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Guest Post: Big Trouble Brewing

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Chris Martenson

Big Trouble Brewing

I do not toss around the idea of a market crash lightly.  If you've been following me long enough, you know that only in very rare instances do I issue a cautionary Alert (I've only issued four since my website launched in 2008), and I am generally not given to hyperbole.

Let's be clear: I'm not issuing an Alert at this time. But I am concerned that a materially adverse disruption to the financial markets is increasingly likely in the near future.

Perhaps a definition will be helpful as we begin. A 'market crash' is an event where there are no bids to meet a wall of selling. The actual amount of the percentage decline is less important to note than the amount of chaos, or loss of control, that a given market experiences. Some like to say that a market downdraft requires a decline of 10%, or maybe even 15% or 20% (or more), in order to qualify as a 'crash.' For me, the key factor is not so much the amount of the decline, but the pace of the decline.

With perhaps a quadrillion US dollars of hyper-interconnected derivatives outstanding -- that's the notional value, but who really knows what the real number is? -- an orderly market is essential for knowing whether or not the counterparty to one's trade is solvent. During periods of intense price swings in the market, such things are simply not knowable, and spawn the fear and paralysis that really define a market crash.

The Next Market Crash

Like everybody, I have no idea when the next market crash will occur, but I do happen to hold the view that a market crash is on the way. In fact, my view is that the entire future from here onward will be marked by sharp plunges (both crashes and regular market declines), followed by periods of stability, if not apparent recovery.

What I track instead are imbalances and risks. Sort of like being a fire marshal who takes note of an outlet with fifteen things plugged into it, some with frayed cords, located near a pile of old cleaning rags. I can't tell you for sure that a fire will result, only that the odds are elevated. A prudent person will take steps to remedy the situation or at least prepare for the possibility of a fire.

Here's one view of the possible trigger for the next meltdown from Dr. Robert Shapiro, advisor to Presidents Clinton and Obama, and now the IMF, as offered on BBC Newsnight on October 5, 2011:

"If they cannot address this [the sovereign debt crisis in Europe] in a credible way, I believe within perhaps two to three weeks, we will have a meltdown in sovereign debt which will produce a meltdown across the European banking system

We're not just talking about a relatively small Belgian bank, we're talking about the largest banks in the world. The largest banks in Germany, the largest banks in France that will spread to the UK in part through the sovereign debt problems in Ireland. 

It will spread everywhere because the global financial system is so interconnected, all those banks are counterparties to every significant bank in the US and in Britain, and in Japan and around the world. This would be a crisis, in my view, more serious than the crisis in 2008."


What he's warning about here are two main things. The first is the risk of contagion, where problems in one area spread to another because everything is so intertwine. The second is that you can count on the rot spreading from the weaker periphery to the stronger core. Crisis always progresses from the outside in.

That dynamic has been playing out for months, and it should be obvious to the most casual of observers that the Greece situation has not been improved one iota by any of the steps yet taken. 

The stakes could not be higher. Normally staid politicians are letting their guard down and saying previously unthinkable things. For example, this shocker recently came from the Polish finance minister:

Poland warns of war 'in 10 years' as EU leaders scramble to contain panic

Oct 14, 2011

Speaking to MEPs in Strasbourg on Wednesday morning (14 Sept) [the Polish finance minister] warned of the need to act rapidly to prevent grave danger for the EU. Making reference to a recent report entitled 'Euro Break Up - The Consequences' by Swiss financial giant UBS, he declared: "There is no doubt we are in danger. Europe is in danger".

The paper by UBS, normally known for its highly sober analysis, warned that historically, monetary unions do not break up without civil war or some other form of authoritarian reaction. "The risk of civil disorder questions the rule of law, and as such basic issues such as property rights. Even those countries that avoid internal strife and divisions will likely have to use administrative controls to avoid extreme positions in their markets", it said.

The Polish minister went on to warn of a doubling of unemployment within two years "even in the rich countries".

He concluded his comments by recollecting a recent conversation he had with an old friend who is now head of a major bank: "We were talking about the crisis in eurozone. He told me 'You know, after all these political shocks, economic shocks, it is very rare indeed that in the next 10 years we could avoid a war'. A war ladies and gentlemen. I am really thinking about obtaining a green card for my kids in the United States".


I'm not sure whether the US will be a much better place to ride out the storm if the European banking system collapses, as it will be only a matter of time before the US is exposed as being just as financially and fiscally ruined as the EU. 

Supporting this view is a rather famous Harvard economist (and the probable successor for Bernanke's current position, according to some rumors):

Martin Feldstein says there's a "nontrivial" chance the U.S. economy will turn down again and calls the recovery "about as bad an expansion as I've ever seen."

Another downturn here will further expose the fact that there are still towers of tottering debt that can only be serviced by an expansion, and a robust one at that. With this next revelation of systemic weakness, expect more debt defaults, institutional failures, and the same sort of banking weakness seen in Europe to occur in the US.

In short, there's every chance here that an even worse repeat of 2008 could happen at any time. And in my estimation, the chance that this will come in the form of a market crash is too high to ignore.

Right now, with the rot creeping from the outside in, I see those chances as not only high, but rising.

From the Outside In

It can be very difficult to envision what an 'outside in' crisis looks and feels like. In order to get a better feel for the dynamic, we turn to Phoenix, Arizona for an excellent case study.

Once the darling of the housing boom, with endless desert building lots enabling the most egregious sort of bubble sprawl, Phoenix is now in the grips of a horrific housing crash. Like all big adjustments, it appears to those experiencing it to be in slow motion:

Phoenix-area real estate collapse echoed troubles

Oct 9, 2011

A look at metro Phoenix's foreclosure crisis over the past five years shows an economic crash moving through time and space.

The collapse started in new-housing areas on the fringes and then swept inward, hitting more established areas as the unemployment rate climbed. Now, as the stock market struggles and speculation swirls about another recession, foreclosures are flaring in the Valley's luxury-home neighborhoods.


That's a perfect illustration of the 'outside in' dynamic. At the beginning of the bubble's burst, it was almost certainly unthinkable to the inhabitants of the wealthier neighborhoods that they would get swept up in the cataclysm. But they did -- first the weaker and more distant locales, then the middle-strength ones, and then the core.

The article continues:

A new Arizona Republic analysis, which maps out every home in default in the region over the past five years, is the first comprehensive look at the wave of foreclosures that has swept the Valley since the market began its steep decline in 2007.

