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Guest Post: The Circling Black Swans Of 2012
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds.com
The Circling Black Swans of 2012 (January 2, 2012)
The Imperial hubris of America's Elites offers up a tempting target for black swans, as suppressing the sources of instability only increases the odds of disruptive instability.
Longtime correspondent (and Oregon resident) R.S.D. recently made this observation about black swans:
I notice that a number of predictors for 2012 never mention the flock of black swans that are currently circling in the murk before us. While I appreciate their anonymity, I was reminded of their presence last night about 10 PM while working in my shop. I had the door open to an almost Springlike night when I heard quite a flock of Canadian Geese passing over, heading north. In December!
Well said, R.S.D. For an example of the Status Quo's confidence that the odds of a financial or political black swan disrupting their Empire are essentially zero, let's turn to "conservative" pundit George Will, one of the Status Quo's leading proponents of bloviated smugness.
Mr. Will begins his syndicated New Year's column by hugging himself with Imperial self-satisfaction: America is a net exporter of energy products for the first time in 62 years!
The unwary consumer of Mr. Will's self-congratulatory prose (he has a corner office in the sprawling Ministry of Propaganda) might wrongly interpret this to mean that America is a net exporter of energy: it is not. The U.S. is a net importer of over 9 million barrels of oil a day.
How dependent are we on foreign oil? (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
The United States consumed 19.1 million barrels per day (MMbd) of petroleum products during 2010, making us the world's largest petroleum consumer. The United States was third in crude oil production at 5.5 MMbd. But crude oil alone does not constitute all U.S. petroleum supplies. Significant gains occur, because crude oil expands in the refining process, liquid fuel is captured in the processing of natural gas, and we have other sources of liquid fuel, including biofuels. These additional supplies totaled 4.2 MMbd in 2010.
In 2010 the United States imported 11.8 million barrels per day (MMbd) of crude oil and refined petroleum products. We also exported 2.3 MMbd of crude oil and petroleum products during 2010, so our net imports (imports minus exports) equaled 9.4 MMbd.
Apparently Mr. Will is incapable of performing either simple math or a basic web search to confirm the breezy implications of his carefully vague confidence in a future of never-ending, low-cost surplus energy.
If he'd performed five minutes of journalism instead of spewing propaganda, he might have stumbled upon this report, which suggests that U.S. dependence on imported energy will rise going forward: US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy Projections in 2011
Much propaganda has been issued over the years about the hundreds of years of supply of energy the U.S. possesses, but journalism is supposed to ferret out the current facts as its foundation rather than begin with self-satisfied pontification.
If we consult the facts, we find the storied Bakken oil/gas formation currently produces 445,000 barrels a day, certainly a substantial quantity of energy but a mere sliver of America's daily consumption of 19 million barrels a day. According to the EIA report Bakken formation oil and gas drilling activity mirrors development in the Barnett, Bakken production, which averaged just over 2 thousand bbl/d in 2000, averaged more than 260 thousand bbl/d in 2010. This rise in production is the result of hundreds of horizontal wells being drilled and brought online.
Is this new source of domestic energy welcome? Of course. Will it some day replace the 9 million barrels imported from elsewhere? A variety of sources suggest reaching 1 million BPD would be an extraordinary accomplishment, and that projecting the recent growth to millions of barrels a day is more fantasy than fact.
If we had to summarize the Status Quo's confidence that no black swans will threaten its control in 2012, we might begin with its faith that the system's self-regulation will resolve all systemic challenges. Just as the Status Quo has placed all its chips on a single bet--that "growth" from debt-based consumption can be resumed with vast public borrowing and saving the predatory financial sector--it also bases its confidence on the system's self-regulation.
If the banking sector is riddled with fraud and embezzlement, then some minor tweaking of regulation will solve all issues. If demand for debt has collapsed, then the solution is for the Federal Government to borrow 10% of GDP every year to compensate for the decline of private debt and spending.
The faith is that extending and pretending will magically restore the "growth" the Status Quo needs to support its ballooning debt. Extending and pretending offers up the compelling illusion that the system's broken self-regulation is up to the task of fixing systemic problems.
The essence of Talib's "black swan" insight is that instabilities that are written off by the Status Quo as "extremely low probability" become high-probability when low-level systemic instabilities are suppressed by extend and pretend and endless propaganda.
The Status Quo has suppressed instability with brute force and propaganda for four long years; while the Elites are patting themselves on the back and confidently predicting they can safely navigate 2012 with more extend and pretend, the odds are increasingly favoring the emergence of "unlikely" disruptions.
