This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Guest Post: The Chart Of The Decade
Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics blog,
This chart tells millions of stories. I’m trying to get my head around its implications.
That’s right: since 1984 (surely an appropriate year) while the elderly have grown their wealth in nominal terms, the young are much worse off both in inflation-adjusted terms, as well as nominal terms (pretty hard to believe given that the money supply has expanded eightfold in the intervening years). So why are the elderly doing over fifty times better than the young when they were only doing ten times better before?
Are young people a stupefied generation coddled by parents and government, addicted to welfare, junk food, drugs and reality TV?
To some extent, but are they any less fiscally and morally responsible than the marijuana-smoking, free-love-embracing, national-debt-accruing baby boom generation? That’s a matter of opinion, but my answer is probably not. Baby boomers hate Ron Paul, while the under-35s seem to love him.
Is it due to government policies that favour the elderly and screw the young?
America is suffering from excessive consumer debt:
Net worth is calculated by subtracting debt from assets. The biggest debt for most people is a mortgage. So having more mortgage debt or less mortgage debt tends to be a pretty good determinant of net worth. (And no — unlike in the United Kingdom and Australia which have a severe problem with housing affordability — housing in the USA is still cheap today priced in wages)
The elderly have very often already paid off their mortgages — no doubt helped by the 1980s and 1990s where both stock prices and house prices grew rapidly. And why did rise so rapidly?
Some say that it came on the back of excessive expansion of the money supply beyond the economy’s productive capacity. But that doesn’t seem quite true:
The money supply grew in tandem with industrial production. This was no bubble, but organic growth (albeit as I have shown before on the back of cheap Chinese goods and cheap Arab energy).
My hypothesis is that the present situation is a product of government expansion.
Here’s government expenditure as a proportion of GDP:
Government spending in democracies very often tends to constitute a transfer of wealth from non-voters to voters (as well as groups that can’t afford lobbyists to groups that can afford lobbyists — perhaps that is one reason why corporate profits are soaring while youth unemployment remains elevated, and why Wall Street banks get bailed out, but delinquent small businesses do not).
Here’s the voter turnout by age in the 2004-2008 Presidential elections:
Older people vote in droves. Politicians want their votes and therefore promise them more free stuff — medicare, medicaid, services — and they vote for whoever offers them the most.
The biggest issue though, is this:
Keynesians may say that this reflects a government’s failure to create jobs for young people. They claim that the problem is that there is not enough money circulating in the economy, and that government can “raise demand” by pumping out more cash. But there is plenty of money in the economy; so much money that Apple have built up a $90 billion cash pile. So much that China has built up a $3 trillion cash pile. So much that banks are holding $1.6 trillion in excess reserves below fractional lending requirements.
More likely is the reality that overregulation and barriers to entry preventing the unemployed from picking up the slack in the jobs market. As John Stossel reveals in a recent documentary film, in New York City it costs $1 million to get a licence to drive a taxi. Anyone who wishes to operate a food cart, or run a lemonade stand has to traverse reams of bureaucracy, acquire health and safety certificates, and often pay huge fees to receive the “necessary” accreditation. While some barriers to entry are necessary (e.g. in medicine), in other fields it is just an unnecessary restraint on useful economic activity. In many American cities it is now illegal even to feed the homeless without government certification and approval. Citizens who defy these regulations face fines, arrest, and even imprisonment.
In a recent article, the Economist noted:
Two forces make American laws too complex. One is hubris. Many lawmakers seem to believe that they can lay down rules to govern every eventuality. Examples range from the merely annoying (eg, a proposed code for nurseries in Colorado that specifies how many crayons each box must contain) to the delusional (eg, the conceit of Dodd-Frank that you can anticipate and ban every nasty trick financiers will dream up in the future). Far from preventing abuses, complexity creates loopholes that the shrewd can abuse with impunity.
The other force that makes American laws complex is lobbying. The government’s drive to micromanage so many activities creates a huge incentive for interest groups to push for special favours. When a bill is hundreds of pages long, it is not hard for congressmen to slip in clauses that benefit their chums and campaign donors. The health-care bill included tons of favours for the pushy. Congress’s last, failed attempt to regulate greenhouse gases was even worse.
Complexity costs money. Sarbanes-Oxley, a law aimed at preventing Enron-style frauds, has made it so difficult to list shares on an American stockmarket that firms increasingly look elsewhere or stay private. America’s share of initial public offerings fell from 67% in 2002 (when Sarbox passed) to 16% last year, despite some benign tweaks to the law. A study for the Small Business Administration, a government body, found that regulations in general add $10,585 in costs per employee. It’s a wonder the jobless rate isn’t even higher than it is.
The truth may be that the inability of the unemployed to become self-employed is the force that is squeezing the jobless most. Certainly, job migration overseas has changed America, but why should it mean continued elevated unemployment? There is enough money to keep the economy flowing so long as there are opportunities for people to make themselves useful in a way that pays. With the crushing burden of overregulation and the problem of barriers to entry, these opportunities are often restricted to large corporations.
These issues of youth unemployment and growing inequality between the generations are critically important. Unemployed and poor swathes of youth have a habit of creating volatility in response to restricted economic opportunity.
»
- 33588 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
That's a lot of kids in a lot of basements.
ya OTC swaps on 35yearolds in parents basements is a good trade
That last BLS chart must have not gotten it's proper bi-decadal adjustment.
The Fed is owned by old people.
Case closed.
What is the volcker rule does anyone know?
