This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Guest Post: Backwardation In Gold And Silver

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted and © by Keith Weiner

Backwardation in Gold And Silver

On Monday, May 14, something happened that hasn’t happened since Dec of 2008.  Two successive near-month precious metals futures contracts were in backwardation at the same time.  To oversimplify, backwardation is when the price of a futures contract is lower than the price in the spot market.  It should not be possible for it to happen in gold and silver.

But ever since Dec 2008, it has been recurring intermittently, and recently it has become the “new normal” for each futures contract to head into backwardation before expiring.

Even in this “new normal”, however, it has been only one at a time: one metal, and one month.  This is because the backwardation occurs with the “contract roll”, as people sell the expiring contract and buy one farther out.  The selling pressure on the expiring contract is most intense for a short period of time.  After that, the spread widens as the market makers move on, the selling pressure abates, and with wider spreads all around, both the basis and cobasis fall into oblivion.  Except for the December month, gold and silver futures are liquid in different months.

That is why one does not see both monetary metals in backwardation simultaneously because they are “out of phase” by 30 days and temporary backwardation typically persists for only about a week or so.  And it should be even harder to see two different successive near-dated futures contracts in backwardation.

On May 14, this is precisely what occurred.  Both May and July silver are backwardated.  And June gold is backwardated.  Incredibly, the May silver contract is giving away a 3% annualized profit to anyone who would sell physical silver and buy a May future that delivers in a few weeks (thus recovering the same position).  Even more incredibly, no one can or will take the profit that is dangling out there!

July silver backwardation is smaller, and June gold backwardation is even smaller.  But still!  This should not be possible at all.

Because the next successive contracts are not in backwardation (in silver, all contracts from Jul 2015 on are backwardated), it is not a collapse of trust.  I think that it is a lack of unencumbered metal.  The markets for precious metals, silver more than gold, have become quite tight.


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:38 | 2435986 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

Game over

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:47 | 2436037 malikai
malikai's picture

Oh shit. Backwardaded and QE? Excelsior!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:00 | 2436087 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture



Silver shortage articles = catnip for doomer goons

Whenever a doomer goon sees a silver shortage article, they climb up on their desk, rub their mustaches all over the screen and then "flick" the screen with their "hind legs."



Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:05 | 2436116 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



My Ag coins are swelling like a bbw's feet in a heatwave.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:21 | 2436192's picture

Ron Paul's final money bomb is today.


Stand for Liberty

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:33 | 2436244 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture



Why the hell would Ron Paul continue to plead for money when it's crystal clear he's not getting the nomination?  Oh, that's right... I forgot... he's a thirty year, career politician who uses unrealistic rhetoric to dupe Republican wingNUTS - otherwise known as libertardians - into thinking the colonial past is America's future.

Ron Paul:  Just say NO! to air traffic controllers!


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:41 | 2436278 malikai
malikai's picture

By the way, Lockheed Martin handles Flight services and FlightWatch.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:08 | 2436395's picture

Hey Max, when Ron Paul started duping me I was a life long Democrat. Please adjust your ad hominems accordingly.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:16 | 2436427 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Backwardation is expected when people realize the COMEX is a fraud. People realize that paper gold/silver may go up in smoke, so nw is the time to buy physical. Sing along with me:


Let's get Physical, physical, physical...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:46 | 2436608 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Just laid out 5g for more barbarian relics and Judas money. Also happened to see Pippi Longstocking on TV this morning playing around with her treasure chest full of Phyzz. What a smart girl.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:48 | 2436625's picture



ELAINE: Who was Pippi Longstocking?

KATY: Pippi Longstocking?  Hmm, I don't don't know.

ELAINE: Did she have anything to do with Hitler?

KATY: Hitler?  Maybe.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 17:01 | 2437304 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Could I interest you in some boating insurnace?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:08 | 2436138 resurger
resurger's picture

Oh! Hey babe..