Mr. Will is supremely confident that whatever happens in 2012 will be a mere "pebble in the river of American history." In the darkness overhead, we can hear the beating of unseen wings that promise to make a mockery of the Status Quo's supreme Imperial hubris.
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http://www.businessinsider.com/ecri-recession-call-growth-index-virtuall...
What black swans?
Ron Paul & Soros Connection??
just caught this not sure what to think.
frontpagemag.com and freedomcenter.org seem to be very conservative.
http://frontpagemag.com/2012/01/02/ron-pauls-soros-defense-plan/
front page mag is connected to freedomcenter.org this is their board of directors from their site:
BOARD OF DIRECTORS Officers Presiding Co-Chairs- Rev. Damon Lynch, Jr., Pastor, New Jerusalem Baptist Church
- Mr. John Pepper, former Chairman & CEO, The Procter & Gamble Company
Vice-Chairs- Mr. Marty Dunn,Esq., Dinsmore & Shohl, LLP
- Mr. Mitchell Habib, Chief Operating Officer, The Nielsen Company
Secretary- Mr. Mark Casella, Founder/CEO Coopertree Ltd
Treasurer- Mr. Chuck Brown, Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America, Inc
Honorary Co-Chairs- Mrs. Francie S. Hiltz, Honorary Co-Chair, Community Advocate
- Hon. Nathaniel R. Jones, Honorary Co-Chair, Of Counsel, Blank Rome, LLP
- Mrs. Marian Spencer, Honorary Co-Chair, Community Advocate,
- Mr. Edwin Rigaud, President and CEO, Enova Partners, LLC
- Mr. Ken Robinson, Vice President, Finance & Accounting, The Procter and Gamble Company
President and Cheif Executive Officer- Mr. Kim Robinson, The Freedom Center
Directorshttp://www.freedomcenter.org/about-us/executive-team/
When I clicked the link I saw two faces, Soros and David Horowitz. That told me all I needed to know.
I still don't know what to make of it...
Anti-Paul propaganda.
Look at the board and senior representatives. Lotta entrenched special interests go bye bye with Ronnie.
thanks, that's why I posted it here, for the input. it's like a gotcha piece connecting Paul with Frank on the eve of Iowa caucuses. now it makes sense.
certainly Cintas, P&G and Glenair would lose big pentagon money. definitely making sense now.
To wit:
according to FEC data John e Pepper former ceo of P&G was a campaign donor to Mitt Romney in 2007.
We can assume he still is and we can further assume he represents super-pac Romney supporters whose donations would not be available via FEC today.
Conclusion:
The GOP establishment is using frontpagemag.com & freedomcenter.org as a sort of 'legitimate' conservative and religious conduit, catered to iowa voters, to publish a hit piece on Paul right before the Iowa caucuses.
This point is further underscored in that john E Pepper, at least according to FEC data, has never donated money to the Paul campaign.
The end of the age of oil.
It does not matter one whit what is done at this point. Bio-fuels or otherwise.
The Age of Oil as primary mover of humanity is closing fast. It will of course power the coming war, Oil's last hurrah.
Thank goodness for that. Other people/ways will get some breathing room. Till then, all you logicians here can sit and fire blanks at people like me who have the keys to the other side.
ori
/the-plan/
Aerosolized Fukushima Plutonium In Europe At Levels 4X Lower Than Chernobyl
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22206700
Only 4 times lower despite the distance from Fuku vs Chernobyl.
Dont be a rube. Do your own research. Paul has been pushing for this cut back 3 years before the panel was assembled. Of course he (and several other republicans) back such a strategy. This does not mean he's in bed with Soros, only that he will use any means nessecary to get this country fiscally back on track. As one of the comments on that webpage said: its like the 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon when relating to folks in that field. Add to this that many military cut-back people are left leaning types with similar assoicates....
I despise Frank but he was spot on in saying:
"It is very clear that a very serious debate on this issue [military spending] has to take place”
Read Ron Pauls take on this:
http://paul.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1875&Ite...
thanks, appreciate it, that's why I posted it, wanted to sort of crowd source it in here.
so according to FEC data John e Pepper former ceo of P&G was a campaign donor to Mitt Romney in 2007.
We can assume he still is and we can further assume he represents super-pac Romney supporters whose donations would not be available via FEC today.
Conclusion:
The GOP establishment is using frontpagemag.com & freedomcenter.org as a sort of 'legitimate' conservative and religious conduit, catered to iowa voters, to publish a hit piece on Paul right before the Iowa caucuses.
This point is further underscored in that john E Pepper, at least according to FEC data, has never donated money to the Paul campaign.
