• Knave Dave
    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

Guest Post: America “Makes The Cut” – So What Happens Next?

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Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:05 | 1532714 wang (not verified)
Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:09 | 1532740 BaBaBouy
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World Riots already starting.


Print Bitchez Print ...


Tottenham riot: burned buildings may contain bodies, MP warns


Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:02 | 1532950 Dave Thomas
Dave Thomas's picture

Looks like there are some angry Jamacians!

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:20 | 1532792 midtowng
midtowng's picture

My guess is that we won't see a Black Monday, but only because the central banks will openly manipulate the markets.

Of course the problem from open manipulation (as opposed to behind-the-scenes) is that you can only do it once before the markets lose credibility.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:42 | 1532865 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Sorry, market manipulation has been pretty open these last three years and nobody cares.


Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:43 | 1532869 TwelfthVulture
TwelfthVulture's picture

Maybe because the only participants in the market are the ones doing the manipulating.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:45 | 1532878 UGrev
UGrev's picture

we've already passed that point...

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:44 | 1532872 EhKnowKneeMass
EhKnowKneeMass's picture

Wanna bet that it might be a green Monday?

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:58 | 1532929 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Can't tell until 4pm closing obviously, but S&P afterhours trading is currently 0.8% in the green, Dow 0.26%, and Nadaq -1.04.


It's either going to be a monumental day of red, or it is not. In light of QE expectations, I'd say it could be the latter. But almost everyone I know thinks it's going to be the worst day this year.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:07 | 1532966 EhKnowKneeMass
EhKnowKneeMass's picture

Thanks for opining, instead of just decrementing the counter. I will not try to offend your intelligence, but, obviously, the market has a propensity for proving most wrong; and it might just do that on Monday. The reason I say that is because of the NFP predictions here. Did you happen to read what most were predicting. It did not turn out to be true. Call it manipulation or the truth, but most were proven wrong and the number just surprised on the upside. And that might just happen on Monday. Every governmental agency, around the world, will downplay this event. The CBs will throw everything at the market to maintain control. Therefore, we might just close green. That's my supposition and I might well be wrong. But that's okay; I have been wrong before. Let's watch and see how the situation unfolds. And as you say, 'can't tell before 4 pm obviously'.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:16 | 1533000 TwelfthVulture
TwelfthVulture's picture

You're absolutely right.  It may well be a green day, however, in my opinion, the fact that the market sentiment has turned decidedly bearish, indices are flirting with major technical support levels coupled with the s&p news and the continuing euro disaster, my bets will prolly be cautiously on the short side.   Plus, my gut tells me it's a major bear market forming.   Like you, I may be right, I may be wrong, I too have been wrong plenty of times in the past. 

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:29 | 1533056 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Those are not the futures being looked at.  The futures will not reset until later today, after the Asian opening.  That is when you will get a better idea about tomorrow.

What has been quoted above is from Friday's close.  That is the rearview mirror.  In front of us is the semi coming in the wrong direction. 

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:45 | 1533120 TwelfthVulture
TwelfthVulture's picture

Really?  You don't say?  I did not know that futures cutoff on Friday eve at 4:30 p.m. until Sun eve.  He still could be right, it may well be a green day tomorrow. 

I forgot who said it, and I'm probably paraphrasing, "In every market transaction there's a buyer and a seller.  Both believe they are astute."

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 14:17 | 1533276 Kayman
Kayman's picture

 "In every market transaction there's a buyer and a seller.  Both believe they are astute."

Let's modernize that saying, "In every apparent market transaction, there is a Primary Dealer and the Fed, acting as buyer and seller, to mimic market activity.  Both are shills.

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 06:22 | 1533136 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Yep. 2am GMT is when I'm busiest. Whether wishful thinking or not, I'm told it will open green. We'll see. 