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:10 | 2436148 Strike Back
Strike Back's picture

so you own cats?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:19 | 2436184 BalanceOrBust
BalanceOrBust's picture

Backwardation only in the front months?  Do the paper shorties not have enough fire power to bring the whole chain into backwardation?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:23 | 2436195
Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:22 | 2436487 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:35 | 2436554 malikai
malikai's picture

Ha! That's fuckin awesome.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:52 | 2436649 Seer
Seer's picture

In my mind I'm hearing Jane Curtin correcting 'Emily Litella' (, with Litella then replying:

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 16:49 | 2437256 jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

25percent more cats than leading refineries, how can they do that and make a profit?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:29 | 2436229 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Thanks Max, great analysis explains the backwardation perfectly, tool...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:38 | 2436267 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture



You guys have repeatedly proven that you don't want answers or the truth  ... you want an echo chamber. If I explain to you why there's backwardation, you'll only tell me that's it's bullshit and that your coin purchases last weekend are about to blow up JPM.

Besides, if the paper price of spot metal doesn't matter (the prevalent mantra around here), why all the hoopla about backwardation?


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:42 | 2436286 malikai
malikai's picture

Permanent Backwardation, that is why. Also known as the crack-up boom.

But by all means, please do explain to us unwashed imbeciles why it is in such a state, again?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:03 | 2436306 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Max  -  agree with you regards the backwardation nonsense and another pile of garbage to hoodwink the Gold-bugs with

small point but stop signing off with 'MF' on your posts, you're wasting cyberspace 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:56 | 2436346 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Anyone who uses "doomer" "birther" "truther"  or similar no-content name calling, is engaging in middle school stigmatizing of non-conforming thought and behaviour. 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:06 | 2436376 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture



"non-conforming thought and behaviour" is respectable when it's Copernicus - NOT when it's a doomer goon, spewing out nonsense or a hypocrical wingNUT at a Tea Party equating Obama to Hitler.


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:20 | 2436469's picture

There's no comparison. Hitler's drones were far less accurate than Obama's.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:32 | 2436510 Esculent 69
Esculent 69's picture

What's wrong with that? Hitler was a national socialist, and obama's a socialist with a leninist/stalinist/maoist tinge to it.  Besides, socialism and communism are basically brother and sister.  Siblings from the same father with the same goal; world government.  Just like you and MDB are from the same father, the Bernanke, with the same goal; deception. 

As for the mothers? They're fuckers.  Bithcezzzzz

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:50 | 2436638 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Stalinism has nothing to do wit world gov.. he is not trotski.. he believed in socialism in one country... the rest wanted globla revolution.

stalin was a legendary rationalist.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:56 | 2436664 dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

American debt is definitely a bubble and we do have the worlds highest prison population.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 19:43 | 2437853 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Son, we live in a world that has printers, and those printers have to be guarded by men with guns.  Who's gonna do it?  You?  Lloyd Blankfein?  I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.  You weep for Santiago, and you curse the Banksters.  You have that luxury.  You have the luxury of not knowing what I know. That Santiago's death, while tragic, probably saved lives.  And my existence, while grotesque and incomprehensible to you, saves lives. You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that printer, you need me on that printer.  We use words like interest, easing, and liquidity.  We use these words as the backbone of a life spent debasing something.  You use them as a punchline.  I have neither the time nor the inclination to explain myself to a man who rises and sleeps under the waves of the very liquidity that I provide, and then questions the manner in which I provide it.  I would rather you just said thank you, and went on your way, Otherwise, I suggest you pick up an ink cartridge, and man a printer.  Either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:06 | 2436387 resurger
resurger's picture

i wont babe, please explain, am all ears ...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:27 | 2436505 Diet Coke and F...
Diet Coke and Floozies's picture

Hey Max... I found your echo chamber:

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:47 | 2436310 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Max Fischer Articles = given to him to type up courtesy Ben Bernanke's lackeys.

