Guest Macro Commentary: Is Germany Playing Chicken With Ben Bernanke?

Tyler Durden's picture

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Everybodys All American's picture

Only problem is that the amount of QE3 necessary to create the solvency necessary to save EU banks is way beyond the debt ceiling.

lolmao500's picture

And? Has that ever stopped them? They will print till armageddon. If they have to print 20 trillion to bail out Europe, the US and the cleaning of Fukushima, they will do it.

Not to mention, ``assure an Obama victory`` in 2012. Since only 26% of Americans support Obama on the economy, they need to do some more QE till the election to make sure that 26% goes up...  they need to kick the can down the road.

SheepDog-One's picture

But QE is what caused his numbers to implode in the first place, so how does doing more help? No, there will be no Jackson Hole miracle gift from on high in the clouds. There will be no further can kicking, this is it...ZIRP for banksters and under the table QEeefing for banks here and there, till WW3 kicks off late fall.

eureka's picture

To QE+ or not to QE+ is NOT the question - US will cease to be, with it or without it - because no jobs will "be created" and no home prices will again "appreciate"; future Tea Party Republican austerity "rule" will kill the 150 Million 1/2 of the poor US population a little bit faster than continued Obama "rule".

"America" is a non-existent mythical construct - there is no "union" - there is only a crumbling conglomerate.

Rest in peace, oh myth of unipolar hegemony - as EU rises to your disbelief.

FlyPaper's picture

.... and so you are arguing for the Status Quo in regard to US government spending, because 150 million poor people will be impacted?

It is fanciful thinking to believe that Europe is going to do any better than the US in this debacle.

 

malek's picture

Ahem - if you closely enough, QE2 ending caused his numbers to implode. I don't like it, but I cannot deny it.

Spastica Rex's picture

"They" don't need Obama particularly; any bagman will do.

SheepDog-One's picture

It would take a $2.5 trillion QE to impress anyone at all, and if they did that the dollar would be totaly destroyed.

TARP/QE1 USD 90. Today, not so much.

SDRII's picture

Germany = production. Russia = Materials. Natural glance east not west, but for continuing US occup. Germany opted against a Libya role. Syria will be another tell.

Ropingdown's picture

Agree.  Sitting in southern europe on vacation, and surrounded by friends which include vacationing EU officials, I see a large reluctance to see Germany as fearful of peripheral debt, to see Germany inclined to turn eastward.  They would like to see Germany as a new Rome seeking to rule them.  I see Germany, Merkel, as afraid to associate with them.  I see your analysis as the natural one:  Ally with and buy into their most natural provider of oil, gas, industrial metals, and lumber.

Nothing To See Here's picture

"Printing is not an option as the Bundesbank, I mean ECB, given their disastrous history with (hyper)inflation, will be loathe to go the helicopter money drop route."

Once desperate, they may go the route of printing nevertheless. Merkel will drop her current coalition and join with the Social Democrats, who will gladly approve.

And anyway, the Ben Bernank will print if the ECB doesnt.

But at some point, what awaits those helicopters at the bottom of the money pit is a rancor.

"Oh no! A rancor!" -C3P0

SheepDog-One's picture

Right, Germany cant do money printing because we all know how badly that ended...but WE in the US can do as much money printing as we want because no such bad ending would happen, surely.

Caviar Emptor's picture

I disagree with a few of the "mainstream" "group-think" premises in this article.

First, Germany's position is not as 'robust' as many would like to believe. THeir debt/GDP is very similar to France. But their demographic is far more concerning. Ther export market has done well, but it's very narrowly focused on the ultra high-end. 

Next gold. It's not "very" overbought and technicals don't apply to fundamental tectonic shifts. As to endless comparisons to 1979-80, that's like the endless drivel about trying to compare our current recession with 1932...no 1982.....no 1873.....no 1907....

