Guest Post: America “Makes The Cut” – So What Happens Next?

Tyler Durden's picture

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Dave Thomas's picture

Looks like there are some angry Jamacians!

midtowng's picture

My guess is that we won't see a Black Monday, but only because the central banks will openly manipulate the markets.

Of course the problem from open manipulation (as opposed to behind-the-scenes) is that you can only do it once before the markets lose credibility.

Smiddywesson's picture

Sorry, market manipulation has been pretty open these last three years and nobody cares.

 

TwelfthVulture's picture

Maybe because the only participants in the market are the ones doing the manipulating.

UGrev's picture

we've already passed that point...

EhKnowKneeMass's picture

Wanna bet that it might be a green Monday?

YHC-FTSE's picture

Can't tell until 4pm closing obviously, but S&P afterhours trading is currently 0.8% in the green, Dow 0.26%, and Nadaq -1.04.

 

It's either going to be a monumental day of red, or it is not. In light of QE expectations, I'd say it could be the latter. But almost everyone I know thinks it's going to be the worst day this year.

EhKnowKneeMass's picture

Thanks for opining, instead of just decrementing the counter. I will not try to offend your intelligence, but, obviously, the market has a propensity for proving most wrong; and it might just do that on Monday. The reason I say that is because of the NFP predictions here. Did you happen to read what most were predicting. It did not turn out to be true. Call it manipulation or the truth, but most were proven wrong and the number just surprised on the upside. And that might just happen on Monday. Every governmental agency, around the world, will downplay this event. The CBs will throw everything at the market to maintain control. Therefore, we might just close green. That's my supposition and I might well be wrong. But that's okay; I have been wrong before. Let's watch and see how the situation unfolds. And as you say, 'can't tell before 4 pm obviously'.

TwelfthVulture's picture

You're absolutely right.  It may well be a green day, however, in my opinion, the fact that the market sentiment has turned decidedly bearish, indices are flirting with major technical support levels coupled with the s&p news and the continuing euro disaster, my bets will prolly be cautiously on the short side.   Plus, my gut tells me it's a major bear market forming.   Like you, I may be right, I may be wrong, I too have been wrong plenty of times in the past. 

WestVillageIdiot's picture

Those are not the futures being looked at.  The futures will not reset until later today, after the Asian opening.  That is when you will get a better idea about tomorrow.

What has been quoted above is from Friday's close.  That is the rearview mirror.  In front of us is the semi coming in the wrong direction. 

TwelfthVulture's picture

Really?  You don't say?  I did not know that futures cutoff on Friday eve at 4:30 p.m. until Sun eve.  He still could be right, it may well be a green day tomorrow. 

I forgot who said it, and I'm probably paraphrasing, "In every market transaction there's a buyer and a seller.  Both believe they are astute."

Kayman's picture

 "In every market transaction there's a buyer and a seller.  Both believe they are astute."

Let's modernize that saying, "In every apparent market transaction, there is a Primary Dealer and the Fed, acting as buyer and seller, to mimic market activity.  Both are shills.

YHC-FTSE's picture

Yep. 2am GMT is when I'm busiest. Whether wishful thinking or not, I'm told it will open green. We'll see. 

 

EDIT: Ha! Red, red, red. -2% down at least on S&P, DOW, and Nasdaq open

YHC-FTSE's picture

+1 There, you got your first increment. :)

We're heading for a green S&P opening, sure. How the day ends is beyond our control and we can only surmise on the likely actions of those who have the funds to manipulate the desires and nightmares of ordinary people. If it were not for the EU fracas, I would have said QE would come much later and we would see more controlled heavy losses this week. But the US downgrade compounds the EU contagion and that may be just one too many unknown variables to play fast and loose with the markets for those in power.

All of these emergency meetings this weekend can only be about stemming the flow of red. So, your/our supposition may be right. On the other hand..... if they decide to let it ride for a myriad of political reasons, tomorrow could be one of the worst days in history, after which all manner of nightmares can become reality: QE becomes the hero, and austerity measures the manna that nourishes the markets until the public is bled dry. Interesting week ahead.

MicksBus's picture

Lads the craic = 90 (if you own PMs)

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Sorry, but QE3 as we know it to be will NOT happen. Its not that Ben doesnt want to: he just can't. If they do anything, it will be to hold the line, while all attempts are made to distract the citizenry with something else: whether we throw the the EU under the bus, up to war (either option hurts us too)

 

A little dated but read Buiter's Debt of Nations at page 64 about the USA. Watch for an increase in long Treasury rates to help determine how the world has really digested the latest S & P downgrade

 

http://www.nber.org/~wbuiter/DoN.pdf

 

 

Maybe the Old Regime and its Banks WILL HAVE TO EAT THEIR PEAS!! bwahhaha.

Temporalist's picture

Sorry Cindy they can't hold the line as it is already sagging too deep.  They are left with nothing else but their Billy Barule, i.e. printing money.

Oh Billy, Billy, Billy...

http://s238.photobucket.com/albums/ff41/paperhogan/?action=view&current=...

Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

Let me tell you something, when EVERYONE screams QE3, it ain't gonna happen. I didn't say that the Fed won't do Something else, just won't be QE3 as we know it, thats all.

 

Contrarians live longer, honey.

