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Guest Post: 2030: The World In Five Graphs

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Submitted by Finance Addict

2030: The World In Five Graphs

The following are from a report published last week by the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
They’re projections that assume today’s trends will continue in one direction only — which may not be the case. 

1. India will have more people than China.

 

2. The richest nations will see their middle classes decline, while the middle classes of all other regions increase.

 

3. There will be less oil used and more use of gas & renewables.

4. The Millennium Development Goals will not be reached on schedule, but poverty will still decline.

 

5. Water continues to run dry.

 

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Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:00 | 2384600 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

OT, but is rather interesting:

http://www.tripolipost.com/articledetail.asp?c=1&i=8289

The Austrian foreign ministry in Vienna said on Sunday, that Libya's former top oil industry official, Shokri Ghanem, has died in Austria of an apparent heart attack, 


"Heart attack", uhuh. The favourite way for inconvenient people to pass away.

I wonder what sort of information he had on the "rebels" who thought it first priority to setup a central bank.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:11 | 2384615 Seer
Seer's picture

WTF?  Down-arrows?

Was probably running too hard of a bargain (for "the pictures").  Silly rabbit, you don't have to be on the official "enemies" list to be a target.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:29 | 2384661 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And he happend to be found in a river... :)
It was yesterday on the news, about 5 seconds in total, followed by some crappy news that wasn't news for the rest of the 30 minutes :)

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:42 | 2384686 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Escapekey those Australian women are BANSHEES! Give anyone a heart attack.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 12:07 | 2385237 falak pema
falak pema's picture

in fact his heat broke when he leaned out of his window as he was found in the river Danube, blue, blue,blue.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 07:59 | 2384601 Ancona
Ancona's picture

The chart looks optimistic to me. After all, population growth is nearly exponential nopw, therefore it is a matter of time before we have some sort of collapse. Be it pollinators dying off, super drought...,..whatever, the carrying capacity of the planet has long ago been exceeded. Until people realize the planet cannot support five and six replacement people per breeding couple, we are doomed to a nasty death of widespread starvation and disease.

It's just a matter of time.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:04 | 2384605 freeasabee1
freeasabee1's picture

yeah, I agree.  I'm glad I don't have that many years left on this rock, the future is not that rosey.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:28 | 2384976 El
El's picture

Oddly in a way, it looks rosier to me than it has in decades. What we have is simply not appealing to me.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:20 | 2384639 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Ancona

Population peaks about 2050 with about 9 billion people. It then declines.

As for the Bee thing, I have read that non-commercial Bees are not dying off. The commercial Bees are the ones stressed and genetically bred to be larger.

But it is far scarier to claim ALL Bees are dying off instead of those who would be most at risk due to the environmet they exist in.

The problem which no one is discussing seriously yet is the aging of the world.


Mon, 04/30/2012 - 09:16 | 2384742 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

I would say the skewed age histogram will self correct in a Malthusian way soon enough. Unfortunately I will be on the receiving end of that compression when it happens.

As for the bees, I'm sure the ambient concentration of pesticides isn't helping the bee population. Once again humans prove that by putting all their eggs in one genetic basket we congratulate ourselves for being geniuses first, until it comes around and bites (stings?) us.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:04 | 2384606 UTICA CLUB XX PURE
UTICA CLUB XX PURE's picture

Too bad we can't enlarge the graphs.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:06 | 2384612 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

Wow - "widespread starvation and disease" - what a superb way to start a Monday morning. Why is it that this same doom and gloom shit has been around since Copernicus and Nostradamus? We all know that suns eventually supernova and extinguish all life within their respective solar systrems so why don' t we all just crawl into a bunker sucking our thumbs and sing Kumbaya together?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:09 | 2384613 Momauguin Joe
Momauguin Joe's picture

Bullish for space travel and colonization of other star systems.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:18 | 2384629 Seer
Seer's picture

"Why is it that this same doom and gloom shit has been around since Copernicus and Nostradamus?"

I don't know, perhaps it's because the logic is sound (that infinite growth on a finite planet isn't mathematically sound)?  What was the population back then?

I suppose that you could call gravity "doom and gloom" when the airplane runs out of fuel at 20,000 feet.  But for those with their feet on the ground gravity's a pretty good deal: otherwise, without gravity (as gloom and doom and all), we'd be flying off into outer-space.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:22 | 2384644 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Seer

No infinite growth per population.

Population peaks about 2050 - 2075 at around 9 billion then declines.

The real issue is the aging of the world populace.


Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:30 | 2385137 koperniuk666
koperniuk666's picture

It pains me to see Copernicus and Nostradamus mentioned in the same sentence.

 Copernicus was a great scientist whose heliocentric theory showed the Roman Catholic Church to be stupid lying c.nts. (And not for the first, or last, time.)

 Nostradamus was a mad atrologer and snake oil salesman who, if he were alive today, would be invited on to the Oprah Winfrey show or appointed Chairman of the Fed. He was also French, which says so much more.

