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Guest Post: Are We Headed For A Second Recession?

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Lance Roberts of Streettalk Live

Are We Headed For A Second Recession?


Is a second recession in so short of a time in the offing? It certainly seems that way. The hope for a continued recovery has grown dim as of late as many of the economic indexes are moving towards contractionary territory.  As we posted recently in "EOC Index Shows Economic Weakness" there are several concerns pressing the US economy and, in the words of David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, “one small shock” could send us into a second recession.  With the recent release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index our proprietary economic index is just one small step away from crossing the 35 mark which has always been a pre-cursor to recession.

We have discussed many times recently that with the unemployment rate remaining high, housing prices slipping into a secondary decline, consumer and business spending slowing, while gas and food prices remain high eating up more than 20% of consumers wages and salaries.  Add on top of these factors the likelihood of a Greek debt default, a slowdown in the Eurozone, a weaker dollar and Washington locked in debate over the debt ceiling - well, the list of risks far outweigh the positives.  However, that doesn't seem to deter Wall Street economists and main stream media which seem to all be wearing an extremely thick pair of rose colored glasses these days.   However, it doesn't take an economist to figure out that any one of these factors could send us tumbling into a second recession.

Most of the mainstream media and economists claim this is simply a soft patch of the recovery, David Rosenberg refuted this claim in an interview with Bloomberg Television saying, “[it’s] not normal to have two soft patches this close together nearly two years after the recession ends. It doesn’t happen. This will be two separate recessions.” He also stated in the interview that he believes that there is a 99% chance of another U.S. recession and the only reason he didn't put it at 100% was that he needed a "margin of error".  He noted in his most recent issue of “Breakfast with Dave” that real disposable income, household employment, real business sales, and manufacturing production all peaked in March. This type of behavior was not characteristic of the soft patch last year and this is the first sign of a looming recession. More importantly, it is important to remember that the recovery to date in the economy has not been an organic one.  With more than $5 Trillion injected into the system through various Federal interventions and stimulus it is disappointing that we only increased GDP by a little more than $900 Billion in the last two years.   That is expensive growth any way you price it and is unsustainable without further injections.  

However, not to be daunted by facts and figures, a recent survey of 18 leading experts by CNNMoney shows that they believe there is about a 15% chance of a new recession.  Of course, this is pretty much the same group of individuals that told everyone that the economic slow down in early 2008 was just a "soft patch" as well.  

The risks, however, are real. According to Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group, “the fragile US recovery means the economy is much more vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and a rise in fuel prices. Since the instability in the Middle East is far from over, there are real risks for the U. S. and international economy.”   Dr. Gary Shilling, author of "The Age Of Deleveraging" also notes the threat of another price drop in housing on the economy. There is currently an excess inventory of 2 to 2.5 million homes with only 500,000 homes being absorbed out of that inventory per year. This means that it will take at least 4 to 5 years to clear that inventory if rates stay the same. If home prices drop another 20% in order to clear the market, it will force price declines on existing homes that will move the number of underwater mortgages from the current level of one in five to more than one in three. Shilling argues that the ripple effect will drive the economy into a second recession.

Robert Samuelson, in an article for the Washington Post, compares the current state of the economy to the climate of the economy during the “depression within a depression” from 1937-1938. During this recession, the unemployment rate rose to 20%, the economy’s output fell 18%, and industrial production dropped 32%. The climate leading to this recession is very similar to the economy today. Then as now, commodity prices were rising rapidly and inflation fears were growing. Federal budget was criticized as too large and the president was perceived as anti-business. Similar complaints exist today. However, there are some significant differences between then and now. Policy reversal in 1937-1938 was much more drastic than anything being considered today. The federal deficit fell from 5.5% to .1% of GDP between 1936 and 1938. Today’s budget deficits are much larger as a share of GDP and prospective reductions are much smaller. Still, the parallels are unsettling.

gdp-real-072611Finally, statistically speaking, the data suggest the definite possibility of a second recession. Mark Thoma recently analyzed a graph of real GDP growth in an article for The graph shows a downward growth heading to below 2% GDP growth. This 2% line has been indicative of a recession in the past. Almost every drop below this line has led to a recession measuring back to 1947. The Fed, however, is hoping for a turnaround in the third quarter that could prevent us from hitting this line. Thoma believes the government needs to start taking action in order for this to happen. “Policymakers need to realize that unemployment, not the deficit, is the immediate crisis to be addressed and take action. Unfortunately for the unemployed, that's unlikely to happen,” he stated in the article.

I agree with Thoma that until some initiatives are taken we will hit that 2% mark very soon and head into our second recession.

Of course, all of this is barring around round of Quantitative Easing by the Fed.   However, even that may not be enough to offset the real problems facing the U.S. economy.


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Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:34 | 1494271 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Never left the first.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:36 | 1494280 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

thats what I was thinking, can you have a recession within a depression?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:44 | 1494320 ratso
ratso's picture

The second recession will be a certainty if Boehner follows through with the"Destroy Obama Agenda' of the rIght wing of the Republican Party.  

They would rather destroy Obama than do what is right for America.  Such hatred can never address the problems we face rationally and logically.


Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:47 | 1494329 redpill
redpill's picture

Uh, if the "Destroy Obama Agenda" and "hatred" is the political euphemism for living within your means, then I guess you can count me on board the hatewagon.


Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:53 | 1494358 ratso
ratso's picture

If you are not one of the millionaires/billionaires who pays too few taxes then, my friend, you have drunk the Kool-Aid.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:57 | 1494379 V in PA
V in PA's picture

Wow! You're troll abilities are not high enough to comment on ZH. You need to level up and drop the obvious DNC talking points.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:06 | 1494426 ratso
ratso's picture

No talking points coming from me- just the facts.  

