Guest Macro Commentary: The “Our Capital Levels Are Adequate” Dance

Tyler Durden's picture




 
0
Your rating: None
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 08/11/2011 - 11:51 | 1551128 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The check is in the mail. I'll never lie to you again. I only did it once.

Any more out there?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:05 | 1551180 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

capital levels may be "adequate", but gold prices are certainly not!

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/10/how-high-will-gold-go/ 

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:22 | 1551238 Hard1
Hard1's picture

This market has become really easy to profit from, just short the banks that comment on their strength or the sovereign bonds of any country that states that it is not Greece...oh, and also Greece

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:13 | 1551204 Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

I won't come in your mouth?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:53 | 1551332 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

How many times have I told you to put that thing away?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:19 | 1551227 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Ben Bernanke (November 21, 2002) "The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at no cost."

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 13:07 | 1551370 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

By enhancing liquidity, credit derivatives achieve the financial equivalent of a “free lunch”

 

- mistress blythe masters

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 13:30 | 1551445 tsx500
tsx500's picture

no, really honey, your ass doesn't look fat in that dress ...

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:02 | 1551134 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

By definition, adequate capital is always a hope of, rather than a fact of, fractional reserve banking, where it is all about maintaining the confidence of the depositors. Should that confidence fail (bank runs), then the game becomes all about passing the losses on to the taxpayer.  Rinse, wash, repeat.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:03 | 1551170 fx
fx's picture

This is getting silly! if the banks had NOT taken on this enormous, often hidden leverage, the U.S. consumer and the govt. would long ago had to stop spending money they didn't have on things they didn't need - be it ipads or foreign wars.. Now, is it alone the banks' fault that the consumer got ever more into debt?. In most parts of the now oh-so blamed Europe, consumers did never go so much into debt! european banks are still holding quite an amount of private and public U.S. debt, btw.

it's very easy and popular these days to blame the reckless lenders which sounds legitimate - if it wasn't coming from the even more reckless borrowers!

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:18 | 1551183 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

if the banks had NOT taken on this enormous, often hidden leverage, the U.S. consumer and the govt. would long ago had to stop spending money they didn't have on things they didn't need - be it ipads or foreign wars..

Agreed.  That would be a bad thing?

10 "I also, with my brethren and my servants, am lending them money and grain. Please, let us stop this usury!
 
11 "Restore now to them, even this day, their lands, their vineyards, their olive groves, and their houses, also a hundredth of the money and the grain, the new wine and the oil, that you have charged them."
 

-Nehemiah 5:10,11

 

http://www.tentmaker.org/lists/UsuryScriptureList.html

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:14 | 1551206 Kayman
Kayman's picture

fx

So true. BUT... the drug dealers (the banks) and the debt addicts (the American consumer) were encouraged by the Fed and the U.S. government.

It seems no one in the mix, ever heard of personal responsibility, or putting the country ahead of one moment of personal gain.

 

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:06 | 1551185 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Hope turns to doubt, doubt turns to fear, fear turns to panic. The psychological profile of the markets. We've come off the hope and are in the doubt stage, with bouts of fear. Soon we'll be solidly in the fear stage, and when we have bouts of panic, they'll need more fans for the shit that will be flying. When it's all out panic, it will be raw.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:52 | 1551327 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, w_d, i thought i saw some panic on monday. 

this is a paste:  Perhaps the best option here is for the US and Europe to join hands and craft a global balance sheet reorganization, aka The Great Reset, bilaterally.

oh?  really?  wtf?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 13:39 | 1551464 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Yeah, Slewie, I caught that quote, too. Sounds kind of New World Ordery doesn't it?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 14:04 | 1551528 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

wld you like fries w/ that, dawg?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:21 | 1551231 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

Further to that, what is often referred to as "capital" is often just debts = credits, not assets and certainly not money.

Debts are derivatives of cash flows and collateral. If those underlying cash flows and collateral assets are gone, the debt "asset" itself suddenly becomes worthless. With low rates, even a small cash flow can sustain a very large debt. Hence these derivatives allow an enormous amounts of liabilities to be held using very small cash flows. Valuation of sovereign debt is a derivative of the certainty of underlying net surplus of taxpayer money inflows. Once our dear taxpayer goes on strike, any "assets" derived on that cashflow disappears.