Whenever a Max Fischer post is saved, it is comedic theater. Hilarious - if it weren't so tragic that someone would believe two absolute criminals and liars (The Bernank and Timmah) are his "heroes".

Max. Look up the word rube.

I did - just to see. Voila~

The same picture you use as an avatar on here is ....there!

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 12:14 | 2440447 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

PM goons are just sewing the stuff in their garments and getting out of Vienna just like people who are trying to escape certain death... you know, the uncivilized. /snark

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:13 | 2436156 DosZap
DosZap's picture

How much Sliver you want, I can get you A shortages of either.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:40 | 2436578 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Question is, at what price?

Given the dealer premiums, etc. seems like 3% isn't nearly enough to bring physical onto the market.

Cheap bastards are cheap.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:40 | 2435994 vmromk
vmromk's picture

A 3% premium to unload my silver and get back Bernanke Bucks ?


I don't need any more Monopoly money.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:26 | 2436208 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:40 | 2435999 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 That ought to sooth all those folks getting margin calls on their long positions.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:45 | 2436026 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Anybody trading leveraged paper in the gold market deserves what the bankers give them.  Anybody buying physical with cash doesn't have any margin calls to worry about.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:41 | 2436005 bobola
bobola's picture

So, that means the price of physical gold and silver should start going up, based on supply and deman, right..??

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:45 | 2436028 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Right, and don't forget to place your rotten molars under the pillow so the tooth fairy brings you a trillion euro bank note.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:36 | 2436260 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

"Right, and don't forget to place your rotten molars under the pillow so the tooth fairy brings you a trillion euro bank note."

"Right, and don't forget to place your rotten molars under the pillow so the tooth fairy brings you a trillion drachma bank note."

There, I fixed it for you!


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:42 | 2436009 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

Holy Cow, Holy cow. Just as we got rid of the tax...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:42 | 2436010 EBR MOD 0
EBR MOD 0's picture

I am still stacking, wired da fiat :-) come on Fed-Ex....

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:42 | 2436012 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'The markets for precious metals, silver more than gold, have become quite tight.'

Understatement of the week.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 15:25 | 2436841 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

It's funny.  The image that brought to my mind was not one of the COMEX, or nearly-empty silver vaults.

It was of JPMC employees staying at work all night, shredding documents and erasing hard drives.


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:42 | 2436016 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Typical Crimex.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:44 | 2436022 Kingbingo
Kingbingo's picture

Does this mean that the market feels the risk of fiat collasping within a few weeks is not worth 3%?


That is hardly negliable.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:47 | 2436032 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

3% is white noise, they don't want the sheeple to put deux et deux together.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:15 | 2436166 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Would you sell your silver today for a 3% gain when we could get a new round of QE tomorrow resulting in a 10-20 or even 30% gain?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:18 | 2436180 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



It's indicative of the strength of the hands now holding the physical, which grows stronger by the day.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:28 | 2436218 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

Real investing for infinity, right here on ZH.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:47 | 2436036 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

But if I want to sell my phyz the dealer is taking 3% or more on the transaction.  Just like I paid >$2 per Eagle to get them.  And then you've got the fee on the futures contract. 


3% doesn't even come close to covering it. You lose coming and going.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:48 | 2436039 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Didn't they both go into backwardation last year?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:55 | 2436071 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

yes, though i don't know if it was 2 successive months.  but it does seem like i've read these exact same comments in succession in a thread before.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:46 | 2436301 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Deja whoosh!

And it's gone...


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:48 | 2436041 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

Still stacking cheap physical, thx Ben!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 19:48 | 2437862 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The sale is ending today (Au = $1573.70/Toz, Ag = $28.08/Toz)

Prices (in FRNs) are going back up again.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:50 | 2436048 postafoa02
postafoa02's picture

greetings from you know where

good news! i get to have some time off this weekend

I can tell you that thinking about backwardation in metals won't be very high on my bucket list.. The day will come when money will be money and men will be men. Until then, the asylum is about the most sane place you can find on earth.

yours, nemesis nomos

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:51 | 2436054 roguetraderinchicago
roguetraderinchicago's picture

short squeeze coming.  Reference July/dec Meal!  LMAO

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:52 | 2436056 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:57 | 2436067 resurger
resurger's picture

the May silver contract is giving away a 3% annualized profit to anyone who would sell physical silver and buy a May future that delivers in a few weeks (thus recovering the same position).  Even more incredibly, no one can or will take the profit that is dangling out there!