If they look like talking points to you, you better check to see how much Kool-Aid you've had today.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:23 | 1494541 redpill
redpill's picture

What facts?

The only fact that matters is that we have more debt than we'll ever be able to pay off. If/when you finally wake up from your daydream full of infantile rhetoric maybe you'll realize how utterly irrelevant your slobbering loyalty to a political party really is.

But probably not.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:31 | 1494581 ratso
ratso's picture

Since I am not a member of a political party, I will consider that you have have no idea what my motives are or who I am.

The US had a higher Debt to GDP ration following WWII and we somehow turned in a stellar performance in addition to funding the Marshall Plan.

The US has plenty of life left in it as well as the abiliity to rationally address the debt problem once cooler heads prevail.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:43 | 1494641 redpill
redpill's picture

You obviously don't have a clue about the structural state of the US economy today if you think it is remotely comparable to conditions following World War II.  Instead of logging onto this site and telling people they are "Kool Aid drinkers" you need to read more about how we wound up in this economic situation to begin with.  If there is anyone who is deluding themselves with sugary beverages, it is you.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:08 | 1494745 ratso
ratso's picture

Didn't they ever teach you in your Philosophy Class that 'ad hominum' arguments are invalid and reflect more badly on the maker of the argument than the recipient.  They reflect a lack of content and skill in the author.  It that fits you wear it in good health.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:21 | 1494780 redpill
redpill's picture

Actually one of my degrees is in Philosophy. The term is "ad hominem," by the way, and my statement was no such attack. I don't know whether you're a piece of shit or an angel, nor do I care, I wasn't commenting on your character, rather I was merely pointing out your ignorance of the structural nature of the US economy based upon your claims that current conditions are analogous to those following World War II. That observation is topical and relevant, as you couldn't be any more wrong. Although it's difficult not to dwell on the irony of someone crying "ad hominem" after they have waltzed into the thread decrying "kool aid drinkers" with whom you disagree. You're dismissed, class convenes tomorrow at the same time.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:26 | 1494815 HellFish
HellFish's picture



Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:44 | 1494896 ratso
ratso's picture

"Kool-Aid drinkers" is not an ad hominem argument - thanks for the spelling correction. It refers to an entire mind set that accepts without scrutiny the right wing agenda whether it is helpful to them individually or not.  It is a mind set that bases its conclusions on preconceived ideological concepts and then reclassifies them as some form of "structural" analysis.  

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:57 | 1494945 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

It is ad hominem since you are debating the motives and 'mind set' of the person you are arguing with, thus attacking the messenger.

As to your claims about the economy right after WWII, we had the only 100% intact industrial base in the world and could afford the expenditures. We also were growing markets that would buy our products with these programs.

Today, the added government spending is on top of already huge tax burdens far higher than in 1950, and much of it goes to dead-end welfare (corporate and private) and waste/fraud.

There is no valid comparison.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:36 | 1495110 redpill
redpill's picture

Not to mention in those days our economic growth came from actual production.

Today our "growth" comes from consumption.  And that sounds like a contradiction because it is.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:52 | 1495165 ratso
ratso's picture

Well, we now know that you didn't major in ecomonics.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 14:20 | 1495269 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

You say that like it's a bad thing.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 14:00 | 1495195 ratso
ratso's picture

You get an F in your logic class.  Try reading the book again.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 15:15 | 1495501 Western
Western's picture

Your mom got an F last night.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:57 | 1494705 Nikola Tesla
Nikola Tesla's picture

Oh yeah, you've got that huge manufacturing industry, oh wait. That's in China now where the wages are cheap.

But you've got loads of oil and don't have to import any, oh wait, you peaked in 1970 and use 25% of the worlds oil.


As soon as the US $ gets removed from oil your game is over.


Those who are, or at least believe, that they or their country are at a great height have far further to fall than those of us humbled by how fucked up the situation really is. Come down to Earth and grow some crops.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:05 | 1494736 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Agreed.  Grow some crops.

But now I see I can give you the green.  So there you go.  Nice improvrement.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:06 | 1494983 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

But you've got loads of oil and don't have to import any, oh wait, you peaked in 1970 and use 25% of the worlds oil.

We also produce $17 trillion in wealth out of $61 trillion globally, which means we produce 28% of the worlds wealth.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:14 | 1494766 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

Comparing today's economy with the post-WWII economy is unrealistic, and here are four reasons why:

1) The end of cheap oil

2) Global labor arbitrage

3) Demographics

4) China


Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:33 | 1494853 Bagbalm
Bagbalm's picture

Not to mention the manufacturing base in Europe was destroyed.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:42 | 1494880 bigmikeO
bigmikeO's picture

Hey ratso, I have an idea - let's tax the millionaires and billionaires at 100% tax rate (take everything they have and throw their asses in jail) - sound good?

Oops, wait, that would only pay for 1/3 of the deficit spending for 1 year under Obummer. Hmm. 

Hey I know, why don't you write a personal check to the treasury and ask them to apply it to the debt rather than trying to steal other people's money? Or move to Cuba, I'm sure they could use another "open mind" mini-dictator.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:21 | 1495046 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

I like your thinking, your halfway there. The key is after confiscating or taxing  high net individuals, the government has to declare bankruptcy. Clear all debts off their books and have a tremendous surplus thanks to the low debt ratio and the new high tax structure.