Finally, QE3. Everybody presumes it's a fix. And it's even been baked into the stock market. But Bernanke lately has given big indications that it won;t happen. For lots of reasons having to do with the reality that it worsened the recession and soured global economics. At a very high cost to US credit. I'm sticking my neck out for the 3rd time in saying that I think we'll get a big fiscal stimulus package soon, not monetary stimulus

CosmicBuddha's picture

"I'm sticking my neck out for the 3rd time in saying that I think we'll get a big fiscal stimulus package soon, not monetary stimulus"

 

Am I being a bit thick here, but if the US government performs a big fiscal stimulus it will have to issue even more debt to pay for this? Now if it issues more paper on top of the massive amounts that it is already issuing, and there aren't enough buyers out there, won't the prices come down and the yields start rising? Now if that happens, the already mountenous pile of debt becomes impossible to service and the US government enters a debt death spiral a la Greece. Now if that starts to happen, won't the Bernank have to crank up his printing press with QE3, then QE4, QE5, etc until the dollar is no more and the gold chart peak arrives at the surface of the Moon?

 

So in a nutshell: how can you have a fiscal stimulus in todays environment without a corresponding monetary stimulus to facilitate it?

StychoKiller's picture

One word:  GRIDLOCK!  Obamatron ain't gettin' any more "stimulus" thru a Congress controlled by the Republicons.  Wail and whine Decepticrats...

PaperBugsBurn's picture

I agree with you on all points. When you say it was at a high costs to global economics, I see it as a threat to bankster interests worldwide (money printing=inflation over there=destabilization of the regimes in bed with the banksters). What gives me pause is all these banks teetering on the edge in europe, some of which own the fed? But why would the fed save the euro, ie the competition?

FlyPaper's picture

(a) The longer they can keep the "system" upright, the more interest the banks earn.  (b) Contagion will impact over-extended broke-except-on-paper US banks.  (c)  Fed is there to prop up POTUS.

buzzsaw99's picture

The bernanke will buy all markets foreign and domestic. HE controls the vertical, HE controls the horizontal. The bernank is the wellspring of all banking profits. All glory and honor to the mighty and benficent oz, er, bernank.

SheepDog-One's picture

'All your souls are belong to us, the world central bankster cartel'.

Paper CRUSHer's picture

LOL.....and do not attempt to adjust your t.v. set.

CosmicBuddha's picture

"How we are stumbling around today with the same banks that almost crashed in 2008 with even greater market shares and low-visibility accounting is beyond my understanding."

 

Same here! The only possible explanation I can come up with is global systemic fraud at astronomically high levels. We need a complete systemic crash, quickly followed by the equivalent of the Nuremburg trials for all: senior bankers, central bankers, credit rating agency staff, politicians and any one else involved with this the greatest of heists in the 4.6 billion year history of the Earth.

HellFish's picture

Nuremburg -type trials?  The answer to my dreams.  Plenty of streetlights in NYC and DC to hang them all.

slaughterer's picture

"If I was Germany I would simply play chicken with Ben Bernanke and wait for the Fed to eventually turn on the QE pumps to bail out the PIIGS."

I think the situation in Germany is more complicated than that, although I agree with the necessary and imminent implementation of QE3. 

SheepDog-One's picture

We've been doing QE all along since QE2 end anyway...Jackson Hole will result in 'We're keeping things the way they are for an extended period, ZIRP and swaps, thats it'.

Paper CRUSHer's picture

Yeah,perfectly understandable since the German Blundersbank knows all to well what a hyper episode looks like when the wheelbarrrow becomes man's best companion whereas Dr.Ben greatest fears is deflation and therefor only understands one hyper, i.e. hyperdermic needle loaded with QE.

ColoradoNugget's picture

This just in....

*MERKEL SAYS 'WE DON'T WANT' EUROBONDS

*MERKEL SAYS EURO AREA WOULD BE WORSE OFF WITH JOINT BONDS

Down we go again.  The bounce was nice while it lasted.

Dick Darlington's picture

I guess Angie saw the latest German polls. 76% of Germans oppose eurobonds, 59% of Germans oppose all bailouts and 44% of Germans want their country out of euro.

SheepDog-One's picture

While Obama ignored 80% of americans were against raising the debt ceiling. He said americans are not politicians, therefore dont know what theyre talking about, and further said to sit down and eat your peas.

SheepDog-One's picture

LOL...but the financial media INSISTS Merkel loves their Eurobond planted rumor!

slaughterer's picture

C'mon Angie, Euro-bonds "will help you out." 

boiltherich's picture

How we are stumbling around today with the same banks that almost crashed in 2008 with even greater market shares and low-visibility accounting is beyond my understanding.