There will be no "black swans" as long as the US$ remains the world's reserve currency. This will continue as long as the Saudi's price their crude in US$ which will continue as long as the US maintains the world's largest and most effective military force. The US can and will run trillion $ deficits as rates drift lower and lower. He who has the biggest military makes the rules and the US rules. The trillion dollar military budget passed w/o desent. The Saudi's just purchased $50 billion in fighter jets. Get over it. Nothing matters except the US military power which allows for continued dollar dominance and deficits. BTW all other currencies are also crap.
Let us know when you wake up from your neocon-induced militaristic wet dream --- or nightmare, as the case may be.
You do not have to be a neo con to realize that the whole pyramid has the US military at its base.
There's a ginormous Black Swan circling over the Straits of Hormuz. Gettin lower and lower...INSTANT post-peak oil.
If you can see it , it isn't black and probably not a swan either.
ori
The productive portion of the economy is down 6.8% since 2007.
http://usa-wethepeople.com/2011/12/what-is-the-real-gross-domestic-product-down-6-8-from-2007/
peak oil bitchez - da biggest swany of dem all!
Belle: So, Swanny...
Benjy Stone: Ma, he's an actor, not a river.
The unwary consumer of Mr. Will's self-congratulatory prose (he has a corner office in the sprawling Ministry of Propaganda) might wrongly interpret this to mean that America is a net exporter of energy: it is not
Will's logic is akin to the "Black Friday" logic in which "loss leader" sales, would eventually add to the bottom line by being made up in volume of sales...
We do not see many black swans here in Virginia. But a lot of people mistake our brant for geese. And, there is a lot of difference at the dinner table.
Tell me about it. Those brants have no manners at all.
"America is a net exporter of energy products for the first time in 62 years"
Maybe Mr. Will was referring to the non-existent Red Bull market in the 1950's when he was a fledgling commentator.
I always wanted to smack that smug fucker George Will in the face if I ever actually met him --- just before I shove his prissy bow tie down his marionette-like, pouty little mouth.
I got dibs already...from a long time ago...he has an aversion to my right to protect myself & family as I see fit.
He is probably netting out all the Vampire Squid derivatives? I find that paper oil is difficult to get into the gas tank and doesn't run very well?
Red bull gives you wings.
Yes, but in doing so it has unfortunate side effects.
a short note for those who should know better:
black swans are not identified before they happen. we are sitting here identifying things that could happen. great. but none of these things are black swans, because they are part of the conversation. true black swans were part of no conversation at all, or a conversation totally obscure to the mainstream.
but just for the sake of argument, the collapse of american imperialism under its weight is the biggest white/grey swan.
http://azizonomics.com/2011/12/30/the-edge-of-bankruptcy/
So would it be a black swan if the market(s) just go uo this year and no bad shit really happens?
Precisely kinda, getting closer but no cigar, yet. Maybe.
Sure would be one helluv an outlier, eh?
The BP oil spill was a black swan event.
Yeah... Just like the Exxon Valdez...
most 'merikans think oil is forever - to them - peak oil is a BIG FUCKING BLACK SWAN (BFBS).
'member - most at ZH have IQs slightly higher than room temp - we be special crazies...
Are they the same people that don't think global warming is happening? That we have 7B people in the planet with absolutely no effect to the environment?
The weather in 2011 was more active than in the whole decade of the 80's.
The weather in 2011 was more active than in the whole decade of the 80's.
LOL... you're actually serious?
Those of us who lived through that decade know otherwise.
Global warming is bullshit.
Wow, since you put it like that, it must be true
:/
Just got back from India. Impressive, Fascinating place. But clear evidence, at least to me, that humans can fuck up the environment.
Lemme guess, you live in a populated place like Oklahoma? "I don't see no 'fect of people's on the Vironmeny"
(And for the record, I remember even part of the '60's)
So, my speaking the truth is somehow stupid, pushy, or ridiculous? Because you say so?
I've lived lots of places, and yes, the global warming religion IS bullshit.
I said nothing about making a mess - you pulled that out to change the subject.
umm, and I should believe you speak the truth because....
I think I'll stick with the conclusion drawn from the National Academy of Sciences. You know, the same guys that analyzed and found the 9/11 report wanting.
OOooh, such cognnitive disonance I am causing you now. Government-paid scientists - are they good guys or bad guys? Mommy, my brain hurts.
Tell you what - you stick with the paid for "truth" pedlled by the paid-for-Industry-shills.
The ones that told you cigarattes are harmless, the Pinto won't explode, and snort all the Asbestos you want. Oh yeah, and the BP Oil Spill never happened.
Global warming is BS, and I'm sorry that your green stocks are going to $0
Global warming is so yesterday... Nowadays it's called "climate change"...
