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Guest Post: The Circling Black Swans Of 2012

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds.com

The Circling Black Swans of 2012   (January 2, 2012)

The Imperial hubris of America's Elites offers up a tempting target for black swans, as suppressing the sources of instability only increases the odds of disruptive instability.

Longtime correspondent (and Oregon resident) R.S.D. recently made this observation about black swans:

 

I notice that a number of predictors for 2012 never mention the flock of black swans that are currently circling in the murk before us. While I appreciate their anonymity, I was reminded of their presence last night about 10 PM while working in my shop. I had the door open to an almost Springlike night when I heard quite a flock of Canadian Geese passing over, heading north. In December!

Well said, R.S.D. For an example of the Status Quo's confidence that the odds of a financial or political black swan disrupting their Empire are essentially zero, let's turn to "conservative" pundit George Will, one of the Status Quo's leading proponents of bloviated smugness.

Mr. Will begins his syndicated New Year's column by hugging himself with Imperial self-satisfaction: America is a net exporter of energy products for the first time in 62 years!

The unwary consumer of Mr. Will's self-congratulatory prose (he has a corner office in the sprawling Ministry of Propaganda) might wrongly interpret this to mean that America is a net exporter of energy: it is not. The U.S. is a net importer of over 9 million barrels of oil a day.

How dependent are we on foreign oil? (U.S. Energy Information Administration)

 

The United States consumed 19.1 million barrels per day (MMbd) of petroleum products during 2010, making us the world's largest petroleum consumer. The United States was third in crude oil production at 5.5 MMbd. But crude oil alone does not constitute all U.S. petroleum supplies. Significant gains occur, because crude oil expands in the refining process, liquid fuel is captured in the processing of natural gas, and we have other sources of liquid fuel, including biofuels. These additional supplies totaled 4.2 MMbd in 2010.

In 2010 the United States imported 11.8 million barrels per day (MMbd) of crude oil and refined petroleum products. We also exported 2.3 MMbd of crude oil and petroleum products during 2010, so our net imports (imports minus exports) equaled 9.4 MMbd.

Apparently Mr. Will is incapable of performing either simple math or a basic web search to confirm the breezy implications of his carefully vague confidence in a future of never-ending, low-cost surplus energy.

If he'd performed five minutes of journalism instead of spewing propaganda, he might have stumbled upon this report, which suggests that U.S. dependence on imported energy will rise going forward: US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy Projections in 2011

Much propaganda has been issued over the years about the hundreds of years of supply of energy the U.S. possesses, but journalism is supposed to ferret out the current facts as its foundation rather than begin with self-satisfied pontification.

If we consult the facts, we find the storied Bakken oil/gas formation currently produces 445,000 barrels a day, certainly a substantial quantity of energy but a mere sliver of America's daily consumption of 19 million barrels a day. According to the EIA report Bakken formation oil and gas drilling activity mirrors development in the Barnett, Bakken production, which averaged just over 2 thousand bbl/d in 2000, averaged more than 260 thousand bbl/d in 2010. This rise in production is the result of hundreds of horizontal wells being drilled and brought online.

Is this new source of domestic energy welcome? Of course. Will it some day replace the 9 million barrels imported from elsewhere? A variety of sources suggest reaching 1 million BPD would be an extraordinary accomplishment, and that projecting the recent growth to millions of barrels a day is more fantasy than fact.

If we had to summarize the Status Quo's confidence that no black swans will threaten its control in 2012, we might begin with its faith that the system's self-regulation will resolve all systemic challenges. Just as the Status Quo has placed all its chips on a single bet--that "growth" from debt-based consumption can be resumed with vast public borrowing and saving the predatory financial sector--it also bases its confidence on the system's self-regulation.

If the banking sector is riddled with fraud and embezzlement, then some minor tweaking of regulation will solve all issues. If demand for debt has collapsed, then the solution is for the Federal Government to borrow 10% of GDP every year to compensate for the decline of private debt and spending.

The faith is that extending and pretending will magically restore the "growth" the Status Quo needs to support its ballooning debt. Extending and pretending offers up the compelling illusion that the system's broken self-regulation is up to the task of fixing systemic problems.

The essence of Talib's "black swan" insight is that instabilities that are written off by the Status Quo as "extremely low probability" become high-probability when low-level systemic instabilities are suppressed by extend and pretend and endless propaganda.

The Status Quo has suppressed instability with brute force and propaganda for four long years; while the Elites are patting themselves on the back and confidently predicting they can safely navigate 2012 with more extend and pretend, the odds are increasingly favoring the emergence of "unlikely" disruptions.

Mr. Will is supremely confident that whatever happens in 2012 will be a mere "pebble in the river of American history." In the darkness overhead, we can hear the beating of unseen wings that promise to make a mockery of the Status Quo's supreme Imperial hubris.