EDIT: Ha! Red, red, red. -2% down at least on S&P, DOW, and Nasdaq open

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:42 | 1533091 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

+1 There, you got your first increment. :)

We're heading for a green S&P opening, sure. How the day ends is beyond our control and we can only surmise on the likely actions of those who have the funds to manipulate the desires and nightmares of ordinary people. If it were not for the EU fracas, I would have said QE would come much later and we would see more controlled heavy losses this week. But the US downgrade compounds the EU contagion and that may be just one too many unknown variables to play fast and loose with the markets for those in power.

All of these emergency meetings this weekend can only be about stemming the flow of red. So, your/our supposition may be right. On the other hand..... if they decide to let it ride for a myriad of political reasons, tomorrow could be one of the worst days in history, after which all manner of nightmares can become reality: QE becomes the hero, and austerity measures the manna that nourishes the markets until the public is bled dry. Interesting week ahead.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:00 | 1532942 CrockettAlmanac.com
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Rainy Days and Mondays



Sun, 08/07/2011 - 14:02 | 1533212 caerus
Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:07 | 1532726 MicksBus
MicksBus's picture

Lads the craic = 90 (if you own PMs)

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:30 | 1532729 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Sorry, but QE3 as we know it to be will NOT happen. Its not that Ben doesnt want to: he just can't. If they do anything, it will be to hold the line, while all attempts are made to distract the citizenry with something else: whether we throw the the EU under the bus, up to war (either option hurts us too)


A little dated but read Buiter's Debt of Nations at page 64 about the USA. Watch for an increase in long Treasury rates to help determine how the world has really digested the latest S & P downgrade





Maybe the Old Regime and its Banks WILL HAVE TO EAT THEIR PEAS!! bwahhaha.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:00 | 1532945 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Sorry Cindy they can't hold the line as it is already sagging too deep.  They are left with nothing else but their Billy Barule, i.e. printing money.

Oh Billy, Billy, Billy...


Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:22 | 1533017 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Let me tell you something, when EVERYONE screams QE3, it ain't gonna happen. I didn't say that the Fed won't do Something else, just won't be QE3 as we know it, thats all.


Contrarians live longer, honey.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:51 | 1533135 Loose Caboose
Loose Caboose's picture

Cindy is right.  No QE3 as we know it.  QE3 would guarantee another downgrade - perhaps Moody's this time - and bring an abrupt end to the story. The EU could well be thrown under the bus to funnel the desperate money to the US$ yet again to save it another day.  But this thing is on the ropes and running out of options quickly.  I really do fear that TPTB may unleash holy hell in the form of a global/national disaster to distract and consolidate the masses - sort of like a shot to numb the pain while they remove every vital organ. 


Sun, 08/07/2011 - 17:41 | 1533985 New World Chaos
New World Chaos's picture

9/11 10-year anniversary coming up.  There have been increased troop movements around the country and plus we have the Super Congress, which would be perfect during martial law.  False flag coming?


Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:08 | 1532732 Doyle Hargraves
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Those who believe that the U.S. is not expendable in terms of the world economy, and believe that foreign nations will continue pouring money into our coffers because they “have to”, are kidding themselves.-SJGR Bitchez!

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:03 | 1532953 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Of course that is true.  Would a bar owner continue to extend credit to an alcoholic indefinitely just so they can "sell" them more alcohol?  Some day the check has to be paid.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:35 | 1533075 trav7777
trav7777's picture

they would if their entire bar was predicated upon being the sales end of a ponzi

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 14:31 | 1533337 snowball777
snowball777's picture

That would be a function of how many other living drunks were available in the general vicinity.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:08 | 1532734 falga
falga's picture

Let's fire all of congress for not doing the needed cut in the deficit! This crisis of incompetence is their's only....

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:08 | 1532735 CapedCrusader
CapedCrusader's picture

Ridiculous.  I predict bond yields are stable and the equity markets end the week up 4%.  Debt downgrade is meaningless.

I'll be easily stealing money from the sheeple this week.  


Sun, 08/07/2011 - 17:44 | 1533994 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

It wouldn't surprise me.