I remember in the 70's they were worried about the next ICE AGE fast approaching... I guess the research grants for that ran out...
The ice age would be the effect of melting the ice caps on the north pole by diverting fresh water down and disrupting the flow of the gulf stream. if you can't see the climate is changing you must be looking at a different world. i dont see why this is a political issue? I mean look at china's air, you really think that activities such as that will have no effect on the long term health of the climate whatsoever. really? i'd like to know why increasing co2 levels will never, ever have an effect, like it does, on say, the planet venus. i'm really interested to know why the climate isn't changing, like it appears to be.
Let me put it to you this way...
I'll go by what SCIENCE tells me that the Earth is roughly 4.5 BILLION YEARS old... It has survived plate tectonics, asteroid bombardments, snowball earth, probably countless coronal mass ejections & God knows what else...
I didn't say the climate wasn't changing... WHAT I DID allude to is that the puny contribution to what modern man has added to the list is insignificant when you consider the larger picture...
The Earth was here a long time before humans were... It'll LAUGH AT US for many aeons after we've done away with ourselves...
the argument is whether it's man-made on a glodabl scale. There's no evidence saying that it is.
I didn't say the earth wouldn't survive. But the argument that it has survived doesn't mean we will. And saying there is no evidence is just a cop out, sorry and ignores the ice caps melting, ignore various weather phenomena, and ignores the rise in temperature, which very well could be due to things we don't understand. But it could be us too. Care to play Russian roulette much? But forget all that. We shouldn't pollute the earth and the atmosphere because I don't want to live like i'm in Beijing where its harmful to breathe. There is evidence of that.
Rick M,
You seem to be an inquisitive fellow. I will provide you with some scientific answers to your plainative query:
"i'd like to know why increasing co2 levels will never, ever have an effect, like it does, on say, the planet venus. i'm really interested to know why the climate isn't changing, like it appears to be."
I'm doing all this by memory, so don't expect references. If anything concerns you, remember, "Google Is Your Friend!" I'm sure that they would have taught you that in Elementary. Anyway, here we go:
(1) Venus. Consistently held up by the Warmists as the fiery Hell that we fossil-fuel users are consigning every member of humanity towards, with blatant disregard as long as we receive our monthly stipend from Big Oil. "Runaway greenhouse!!!" Eeek! It's HOT on Venus! (Yes, 870 degrees Farenheit on the surface). EEEk! We're all going to DIE!!!!!1!!1!!!.
OK, Rick, just calm down a bit - take some Ritalin if needs be. Here are the scientific facts about Venus:
* The atmospheric pressure of Venus is 93 bar - i.e. 93 times the Earth's atmospheric pressure. No big deal? This is equivalent to being 930 metres below the ocean surface. Lots of pressure....
* The pressure (i.e. the "weight") of the atmosphere of Venus makes it so dense, that 1 cubic metre of the atmosphere at ground level weighs 67 kilograms. This is 6.7% of the density of water! Try breathing this atmosphere without gills....
* Even if the Venusian atmosphere was 100% oxygen, at this density and pressure, the surface temperature would be HOTTER with 100% oxygen than it is with 96.5% CO2.
* The level of CO2 in the Venusian atmosphere is 96.5%. On Earth, it is 0.038%, having risen from 0.028% at the "pre-industrial" wet dream timeline prior to the 20th Century. This is wayyyy less than Venus. On my rough calculation, Earth's present 0.038% concentration is one 2,500th of the Venusian concentration. Even if it doubled, quadrupled or whatever, it would not come anywhere near the Venusian concentration or density.
* Bottom line: CO2levels have no effect on Venusian atmospheric or land temperatures.
(2) The climate is changing.
Secondly, as per Rick M: " i'm really interested to know why the climate isn't changing, like it appears to be."
* Rick, Rick, Rick ...... the climate IS changing, it ALWAYS has changed,and it will CONTINUE to change in the future. The extraordinary, almost quasi-religious belief by Warmists that the climate is a static system (and only being "upset" by mankind), is beyond rational belief.
* We are still emerging from the Little Ice Age (Google it) of the 16th/17th century, which followed the Medieval Warm Period of the 10th/14th century, when it was hotter than it is at present, despite the fairly apparent lack of SUVs and coal-firedpower stations.
* For your homework, research the Viking Norse settlements in Greenland. The Warmists shriek all day long, tear their hair out, and scratch at their faces while howling at the moon when you confront them with the scientific evidence of Viking settlements in Greenland from about 1200 to 1500, which had to be abandoned as a result of encroaching cold and ice sheets. This, Rick, is evidence, not supposition, nor hiding the decline as so-called "climate scientists" are inclined to do.
