Guest Post: Is Apple Really Worth More Than The Sum Of Microsoft, Dell, Google, Facebook And HP?

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by John Aziz from Azizonomics

Is Apple Really Worth More Than The Sum Of Microsoft, Dell, Google, Facebook And HP?

Because that’s what the market cap suggests:

But not the book value:

Nor revenue:

And nor earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation:

The data suggests that relative to other tech companies AAPL is significantly overvalued. And going forward there is no guarantee that AAPL can justify today’s value by keeping up its dominance of the sector. Tech is an extremely fickle and fast-changing sector where one year’s turkey can be next year’s prize pig. And AAPL’s product lineup is still dominated by products developed under the charge of Steve Jobs — it will take a while longer to fully assess whether or not AAPL can succeed at the same magnitude over the entire product cycle from conception to sales without his leadership.

But I doubt that anything like a sober look at the data will stop the Apple bulls. Because this time is different, right?

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YesWeKahn's picture

Of cause, in 10 years, everything will be apple. IWill IFuck IBernanke.

ACP's picture

...don't forget the iEBT!

sunaJ's picture

It's funny: this article.  What is the point of arguing whether Apple is "overvalued" or not?  The markets are completely rigged, hedge funds cannot find a footing in markets that are so unrecognizably manipulated.  Apple has the solid reputation in uncertain times and that buys at a huge premium when the herd is in motion and this herd was once considered "smart money".  It is pointless to theorize on whether Apple is good for it - of course they are not.  They are being affected by the greatest of fundamental market forces: fear & uncertainty

Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

John -- Apple now peddles its wares on such home shopping "iOutlets" as QVC and ShopNBC ( right before the cubic zirconium earrings hour, and directly following the Orange Glow presentation ). One cannot recall seeing Apple products offerered on such low-end cable shopping channel outlets whilst Steve Jobs was firmly in executive contol.

The bloom is off this apple-red rose. Not for very much longer shall Apple don the market cap crown. For all things there is a season...winter fast approaches, in Cupertino.

veyron's picture

When you say they peddle on QVC, is the price actually lower?

Tippoo Sultan's picture

AAPL tends not to discount, regardless of retailer.

Sabibaby's picture

Fear and uncertainty should have a discount regardless of the retailer!

francis_sawyer's picture

 Maxwell Smart: "Is Apple Really Worth More Than The Sum Of Microsoft, Dell, Google, Facebook And HP?"

KAOS agent: "I find that hard to believe"

Max: "What about Oracle, Gateway, Duck Duck Go, MySpace, & Acer?"

KAOS Agent: "I still find that hard to believe"

Max: "How about a Commodore 64, some Atari joysticks & my rolodex?"

i-dog's picture

Reposted from here 2722362:

 

Any company whose success was built on the vision and attitudes of one man (Steve Jobs - outstanding 12 point summary by Kawasaki here: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20117575-37/what-i-learned-from-steve-jobs/) who's been replaced by a committee of technocrats ("a camel is a horse designed by a committee") can't sustain a share price this high.

Apple is/was Steve Jobs. RIP Steve Jobs. Imminent RIP Apple.

 

PS. Irrespective of that, "investments" in AAPL will die on the same day that the currency system is switched to a global electronic currency. Coming soon.

 

A Nanny Moose's picture

Jobs didn't build that- The O'Bamabot.

 

Tippoo Sultan's picture

+1 i-dog.

Steve Jobs was a "key man" if ever the business world knew one. Steve, as you indicate, WAS Apple Computer. I do not believe the company will long reign [ market cap ] supreme without him.

notbot's picture

I hate pointing out the obvious, but when I click through to your charts, you are using TTM EBITDA.  Investors buy forward earnings. So your charts are selectively skewed down for AAPL and up for DELL/HPQ which are shrinking.

chunkylover42's picture

Book Value is also heavily influenced by longevity of profitability and margins (tough to top the margins of a software company that's been around since the mid 1980s).

CrazyCooter's picture

Yup. I argued this with a coworker back in '07. If I traded the idea, I would have lost my shirt. My coworker would have been right, and have huge profits to show for it.

God made PMs for times like this. The system is fucked. I mean, there is no truth to anything anymore, unless nature is backing the system. Food, energy, land, physical security; buy some instead of apple. Well, unless those are apples for the root cellar of course.

Regards,

Cooter

DeadFred's picture

The fact that the hedgies are all-in on Apple is the biggest single danger for the company. The HFT manipulations are targeted at the hedge funds (IMO) to drive them out of the game. Only 11% are doing better than just buying SPY shares? It's not random. 89% of them are not total idiots. They are dead center in the cross hairs and if AAPL is their biggest common position I wouldn't want to ride herd with them on it. I like Apple's overpriced products but wouldn't want them in my porfolio, unless I'd bought them at $200 when I thought they were seriously overpriced. Oh well.

mjcOH1's picture

> iGrey Goo?

iYlent Green for the iEntitled.