Then its only a matter of time to see how long it takes for the corporatacry to loot the treasury once again leaving us with nothing but angst.

The debt level of most citizens is untenable but pales in comparison to the state and federal debts.

Obviously that which cannot be sustained won't be sustained. We should be planning how to collapse it and save what we can instead of prolonging the agony by pretending it can somehow be repaid if only we could once again have infinite growth of all things except debt for everyone forever.

the problem with living in a fairy tale, is all fairy tales end.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:51 | 1494350 Hmm...
Hmm...'s picture

Forget the fake Right/Left arguments.  There is no Right.  There is no Left.  Both parties are controlled by the same interests:  the moneyed elite.  This of course has worsened significantly with rulings such as "money = free speech". 

Both sides are trying their best to sell out the country to the highest bidder.  Make no mistakes.  Boehner vs Obama is about as real as a WWE wrestling match.  Do you REALLY think the Undertaker hates Stone Cold Steve Austin?  (sorry, it's been 2 decades since I watched the WWF, now WWE so I don't know the feuds).

Likewise, the Kabuki theater is all haggling about how to impose austerity on the masses and even better making the masses BEG for the austerity... in the end we will see SS cuts, Medicare cuts.  We will likely not see reduction in meaningfuly pork spending.  We most certainly will not see reduction in Military spending, Ag/oil subsidies, and other Corporate welfare.

The only difference is will we be sold to Big Oil (right) or Big Finance (Left)? 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:29 | 1495078 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

As long as the American people continue to allow themselves to be deluded by the false axiom of Republicans and Democrats being two separate and distinctive entities, those who wield the true power and utilize the ancient yet effective strategy of "divide et impera" will continue to reap the spoils of this war they are waging on the middle and poorer social classes. By creating divisions among the people and promoting discord, the modern aristocracy hinders the formation of cohesive affiliations which could confront and challenge their existing, self-serving structure.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:33 | 1495079 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

 Hit it twice. Sorry

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:52 | 1494352 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Baaa! Baaaa! 'Republicrats and Demicans'! Baaaa! Enjoy the puppet show sheeple!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 16:56 | 1495911 gabeh73
gabeh73's picture

Thanks for explaining the situation to ratso. I know that many in this world are still asleep, but at least if you come to zero hedge you should have the god damned respect to not come in cheerleading for whatever stupid left-right theatrics the mainstream media is putting on for the public at the moment.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:52 | 1494354 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Don't you have a 24% APR JPM credit line to max out on iPads and Hope and Change buttons?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:54 | 1494364 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

You're a fucking idiot.  We've never gotten out of the first depression.   Government spending doesnt count.

Obama can solve this problem overnight by submitting a budget cutting 40% spending from everywhere. 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:28 | 1494572 Seer
Seer's picture

But... it's not just PUBLIC debt!  Yeah, clear out public debt and we still have everyone unemployed and in massive debt.  And if you think that being out of PUBLIC debt will magically result in business booming and rehiring I think that you're smoking something.

Don't confuse canibalism with a Happy Meal (tm).

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:02 | 1494711 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I believe you are missing a key component of why that public debt was put into place.  The public debt has now been used to keep the creditors of the private debt in tact (Primary dealers primarily).  Back in 2008 Bush and Obama both pushed forward an initiative to keep the insolvent creditors solvent, so that the insolvent debtors (mortgages and credit card) could continue to remain insolvent. 

Considering the recent revelation from the audit of the Federal Reserve will bring into view an additional $16 TRILLION (, on top of the $5 TRILLION mentioned in this article, that was purely used to keep the banks solvent and the taxpayer in continued debt consumer and mortgage debt.  At the time of the 2008 crisis the American public held around $12-14 TRILLION in mortgage and credit card debt.  $21 TRILLION of taxpayer funds have been spent to keep the $12-14 TRILLION worth of debt on top of that same tax-paying public. 

The facts are simple.  $21 TRILLION (That we know of so far) was used to prop up the Primary Dealer banks, and their subsidiaries overseas.  This burden was shifted onto the public debt. The public remained in their own mortgage and credit card debt, payable to these same primary dealer fucks, and is now being evicted from their homes.

Had the right thing been done - liquidation of the bad debt - we could have recovered by now and business would indeed be booming.  Instead we have a kleptocracy that insists on diverting productive capital, as well as ledger created capital, to unproductive banks and wall street cronies. All of the while the public harnesses the losses incurred by those banks on top of being in continual indentured debt servitude. 

We were sold out and those that aren't paying attention are the problem now. 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:08 | 1494746 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Good Doctor.  I wish I could give you another green arrow. 

those that aren't paying attention are the problem now.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:43 | 1494893 Seer
Seer's picture

"I believe you are missing a key component of why that public debt was put into place.  The public debt has now been used to keep the creditors of the private debt in tact"

You may have been answering to the sub-thread's original, but... no, I have NEVER mistaken how this precipitated; yes, I was well aware from the very get-go as to what was happening, that it was a shift of debt from the private to public sector (and that the private sector is STILL fucked up).

But, this is all about counting Monopoly (tm) money.  It's all a side show to the great unwind that was ALWAYS to occur as a result of basing our entire economic structure on growth while constrained by a finite planet.  OOPS!  This is why the theives, who have always been among us, have become more open and brazen, for they too have felt the pressures to come out from behind the curtain to steal from us...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 14:39 | 1495331 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Bonuses all around Gentlemen, bonuses all around.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:22 | 1494489 Popo
Popo's picture

34 junks and counting for ratso.

'Looks like the majority here are for responsible finances, an end to government largess,  and an end to public-sector salaries that outweigh private sector salaries by 30-40%.    

