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Guest Post: Bear Market Bounce OR New Bull Market

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Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:48 | 1620912 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

what a fucking terrible article or at least change the title to something useful

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:10 | 1620979 candyman
candyman's picture

ugh,painful

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:36 | 1621029 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

More fancy napkin scribblings. Buy if you want to, but dont say its due to 'techincals' because thats plain BS.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 20:59 | 1621220 mcguire
mcguire's picture

i thought there were some pearls in here.. esp. liked "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".. 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 00:35 | 1621722 AnarchoCapitalist
AnarchoCapitalist's picture

Keynes said that.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:47 | 1620913 max2205
max2205's picture

Who knows. The Bernake knows

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 20:08 | 1621105 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Bernanke is no longer in control. He's been running scared since the tsunami and still doesn't know what to do. QE3 kills the dollar and brings on killer (literally) inflation levels. No QE means S&P below 900 and Obama hits the unemployment lines himself.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:49 | 1620920 reader2010
reader2010's picture

In terms of gold or crude oil, has the stock market made any new high since march, 2000? 

 


“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” - Mark Twain

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:50 | 1620921 Timmay
Timmay's picture

I thought everyone here gave up on "predictions" of a manipulated and irrational stock market??

 

 

1. Bear Market

2. Bull Market

3. I could give a fuck.

That should be the headline.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:07 | 1620969 kito
kito's picture

what about a unicorn market?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:37 | 1621036 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly right Timmay, anyone trying to tell me about 'stock markets technicals' has a screw loose.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:49 | 1620923 Robslob
Robslob's picture

NOTE: Stay out of the market until we figure out what we are going to buy then tell YOU to buy.

Thank You,

Senior Management

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:50 | 1620928 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

Dead Cat Bounce

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:52 | 1620929 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

The market is neither overbought nor oversold, it is overmanipulated.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:58 | 1620944 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Yea, but then how will TA snakeoil salemen sell 'premium content' to ignorant rubes?  TAKE IT BACK!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 20:18 | 1621125 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

How can something be 'extremely oversold' when by any real measure its at least 50% overvalued?

Overmanipulated Ponzi.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 07:03 | 1622084 Bob Paulson
Bob Paulson's picture

You've got no idea what you are talking about, SheepDog-One.

Plenty of traders will tell you that the short term is easier to predict than the longer term. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line. There are always retracements. That's the way it has always been, that's the way it will always be.

When markets are 'extremely oversold' on technicals, they rebound. Short term traders don't care about value, they care about trend.

There's a ton of pro's out there who use technicals. Even guys like Marc Faber talk about them. Watch Paul Tudor Jones' documentary 'Trader'.

Is the market 50% overvalued? I wouldn't doubt that for a second, but traders look at technicals. Save the fundamentals for the buy and hold investors believe Wall Street analysts, will get their heads handed to them in due course.

Don't criticize something you don't understand.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 08:54 | 1622251 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OOOOH riiiight, I just dont get it...and technicals really are driving this market and YOU of course predict it daily. Sit down and shut up moron.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:52 | 1620930 sheeple2012
sheeple2012's picture

this guy manages other people's money?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:59 | 1620946 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

He's selling the 'buy high' and 'sell higher' concept.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:35 | 1621025 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Is that a problem?  It works until it doesn't, and it has.  Until it doesn't.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:00 | 1620948 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

That's the best kind money to manage. If he loses it there's no skin off his back.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 18:57 | 1620940 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

It's neither because this isn't a market.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:01 | 1620951 mfoste1
mfoste1's picture

ahhhhhhhhh!  {*light bulb going off in head*}

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:08 | 1620970 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

The glass isn't half empty or half full.  It's just twice as big as it needs to be.

-OR-

Two wrongs don't make a right, but, three lefts do.

Just something to ponder.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 01:38 | 1621828 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

.............Two wrongs don't make a right, but, three lefts do....................