The median net worth at 65 is only 170k? I bet the vast majority of that "wealth" is tied up in (anticipated) home equity. Even if they can get the money out of the house, life expectancy is 78.3, so with ZIRP and inflation*, over the next 13 years of their expected lives, those folks are totally fucked with less than $15k per year of net worth to monetize.
Don't quit your day job grandma and grandpa! You have 20% Medicare co-insurance and pills to pay for.
*Tell me again why these old folks vote for the status quo? Oh yeah, they have been watching television and eating McCrap their entire lives, so their brains are shit.
To be fair, the stat is "65 and older". I would hope that the avg net worth for actual 65 year olds is quite a bit higher and the statistic is skewed down by those closer to their expiration date.
Good catch. Lord, I hope you are correct.
Whether I am or not, your point is still valid.
Hedgeless - also note that the $170 k net worthi in 2009 is substantially less valuable than the $120 k net worth in 1984 if true consumer goods price inflation is factored in.
When you look at true consumer goods price inflation, a 1984 dollar was worth about $6 in 2009 not the $2 that the BLS says it is with their rigged CPI numbers. So you can triple the value of the $120k to get comparable 2009 buying-power vs. the $170k.
http://www.shadowstats.com/inflation_calculator
Those 65 and older have been screwed by the Fed as well - just not as badly as the younger generation.
Have no worries.
Their (65+) money will keep them in meds until they starve to death.
Exactly. One of the main problems is that people just don't seem to be wired up to receive the message as to what happened to their "dollars". (There aren't actually any dollars; only the name remains). A comparison between 120K of 1984 monetary units and 170K of 2009 units is completely ridiculous. I would hasten to add that the mulitplier is at least 6 to 1; probably more.
From 1984? I believe it's closer to 3.2 to 1.
But the young have more time to enact the revolution, and more strength to drag the guillotine to the door.
A disturbing comment as we know that (1) violent revolutionary movements allow the force of authority to be used to suppress the movements and (2) violent movements are often taken-over by psychopaths as they have no limits in the application of violence.
Just like 1776, eh?
"often" is the operative word.
The candlestick chart says it is adjusted for inflation.
BLS numbers, or ShadowStats numbers for the inflation?
Enquiring minds want to know....
I have to question the 6x factor you assume. In 1984 a top of the line Chrysler Fifth Avenue cost less than $20,000 and a gallon of premium gas cost just short of $1.50 here in Florida. We're not close to a Chrysler costing $120K or gas costing $9.00. Just based on those two items I'd say that the factor is more like 3x. I bought a 1986 Buick LeSabre for < $15K in mid-year. No way that same car would cost even $75K (5x, not 6x to adjust for two years) these days.
Addressing some of the numbers in the article itself, I wonder what effect the burden of student loans has on the net worth of youger people. Massive student loan debt was unheard of in 1984 except for doctors. Further, it is so much easier nowadays to spend money on a recurring basis. Cable TV, internet access and cell phones can eat up an enormous amount of money each month. I don't remember what a land line cost back in 1984, but cell phones - expecially for those who use the additional features like texting - can get expensive rapidly.
Aside from those observations, I agree: we've all, regardless of age, been screwed. I assign the blame on DC, since the Fed is there primarily to fund the Federal deficits.
John Williams at ShadowStats.com uses the constant 1982 Bureau of Labor Statistics method of calculating inflation held constant over the intervening years to take out the monkey business that Boskin & Greenspan introduced to the CPI.
Some things do get cheaper with automation and new technologies so your car price may not have increased as fast. Also, Chinese and global cheap labor has been substituted for US labor driving down the cost of some manufactured goods. Overall, the 1982 BLS basket gives about a 6x price increase since 1984. If you feel that is high, use 4x (remember the BLS uses 2.07)
Here are some prices from 1984:
Average Cost of new house $86,730
Median Price Of and Existing Home $72,400
Average Income per year $21,600.00
Average Monthly Rent $350.00
Movie Ticket $2.50
1 gallon of gas $1.10
Dodge RAM 50 Truck $8,995.00
From: http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/1984.html
Also in 1984,
1 lb. copper = $0.62
1 oz. gold = $325
Median Price of a US House Actually Sold:
http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.exe/cenc25/c25p06
How do you get the price for a new Ram 50 now?
They might as well have used the price for an AMC Eagle....
delete
Oh yeah, they have been watching television and eating McCrap their entire lives, so their brains are shit
LOL
I'm the youngest of the baby boomers (born ‘64) surely I will be fucked big time. I am expecting nothing from SS and nothing from the govt. My 401k = a 201k – wow big surprise. Lost everything when the tech bubble popped in 2000 and lost it all again in 2008, learned the hard way. Bye, bye USA when it comes time to retire. Already got the house in Mexico [Mexican wife] free and clear. If I have nothing there will be nothing to steal – think about it – makes sense. The whole town is poor but everyone is happy.
Last laugh = me
Indeed. The young should follow your example too. The best economic opportunities over the next two decades will likely be in developing/emerging economies. Go East/South young man.
Not to mention the Mexican wife probably takes good care of you too. I'm Gen Y and I doubt whether I'll ever get married ... Gen Y American women seem too damn dysfunctional and have bought completely in to the debt-based consumerist society that is killing us.
"Don't quit your day job grandma and grandpa!"
And as more Grandmas and Grandpas have to keep working that's even less (shit)jobs for the kiddoes...
The Younger Generation Today is coming into a much smaller, and lower wage workforce. You can have a low wage workforce but prices got to come way the heck down on everything
Jobs, well they are still going away at a rapid rate
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
-
The work force is much smaller literally as they are competing against Chinese sweat shops.