Physical, Bitchez

+5 Soaps

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:54 | 2436069 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Get new market makers. Someone is not doing their job. What happened to supply and demand establishing a fair price? It is that nasty Blythe Masters probably behind it all.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:56 | 2436074 paulbain
paulbain's picture

As Harvey Organ, "Turd Ferguson," Jeff Nielson, and others have repeatedly pointed out, the market for silver futures contracts is ridiculously and criminally maniuplated. Furthermore, the CFTC connives in this maniuplation, or possibly even abets it. Your best investment is hard, cold metal. Buy physical silver, and avoid the COMEX.

-- Paul D. Bain


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:57 | 2436081 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

Anyone honest: get yer crap outta Crimex while ya still can.

Any GLD or SLV owners: sell while you can and buy the Real Thing. No, not coke ya wackos.

These are paper scam vehicles w/o the metal they say they have. The Custodians (JPM for SLV) have treated the stashes like their personal property. And now they've sold it and (the next 10 years of forward production) to keep it down versus fiat trash paper, with ever greater naked shorts, at ever lower prices. To an Eastern Coalition who's onto their game and is using it to leave the zombie banks completely shorn of their gold.

The metal's either not there or each ounce has 1,000 owners, or both.  Get out of all paper metal bankster scam vehicles while you can, before they hit the wall at 120mph,

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:08 | 2436137 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Agree, anybody buying GLD or SLV is making bets on where the price of gold and silver will be based in fiat currency, which is ok if you just want to speculate on price, but it totally defeats the purpose of gold/silver as wealth preservation and insurance, although I expect those that didn't figure this out after the MF Global fiasco will get another object lesson eventually.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:58 | 2436082 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

Could backwardation be the result of producers falling all over themselves to hedge as much production as they can because they see deflation coming? Or perhaps producers desperately need cash and this is cheaper than a loan?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:34 | 2436254 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Yeah the miners got together called Ben and he assured them if deflation kicks off he will hang himself from the nearest lamp post and will never, never print to get his buddies off the hook....  Why would the producers be short on cash at this point?  Shit runs downhill, payday is on Friday stick with what your good at..

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:59 | 2436089 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

Ya gotta love Kitco's John Nadler. Read his commentary today. IMHO marking the start of the precious metals bull run.



Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:13 | 2436159 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

According to Nadler, gold's been in a bear market since 2001.  It's hard to believe anybody even reads his crap, other than for a laugh.  It would be the equivalent of a 'respected stock analyst' writing daily reports explaining how 'AAPL's been in a bear market since 2001, and dont't let the price appreciation fool you - it's been a bad investment, and continues to be a bad investment' and getting all kinds of positive press for their deep insight into the market.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:36 | 2436201 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Yeah what's with Nadler?   Why does Kitner leave him on, embarrassing Kitco?


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 15:55 | 2436976 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

To get readers to sell their precious metals to kitco

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:24 | 2436200 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

The recent run up for the USD is indisputable. Nadler's take "that QE3 remains only a dream in the sleep of the commodity bulls who have become hooked on such generosity" is laughable, however, for anyone who bothers to look at central bank balance sheets over the last three years. The only way balance sheets shrink is if debts (call it an asset or a liability, I don't really care) are written off.

While it is a theoretical possibility that we see massive write downs, this would be a complete travesty for the European, British, Japanese and US banks. No way the lapdog central banks allow this to happen without a fight... you can almost hear the battle cry, "Print or Die!" Until then, all these paper gyrations are noise, tradable noise.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:30 | 2436235 TheAlchemist
TheAlchemist's picture

I read the article.


