupon sandwich one time. Delish!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:57 | 1845200 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Below 3 dollars in 18 months.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:25 | 1845267 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Hate to tell you, But a daytraders time frame is 18 seconds, Depending on your internet connection.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:28 | 1845288 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Thats why 90% of them lose money.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:54 | 1845368 TruthInSunshine
Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:00 | 1845671 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

That was possible within one hour of the open.  Shorted at $29.60 and covered at $26ish.  IB of course.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:58 | 1845201 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Hard to believe !

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:58 | 1845202 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

5% float lol. You can make an IPO of your feces with that float.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:01 | 1845217 caerus
caerus's picture

poop-on

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:01 | 1845221 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

hahaa, crude... but hilarous. 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:58 | 1845203 Belarusian Bull
Belarusian Bull's picture

THIS IS MADNESS!!! MADNESS!!!!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:58 | 1845204 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

GroupCon takeoff isn't news...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:27 | 1845285 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

now thats funny! 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:36 | 1845323 ghengis86
ghengis86's picture

Well played sir ( even if it was served up oh so easily)

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 17:58 | 1846718 Pitchman
Pitchman's picture

A high water mark for American civilization.

Can you say Inflection Point?

This is the socionomic manifestation of the Tape Worm economy on it's last leg; sucking the life out of independent businesses nationwide.

- Inflection Point

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:58 | 1845208 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Not that I would short it...because tight offerings like Grouper(lol)  the float is controlled and small, have a bias higher...but I can't even find any shares today to short... but its fun watching this POS on my screen

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 10:59 | 1845211 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

"real bubble is in gold", LOL!

I keep thinking that people aren't that stupid, but they really are!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:50 | 1845367 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

When you figure how stupid the average man is, you have to remember that half of the remaining men in the world are more stupid than him...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:00 | 1845214 Karl Tashjian
Karl Tashjian's picture

Puts aren't tradin' yet. Least not on my platform.

 

I'd love to meet the sucker that'd write them though. I've got some Greek debt I could sell 'em. :D

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:01 | 1845218 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Ummm......has this pig ever made a single dollar in profit?

Seriously, is this a sick joke? How can a company that is a serial money loser sell like hotcakes? These guys have lost a half a billion dollars......yet the sheep are snapping up the IPO. Twisted.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:01 | 1845220 rumblefish
rumblefish's picture

lets see some financials on this turd. 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:01 | 1845222 jonan
jonan's picture

can i has my puts yet?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:02 | 1845223 Capitalist10
Capitalist10's picture

With markets this stupid, Greece should float an IPO.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:38 | 1845327 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Many Greek oligatchs (who are generally in shipping) have done that for years.  They have a private fleet of ships and use the publicly US-listed companies to steal money by doing sweetheart deals with their private companies.  No one does it better than Greek billionaire George Economou.  But at least he calls a spade a spade - "'Because Americans are the dumbest investors around"

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:41 | 1845335 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Sorry duplicate

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:04 | 1845233 mr.5280
mr.5280's picture

Penny stock, here we comeeeee!!!!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:04 | 1845234 bdc63
bdc63's picture

I vote hours ... what a freakin joke this is.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:04 | 1845235 Robot Trader's ...
Robot Trader's brother's picture

I think my brother went all in on Groupon......

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:04 | 1845237 HD
HD's picture

Shares available to short yet?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:05 | 1845244 silver500
silver500's picture

Yes, just sold at $28

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:20 | 1845262 jonan
jonan's picture

really? i tried to short with a $26 stop and schwab wouldn't accept my stop order...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:45 | 1845911 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Going to 32$ because gropeon, is twice the company of GE. Obiously Bernanke has come up with another scheme to soak up excess liquidity caused by the QE twins.

a fool and his money, groupeon a dog turd wrapped in a business plan and delivered in flames on your doorstep courtesy of an IPO.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:02 | 1845682 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

Yes, at Interactive Brokers

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:28 | 1845245 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

When was the last time we had an IPO of a company that actually produced something?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:41 | 1845342 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

GM.

Sob.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 20:38 | 1847174 Judge Holden
Judge Holden's picture

Tesla?  (Though I'm sure there are other less flashy ones.)