This is all nice & good, but the younger generation has a shitload of electronics and media crap that, if valued in nominal terms, would close some of that gap but for the fact that, unlike their peers from 1984, they purchased with credit while they wracked up debt to get pointless degrees. I was a young adult of the early '80s who worked a couple jobs while going to college and then went straight to work at a bullshit low-paying job that was the first step on the ladder, and back in those days it was still not so easy to get a credit card, so yeah, I had a lot more net worth because I didn't piss it all away. BTW, parents' basement was not an option ... Amazing how motivation sneaks up on you.
I think you've hit a major point with the student debt. The article does emphasize that this is NET worth. These kids are entering a workforce that requires a bachelors degree to answer telephones yet they are paid less in real terms than a high school drop out would have been paid for the same job back in the 80's and they're saddled with 50K in student loans.
Can you even get an online degree for $50K?
Send me $50K in silver, and I'll print you out a degree, hang it on your wall, and feel SMRT....
Electronics depreciate even fast than cars. There was an article here a few months ago, talking about how you can spend $5k on consumer crap at the mall, but has a street resale value of $300.
1 word HOUSING. On average a family's largest asset is their house. All equity put in a house in the last 10 years is lost. End of story, graph explained nothing too surprising. It has nothing to do with the old profiting or taking advantage of the young adults.
Somebody probably already posted this, but just in case: The Middle Children of History Speech:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3BymQWsC_k
(sorry it's a mashup, FOX blocked the excerpt from Fight Club)
Man, I see in Fight Club the strongest and smartest men who have ever lived. I see all this potential, and I see it squandered. Goddammit, an entire generation pumping gas, waiting tables, slaves with white collars. Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need. We're the middle children of history, man; no purpose or place. We have no Great War, no Great Depression. Our Great War is a spiritual war. Our Great Depression is our lives. We've all been raised by television to believe that one day we'd all be millionaires and movie gods and rock stars. But we won't; and we're slowly learning that fact. And we're very, very pissed off.
Still waiting for Project M@yh3m...
Interesting, Bob. Reminds me of a song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MThfdTEkkOo
You are my single serving friend today.
duplicate removed
my roomate's sister makes $85 hourly on the computer. She has been fired from work for 6 months but last month her paycheck was $16158 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more here ..... http://lazyCash.com
Isn't this grounds for removal from ZH?
Hey, secret Agentp, Do you think his name is Bobby Middleton III?
No, there's no overt racism displayed.
Bad manners are excused. Blatant pimping is verboten. Off with his head I say.
Nothing says get off my lawn like a head on pike.
#41
No really, go to lazyass.com it works! Also known as SNAP.com.
Whow! You mean I can make 85 dollars an hour on my computer. Golly gee, where do I sign up. I have been praying every night that I could finally take part in the American dream. Now my prayers have been answered. Halaluya!
$16158/month / $85/hour = 178.44 hours worked.
4weeks/month x 40hours/month = 160hours/month
That's a lot of time on her back posing for a webcam.
No, she can't just lay there. She's gotta move, too.
You gotta take out expenses, too.
Rubber sheets, baby oil, batteries and 2-liter bottles don't come cheap, ya know....
fuu said:
True, but the goats do most of the work.
There's actually 168 hours in a week, yer calculations are off.
I used the wrong unit. Should be 40 hours/work week.
Geez man, my room mate's sister makes way more than that, and her only expense is penicillin.
what time does her webcam show start? does she have toys? does she do anal?
is she hawt?
That's a lot of kids in a lot of basements.
~~~
What would one rather have?
Kids in basements "debt free" (who aren't part & parcel of the leveraged debt ponzi)?
Or kids on the hamster wheel who keep the ponzi alive?
Are you the kid or the parent? Either way, you don't make much sense to me.
I guess I didn't really make sense to a lot of people... I'm neither...
It's a 'hypothetical question/argument'... & it goes a little something like this:
If you have the CHOICE between going into debt ('borrowing' money into existence, from the banks, which then lever up that debt "x"-fold, which produces all of the HATED things that people here on ZH are disgusted by every single day)...
... or otherwise... Get a job (any job), live with the parents, help them out with household chores... Stay away from the fiat debt ponzi & stack phyzz with your spare earnings...
Which is better? (notwithstanding the 'stigma' attached to living in the basement)...
Again ~ it's a hypothetical question...
its a no-brainer. that's why I lived with my parents for the past year. FINALLY OUT! I'm debt-free, own [but lost ;) my silver (sorry government there's no way I'm letting you take that shit)]. the only downside, and its a big one, is not being able to bring young ladies home to smash.
Granted, if I lost my job, and couldn't find a suitable replacement... I'd go knocking on my mom and pops door again. Without enthusiasm... but I'd rather own PMs and be debt-free than not own them and have student-loan debt for the next 20 years.
Underconsumption in order to enjoy a higher standard of living at a later date.
For males... the 'ladies' part of that scenario is a tough mental hurdle to overcome...
I suppose I'd equate it being like the GEEKS in high school, who had to bite the bullet, study, & become outcasts... Later on, they got high tech jobs, becaome millionaires, & the chicks came calling...
Not EXACTLY like that, but 'something' like that...
~~~
"Underconsumption in order to enjoy a higher standard of living at a later date..."
aka - "living within your means & saving or formulating capital" (what a revolutionary concept ~ you're now on full fledged 'terrorist' alert)
FYI - any dude who only looks at "chicks" that "come calling" for your money, not so very bright.
