Guest Post: Is Apple Really Worth More Than The Sum Of Microsoft, Dell, Google, Facebook And HP?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by John Aziz from Azizonomics

Is Apple Really Worth More Than The Sum Of Microsoft, Dell, Google, Facebook And HP?

Because that’s what the market cap suggests:

But not the book value:

Nor revenue:

And nor earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation:

The data suggests that relative to other tech companies AAPL is significantly overvalued. And going forward there is no guarantee that AAPL can justify today’s value by keeping up its dominance of the sector. Tech is an extremely fickle and fast-changing sector where one year’s turkey can be next year’s prize pig. And AAPL’s product lineup is still dominated by products developed under the charge of Steve Jobs — it will take a while longer to fully assess whether or not AAPL can succeed at the same magnitude over the entire product cycle from conception to sales without his leadership.

But I doubt that anything like a sober look at the data will stop the Apple bulls. Because this time is different, right?

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Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:44 | 2722106 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Of cause, in 10 years, everything will be apple. IWill IFuck IBernanke.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:49 | 2722122 ACP
ACP's picture

...don't forget the iEBT!

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:03 | 2722152 malikai
malikai's picture

iGrey Goo?

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:32 | 2722172 sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

It's funny: this article.  What is the point of arguing whether Apple is "overvalued" or not?  The markets are completely rigged, hedge funds cannot find a footing in markets that are so unrecognizably manipulated.  Apple has the solid reputation in uncertain times and that buys at a huge premium when the herd is in motion and this herd was once considered "smart money".  It is pointless to theorize on whether Apple is good for it - of course they are not.  They are being affected by the greatest of fundamental market forces: fear & uncertainty

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:53 | 2722246 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

John -- Apple now peddles its wares on such home shopping "iOutlets" as QVC and ShopNBC ( right before the cubic zirconium earrings hour, and directly following the Orange Glow presentation ). One cannot recall seeing Apple products offerered on such low-end cable shopping channel outlets whilst Steve Jobs was firmly in executive contol.

The bloom is off this apple-red rose. Not for very much longer shall Apple don the market cap crown. For all things there is a season...winter fast approaches, in Cupertino.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:55 | 2722263 veyron
veyron's picture

When you say they peddle on QVC, is the price actually lower?

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 21:02 | 2722273 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

AAPL tends not to discount, regardless of retailer.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 21:19 | 2722311 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Fear and uncertainty should have a discount regardless of the retailer!

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 21:31 | 2722325 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

 Maxwell Smart: "Is Apple Really Worth More Than The Sum Of Microsoft, Dell, Google, Facebook And HP?"

KAOS agent: "I find that hard to believe"

Max: "What about Oracle, Gateway, Duck Duck Go, MySpace, & Acer?"

KAOS Agent: "I still find that hard to believe"

Max: "How about a Commodore 64, some Atari joysticks & my rolodex?"

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 22:18 | 2722441 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Reposted from here 2722362:

 

Any company whose success was built on the vision and attitudes of one man (Steve Jobs - outstanding 12 point summary by Kawasaki here: http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-20117575-37/what-i-learned-from-steve-jobs/) who's been replaced by a committee of technocrats ("a camel is a horse designed by a committee") can't sustain a share price this high.

Apple is/was Steve Jobs. RIP Steve Jobs. Imminent RIP Apple.

 

PS. Irrespective of that, "investments" in AAPL will die on the same day that the currency system is switched to a global electronic currency. Coming soon.

 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:12 | 2722604 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Jobs didn't build that- The O'Bamabot.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 09:21 | 2723354 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

+1 i-dog.

Steve Jobs was a "key man" if ever the business world knew one. Steve, as you indicate, WAS Apple Computer. I do not believe the company will long reign [ market cap ] supreme without him.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 21:25 | 2722317 notbot
notbot's picture

I hate pointing out the obvious, but when I click through to your charts, you are using TTM EBITDA.  Investors buy forward earnings. So your charts are selectively skewed down for AAPL and up for DELL/HPQ which are shrinking.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 21:47 | 2722361 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

Book Value is also heavily influenced by longevity of profitability and margins (tough to top the margins of a software company that's been around since the mid 1980s).

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 22:48 | 2722533 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Yup. I argued this with a coworker back in '07. If I traded the idea, I would have lost my shirt. My coworker would have been right, and have huge profits to show for it.

God made PMs for times like this. The system is fucked. I mean, there is no truth to anything anymore, unless nature is backing the system. Food, energy, land, physical security; buy some instead of apple. Well, unless those are apples for the root cellar of course.

Regards,

Cooter

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:02 | 2722577 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The fact that the hedgies are all-in on Apple is the biggest single danger for the company. The HFT manipulations are targeted at the hedge funds (IMO) to drive them out of the game. Only 11% are doing better than just buying SPY shares? It's not random. 89% of them are not total idiots. They are dead center in the cross hairs and if AAPL is their biggest common position I wouldn't want to ride herd with them on it. I like Apple's overpriced products but wouldn't want them in my porfolio, unless I'd bought them at $200 when I thought they were seriously overpriced. Oh well.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 21:56 | 2722376 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

> iGrey Goo?

iYlent Green for the iEntitled.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 07:03 | 2723039 YuropeanImbecille
YuropeanImbecille's picture

short answer: YES , long answer: yes it sure is. [With reservations for cook being a beancounter rather than a visionary.].

