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Guest Post: Changing Risk Perceptions Across Multiple Asset Classes

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Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:47 | 1707549 oogs66
oogs66's picture

all hell is about to break loose?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:50 | 1707555 falak pema
falak pema's picture

it already has if you are a greek...

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:01 | 1707588 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Watch the Asia open tonight for a picture of what will hit Europe later on, and the USA even later.

Time to put on some big boy pants because shit is about to get real, and we'll be able to watch it all burn down in vivid technicolor.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 13:03 | 1707729 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

I'll tell you this, margin calls are already coming in to the small guys, who alre always in the deepest when the shit hits. If we see continued weakness over the early part of next week, it feels like a lot of panic selling will happen here..... and so I presume around the world. 

That giant sucking sound is hot money rushing......back. Not good for any of us....

ORI

And it Gets Weirder

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 13:51 | 1707907 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

You know? ... I read through all the comments on this thread (and others), and I am of the opinion that all of you are taking all this financial stuff too seriously, and are needlessly upsetting yourselves, really about nothing. Life is a lot easier than you all seem to recognize.

I'm passing this on because it worked for me today. A Dr. on TV said to have inner peace we should always finish things we start & we all could use more calm in our lives. I looked around my house to find things I'd started & hadn't finished, so I finished off a bottle of Merlot, a bodle of Vodka, a butle of wum, tha mainder of Valiuminun scriptins, an a box a chocletz. Yu haf no idr how fablus I feel rite now. Sned this to all who need inner piss. An telum u luvum..

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 14:01 | 1707957 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Haaah! Awesome...thanks for that....

ORI

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 14:10 | 1707995 freeasabee1
freeasabee1's picture

i'm going to follow your lead, i have a few bottles of my Bi-polar meds, zyprexa which i stop taking a while back...strong shit has a big punch in large douses

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 15:27 | 1708276 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

I do feel like I need an inner piss.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 18:52 | 1708751 oldman
oldman's picture

mmp,
You are correct: LIFE IS EASY!
Even without the chemicals and the adrenalin rushes of constant mental and physical activity to which all of us are addicted.
But this does not imply that we will not go bust
Peace and harmony, time and space are riches as long as one enjoys good health
ENJOY!!!!!!!!!!1 om

Mon, 09/26/2011 - 00:03 | 1709395 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Good timing, I was getting a little tense, and Europe ain't even open yet...

Inner piss is upon me.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:16 | 1707626 Kyron95131
Kyron95131's picture

i still blame the snow storms of the east coast in 2010 for this...

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:21 | 1707641 freeasabee1
freeasabee1's picture

 I blame Rebecca Black

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 13:38 | 1707868 Western
Western's picture

Blame Canada.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 16:15 | 1708380 falun bong
falun bong's picture

Nah for me it's that Caroline Hyde on Bloomberg...the blond with the purty little mouth and torpedoes in her blouse...

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:51 | 1707703 max2205
max2205's picture

'short cover rally' ?!

Did I miss something?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 14:39 | 1708102 11b40
11b40's picture

I think he meant the one week before last....back before the Bernak pulled the put.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:55 | 1707571 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

lets see what happens later this evening

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:12 | 1707616 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Lots of people will get ass-rammed by huge cocks when the support breaks across all boards.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:56 | 1707716 RSloane
RSloane's picture

That is a most unattractive visual image.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:55 | 1707572 Kina
Kina's picture

So I guess its hold USD huh. My PMs are valued in USD.

 

So kick the AUD in the guts some more please.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 11:59 | 1707582 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

 Dipshit rumor mill getting just hrs. of wiggle room. Oh how they long for the rumors to last days/weeks.

 

 

 

 

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:42 | 1707584 Cynical Sidney
Cynical Sidney's picture

macro speculation set the market on fire. however as an individual trader this is the best time to

leverage your positions and make a killing. sucks to be a long term investor right now, we need more haircuts and write offs

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:01 | 1707585 stock trout
stock trout's picture

For a day trader it's always a dangerous market so I don't really get the use of this adjective unless you're long for the long term. If it weren't dangerous we'd all be millionaires. I can say with authority that the market will go up or down. If you place your bets long term (long term being more than one day) then it could be dangerous; otherwise it's a dream market.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:02 | 1707590 reader2010
reader2010's picture

We've just been given another once-in-a-lifetime opp to buy low, and no one is welcoming that?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:16 | 1707623 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

I do. People will always need food, oil, and the utilities (water, electricity, etc). Always. And I am buying the companies that furnish them. Not quite at these levels -- we will fall further. Then it's time to load up for the investment period of our lifetimes.

Deflation will absolutely destroy debtors and banks. For those who were prudent and saved, we may finally, at long last, have a level playing field, if not the upper hand.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:18 | 1707632 bugfixx
bugfixx's picture

But what if it's all headed much, much lower?  Who trusts balance sheets or earnings forecasts anymore?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:22 | 1707645 spiral galaxy
spiral galaxy's picture

You're right! But 2008/09 are still very fresh in the ol' memory.  E.g., thinking that Dow 8000 was 'bottom' and the Dow continuing to sell off to 6000.  So 'no thanks' on celebrating just yet.  Perhaps when this mess stabilizes and the smoke clears.  .....as in two or three years from now.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:31 | 1707672 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

This Mess won't be stabilised for a very simple reason: the hundreds of millions of unemployed and/or unproductive cuntsumers.

