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Guest Commentary: Disappointment - Has The Helicopter Stalled Out?
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
All we get is that the meeting in September will be 2 days instead of 1? With Europe being so weak and the market having been so resilient in the face of bad news this week and exuberant about good news, I think we have room to sell off. I really think we have to head towards the lows. Weirdly enough, AAPL, is once again outperforming the rest of the Nasdaq. I don't see that lasting forever.
For the shorts, there is now no obvious event to be scared of. Obama's 212th jobs in the future speech? I find it hard to believe that will be anything more than a yawn. Scared that Ben will intimidate Washington into doing something? Yeah, we saw their reaction to S&P - raid the offices and get the CEO fired.
There were enough shorts who were scared yesterday when SPX hit 1190, there will be some prudent covering at a profit, but I don't see how that lasts for long either.
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Stalled out?? Fuck it's been hit by a Stinger.....
with markets about to go green not stalled out
it's gone stealth (see you in September)
there doesnt need to be any more money printing to have higher inflation.
Takeaway from latest Peter Tchir reaction: no rally will last very long. He is probably short but still in the green, but getting a little nervous.
someone bought the dip today bigtime!! Call it the "Bernank bounce" in honor of Jackson's hole!
Apparently, Bernanke's helicopter fuel was being funded by Bank of America. Though I hear Buffet's on the way witha fuel truck.
"Stalled out?? Fuck it's been hit by a Stinger...."
In other news, the Department of Homeland Security announced that they are investigating evidence that suggests Tea Party terrorists have come into possession of surface-to-air missiles.
These dumbies think Greece can last 3 weeks and our politicians can help.
Its about to become the most expensive lawnmower in history.
The helicopter needs to crash and burn... hopefully crash on the White House while Krugman is in meeting with Obama....
Weirdly? Nasdaq is now up 1%.
On Monday, the DJIA rallied 300 points, as worse than expected news led investors to believe QE3 would be arriving by Friday.
And now, on the Friday, without QE3, stock don't give back these gains, but even gain!
Yeah, that's a healthy market economy, completely free of centrally planned intervention alright.
Manipulation.
The plan worked. They QE'd to the point that the market no longer needs actual QE to gain. Now they just have to make vague promises and it floats. Mission accomplished.
They poured a quadrillion into a trillion dollar market. Each stock should eventually be worth $1,000. But the way it works: a few will be worth $10 billon/share, most collapse to just pennies. Haves and have nots. SUck it
Hah! Plausible. Very plausible.
Vivek
Do some math, Michelle. The main impetus that sent the market higher from Fall 2010 to now was QE2. Now that QE2 is over, QE3 isn't on its way, and J6P has abandoned the market, where will the liquidity come from to keep the market at its artificially elevated level. I think it's far more likely that the S&P will be at 1000 by Oct 1 than 1200 by that date.
I don't think I turned the sarcasm up high enough on my post.
Sorry, Michelle. You'd be surprised how many ZH'ers still believe that Bernanke will always print money under any and all circumstances.
Just hope we don't get a massive power outage..
All those HFTs you know...
The Dax is getting crushed and breaking all support
The DAX went from 3600 in March '09 to 7600 high last May, and at the current 5471 has only dropped 50% of the rise: the new V2 formation:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGDAXI&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=b&c=
We get a year of fiscal stimulus measures going forward: housing/mortgage, jobs, infrastructure.
And Buffett will go long the relevant stocks the night before each announcement
There it is. YES, we get endless QE and the privileged few will get to front-run. QE will continue, it has just become too dangerous to interupt the public and inform them. Bascially Joe-six-pack just lost his "need to know" privileges. Public won't care either way, until they are all starving.
We will depend on Tyler more than ever to identify the flow of that QE.
Bernank Rule #1 - Never talk about QE (from now on).
Just do it.
And rule number 2 is NEVER TALK ABOUT QE!
...just keep doing it when nobody is looking...
Yep. Paul Rubin wrote that you should never confuse brilliance with a a bull market. It's different in the current environment - never confuse brilliance with getting privileged information before everybody else (think Stevie Cohen).
Dave in Denver had an excellent piece on Buffett yesterrday. I'd recommend everyone read it.
http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2011/08/think-buffet-investment-in-bac-i...
Thanks for the link.
Obama's push to remove Schneiderman is not exactly in keeping with the promises he made to get elected.