The analysis, based on data from Phoenix foreclosure-information service AZ Bidder, plots individual foreclosures and overall trends by year.

It shows how the Valley's foreclosure crisis was more than one crisis. Foreclosures arose in waves, driven first by problematic mortgages, then by the job woes of the recession and now by lingering economic effects being felt in expensive neighborhoods.


It wasn't just caused by housing weakness alone, but the way that housing weakness led to job weakness, and how they ended up preying together on confidence in the bubble and ultimately dragging down the local economy.

One more perfect passage from that article that illustrates our point:

As Phoenix's foreclosure crisis crept inward from the fringes during late 2008, it was being driven not just by subprime lending but also by the economy at large.

The state and the nation had fallen into a recession. Hundreds of thousands of jobs, many in the construction industry, were lost in Arizona.

As metro Phoenix's unemployment rate climbed, so did foreclosures. The number of borrowers losing Phoenix-area houses to lenders hit a record in 2009.

Foreclosures began to affect communities closer in, where less speculation and new building had taken place. Chandler, Gilbert and Glendale, as well as central and north Phoenix, began to see foreclosures climb and home values fall.


Similarly, the European debt crisis began in the weakest locales first (Ireland and Greece), then infected the middle countries (Portugal, Italy, and Spain) and now threatens to overrun the core (Germany and France). A wave of sovereign defaults will sweep across the region, progressing from the outside in with a self-sustaining and self-reinforcing dynamic, unless somehow stopped.

That's the important risk to focus on. And whether the crisis is a little one or one that ends in everyone's worst fear -- another war on the Continent -- remains to be seen. But the probability of an approaching market calamity is non-trivial. So that brings us to the main insight we are trying to convey here: We need to be prepared for a major market clearing event that finally allows the rot to be cleared from the system. 

Progressive Failure

The problem in Europe is very far from resolved at this point, the recent happy noises about Belgium nationalizing part of Dexia bank notwithstanding. As an aside on that matter, I found this to be quite interesting:

Belgium nationalizes part of Dexia bank for $5.4B

Oct 10, 2011

The Belgian state will buy the national subsidiary of embattled bank Dexia for euro4 billion ($5.4 billion) and provide tens of billions of euros in new guarantees as part of a wider bailout of the lender, the first victim of a new squeeze in European credit markets.

On top of the nationalization, the governments of Belgium, France and Luxembourg together will provide an additional euro90 billion ($121 billion) in funding guarantees for the bank for up to 10 years.

Belgium will provide 60.5 percent of these guarantees, 36.5 percent will come from France and the remaining 3 percent from Luxembourg.


This means Belgium is potentially on the hook for $78.6 billion in bailout funds for a single institution, which amounts to 17% of GDP (2010 figure). To put this into perspective for our US readers, that would be the equivalent of the USA guaranteeing $2.6 trillion...for a single bank. Anybody care to guess whether the amount that they decided to guarantee will be ultimately sufficient to cover the actual amount of the total potential losses? My guess is that over time the number will prove to be far, far below the final and true cost.

Even if the Dexia situation has been temporarily stabilized, Greece has not, and this is where the Europe story really begins. With Greek ten-year notes over 24%, two-year notes of 75%, and one-year notes over 150%, there is virtually no chance of anything happening other than a Greek default.

A writedown of Greek debt is inevitable here; the only question is, how much? Here's the current view:

Europe Divided on Greek Writedowns That Juncker Says May Top 60%

Oct 11, 2011

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Europe’s debt crisis now threatens the region’s financial system as officials race to put together a new plan to end the turmoil.

“The crisis has reached a systemic dimension,” Trichet told lawmakers in Brussels today in his capacity as head of the European Systemic Risk Board. “Sovereign stress has moved from smaller economies to some of the larger countries. The crisis is systemic and must be tackled decisively.”

European leaders are trying to shore up the region’s banks as they debate how best to manage the fallout from any Greek default. Governments yesterday pushed back a summit amid opposition to Germany’s drive for deeper-than-planned Greek bond writedowns that Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker says may exceed 60 percent.

 “Time is always of the essence when you have to be in a mode of crisis management,” said Trichet.


A 'writedown' is just another of many more pleasant-sounding terms that are being used instead of 'default,' which is precisely what Greece will soon be doing.

With the triggering of a default, the fear of contagion will spread, because, frankly, nobody really knows where the time bombs are located in the credit default swap (CDS derivative) markets. Sure, we can know roughly who is holding what, but each of these holdings is then linked to the primary institutions' own credit ratings, which themselves have vast piles of CDS paper attached to them. In other words, everything is so interconnected that it's nearly impossible for anyone, even the owners of these derivatives, to conduct an accurate risk-assessment or predict how they're going to behave during a market dislocation.

These in turn are held by other institutions and funds, which are heavily leveraged and exposed to the very same market forces that will assure that the exact opposite of hedging will erupt during the hairiest part of the coming rout.

For perspective, Greece has nearly 330 billion euros ($445 billion) of debt outstanding, on top of which CDS paper has been layered. That is, if Greek debt gets a 60% haircut, the basement-level losses we can expect as a result are $270 billion, but the CDS paper will certainly amplify that number much higher for some unlucky institutions.

For even more perspective, consider that Spain and Italy have nearly $3.4 trillion in debt, making their combined predicament worth about 7.5 Greek dramas.

If you think the big banks represent the smart money, I would remind you that when the subprime CDS disaster finally blew up, it was the big banks (and AIG) that were holding the bag -- supposedly the smartest of the smart money. I somehow doubt they are going to be any smarter this time.

The contagion fear here is that several mega banks (and/or funds) will fail as a result of these cross-correlated and therefore unhedged bets. When the European Banking Authority ran their stress tests a while back, several very large banks in Spain and France barely passed, and that was without booking any losses on any of their outstanding loans to Greece, Ireland, or Portugal. If one tips over, so will the rest, because they all owe each other. 

To simplify, here's a picture of the world banking system as it currently stands:

Another form of contagion will come with the thought that if one major Western economy can default, others can, too. A precedent will have been set, and other over-indebted economies will suffer higher interest rates on their borrowing as a result. The thing about higher interest rates is that once they are past a certain level, they become self-fulfilling prophecies, virtually assuring that default is a mathematical inevitability (see Greece, above). Over the long haul, interest rates over the long haul cannot be higher than the nominal rate of GDP growth, generally speaking. In today's low-growth environment, that is a low bar, indeed; perhaps just 2%-3%. 

