Guest Post: Big Trouble Brewing

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Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:01 | 1765402 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

TURD 2012

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:03 | 1765419 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

This is all bullish...Full Green Ahead!!!!

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:11 | 1765463 ratso
ratso's picture

Oh great, another prediction that the sky is falling.  Buy water, food, gold and dig a hole in the ground.

Just what I needed this moring - THE SKY IS GOING TO FALL _ watch out.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:18 | 1765519 Pladizow
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I tried watching the video and got discouraged as soon as I heard he was a professor, then when he said the recession ended in mid 09, I exited!

Total watching time less then 10 sec.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:37 | 1765614 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Since Chris needs to Pussyfoot, let me say it.

Very high liklihood of a huge downturn in the market next week. Black Monday, Tuesday or some such. The news will flash on Saturday, 15th. Good to pay attention.

Everything down, a risk off like not seen in a long time. PM's too. It's been hinted at variously, astrologically included. Clif High also has that date (10/15) as a big move day.

Hedge accordingly. I am.

ORI

The Perversion of Language

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:56 | 1765626 Bananamerican
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"...and I am generally not given to hyperbole"

Dude. That's why we COME HERE!" ;)

 

also,

"Belgium is potentially on the hook for $78.6 billion in bailout funds for a single institution, which amounts to 17% of GDP (2010 figure). To put this into perspective for our US readers, that would be the equivalent of the USA guaranteeing $2.6 trillion..."

Don't spoil the surprise....

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:05 | 1765747 rocker
rocker's picture

During the debates last time Bloomberg asked about the next financial crisis. Bloomberg did not get a commit back abourt it.

Bloomberg said U.S. Banks have 700 Billion in exposure to the European Banking System.

Believe this. Bloomberg knows. They have the best access to world economies than some countries themselves have.

Gosh, I would love to have a Bloomberg terminal or access. 

Don't Buy Stocks:  U.S. Banks have 700 Billion in exposure.  It is a crisis just waiting for a trigger.

Pimco keeps saying, everybody will get a opportunity to buy stocks cheaper in the near future.

The bond market King understands the markets too.  They see the CDS spreads.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:19 | 1765825 J 457
J 457's picture

Many people simply will not BTFD until Greece/EU implodes.  THAT will be my buy signal, starting around 1020 range down to 940.  Until then, why buy when you know any day your "investment" will drop 15-25%, as just happened last week.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:23 | 1766099 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

Why listen to Feldstein - he didn't call the first crash.

 

We have a very simple debt bubble that has been created by central banks worldwide over 15 years and is now collapsing.  QE and QEII treated the symptoms and made everyone chat about recovery.  And now after QEII we can see that the disease is still there.

 

There is no "double dip".  The bubble collapse continues and will continue until we deal with the central problems - the massive debt and unstable fiat money.

 

Data on the bubble collapse:

 

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

 

 

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:29 | 1766171 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

good post, but I would suggest the leveraging started more like 40 years ago, not 15.  While the curve has become steep over the past 15 years, the first 25 years had to "come first".

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:42 | 1766231 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

KK,

 

True enough.  The ramp over the past 15 years was the blow-off phase. 

 

Where the hell was Feldstein as total US debt grew to 375% of GDP?

 

Perhaps some answers here: http://www.nber.org/feldstein/cv.html

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:34 | 1766203 Darth..Putter
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You just guaranteed that the range will be 750 down to 540

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:49 | 1766265 Fox Moulder
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The (illegal) Treasury Dept guarantee on Fannie and Freddie alone is worth over $5 trillion.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:00 | 1765731 kridkrid
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so if everything is down, what's the hedge?  Cash until QE3 (because everything down will certainly bring on QE3) then everything back into ____________ (what, PM's).  But at some point a crash takes out cash, I would think.  But not yet.  Likely not even close to that yet.  But what do I know.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:09 | 1765779 machineh
machineh's picture

'Clif High also has that date (10/15) as a big move day.'

Clif High -- ain't he just the doormat for Wile E. Coyote?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:21 | 1765839 vato poco
vato poco's picture

"Astrologically included"?

Yeah, the augers & Oracle bones here are making dire warnings, as well. "A great empire will fall someday." Can't get any clearer than THAT!

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:28 | 1765871 vato poco
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OTOH, I gotta give you credit, ORI. You made a very specific prediction for a very specific timeframe that's less than a week from now. Even if I'm a little snarky as to your prediction methodology, that takes balls. If you turn out to be right - and we'll know very soon - I'll be the first to stand up in the public square at noon and eat crow & sing your praises.

Regards, Vato

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:45 | 1765958 Jeff Lebowski
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Credit on the prediction with specifics to ORI as well....  But believe this isn't the first such prediction (with similar methodology).

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:33 | 1765897 trav7777
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so if this doesn't happen, are you going to leave ZH or at least refrain from spamming or making any future predictions?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:10 | 1766332 Shirley Wilfahrt
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And if it does.... will you take a large silver fork and jam it into your eye??