Rick, a seemingly smart fellow like yourself will soon embrace the logical conclusion that cold=bad, warm=good, at least as far as it extends to human survival.
Think science, not psuedo-religion, and you will soon find yourself on the path to the Truth.....
I guess the research grants for that ran out.
More or less, yeah.
And, yes, "Global Warming" has been replaced for the scammers' convenience. I just don't want to let them off the hook.
Why is it a scam? I don't get that either. I find it hard to believe all these scientists are in some nefarious plot.
The "nefarious plot" is of elegant simplicity - hypothesise disaster scenarios (without one scintilla of the Scientific Method being employed) and be paid huge sums of money for out-shrieking the other doomers.
Simple, really.....
Perhaps THIS will help.
There are, in actuality, NO "black swan events" at all --- just varying levels of pro-status-quo, "mainstream" denials of reality, and suppressions of the truth and inevitable financial blowback.
It's not a "black swan" when I sign up for 10 new credit cards and charge them up to their credit limits of $10,000 each in one year while making $20,000 annually, and then suddenly default on all that debt. Refusing to adopt a big-picture, non-mainstream outlook does not absolve anyone from suffering the effects of inevitability.
The main stream is still in denial, even at this late stage.
Japan's "Fuckisheema" qualifies for a Black Swan in my book.
Er, sort of. Black swans in general are high-risk low-probability events that are effectively zeroed out in modeling but still exist (and reinforce other black swans) in the real world. Fukushima's a good example - assumptions were made that in the event of an earthquake of sufficient magnitude, the reactors would be able to shut down. In the event of a tsunami, the reactors could be shut down. Yet it was the reinforcing nature of earthquake followed shortly thereafter by the tsunami that hadn't been adequately modeled, in great part because of cost. The models said it was too low a probability an event to prepare for given the costs involved - the models were wrong, now Japan is becoming a radioactive wasteland.
The financial crisis worked the same way. Selling counterparty risk insurance is a great business in most cases, because according to the modeling of any given party, the chance that the need for payout is small, which means that 99% of the time, the amount being paid out is far below the amount being paid in premiums. The black swan emerges though when risks become chained, so that two or three parties suddenly being forced into a payout situation causes a domino like chain reaction as the insurers, who are also hedged, then have to pay out beyond their immediate ability to do so.
In effect, the Lehman Brothers collapse is still happening, but it's reached a stage where entire countries are now being engulfed by it. Mostly, up until now, the collapse has been happening behind closed doors - though periodically it spawns a black swan such as MF Global failing that becomes public. Most people see the black swans, and think that they are rare and isolated events, not realizing that these are manifestations of a larger problem. However, people ARE becoming aware of what's going on - when you see too many black swans, it's hard not to begin to get suspicious and to start digging deeper. When the tipping point is reached, then a crisis of confidence occurs ... trust, the foundation of the economy, disappears. I think that we;re getting close to the point where that will happen in the United States - maybe this year, maybe next, but soon.
MF (missing funds) Global became the 19th primary dealer just 6 months before on the power of the Corzine Machine.
All I can say regarding Mr. Will's willingness to fall on his words....4 more years! 4 more years! Seems like Mr. Will is getting ready for 4 more years.
Spiral Eyes - you make a perfectly reasonable comment, but on a little finer grain, it is hard to specify a line dividing what is in the public conversation and what is not. There were a few voices warning of a possible earthquake and subsequent disaster at Fukushima. They weren't in the mainstream press and even most here did not hear about them. But that doesn't mean people were not talking about it.
The whole Black Swan idea is a sort of static abstraction and approximation of a social dynamic. It is useful as a conversation starter, and to shake a few people awake, but as always, reality is much richer and nuanced.
d'oh!
double post.
oh well. might as well use it to share something about nassim taleb:
http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb04/taleb_index.html
And then after that, they lol'd.
Hey, if the USA exports "energy products" then it doesn't matter if the Strait of Hormuz is closed. So W T F are we spending all this time and money in the middle east on?
Defending the dollar? Russia? China?
Freedom?
lol
literally
Israel.
If we can't get crude then we can't produce the products to export. It's mostly gasoline since US sales have dropped and South America is hungry. We still import near 50% of the crude we use
i was under the impression that the US was a net exporter of fuels now for the first time in 50 years...not the feedstock...and since we can't export natural gas that isn't going to happen for some time.
You mean the rest of the world might have virtually their entire supply of (US-produced) military aggression, invasion and neo-imperialism cut off? What a shame.
"We fight them over there so that we can evetually fight our own citizens over here!"
Yeah. Enumeees furin an doe'-mestic, God-damn' it.