(nor are the "chicks" tho' at least they're maximising their potential. . . assets.)
but if posing with a "chick" is part of the "millionaire" profile (which seems to be the case), far be it from me to upset the delicate balance of that class.
(didn't downvote, honest)
"Uncommon Cents - Benjamin Franklin's Secrets to Achieving Personal Financial Success", ISBN: 0-939817-06-3, by Lynn G. Robbins
@francis.....Government Motors is really trying to keep that hamster wheel going.....apparently the youngins arent buying into the buying of cars anymore....gasp!!....so GM has begun a brainwashing campaign to convince the youts that they MUST have CARS, that they NEED cars!!! at all costs!!!.........
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/03/22/business/media/20120322-cars.html#index
@kito
EVERYBODY is on full court press to keep the hamster wheel going... That's the whole point (which, as I read, is your main point)... 'Marketing' is 100% dedicated to luring you into living the good life if you go into debt, and labeling you as an outcast if you refuse to do so)...
Tortoise & Hare
~~~
I drive a 1991 Ford F-150 pickup (then again, I have 'chores' to do on the property)... I could buy a new truck if I wanted... But why?... I'd rather stack phyzz...
Here's a story for you...
Today I get this e-mail from my mom (which was forwarded by my aunt)... It had to do with the new $1 silver coins (which I HATE to even call 'silver' because they're fucking zinc)...
Anyway ~ the 'brou-ha-ha' was that the people who are getting them in change are noticing that 'IN GOD WE TRUST' is not stamped on the coin (so there is a campaign to reject them)... In the e-mail, my mom wanted to know my opinion about it (plus, she forwarded me a foto of one)...
My reply?
I said the PROBLEM has less to do with whether IN GOD WE TRUST is stamped on it... It was probably done on purpose, just so as to raise a fuss & get people begging for the PAPER again (over coinage)... & I said the REAL issue is that they would prefer to herd you into just using debit cards for everything so that the banks could profit & that the transactions are settled in a way that is a proxy for the dollar)...
Fucking sheep!... BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
They should be forced to mint "In Bernanke We Trust" on all new coins, that way, people might get a hint about "their" "money."
OT... (interruption for the 'NWO' FALSE FLAG story of the day/hour/minute)
http://news.yahoo.com/jetblue-captain-theyre-going-us-down-213258583.html
~~~
Look people!!! What those scary 'Iranians' are about to do to us... OMFG!
Jeez ~ the shit gets piled deeper every day...
great story, totally made me want to fly JetBlue!
sounds like Animal House, perma-party! confidence inspiring!
upvote for the lol.
It says "IN GOD WE TRUST" on the edges of the coin, but not the face.
Hell, even Ford is matching up to $500 on new leases.
And the only race being trumpeted now is between Priceline, Apple and Google to see who'll hit the $1K mark first....
Find a kid with a drivers license...wish I were kidding about that, I have guys that are 30 without their card.
odd. I rarely ever meet a person without one. I ditched mine. The car in the end cost more than it was worth & I save tons having no direct cost of gas, insurance, maintenance or license. Obviously vehicles use fuel so I pay for it when I use train, bus or taxi.
This is just more propaganda targeted at boomers who accepted and advocated government debt over the last few decades. DON'T fall for it. The young these days are spoiled, and they will do everything they can to blame their elders. These young scoundrels would do well to show some respect and learn some personal responsibility.
Hey! I did my part and was very responsible according to your theory of economic productivity. I went into debt for over $250K for a house, buy/trade-in/lease a car every two to three years, took on a huge student debt loan, raked up my credit cards on trips to Disney and Vegas, and built a pool with a HELOC. I am one responsible mother fucker. Plus, I am helping GDP and donating to the stock market regularly. Debt makes the world go round and I owe it all to the boomers. What a great fucking system this is baby.
I don't consider a mortgage as a debt against assets. You can just walk away whenever
MDB, I usually find your contrarian views refreshing and insightful, but I have to disagree here.
Youths in the 50's and 60's had an easy and clear career path, with relatively little capital
and training necessary to get to speed. Next to education the biggest expense was perhaps
to buy a muscle car. housing was cheap and affordable, and you could start off with nothing.
Youth nowadays need massive investment in capital. Education and housing is prohibitive.
Jobs are limited and aside from service-sector job-traps, real entry level careers are extremely
specialised for the young, with the empahsis on technical production while the older generation
occupies the managerial strata.
Increased retirement age means the youth has to compete with the baby boomers at work.
Increased longevity means the youth has to compete on social economic terms as well.
That's where we are not on equal footing. The boomers have accumulated capital: wealth.
Luxury doesn't scale linearly in terms of production to price. Most of the value is in brand
status, which doesn't create more high-income jobs but rather only service-sector sales jobs.
The dispersal of luxury disposable wealth by high-earners drives up prices for the youth,
without bringing them matching income growth opportunity.
This will hold until such a point that natural attrition will reduce the splurging at the upper strata,
and the yound's core technical skills will in a premium high demand, Problem is, when will we get
there? will it skip a generation?
Unless it turns the US into a European type model, in which case there will be no guarantee that
you will make it on your own without material parental support. Most of my north american gen-X
friends have a decent house or mortgage. In europe that's quite hard without some inheritance help.
Shirley, this is bullish for housing. And don't call me, surely.