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:33 | 1765907 ElvisDog
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You're being sarcastic, right? Astrologically? You mean the Mayan priests and/or Nostradamus looked into the future and forsaw the precise date of Oct 15, 2011 as a stock market crash. I have become bored with "impending crash" predictions. Will you come back on Monday and explain why you were wrong?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:52 | 1765917 slewie the pi-rat
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ori's astrology calls are deadlier than a pickled egg fart in coach

edit:  his call for the UDSX plunging below 73 way back when was as bad as most of mine (and it predicted the bounce there, too),...but he didn't use his charts, i don't think, and was just waxing choatic, perhaps

but when he top-called the markets with his mercury retrograde i had to give him credit for-soothing an awesome interplay of planetary tensions in stocks

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:38 | 1765926 Randall Cabot
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Cliff High...LOL LOL LOL

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:42 | 1765945 pre
pre's picture

Privately, I've been telling my family and friends that this would go down soon.  I've referred many to Chris' website for the 'crash course' as well.

About 6 months ago, I *half*-jokingly told my wife that "the event" would occur on Oct 15th, 2011.  I think we're close, but as the old adage goes, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."  Plan accordingly.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:49 | 1765977 Randall Cabot
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Isn't Oct 15, 2011 the real date that the Mayan calendar ended but they fucked up the math and erroneously came up with Dec 21, 2012?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:01 | 1766036 kridkrid
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Yeah... I think I've read that.  But the Mayan's weren't big college football fans... likely didn't understand that Oct 15, 2011 would fall on a Saturday.  I think we're good.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 16:31 | 1767040 prains
prains's picture

Isn't Oct 15, 2011 the real date that the Mayan calendar ended but they fucked up the math and erroneously came up with Dec 21, 2012?

 

jeez, and here i thought it was the Bolivian calendar that was causing all the problems, thanks for clearing that up

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:46 | 1765966 ArgentDawn
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"Anyone can be a millionaire, but to become a billionaire you need an astrologer."

JP Morgan

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:43 | 1766428 AGuy
AGuy's picture

...Or a Ben Bernanke in your Pocket!

 

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:14 | 1766091 nantucket
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what "market"? (us equity, europe equity, us fixed income, corporates, treasuries, soveriegn debt, EM's, etc, etc).

what precenatge probability is "very high", 30%, 50%, 80%?

what qualifies as "huge"?, 10%, 25%, 50%? 

you left a TON of open ends there.  please quantify.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 16:34 | 1767050 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Steep. And perhaps, regardless of location, cash will be king...for a month or so anyway.

Hope that helps. It's just an in-sight.

ORI

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:13 | 1765798 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Like everybody, I have no idea when the next market crash will occur, but I do happen to hold the view that a market crash is on the way. In fact, my view is that the entire future from here onward will be marked by sharp plunges (both crashes and regular market declines), followed by periods of stability, if not apparent recovery.

 

Can I get a news letter if I say "The market will definately go down, but if it doesn't, then it will go up, but then it will go down and then up again and the cycle will repeat. Nobody is sure exactly when that will happen but experts are in agreement that it will at some point in the future." WTF!

 

A child of five would understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five.
Groucho Marx

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:22 | 1766129 nantucket
nantucket's picture

macholatte:

agree with you, masters of vagueness, obfuscation, and generalizations.  but to stay alive in the investment leter business I think you need to be be vauge ex ante then ex post any event you can point to your prescient call and make yourself look more credible by "admitting" the event wasn't a lock, but you had a "gut feel" it could occur....all the while ignoring the 5 or 6 other events that you had a gut feel about but never came to pass. 

I can get the roll of a die called perfect every time...I think it's gonna be a round, non-negative number between 1 and 6.  I'm a genius!

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:16 | 1766349 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

The problem with the economic prediction business is that the economy is driven more by the self interest of key actors than it is by clear economic data. A perfect example came to light as a result of the Fed audit. $16 trillion was loaned to US and international banks directly from the Fed, and most has not been paid back. These monies are not counted in the money supply, but there are probably strings attached to the money, requiring some investment in treasuries. The assets make the bank look solvent, and allow for financing of government debt, inflating the money supply over time. So things look like X, but Y is happening behind the scenes. I pulled that out of thin air, but it makes sense to me. Someone with a clue please tell me how this $16 trillion will be excluded from the bond markets, and elaborate on what will happen to it.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:58 | 1766019 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I am a subscriber of Chris's and have watched the crash course a number of times. If you haven't you should. Mandatory material for crash preparation.

Www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

He isn't fooled about the recession not ending. He is one of the sound sage voices. And why risk credibilty declaring a date next week? I thought the game would have been over long ago but it is amazing what trillions of extend and pretend dollars can do.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:04 | 1766050 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Pladizow; I had a similar response and quickly hit the stop button.

 

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:40 | 1765639 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Economic collapse or WW3?  Which will work out better for the banksters?  If you can answer that question, you will know the future. Politicians are irrelevant at this point (plus they are just bankster puppets).  Protests are just a sideshow to entertain people and provide video to fill the space between commercials. 

