Guess what? It IS 2008, or at least late 2007!

Tyler Durden's picture

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

For at least the past year, whenever there is any decent sell-off in stocks, virtually every perma-bull trots out the tired platitude that “it isn’t 2008”.  Concern over sovereign debt problems in Europe get brushed aside with a simple comment that “it isn’t Lehman”.  Well, guess what, it is starting to feel a lot like 2008 again, or at least the summer of 2007. 

The market is selling off today on rumors and fears of some European bank being on the brink of default.  Monday, it was BAC that was rumored to be in big trouble.  Markets are moving again because of rumors of bank problems.  That sounds a lot like 2007 and 2008 to me.  People are shooting first, asking questions later again.  Any of SocGen, Intesa, Dexia, BAC are big enough to provide the market with a “Lehman moment”.  Notice the geographical diversification?  The contagion was never really at the sovereigns, it is at the banks.  I have argued over and over that each sovereign problem was relatively independent; whereas, the banks are all inter-connected.  

I think we should have learned from 2008, that banks in particular take a long time to default.  They have many ways to raise money, and I’m sure the Fed and ECB would accommodate them, so I doubt default occurs any time soon, but that is not the point, the point is that markets are moving on fears that they could.  All the disaster scenarios that the perma-bulls have said aren’t in play this time, are back on the table.  Lots of money was made shorting banks that got into huge trouble.  Lots of money was made buying banks that had crushed on overly aggressive rumors of their demise.  It is hard to believe that just a few months ago, the CEO of at least one of these companies was complaining about higher capital requirements and has been trying to pay a dividend.  It is hard to believe, but as someone pointed out to me, it was hard to believe Lehman didn’t do a big capital raise in between March and September 2008.

Just like in 2008, liquidity has been fleeing asset class after asset class.  Liquidity fled the European sovereign debt market months ago, and has left other markets, finally deserting U.S. equities in the past 5 days.  I have ranted about the markets being broken, and it is this lack of liquidity that I am lamenting.  Assets can go up and down in a broken market, they just happen to move far more than you would expect on any given news or rumor.  $2.2 trillion of Spanish and Italian debt got re-priced by 100 bps in 3 days.  Assuming an average duration of 2.5, that is a €55 billion change in value of the debt of those two countries.  All from purchases alleged to be less than €10 billion.  Put simply, the market is broken.
Small and nimble positions remain the order of the day.  I still have a few IG200 hats, which I hope don’t have to come out again.  I also have an IG20 hat.  It is actually an IG200 hat that an incredibly frustrated bear crossed out the last zero in utter frustration at stock’s relentless climb late last year.

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runlevel's picture

Good news everyone... we have a package to deliver to ebola 9

More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

ehhh wait a minute....that's not very good news at all!

Sudden Debt's picture

Here you go panicking again....

let's just first open the package and taste whatever is inside.


gratefultraveller's picture

lol SD, there seems to be a "sweet" for you on in the table: PORT and WAFFLES

BaBaBouy's picture

USA FED Can bail 'Em all out ...


Whats another $5 Trill Between Buddies...

BaBaBouy's picture


Ahhh ... We can all rest easy now .?.......


France’s AAA Credit Affirmed by S&P, Moody’s


Aug 10, 2011 11:05 AM ET

Spirit Of Truth's picture

Seriously....given the massive disincentive of any nation to announce that a major bank has failed, how can markets expect any such occurence? Most knew BAC and C were insolvent 3 years ago, it's just a matter of not accounting for the fact.  How would this play out any differently in Europe?  The money masters know how to play the game.

TheTmfreak's picture

While it isn't very large since I had "just" started putting money towards it, I officially sent my HR an email telling them I want out. Its not alot of money but its all going to precious metals. I received an email from my company's "financial advisor" stating the following.