 

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Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:34 | 2027411 knukles
knukles's picture

What black swans?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:09 | 2027474 gangland
gangland's picture

Ron Paul & Soros Connection??

just caught this not sure what to think.

frontpagemag.com and freedomcenter.org seem to be very conservative.

http://frontpagemag.com/2012/01/02/ron-pauls-soros-defense-plan/

 

front page mag is connected to freedomcenter.org this is their board of directors from their site:

BOARD OF DIRECTORS Officers Presiding Co-Chairs
  • Rev. Damon Lynch, Jr., Pastor, New Jerusalem Baptist Church
  • Mr. John Pepper, former Chairman & CEO, The Procter & Gamble Company
Vice-Chairs
  • Mr. Marty Dunn,Esq., Dinsmore & Shohl, LLP
  • Mr. Mitchell Habib, Chief Operating Officer, The Nielsen Company
Secretary
  • Mr. Mark Casella, Founder/CEO Coopertree Ltd
Treasurer
  • Mr. Chuck Brown, Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing North America, Inc
Honorary Co-Chairs
  • Mrs. Francie S. Hiltz, Honorary Co-Chair, Community Advocate
  • Hon. Nathaniel R. Jones, Honorary Co-Chair, Of Counsel, Blank Rome, LLP
  • Mrs. Marian Spencer, Honorary Co-Chair, Community Advocate,
  • Mr. Edwin Rigaud, President and CEO, Enova Partners, LLC
  • Mr. Ken Robinson, Vice President, Finance & Accounting, The Procter and Gamble Company
President and Cheif Executive Officer
  • Mr. Kim Robinson, The Freedom Center
Directors
  • Mrs. Shakila Ahmad, Director, Allergy & Asthma Specialty Center
  • Mr. Robert Blackwell, Founder and CEO, Electronic Knowledge Interchange
  • Bishop E. Lynn Brown, Retired Bishop CME Church
  • Dr. John Bryant, Community Advocate
  • Mr. Phil Castellini, Chief Operating Officer, Cincinnati Reds
  • Mr. Alfonso Cornejo, President, Hispanic Chamber Cincinnati USA
  • Mr. Thomas S. Crain, Retired Managing Director, Scudder Stevens & Clark
  • Mr. Bruce Gordon, Retired Executive, Retail Markets Divison of Verizon
  • Mrs. Beverly Grant, Vice President, The Procter & Gamble Company
  • Mr. J. Phillip Holloman, President & COO, Cintas Corporation
  • Mr. Peter Kaufman, Chairman & CEO, Glenair, Inc.
  • Mrs. Leslie Kreines, Community Advocate
  • Mr. Mitchell Livingston, Vice President for Student Affairs, University of Cincinnati
  • Hon. Walter H. Rice, United States District Court
  • Mrs. Lois Rosenthal, Community Advocate
  • Ms. Marilyn Shazor, Community Advocate
  • Dr. Thomas J. Schneider, President & CEO, Restructuring Associates Inc.
  • Ms. Susan Taylor, Founder and CEO, National CARES Mentoring Movement
  • Mr. Charles Whitehead, Retired President, Ashland Oil Foundation
  • Rev. Darryl Woods, Pastor, Revelation Baptist Church

http://www.freedomcenter.org/about-us/executive-team/

 

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:25 | 2027516 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

When I clicked the link I saw two faces, Soros and David Horowitz. That told me all I needed to know.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:34 | 2027544 gangland
gangland's picture

I still don't know what to make of it...

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:43 | 2027567 knukles
knukles's picture

Anti-Paul propaganda.
Look at the board and senior representatives.  Lotta entrenched special interests go bye bye with Ronnie.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:54 | 2027579 gangland
gangland's picture

thanks, that's why I posted it here, for the input. it's like a gotcha piece connecting Paul with Frank on the eve of Iowa caucuses. now it makes sense.

 

certainly Cintas, P&G and Glenair would lose big pentagon money. definitely making sense now.

To wit:

according to FEC data John e Pepper former ceo of P&G was a campaign donor to Mitt Romney in 2007. 

We can assume he still is and we can further assume he represents super-pac Romney supporters whose donations would not be available via FEC today.

Conclusion:

The GOP establishment is using frontpagemag.com & freedomcenter.org as a sort of 'legitimate' conservative and religious conduit, catered to iowa voters, to publish a hit piece on Paul right before the Iowa caucuses.

This point is further underscored in that john E Pepper, at least according to FEC data, has never donated money to the Paul campaign.

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 00:59 | 2027882 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The end of the age of oil.

It does not matter one whit what is done at this point. Bio-fuels or otherwise.

The Age of Oil as primary mover of humanity is closing fast. It will of course power the coming war, Oil's last hurrah.

Thank goodness for that. Other people/ways will get some breathing room. Till then, all you logicians here can sit and fire blanks at people like me who have the keys to the other side.

ori

/the-plan/

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:52 | 2027576 gangland
gangland's picture

Aerosolized Fukushima Plutonium In Europe At Levels 4X Lower Than Chernobyl

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22206700

Only 4 times lower despite the distance from Fuku vs Chernobyl.

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:48 | 2027580 YBNguy
YBNguy's picture

Dont be a rube. Do your own research. Paul has been pushing for this cut back 3 years before the panel was assembled. Of course he (and several other republicans) back such a strategy. This does not mean he's in bed with Soros, only that he will use any means nessecary to get this country fiscally back on track. As one of the comments on that webpage said: its like the 6 degrees of Kevin Bacon when relating to folks in that field. Add to this that many military cut-back people are left leaning types with similar assoicates....

I despise Frank but he was spot on in saying:

"It is very clear that a very serious debate on this issue [military spending] has to take place”

 

Read Ron Pauls take on this:

http://paul.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1875&Ite...