The guy needs his head examined.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:00 | 2436090 texas goldfinger
texas goldfinger's picture

The author has no clue about backwardation.  The forward curve for silver is in contango from May 2012 through Dec 2014.  Perhaps he needs to back to commodities trading 101 for a refresher or maybe look at a live quote screen.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:00 | 2436092 katchum
katchum's picture

Interesting, thanks for pointing this out. Time to leverage on gold and silver.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:00 | 2436093 UTICA CLUB XX PURE

Silver's finally green today at + .95 I hope we're climbing out of the down trend.


Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:32 | 2436245 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

Why?  I don't like it when the sale price ends on ANYTHING!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:57 | 2436348 Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

Indeed, still saving up from my last purchase, but I'd be glad if I could get myself another 20 oz at $24-25 before QE3...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:04 | 2436374 jomama
jomama's picture

agreed. let those grundle-garglers manipulate it down further!  

those fucks will bump it back up as soon as i get paid again.

it's a goddamn conspiracy, i tell you.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:02 | 2436101 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

Strange, indeed.

However, I find it even more strange that anyone is selling their physical gold and silver any more.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:01 | 2436366 Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

That's exactly what I said to the last guy I bought from. He said that it was probably the last part of his batch he'd sell before prices went back up. After concluding the transaction (of course!) I asked him why he was selling if he hoped prices went back up, especially 1 week after Argentina and Bolivia nationalized their respective private energy companies. No answer.

I might have a net worth under 5k, but I'm a stronger hand than a rich american expat. I guess that's funny, in a way.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 12:23 | 2440525 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

the difference between someone holding on to their phyz and someone selling is: holders are strong hands, sellers are weak hands.  The lack of interest these days is due to a deliberate policy by the masters of universe to crush sentiment since May 2011.  In essence, they pummelled many into being weak hands. It worked. So there is nothing strange going on, its the same thing I've seen for 7 years.  Now have a nice weekend and hang on.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:05 | 2436118 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture


IMHO its buy physical gold. Hedge with out of the money GLD puts. Short term the hedging helps smooth out the dips. Ultimately both ends will win as physical goes to the moon and GLD goes to 0.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:06 | 2436124 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

"Greedy Sheep Trap Technology" TM brought to you by Da Club SM

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:07 | 2436129 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

"Even more incredibly, no one can or will take the profit that is dangling out there..."


Not really incredible...if there is such pervasive and continuing backwardation, that means that the metal is likely to be worth even more the longer out you bet is everyone is gunshy about being caught out with no actual metal... 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:09 | 2436142 kralizec
kralizec's picture

I think that it is a lack of unencumbered metal.

Yup.  Stack while you can.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:12 | 2436147 JackT
JackT's picture

Silver Eagles were quick to deliver just a couple of weeks ago. Anyone know if that is still the case?

Silver kills zombies right? Or is it only vampires?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:24 | 2436198 TraitorsHang
TraitorsHang's picture

I think it only kills werewolves and central bankers.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:14 | 2436419 Esculent 69
Esculent 69's picture

Actually, silver bullets kill werewolves. If we are all going to live in this fantasy land that TPTB want us to live in we can at least be correct on the correct way to kill these monsters.  but, to my knowledge i don't know of any monster that can survive a shotgun blast to the head.  And we all know that there is only one head that can grow and i don't think that one will help them after the shotgun to the head. 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:20 | 2436164 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Faber sent out a rare short missive today saying that gold and silver and gold stocks will bottom within ten days.  Within the same time period he thinks the stock market will have a relief rally back to 1370-1400, but would not likely see new highs, and should be used to sell into.  Also says the dollar and bonds are overbought and will correct.


He's been saying(correctly) for many months that gold was not done correcting yet.   He has the best track record of anyone on these kinds of calls... I'd say he's right 80% of the time I've been subscribing (6 years).