"Closer inspections of the market suggest the fundamentals are still strong.  Aside from the spotlight on our government dealing with the debt ceiling issue in a most unflattering manner, there is no single event or piece of news driving this decline.  Unlike late 2008, we are not worried our largest banks are on the brink of closing.  I was a young broker back in 1987 when the stock market suffered its worst one day drop in percentage terms.   Today, like 1987, the selling is not driven by fundamental issues and, in fact, the fundamental factors suggest the market is undervalued and getting more so with each decline.  You might wonder if this sell-off portends deeper economic worries but the evidence suggests this is not the case.


So, as an investor it is important to keep your focus on the long term and not be distracted by the current “white noise.”  Today, the market is on sale and I suggest savvy long term investors will want to do some shopping."

The moment I read this moronic email, I decided to pull my funny money out and do what I should have done when I started adding money in the first place.

max2205's picture

Below SPX 1,080 and watch the towels get thrown in...... just the PPT only able to keep a retest of the lows from happenning...piss poor job i'd say

TheTmfreak's picture

Just realized I didn't say this is relating to a 401k account.

ElvisDog's picture

Yes, he gets paid for endlessly repeating the "fundamentals are strong", "stay invested for the long term", and "if stocks are on sale, buy more". You should send him a chart of the S&P going back to 2000 and ask for a list of the fundamentals that are strong. He'll send you back a bar graph showing how much you'll have in your 401K assuming 8% real returns for the next 30 years.

TheTmfreak's picture

I'm trying to explain this to people. Think about this. You even mention 401k to a person and i don't care what kind of bear you talk to they'll go "oh, 401k is a good idea because its basically like free money" Yeah.. sorta. Except you could end up with less nominal value than you put into it, regardless of how much your company "contributes." Oh and if you need the money, you may not be able to get it. By cashing my 401k out all i am doing is paying the government to get my same amount I paid back. So basically the IRS will make money, not me. What am i supposed to hold onto this 401k until I'm 65? Ok.. so around 2050. Do i really believe that my money is going to "grow" over time? Just like home values? Its so disarming, and anything that disarming and a "surefire" thing, is something I fear. The world doesn't work that way. "Free money, always goes up, whats not to like?" I'll pass.

I'm now being told by my HR i can't cash out until i leave the company. I'm now trying to get a hold of the investment firm, to get the real scoop. I mean i don't care if that account goes to zero at this point, however, I do want those metals for cheap.

Stax Edwards's picture

Easy Killer.  Don't base your retirement on two weeks worth of moves in the markets. They will go down till they don't then back up again.

Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

This Smiths tune is applicable in all markets today:

(but you can replace "DJ" with Bernanke or your fave central banker)

Cleanclog's picture

Santelli had a great quote about 15 minutes ago on some Hedge funds losing credit lines and some collateral being triple margins.  "Those who can't find financing for positions they shouldn't have put on anyway".  Also "When everything is predicated o ns-t rates and O/N funds, leverage can be gone instantly.  Tough to fix!"

TruthInSunshine's picture

Leverage enriches on the upside, but is an army of epic destruction on the downside.

And one's secretary can't put Mr. Margin on hold when he calls, either.

Mr. Margin is an impatient, cruel, soul-less sonofabitch.

Ricky Bobby's picture

Kind of like the Grimm Reaper. No check in the mail bitch pay up and in full.

Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

I reckon more like the Dementors. They're not going to completely kill you, but you'll wish you were dead after a while.

LongBalls's picture

They are going to launch the NWO Currency this time. 


SheepDog-One's picture

First they need world war and big depopulation before any 1 world govt, 1 world currency, they must reduce population by their own stated levels of 60% lower at least. The population is the problem, from their point of view. We aint seen nothin yet folks.

toady's picture

Thats the word my algos look for;


Midwest Prepper's picture

Buy some more Transitory, Traditional Gold...

LoneStarHog's picture

But...but...SocGen denies everything...Calling Dick Fuld...Calling Dick Fuld...

OpenEyes's picture

Free Peas for Everybody!

geminiRX's picture

Or maybe it's green (para)chutes?

Sudden Debt's picture

it says "Soylent Green" on the packaging...