Sincere thnx for posting something profound enough to warrrent a response.  In the midst of all the pseudo-intellectual banter...this simple line of ten words captures the essence.  What essence ask you?  Said eesence say I.  Grave thnx.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:05 | 1620960 jsavage
jsavage's picture

is this a joke?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:05 | 1620961 jsavage
jsavage's picture

is this a joke?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:21 | 1620997 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

It might go up it might go down, but subscribe to our newsletter for a fee to be hassled by 20 something money managers who will piss away your life savings. After all youre way too busy to deal with this investment stuff, leave it to the pros!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:12 | 1620985 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Forget the charts and stat dweebs. Watch the 4 central banks. That is all.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:13 | 1620987 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

it isa running of the bulls!!

get your money in the market!!

hurry!

it is 11,600(ish)!!!

it can only go up!

LOL!!

ALL those SHORTS CAN NOT BE RIGHT!!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:18 | 1620995 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

The deadwood has yet to be removed... No new bull market....

But with printing presses.. it can look like a bull market...

I dig the Mark Twain!!

'History doesn't necessarily repeat, but it certainly rhymes'

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:38 | 1621038 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

It is better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than to open it and remove all doubt.

 

-- Mark Twain

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:22 | 1620998 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

lulz

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:36 | 1621027 rfbear
rfbear's picture

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice shame on me.  Fool me three times...I dare ya!

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:46 | 1621057 Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

LOL how about July '09, July '10, Aug '11?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 20:10 | 1621106 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I think they only say that in Tennessee.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:41 | 1621047 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Tyler/Sacrilige can we have the links to out last few posts back under "My Account" back.  It's probably hard on the database, but it certainly is useful for tracking replies.

Thanks for your consideration.

JG

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 20:50 | 1621189 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

OT--yah, but one rather understands how hard this is in the mix.  But +1 - Ned

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:46 | 1621060 rfbear
rfbear's picture

I was thinking more along the lines of QE1, QE2, QE3 carrot.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:49 | 1621066 homegr0wn
homegr0wn's picture

My browser says zerohedge.com, but this is clearly a cnbc.com article.

WTF. MIND BLOWN.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:50 | 1621069 LynRobison
LynRobison's picture

So I am supposed to consider buying into a stock market that is manipulated, levitated, high-speed traded, and over-rated in order to accumulate more paper dollars whose value is about to evaporate? Why exactly would I consider doing that?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 20:12 | 1621109 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Well, I declare!  Haven't you heard?  It's the only real option available.  Everyone is doing it.  No interest in a savings account.  Treasuries suck.  Bonds suck.  You HAVE to get on the merry-go-round.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 20:14 | 1621117 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Because the nearest casino is too far away and pokerstars.net kicked you out?

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 21:41 | 1621330 caerus
caerus's picture

you should consider shorting it

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 19:58 | 1621089 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

this market is called the "QE3 being priced in" market...After which, there is no where to go but down.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 20:28 | 1621142 Djirk
Djirk's picture

to me this looks like a traders market, long term trend down......despite QE 1 & 2 (and threats of QE3 the market is around 20% off the 07 highs and the recent peaks were 13% off the 07 highs....look out below when the debt/inflation from QE remains but the benfits are gone (until wage driven inflation kicks in)

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 20:35 | 1621160 rfbear
rfbear's picture

Driven

Really.  How do you know?  That's what people here have been saying for two years and I've been thinking along those lines up til now too.  I still think that your view and all of the supporting evidence is still valid but it doesn't seem to make any difference.

I know we're all a little sensative here about what the market is and isn't and I agree with most here.  It is a sham.  However, it is what it is and that's what we have to work with.

Wed, 08/31/2011 - 20:54 | 1621203 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Well said rfbear!

most if not all bloggers here know manipulation/fraud/corruption/ is everywhere!  IMHO,  'you cant change the primary trend' mantra is still valid in the end..Any sane, rational, intelligent person here @ ZH should be upset and sensative about the markets.  But god dammit! It's still our manipulated markets!!

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