Kin only sniff them little bastards out when they break down in the face of the Apocalyptic Godless hoards.
Feemah 'em.
Put that one there financial guy into the Goldman barracks so's MDB can educate his ass in the fine points of economics, patriotism, finance and selfless investments.
(Overflight of F-22's to strains of God Bless America and cheers of detainees, for like Winston Smith, they have come to love Bigbrover)
"WTF are we spending all this time and money in the middle east on?" Well, we are bringing "DEMOCRACY" AND PEACE to the MIDDLE EAST, unfortunetly FIGHTING for peace is like FUCKING for virginity...
"Fighting for someone freedom is like fucking for someone virginity." Dave Rabbit, Radio First Termer, Vietnam, 1968.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-IdlRiAunI
Psssst... it's the oil (and the opium). If it was about bringing democracy, we could start right next door in Mexico, that place is a fucking mess. But, it's not about democracy, it's about oil and drugs, baby.
No sex or rock n' roll?
Dawg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sex and rock 'n roll is prohibited in the middle east. Boring place.
You do realize what that means?
Crude comes in, unemployment destroys consumption, refinery capacity becomes "spare", that spare capacity keeps refining and the output gets sold to those with less than spare refinery capacity.
It doesn't mean not one thing relevant to US crude requirements. It's refined product. Not crude. We export it because the refinery capacity is there.
This is like hating war. You can have peace any time you want it. Just surrender.
Ditto oil consumption. You can stop consuming oil any time you want. Just stop delivering food to cities via truck.
Oil vey
Northeast Ohio rocked by 11th earthquake linked to Youngstown injection wellshttp://www.ohio.com/news/local-news/northeast-ohio-rocked-by-11th-earthq...
'Fracking' blamed for 4.0 earthquake in Ohio
http://bit.ly/vhUvOn
CNN: Official: 4 Ohio fluid-injection wells cannot open in wake of quake .http://on.cnn.com/tu5jK1
i don't know why i find this funny but i really do.
Wait a minute...theres oil under Youngstown Ohio?
Invade Detroit!!!...alert the Great Lakes Fleet!!!
So that's why the Cayohaga River caught fire in'69.
Shit, '69 again, right there with Aretha.
The whole point of central skanks and government cartel enforcers is to PREVENT system self regulation.
BINGO!!!
This (2012) be the year gray/black Cygnets will mature and fly...
Trading ranges to be broken on the down side.
The hopium will evaporate in the face of exponential growth in volume and complexity of fragile financial systems across the globe.
So where to from here? Go "long". It's the contrarian thing to do.
The black swan will be a false white swan of hope.
As it gets closer it will be clear it has venomous fangs and a whip tail and talons instead of webbed feet.
"hope is the enemy" are words to live by in the world of financial management...something i might add CNBC should have plastered on their walls when they come to work...instead of me.
The last evil from the box.
It's not even a black swan anymore, it's just what's going to happen. The fiat ponzi is being pushed to the limit with the ultra low rates and ultra high debts of every major country.
TheSilverJournal.com
so if it is planned it is not a black swan. if the plan is depraved enough is it a jackal? can a jackal birth black swans?
massive capacity destruction is the plan unleashing the biggest black swan of all, the fall of the entire western empire system.
Just the antichrist.
So the anti-Christ is a black.........
Oh, never the fuck mind.
Way too twisted for the first business day Kunks, way too far twisted.
With worldwide population at 7 Billion...which requires high-level energy sources and distribution of food, energy, sewage, transportation...any simple thing can tip the cart over and cause large-scale loss of society and life.
If it was just a few hundred million population running around the globe...then there would be new places to go to (run away)...but now you can only run into other populations. So its like we are all living in the Matrix and the fiat currencies are Agent Smith.
Its going to be a flock of black swans.
TYLER: Breaking: Cuban officials refusal to confirm or deny #Castro rumours add to speculation gov't know he is dead.
Unconfirmed reports of Castro's death flying tonight
Kim needed a friend.
Chavez is a CIA plant.... gave Castro cancer.
I long to live in a world where everything is not a CIA potted plant.
I'm sure you can find at least one person at ZH to take the other side of THAT trade.
Unconfirmed reports of Castro's death flying tonight
Are you sure he wasn't just partying it up on New Years with Generalissimo Juan Francisco Franco?
Looks like he's died several times in the last few years.
Much propaganda has been issued over the years about the hundreds of years of supply of energy the U.S. possesses, but journalism is supposed to ferret out the current facts as its foundation rather than begin with self-satisfied pontification.