Outlaw Of The Wasteland's picture

simon hobbs thinks this is all ridiculous.

cossack55's picture

Ridiculous people enjoy ridiculous outcomes.  Self-reinforcing nonsense.

Spitzer's picture

Its not lack of liquidity, its an abundance. Gold stocks where down 70% in 2008, they are up today and when the dow was down 600 points.

Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

It's an asymmetry of liquidity.  Some entities lack it while others have it in abundance.

cossack55's picture

I've been sayin' for 4 years, burn em all. Did anyone listen. Apparently not. Heres a hint; take your fractional Reserve Lending and stick it.  Hooray for Iceland.

djsmps's picture

Art Cashin was interviewd by the CNBS clown-twit Simon and said the same thing today. Something seems unpleasant listening to the screechy whiny voice of that clown-twit Simon interviewing Art Cashin. I miss Mark Haines.

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

This sooo much worse than 2008. Prepare for any outcome. Invest in farm land - if I am wrong, you can resell it. If I am right, you get to eat.

I am The Chief


cossack55's picture

Its obvious why you were elected Chief.


LongBalls's picture

Soros bought millions of acres in Africa on the cheap. First time I have ever heard such a thing. Meredith Whitney said this a.m. on CNBC that banks are converting from lenders of money to borrowers to investors of equities and our economy is shifting to a agriculture based economy. HMMMMM.... Sounds like your onto something Chief

HedgetBedgadget's picture

Lets say you have plenty of money right now and buy 10 ha of land. Lets say the shit makes a big splash on the fan.

Lets say you start working your land to provide food to your family.

Lets say autumn comes, and I and my Eastern European friends, all loaded with Ak47 and other cheap but deadly weaponry, are dying to get our hands on some food. And let's say we, now, read Zerohedge, and know that YOU have land and food.

And like all "machos" around here,  you're also loaded. So we plan. We wait for you.

At night when you're sleeping. We throw lots of Molotovs into your house. Your wife runs  out screaming. Your kids follow her. You are the last. Of course armed. From the safety of the trees and bushes, we snipe you. The lone wolf dies a heroic death, not knowing from where did the bullet came.

Bang you're dead. We get your wife, we get your kids and your food.

Think land or gold is a good investment?


The best investment is a local strong united group. A reinforced village. In other words a community. A society.

A country. A federation. That is what can protect idiots like you that think they are safe with their gold and their arable land in some forsaken corner of USA.


I'm baffled by you guys that act as if you want civilized society to end in an abrupt and utterly catastrophic manner.

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Hey Hedgetbed.... pound sand..

If you will refer to the demographics links on my site you would see this tract and my business is located in a solid rural area with hard working Americans. And I never said anything about wanting a collapse. Wanting one and preparing for one are two different animals.. so Blast Off.

I am The Chief

chinaguy's picture

So, you & your band of mercs come waltzing into our valley - How do you do that unnoticed with every dog in the valley ratting you out? How do you sneak anywhere with the dogs all barking and 1/2 of my neighbors have night vision. The SECOND they think there is an armed intrusion all of the sniper outlooks are going to manned by OUR GUYS with .308s & expensive optics.

Keep in good with your neighbors and your nonsense scenario will never come to pass. No one in their right mind wants any sort of MadMax scenario, but you are an idiot to think that these guys who have prepared are the pushovers you describe.



HedgetBedgadget's picture

So, tell me, between Zerohedge and some NY office job or whatever you do, when do you have time to get SEALs training and whatnot? When you buy your boss a Pizza from Dominos?

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Ever listen to Hank Williams Jr.....? A country boy can survive you arrogant eurotrash asswipe!

I am The Chief

HedgetBedgadget's picture

Lemme guess,  you're winning in Iraq and Afghanistan because of all the "tough young country American boys" and their ultra expensive optics and weaponry, that in their free time shot dogs at training session with all the red-necks from their village?


Americanz are quite a bunch.


Vergeltung's picture

you're a piece of shit (spit!)