• Knave Dave
    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

Guest Post: Attention Passengers on Global Equity Flight 2011: Assume Crash Positions

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Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:50 | 1882764 undercover brother
undercover brother's picture

Ummm.  Ain't happening.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:56 | 1882790 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Agreed.  Apparently this correlation no longer works.  You know, just 'cause Fraud Street changed the rules.  Didn't you get the memo?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:04 | 1882832 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Junk all you want.  They're about to take it green.  Again.  What do you think is gonna happen when the Euro rebounds?  *then* the correlation will magically work again.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:22 | 1882920 rocker
rocker's picture

I did not junk you. I would like to make a remark. These charts look good and factual.

Yes they will make it green all day on NO volume. Volume verifies the rallies. Not forced short covering.

I am and will remain 100% cash.   All we have to do is wait for the trigger and credit event.

It will happen because it is real. This will be a financial crash.

There is nothing to debate. Dr. Copper has spoken. Bond yeilds have spoken.

All we need now is for reality to set in. Hope is not a investment theme.   

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:39 | 1883000 jm
jm's picture

Forget charts.

Not every European bank is going to implode, but just about every european is priced as if they are.

Find the ones that will weather this storm (read: their government bond holdings are beating bunds) and exceed tier 1 capital targets and take a risk.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:29 | 1883465 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

The buy the good bank stategy did not work in 08 and it will not work in 2011-2012.  The baby will get thrown out with the bathwater.  All banks will fall.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:04 | 1884320 jm
jm's picture

You could be right of course, but QE is out of the bag.  And even those morons at the ECB know they have to do it to save the financial system.

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:49 | 1883069 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Hope you are truly in cash and not in MMKTs cause a lot of MMKTs are invested in EU Banks. I was all in Bond Funds when the original crash hit and I made out. This is not a reccomendation just free info and this and $4.95 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbux.

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:08 | 1883387 rocker
rocker's picture

Yep. 3 Accounts all Cash. Just Waiting.  They may push this around till after Xmas.

Who knows, right now hedge funds are burning shorts. A bigger drop when they do this.

One morning we could see a 400/500 drop at the open which will cause a down ramp.

I am beginning to believe that is what they want.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:32 | 1883479 11b40
11b40's picture

Short interest has dropped.  If will take a lot more this time to force a short-covering rally, unlike a few weeks ago when everybody & his brother was short.

I guess we will see soon, but the upside from here looks very limited, while the downside looks....well, it looks like it could go down a long way.

The Santa rally is facing European headwinds that even the jolly old Bernake can't tame.  I don't know what tomorrow may bring, but the Europeans are having discussions now about things that were unmentionable a few months ago.  The more they talk, the worse it looks for the Euro/European Union retaining the same character of the past.  Regardless how hard I look, finding positive things to get excited about is almost impossible.  Seems like for every plus, there are at least 2 minuses.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:14 | 1883174 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hows that 'takin it green' workin out? And even if and when they do 'take it green' so what?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:26 | 1882934 LeonardoFibonacci
LeonardoFibonacci's picture

Assume the fetal position & start suck your thumb.  Somehow i feel less pain when i do this! 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:54 | 1883097 max2205
max2205's picture

Bennie and the Inkjets dont give a fuck about your charts  (BTW I DO), he will Penn St fuck all shorts beyond imagination....or so he thinks

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:38 | 1883520 11b40
11b40's picture

it will take a boatload of new debt, because more QE here won't mean much if Europe blows up....so to insure the Ponzi extension, Ben will have to print for the ECB, too.  If it comes to light that the FED is bailing out the US banks and the Euro banks at the same time, all hell will break lose.  The politics of it all would be unbearable.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:38 | 1882995 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

yeah that's right...and go long Lehman and MF Global...and all that jazz....

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:50 | 1883072 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Yup sometimes the board where things are supposed to balance from one side to the other, well this board breaks and two sides get down. It will take more time than most people think but the USD will break.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:42 | 1883540 11b40
11b40's picture

On a long enough timeline....and all that jazz.  The USD will beak against what?  Really, what breaks first?  EUR or USD?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:05 | 1883650 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Well open a history book and all that jazz...  Assignats, Rettenmark, Continental dollars, Greenback introduction.... yeah I know too much jazz probably, boring... History started in the 1980, on hte first day God gave Ronald Reagan to the USA on the seventh day God sent his an angel to the USA (= earth) and music was invented by Madonna... Currency crisis are just business as usual if you take a longer perspective, there are hundreds of crisis, which are either sovereign, banking, currency, just hundreds of them in history. USA already defaulted three times (continental dollars, Civil war 100% inflatipon), 70s inflation and now it is the fourth time. Currency crisis, severe inflation, banking crisis or sovereign crisis are business as usual from historical point of view. Forget about fiat, at that point they will all break in a different ways, they can break through printing (long time scale) or in shorter time scale... Take your pick

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:12 | 1883689 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Oopsss forgot the devaluation of 1933 against Gold...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:47 | 1883859 11b40
11b40's picture

Well, if you know so much, why didn't you answer my question?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:16 | 1883190 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Stock Market Non-Insider Participants = Crash Test Dummies

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 22:22 | 1885500 Sopra Tutt1
Sopra Tutt1's picture

It can't happen, because this time is different.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:51 | 1882767 Ancona
Ancona's picture

I want my mommy!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:54 | 1882778 Shleprock
Shleprock's picture

I want your Mommy too

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:57 | 1882795 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Ummmmm......so you're in to necrophelia?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:13 | 1882875 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Awwww. That's sad.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:14 | 1882880 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Snap!