A final concern for European banks (in particular) concerns bank runs, in which institutional and retail depositors decide to flee a given bank, causing it to topple over, as the first domino in a long line. 

The bottom line here is that the European situation is quite far from resolved, and as we've been saying all along, it really can't until large losses are taken by someone. For now, the banks are trying desperately to convince the world that the losses should be shared by everyone through the miracle of inflation (with central banks printing money, a.k.a. "quantitative easing" or QE, to buy the bad debts off the banks) while the people of various countries are increasingly protesting this regrettable practice of socializing banks' losses, yet allowing privatized profits. 

Expect Volatility

The key point to understand about our economy is that it is anything but straightforward and linear. It is a complex system, meaning that it has two characteristics of which we should be aware: It requires energy to maintain and/or increase its complexity, and it is unpredictable. 

One typical feature of complex systems is that they tend to jump rather abruptly from one state to the next. Where they can exist in some sort of seeming equilibrium for quite a while, a sufficient exogenous shock (or a change in conditions, such as becoming energy-starved) can often cause them to transition rather suddenly to the next point of 'equilibrium'.

Said more simply, systems often have tipping points, where they no longer react to insults proportionally, but chaotically and sometimes violently. Phoenix, Arizona was coasting along just fine until experiencing a tipping point in its housing market that involved both the job market and the broader economy, dragging both down on the way to finding a new and much lower equilibrium point.

Focus on Positioning Yourself Prudently

What we have here is an ideal set of conditions for a tipping point to arise in our financial system. When such a tipping point occurs, you should expect wild volatility in the markets and be prepared for things to be moving far too quickly to react to with any sort of precision or grace.

That's why it's best to be pre-positioned in your financial, physical, and emotional preparations, so that when the next bout of extreme volatility exerts itself, little to no immediate action is needed on your part during the tumult.

Ride out the chaos in safety and confidence. Be a support to those less prepared within your family and community. And take advantage of the luxury few will have to plan your next steps carefully, once the corrective forces clear much of the current uncertainty out of the markets. Doing so will set you up better than most to prosper in the aftermath.

In Part II - What to Do Before the Next Crash, we detail the steps you should be taking now to secure yourself in advance of the market dislocation predicted above, including:

  • protecting the purchasing power of your assets
  • securing the essentials (water, food, heat, etc.) in case system shocks disrupt supply chains for a period of time
  • developing sufficient physical and emotional fitness to deal with whatever change the future may bring

Click here to read Part II of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access).


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Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:01 | 1765402 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

TURD 2012

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:03 | 1765419 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

This is all bullish...Full Green Ahead!!!!

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:11 | 1765463 ratso
ratso's picture

Oh great, another prediction that the sky is falling.  Buy water, food, gold and dig a hole in the ground.

Just what I needed this moring - THE SKY IS GOING TO FALL _ watch out.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:18 | 1765519 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

I tried watching the video and got discouraged as soon as I heard he was a professor, then when he said the recession ended in mid 09, I exited!

Total watching time less then 10 sec.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:37 | 1765614 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Since Chris needs to Pussyfoot, let me say it.

Very high liklihood of a huge downturn in the market next week. Black Monday, Tuesday or some such. The news will flash on Saturday, 15th. Good to pay attention.

Everything down, a risk off like not seen in a long time. PM's too. It's been hinted at variously, astrologically included. Clif High also has that date (10/15) as a big move day.

Hedge accordingly. I am.


The Perversion of Language

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:56 | 1765626 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"...and I am generally not given to hyperbole"

Dude. That's why we COME HERE!" ;)



"Belgium is potentially on the hook for $78.6 billion in bailout funds for a single institution, which amounts to 17% of GDP (2010 figure). To put this into perspective for our US readers, that would be the equivalent of the USA guaranteeing $2.6 trillion..."

Don't spoil the surprise....

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:05 | 1765747 rocker
rocker's picture

During the debates last time Bloomberg asked about the next financial crisis. Bloomberg did not get a commit back abourt it.

Bloomberg said U.S. Banks have 700 Billion in exposure to the European Banking System.

Believe this. Bloomberg knows. They have the best access to world economies than some countries themselves have.

Gosh, I would love to have a Bloomberg terminal or access. 

Don't Buy Stocks:  U.S. Banks have 700 Billion in exposure.  It is a crisis just waiting for a trigger.

Pimco keeps saying, everybody will get a opportunity to buy stocks cheaper in the near future.

The bond market King understands the markets too.  They see the CDS spreads.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:19 | 1765825 J 457
J 457's picture

Many people simply will not BTFD until Greece/EU implodes.  THAT will be my buy signal, starting around 1020 range down to 940.  Until then, why buy when you know any day your "investment" will drop 15-25%, as just happened last week.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:23 | 1766099 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture


Why listen to Feldstein - he didn't call the first crash.


We have a very simple debt bubble that has been created by central banks worldwide over 15 years and is now collapsing.  QE and QEII treated the symptoms and made everyone chat about recovery.  And now after QEII we can see that the disease is still there.


There is no "double dip".  The bubble collapse continues and will continue until we deal with the central problems - the massive debt and unstable fiat money.


Data on the bubble collapse:



Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:29 | 1766171 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

good post, but I would suggest the leveraging started more like 40 years ago, not 15.  While the curve has become steep over the past 15 years, the first 25 years had to "come first".

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:42 | 1766231 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture





True enough.  The ramp over the past 15 years was the blow-off phase. 


Where the hell was Feldstein as total US debt grew to 375% of GDP?


Perhaps some answers here:

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:34 | 1766203 Darth..Putter
Darth..Putter's picture

You just guaranteed that the range will be 750 down to 540

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:49 | 1766265 Fox Moulder
Fox Moulder's picture

The (illegal) Treasury Dept guarantee on Fannie and Freddie alone is worth over $5 trillion.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:00 | 1765731 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

so if everything is down, what's the hedge?  Cash until QE3 (because everything down will certainly bring on QE3) then everything back into ____________ (what, PM's).  But at some point a crash takes out cash, I would think.  But not yet.  Likely not even close to that yet.  But what do I know.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:09 | 1765779 machineh
machineh's picture

'Clif High also has that date (10/15) as a big move day.'