Ironic that this story is posted directly below this:

Bank of America's Dead Drop To Rick Perry: "We Will Help You Out"
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, no one is considering that BofA bagman might not have been telling Perry he will help them out with money, but with a top level hit.

slaughterer's picture

Exactly, the BAC Bond operative is sleezing around with some blonde vixen in Jackson Hole right now, just waiting for M(oynihan) to call him with the instructions.  It is all in Ian Fleming's unpublished manuscript:  Dr. Treason.

Flakmeister's picture

You must have missed it... there was a finacial coup d'etat. Codename TARP

Young Buckethead's picture

"Besides, it has to be admitted that Europe is no longer a motivating issue for the French" - Jacques Delors.

The EU Godfather has just declared every man for himself. The EMU is over.

eureka's picture

Incorrect. The EMU CORE - i.e. French-German EUR axis - is THE essential "motivating issue for the French".

U.S. "observers"commonly fail to understand the unspoken EU hierachy:

French-German CORE leads, Mediterra follows, U.S. controlled UK obstructs.

Hence: French-German unity is unquestionable and indominable - and will prevail.

Whereas: U.S. disintegrates within next nine months.

TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm all for a nice rumor, but they have to be at least plausible - you know, like a Keynesian, faux extraterrestrial invasion of planet earth, in order to stimulate the economy, designed by Paul Krugman.

A roughly 90% cut in German standard of living for two generations along with a doubling of taxation and quadrupling of inflation (I'm being redundant as they factor into standard of living), to bail out PIIGS+France is not going to happen.

Even Germans have limits and will physically 'voice' their displeasure with treason on the part of their 'elected' leaders.

falak pema's picture

Merkel wants her party to get reelected...This is short term clutch play for local crowd...No big deal on the real issues...Right now, they are under the water with the meltdown..like WS...

SheepDog-One's picture

At this point, theyre all damned if they do, damned if they dont...good luck 'trading' the collapse of the world.

Im going fishing.

Spitzer's picture

The ECB has the Fed hostage. The ECB is not keynesian.

lolmao500's picture

They are all keynesians. The ECB just can't be for now because of the rules it was founded on.. once they change those rules, they'll do like Bernanke.

gwar5's picture

The central banks have been allowed to evolve into a secret cult that represents our greatest security threat, and it is astonishing.  We all know about the Federal Reserve Act of 1913.  But no one seriously thought, except for them and their agents, that they would become the unaccountable shadow government that they are.  All those conspiratorial rumors about the central banks are true, and then some.

 

Young Buckethead's picture

Central Bank secret cult? The Third Reich was the brainchild of the Thule Society, and the Order of Teutons before that. Skull and Bones is an American offshoot of the German university chapters of the Thule Society. Forget about all the philosophic/magic crap, it's all about lineage.

It was Wall Street money that financed the Third Reich, as Germany was somewhat caught up in a certain Weimar problem, that will be soon be playing in a theatre near you.

The artist they hired to be the front man got a little out of control. Now it's a physics professor. The Fourth Reich is here, only the US is the lead.

The Germans were represented by a Warburg at the creation of our Fed. Conspiracy? You betcha.

eureka's picture

You are incorrect. The U.S. Ivy Leagues are the spawning grounds for U.S. facist corporate execs - and based on the UK nobility and gentleman club system.

The Anglos orchestrated globalism/financialization. I know, because I am one.

The world should be so lucky as to be run by German principles of productivity and fiscal restraint

Alas, we Anglos would be lucky to fail our satanic rites of leverage, gambling and enslavement of the world through fiat enforcement and military bamboozlement.

Remember that teh Bernank works for U.S. empire - and no one else.

U.S. empire disintegrates within the next nine months - with or without QE+.

eureka's picture

You are incorrect. The U.S. Ivy Leagues are the spawning grounds for U.S. fascist corporate execs - and tehy are based on the UK nobleman/lord/gentleman club system.

The Anglos orchestrated globalism/financialization. I know, because I am one.

The world should be so lucky as to be run by German principles of productivity and fiscal restraint

Alas, we Anglos would be lucky to fail our satanic rites of leverage, gambling and enslavement of the world through fiat enforcement and military bamboozlement.

Remember: The Bernank works exclusively for U.S. empire - and no one else.

U.S. empire disintegrates within the next nine months - with or without QE+.