This is what hasn't dawned on a lot of people, debts are derivatives. Once the Fed et al raises rates, the debt pyramid is going to implode.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 13:48 | 1551489 Steaming_Wookie_Doo
Steaming_Wookie_Doo's picture

I offer this snippet from The Golden Jackass (http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article29810.html)

 

My harping disrespectful criticism of the deflation camp with all their half-blind observations and blockheaded conclusions and mindnumbing errant forecasts has been steady and well deserved. The best description of the current situation is the collision of high pressure zones against low pressure zones. The high pressure is the result of thrust by central banks of monetary expansion that has actually wrecked the USFed balance sheet, and the EuroCB balance sheet. Each is the shameful owner of worthless mortgage bonds and sovereign bonds respectively, that nobody wants, that will never recover in price. The low pressure is the result of a powerful push by falling housing prices and big bank balance sheet insolvency. The banks are making a transition from insolvent Zombies to undercapitalized Dead Made Men. They are soon to be recognized as dead. They are agents of the Syndicate, and thus guaranteed for slush fund income from multiple sources.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 11:54 | 1551142 onlooker
onlooker's picture

"""" when this current bout of bad news eventually passes """

should I hold my breath?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 11:57 | 1551154 reader2010
reader2010's picture

"The market has sold off in such a rapid way with so much momentum that I am smelling as if something really wrong will happen in the next two or three months. Because the market is a discounting mechanism...in March 2009, the market went up and people were baffled by that. And now it goes down, and maybe in three months, people will wake up scratch their head and understand why..." - Marc Faber, 8/10/11

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 11:58 | 1551155 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I have some good news folks, The President delivers remarks at Johnson Controls @ 2:40ish. You know no what that means..

Fasten your seatbelt at market closing.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/schedule/complete

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:03 | 1551175 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Starting tomorrow Obama has "No public schedule."

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:12 | 1551195 RobD
RobD's picture

Now that is some good news!

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:00 | 1551163 RiskAverseAlertBlog
RiskAverseAlertBlog's picture

“Our capital levels are adequate.” The ultimate contrarian's sell signal in the new normal...

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:01 | 1551165 anarkst
anarkst's picture

"We need banks in our society,... ."

Wrong, we DO NOT need banks in our socierty.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:13 | 1551201 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Right....7 billion people will just "go Amish". Do you financial Luddites really believe the crap you tout?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:16 | 1551218 SMG
SMG's picture

Correction, we do not need these fractional reserve, parasitic current banks in our society.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:45 | 1551302 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Fractional reserves are a consequence of banking as competition drives it during the boom.  However, in a sane and/or decentralized banking system where failure is not rewarded, the bust takes out the garbage that extended too far.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 13:24 | 1551346 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Rewarding the failure of banks by socializing the losses is one of the central tenets of The Federal Reserve. 

Read all about it in this book:

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 14:02 | 1551521 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

HH, I'm reading it for the second time. So much info to absorb, I'm picking up things I missed on the first pass. Definitely a must read for anyone who wants to understand our financial system and how we arrived here with this catastrophic mess.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 14:09 | 1551538 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

G. Edward Griffin's solutions presented towards the end of the book are some of the best I have ever seen, in terms of returning to a workable gold/silver standard without any central banking apparatus.

Make sure when you buy the book to get the latest edition (5th Edition) which has been updated to include the content of the 2008 financial crisis.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 15:41 | 1551780 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Woohoo! Bank Panics for everyone!

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 13:05 | 1551361 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Because you can't have banks without fractional reserve lending...or change the ratios to something less insane than 40:1?

Try again. This time without a false dichotomy.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:30 | 1551262 Whittaker
Whittaker's picture

Go Amish? Last I checked, banks did not produce electric power or manufacture cars. And people are perfectly capable of saving, lending and borrowing money without going through government-chartered boondoggles.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 13:09 | 1551375 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Name one large-scale industry (like your example of car manufacturing) that existed prior to the banking industry.