Gold, bitchez

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:15 | 1883186 augmister
augmister's picture

I had your mommy and she tasted pretty good!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:53 | 1882774 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Great timing for this post, just as US equities commence on yet another ramp job.

Dow spikes nearly 60 points in 10 minutes.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:15 | 1882820 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I'd say it's too early.

First the EURUSD has to touch 1.30 (December, latest),

then (according to Gonzalo Lira) the Big Raid on EZ Sovereign Bonds might to begin in earnest (he says tomorrow's French Auction),

then we have Xmas & the biggest Bonuses of All Times

and then we have a decoupling of US Equities (down) from all Euro-related things.

See you at EURUSD 1.5 at Easter

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:15 | 1882885 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Who put your Dr. Evil hat on today?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:41 | 1883007 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you are right, I'm slightly down the wind today - not my usual cheerful self

but the fact that the masters of the universe have found a way of having the Dutch Debt now with consistenly higher yields than Germany really makes me angry

it's not only too manipulated - it's grossly manipulated

too much hot USD searching some quck killer bets and all on "seasonal themes"

usually I'm skeptical of all conspiracy theories - idiocy explains 99% of the cases, IMO

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:13 | 1882861 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture
and when you switch over to an hourly line chart you'll notice that the 11/11/11 high occured at 11am. This high could also be labeleda 5th of C (in an ending diagonal) from the  the Oct. 3rd lows.  We are now in the 1st leg down unless 126.81 hourly closing basis gets taken out.. or so it seems.
Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:17 | 1882894 Ivanovich
Ivanovich's picture

Was this before or after Mercury entered alignment with Uranus?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:19 | 1882903 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

lol no actually this was the next day after a full moon and an astroid the size of a battle ship grazed past earth :o)

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:26 | 1882933 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

There's Klingons circling Uranus.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:32 | 1882965 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I brought this up because it was within a technical market posting.  I'm calling for a plunge come friday's open bitches! 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:44 | 1883841 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Well you are a bit too specific, BUT....

Hard to deny that moon has behavioral impact on people, same goes for Sun apparently. There is a statistical sample of 34,000 people over 30 years that show that people commit suicide more often in Spring. There is apparently nothing in litterature or culture that spring is a sad time, or some sort other variable.... maybe it is because tax are due in April there and Sweden has a very high rate of taxes (that could be actually the reason...) Joke on teh side, assuming that Moon and Sun has 0 impact on what goes on the earth?? Hello??? Women menstrual cycle length, reproduction cycle following moon cycles, tides, inability to sleep on full moon (documented stastically). Well about zero impact of the Sun on earth, well it that would be case, we would not be blogging here on hte first place, because there would be no light and no life. That is was is powering all that is there to see, and the amount of power varies across time... There are credible evidence that total absence of sunlight on people has impact on people sleep cycle, mood ect... That is put a human being in a cave for months without sunlight and watch.... not pretty.

So while I can not accept that Sun and moon are telling us when the crash will be, it is also imprudent to accept the hypothesis that there is no impact on human behavior from stellar objects, given the ample evidence that those two somewhat massive objects have large influence on life cycles on our planet

From that point to predict when teh market crash on a given day at a given hour... yeah right...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:53 | 1882776 ffart
ffart's picture

Silver barely holding 34 now.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:55 | 1882788 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Why would you want silver when you can buy some delicious CRM stock?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:59 | 1882809 The Axe
The Axe's picture

long clouds...lol

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:49 | 1883067 ffart
ffart's picture

Well I guess if I listened to my broker I'd be buying all sorts of useless shit right now.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:54 | 1882779 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

They're on instruments.  The copilot is losing air, and everyone had fish but the kamikaze pilot.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:56 | 1882780 ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

Well done, could not agree more. Nice to see you pick up the possible head and shoulders with RS forming here. Weekly fractaling nicely to '07 top. Only difference - the Fed and crony capitalism are out of control here. We may have to wait this one out till they literally implode the whole system. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 11:54 | 1882782 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

market coming back nicely

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:02 | 1882800 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Coming back to what, 1995 levels? DOW is 12,025, so all is well I guess.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:25 | 1882928 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

These sky falling headlines get tiresome. It is especially irritating reading them while the market bounces back for the day

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:41 | 1883010 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Then you behave as they intend.  Or not. It is not a question of if, but of when. 

The leading indicators will move after the system collapses, not before.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 12:48 | 1883059 fuu
fuu's picture

3 weeks 6 days.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 13:14 | 1883182 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hows that 'market bouncin back' goin now that its back to days lows?

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