The basements of 2012 are the equivalent of the shacks of shanty town in 1935
Once the parents lose the home, that basement is gone also
I feel very sad and pessimistic for the teens and young adults trying to make a living these days. They're not spoiled. They've been duped into a mindless entertained world and nobody out there telling them the truth about what their world has become. They want to work as much as anyone at their age wanted to work - or not work - over time. But there are no jobs. They're being misguided into buying education as if, as if more education guaranteed a better future.
It's not their fault and my hope is that the young generations will eventually realize this, wake up and scream "Fuck You" and destroy and ransack the false idols that America has given them.
Young people tend to have ideals and they tend to be alot more motivated to venting their anger. Hitler of course understood this very well and if it wasn't for the young and restless, Hitler wouldn't have ruled the streets of Germany prior to the elections.
Change is good. The elite is way too comfortable and needs to be taken down. I trust the young & restless of this time will get the job accomplished just as generations before them did. And for fuck's sake spare me the "greatest generation" bullshit. They were all manipulated and lied to, and they were too stupid or too involved to figure it out and make change happen. Some "greatest generation" that was.
I think you maybe confusing the generation that fought WWII and who are largely deceased with the "baby boomer" generation that followed them.
So you're saying basement dwellers are going to fight WWIII, and the deformed children they have after sucking up DU for a couple of years are going to pump up the debt bubble again?
Had a talk with some neighbor kids who I've know for twelve years now about to go off to college. Stressed about their parents making them feel guilty for trying to find the funding for college. Parents kept comparing what they paid thirty years ago and how they worked through etc. They seemed to be half way there to understanding that this is not their fault and they are not being selfish to simply want the same. They definitely get that their parents (1) must be somewhat responsible for where things are (2) don't have a clue how hard it is, (3) have no right to compare it to the eighties and (4) no matter what, the younger generation still needs to learn something to help fix the pile of crap handed to them.
like chumps comment below, I felt better helping them articulate their frustration and they seemed to feel less tolerant of accepting the blame.
The Iceland Generation
+10000
Its so sad... how many of today`s young minds, once extracted of creativity, initiative, and self-directed thinking, impregnated with acute fear of failure, are left with a numbing feeling of something wrong with the world around them. Unable to pinpoint it, most divulge to less-than-beneficial hobbies, pursuits, intoxications, numbed of anxiety at the very least by overprescribed antidepressants, systematically and psychologically deprived of impetus to change.
Though I hate most forms of destruction as much as the next person, the (hopefully) eventual, (most hopefully) intense deconstruction of this status quo, and its every sickening form of psychosocial infection, will be enthralling and heartwarming to witness.
I am 23, and my faith in the overall intelligence and capacity of people will, until then, remain low.
If I understand this chart correctly, I just have to survive for another 25 years, and then my net worth is going to EXPLODE to the upside!!
recently was at a wedding of late 20s couple. Friends/couple quite successful relatively speaking (Asian immigrants---heavy family emphasis, etc.) ..... all in late 20s or early 30s. I was stunned to hear the proportion living 'at home'. Attributed it to conservative penchant to save money until married and 1st house purchase, broader extended family 'comfort' levels, etc. Not really so .... they were making more dinero than their peers ...yet still chose to live 'in the basement' to save. Did pick-up alot of financial insecurity (which I share with them).
Not sure I agree with conclusion of author but he is honest enough to state that he is unsure himself of the implications of this all.
This is a lot of pent-up 'housing' demand though ... by 1960s to 1980s standards at least ... but maybe the push to 'move out' is gone for good ......
if one likes, or can tolerate, their extended family then it makes (financial) sense to contribute to the upkeep of one larger residence and pool resources, at this stage of the game.
most of the rest of the world does this, and benefits from doing so - it's the Me-Mine story of creating millions of separate "households" to buy identical shit to put in them - couches, fridges, washing machines, etc. - and then pay repeatedly to MOVE the shit from space to space, or even worse, put it in the vast numbers of storage units available today - like amrkns don't have enough shit, they need to rent more space to put more of it in!
the amrnks were sold a "dream" and I mean SOLD, and the price is way to high for what one gets out of it - smart people learn to share, get along & build networks for safety.
reminds me of a great line from a peak oil lecture. We're always telling the third world to aspire to a US footprint. Maybe we have it backwards. Not only does the rest of the world do this, the first world is about to join the club.
living outside of amrka for over a decade woke me up to just how demanding and often spoiled amrkns can be - not all of them, but a good percentage - has to be new, has to be extra gadgety, have to dress brand name, drive bigger newer flashy, etc. etc.
but yes, most of the non-consuming-world-classers have it right, spend more time hanging out with those whose company you enjoy, less time working for fiat to buy stuffs to impress people you don't even like.
An immodest proposal:let Bernank print $1M per person and redistribute the wealth all while releasing ZIRP -- this would cure the economy faster than anything else as aggregate Demand would soar and aggregate Supply would have to adjust (more jobs with greater income equality at expense of banksters and TBTB) all while inflation would naturally adjust way up (but not that much more than it will with populace dirt poor eventually). How dare I propose this? Why I am an econ major and i can tell you most everything they teach you, even with laureate profs, is utter bs, ceteris perabus and exponential iPad sales.
The value of owning a printing press is maintained only by insuring that no one else has one as well. It's all relative. If Bernank gave everyone a million dollars, prices would rise proportionately and the whole thing would be a wash.
Now if Bernank just prints for himself and his friends. Then the value of the printing press is maintained (the goods go to Bernanke and friends, the bads go to everyone else.) Though it should be pointed out the printing press, like an option contract is a "wasting asset." It can only be used so many times before the printer destroys all their credibility and the currency they're printing. A point we're rapidly approaching or have exceeded.