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:55 | 2027616 gangland
gangland's picture

thanks, appreciate it, that's why I posted it, wanted to sort of crowd source it in here.

so according to FEC data John e Pepper former ceo of P&G was a campaign donor to Mitt Romney in 2007. 

We can assume he still is and we can further assume he represents super-pac Romney supporters whose donations would not be available via FEC today.

Conclusion:

The GOP establishment is using frontpagemag.com & freedomcenter.org as a sort of 'legitimate' conservative and religious conduit, catered to iowa voters, to publish a hit piece on Paul right before the Iowa caucuses.

This point is further underscored in that john E Pepper, at least according to FEC data, has never donated money to the Paul campaign.

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:21 | 2027667 tempo
tempo's picture

There will be no "black swans" as long as the US$ remains the world's reserve currency. This will continue as long as the Saudi's price their crude in US$ which will continue as long as the US maintains the world's largest and most effective military force. The US can and will run trillion $ deficits as rates drift lower and lower. He who has the biggest military makes the rules and the US rules. The trillion dollar military budget passed w/o desent. The Saudi's just purchased $50 billion in fighter jets. Get over it. Nothing matters except the US military power which allows for continued dollar dominance and deficits. BTW all other currencies are also crap.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 01:47 | 2027948 akak
akak's picture

Let us know when you wake up from your neocon-induced militaristic wet dream --- or nightmare, as the case may be.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 08:53 | 2028257 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

You do not have to be a neo con to realize that the whole pyramid has the US military at its base.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 02:03 | 2027970 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

There's a ginormous Black Swan circling over the Straits of Hormuz. Gettin lower and lower...INSTANT post-peak oil.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 02:04 | 2027972 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

If you can see it , it isn't black and probably not a swan either.

ori

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:49 | 2027585 economics1996
economics1996's picture

The productive portion of the economy is down 6.8% since 2007.

http://usa-wethepeople.com/2011/12/what-is-the-real-gross-domestic-product-down-6-8-from-2007/

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:16 | 2027380 roccman
roccman's picture

peak oil bitchez - da biggest swany of dem all!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:03 | 2027463 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Belle: So, Swanny...

Benjy Stone: Ma, he's an actor, not a river.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:02 | 2027624 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The unwary consumer of Mr. Will's self-congratulatory prose (he has a corner office in the sprawling Ministry of Propaganda) might wrongly interpret this to mean that America is a net exporter of energy: it is not

Will's logic is akin to the "Black Friday" logic in which "loss leader" sales, would eventually add to the bottom line by being made up in volume of sales...

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:21 | 2027387 fbrothers
fbrothers's picture

We do not see many black swans here in Virginia. But a lot of people mistake our brant for geese. And, there is a lot of difference at the dinner table.

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:04 | 2027468 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Tell me about it. Those brants have no manners at all.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:22 | 2027391 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"America is a net exporter of energy products for the first time in 62 years"

Maybe Mr. Will was referring to the non-existent Red Bull market in the 1950's when he was a fledgling commentator. 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:10 | 2027481 akak
akak's picture

I always wanted to smack that smug fucker George Will in the face if I ever actually met him --- just before I shove his prissy bow tie down his marionette-like, pouty little mouth.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:34 | 2027545 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I got dibs already...from a long time ago...he has an aversion to my right to protect myself & family as I see fit.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:17 | 2027497 philipat
philipat's picture

He is probably netting out all the Vampire Squid derivatives? I find that paper oil is difficult to get into the gas tank and doesn't run very well?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:20 | 2027500 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Red bull gives you wings.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:31 | 2027534 akak
akak's picture

Yes, but in doing so it has unfortunate side effects.

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:23 | 2027393 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

a short note for those who should know better:

black swans are not identified before they happen. we are sitting here identifying things that could happen. great. but none of these things are black swans, because they are part of the conversation. true black swans were part of no conversation at all, or a conversation totally obscure to the mainstream.

but just for the sake of argument, the collapse of american imperialism under its weight is the biggest white/grey swan.

http://azizonomics.com/2011/12/30/the-edge-of-bankruptcy/ 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:29 | 2027405 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

So would it be a black swan if the market(s) just go uo this year and no bad shit really happens?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:37 | 2027416 knukles
knukles's picture

Precisely kinda, getting closer but no cigar, yet.  Maybe.
Sure would be one helluv an outlier, eh?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:21 | 2027504 xela2200
xela2200's picture

The BP oil spill was a black swan event.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:04 | 2027630 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Yeah... Just like the Exxon Valdez...

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:42 | 2027425 roccman
roccman's picture

most 'merikans think oil is forever - to them - peak oil is a BIG FUCKING BLACK SWAN (BFBS).

 

'member - most at ZH have IQs slightly higher than room temp - we be special crazies...

 

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:23 | 2027509 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Are they the same people that don't think global warming is happening? That we have 7B people in the planet with absolutely no effect to the environment?

The weather in 2011 was more active than in the whole decade of the 80's.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:45 | 2027570 CH1
CH1's picture

The weather in 2011 was more active than in the whole decade of the 80's.

LOL... you're actually serious?

Those of us who lived through that decade know otherwise.