I don't see how complete collapse of the system into some sort of Mad Max, martial law, looting and burning situation benefits the banksters (except maybe to cover their tracks as they head to Paraguay?).  WW3 is much more profitable, puts many people to work fighting the "enemy", brings the most of the country together to fight the enemies of America. We would still get food and gas rationing, bank holidays, gold and silver confiscation (for the war effort) and all the other collapse like restrictions, but they would be doing it all to us in the name of patriotic duty.

My bet is on WW3, fought in the sandbox (we are already there), involving Iran & Israel, all the major players (Russia, China, etc...) get involved.  Just like Orwell predicted in "1984", the playbook for the bankster "elite".

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:56 | 1765713 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Dead on. WW3 much more profitable. Occasionally I get to talk to young men between 18-26 for more than a few passing minutes. When the discussion turns to joining the military I launch into a low-key tirade and end with, "Don't be their bitch."

That last sentence does more to drive the point home more than anything I said previously.

I am a recruiters worst nightmare when I put my mind to it.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:04 | 1765750 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Keep working it flattrader. I do the same thing when I can. None of these wars are about freedom and all that other patriotic crap. It's all about profits  and who gets a bigger cut of the pie while none of their family members fight.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:08 | 1765775 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.

Gilbert: There is one difference. In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.

Göring: Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:52 | 1765994 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Maybe some of the wounded vets whom have come back without their arms, legs, faces, etc... should do a group photo in just their boxer shorts to be made into a poster to be put up in every high school cafeteria around the United States?  They do it for meth, cigarettes, drunk driving, etc...  How about a little shock and awe for the potential after effects of the "volunteer" army?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:10 | 1766074 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

People should hand out literature (and when I say people, I recognize that "people" could be me) in front of recruiting offices.  Of course you would be called all sort of names, labeled a commie sympathizer or a terrorist sympathizer or...___________.  If you were to create a successful program, enlisting people all over the country to hand out literature in front of recruiting offices, I would imagine that, at some point, you might run into a little bit of trouble.

If I were to do something like this, the only real reason would be so I could at least say I did "something"... but it would be a selfish move that at the end of the day would likely be meaningless.  Maybe not.

 

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:15 | 1766095 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Wouldn't be "meanigless", if you saved a few young lives from being wasted in pointless wars.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:23 | 1766137 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Not to sound too nihilistic, but the few young lives "saved" would still be lost, it just wouldn't be the couple of dudes I steered away.  And when the time comes, the guys I steered away will be drafted anyway.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:27 | 1766379 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

Yeah....there are sooo many other opportunities for the kid coming out of high school who can't afford college....or has a nice job waiting for them at dad's store.....

You arrogant fucks.

The military saves a lot of lives....from a life of ignorance and poverty. 

You arrogant fucks.

Yes....the neocon wars suck.

Yes....the USA is a warmongering fuckstick of a nation.

Some of those kids walking into the recruiter's office have NO OTHER OPTION that doesn't involve crime. 

Those "young lives" you profess to be so concerned about will no other place to go.....I guess some can live with you??

 

Goddamn...the last place I thought I would run into a bunch of pantywaist hippie fucksters would be Zerohedge....this place is going to shit.

You arrogant fucks.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:46 | 1766434 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

The military saves people from a life of ignorance?  WTF?  The military nurtures it.  The military needs it.  Choose another argument, that one is a pure failure.  Perhaps you could posit that ignorance is bliss and therefore the military does the kid a service by filling their brains with mythology and propaganda.  Help them to rally behind the belief that it is better to die for something than live for nothing... even if that something is a bunch of made up bullshit.

Oh, and by the way, fuck you with your name calling.  You don't know me.  You don't know anything about me.  Your name calling is the tell that you've been brainwashed.  "pantywaist hippie fucksters"... that's perfect, and perfectly predictable, as I've already mentioned in this thread.  I'm also most likely a communist, a marxist or a terrorist (or maybe all three, or at the very least, a sympathizer to all three).  Fuck you.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 23:59 | 1768377 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

What he said.   Fuck you and your only choice bullshit.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 15:38 | 1766879 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Doesn't look like you missed out on any of the ignorance.

You are correct in one thing though, ZeroHedge goes to shit each time you post.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 16:35 | 1767053 prains
prains's picture

Silly Wallfarts

 

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:37 | 1766213 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I witnessed an occurrence while standing in line for a burrito a few months back. This young man hobbled in to yell at the woman ahead of me. Apparently, she had taken a handicapped parking spot because the car she was using had a sticker, although she was young and completely able-bodied, as far as I could tell. He told her he took a bullet protecting her freedom and now he couldn't even find a handicapped spot.  He really believed what he said. She never batted an eyelid and just blew him off, obviously not impressed with his heroism, and he went to the end of the line.  I felt badly for the boy, but it was because he had been misled and ill-used by his government and then hurt and cast off, not because I believed his patriotic drivel.  

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