Jim Rogers is half that at best -- so FWIW.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:35 | 2436257 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

And that puts Nadler <10%

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:03 | 2436372 Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

contrarian indicator?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 15:57 | 2436982 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Thanks , info appreciated

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:17 | 2436174 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 Hey, when you pay them for the gold ,what do all those gold lovers do with the money, buy the gold back?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:22 | 2436193 zebrasquid
zebrasquid's picture

Good question. That's why I don't sell...who wants paper anything these days?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:27 | 2436215 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Hey, when you pay them for the gold ,what do all those gold lovers do with the money, buy the gold back?


Exactly.............................................BTFD, profits= more Ounces.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:17 | 2436176 buzzardsluck
buzzardsluck's picture

Silver only costs $5 to get it out of the ground, why the big deal about it?


/sarc (for those who don't remember the cock goblin that used to post that shit)

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:06 | 2436388 Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

You've been here 5 weeks. You haven't even had a chance to argue with the original poster of this meme.

Are you just parroting this line from other posters to be popular?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:45 | 2436614 buzzardsluck
buzzardsluck's picture

Yes, I'm dying for internet popularity.  Maybe I should post 'gold BitcHezzzzzzzzzzzzz' or 'bullish' more?

In case you didn't know this, it is possible to view this website without being a registered user.  I wasn't reading in the beginning but arrived shortly thereafter.

Lastly, who in the fuck would want to argue with the original troll (rocket something? Like most trolls he had several names) who was saying this asinine statement?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 15:15 | 2436774 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Mathman iirc..

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:26 | 2436209 Mr. Lucky
Mr. Lucky's picture

I will worry about PM prices about 10 years from now when a loaf of bread cost $25.00 (if that little time and money).

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:33 | 2436231 firstfifthcolumnist
firstfifthcolumnist's picture

In a negative real yield world (see todays US tips auction), a 3% arb should be bread and jam to hedge funds (especially if you can leverage it) so this is a significant event.


JPM were the "Dark Lords" of the Silver futures market weren't they? 

Them and a certain Warren "Mines a Mr Whippy and no I don't speculate in the Silver market even though I ramped it from $4 and tried to destroy Martin Armstrong in the process" Buffet are they arch manipulators.

That was part of the $70tri of derivs they have on their books.  Perhaps Jamie D isn't so keen to go for the "double" market manipulation now he, Macris et al have had their pants pulled down in IG9??


Let's hope so.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:41 | 2436280 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

all prices are controlled...


With an army of secretaries Napoleon sought to conquer the world…

The point is that the information you require to pursue your dreams, whatever they may be, is out there, but you must seek it, by filtering out all the noise. To be successful, you must also accept that your dream is going to evolve with experience, because as you leave the body of empire, pricks and vaginas conforming themselves, your intellect will grow, seeking to confirm itself in the same manner.

With sufficient energy, you find the spirit of your dream, and its clothing, as manifested to the empire, is just a temporary accessory, a façade. You will recognize your destination when the building of empire facades spins around the elevator of your spirit, when you see through the various facades of empire, to its essential character.

When you are 7 and get into a muscle car, you dream of owning a muscle car. When you are 13 and get into a mansion, you dream of owning a mansion. And so forth. Look around. The empire is the least common denominator, the smallest dream, shared by the most people, with the smallest minds, endlessly buying and selling each other out, which forms the gravity, from which you must escape.

How is it that Alexander, Cleopatra, and others conquered such large swaths of “property” with which to build empires? If you check your History and look around, you will see effeminated boys posing as men, bullied about by emasculated girls posing as women, all as far from nature as humanly possible, and all seeking control for the sake of control as their common dream. Their “purchases” just temporarily relieve the associated anxiety, in a positive feedback loop, in which enough is never enough, ending in tyranny.

I use the term make-work because History demonstrates that the DNA of these participants goes back to the churn pool. Their behavior is not good or evil. It is simply a trade-off, immediate gratification in exchange for DNA removal, which works in favor of choice. You are a function of the choices you make.