Clif High -- ain't he just the doormat for Wile E. Coyote?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:21 | 1765839 vato poco
vato poco's picture

"Astrologically included"?

Yeah, the augers & Oracle bones here are making dire warnings, as well. "A great empire will fall someday." Can't get any clearer than THAT!

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:28 | 1765871 vato poco
vato poco's picture

OTOH, I gotta give you credit, ORI. You made a very specific prediction for a very specific timeframe that's less than a week from now. Even if I'm a little snarky as to your prediction methodology, that takes balls. If you turn out to be right - and we'll know very soon - I'll be the first to stand up in the public square at noon and eat crow & sing your praises.

Regards, Vato

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:45 | 1765958 Jeff Lebowski
Jeff Lebowski's picture

Credit on the prediction with specifics to ORI as well....  But believe this isn't the first such prediction (with similar methodology).

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:33 | 1765897 trav7777
trav7777's picture

so if this doesn't happen, are you going to leave ZH or at least refrain from spamming or making any future predictions?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:10 | 1766332 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

And if it does.... will you take a large silver fork and jam it into your eye??

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:33 | 1765907 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

You're being sarcastic, right? Astrologically? You mean the Mayan priests and/or Nostradamus looked into the future and forsaw the precise date of Oct 15, 2011 as a stock market crash. I have become bored with "impending crash" predictions. Will you come back on Monday and explain why you were wrong?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:52 | 1765917 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

ori's astrology calls are deadlier than a pickled egg fart in coach

edit:  his call for the UDSX plunging below 73 way back when was as bad as most of mine (and it predicted the bounce there, too),...but he didn't use his charts, i don't think, and was just waxing choatic, perhaps

but when he top-called the markets with his mercury retrograde i had to give him credit for-soothing an awesome interplay of planetary tensions in stocks

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:38 | 1765926 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Cliff High...LOL LOL LOL

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:42 | 1765945 pre
pre's picture

Privately, I've been telling my family and friends that this would go down soon.  I've referred many to Chris' website for the 'crash course' as well.

About 6 months ago, I *half*-jokingly told my wife that "the event" would occur on Oct 15th, 2011.  I think we're close, but as the old adage goes, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."  Plan accordingly.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:49 | 1765977 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Isn't Oct 15, 2011 the real date that the Mayan calendar ended but they fucked up the math and erroneously came up with Dec 21, 2012?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:01 | 1766036 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Yeah... I think I've read that.  But the Mayan's weren't big college football fans... likely didn't understand that Oct 15, 2011 would fall on a Saturday.  I think we're good.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 16:31 | 1767040 prains
prains's picture

Isn't Oct 15, 2011 the real date that the Mayan calendar ended but they fucked up the math and erroneously came up with Dec 21, 2012?


jeez, and here i thought it was the Bolivian calendar that was causing all the problems, thanks for clearing that up

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:46 | 1765966 ArgentDawn
ArgentDawn's picture

"Anyone can be a millionaire, but to become a billionaire you need an astrologer."

JP Morgan

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:43 | 1766428 AGuy
AGuy's picture

...Or a Ben Bernanke in your Pocket!


Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:14 | 1766091 nantucket
nantucket's picture

what "market"? (us equity, europe equity, us fixed income, corporates, treasuries, soveriegn debt, EM's, etc, etc).

what precenatge probability is "very high", 30%, 50%, 80%?

what qualifies as "huge"?, 10%, 25%, 50%? 

you left a TON of open ends there.  please quantify.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 16:34 | 1767050 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Steep. And perhaps, regardless of location, cash will be king...for a month or so anyway.

Hope that helps. It's just an in-sight.


Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:13 | 1765798 macholatte
macholatte's picture


Like everybody, I have no idea when the next market crash will occur, but I do happen to hold the view that a market crash is on the way. In fact, my view is that the entire future from here onward will be marked by sharp plunges (both crashes and regular market declines), followed by periods of stability, if not apparent recovery.


Can I get a news letter if I say "The market will definately go down, but if it doesn't, then it will go up, but then it will go down and then up again and the cycle will repeat. Nobody is sure exactly when that will happen but experts are in agreement that it will at some point in the future." WTF!


A child of five would understand this. Send someone to fetch a child of five.
Groucho Marx

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:22 | 1766129 nantucket
nantucket's picture


agree with you, masters of vagueness, obfuscation, and generalizations.  but to stay alive in the investment leter business I think you need to be be vauge ex ante then ex post any event you can point to your prescient call and make yourself look more credible by "admitting" the event wasn't a lock, but you had a "gut feel" it could occur....all the while ignoring the 5 or 6 other events that you had a gut feel about but never came to pass. 

I can get the roll of a die called perfect every time...I think it's gonna be a round, non-negative number between 1 and 6.  I'm a genius!

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:16 | 1766349 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

The problem with the economic prediction business is that the economy is driven more by the self interest of key actors than it is by clear economic data. A perfect example came to light as a result of the Fed audit. $16 trillion was loaned to US and international banks directly from the Fed, and most has not been paid back. These monies are not counted in the money supply, but there are probably strings attached to the money, requiring some investment in treasuries. The assets make the bank look solvent, and allow for financing of government debt, inflating the money supply over time. So things look like X, but Y is happening behind the scenes. I pulled that out of thin air, but it makes sense to me. Someone with a clue please tell me how this $16 trillion will be excluded from the bond markets, and elaborate on what will happen to it.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:58 | 1766019 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

I am a subscriber of Chris's and have watched the crash course a number of times. If you haven't you should. Mandatory material for crash preparation.

He isn't fooled about the recession not ending. He is one of the sound sage voices. And why risk credibilty declaring a date next week? I thought the game would have been over long ago but it is amazing what trillions of extend and pretend dollars can do.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:04 | 1766050 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

Pladizow; I had a similar response and quickly hit the stop button.


Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:40 | 1765639 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Economic collapse or WW3?  Which will work out better for the banksters?  If you can answer that question, you will know the future. Politicians are irrelevant at this point (plus they are just bankster puppets).  Protests are just a sideshow to entertain people and provide video to fill the space between commercials. 