The US patent office stopped accepting applications for perpetual motion machines back in like the 1930s. That's what a printing press is, a perpetual motion machine, but paradoxically no such thing exists.
The bernank is just a hypnotist. That's why they put that creepy eyeball on the dollar bill.
Its that "great sucking sound" of jobs leaving our country. Most of the older generation did not have to work most of their careers with their jobs being transferred offshore. Unfortunately the younger you are, the more damaging those Free Trade Agreements are upon a lifetime of earnings.
"it's a wonder the youth unemployment rate isn't higher than it is". Uh...it is. Much higher.
You could say that this is a case of getting what you vote for. If elder people read, understand and care about policies (more than say xfactor or american idol) then its no surprise the politicians pay attention to them - virtuitous circle.
I agree that small business start ups are really difficult in general, but again, you don't learn how to create and operate a successful small business by listening to MTV or hanging out. Small businesses run on sweat and blood and capital and very few 'young' people realise this.
Obviously being regulated up the ass will never support an expansive policy - though regulation still seems to be the order of the day, even though production seems to continually be faltering and has been for years. Governments need to lighten up on policies. I mean Volcker, Dodd Frank, Insurance 2, Basel, FATCA... they don't add value.
I'm not the only Tiger's fan. Bless You Boys!
Woods?
Hey I'll "baby your boom" bitchz. The great generation let their kids run the house, oh and they stole the money from mom's drawer. What a shame.
I am so sick of the anti-baby boom rants. I'm a boomer. We were born into the generation facing the greatest competition ever for good college and graduate school jobs. If we served in the military, RVN, we received vastly less than WWII or Korean war soldiers before us, or Iraq War veterans after us. We were not the generation of Reagan and Greenspan, or for that matter Johnson and Nixon. The truly enormous off-the-books benefit increases were done long ago, then supplemented by an old Senate in Clinton's second term. Was bush a help? No, but he was just a puppet of the Silent Generation, Cheney and his pals. The Silent Generation will max both Social Security and Medicare payouts relative to contributions. From then on it's downhill in terms of return. The Boomers in their teens were sold every pile of crap the Silent Generation could think of. It was the SG that provided the original Hippy movement creation-by-publicity, and all of its elder statesman. Timothy Leary wasn't a Boomer. Alan Ginsberg wasn't a Boomer. People on this site repeatedly place blame on the Boomer Generation for things their elders spawned. Henry Kissinger a Boomer? Nope, but he's Mr. China Trade. On and on. Needless to say, of course, the generation trope distracts people from the class-by-wealth-or education reality. It's bizarre.
I upvoted you for pointing out some facts most don't care to know.
many of the people complaining about "boomers" are just angry that they don't get the fake prosperity that happened from RayGun's 80's onwards - which "career" oriented people capitalised on - not every "boomer" was playing the capital game, though home owners DID maximise their "ATM equity" and give the appearance of living large.
now the under-40's - don't care which label they want to wear - see the pie is gone, all that's left is a few crumbs and the aroma, nothing tangible - and they're angry - so they label anyone "older" as having eaten all the(ir) pie!!
/shrug. I imagine lots of people in "other" countries have felt similar all along, as they were invaded, free-traded, and discarded.
The growth in the 80s and 90s was NOT organic. M2 is not including the emission of unbacked credit, which is exactly the same thing as money because both are fungible (just ask anyone who has used a student loan to by an iPad). When you look at it that way, the economy has never once grown faster than debt for a period longer than 3 months in the past 35 years! This debt orgy is certainly is not what I'd call organic growth.
+55
Karl, is that you?
Not Karl, but that is where that stat is from. It's one of my favorite of the ones he loves to throw out, because it really just sums the whole situation.
I took a little while for tricky dick's dick slip to kick in.
trickle up, pay down. see(saw).
brilliant
I think the key is, yes, self-employment is darn near impossible without cash, needed to overcome regulation; only in the narrow Internet sector, where there is no regulation, do we see young people taking risks and growing.
For now; the government (on behalf of lobbyists and government intelligence agencies) is hell-bent on regulating the Internet to death as well.
"Older people vote in droves. Politicians want their votes and therefore promise them more free stuff — medicare, medicaid, services — and they vote for whoever offers them the most."
Actually the government does not promise "free stuff", at least not to the plebs. That's you and me in case you were wondering who these "plebs" are. Only that someone else will pay for it.
Small difference in the end.....but a difference none-the-less.
Medicare and Medicaid are paid by taxes, they are not "free". I don't see anyone bitching about roads as being "free stuff promised to the elderly"
Yes, medicare and medicaid are partially paid by taxes. The parts not covered through taxes are covered through inflation - the hidden tax.
I have a theory that the average Joe prefers the hidden tax (inflation.....but not too much please......just a little off the top....a trim really) to the more overt income or property tax. It allows us all to believe that everyone else suffers just as much as you and me.
Except (of course) the rich. But Karma takes care of them.......eventually.
This is the slave mentality, the only (psychological) refuge for those of us who have completely abandoned our own sovereignty.
Here....take my kid instead. He'll grow used to being an indentured servant. iPromise.
After all, I did.