Loose Caboose's picture

Cindy is right.  No QE3 as we know it.  QE3 would guarantee another downgrade - perhaps Moody's this time - and bring an abrupt end to the story. The EU could well be thrown under the bus to funnel the desperate money to the US$ yet again to save it another day.  But this thing is on the ropes and running out of options quickly.  I really do fear that TPTB may unleash holy hell in the form of a global/national disaster to distract and consolidate the masses - sort of like a shot to numb the pain while they remove every vital organ. 

Disobey.

New World Chaos's picture

9/11 10-year anniversary coming up.  There have been increased troop movements around the country and plus we have the Super Congress, which would be perfect during martial law.  False flag coming?

http://theintelhub.com/2011/08/02/multiple-military-train-convoys-filmed-in-oregon-as-domestic-troop-movements-continue-to-skyrocket-amid-super-congress-tyranny/

Doyle Hargraves's picture

Those who believe that the U.S. is not expendable in terms of the world economy, and believe that foreign nations will continue pouring money into our coffers because they “have to”, are kidding themselves.-SJGR Bitchez!

Temporalist's picture

Of course that is true.  Would a bar owner continue to extend credit to an alcoholic indefinitely just so they can "sell" them more alcohol?  Some day the check has to be paid.

trav7777's picture

they would if their entire bar was predicated upon being the sales end of a ponzi

snowball777's picture

That would be a function of how many other living drunks were available in the general vicinity.

falga's picture

Let's fire all of congress for not doing the needed cut in the deficit! This crisis of incompetence is their's only....

CapedCrusader's picture

Ridiculous.  I predict bond yields are stable and the equity markets end the week up 4%.  Debt downgrade is meaningless.

I'll be easily stealing money from the sheeple this week.  

 

Spitzer's picture

It wouldn't surprise me.

The markets are mentally fucking retarded. Gold down $80, DOW down 60, dollar up 4%

narapoiddyslexia's picture

Good farm land, bitchez, with water. And large-caliber rifles. And lots and lots of ammo.

Conor's picture

Lead of the 9mm, .45, .223, and 00 buck variety is the precious metal of the future.

Great to live down South. Plenty of farm land, plenty of water, and warm weather.

Blue-state urbanites will be in big trouble when society falls apart.

 

toady's picture

I bought out two local Walmarts 30.06, .45, .22, double aught AND slug shotgun ammo.

So my lead is fully funded.

Now if I could only top up silver!

srelf's picture

You know, of course, that the ammo you now collect may be used against one of those now amiably conversing with you!

 

A Lunatic's picture

Who could possibly have not known this day was coming?  Would it seem out of sorts for a grown man to curl into fetal position behind the toilet, while chain smoking cigarettes and crying for his Mommy, or is it too soon for that?

Boilermaker's picture

In all seriousness, the 'collapse' which is coming, and I do believe it is, will seriously destroy China the most.  In my thoughts, bring it on and get it over with.  the EU and US will rebuild quickly and, this time and hopefully, correctly.  China can go eat a bag of shit as far as I'm concerned.

Of course, there might be some more flaming pelican sightings off the coast of L.A. but this is unavoidable now.

I'd rather take the hit now and live a life of shit than let my kid end up some sort of serf to the Chinese.

meatball's picture

Keep dreaming.

If everyone falls, who has more to lose? People in the west.

Chinese who lose their 50 cents an hour job making iphones will just go back to farming.

Boilermaker's picture

You're just flat wrong and, I suspect, have never actually been to China.  That place will absolutely implode if we just simply stop buying their shit (including iphones, etc).

The EU and US will struggle, for sure.  But, you can't strip us of what we already have.  China will go back to the stone age.

This is overdue.

Smiddywesson's picture

Agreed China would implode if we raised trade barriers.  It is only continued prosperity, or the hope of continued prosperity, thatt has led the public to buy into the Century of China pipe dream.  One billion single guys discovering they will never find a wife leads to all sorts of ethnic, religious, you name it violence.

They didn't toss out Google for nothing.  They are scared to death of the public.

Zero Hedging's picture

If the US (when) does down, it will be a global event.  No one is immune....

Boilermaker's picture

Well, that's going to happen.  Now place your chips on who you think emerges from the dust.  China is a fucking joke compared to the EU and US.

DosZap's picture

Zero Hedging

Agree, the only countries that would not be in serious trouble, are the undeveloped, and underdeveloped.

That's one reason for the Expat Brigades running up prop values in places NO one ere would wanted to have lived 10yrs ago.

Temporalist's picture

Yes DZ the people that will suffer the least are those that are already used to suffering.  There is nowhere to go but up when you are already at bottom.

Boilermaker's picture

That's great logic.  I never thought of it that way.  It's like the people with cancer are the least afraid of chemotherapy.  Or those that are the least educated about how bad their lives have the best percieved quality of life.

That's some deep zen buddah shit there.

toady's picture

The problem is that China, and India, had a taste of ipads, indoor plumbing, and cars for the last decade pr two. Add that to their HUGE populations, and I don't see a good outcome.

Hell, China is having problems controlling their population now, with dissidents and riots already the norm. Now imagine post-collapse.

Sure, some outlying natives may never know the difference, but a billion screaming Chinamen, or Indians, in the cities will be hard to handle.