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:07 | 1845253 SDRII
SDRII's picture

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/11/03/175243.html

Libya’s central bank looks to IMF amid cash crisis

Libya’s acute cash crisis is set to get worse and its banking system requires a complete overhaul that will be guided by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, the central bank’s recently appointed governor said.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:22 | 1845266 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Those people will be going full egypt inside of 3 months.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:08 | 1845255 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

From Poop-on to Poupon just like that. It's all in how you say it, that's all. I wonder how long before these newly minted billionaires start buying "sky-scrapers" and shit?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:09 | 1845257 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

People! Stop acting like this is 1999 all over again! Oh, wait.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:12 | 1845260 Amused2Death
Amused2Death's picture

EFSF is buying shares; since they can't even raise

3B in bond sale, to leverage up, you know...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:22 | 1845269 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Couldn't find any puts. What a POS this thing is.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:24 | 1845272 infinity8
infinity8's picture

Reeeeeeeee-tarded! - yodel it like in the Ricola cough drop ad. . .

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:24 | 1845274 comrade rally monkey
comrade rally monkey's picture

tosh tie in-

 

"Oh, and where and when can we buy puts, of course"

 

try MF global..... 'Oh , wait....'

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:25 | 1845277 jonan
jonan's picture

is the server crashing or something?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:25 | 1845279 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

quick - get pisani or bill griffeth

why isnt the market soaring on those marvelous job numbers - they said investor confidence was growing

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:26 | 1845281 nyse
nyse's picture

Short this fukin dog. No cash flow = Poopon

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:43 | 1845898 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

No earnings = CRM = Stock price to the moon = Buy GRPN!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:27 | 1845282 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Float is too small to short.  Been there, done that--got the shrapnel in the gut to show for it. 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:28 | 1845287 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Watch the HFTs float it higher throughout the day.  Moral boost for the market. 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:42 | 1845344 Roy T
Roy T's picture

I agree, once the institutions that bought last night at $20.00 have totally flipped out of their positions, I believe this goes higher for the rest of the day.  That being said, Groupon looks like a real dog.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:31 | 1845300 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

This turd could take months to find its true level in the bowl.  Patience.  CMG may be riper. 

not that I will touch either; I just short SPY myself, the Bots rake the spectrum for short positions particularly on low-float shitballs like CMG and this one.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:33 | 1845305 tamboo
tamboo's picture

the idiots should get a complimentary grope on a rope.

 

http://nerdapproved.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/05/grope-on-a-rope.jpg?c...

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:33 | 1845310 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

The Crony drug dealers brought another big bag of coke to the party. All the addicts got so carried away with anticipation they snorted in a matter of minutes...Literally.  Now the dealers just walk away with a bag of cash and laugh at the addicts as they start jonesing. Lick the mirror bitchez, there still is a little residue left....

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:37 | 1845325 Minoan
Minoan's picture

Pyramid or Ponzi?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:54 | 1845974 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

This is Wall Street, we don't restrict choices, why not pyramid and ponzi, the best of both worlds and its frosted with fake accounting gimmicks and it has a creamy fraud filled center.

The question is how to keep it from self imploding before the buyer gets the box home and opens it up.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:38 | 1845328 djudy003
djudy003's picture

I disagree with the label given to this company as a technology company. All they have that has to do with technology is their website which can be created in a matter of 48 hours by two college students. All they have is a huge sales force. This company should labeled as an advertising agency a unique advertisting agency at best.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:42 | 1845345 MobBarley
MobBarley's picture

"All they have that has to do with technology is their website which can be created in a matter of 48 hours by two college students."

 

 

Reminds me of all the dot com ipo's back in 2000.

 

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:39 | 1845331 Let them all fail
Let them all fail's picture

And Zynga investors rejoice.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:39 | 1845338 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

PUMP AND DUMP BABY - YEAH!

 

How's Linked in doing?

 

I know I'm old school - but how does a company get valued at $20 Billion when it makes no profit?

 

Can you eat revenue?

 

This is the worst of times...

 

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:56 | 1845382 g speed
g speed's picture

pleeese git with the time---this outfit can generate billions in debt-- show bottom line of massive profits -- pay millions in bonus to execs and top MBAs  --write billions in hedges on other corporations -- give millions in pac and private political money and all with out producing anything--- Its clear you don't understand how to run a business.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:40 | 1845574 Let them all fail
Let them all fail's picture

Silly old school guy with your "fundamentals" and "valuations" and "research" - The industry's new motto should be "if you ain't buying you're dying", or something like that

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:44 | 1845354 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

ponzi scheme. groupon partners do not even make money of their deals. will be out of business in most 2 years

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:56 | 1845361 monopoly
monopoly's picture

And more investors wealth will be destroyed with this absurd IPO>

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:51 | 1845362 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

OT:
For the daily caption contest, I would recommend this picture:
http://cdn.spiegel.de/images/image-279817-galleryV9-uygt.jpg

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:56 | 1845385 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

I'd go with,

"Angie, Baby, you know we consider the US as part of the EU. That's why I came to give my big speech in Berlin, of course. So when are the bailout offers coming our way? We wouldn't dare try to hold a referendum."