Global warming is bullshit.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:04 | 2027629 roygbiv
roygbiv's picture

Wow, since you put it like that, it must be true
:/
Just got back from India. Impressive, Fascinating place. But clear evidence, at least to me, that humans can fuck up the environment.
Lemme guess, you live in a populated place like Oklahoma? "I don't see no 'fect of people's on the Vironmeny"
(And for the record, I remember even part of the '60's)

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:54 | 2027751 CH1
CH1's picture

So, my speaking the truth is somehow stupid, pushy, or ridiculous? Because you say so?

I've lived lots of places, and yes, the global warming religion IS bullshit.

I said nothing about making a mess - you pulled that out to change the subject.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 03:19 | 2028051 roygbiv
roygbiv's picture

umm, and I should believe you speak the truth because....

 

I think I'll stick with the conclusion drawn from the National Academy of Sciences. You know, the same guys that analyzed and found the 9/11 report wanting.

OOooh, such cognnitive disonance I am causing you now.  Government-paid scientists - are they good guys or bad guys?  Mommy, my  brain hurts.

Tell you what - you stick with the paid for "truth" pedlled by the paid-for-Industry-shills. 

The ones that told you cigarattes are harmless, the Pinto won't explode, and snort all the Asbestos you want.  Oh yeah, and the BP Oil Spill never happened.

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 09:13 | 2028283 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Global warming is BS, and I'm sorry that your green stocks are going to $0

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:07 | 2027637 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Global warming is so yesterday... Nowadays it's called "climate change"...

I remember in the 70's they were worried about the next ICE AGE fast approaching... I guess the research grants for that ran out...

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:47 | 2027693 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

The ice age would be the effect of melting the ice caps on the north pole by diverting fresh water down and disrupting the flow of the gulf stream. if you can't see the climate is changing you must be looking at a different world. i dont see why this is a political issue? I mean look at china's air, you really think that activities such as that will have no effect on the long term  health of the climate whatsoever. really? i'd like to know why increasing co2 levels will never, ever have an effect, like it does, on say, the planet venus. i'm really interested to know why the climate isn't changing, like it appears to be.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:49 | 2027754 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Let me put it to you this way...

I'll go by what SCIENCE tells me that the Earth is roughly 4.5 BILLION YEARS old... It has survived plate tectonics, asteroid bombardments, snowball earth, probably countless coronal mass ejections & God knows what else...

I didn't say the climate wasn't changing... WHAT I DID allude to is that the puny contribution to what modern man has added to the list is insignificant when you consider the larger picture...

The Earth was here a long time before humans were... It'll LAUGH AT US for many aeons after we've done away with ourselves...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 00:05 | 2027788 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

the argument is whether it's man-made on a glodabl scale. There's no evidence saying that it is.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 00:46 | 2027863 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

I didn't say the earth wouldn't survive. But the argument that it has survived doesn't mean we will. And saying there is no evidence is just a cop out, sorry and ignores the ice caps melting, ignore various weather phenomena, and ignores the rise in temperature, which very well could be due to things we don't understand. But it could be us too. Care to play Russian roulette much? But forget all that. We shouldn't pollute the earth and the atmosphere because I don't want to live like i'm in Beijing where its harmful to breathe. There is evidence of that.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 05:00 | 2028109 spdrdr
spdrdr's picture

Rick M,

You seem to be an inquisitive fellow.  I will provide you with some scientific answers to your plainative query:

"i'd like to know why increasing co2 levels will never, ever have an effect, like it does, on say, the planet venus. i'm really interested to know why the climate isn't changing, like it appears to be."

I'm doing all this by memory, so don't expect references.  If anything concerns you, remember, "Google Is Your Friend!"  I'm sure that they would have taught you that in Elementary.  Anyway, here we go:

(1)  Venus. Consistently held up by the Warmists as the fiery Hell that we fossil-fuel users are consigning every member of humanity towards, with blatant disregard as long as we receive our monthly stipend from Big Oil.   "Runaway greenhouse!!!"   Eeek!  It's HOT on Venus!  (Yes, 870 degrees Farenheit on the surface). EEEk!  We're all going to DIE!!!!!1!!1!!!.

OK, Rick, just calm down a bit - take some Ritalin if needs be.  Here are the scientific facts about Venus:

*  The atmospheric pressure of Venus is 93 bar - i.e. 93 times the Earth's atmospheric pressure.  No big deal?  This is equivalent to being 930 metres below the ocean surface.  Lots of pressure....

*  The pressure (i.e. the "weight") of the atmosphere of Venus makes it so dense, that 1 cubic metre of the atmosphere at ground level weighs 67 kilograms.  This is 6.7% of the density of water!  Try breathing this atmosphere without gills....

*  Even if the Venusian atmosphere was 100% oxygen, at this density and pressure, the surface temperature would be HOTTER with 100% oxygen than it is with 96.5% CO2.

*  The level of CO2 in the Venusian atmosphere is 96.5%.  On Earth, it is 0.038%, having risen from 0.028% at the "pre-industrial" wet dream timeline prior to the 20th Century.  This is wayyyy less than Venus.  On my rough calculation, Earth's present 0.038% concentration is one 2,500th of the Venusian concentration. Even if it doubled, quadrupled or whatever, it would not come anywhere near the Venusian concentration or density.

* Bottom line:  CO2levels have no effect on Venusian atmospheric or land temperatures.

(2)  The climate is changing. 

Secondly, as per Rick M: " i'm really interested to know why the climate isn't changing, like it appears to be."