I don't see how complete collapse of the system into some sort of Mad Max, martial law, looting and burning situation benefits the banksters (except maybe to cover their tracks as they head to Paraguay?).  WW3 is much more profitable, puts many people to work fighting the "enemy", brings the most of the country together to fight the enemies of America. We would still get food and gas rationing, bank holidays, gold and silver confiscation (for the war effort) and all the other collapse like restrictions, but they would be doing it all to us in the name of patriotic duty.

My bet is on WW3, fought in the sandbox (we are already there), involving Iran & Israel, all the major players (Russia, China, etc...) get involved.  Just like Orwell predicted in "1984", the playbook for the bankster "elite".

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:56 | 1765713 flattrader
flattrader's picture

Dead on. WW3 much more profitable. Occasionally I get to talk to young men between 18-26 for more than a few passing minutes. When the discussion turns to joining the military I launch into a low-key tirade and end with, "Don't be their bitch."

That last sentence does more to drive the point home more than anything I said previously.

I am a recruiters worst nightmare when I put my mind to it.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:04 | 1765750 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Keep working it flattrader. I do the same thing when I can. None of these wars are about freedom and all that other patriotic crap. It's all about profits  and who gets a bigger cut of the pie while none of their family members fight.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:08 | 1765775 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece. Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship.

Gilbert: There is one difference. In a democracy, the people have some say in the matter through their elected representatives, and in the United States only Congress can declare wars.

Göring: Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:52 | 1765994 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Maybe some of the wounded vets whom have come back without their arms, legs, faces, etc... should do a group photo in just their boxer shorts to be made into a poster to be put up in every high school cafeteria around the United States?  They do it for meth, cigarettes, drunk driving, etc...  How about a little shock and awe for the potential after effects of the "volunteer" army?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:10 | 1766074 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

People should hand out literature (and when I say people, I recognize that "people" could be me) in front of recruiting offices.  Of course you would be called all sort of names, labeled a commie sympathizer or a terrorist sympathizer or...___________.  If you were to create a successful program, enlisting people all over the country to hand out literature in front of recruiting offices, I would imagine that, at some point, you might run into a little bit of trouble.

If I were to do something like this, the only real reason would be so I could at least say I did "something"... but it would be a selfish move that at the end of the day would likely be meaningless.  Maybe not.


Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:15 | 1766095 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Wouldn't be "meanigless", if you saved a few young lives from being wasted in pointless wars.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:23 | 1766137 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Not to sound too nihilistic, but the few young lives "saved" would still be lost, it just wouldn't be the couple of dudes I steered away.  And when the time comes, the guys I steered away will be drafted anyway.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:27 | 1766379 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

Yeah....there are sooo many other opportunities for the kid coming out of high school who can't afford college....or has a nice job waiting for them at dad's store.....

You arrogant fucks.

The military saves a lot of lives....from a life of ignorance and poverty. 

You arrogant fucks.

Yes....the neocon wars suck.

Yes....the USA is a warmongering fuckstick of a nation.

Some of those kids walking into the recruiter's office have NO OTHER OPTION that doesn't involve crime. 

Those "young lives" you profess to be so concerned about will no other place to go.....I guess some can live with you??


Goddamn...the last place I thought I would run into a bunch of pantywaist hippie fucksters would be Zerohedge....this place is going to shit.

You arrogant fucks.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:46 | 1766434 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

The military saves people from a life of ignorance?  WTF?  The military nurtures it.  The military needs it.  Choose another argument, that one is a pure failure.  Perhaps you could posit that ignorance is bliss and therefore the military does the kid a service by filling their brains with mythology and propaganda.  Help them to rally behind the belief that it is better to die for something than live for nothing... even if that something is a bunch of made up bullshit.

Oh, and by the way, fuck you with your name calling.  You don't know me.  You don't know anything about me.  Your name calling is the tell that you've been brainwashed.  "pantywaist hippie fucksters"... that's perfect, and perfectly predictable, as I've already mentioned in this thread.  I'm also most likely a communist, a marxist or a terrorist (or maybe all three, or at the very least, a sympathizer to all three).  Fuck you.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 23:59 | 1768377 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

What he said.   Fuck you and your only choice bullshit.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 15:38 | 1766879 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Doesn't look like you missed out on any of the ignorance.

You are correct in one thing though, ZeroHedge goes to shit each time you post.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 16:35 | 1767053 prains
prains's picture

Silly Wallfarts


Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:37 | 1766213 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I witnessed an occurrence while standing in line for a burrito a few months back. This young man hobbled in to yell at the woman ahead of me. Apparently, she had taken a handicapped parking spot because the car she was using had a sticker, although she was young and completely able-bodied, as far as I could tell. He told her he took a bullet protecting her freedom and now he couldn't even find a handicapped spot.  He really believed what he said. She never batted an eyelid and just blew him off, obviously not impressed with his heroism, and he went to the end of the line.  I felt badly for the boy, but it was because he had been misled and ill-used by his government and then hurt and cast off, not because I believed his patriotic drivel.  

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:32 | 1766400 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

So a disabled guy got pissed at a young able bodied women for using handicapped parking when she obviously had no need.....

and it is his fault that he was disabled....

You felt so badly you watched him hobble to the back of the line while you stood in place .....right??

You arrogant fuck.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 14:01 | 1766486 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

I'm pretty sure he told you why he felt badly.  He felt badly because the guy was spewing a bunch of bullshit he had been told... and that the guy believed it.  He believed he took a bullet for her freedom.  That's bullshit.  It's totally fabricated bullshit.

I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class thug for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902–1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.  - Smedley Butler, Marine Corps Major General.

You think this racket has changed?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 18:01 | 1767241 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Shirley Walfahrt, I am an old lady (old ladies still like burritos).  Even my grandchildren are grown up.  I am at an age where not so very long ago, men would have given up their place to me in deference to my age and sex (times have indeed changed).  I WAS the end of the line.  I didn't feel that the small benefit he would acrue if I were to give him my place would serve anyone well, as the young woman he berated was right in front of me.  I kept my position and served as buffer.  The young woman he was with should have had him sit down while she got their meals.  I can only assume he stood by choice. 

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:06 | 1765761 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

collapse first and then war.  Why do you think we've been "provoking" the chinese.  Of course, they want it too.  Time to cull the herd.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:16 | 1765783 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

They sell it to kids like it's going to be a video game, or they use the financial leverage of high unemployment, college paid for, signing bonus for new car, etc....  Some go for the gung ho, flag waving, kick terrorist's ass crap that the media and politicians feed them, but most do it for the lack of alternatives. I like the "don't be their bitch", should be a bumper sticker handed out in front of recruiters tables and offices.