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:59 | 1845397 Amused2Death
Amused2Death's picture

What's the deal with our Presidents always groping Merkel?

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:04 | 1845414 moldygoat
moldygoat's picture

Cause they like the feeling of her hard dick poking their thigh!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:52 | 1845371 bahaar
bahaar's picture

"Oh, and where and when can we buy puts, of course."

 

On GRPN maybe.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 11:55 | 1845378 ZeroDown
ZeroDown's picture

Waiting for the clear signal to buy: Dick Bove on CNBC pumping GRPN! 

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:01 | 1845403 DizzySailor
DizzySailor's picture

TREFIS is saying value is $13.00

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:33 | 1845430 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You forgot the negative sign there.

I am being serious.

Does anyone think there won't be competitors with cheaper cost structures, and bigger user bases than PoopOn, that pluck retailers off with far less asked in return, soon, and that's assuming that this no proprietary, nearly zero cost barrier to entry business model is even sustainable?

Retailers are already hurting. The whole idea that they're going to give away a large chunk of their revenue to what's basically a referral service in a literal sea of referral services and far more cost effective marketing is a pathetic joke.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 14:03 | 1846016 dalasp
dalasp's picture

You guys seriously need to do some research before spouting off all this negative garbage. Groupon has actually been taking market share from competitors over the past couple of months. Facebook tried to pick it up, and dropped it within 2 months because it didnt work for them; but like you say, no barriers to entry... And yes, retailers may be hurting, so a Groupon is actually one of the cheapest ways to drive volume vs. advertising. Its also the fastest growing company of all time. Is it a $20B company? Who knows, but the market today is saying it is. The difficulty in pricing the thing is that there has never been another company like it. 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 15:28 | 1846321 jonan
jonan's picture

in today's manipulated markets, every formula and valuation method in securities analysis won't work, the bots will take your calcs, shove it up your ass, and cut your wanker off while taking your wallet and 1st born...

all your calculations are belong to us bitchez...

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:08 | 1845427 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Gonna get squeezed.

 

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:10 | 1845437 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Dow is down 143 frikkin points. Everyone must be changing their dead financial vehicles.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:10 | 1845438 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

People appear willing to buy anything.  The less value,  the more attracted they are to it.  Now they are willing to buy what 99% of us believe is trash to be recycled or used to stoke the fire.   Should I sell my pet rock collection now?  How about canned air?   Are the Milli Vanilli discs now worth something too?   What about that warehouse full of Chia Pets that now have coats 20 meters long?

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:11 | 1845440 blueRidgeBoy
blueRidgeBoy's picture

"But no, the real bubble is in gold"

Love the humor at ZH

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:15 | 1845447 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I opened my Grey Poupon and it was 50% down ? Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Lip Smacker's Lament

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:14 | 1845452 billsykes
billsykes's picture

What a bunch of crap companies, groupon and linkedin. I just checked linked in, a PE of 1830? and revenue of 243m and pre tax of 19m that's it? Only 1 positive yr of earnings? where is the value and why isnt the stock dropping faster?

 

 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:17 | 1845458 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Coupons, lol sarc on.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:22 | 1845474 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'To the trader who bought at $31.16'

You only speak in vowels with the barrel of a gun in your mouth. 

My nod to the ZH fight club theme for the day.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:25 | 1845499 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Groupon! Now with 70% more lesbian action!

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 12:41 | 1845581 youngman
youngman's picture

33 million shares traded already...lol

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:09 | 1845712 KingdomKum
KingdomKum's picture

There's a sucker born every second . . . 

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:27 | 1845787 tigersea
tigersea's picture

business model can be easily copied. business entry barrier is very low. competitors are alreay around. only sucker will buy @50% preimum.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 13:51 | 1845955 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

What I find hilarious is that the third largest coupon company in the USA imploded last month, sacking 90% of its employees without notice. Which probably means the 2nd largest isn't in good shape either.

 

Talk about milking a dying cash cow before BSE sets in.

Fri, 11/04/2011 - 14:34 | 1846157 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Quote from Mark Hulbert

 

"since many are likening Groupon to Google"

 

Yeah Mark, everyone seems to really draw paralells from Groupon to Google.  Jeez Mark, c'mon man

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