*  Rick, Rick, Rick ......  the climate IS changing, it ALWAYS has changed,and it will CONTINUE to change in the future.  The extraordinary, almost quasi-religious belief by Warmists that the climate is a static system (and only being "upset" by mankind), is beyond rational belief. 

*  We are still emerging from the Little Ice Age (Google it) of the 16th/17th century, which followed the Medieval Warm Period of the 10th/14th century, when it was hotter than it is at present, despite the fairly apparent lack of SUVs and coal-firedpower stations. 

*  For your homework, research the Viking Norse settlements in Greenland.  The Warmists shriek all day long, tear their hair out, and scratch at their faces while howling at the moon when you confront them with the scientific evidence of Viking settlements in Greenland from about 1200 to 1500, which had to be abandoned as a result of encroaching cold and ice sheets.   This, Rick, is evidence, not supposition, nor hiding the decline as so-called "climate scientists" are inclined to do. 

Rick, a seemingly smart fellow like yourself will soon embrace the logical conclusion that cold=bad, warm=good, at least as far as it extends to human survival. 

Think science, not psuedo-religion, and you will soon find yourself on the path to the Truth.....

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:51 | 2027764 CH1
CH1's picture

I guess the research grants for that ran out.

More or less, yeah.

And, yes, "Global Warming" has been replaced for the scammers' convenience. I just don't want to let them off the hook.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 01:01 | 2027871 Rick Masters
Rick Masters's picture

Why is it a scam? I don't get that either. I find it hard to believe all these scientists are in some nefarious plot.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 01:24 | 2027920 spdrdr
spdrdr's picture

The "nefarious plot" is of elegant simplicity - hypothesise disaster scenarios (without one scintilla of the Scientific Method being employed) and be paid huge sums of money for out-shrieking the other doomers.

Simple, really.....

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 02:53 | 2028038 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Perhaps THIS will help.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:02 | 2027439 akak
akak's picture

true black swans were part of no conversation at all, or a conversation totally obscure to the mainstream.

There are, in actuality, NO "black swan events" at all --- just varying levels of pro-status-quo, "mainstream" denials of reality, and suppressions of the truth and inevitable financial blowback.

It's not a "black swan" when I sign up for 10 new credit cards and charge them up to their credit limits of $10,000 each in one year while making $20,000 annually, and then suddenly default on all that debt.  Refusing to adopt a big-picture, non-mainstream outlook does not absolve anyone from suffering the effects of inevitability.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:52 | 2027594 economics1996
economics1996's picture

The main stream is still in denial, even at this late stage.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:46 | 2027743 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Japan's "Fuckisheema" qualifies for a Black Swan in my book.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 00:51 | 2027867 SystemsGuy
SystemsGuy's picture
black swans are not identified before they happen. we are sitting here identifying things that could happen. great. but none of these things are black swans, because they are part of the conversation. true black swans were part of no conversation at all, or a conversation totally obscure to the mainstream.

Er, sort of. Black swans in general are high-risk low-probability events that are effectively zeroed out in modeling but still exist (and reinforce other black swans) in the real world. Fukushima's a good example - assumptions were made that in the event of an earthquake of sufficient magnitude, the reactors would be able to shut down. In the event of a tsunami, the reactors could be shut down. Yet it was the reinforcing nature of earthquake followed shortly thereafter by the tsunami that hadn't been adequately modeled, in great part because of cost. The models said it was too low a probability an event to prepare for given the costs involved - the models were wrong, now Japan is becoming a radioactive wasteland.

The financial crisis worked the same way. Selling counterparty risk insurance is a great business in most cases, because according to the modeling of any given party, the chance that the need for payout is small, which means that 99% of the time, the amount being paid out is far below the amount being paid in premiums. The black swan emerges though when risks become chained, so that two or three parties suddenly being forced into a payout situation causes a domino like chain reaction as the insurers, who are also hedged, then have to pay out beyond their immediate ability to do so.

In effect, the Lehman Brothers collapse is still happening, but it's reached a stage where entire countries are now being engulfed by it. Mostly, up until now, the collapse has been happening behind closed doors - though periodically it spawns a black swan such as MF Global failing that becomes public. Most people see the black swans, and think that they are rare and isolated events, not realizing that these are manifestations of a larger problem. However, people ARE becoming aware of what's going on - when you see too many black swans, it's hard not to begin to get suspicious and to start digging deeper. When the tipping point is reached, then a crisis of confidence occurs ... trust, the foundation of the economy, disappears. I think that we;re getting close to the point where that will happen in the United States - maybe this year, maybe next, but soon.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 02:47 | 2028029 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

MF (missing funds) Global became the 19th primary dealer just 6 months before on the power of the Corzine Machine.

All I can say regarding Mr. Will's willingness to fall on his words....4 more years!  4 more years!  Seems like Mr. Will is getting ready for 4 more years.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 08:48 | 2028243 Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

Spiral Eyes - you make a perfectly reasonable comment, but on a little finer grain, it is hard to specify a line dividing what is in the public conversation and what is not. There were a few voices warning of a possible earthquake and subsequent disaster at Fukushima. They weren't in the mainstream press and even most here did not hear about them. But that doesn't mean people were not talking about it.