Soon they will create an incident (like yesterday's false flag, Iran terror plot) to escalate the wars there.  I think they will have to come up with a big one to fool Americans at this point.  Maybe a "dirty" bomb that goes off in the middle of nowhere on it's way to NYC or DC traced to Al Qaeda and Iran (the new boogyman)?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:25 | 1765848 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Had he and I but met
    By some old ancient inn,
We should have set us down to wet
    Right many a nipperkin! 

    But ranged as infantry,
    And staring face to face,
I shot at him as he at me,
    And killed him in his place. 

    I shot him dead because—
    Because he was my foe,
Just so: my foe of course he was;
    That's clear enough; although 

    He thought he'd enlist, perhaps,
    Off-hand like—just as I—
Was out of work—had sold his traps—
    No other reason why. 

    Yes; quaint and curious war is!
    You shoot a fellow down
You'd treat, if met where any bar is,
    Or help to half a crown.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:42 | 1765944 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

What's a nipperkin?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 14:00 | 1766481 Crumbles
Crumbles's picture

A small cup, just right size for tilting quite a few over the course of several hours of good conversation in a tavern.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 19:33 | 1767755 Rhodin
Rhodin's picture

A small container or cup for liquor, in the same way a small bottle of liquor is a "nip".  Today's nearest cousins would be a shot glass or a sake cup.  Some say, earlier, it was a small official unit of liquid measure, old enough that they disagree on the modern equivalent amount, between 1/2 to 2oz.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:42 | 1765941 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Chicago.  Gotta make the fly over country to feel like they've got skin in the game.  Strong mayor, willing to break rules in the aftermath.  Or... coordinated attacks throughout rural america... maybe in conjunction with one or two big city events.  Either way, the grand false flag needs to be something that resonates in "the heartland".  My silly opinion.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:16 | 1766042 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Chicago is too big.  It has to be a failed attempt (see shoe bomber, underwear bomber, times square bomber, Iran/Mexican drug cartel, etc....). Which means it could explode somewhere in the US, but out in the middle of nowhere on it's way to somewhere big.  Maybe pieces of the bomb would have "Made in Iran" stamped on them?  Evacuate Des Monies, IA to protect the population from the "fallout".   This is the kind of crap they pull to start the wars, always have, always will.  Until Americans are so brain dead and numb that they won't even need the excuse.  They will just believe whatever comes over the big screen during the emergency broadcast at halftime of Monday Night Football.  CGA images will be enough as long as they are in HD, 3D and involve evil, dark skinned people.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:37 | 1766415 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

I think they'll go another route, exploiting the willingness of young blacks to loot and beat people, which will blow up into riots. This past summer saw scores (if not hundreds) of incidents of mob violence and racial attacks - whites being targeted for being white, in public parks, beaches, state fairs, etc. These kids think they have nothing to lose. They're wrong, but what they have is not soul-sustaining, so it rankles. Generally speaking they have no skills and make no contribution to society - indeed, they are a considerable net drain. Yet their bellies are usually full and they do what they like, living day to day on the labors of others. Their minds have been poisoned, not against the scum who have helped them to where they are, but against their fellow citizens. How do these people fit into a functioning society? They really don't. Many aren't able to communicate effectively with most Americans, much less civilly. TPTB are eugenecists; they'd rather destroy this population than help sculpt a society where these kids think they have a future. If you think TPTB care about black people, they do - but only insofar as they can use them as a blunt instrument against the rest of the population.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:14 | 1766343 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

Good work flattrader - I have told my wife that we will disappear from the United States quicker than a fart in the wind, at the first sign of the implementation of a military draft. I will be too old, but my son will "be their bitch" only over my dead body.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:07 | 1766060 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

amazing math, data, and historical examples in that one ratso

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:14 | 1766344 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

The sky has already fallen.  It's called "the atmosphere", gasses -- predominately nitrogen and oxygen -- that are held in their place near to the surface of the earth by gravity.  I find the effect to be bearable.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 14:21 | 1766569 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

"Martin Feldstein says there's a "nontrivial" chance the U.S. economy will turn down again.."

Oh, wow, the "legendary" Martin Feldstein, a director at HCA when they gave us the largest out-of-court settlement in government-levied fines for their gargantuan Medicare/Medicaid fraud!

Oh, wow, the "legendary" Martin Feldstein, a director at Eli Lily when they were forced to pay the most expensive criminal penalties in American history for marketing drugs under knowingly false pretenses (and people died as a result).

Oh, wow, the "legendary" Martin Feldstein, a director at AIG's Financial Products Group, when they were responsible for the largest insurance swindle in human history (selling $486 billion in CDSes with nary a dollar to back them up).

Yup, I'd believe anything ole Marty is pushing........

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 19:20 | 1767717 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

You've earned a pretty healthy pile of negatives with this post.

Here's a data point: The local UPS driver with 30 years seniority is driving until 9PM every day to finish the delivery route. UPS laid off 32% of its employees. He said they (drivers) are lost as what to do and what will happen. That's a majjor chunk of the US economy testifying about current conditions.

Your dis remarks post is excusable to a point of very weak humor. You need to post a positive action or informative statement here; no one needs more theatirics of stupidity. Washington, DC  gives all we can deal with.

Mr Steve

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:31 | 1766194 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Took profit today @12.05 in the S&P; on a price order; for $50,000 on two contracts purchased at 11.05. The original purchase was published here, date and time. Thanks for your shorts and puts; you've been very helpful. Still making money on BAC; of course.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 11:10 | 1769532 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

In reality, it's $32,500.  Don't forget those pesky taxes on short-term capital gains.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:06 | 1765435 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

My platform (the 6-6-6 plan)


1) End the Fed

2) Legalize football wagering

3) End the Fed

4) Legalize weed

5) End the Fed

6) Legalize prostitution


Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:07 | 1765448 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

It should be noted that Turd owns gold. Physical I believe.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:13 | 1765482 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

And it should also be noted that Turd wishes he had much, much more, too.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:15 | 1765495 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Half your wish list is available now; just move to Nevada.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:02 | 1765738 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Did I read that right..., the Turd is longing for a prostitute?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:42 | 1765646 repete
repete's picture

I should be noted that Turd is a weed smoking prostitute!