The majority chooses empire every time, which you see in the façade of the United States, but Congress is not the spirit of America. Other cultures do not hesitate to attack in fear of effeminate boys and emasculate girls, playing army. Hitler and his economic backers were confident that America had been sufficiently softened with consumption to fall. What happened?

Here we are again, where we never left, a bunch of a-holes feeding their a-holes, “thinking that they understand what is going on around them, because they all “see” alike. Pursue your dreams independent of empire and watch the sh-show on your breaks. When the time comes, if you are prepared, you will naturally recognize the door to the elevator open, which the fashionable empire sees as closed.

Of course the Senate is feeding municipal bankruptcies from China. Why would you expect anything else from an a-hole, a derivative of a derivative of a derivative, hiding derivative exposure? Only a derivative sees power as an integral to be projected and only your own can sell you out. If you can get past denial, the truth will set you free, if you can get past being pissed off. The trick of intelligent children, of course, is not to give up your spirit for coinage to initiate the procession.

The warmongering elite, looking in the mirror, see each other in war, on a platform built for the occasion. Finance is just a prelude, moving the pieces and cementing them into place. Give the terrible twos exactly what they think they want, but don’t feed the temper tantrum of a baby and expect assistance from an intelligent parent, seeking the Unknown.

Think ahead, not behind. Empires seek to domesticate that which they fear. On the other side of the looking glass, hierarchy is a myth, seen as such. Lassie is more real. Main Street doesn’t want Facebook. Surprise, surprise.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 14:11 | 2436407 Jedi Longsabre
Jedi Longsabre's picture

Hey MF, wake up and smell 2012. Many nations have privatized the airtraffic control systems and they are work much better and cheaper than our current system. Also the NextGen GPS system is coming online that will replace most airtraffic contollers.

But those are good union jobs that pay over $200k per year to people without college degrees and they vote DEMOCRAT so we obviously should not upgrade from our 1950's technology. So.... I see now that you are correct and now I am convinced that Ron Paul is stupid and I was stupid too.



Thu, 05/17/2012 - 16:50 | 2437264 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

From the Nat Review article you linked.

"But just two weeks later, none other than Peter Orszag — formerly the director of the Office of Management and Budget for the Obama administration, and currently a Citigroup executive — endorsed a kind of privatized air-traffic control in a Bloomberg op-ed. This is not only a good idea; it’s a centrist one"

He forgot to mention that Orzsag was the head of the CBO before the OMB.  While there during the meltdown, he rendered his Ivy League grade genius opinion that there was only a 50% chance that the Freddie/Fannie bailout would ever cost more than $25B.  Obama's crew understood the value of a such a rare fiscal talent brought him on as Directior of OMB.

This comment has nothing to do with privatizing ATCs so I apologize for the OT--I just can't walk past any chance to piss on a public offical who betrays trust and abets such monstrous fraud.  I




Thu, 05/17/2012 - 15:21 | 2436811 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

I'd like Max Fisher more if he didn't call me a MF at the end of every one of his posts.

Fri, 05/18/2012 - 02:35 | 2438723 Dorky
Dorky's picture

Bernanke: "Get every motherfucker in cash before we do QE3 by almost 100% more."

Geithner: "How should we do that?"

Bernanke: "Offer everyone holding cash a 3% return."

Geithner: "Gee... Ain't that a 'great' deal..."

Sat, 05/19/2012 - 01:18 | 2442834 honestann
honestann's picture

In gold we trust.
Physical gold that is.
And only when it our own grubby paws.

Sun, 05/20/2012 - 00:33 | 2444445 JiveDadson
JiveDadson's picture

Gold is NOT in backwardation, and in fact the yield curve is not even inverted. Neither was it in backwardation on the 14th. Not even close. Look:

Silver is NOT in backwardation, although the yield curve IS inverted:

I suspect that writers are confusing the forward offered rates with nominal lease rates.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!