Ratso, on the other hand favors the public descending further into debt serfdom with policies that destroy the dollar.


Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:14 | 1495015 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

"We must keep the people busy with political antagonisms. We'll therefore speed up the question of reform for the democratic party,? and protection for the republican party.

By divinding the electorate this way, we'll be able to have them spend their energies at struggling amongst themselves on questions that have no importance to us."

United States Bankers Magazine, 1892.

"We must go forward, cautiously, and consolodate each acquire position, because already the 'inferior social stratum of society (us)' is giving unceasing signs of agitation.

Let us make use of the courts...When, throught he laws intervention, the common people shall have lost their homes, they will be more easy to control and govern, they shall not be able to resist the strong hand of government acting in accordance with the control of? the leaders of finance." US Bankers Magazine, 1892.


Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:29 | 1495019 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 The economy will continue to deteriorate regardless which PR team the plutocrats are publicly represented by,  whether they be represented by the red team, or the blue team, or a "compromise" of the two matters not.

The "economy"  is being ruined by lack of investment in proper physical infrastructure (water, sewage, transportation, agriculture, etc.) and malinvestment in warmaking, policing, imprisonment, environmental destruction, corporate and financial largesse. The inequities of wealth correspond to the inequities of political power.

The cost of providing so-called "entitlements" (like food, medical care, and shelter) is more than offset by the profits from providing poor nutrition, expensive medicine, and housing bailouts.

Nothing meaningful will change so long as the plutocrat-run corporatocracy  remains in power.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:52 | 1494353 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture


Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:12 | 1494471 koaj
koaj's picture

FDR had one in 1936

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 14:23 | 1495279 downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

We wouldn't even have to go there if we just would quit calling a spade a jackrabbit...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:51 | 1494347 Norsky
Norsky's picture

Very first thing that came to mind! 


Must have missed the exit sign with the first one.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:52 | 1494356 redpill
redpill's picture

Give the nice lady a prize for she is correct.  A return to "growth" fueled by the Federal Reserve goosing the stock market with devalued currency was never, and can never be a recovery, rather it is only a temporary distortion of the data that when finally exhausted returns right back to where it was.

The reality is we need to let this economy reorganize instead of trying everything we can think of to preserve the status quo.  The more we try to preserve the false illusion the worse it will be in the long run.  It's rather like Michael Jackson and his plastic surgery.  He never should have started on the road to begin with, and by the end he was making it worse with every additional operation until his nose finally fell off.

Lady Liberty is looking like Joan Rivers these days.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 16:24 | 1495793 Don Keot
Don Keot's picture

Redpill, you know they will continue until they can't.  None of them have the balls to admit it.  Did you catch Boehner's comment to Obama's speech.  He said his plan will "delay the default".  Was this a slip of the tongue?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 16:24 | 1495795 Don Keot
Don Keot's picture

Redpill, you know they will continue until they can't.  None of them have the balls to admit it.  Did you catch Boehner's comment to Obama's speech.  He said his plan will "delay the default".  Was this a slip of the tongue?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 16:24 | 1495797 Don Keot
Don Keot's picture

Redpill, you know they will continue until they can't.  None of them have the balls to admit it.  Did you catch Boehner's comment to Obama's speech.  He said his plan will "delay the default".  Was this a slip of the tongue?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:36 | 1496794 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

But WHO's plan was he referring to?  My Guess:  Any one, or more, of them!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:54 | 1494362 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...get those rosiescenario eye shades on.....the green shoots look super green with swans all but numbers cannot be seen....a must have for economists.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:24 | 1494550 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Yes, unless you believe the phoney statistics put out by the govt.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 14:05 | 1495215 Ra-Marduk
Ra-Marduk's picture

Tyler, I have no idea why you would even post this non-sense, especially when you know we are balls deep in the real Great Depression already. If it were not for the rampant market manipulation (in which the sheep have yet to conclude) and the outright lies, we would already be to the point where Obama flips the switch and turns off the net to keep the truth hidden. Why don't you just hammer home what the reality really is? No time to mess around now - the word must be pushed forward. Grow some balls!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:37 | 1494284 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Virtually every economist on Wall St. is talking up a recession.

Some say depression.

Nobody is considering the possibility that things can actually get better.

The economy has been tanked for 3 years now, things don't stay bad forever.

Besides, with the 10-yr. yield under 3% for so long, you cannot underestimate the power of such easy money for such a long period of time.

Yes, there is a lag effect, but when it kicks in, it is going to be a doozy.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:45 | 1494322 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Great points dude.  And so far you've received a -11 for making them.  So it goes.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:55 | 1494369 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Great points'? No they werent. This is Robo's act where he pretends they havent used $27 trillion imaginary bucks to paper over a depression, and says it 'could happen' that 400K weekly job losses suddenly turn around and magically start getting better, some magical imaginary way in a land where pink unicorns shit piles of delicious Skittles.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:05 | 1494419 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Robo is a idot. How is it going to get better when most of the good jobs have gone overseas? Are those jobs going to magically reappear, because the 30yr is at some % . Minus the invention of something equal to fire or the prepetual motion generator, things will not improve, and we'd probably offshore it anyway...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:43 | 1494653 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

I should have put Robo up for adoption...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:21 | 1494782 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

'the power of cheap money' has worked miracles in Japan. /sarc off

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:39 | 1494872 andybev01
andybev01's picture

You should have spit Robo out while you had the chance.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:09 | 1494995 fuu
fuu's picture