The whole Black Swan idea is a sort of static abstraction and approximation of a social dynamic. It is useful as a conversation starter, and to shake a few people awake, but as always, reality is much richer and nuanced.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:26 | 2027395 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

d'oh!

double post.

oh well. might as well use it to share something about nassim taleb:

http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb04/taleb_index.html 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:24 | 2027398 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

If we had to summarize the Status Quo's confidence that no black swans will threaten its control in 2012, we might begin with its faith that the system's self-regulation will resolve all systemic challenges.

And then after that, they lol'd.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:25 | 2027400 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

Hey, if the USA exports "energy products" then it doesn't matter if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.  So W T F are we spending all this time and money in the middle east on?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:32 | 2027409 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Defending the dollar? Russia? China?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:34 | 2027413 Jena
Jena's picture

Freedom?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:42 | 2027424 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

lol

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:29 | 2027527 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

literally

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:55 | 2027604 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Israel.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:34 | 2027414 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

If we can't get crude then we can't produce the products to export. It's mostly gasoline since US sales have dropped and South America is hungry. We still import near 50% of the crude we use

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:46 | 2027435 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i was under the impression that the US was a net exporter of fuels now for the first time in 50 years...not the feedstock...and since we can't export natural gas that isn't going to happen for some time.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:53 | 2027577 akak
akak's picture

If we can't get crude then we can't produce the products to export.

You mean the rest of the world might have virtually their entire supply of (US-produced) military aggression, invasion and neo-imperialism cut off?  What a shame.

 

"We fight them over there so that we can evetually fight our own citizens over here!"

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:39 | 2027706 knukles
knukles's picture

Yeah.  Enumeees furin an doe'-mestic,  God-damn' it.

 

Kin only sniff them little bastards out when they break down in the face of the Apocalyptic Godless hoards.
Feemah 'em.

Put that one there financial guy into the Goldman barracks so's MDB can educate his ass in the fine points of economics, patriotism, finance and selfless investments.

(Overflight of F-22's to strains of God Bless America and cheers of detainees, for like Winston Smith, they have come to love Bigbrover)

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:46 | 2027436 Gidas19
Gidas19's picture

"WTF are we spending all this time and money in the middle east on?" Well, we are bringing "DEMOCRACY" AND PEACE to the MIDDLE EAST, unfortunetly FIGHTING for peace is like FUCKING for virginity...

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:59 | 2027615 economics1996
economics1996's picture

"Fighting for someone freedom is like fucking for someone virginity."  Dave Rabbit, Radio First Termer, Vietnam, 1968.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-IdlRiAunI

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:16 | 2027654 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Psssst... it's the oil (and the opium). If it was about bringing democracy, we could start right next door in Mexico, that place is a fucking mess. But, it's not about democracy, it's about oil and drugs, baby.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:41 | 2027723 knukles
knukles's picture

 

 

No sex or rock n' roll?
Dawg!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:46 | 2027740 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Sex and rock 'n roll is prohibited in the middle east. Boring place.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:28 | 2027525 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You do realize what that means?

Crude comes in, unemployment destroys consumption, refinery capacity becomes "spare", that spare capacity keeps refining and the output gets sold to those with less than spare refinery capacity.

It doesn't mean not one thing relevant to US crude requirements.  It's refined product.  Not crude.  We export it because the refinery capacity is there.  

This is like hating war.  You can have peace any time you want it.  Just surrender.

Ditto oil consumption.  You can stop consuming oil any time you want.  Just stop delivering food to cities via truck.

 

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:31 | 2027533 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

Oil vey

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:37 | 2027403 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 

Northeast Ohio rocked by 11th earthquake linked to Youngstown injection wells

http://www.ohio.com/news/local-news/northeast-ohio-rocked-by-11th-earthq...

 

'Fracking' blamed for 4.0 earthquake in Ohio

 

CNN: Official: 4 Ohio fluid-injection wells cannot open in wake of quake .

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:47 | 2027438 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i don't know why i find this funny but i really do.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:55 | 2027450 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Wait a minute...theres oil under Youngstown Ohio?

Invade Detroit!!!...alert the Great Lakes Fleet!!!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:46 | 2027572 knukles
knukles's picture

So that's why the Cayohaga River caught fire in'69. 
Shit, '69 again, right there with Aretha.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:30 | 2027407 Misean
Misean's picture

The whole point of central skanks and government cartel enforcers is to PREVENT system self regulation.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:47 | 2027575 CH1
CH1's picture

BINGO!!!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:32 | 2027410 Zender67
Zender67's picture

This (2012) be the year gray/black Cygnets will mature and fly... 

Trading ranges to be broken on the down side. 

The hopium will evaporate in the face of exponential growth in volume and complexity of fragile financial systems across the globe. 

So where to from here?  Go "long".  It's the contrarian thing to do.

 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:40 | 2027420 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The black swan will be a false white swan of hope.

As it gets closer it will be clear it has venomous fangs and a whip tail and talons instead of webbed feet. 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:48 | 2027440 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"hope is the enemy" are words to live by in the world of financial management...something i might add CNBC should have plastered on their walls when they come to work...instead of me.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:42 | 2027729 knukles
knukles's picture

The last evil from the box.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:41 | 2027422 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

It's not even a black swan anymore, it's just what's going to happen. The fiat ponzi is being pushed to the limit with the ultra low rates and ultra high debts of every major country.