The markets are mentally fucking retarded. Gold down $80, DOW down 60, dollar up 4%

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:10 | 1532744 Captain Planet
Captain Planet's picture

Seeds, bitches.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:19 | 1532785 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Good farm land, bitchez, with water. And large-caliber rifles. And lots and lots of ammo.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:19 | 1532789 Doyle Hargraves
Doyle Hargraves's picture


Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:45 | 1532880 Zero Hedging
Zero Hedging's picture

30-06  :o)


Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:03 | 1532952 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Isn't life Garand?

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:06 | 1532961 Conor
Conor's picture

Lead of the 9mm, .45, .223, and 00 buck variety is the precious metal of the future.

Great to live down South. Plenty of farm land, plenty of water, and warm weather.

Blue-state urbanites will be in big trouble when society falls apart.


Sun, 08/07/2011 - 14:30 | 1533328 toady
toady's picture

I bought out two local Walmarts 30.06, .45, .22, double aught AND slug shotgun ammo.

So my lead is fully funded.

Now if I could only top up silver!

Mon, 08/08/2011 - 22:10 | 1540562 srelf
srelf's picture

You know, of course, that the ammo you now collect may be used against one of those now amiably conversing with you!


Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:14 | 1532762 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

Who could possibly have not known this day was coming?  Would it seem out of sorts for a grown man to curl into fetal position behind the toilet, while chain smoking cigarettes and crying for his Mommy, or is it too soon for that?

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:14 | 1532763 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

In all seriousness, the 'collapse' which is coming, and I do believe it is, will seriously destroy China the most.  In my thoughts, bring it on and get it over with.  the EU and US will rebuild quickly and, this time and hopefully, correctly.  China can go eat a bag of shit as far as I'm concerned.

Of course, there might be some more flaming pelican sightings off the coast of L.A. but this is unavoidable now.

I'd rather take the hit now and live a life of shit than let my kid end up some sort of serf to the Chinese.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:20 | 1532788 meatball
meatball's picture

Keep dreaming.

If everyone falls, who has more to lose? People in the west.

Chinese who lose their 50 cents an hour job making iphones will just go back to farming.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:24 | 1532803 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

You're just flat wrong and, I suspect, have never actually been to China.  That place will absolutely implode if we just simply stop buying their shit (including iphones, etc).

The EU and US will struggle, for sure.  But, you can't strip us of what we already have.  China will go back to the stone age.

This is overdue.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:47 | 1532884 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Agreed China would implode if we raised trade barriers.  It is only continued prosperity, or the hope of continued prosperity, thatt has led the public to buy into the Century of China pipe dream.  One billion single guys discovering they will never find a wife leads to all sorts of ethnic, religious, you name it violence.

They didn't toss out Google for nothing.  They are scared to death of the public.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:47 | 1532885 Zero Hedging
Zero Hedging's picture

If the US (when) does down, it will be a global event.  No one is immune....

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:50 | 1532896 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Well, that's going to happen.  Now place your chips on who you think emerges from the dust.  China is a fucking joke compared to the EU and US.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 12:56 | 1532925 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Zero Hedging

Agree, the only countries that would not be in serious trouble, are the undeveloped, and underdeveloped.

That's one reason for the Expat Brigades running up prop values in places NO one ere would wanted to have lived 10yrs ago.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:06 | 1532962 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Yes DZ the people that will suffer the least are those that are already used to suffering.  There is nowhere to go but up when you are already at bottom.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 13:12 | 1532986 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

That's great logic.  I never thought of it that way.  It's like the people with cancer are the least afraid of chemotherapy.  Or those that are the least educated about how bad their lives have the best percieved quality of life.

That's some deep zen buddah shit there.

Sun, 08/07/2011 - 14:46 | 1533403 toady
toady's picture

The problem is that China, and India, had a taste of ipads, indoor plumbing, and cars for the last decade pr two. Add that to their HUGE populations, and I don't see a good outcome.

Hell, China is having problems controlling their population now, with dissidents and riots already the norm. Now imagine post-collapse.

Sure, some outlying natives may never know the difference, but a billion screaming Chinamen, or Indians, in the cities will be hard to handle.

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