He's such a little treasure you really should have buried him.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 16:29 | 1495813 Don Keot
Don Keot's picture

So true, I cannot imagine a scenario where a recovery can take place while one comsumes more than they produce.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:45 | 1494323 kito
kito's picture

i gave you a thumbs up just because i feel bad for you.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:46 | 1494327 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

We've heard that same thing for three years. I think you fundamentally don't understand what the problem is. There is far too much debt that have not been cleared from the system. There will be no lasting recovery until that happens.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:47 | 1494332 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The only way things get better long term is if someone besides the Fed buys our massive debt. This Ponzi can't last forever and is the only reason yeilds are low. The illusion is that everything is getting better and yet unemployment continues higher. Debt rapidly moving higher. Jobs continue to move overseas. A collapse of confidence is not that far away. Those that want to bet against Fed action are always at risk of being wipsawed for shorter and shorter peiods of effectiveness. I agree it will be a doozy. Just disagree in direction.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:47 | 1494336 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

The economy can stay in a recession/depression as long as there are no jobs for people and the public and private sector accumulates more and more debt that everyone knows will never be paid off per the banker's rulebook. The smart money realizes the endgame is approaching and is moving capital out of the country. This won't be the first or the last fiat collapse. Might as well embrace and plan for the future.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:15 | 1494492 Raynja
Raynja's picture

This collapse is looking more and more like a mean reversion where all the serfs around the world end up with the same standard of living.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:44 | 1496805 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"...there are few recorded instances in history of government -- any government -- actually getting out of debt." --

"The Creature From Jekyll Island, a Second Look at the Federal System",
5th Ed., G. Edward Griffin, ISBN:  978-0-912986-45-6, pg. 29, 1st paragraph.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:48 | 1494340 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

you cannot underestimate the power of such easy money for such a long period of time.

No underestimating here.  Complete devaluation of the dollar, unabated spending of unpayable credit, inflated stock prices, a 30% housing price decline, 45 million food stamp recipients, $4 gasoline, and 20% real unemployment.

What are you hoping for?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:28 | 1494567 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

re: inflated stock prices...

actually for the last 12 years when the SPX first hit the 1335 price, the monthly SPX has traded above the level we're at now about 32 months, compared to about 110 months below the 1335 level. Even the stock market is showing the state of our economy for the last decade+.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:46 | 1496807 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The stock market(s) in Zimbabwe also grew at a phenomenal rate during their hyper-inflation episode.  "Careful with that axe, Eugene." -- Pink Floyd

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:48 | 1494341 Cycle
Cycle's picture

I agree with that - but it's like agreeing with the Theory of Gravity. Things will get alternately better and worse, just like when Joseph figured out crop cycles 4000 years ago. What I'd hazard to add is a guess on the timing.

According to this analysis, things will get better - but only beginning around 2015, subject to change. Meanwhile, the business cycle, which is a composite of cycles of varying periods all heading down, is headed down.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:49 | 1494344 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey MomoFader hows your lil darlin NFLX doin?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:53 | 1494359 oogs66
oogs66's picture

someday we will find out that robo is really rosenberg

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:57 | 1494376 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"...things don't stay bad forever..."


Robo.....pleeeez look at Japan...things staid bad and then recently got extremely worse.....

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:48 | 1494911 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

your argument proves the point...

Things don't stay bad forever, they either get better or worse.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:48 | 1496809 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

All is "transitory"; in other wordz:  "All Things Must Pass"

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:12 | 1494474 Seer
Seer's picture

It's pretty hard for anyone to NOT notice that we're STILL in a recession, therefore it's not hard to understand why "every economist on Wall Street" (huh?) talks about a recession (besides, the more they do the more FREE MONEY they get from their pals in D.C.).

At the start of the Great Depression the Harvard Economic Society was waxing on and on about how all was fine and that things would kick back into full swing.  Not too long after this they shut down their printing press (newsletter).

This isn't some movie, this isn't some fantasy.  We can't click our heels together (smoke hopium etc.) and expect things to "get better" (ramp unsustainability back up?).

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:03 | 1494728 markar
markar's picture

The US economy is done. Stick a fork in it. your idiocy know no bounds

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 17:02 | 1495931 Don Keot
Don Keot's picture

There seems to be a whole lot of extend and pretend going on out there.  I'm seeing alot of temporary plates on new cars and the malls are packed and wait lines at the restaurants.  My neighbor, a half mile away, is a fairly wealthy guy, says he is going to wait a couple of years, til things turn around to retire. 

 I sure hope we're right, I've been waiting 35 years for this.  I still think this time it really is different.  I have to admit that the preparation that we have made, no debt, food, PMs and country living has made for a good nights sleep.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 14:08 | 1495226 Ra-Marduk
Ra-Marduk's picture

I have said it before and saying it again - you are a baffoon. Thank you, and have a nice day.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 14:49 | 1495364 Kayman
Kayman's picture

with the 10-yr. yield under 3% for so long, you cannot underestimate the power of such easy money for such a long period of time.

Yeah- don't underestimate the distortions caused by encouraging hot money to bounce from one short term rabbit to another.

ZIRP is only available to the Cartel.  No one else.

Show me investment in plant and equipment and you might have some credence.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:37 | 1494286 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

The doctored statistics fooled everyone into thinking the USA had actually come out of recession.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:07 | 1494987 r101958
r101958's picture

ummmhh.......almost everyone.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:39 | 1494293 i-dog
i-dog's picture

"second recession ...... continued recovery"

What planet did you receive this from, Tyler?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:47 | 1494335 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

A variety of opinions and thoughts allows you to form your own ideas and ultimately act on them.  Or, for others, to just keep commenting on the internet thinking that is going to change something.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:57 | 1494942 KennyG09
KennyG09's picture

Funny, I see your comments a lot ;)

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 18:52 | 1496206 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

I'm coming back in a bit late.  Good joke and good point, dude.