YuropeanImbecille's picture

short answer: YES , long answer: yes it sure is. [With reservations for cook being a beancounter rather than a visionary.].

fonzannoon's picture

Is it me or does it feel like we are a bunch of people standing in quicksand? In between the panic stricken fear of seeing us sink ever so slowly we stop and look around and say "hey how about that Apple"?

theduke2421's picture

not sure about "we" ... pretty sure the longs dont feel like they are in quick sand.

CH1's picture

And if they can keep the iBubble going till Oct. 1, they can show great results for their portfolios through Q3.

What else could possibly matter? 

/sarc

CunnyFunt's picture

Do Max & Stacey get those i-things for free?

surf0766's picture

Nothing is free but socialist think everything should be.

 

I thin apple products are overrated. Had bad experiences in the past 3 months with 2 different products from them.  I personally do not use but family members do.

 

Peace !

Ms. Erable's picture

Never underestimate the zombie-like fanboi stupidity of iTards.

A Nanny Moose's picture

In reality, adoption rate of these gadets in the business world is spreading like wildfire. Faster, naturally, than the ability of business to secure them

Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Put your money where your mouth is and buy some puts then. Ain't nothing to it but to do it.

CheapBastard's picture
Facebook director Thiel sold 20 million shares after lockup

 

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Facebook Inc director Peter Thiel sold roughly $400 million worth of shares in the Internet social networking company last week, cashing out most of his stake, according to a regulatory filing.

Thiel sold his shares on Thursday and Friday at average prices ranging between $19.27 and $20.69 per share after the end of the first lockup, which barred early investors and insiders from selling shares following the initial public offering.

 

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20120820&i...

 

Is it true he switched an bought that stuff you can't eat?

ACP's picture

Jesus F. Christ. I wish I could lose half my net worth while stuck in a garbage company and still have $400 million.

FEDbuster's picture

Thiel could dig that out of his couch cushions.

BTW, does anyone know if Bill Gates still has his APPL shares from when he bailed Apple's sorry ass out?

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Uhh lemme see, Peter Thiel, his investment was $500,000, he sold more than 17M shares at the IPO of $38 for more than $646M, now just made $400M.  So he's made about $1.46 Billion and still has more shares.  You give him so little credit.

draghithebearslayer's picture

646m+400m = 1.046b, not 1.46b. you overcredit him by 400m with a flick of your finger. well done.

 

MalthusWasRight's picture

What is half a bill when it comes to the best manipulator of smart kids who are as of yet unable to legally purchase alcohol?  (Especially when CNBC legitimizes his predatory behavior with a show where kids vie to drop out of Ivy League schools to further enrich him.  I'm surprised we haven't yet seen Thiel take a seat on MSNBC...)

theduke2421's picture

do you really make trades after you read this? 

e-man's picture

Any Chernobyl systems technician will tell you, having one company support a large part of the economy is a recipe for success.  What could go wrong?

TooBearish's picture

What a fucktard- how much have u lost picking a top in  the world's leading consumer tech innovator?

dark pools of soros's picture

this isn't Reggie.. he covered to this guy's short

Spastica Rex's picture

"leading consumer fashion accessory innovator"

After FIFY, you are 100% correct.

marco1324's picture

A bumper day for Apple but anyone going short after picking top of the tree will be laughing tomorrow afternoon. YUM YUM!

pd45's picture

Why have the Tylers turn the spot light on AAPL today. Leave it alone, all my 401(k) funds have significant AAPL component.

 

malikai's picture

That's your problem.

Sabibaby's picture

The Tylers have been wrong about AAPL for awhile now but they'll be right eventually!

notbot's picture

Yes agree. Eventually.

Daily Bail's picture

I've been long apple since the Fall of 2008 when it fell under $100 for about a month and I started accumulating.  I haven't sold any shares yet.  But I'm starting to get an itchy trigger finger with this run-up.  And for the record, I do not own a single apple product.

Go ahead and junk my ass for being honest.  I'll take the profits over pride, most days.

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Wow, we have an actual investor on this board, didn't know there were any.  Congratulations on such a great investment.  And as I pointed out to Aziz down below, he needs desperately to do an earnings comparison and the light will come on for him.

I am a Man I am Forty's picture

If your timing is wrong by years and you are off a couple hundred percent then in my book you are wrong.  Stubborn buggers they are.