-Charles Hugh-Smith
It's not propaganda. It's the truth, but as usual the nuts here aren't aware of facts in the real world. We have hundreds of years worth of energy in the ground, but what we're running out of is easy to get energy. We may have indeed reached peek oil production, but thats not the same thing as the end of production. We will continue to have fossil fuels available to us but it is going to become much more difficult to extract, and thus much more expensive, unless some technological breakthrough changes that.
fossil fuels? What is that?
Geriatric Flatulence.
You know, like Jon McCain or Robert Byrd or Ted Stevens or Strom Thurman.
Oh wait, those are (or were) fossil fools!
Not bad, akak. Not bad.
Don't skimp on the accolades. That was great!
Ya I read this in another place, No one ever talkes about the declining rate and how much it takes just to make up for that. This quote is from another sight I thought he said it a lot better then I can.
The global liquids "production" running at 88 mmbpd, and assuming 5% declines, we need to add 4.4 mmbpd new capacity every year to stand still. So you are right, this one field will offset about 10% of global declines for 1 year. We need to discover about 10 of these every year.
Ya your right the days of cheap Oil finds are over... and yet we need the Oil more then ever.
the US has a shitload of easy to get nat gas and coal, so no, we're not running out of easy to get "energy". we have hundreds of years worth of both. Its the easy-to-get crude thats the problem, at least for the big oil companies.
the number of nutty shills like dfctomm on this site makes me laugh.
so much bullshit, so few pixels
Really? The natural gas is so easy to get at that it must be mined(released by the mining of coal) or fracted out. The total available amount of natural gas available in the U.S. was just revised down as well, signifigantly. Now onto coal. We've been mining the good, relatively low sulfur, bituminous coal of the SE U.S. for over 100 years now. I know a lot of coal towns in SW virginia and Pennsylvania that wish you were right. That is not to say that we don't still have 100s of years left of these energy sources, but they again are hard to get out, or of inferior quality like Western high sulfur coal.
We have hundreds of years worth of energy in the ground, but what we're running out of is easy to get energy.
YES!!!
Correct name is Canada geese. Canadians are people...not geese.
I thought Canadians were maple leaves --- or is it "leafs"?
In either case, most Canadians remind me much more of sheep than of any wildfowl. I'll start to grudgingly respect them when they finally take that bitch of a foreign figurehead monarch off their currency, and when they learn to say the difference between "Don" and "Dawn".
in quebec they are clearly frogs.
You better call them "les granouilles" in Quebec, or the language police will haul you off to prison.
You probably think I'm joking, but in Quebec, speaking English in public is practically the Canadian equivalent of wearing a suicide bomb vest into a packed MacDonalds while screaming "Allahu akbar!". Just go and try it --- I dare ya!
The French Canadians speak Arabic?
Get 'em a bit liquored-up (which, by the way, is not hard to do) and it sure does sound like it!
LOL Truth!
i have some great stories to tell about montreal. suffice to say montreal women are hot,,,until they start talking. tabernac.
You dare someone? I have been to the Quebec City Festival several times. Ratio of woman to men? 10:1 You'd have to be DEAD to not get laid in that setting. Language doesn't matter in that environment, only the uantity of your money. (The Canadian military ships the entire regiment of the "Van Doos" off on exercise just before the Carnival starts.)
Party on, Garth
Oh, don't get me wrong, I almost invariably LOVE Canadians as individuals --- merely pointing out that, when it comes to their social and political culture, they can be just as fucked-up as USAians, merely in different ways.
"I'll start to grudgingly respect them when they finally take that bitch of a foreign figurehead monarch off their currency, and when they learn to say the difference between "Don" and "Dawn"."
Dawwwn, go away I'm no good for youuu...ROTFL!!!
Friggin excellent akak!!!
Agreed.........Akak get's it!
Endorsing "Haggage"........on their coin and currency products is a form of Stockholm Syndrome
I'd love to purchase some gold and silver products from alot of locations.....but only after they remove the old Hag
As an aside.....That song is way before my time.....but NTL...I always thought it was pretty good.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bE40KM4SGAY
"Haggage"! LOL!
I own a handful of Canadian coins, but you can be damned sure that I have every single one of them bitch-side-down in EVERY one of the cases or flips! Honestly, even with the ugly slew of dead presidents on US coins, I am positively embarrassed for Canadians to see that absurd meaningless crowned dowager on all of theirs.
The song was way before mine too...its a classic though.
Further back, Glenn Miller...but ya gotta be in the mood ;-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CI-0E_jses&feature=related
I was once watching with a Canadian a television re-election commercial for senator Don Young, which featured his daughter Dawn Young pitching his case, when the Canadian guy actually said "Hey look, how funny --- they both have the same name!"