I started interacting with the machine to see how real this was.  It is quite real.  Yet in the end, I choose trading stocks on the internet.  Good luck y'all.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 23:22 | 1496774 KennyG09
KennyG09's picture

I'm in a bit later and I'm not judging. I tried trading stocks. Riding a desk bean counting should be a good answer on how that ended.

Good luck.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:41 | 1494305 Syrin
Syrin's picture

I can't believe I am reading this article here of all places.


Come on, we ALL know we never left the recession unless you want to argue we transitioned into a Depression, but there was never a recovery.


It was the recoveryless recovery.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:48 | 1494337 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont know who arrowed down your comment, maybe Krugman looking thru ZH posts.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:41 | 1494306 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Guest Post: Are We Headed For A Second Recession?

Does the Pope wear a funny looking hat?




Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:15 | 1494768 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Hey Sac - I can not "green arrow" this guy's comment.  The arrow is not clickable.  What's up?  Thanks.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:53 | 1494935 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Only when golfing. He also wears his Tartan Plaid robes which really impairs his long shot.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:45 | 1494308 Debt Rolling
Debt Rolling's picture

With oil at this level, I don't see how we could not be in a recession. 

As long as WTI exceeds 90, we are in dangerous territory.

With WTI above 100 for more than two months, it's an assured recession. History always proved it. 

But given the things at stake (the survival of an empire), the government will be very reluctant to admit a negative number. We should observe the evolution of tax revenues and non-governmental indexes to confirm it. 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:22 | 1494536 Seer
Seer's picture

As you note, oil at $90 isn't a good thing, esp given that our entire infrastructure is based on operating on $20/bbl oil.  The pressures have been mounting since US oil production peaked in 1970; since this time the US has been spending more of its wealth on energy (instead of gaining wealth through the export of energy, as it had been doing prior to 1970).  Couple this with the aim of weaking the USD in order to boost exports, spells disaster...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:42 | 1494309 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

Lone Wolf-“What a time you chose to be born, Daigoro”

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:42 | 1494313 V in PA
V in PA's picture

He also stated in the interview that he believes that there is a 99% chance of another U.S. recession and the only reason he didn't put it at 100% was that he needed a "margin of error"


DOW below 10k sometime between Oct 11 and Mar 12.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:43 | 1494318 Seer
Seer's picture

Slinky down the staircase.  Any "uptick" was the slinky hitting the top of the arc just before the next leg down.

Step back from staring at the dots on the graph so that you can see the entire picture, the real trend.  Down and to the right...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:05 | 1494422 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture D.C. alternative universe, slinkies go up the the image....well put....even I could grasp it...


...rather than analyzing the Brownian motion within the balloon, we should step back and notice the hole in it???

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:46 | 1494326 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Headed for another recession'? Never got out of the first collapse depression. Thats just reality. Remove the $16 trillion in 'loans' from the FED, and the 0% bank rate, and what would we have? Total collapse. Theyre only allowing the ILLUSION to go on a bit longer for whatever reason, probably an event date. Like the next 9-11 for example. Something wicked this way comes, there is no question about that.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:26 | 1494559 Incubus
Incubus's picture

I heard they're getting Michael Bay onboard for the next 9/11. 



Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:19 | 1495042 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

Theyre only allowing the ILLUSION to go on a bit longer for whatever reason, probably an event date. Like the next 9-11 for example. Something wicked this way comes, there is no question about that.

Plausible candidates?

Isreal strike on Iran or Failure to pass rasing of the Federal debt ceiling would be two.

Anyoen got some more plausible scenarios?



Tue, 07/26/2011 - 14:59 | 1495424 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Boener and Obumster move to New York and tie the knot. That's got to be worth 200 points.  You pick the direction.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:48 | 1494339 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

As expected, Commercial Real Estate REITS just went positive and are crusiing to all time (yes, all time) highs.  Commercial propoerty values skyrocket in deflationary recessions...right?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:50 | 1494346 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

" Wall Street economists and main stream media which seem to all be wearing an extremely thick pair of rose colored glasses..." me, they help....

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:51 | 1494349 pods
pods's picture

I love it how in today's world, merely repeating the lie long enoug makes it true.

Sure, the gov can add to GDP to boost it, if it has reserves. When it deficit spends, it is just pulling forward future demand.  We have been doing that at ~10% of GDP for years now, with no end in sight.

Almost laughable to hear people talk about a double dip.  Sure, coppertops will believe that junk,

but damn, don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining!


Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:04 | 1494414 V in PA
V in PA's picture

today's world?!? Repeating a lie until it is believed is how the whole thing works. Otherwise, Governments wouldn't need to exist.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:52 | 1494355 ian807
ian807's picture

Are we headed for a 2nd recession? Does the pope defecate in heavily forested areas?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:55 | 1494938 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Only when golfing and then he wipes himself with a fluffy bunny.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:53 | 1494360 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

There is absolutely nothing bearish about this chart.

Why are there so many gloom and doomers here that cannot observe a stock chart with positive price action?

Once this consolidation phase ends, we could start another leg upward.

Oh, by the way SPG just hit another new high.  Safe havens are in shopping centers today..

Junk away you guys......




Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:57 | 1494374 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey can you comment about your darlin stock NFLX please like you did in every post over the last few months?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:09 | 1494446 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Junking is soooo last recession..  the new normal is red arrow down

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 14:05 | 1495216 takinthehighway
takinthehighway's picture

Seem to be fewer and fewer "safe havens", Robo...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:54 | 1494363 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Soft patch.....No problem....

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:54 | 1494368 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

When "they" get to define what makes a recession then "they" concoct the numbers that make that determination then ergo only "they" know whether that will happen or not. The same thing applies to inflation.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:58 | 1494381 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Are we headed for a 2nd Recession?

Nope! We're headed for a depression the likes of which few of us living have ever known!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:05 | 1494425 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture


As Gerald Celente coins it, "The Greatest Depression"

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:43 | 1494894 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Yep. We're just waiting for people to lose it now. Maybe only when diaper/formula subsidies run out. Wonder if that will be before or after another major false flag. Their #1 rule is to avoid mass panic. Can they maintain control this time around?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:01 | 1494392 sbenard
sbenard's picture

She's baaa-aaack!

Pollyanna, that is!

Pollyanna Party on!

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:01 | 1494394 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Does this really matter for the average schmoe?  Not really, call it what you want many still have mortgages, food, gas and, on top of everything else, shit like college to consider.  Personally, I have given up the idea of getting SS to the extent that my statements tell me I will get.  Up to this point in my life I have earned nearly 2.5 million dollars and I'm worried about retirement.  This truly sucks shit.

Historically, when do people wake up?  Is it going to take a post Neville Chamberlain type shitstorm to motivate the average person?

Have a nice day.


Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:41 | 1494637 Seer
Seer's picture

SS, retirement?  Ha ha!  Sucker!

Your clue should have been that the overwhelming majority of the world's population doesn't have "retirement" in their vocabulary and that this is the real historical norm.

I figured this out over ten years ago and pretty much stopped collecting up stashes of wealth for future confiscation.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:01 | 1494396 fishface
fishface's picture

With more than $5 Trillion injected into the system through various Federal interventions and stimulus it is disappointing that we only increased GDP by a little more than $900 Billion in the last two years.   That is expensive growth any way you price it and is unsustainable without further injections. 


money spent, end of 'recovery'

where's the QE3 ?



Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:08 | 1494438 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

If you go long now you might get in before we hit dow 13000.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:09 | 1494443 bharat
bharat's picture

We all know what the symptoms are. Can someone start the debate on how the disease can be cured. Let me offer my views. I run a business. As the manager of the business, I know one critical fact: I can't sell something that is too expensive relative to what the marketplace offers. I am constantly looking to reduce costs and improve profitability.

The major structural problem with the U.S. is that it has become a high fixed cost economy. I say this as someone that worked in the U.S. for 10 years and left to run a business in India. The major contributors to the fixed costs are (this is irrelevant as to what the business is, you could be running a service business or manufacturing business, the costs below will be roughly the same):

a) Ultra high medical costs in terms of medical insurance (high costs for doctors, ridiculous costs of malpractice insurance which is really a wealth transfer mechanism to attorneys etc., high intermediation costs in terms of HMO fees etc)

b) Insurance costs (high litigation overheads, again a wealth transfer mechanism that also prevents wealth creation)

c) High property taxes to support gold plated local government expenditure

d) Unstable financial industry (over-financialized society to support reserve currency activities, however, this supports the mercantilist asian economies). This results in businesses spending too much effort in managing currency fluctuation efforts, e.g. Dow Corning stocking up on Silver.

e) High taxation on small and medium businesses due to completely out of control federal expenditure, which is already recognized.

f) Unstable structure of society (yes, you will disagree with me, but I believe unless America returns to a more conservative family oriented society, the emotional impact that family instability has spills over tangibly on to personal productivity. This means changing the actual behaviour right from childhood)

Unless the above structural issues are resolved, it doesn't matter which way the dollar goes, businesses will not invest in America. Even if the federal reserve depreciates the dollar through monetization, the structural issues above will not entice businesses to create additional jobs in the U.S. And the job market is the primary driver of the housing market. It is not the other way around. You create sustainable jobs, the housing market will automatically improve, along with every other indicator of the economy.

Any way, the purpose of my comment is to ask people to put pen to paper, or finger to keyboard, and look at the issues critically, with out being driven by news media from hour to hour. And the U.S. needs solutions, NOW. One more thing, don't get divided on the Republicans vs. democrats issue. The political class all around the world is exactly the same, irrespective of what they call themselves.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:58 | 1494712 Seer
Seer's picture

You want "solutions?"  Sorry, solutions are "permanent," and there's nothing that's permanent.  It's all about ADJUSTING, just as you did when you went to India.  "Solutions," rather, "corrections," can only come about when one identifies the sources of the problems, not the symptoms.

The REAL underying "problem" is that we are running out of easy-to-extract physical resources.  All the pressures that you're feeling is because of this: where were you during the boom days? were you sounding your "warnings?" then? were you here in the US profiting?

If you're not in a business providing for fundamentals* then there's ZERO chance that you're going to survive, let alone "grow." * There should be no reason to expand on this, since anyone who doesn't get it that it's Food, Shelter and Water should be taken out by evolution.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:14 | 1495013 r101958
r101958's picture

If I could click the green arrow 100 times, I would. This just about covers the problems with doing business here and is also the reason that we will eventually see wages coming down drastically. Not something I want, just the cold hard facts.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 15:14 | 1495497 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Can someone start the debate on how the disease can be cured

Our politicians and criminal bankers will engorg themselves even if it costs the country itself.