TheSilverJournal.com

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:45 | 2027432 besnook
besnook's picture

so if it is planned it is not a black swan. if the  plan is depraved enough is it a jackal? can a jackal birth black swans?

 

massive capacity destruction is the plan unleashing the biggest black swan of all, the fall of the entire western empire system.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:13 | 2027486 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Just the antichrist.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:42 | 2027511 knukles
knukles's picture

So the anti-Christ is a black.........
Oh, never the fuck mind.
Way too twisted for the first business day Kunks, way too far twisted.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 03:02 | 2028042 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

With worldwide population at 7 Billion...which requires high-level energy sources and distribution of food, energy, sewage, transportation...any simple thing can tip the cart over and cause large-scale loss of society and life.

If it was just a few hundred million population running around the globe...then there would be new places to go to (run away)...but now you can only run into other populations.  So its like we are all living in the Matrix and the fiat currencies are Agent Smith.

Its going to be a flock of black swans.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:47 | 2027433 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

TYLER: Breaking: Cuban officials refusal to confirm or deny  rumours add to speculation gov't know he is dead. 

Unconfirmed reports of Castro's death flying tonight

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:57 | 2027452 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Kim needed a friend.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:33 | 2027542 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Chavez is a CIA plant.... gave Castro cancer.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:38 | 2027553 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I long to live in a world where everything is not a CIA potted plant.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:55 | 2027602 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I'm sure you can find at least one person at ZH to take the other side of THAT trade.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:13 | 2027650 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Unconfirmed reports of Castro's death flying tonight

Are you sure he wasn't just partying it up on New Years with Generalissimo Juan Francisco Franco?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:21 | 2027663 Montgomery Burns
Montgomery Burns's picture

Looks like he's died several times in the last few years.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:52 | 2027441 DFCtomm
DFCtomm's picture

Much propaganda has been issued over the years about the hundreds of years of supply of energy the U.S. possesses, but journalism is supposed to ferret out the current facts as its foundation rather than begin with self-satisfied pontification.

                                                                                                                                              -Charles Hugh-Smith

 

 

It's not propaganda. It's the truth, but as usual the nuts here aren't aware of facts in the real world. We have hundreds of years worth of energy in the ground, but what we're running out of is easy to get energy. We may have indeed reached peek oil production, but thats not the same thing as the end of production. We will continue to have fossil fuels available to us but it is going to become much more difficult to extract, and thus much more expensive, unless some technological breakthrough changes that.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:06 | 2027471 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

fossil fuels? What is that?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:28 | 2027524 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Geriatric Flatulence.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:36 | 2027551 akak
akak's picture

You know, like Jon McCain or Robert Byrd or Ted Stevens or Strom Thurman.

Oh wait, those are (or were) fossil fools!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:22 | 2027670 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Not bad, akak. Not bad.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 01:28 | 2027924 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Don't skimp on the accolades.  That was great!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:22 | 2027510 SK8boarder
SK8boarder's picture

Ya I read this in another place, No one ever talkes about the declining rate and how much it takes just to make up for that. This quote is from another sight I thought he said it a lot better then I can.

 

The global liquids "production" running at 88 mmbpd, and assuming 5% declines, we need to add 4.4 mmbpd new capacity every year to stand still. So you are right, this one field will offset about 10% of global declines for 1 year. We need to discover about 10 of these every year.  

Ya your right the days of cheap Oil finds are over...  and yet we need the Oil more then ever.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:31 | 2027536 tongue.stan
tongue.stan's picture

the US has a shitload of easy to get nat gas and coal, so no, we're not running out of easy to get "energy".  we have hundreds of years worth of both. Its the easy-to-get crude thats the problem, at least for the big oil companies.

the number of nutty shills like dfctomm on this site makes me laugh.

so much bullshit, so few pixels

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:02 | 2027622 DFCtomm
DFCtomm's picture

Really? The natural gas is so easy to get at that it must be mined(released by the mining of coal)  or fracted out. The total available amount of natural gas available in the U.S. was just revised down as well, signifigantly.  Now onto coal. We've been mining the good, relatively low sulfur, bituminous coal of the SE U.S. for over 100 years now. I know a lot of coal towns in SW virginia and Pennsylvania that wish you were right. That is not to say that we don't still have 100s of years left of these energy sources, but they again are hard to get out, or of inferior quality like Western high sulfur coal.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:48 | 2027584 CH1
CH1's picture

We have hundreds of years worth of energy in the ground, but what we're running out of is easy to get energy.

YES!!!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:51 | 2027446 gtb
gtb's picture

Correct name is Canada geese.  Canadians are people...not geese.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:57 | 2027449 akak
akak's picture

I thought Canadians were maple leaves --- or is it "leafs"?

In either case, most Canadians remind me much more of sheep than of any wildfowl.  I'll start to grudgingly respect them when they finally take that bitch of a foreign figurehead monarch off their currency, and when they learn to say the difference between "Don" and "Dawn".

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:59 | 2027454 besnook
besnook's picture

in quebec they are clearly frogs.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:19 | 2027476 akak
akak's picture

You better call them "les granouilles" in Quebec, or the language police will haul you off to prison.