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:51 | 1765991 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Apparently Turd is a Fed hating, Football betting, weed smoking, prostitute lover.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:06 | 1766059 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Ah yes. The pure clear and clean thinking of a libertarian. All we want is to be happy and be able to pay someone to make me happy, if they chose, through the fruits of their labor or the labor of their fruits.

Ah, gotta love mellons.

Thu, 10/13/2011 - 01:15 | 1768510 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

Apparently Turd is a Fed hating, Football betting, weed smoking, prostitute lover.

. . . who is also fond of discreet Bible quotes on the bottom of his blog post page (Lk 12:22-34), and remains unconvinced that 911 was an inside job, among many other contradictions.

Turd's "main street" fans should head on over & see what he's interested in today.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:14 | 1765484 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

7) Repeal the minimum wage.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:00 | 1765720 Gadfly
Gadfly's picture

Right... so we can all make 5 dollars a day like the Chinese.  Race to the bottom baby!  A capitalist's wet dream.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:40 | 1765934 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Look at youth/minority unemployment rates.  There is an entire generation that are unemployed and becoming unemployable.

If the minimum wage is such a great idea, why not declare it at $50 an hour and make everybody right financially?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:29 | 1766174 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

We have a tool for the corporations folks.  Stands up and declares he is one of them.  Thanks for letting us know, now tell your neighbors.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:44 | 1766430 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

Henry's right, government has no business dictating wages. Employment would boom, and it will be generally understood that this is aimed a low-skilled workers, it probably wouldn't result in a downward cascade of higher wages. If it does, that's the market speaking. If they can find someone else to do your job for half the price, that is what your labor is worth.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 14:31 | 1766603 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

There are millions of illegal immigrants being paid much less than the minimum wage.


Let's just see of the "entire generation that are unemployed" are willing to do that work.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 14:42 | 1766642 krispkritter
Wed, 10/12/2011 - 19:51 | 1767796 Rhodin
Rhodin's picture

$5 a day could be on the upside, after the "Will work for food" stage! 

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:14 | 1765491 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Do you have a position on firearms? Just curious

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:20 | 1765536 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I prefer to be behind them.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:25 | 1765560 DOT
DOT's picture

 I am definitely behind  firearms.  ;)

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:07 | 1765767 J U D G E M E N T
J U D G E M E N T's picture

yes. Stand behind the open end...

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:55 | 1766008 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Long firearms... like rifles...

Browning BAR .308 ... Hand guns are for amateurs...

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:18 | 1766358 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

The M1918 BAR was chambered for Springfield 30-06 cartridge.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:41 | 1766424 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Handguns are for close-quarters and back-up.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:31 | 1766192 DaddyO
DaddyO's picture



Just remember, incoming fire always has the right of way!!


Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:19 | 1765526 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

7) Legalise polygamy. Every man is allowed to have more than 1 wife. :)

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:26 | 1765571 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Now there's a crime that carries it's own punishment with it.  Know the chinese symbol for discord?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:31 | 1765594 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Rent for the weekend.  Don't buy.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:32 | 1765596 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

No shit.  I figure his menstruation shed will be packed full before too long.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:43 | 1765950 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

I knew a guy who lived together with his two wives (technically wife and girlfriend).  He said it is not as great as it sounds.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 14:17 | 1766557 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Arabs claim minimum is four.  Two fight all the time, three form two against one alliances, four provides the proper balance and also provides for their owner adequately in case one needs to be made redundant.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:28 | 1765573 john39
john39's picture

some might suggest that is a recipe for total misery... for the husband.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:31 | 1765593 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

In most cases one is too many.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:34 | 1765607 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Pipped at the post. Congrats.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:33 | 1765600 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Bigamy, Polygamy, Monogamy. They are all essentially the same: One wife too many. 


As for the article, preaching to the choir bro. 

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:34 | 1765604 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

You obviously haven't been with a FOB Asian woman..

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:52 | 1765698 DosZap
DosZap's picture


You obviously haven't been with a FOB Asian woman..


Just don't bring them to the USA,they turn into Pod People.

Same w/ Soviet bloc babes.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:32 | 1765890 vato poco
vato poco's picture

Daddy always said, "If it floats, flies, or fucks, rent it don't buy it." Paging Mr. for Mr. Eldrick Woods.....

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:57 | 1766465 prains
prains's picture

You can have mine, free of charge

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:31 | 1765595 viv_savage
viv_savage's picture

I'll vote for a turd! Then again, that's not saying much. Nevermind.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:46 | 1765667 madbomber
madbomber's picture

sadly so unrealistic



Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:09 | 1766065 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

but if you legalize prostitution then you can't end the fed 

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 14:21 | 1766568 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Not necessarily.  It depends on the definition of prostitution, fuckee and fuckor.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:21 | 1766113 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

5) End the Fed

6) Legalize prostitution

Make up your mind.

<oops, sorry DJ>

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:17 | 1765508 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Currently +6 to -4

Turd gets a 60% approval rating!!!

Sure vote against me if you want but I'm quite confident that I could do a much better job than any of the worthless sacks of shit currently interviewing for the job.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:19 | 1765530 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Look again, unfortunately you can't polish a turd!

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:43 | 1765651 Matto
Matto's picture

No, but you can roll it in glitter.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:21 | 1765836 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Everyone should write-in turd ferguson on voting day. IT would be a hoot.

As far as trouble brewing. Hmmm, when was it not brewing since 2006. IT all still sucks and gets suckier. No one fixed anything.

A crash is expected, but the short retailers must be beaten down, so the next big rally can begin so that the insolvent banks can recapitalize.

Was I the only one that saw wellsfucko buy a shitload of stock in mar 2009? I'm looking for that same repeat. It will continue to work, until it doesn't.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:21 | 1765840 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

If Zaphod Beeblebrox doesn't get the nomination I will throw all my suppourt behind Turd.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:03 | 1765421 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

No Alert? Just a plan for an Alert?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:04 | 1765429 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

yes, it's a code beige.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:14 | 1765489 RSloane
RSloane's picture


Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:03 | 1765423 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

You know what, if Europe gets bailed out (like I think it will), there's a lot of new money coming into the world economy and optimism.  Since everything seems to be operating in reverse right now, I wouldn't be surprised if we have a solid market rally into the end of the year.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:19 | 1765525 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Followed by....? 