Fucking criminal. Goddamn lying, crooked cronyist. Fuck you, Obama. Fuck you.
What are you talking about? Obama can propose whatever he wants, but that doesn't mean it's going to happen. Do you really think a Republican house will pass Obama's highway infrastructure bill so soon after the debt ceiling debate. His "jobs" ideas seem to consist of that and a 2% payroll deduction, which only helps you if you have a job and even then amounts to about $20 a week for the average earner.
This is wrong:
"For the shorts, there is now no obvious event to be scared of. "
NFP number next week is now the event that could take us down another leg.
The Bernanke always struck me as the financial equivalent of Randall Flagg ("The Stand")... i.e. The Last Magician
But seriously, whoda thunk that he could keep the wheels on the bus as long as he had? The real culprit is the Maestro, who is only now seeing the error of his ways....
This ramp is designed to scare shorts off the easy money...
Who wants to hold over the weekend...will buying to cover and selling to get out be a manipulated washout holiday for HFT...Stay Tuned!
Holycow Batman!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nltVuSH-lQM&feature=related
Hah, told you so all you "QE3, QE3, QE3" zombies. Bernanke did exactly what I predicted he would do yesterday. A big, fat nothing-burger. Vague statements about "additional policy tools" but nothing concrete. We can speculate on the reasons, but for now the Fed will not step in.
Bernanke is trapped so he lies.
Volatility is name of the game for the next four weeks.
Indeed!
The treasury also runs wild, Bernanke is indeed the trouble maker. Without him, how can we have this type of volatility?
ALL ZH'ers -- VOTE ASAP:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44275832 ---------------------------------------- "Do you have confidence Bernanke can keep the economy growing?" Results at link. Vote is on-going. Consistently 3-to-1 against Bernanke as vote comes in.What's the point? If it shows something they don't like, they'll just reset all against-Bernenke votes.
Benny is not saying if he will actually use the chopper.
He is not even acknowledging if the chopper actually works or not.
He's just sayin that he's got a chopper sitting in the hangar.
But O what a chopper...
The chopper saves banksters, it will continue to fly on that basis.
Stealth chopper.
Blue Thunder?
Ground effect while over loaded with fiat. Not yet time for "go for power up".
after last year's debacle when commodities ramped, banana boy had to keep a lid on the qe talk today. Since Turbo has the PPT running to the rescue, and the Crimex with it's PM margin hikes there to help spin this as responsible. Another day in Ponzi ville
... and there goes another week of our lives we'll never get back. Now,... kick the can through Sept 20th. One step closer to the Statue of Limitations drop dead-date finish line.
So, it's agreed. We need two days to chat up another chapter of the story, and remember, we can't handle any more jobs right now - or we have a BZIRP (Bankster Zero Interest Rate Policy) problem with worker wage demand/cost push no-flation.
Like the three bears fairytale.., 1% GDP is just right for the "middle digit" Bankster types.
Bernanke needs to dig deep and be a leader. He needs to come out and say that the Fed is not responsible for fixing the economy, that is the job of our political leaders. Tell the nation that he and the Fed have done all they can. Its time to put the responsibilty where it belongs, with the President.
Gold and inflation took his pilot's license away...
The market has "NO" logical sense. Look at the ramp job going on right now. When do the September Gold contracts go off the board ? Who's gonna roll, who's gonna sell and who's callin for delivery ?
Obama needs to figure out how to RETRIEVE this, and all our money woes would be over, he and BuhBuhBenny & the Inepts.
<http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/25/us-planet-diamond-idUSTRE77O69... >
There will be no monetary easing. M2 magically goes up 20% by itself.
The local spin has it at "Bernanke prepared to spur growth".
Yep, QE3 ready and waiting to bail out the banksters once again, lol.
Geez, when will the ponzi end?
The CEO of S&P was not fired. I won't try to convince you that I personally know the situation. But if you have ever been involved in a senior executive search, you would know that landing a senior executive into a new role is a six-month process. McGraw-Hill has been looking for a replacement for Deven Sharma for more than six months. I only tell you all this since it is important to gauge the credibility of the writer. I sigh when I see posting that I want to trust then I realize that the content is made up since in this particular case I know exactly the situation
"I sigh when I see posting that I want to trust then I realize that the content is made up since in this particular case I know exactly the situation"
I think you know as much about this issue as you do about the english language...
Blah, blah, blah..........since this article appeared the Dow is +275. Stalled out my ass.