As for the aeroplane analogy I suggest you google ‘ glide angle (ratio)’

You might check  ‘Malthus’, too, and note that the food hasn’t run out yet…

The standard of comment on ZH has deteriorated of late as ZH has become more popular. The uninformed would do well to read and learn rather than offer Jerry Springer level remarks.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:09 | 2384614 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

That is unless there is a major planned or unplanned catastrophe to knock back the viral population growth.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:17 | 2384628 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

That is unless there is a major planned or unplanned catastrophe to knock back the population. 

Fixed that for you.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:24 | 2384651 i-dog
i-dog's picture

That is unless there is a major planned viral catastrophe to knock back the population.

Fixed it further for you.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 09:27 | 2384765 AlaricBalth
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Zombie Wars!

“The only rule that ever made sense to me I learned from a history, not an economics, professor at Wharton. "Fear," he used to say, "fear is the most valuable commodity in the universe." That blew me away. "Turn on the TV," he'd say. "What are you seeing? People selling their products? No. People selling the fear of you having to live without their products." Fuckin' A, was he right. Fear of aging, fear of loneliness, fear of poverty, fear of failure. Fear is the most basic emotion we have. Fear is primal. Fear sells.”
Max Brooks

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:32 | 2384986 bahaar
bahaar's picture

Pandemic kills young and old alike.  Our real problem is not too many births but too few deaths (of old people).  We should support 'right to die' legislation.  Older adults can die without pain, with dignity.  Younger people can enjoy their share of resources.  By letting people live longer and longer, we not only consume disproportionate amount of resources but also deny our species the benefits of natural evolution. 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:06 | 2385076 i-dog
i-dog's picture

We don't need to kill anybody off. We just need to stop breeding like flies!

The world (and western) population has doubled just since I was a kid!! Nothing annoys me more than seeing some overstuffed buffalo leading her mini-herd of 6 kids through the mall.

 Natural attrrition would bring populations down to a sustainable level quite quickly if 'making babies' ceased to be subsidised.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:30 | 2384663 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

There will be massive civil wars/WW3/revolutions before 2030. Probably even famines due to Monsanto crops that are destroying the worlds ecosystems. So population wise they probably gonna be wrong. Especially if India/Pakistan or India/China war breaks out, which has big chances of happening. Even an Indian civil war is not impossible, same goes for a Chinese civil war.

Two things they got right... middle-classes are gonna shrink a whole lot in the ``developped`` world and oil will be less used...because there's a peak output not to mention it's gonna be unaffordable.

The water problem can be fixed with thorium nuclear power plants transforming salt water into clean water...

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:44 | 2384688 q99x2
q99x2's picture

One chart should include 99942 Apophis.

Which is the chance that the population will be a lot less in 2030 than it was 30,000 BC.


Mon, 04/30/2012 - 09:59 | 2384852 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

You must be kidding. Apophis is 230m wide. Even if it were to hit, no big deal.

The ONLY WAY it would create big chaos... is if it were to hit in a way that would create a big tsunami on the US east coast, resulting in a meltdown of many US nuclear reactors (there's like 20+ on the east coast in danger of a tsunami)

Other than that, Apophis is a joke.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 12:00 | 2385217 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

A Western Pacific strike would get pretty ugly as well.  That would knock out the Asian Tigers collectively.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:47 | 2384692 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

If you don't think your children will contribute to the achievement of the Kurzweil Singularity, by all means, don't have any.  But the formation of human capital should not be discussed as some blight to be controlled.  There are several posts above that take a very bleak and negative view of increasing life.  I shutter to think of the demographic issues the Chinese are setting up for themselves.  The scientists that might develop a cure for the major causes of aging may have already been sterilized or aborted into oblivion.

I was listenning to David Byrne's "Once in a Lifetime" last night.  Would this awesome piece of music exist if he hadn't?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 08:52 | 2384700 kralizec
kralizec's picture

This means war!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 09:19 | 2384751 proLiberty
proLiberty's picture

There is no more shortage of water than there is a shortage of hydrocarbons.   The oceans are still full.  The only shortage is the willingness to spend the money that is necessary to gain local access to water of suitable quality.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 09:30 | 2384777 financial apoca...
financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

Did no one else notice that the EU would not exist by 2030 so that 3rd position is vacant

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:03 | 2384880 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

these terrorist countries like the U.S and England,France etc are always worrying about security,

Stop terrorizing people and it might not need be so.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:28 | 2384975 Offtheradar
Offtheradar's picture

Way too many inhabitants on this planet.  Give me some elbow room, please. 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:51 | 2384998 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Drinking Water shortages:

Losers on the priority list for water: other species

http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/9485/dehydration.jpg

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:03 | 2385072 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

desalinization facilities on the coast will provide jobs and increase the supply of usable water.

lots of political credit and graft to go around.

why isnt it being done????

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:23 | 2385482 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

How many more nuke meltdowns or wars between now and 2030?  I'd say those are important statistics.  Two more Fukushimas and it gets real easy to predict 2050.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:55 | 2385657 mt paul
mt paul's picture

there is lotz of water

in fuel pool 4....

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