IDK CD, methinks inflation is getting bad enough that people are starting to twitch. Went to the grocery store this morning. I am shocked by how much prices keep going up. Coffee I used to see for 7.99/bag is now 12.99/bag, bag is now 12oz instead of a pound. What used to be cheapo boiled ham for lunch sandwiches, I used to see for $3/lb now $2.50 for 10oz. Really shocking price increases. While I was shopping, noticed the store was pretty empty. I did see a lot of seniors shuffling around in shell shock, grumbling about the prices. Honestly, I am so glad I grow/raise or my friends grow/raise a lot of my food. If you have a large family and buying at the stores, you are getting a serious dent in your pocket. I predict baking will come back. Stuff like cookies, bread were astronomical, I wouldn't buy it even if cost was not an issue. On top of gas costs and low wages/unemployment this cannot hold much longer. I truly feel so sorry for young people today.
I truly feel so sorry for young people today.
NO!
Instead, preach to them what you know they will (or do now) need to know, depending on their age. This is very important. In my day, a neighbor adult had no problem correcting misbehavior of us neighborhood kids. Did we always listen, no. But, there were lessons in some of it that became quite useful in time.
My child will be of Molotov and Kalashnikov age in about half a decade and looking around, things are much more fucked up than my time transitioning to independence during the good ole' recession days of the early 1990's. Feeling sorry, I'm sorry to say, is NOT GOOD ENOUGH!. Before yelling at them to 'Get Off Your Yard', Preach to them, tell them that money comes from computers (that'll get a chuckle), and of the theft that is Federal Income Tax. Tell them about the Federal Reserve Act, about Bretton Woods and Jeckyll Island. Tell them about PNAC, Agenda 21, CODEX Alimentarius, lying propaganda peddling manipulative fucking Madison Avenue, the RNC, the DNC, the NSA, the DHS, Signing Statements, Geoengineering, NDAA, etc. and so-on.
Tell them an Education is only really measured by their own ability to learn. Its not an accolade or a framed piece of paper.
Tell them that you are telling them all of this for their own good.
Tell them that knowing the truth is how to begin to fix it when their time comes. Then, to whatever extent you can, be an example (even if the youth around you are the children of others.) They love a rebel anyway and the fix is not solely their burden: its ours as well as parents, neighborhood adults and mentors.
dammit.
You make a very large assumption that feeling sorry for someone means that I am not and have not been doing for years what you rant about. Shithead. It's called empathy of which you seem to have none.
"Shithead. It's called empathy of which you seem to have none."
Oh the irony.
Dude, it's possible, just possible, that you both are fundamentally in agreement. No need for this ire.
Thanks Chump.
Kali
No shithead intent intended. I did not presume to question your empathy.
Hear hear!
You, good sir, are spot on. A pissed off, hopeless generation of youth is a recipe for terrible chaos.
A pissed off, [truly] educated generation of youth is the stuff of irrepressible revolution. Plant seeds everywhere. You'll be that crazy guy to a lot of people, but you'll be planting seeds.
I was that "crazy" planting seeds, dropping information into casual conversations. . . I still do, but this past year has made me more aware of being careful when I share - it's a shame, but the reality is most people are so behind the curve, and subject to fear tactics (see something, say something) - and DENIAL - that mostly I just smile and nod if I don't feel comfortable.
hell, even *here* there are many who don't want to acknowledge what's going on, beyond how to "trade" it. . .
(but your heart is definitely in the right place Chump, on both posts)
Right into your second sentence I was reminded of that lovely admonition from the DHS.
But it's so much fun to lol at their whinging over manipulated markets driving out retail investors!
Always good to hear from you; I wish our first real engagement hadn't gotten started off on the wrong foot, admittedly. ETA: As in, I allowed my own ire to replace rational discussion, and I am sorry for that fact.
for what it's worth, I don't remember that particular interaction - I quite often snark in my posts, and end up respecting those who do take a moment to reply, and it goes from there.
take care! (& keep yer head down, ha)
well said chump. Think about that all the time.
I think your theory is very much of a reality in practice...
It's like that scene in "The Color of Money" where Eddie Felson (Newman) brings Vince (Tom Cruise) into the pool hall & introduces him to Orvis... Orvis points out that Moselle is the best player & that there is this other dude who has the money...
Eddie Felson: Hey, let me give you the scoop... See the guy with the tie pin in his nose? That's Moselle. Him you stay away from.
Vince: No shit.
Eddie Felson: Grow up... (pause)... He's the main stick around here. You beat him, it scares away that gentleman. (points to a man in a cashmere coat).
Vince: Who's he?
Eddie Felson: Earl. He comes in with $5000 cash in his pocket.
Vince: Jesus.
Eddie Felson: Yeah. Runs the numbers. Orvis says he don't mind losing. He just don't like giving it away. You beat Moselle... old Earl there loses interest.
"Medicare and Medicaid are paid by taxes, they are not "free". I don't see anyone bitching about roads as being "free stuff promised to the elderly""
Yes you make a good point. It reminds of those ungrateful African slaves. Their masters built ENTIRE ships for them, provided them with tools for working on the sugar plantations, and provided them with free food. But they simply refused to appreciate any of it.
At least one descendant of slaves took a trip to Africa and observed bodies floating down a river, the result of Hutus and Tutsis slaughtering one another. He wrote a book admitting he was very conflicted because part of him was glad his ancestors had come to America - however unwillingly - and freed him from the barbarities of tribal rivalries. I forget his name.
Roads are 'free' worker-transports promised to companies (most often owned by stingy old people).
The government promises a whole bunch of shit to the plebes, but those are just promises emitted from a politician’s orifice during the campaign cycle while TV cameras and media types are running. After the campaign is over and “votes” have been cast, politicians in office shift those promises to the lobbyists on K-street and corporate donors. It’s the old switch-a-roo.