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 10:17 | 2722323 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:46 | 2722110 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Is it me or does it feel like we are a bunch of people standing in quicksand? In between the panic stricken fear of seeing us sink ever so slowly we stop and look around and say "hey how about that Apple"?

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:52 | 2722256 theduke2421
theduke2421's picture

not sure about "we" ... pretty sure the longs dont feel like they are in quick sand.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:54 | 2722259 CH1
CH1's picture

And if they can keep the iBubble going till Oct. 1, they can show great results for their portfolios through Q3.

What else could possibly matter? 

/sarc

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:46 | 2722114 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

Do Max & Stacey get those i-things for free?

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:48 | 2722120 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Nothing is free but socialist think everything should be.

 

I thin apple products are overrated. Had bad experiences in the past 3 months with 2 different products from them.  I personally do not use but family members do.

 

Peace !

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:47 | 2722119 brewing
brewing's picture

iBullshit...

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:50 | 2722125 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Never underestimate the zombie-like fanboi stupidity of iTards.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:15 | 2722610 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

In reality, adoption rate of these gadets in the business world is spreading like wildfire. Faster, naturally, than the ability of business to secure them

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:50 | 2722127 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Put your money where your mouth is and buy some puts then. Ain't nothing to it but to do it.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:24 | 2722203 max2205
max2205's picture

Who said long Natgas short AAPL ??!!!

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:54 | 2722131 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture
Facebook director Thiel sold 20 million shares after lockup

 

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Facebook Inc director Peter Thiel sold roughly $400 million worth of shares in the Internet social networking company last week, cashing out most of his stake, according to a regulatory filing.

Thiel sold his shares on Thursday and Friday at average prices ranging between $19.27 and $20.69 per share after the end of the first lockup, which barred early investors and insiders from selling shares following the initial public offering.

 

http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20120820&i...

 

Is it true he switched an bought that stuff you can't eat?

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:06 | 2722159 ACP
ACP's picture

Jesus F. Christ. I wish I could lose half my net worth while stuck in a garbage company and still have $400 million.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:14 | 2722181 marco1324
marco1324's picture

Pocket fluff

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:52 | 2722244 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

..

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 01:06 | 2722253 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Thiel could dig that out of his couch cushions.

BTW, does anyone know if Bill Gates still has his APPL shares from when he bailed Apple's sorry ass out?

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:58 | 2722727 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Uhh lemme see, Peter Thiel, his investment was $500,000, he sold more than 17M shares at the IPO of $38 for more than $646M, now just made $400M.  So he's made about $1.46 Billion and still has more shares.  You give him so little credit.

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 00:40 | 2722808 draghithebearslayer
draghithebearslayer's picture

646m+400m = 1.046b, not 1.46b. you overcredit him by 400m with a flick of your finger. well done.

 

Tue, 08/21/2012 - 04:08 | 2722961 MalthusWasRight
MalthusWasRight's picture

What is half a bill when it comes to the best manipulator of smart kids who are as of yet unable to legally purchase alcohol?  (Especially when CNBC legitimizes his predatory behavior with a show where kids vie to drop out of Ivy League schools to further enrich him.  I'm surprised we haven't yet seen Thiel take a seat on MSNBC...)

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:54 | 2722261 theduke2421
theduke2421's picture

do you really make trades after you read this? 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:54 | 2722132 e-man
e-man's picture

Any Chernobyl systems technician will tell you, having one company support a large part of the economy is a recipe for success.  What could go wrong?

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:55 | 2722134 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

What a fucktard- how much have u lost picking a top in  the world's leading consumer tech innovator?

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:42 | 2722233 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

this isn't Reggie.. he covered to this guy's short

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 22:29 | 2722478 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

"leading consumer fashion accessory innovator"

After FIFY, you are 100% correct.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:55 | 2722135 marco1324
marco1324's picture

A bumper day for Apple but anyone going short after picking top of the tree will be laughing tomorrow afternoon. YUM YUM!

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 19:56 | 2722139 pd45
pd45's picture

Why have the Tylers turn the spot light on AAPL today. Leave it alone, all my 401(k) funds have significant AAPL component.

 

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 20:11 | 2722176 malikai
malikai's picture

That's your problem.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 21:24 | 2722320 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

The Tylers have been wrong about AAPL for awhile now but they'll be right eventually!

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 21:27 | 2722322 notbot
notbot's picture

Yes agree. Eventually.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 22:34 | 2722493 Daily Bail
Daily Bail's picture

I've been long apple since the Fall of 2008 when it fell under $100 for about a month and I started accumulating.  I haven't sold any shares yet.  But I'm starting to get an itchy trigger finger with this run-up.  And for the record, I do not own a single apple product.

Go ahead and junk my ass for being honest.  I'll take the profits over pride, most days.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:18 | 2722614 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Wow, we have an actual investor on this board, didn't know there were any.  Congratulations on such a great investment.  And as I pointed out to Aziz down below, he needs desperately to do an earnings comparison and the light will come on for him.

Mon, 08/20/2012 - 23:21 | 2722626 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

If your timing is wrong by years and you are off a couple hundred percent then in my book you are wrong.  Stubborn buggers they are.

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