(insert palm faceplant here)
Glad to know someone else inhabits the same astral plane...lol.
The other day one of my buds had a 3' putt and yipps it about 10' past the cup. Statred shouting at himself, yelling about being a "putz".
I started laughing and everybody else looked at me kinda odd.
Like uh, what dude?
Putz. He said putz. Get it putz?
Then again he's not Canadian either, so maybe that's why its not funny.
BTW, ever notice how Canadians living in the US are embarassed to admit being from the Great White North?
Kinda odd beings that most Americans overseas don't like admit being American often saying they're form Canada.
Doesn't make them funnier, either.
"Kinda odd beings that most Americans overseas don't like admit being American often saying they're form Canada.
Doesn't make them funnier, either."
I think I could explain away my drawl as being from Southern Canada...might be funny to try...Hey ya'll, ehh?
Or not...lol.
OMG. Reminds me of one of my buds. Met him in grad school. He was from the Virginias and had a riot of a souther accent, mixed in with some of the twanginess of the Appalachians. We all used to call him "Crazy" Fred (Pseudenom in the proper manner of 12 step programs and the first derivative, Fight Club) Well, Fred used to call everybody "Sport Rocket" and have a few other perfectly unique choice phraes. He went on to become a senior aide to a very famous US Senator, a la Animal House.
Now, if your accent is anything like Fred's, won't work. But if you've the charm and character of Fred, anybody'd believe you. Probably why he made it in politics :)
Lot of us southern boys know how to turn on the charm.
LOL
Points to ya'll.
I was in the Canadian Airforce for 20 years. Back in the 1970' I was on exercise in Churchill, Manitoba in Feburay. Joint exercise with the Americans.
My Sargent walks into our office we had set up and asked " Have you got that youall loaded yet? I said " What the fuck is a youall?" Just then an American Major walked through the door and said "You'all got my airplane loaded yet?
10' past the cup on a 3 footer is more of a power surge than a yip...
Speaking of PUTTS... Ever heard when someone misses a putt short they say "Hit it Alice"... Common thought was that "Alice" referred to Alice Cramden of Honeymooners fame (but nobody ever made the connection)... The truth of the story is that "Alice" is actually "ALYSS" (Peter Alyss - famous British golf announcer, who missed a putt short & was criticizing himself)...
I always say, "Hit it, bitch", and sidestep any long stories about the phrase.
Besides the possibility that Castro is dead i don't know where to begin with this post. I guess i would say by "Uncle Gorilla'ing" interest rates the Fed's leave open the possibility of growth...depending on whether government policies promote said activity (for almost the entirety of the US and most of the world for that matter this is not the case.) I'd still stay long the energy producers...North Dakota is about it...and Alberta. If the Utica Shale in Eastern Ohio is for real (and the earthquakes don't take down the state of course!) then that state is a possibility as well. LOT of potential there if the State of Ohio becomes "the next Saudi Arabia."
If Castro is dead, do we invade the Bay of Pigs? Or blockade Havana? Will North Korea intervene?
WE GOTTA DO SOMETHING!
UNLEASH THE HOOOUNDDDSSS!!!
We offer Rupert Murdoch as a hostage. Then we invade. And set up Mafia-run casinos built by Army Corps of Engineers on day 2.
So, its like deja vu all over again ;-)
Looks like communist dictators picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue
lol...theres always one to take his place...they never run out of demigods, just other peoples sweat.
I'm sure there will be dancing in the streets in Miami if confirmed ;-)
Russians aren't very good dancers.
What about north Minneapolis?
50 year anniversary of Operation Northwoods... The 'Illuminati' have a sick sense of humor...
Sweet.
Talk about a sense of humor. :)
Deeply appreciated.
"So, it's like deja vu all over again ;-)"
Propellerheads - History Repeating (1997).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1XdlanT6Ds&feature=related (4:55)
shirley bassey-History Repeating.mp4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2D5SK5FCM4&feature=related (4:03)
smoke some cohibas hopefully.
Full reason to reopen relations with Cuba.
Cigars.
Well, maybe a few others shouldn't be writ here.
Rent a jet-ski in Key West and you can be on the beach at Varadero in about two hours.
Gasoline/Diesel is forever. Oil? Who cares? China is building 6 dozen LFTR plants and synth fuel production facilities as you read this. Once up and running, a gallon of gasoline will cost $.056 to produce (the more powerful 87 octaine of course!).
Bet 99% of you dirt bags didn't even know 87 octane has more power in it than 93/94 huh? Figures.
Octane and power eh? Try mixing a little pcp with your next rock; much better delusions, much much better...
Good stuff.