Actually, RH, the tens of millions of gubermint "workers" and ethnoid group entitlements continue to do quite well. Look at Trayvon's mom: already copyrighted the T-shirts and hoodies. Sec 8, medicaid, the ER, free food cards and an ENORMOUS underground economy also covering a lot of apparent slack and will continue to do so until the debt bombs explode. Then, game over.
Baby boomers hate Ron Paul, while the under-35s seem to love him.
Yeah, so all those under 35 OWSers rioting because the degree they got in womens studies funded with student loan debt they cannot pay back because their degree is worthless is living in mommies basement and is a Ron Paul supporter?
Might want to clarify that remark Mr Aziz, might I suggest something less sweeping?
Ron Paul does have his largest amount of support from young people. Just because OWS is louder than we are, and the media will actually cover them, does not mean they represent all of America's youth.
I think a contributing factor to youth-for-Ron-Paul growth is the fact that young are more likely to get their news online than older (no offense, guys, you all being the exception) groups.
If characterized as a loose generalization I could buy that, but I know a lot of people who are under 35 who are not RP supporters.
RP supporters of ALL ages are still in the minority. But the youth group is growing the fastest, which gives me some tiny amount of hope.
I don't know many people of any age who became RP supporter, then changed their mind and went back to anything else. Once an RP supporter, most stay that way.
I am 33, a Ron Paul supporter, and will go back to apathetic after this election. Pissing in the wind feels good at first, but the back spray sucks.
Be an apathetic voter, voting doesn't matter any much anymore. Its far more important to educate a few people to truly understand the message, than to convince 100's to vote once for something they don't understand.
If you educate/convert 10 people to RP, they'll each convert more. We know what exponential functions look like, now, don't we? Karl Marx's ideas were spread the same way. Lets turn it around. Many of the young people out there are smart, they have just never heard any argument other than the two-party options. Its not their fault really, we create an education system that gives them exposure to nothing else.
It is too late to save this country in its current form, IMO. But its not too late to try to get as many on board to pick up the pieces and carry on after it goes down. There is a huge lag time in trends of thought, and we can hope a few decades down the road, the message grows. Thats really all we can do, at this point. And if i can get a few dozen people in my community on my side, at least I have a few allies when TSHTF. Thats the way I see it, anyway.
30 here, same.
Also tired of the "but his foreign policy!" BS. As if things aren't bad enough at home. As if our current foreign policy is like, good, and stuff.
>the youth group is growing the fastest, which gives me some tiny amount of hope
Hope?
They probably saw Ron Paul in the movie "Bruno".
They have no clue about praxeology, catallactics, or history.
Many young RP supporters discovered him via Austrian econ. Praxeology was at the center of that discovery process. Its pretty hard to be interested in RP and not be exposed to Mises.
As far as "bruno", I hadn't heard of it, I just had to google it. I've never heard it mentioned by RP supporters, so I'll have to disagree with you.
How dare you make light of Perception Management(tm) ??!!!
You seem too preoccupied with putting words in the author's mouth, and nitpicking, to express dis/agreement with his basic premise. So I junked ya.
Yes, I am preoccupied with accuracy, junk that!
Is this baby boomer anonymous?
Hi, my name is X-Man and I like Ron Paul. He's the only candidate that isn't a complete and total sell-out
...the degree they got in womens studies...
You chauvinist pig! That's "bitterness studies"...Get it right!
huh, I thought "bitterness studies" were taken up by the college jocks who majored in "sports" then ended up couch surfing at their gaming pals one-bedroom apts, and finally went back to community college so they could find a jawb.
tired meme is tired.
I'll go out on a limb here, and guess that the majority of those who got degrees in women's studies aren't voting for Ron Paul, for obvious reasons.
all this link told us is that OF THOSE WHO VOTED for Paul, the age groups are these. as usual, the comments to the OP provide useful information.
one thing I'd love to see is the "M/F" ratio - then you can see whether your argument is valid, k.
And those 35 and younger are the taxpayers who are supposed to pay for all this mess? They CAN'T.
When taxes are raised both on these young people (those who are actually earning anything), and on their employers, at a time when interest rates are rising, and food/energy costs are rising, this ship is going down.
Then, these 35 and younger will be unemployed and destitute, which means they will easily be convinced to join up and be sent off to war. Easily convinced to work for the TSA, NSA, or local law enforcement. I like to believe they will rebel against this system, but it is likely that in the face of hunger they will become "good citizens" and carry us the rest of the way over the cliff.
Hey slappy I am 35 an doing okay. I see whats coming and made my arrangements. You may want to think I am off to war but I will be off alright. Just not to war. The older generation(s) are making a serious mistake if they think the young are going to stick around to clean this mess up.
I'm not surprised. If you are on ZH, you are probably an exception. (How many others your age are making the same arrangements?)
Even if you aren't going off to war, you will be affected by the events that unfold.
I have one or two bussies that on such a small extent are making preperations. You are absolutely right about that.
Sorry buddies. Bussies is kinda funny though
If your buddies are hussies, that works.
But yes, the sad fact is that those of us preparing will be looked at by our peers as "evil speculating hoarders" or "radical fringe survivalists".
You won't be joining the army, but another 35 yr old will, and he will be happy to break down your door and fill his pockets with whatever you have put aside.
That sounds unfortunate. However preperation goes across many aspects of things. I have a good sense of things, heightened awareness, and insomnia. If someone goes to bust down my door I wish them luck.