People can save, lend, and borrow, but not at the scale of capital formation required for the endeavours you describe.

Should fractional reserve lending be reigned in? Yes.

Should investment banks be completely divorced from depository institutions? Yes.

Can we really have a capitalist society without ANY banking? Uh, no.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 13:31 | 1551404 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

I agree with your paragraphs 2-4.

Regarding paragraph 1...

Name one large-scale industry (like your example of car manufacturing) that existed prior to the banking industry.

...correlation does not equal causation. One could substitue any number of large industries for banking in this premise, starting with the oil industry.

I will also add this: 

Can we really have a sustainable society with an unsustainable banking industry? Uh, no.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 14:15 | 1551548 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

this is where the nutty prof fekete is so good with his "bills of credit" lecturezzz...

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 15:39 | 1551774 snowball777
snowball777's picture

The keyword being 'unsustainable'. I'm not arguing for the status quo, but rather against the complete elimination of banking as a practice.

Correlation is one thing, but a definite chain of causation can be presented; even if you were talking about something that didn't require the fundaments of industrialization like oil

(say...knitting...sheep, grass, shears, needles and looms or people), you would have a tough time reaching any kind of economy of scale without the assistance of at least a credit union or other cooperative.

Banking and credit itself are tools. Claiming that we need to abolish them due to misuse and abuse is analogous to saying we need to outlaw fire because of arsons (or guns because of criminals, if you prefer).

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 16:21 | 1551941 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

Banking system may exist as it is useful.

However, make it so that it is not allowed to charge interest, only fixed absolute fees for services. And as others have mentioned, put an end to fractional reserve banking.

And Glass Steagal please (of course).

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 00:01 | 1553282 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Make 2:1 reserve ratio...don't cripple lending for no reason, just take away the power to swamp the economy in bubbliciousness.

Agreed on Glass-Steagall...my bank should be a bank, not a bookie.

Cap interest at 8% secured and 12% unsecured, if you think the debtor should pay more, don't lend, but also don't pretend all debtors are alike and present zero risk, mmkay?

Even bankers gotta eat, yo!

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:03 | 1551174 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

So now they say "our capital levels are adequate".

Notice how careful they are to avoid using the words "well capitalized". Those two words are the kiss of death and they know it.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:05 | 1551181 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Until theTBTF black holes of capital are eliminated, the economies of the West will never be healed.

The only good news is that Western governments have painted themselves into a corner, and the Fed needs to scare the crap out of stockholders and into government debt, to keep the balloon afloat. 

This is the beginning of the end of macro intervention.  Printing is the last resort and that will just accelerate the collapse, Krugman's bleatings notwithstanding. 

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:09 | 1551188 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"Perhaps the best option here is for the US and Europe to join hands and craft a global balance sheet reorganization, aka The Great Reset, bilaterally.  At over 50% of global GDP, anything the US and Europe did together would almost certainly be influential enough to bring the rest of the world on board.  Think Bretton Woods III.  Yes, this would mean debt write-offs and the nationalization of the banks.  Yes, it would likely mean a drop in asset prices and could push the world into a recession.  And yes, it would likely mean that the end result would be the USD ending its reign as the world’s reserve currency."

 This proposal is too radical for any sovereign nation in the developed world to accept--at this point.   It also goes against nearly all of the principles of the current system.  No politician except Ron Paul would want that on their resume.       

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:10 | 1551191 monopoly
monopoly's picture

No public schedule for Obama? That means he will shut-up for a change. Luv it. Miners bouncing back even with gold down, this is a first and what I have been hoping for. Added early on when the "brilliant ones" sold there miners. No shorts, as usual. But at some point my bear will rock.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 00:08 | 1553296 snowball777
snowball777's picture

So....paper-holding assclown with zero balls.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:12 | 1551198 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

I think I'll pass on nationalizing banks....if I want that I'll move to Venezuela

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:43 | 1551300 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

at the rate they're screwing this thing up, we be there soon

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:14 | 1551210 Spastica Rex
Thu, 08/11/2011 - 12:16 | 1551216 monopoly
monopoly's picture

adequate means we are good till the weekend.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!