If the market is propped up only be continued transfusions of digital fiat, then we will simply cycle X more times until critical mass of the debt-serviced-by-debased-currencies topples over.  At that point, the "returns" exhibited by for-profit entities will be exposed for the levitated values they are, and the melt-up goes mainstream.

I think the biggest reason the well-reasoned calls for crashes, melt-ups, collapses, etc. are dismissed is because the calls imply imminence.  Eventually, they will be right, but it is difficult to know how many statist placebos the sheep will get high on before reality takes hold.  I know we're closer every day, but I don't know if it is a few months or a few years from metastacizing.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:25 | 1765568 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea more imaginary worthless money will fix things, LOL.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:34 | 1765603 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

We should allow everyone to print their own money. Think of how much this would save the government in printing costs.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:47 | 1766253 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Haaha! Then HP stocks would look like AAPL!



Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:48 | 1766438 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

Great idea! Those backed by metal will find users.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 14:04 | 1766500 Ponzi Unit
Ponzi Unit's picture

I put all my money in a tungsten mine.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:48 | 1765638 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Agreed, but what the article reads and Tyler is trying to convey is that Bailouts are not a Bullish signal, it's detrimental over time because the "box" is getting smaller and smaller and the risk is getting higher and larger, ie Bailout sizes.

 Just look at the broken seismic looking charts, Volitility will be the name of the game from here on out and become void of stability, These Bi-Polar whip saw swings need only one catylist to take down the house so-to-speak with a market turning bidless say an event overseas or SS going tit's up.

 I get it. I can literally see it when the appitite for risk pushes away from the table.

Granted, there is still alot of cash to be made in volitility, but one bad  counter swing overseas can kabosh the risk on or off trader when or if it does go bidless. My 2c. It's a synthetic market that thrives on preception, greed and fear with no true value, those days waived bye bye a long time ago.

Just my opinion.


Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:50 | 1765687 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

No, no - we're gonna see QE for Europe - what happened in the US with QE1 & QE2?  The money's gonna slop over to our shores.  

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:04 | 1765427 falak pema
falak pema's picture

cauldron bubble..toil and trouble.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:04 | 1765428 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

hmmm  is an alert about an alert anything like a plan for a plan?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:05 | 1765430 Clam McCain
Clam McCain's picture

put on a helmet bitchez


Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:06 | 1765437 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

PrimeX will be a bitch, don't need Martenson to know that.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:08 | 1765451 optimator
optimator's picture

I also can predict the future just like this guy.  I know we're going to have a blizzard, I just don't know exactly when it's going to happen.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 13:55 | 1766457 AGuy
AGuy's picture

You should be able to predict your next blizzard down to the minute. Its easy, just head down to your local Dairy Queen and order one!


Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:09 | 1765457 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

german market went above 6000  first time in six weeks. soon time to short?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 12:02 | 1766040 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

FWIW every indicator I use went into "overbought" mode for the DAX this afternoon.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:11 | 1765464 No Mas
No Mas's picture

My my.  A market crash prediction with no details such as a WHEN!

ZH'ers rejoice!  You have finally found a voice that speaks of the end of time, chaos and ruin.  On ZH no less!  Who would've thunk it.

Let me see, nope.  Nothing yet.  I'll keep an eye out for this crash not really defined.  Maybe when it pulls back a percent or so, you guys can just declare victory.  After all a crash isn't about how much a decline.  No, not any longer as I guess being so wrong so often leads to a redefinition of terms.  Nope, now a crash is really just a time of chaos, when there are no bids to meet a wall of sellers.  Damn, now that is really specific.

Tell ya what.  Let's just get this over with.  When the dollar crashes against the euro and the markets run up 10 or 20 percent, lets go ahead and call that a crash.  That way the ZH sheeple can say "Look at us!!! We were right!!!" and then the ZH site can come to grips with reality and post some stuff that resembles what is really going on; you know slow growth with high unemployment and what not.  Hardly the end of the world, right?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:22 | 1765549 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Smart forecasters, forecast the what or the when, but not both!

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:00 | 1765733 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Next Thursday 4:15pm, EST.


Where do I apply for a job as a smart forecaster?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:03 | 1765741 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

Need more proof? You want a different forecast before someone offers me a job?

OK, OK. Let me concentrate.... Alright. Got one.

Snow will fall in New York.

Dammit I'm good.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:07 | 1765771 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

If you were really smart, you'd know that next Thursday we'll still be in EDT, not EST.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:22 | 1765550 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

There's too much intervention to predict when, but it's coming.  You can only prolong the econmic adjustments for so long.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:28 | 1765576 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Let me ask you one serioius question.  Do you believe that spending more than you earn in perpetuity is a sustainable practice?  

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:22 | 1765844 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

If it is up to me what I spend and that which I spend I can create n+1 of, then yes, I do think it's sustainable until it runs away from me and becomes obvious resulting in my own mini-hyperinflation.


Thought I had it figured out for a second.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:37 | 1765620 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

No Mas = the guy who always thinks he's smarter than you - until the stock market crashes. This guy is never around when the market dips 300+ points a day.

Meanwhile - he still fails to realize the market went down from 14k to 6.5k in less than 9 months.. when it took 4 years to get from 10k to 14k.

Tell ya what - go post on the CNBC boards.. and we'll ignore your lame advice.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:38 | 1765631 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

May I suggest a name change to "No Clue".

Oh, and tell your handler at Organizing for America or Center For American Progress "Hi" from all the ZH-ers will you?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 10:47 | 1765674 Payable on Death
Payable on Death's picture

OK, I get your point--ZH has a less than rosy outlook / bias, and we need to filter for that. Still, are not the actions taken by the central bankers evidence of a problem? Of course they are, and the problems ARE VERY serious. It's also easy to see that the "solutions" look a lot like the problem--debt.

So, NM, what is your view? What actions are you taking, if any?

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 11:02 | 1765739 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



No Mas...nice snipe attempt, but open your eyes.

DJIA in gold peaked in 2000 at 43 oz and is currently < 7oz (11,500 / 1,680).  The fact that the DJIA has retraced - in nominal terms - 2/3 of its drop from 14K in 2007 to <7K in 2009 isn't what I'd put faith in as a "recovered" market.  Particularly since it's taken an infusion of a zillion digital clownbux and a bunch of failed stimulus just to keep the deck level dry.

Wake up to the reality of where things are.

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