Rome wasn't built in a day, but it didn't die in one day either.  This is going to be a slow agonizing death.

Cure ? You have to admit you have a disease before you can talk about a cure.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:13 | 1494480 ww2vet
ww2vet's picture

all the last three years have done is lenghthen the devide-depends on which section of the airplane you sitting-no one can predict the tipping point but there IS such a point-no amount of dancing with the stars, nfl etc will prevent the overthtow once it starts


Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:16 | 1494495 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...QE is in its final stages for launch last coating of astroglide still to be applied and then the dildo like probe will be trundled down to the pad.....

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:17 | 1494502 Fate
Fate's picture

Lance, your own rose-colored glasses are only a hair less thick than the ones you mentioned in your article.

Arguing that we are in a 'soft patch' is like saying that, at one point, the Titanic was only half-sunk.  Such optimism, muted though it may be, is both deadly and destructive.

"This sucker's goin' down." 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:28 | 1494507 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

i can only assume that there is the need to sell print. the conclusions expressed here belabor the obvious to the point of stupefaction. even the most disinterested observer could not fail to see the handwriting on the wall years ago.

 However, even that may not be enough to offset the real problems facing the U.S. economy.

 purely sophomoric drivel and insulting to even my own limited intelligence. the following pithy tidbit from jsmineset expresses the state of affairs much more succinctly

As cities across the United States struggle to keep their finances afloat, Central Falls, Rhode Island, is taking a novel approach to try to avoid bankruptcy.

The city is asking police and firefighter retirees to give up 50% of their pension.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:19 | 1494516 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"Robert Samuelson, in an article for the Washington Post, compares the current state of the economy to the climate of the economy during the “depression within a depression” from 1937-1938."


....that sounds about right

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:35 | 1494601 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

When these economic pseudo mavens talk about recovery,  it is obvious that they are referring to the recovery of Wall Street and corporate America.  Main street America has never recovered, and as a matter of fact the financial health of most people in the USA continues to deteriorate. The wages of American workers have actually receded since the official end of the recession. Corporations are making money, yet they are not spending it on workers in the US.  Manufacturers, banks, exporters, energy firms and financial services, have contributed virtually nothing to overall American job growth. The only true job growth has come from the retail sector, healthcare and government services. Each of these sectors are lower paying and require a less skilled workforce. The higher paying jobs are going to India, China, Brazil and other emerging market countries.

25 Million people are unemployed or underemployed. 45 million people are on food stamps. If one were to study history, a major symptom of a country in economic decline is the financial polarization of its people.


Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:43 | 1494655 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

Anyone who believes there ever was a recovery isn't paying attention. This is simply a continuation of the recession beginning in '08, even if the doctored data suggest otherwise.

Trillions in spending do not a recovery make, they only mask the true situation.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:54 | 1494694 docj
docj's picture





Embrace "The Suck", everyone. This candle is lit.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:09 | 1494748 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Is this guy for real?.


We have never left the Depression.

We are simply awaiting part 2.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:14 | 1494764 Burgess Shale
Burgess Shale's picture

Is it time for heads on pikes?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:26 | 1494814 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Altough I would personally like to see Goldman sachs taxed out of existence, as well as all the other bloodsucking leeches on Wall Street, I would much prefer that we had a strong SEC, DOJ and state Attorney generals and prosecuts sue and prosecute them out of existence.

That being said, if Boehner can destroy the Obama agenda  -or even Obama -more power to him. If we would cut spending to where it should be (about 70% less) we wouldn't need to tax the rich  -we could reduce the taxes of the rest of us.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 12:53 | 1494933 Seer
Seer's picture

Why the need to pay someone to put poor business practices out of existence?  I'd prefer to allow evolution ("free trade") to do it without all the extra overhead: besides, that extra overhead is made up of the very same people/mindset that did all of this, all that will end up is some sort of reorging, allowing the false meme to continue on...

No, let people wake up to the real power of eliminating all this banking crap once and for all.  Let the banks hang themselves by creating a total loss of confidence.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:06 | 1494986 no2foreclosures
no2foreclosures's picture

Is the writer fucking stupid or trying to be fucking cute? GD2 started in Oct. 2008 and this Oct., after some $20 TRILLION FRN funny money, the second crash will occur (or sooner) and the dumbed-downed Walmart shoppers will finally wake up from their Matrix and realize the shit they are wallowing in literally.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:11 | 1495005 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

one must consider whether high long term unemployment is actually a deliberate government policy to conserve oil and keep the price down. If oil is near 100$ usd per barrel with 20% unemployment and thus 1/5 of the workers no longer driving to work, then consider what the price of oil would be if the demand increased by 20%.

The damp fuse economy that burns just hot enough to smolder without going out seems to be the way going forward. Excess capacity in housing - most markets have at least 2 year surplus of homes, dwindling UPS and Fedex deliveries means less internet shopping. Brick and mortar bankruptcies like Borders means dwindling retail sales.


Washington D.C. remaining the only area in the nation with rising home prices tells us the palace parties on while the serfs starve.

Smart money says cut expenses to the bone, stop all nonessential spending and batten down the hatches, this storm will only get worse.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 14:20 | 1495272 Ra-Marduk
Ra-Marduk's picture

Tyler, grow some balls and tell the truth. We are in the beginning stages of the real great depression, which has been made worse by the rampant market manipulation and outright lies. I heard your interview with that bow-tie idiot from bloomberg and your voice was quaking like a shy 2nd grader giving an oral report. Sack-up and stand proud my friend.

Tue, 08/23/2011 - 22:55 | 1593351 karmete
karmete's picture

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