After 2008 redux comes a World War between Asian nations, involving US; between Israel and the whole shabang in that region, involving the EU; and in Africa, well, they will keep on eating people there.

A workable scenario, it did work in the past - functions of war are irreplaceable, if one wants to change society (whether into an Utopia, or a serfdom/prison planet - that's another question)

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:47 | 1707694 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Good luck with defining what 'low' is. Low is at the bottom and you'll be able to see it clearly a year after the fact.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 13:14 | 1707756 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Exactly right. We won't know until its happened, and that is the piece that frightens people.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 22:40 | 1709239 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@RSloane

I already know.  I am from the future.  ;)

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:05 | 1707597 deadcatbounce
deadcatbounce's picture

AUD/USD went as low as .65 in 09' why should now be any different?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:14 | 1707619 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

EUR can see 1.28 next month if this circus continues, and parity if Greece defaults. :):)

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 14:36 | 1708085 hammondo
hammondo's picture

yes my little pretty....go down....go down like the filthy pacific peso that we all know you are!!

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:13 | 1707617 Quixote2
Quixote2's picture

Some comparable market performance values expressed as annualized returns through Sept 23, 2011 are:

Year to date: Silver +0.09%; Gold +23.4%; and S&P 500 -13.0%.
One year: Silver +46.2%; Gold +28.2%; and S&P 500 +1.05%.
Three year: Silver +32.5%; Gold +22.9%; and S&P 500 -1.64%.
Five year: Silver +22.6%; Gold +23.0%; and S&P 500 -2.87%.
From 1/1/2000, 11.7 years: Silver +16.2%; Gold +16.0%; and S&P 500 -2.17%.

Which would you prefer to be invested in? (even including the last two days carnage.)

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:16 | 1707624 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Dollar has been devalued by 16.2% since 2k, damn those bitches. :/

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:59 | 1707723 CapitalistRock
CapitalistRock's picture

It's been devalued a heck of a lot more than that! Something tells me your are comparing the dollar to other currencies and pretending those other currencies have a fixed value.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 13:05 | 1707738 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Of course not, I was referring to gold price. Au went up a whole lot more in Mexican pesos, than it did in dollars, but, of course, the Fed has been busy at work since 1913, when the fate of the Republic of the United States of America was sealed - destruction of the Rule of Law through democracy of ignorant masses, and subsequent iterations in the form of Free Shit Army.

Still, the dollar is 'better' off, for now.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 13:16 | 1707753 Quixote2
Quixote2's picture

That is 16% per year, or 571% total increase from $290 to $1657.  Or the dollar has been devalued by 82.5% since Jan 1, 2000 when evaluated vs gold.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:13 | 1707618 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

have the hedgies been all but kicked out of the precious metals markets now?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:18 | 1707633 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Hardly. GLD is shit paper, look at the options interest. Hedge funds are going to burn people in GLD.

Also, look at the double- and triple-play short etfs like ZSL and DZZ. If anything, interest is peaking.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 13:35 | 1707855 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Looks like a new crop of ZSL bags has sprouted.  How do people keep getting tricked into that POS?

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 14:09 | 1707988 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

I presume the "POS" you refer to is ZSL? dude, it's no bigger pos than any other.... TIMING, TIMING, dude. Sure glad I had some ZSL in my back pocket last week = KA-CHING for me, baby (ps...now buying - carefully - AGQ)

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:19 | 1707634 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I wonder what the reaction would be if you told people that their quality of life can be measured in the prices of copper and oil.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:24 | 1707653 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

They don't wear 1k suits, rather prefer unisex Gaylord clothes, so they wouldn't know how much an ounce of gold was worth 40 years ago. Or 2000 years for that matter.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:29 | 1707666 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Keep your powder dry, start shorting again if it rallies on rumors, and buying some when Greece defaults.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:33 | 1707670 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

The aging bull market is analagous to Jordan. The market needs fundamental support which is not there. Michael found support outside of round ball with underwear support briefs. The young players playing for real wear jock straps. Just as Bernanke can't risk getting kicked in the balls yet, he will wait until WallStreet and the media beg for oxygen on the sidelines while they whimper like baby girls. It will still be risky bringing in the used up, old trick Jordan- the results might get winded quickly from overuse, and lack of real protection for a downside kick in the nuts. This the NBA, not street ball.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:31 | 1707671 SparkySC
SparkySC's picture

Things are a lot less risky than they were. Let the DOW pop 700-1100 pts then it's be risky again.Then you strike.

 

ZH will doomsay it all the way up.

 

Longrun I agree, but it gets a bit silly. Like golf will after the Tour Championship. The Silly Season.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 12:35 | 1707679 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

I woudn't put Bernanke's name next to Michael Jordan's. The former is a disgrace.

Sun, 09/25/2011 - 13:13 | 1707754 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Yah, everyone knows joos can't play round ball worth a damn. Off to watch football. Toodles.

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