You probably think I'm joking, but in Quebec, speaking English in public is practically the Canadian equivalent of wearing a suicide bomb vest into a packed MacDonalds while screaming "Allahu akbar!".  Just go and try it --- I dare ya!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:24 | 2027514 knukles
knukles's picture

The French Canadians speak Arabic?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:27 | 2027521 akak
akak's picture

Get 'em a bit liquored-up (which, by the way, is not hard to do) and it sure does sound like it!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:33 | 2027543 knukles
knukles's picture

LOL  Truth!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:39 | 2027557 besnook
besnook's picture

i have some great stories to tell about montreal. suffice to say montreal women are hot,,,until they start talking. tabernac.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 00:19 | 2027823 David449420
David449420's picture

You dare someone? I have been to the Quebec City Festival several times. Ratio of woman to men? 10:1 You'd have to be DEAD to not get laid in that setting. Language doesn't matter in that environment, only the uantity of your money.  (The Canadian military ships the entire regiment of the "Van Doos" off on exercise just before the Carnival starts.)

 

Party on, Garth

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 00:29 | 2027838 akak
akak's picture

Oh, don't get me wrong, I almost invariably LOVE Canadians as individuals --- merely pointing out that, when it comes to their social and political culture, they can be just as fucked-up as USAians, merely in different ways.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:01 | 2027457 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"I'll start to grudgingly respect them when they finally take that bitch of a foreign figurehead monarch off their currency, and when they learn to say the difference between "Don" and "Dawn"."

Dawwwn, go away I'm no good for youuu...ROTFL!!!

Friggin excellent akak!!!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:18 | 2027488 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

Agreed.........Akak get's it!

Endorsing "Haggage"........on their coin and currency products is a form of Stockholm Syndrome

I'd love to purchase some gold and silver products from alot of locations.....but only after they remove the old Hag

As an aside.....That song is way before my time.....but NTL...I always thought it was pretty good.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bE40KM4SGAY

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:25 | 2027508 akak
akak's picture

"Haggage"!  LOL!

I own a handful of Canadian coins, but you can be damned sure that I have every single one of them bitch-side-down in EVERY one of the cases or flips!  Honestly, even with the ugly slew of dead presidents on US coins, I am positively embarrassed for Canadians to see that absurd meaningless crowned dowager on all of theirs.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:57 | 2027609 nmewn
nmewn's picture

The song was way before mine too...its a classic though.

Further back, Glenn Miller...but ya gotta be in the mood ;-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CI-0E_jses&feature=related

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:15 | 2027490 akak
akak's picture

I was once watching with a Canadian a television re-election commercial for senator Don Young, which featured his daughter Dawn Young pitching his case, when the Canadian guy actually said "Hey look, how funny --- they both have the same name!"

(insert palm faceplant here)

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:21 | 2027506 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Glad to know someone else inhabits the same astral plane...lol.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:32 | 2027538 knukles
knukles's picture

The other day one of my buds had a 3' putt and yipps it about 10' past the cup.  Statred shouting at himself, yelling about being a "putz".
I started laughing and everybody else looked at me kinda odd.
Like uh, what dude? 
Putz.  He said putz.  Get it putz?
Then again he's not Canadian either, so maybe that's why its not funny.
BTW, ever notice how Canadians living in the US are embarassed to admit being from the Great White North? 
Kinda odd beings that most Americans overseas don't like admit being American often saying they're form Canada.
Doesn't make them funnier, either.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:45 | 2027571 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"Kinda odd beings that most Americans overseas don't like admit being American often saying they're form Canada.
Doesn't make them funnier, either."

I think I could explain away my drawl as being from Southern Canada...might be funny to try...Hey ya'll, ehh?

Or not...lol.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:15 | 2027652 knukles
knukles's picture

OMG.  Reminds me of one of my buds.  Met him in grad school.  He was from the Virginias and had a riot of a souther accent, mixed in with some of the twanginess of the Appalachians.  We all used to call him "Crazy" Fred (Pseudenom in the proper manner of 12 step programs and the first derivative, Fight Club)  Well, Fred used to call everybody "Sport Rocket" and have a few other perfectly unique choice phraes.  He went on to become a senior aide to a very famous US Senator, a la Animal House.
Now, if your accent is anything like Fred's, won't work.  But if you've the charm and character of Fred, anybody'd believe you.  Probably why he made it in politics  :)

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:27 | 2027682 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Lot of us southern boys know how to turn on the charm.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:44 | 2027735 knukles
knukles's picture

LOL
Points to ya'll.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 00:52 | 2027868 David449420
David449420's picture

I was in the Canadian Airforce for 20 years. Back in the 1970' I was on exercise in Churchill, Manitoba in Feburay. Joint exercise with the Americans.

My Sargent walks into our office we had set up and asked " Have you got that youall loaded yet? I said " What the fuck is a youall?"  Just then an American Major walked through the door and said "You'all got my airplane loaded yet?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:24 | 2027676 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

10' past the cup on a 3 footer is more of a power surge than a yip...

Speaking of PUTTS... Ever heard when someone misses a putt short they say "Hit it Alice"... Common thought was that "Alice" referred to Alice Cramden of Honeymooners fame (but nobody ever made the connection)... The truth of the story is that "Alice" is actually "ALYSS" (Peter Alyss - famous British golf announcer, who missed a putt short & was criticizing himself)...

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:28 | 2027686 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I always say, "Hit it, bitch", and sidestep any long stories about the phrase.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:53 | 2027448 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Besides the possibility that Castro is dead i don't know where to begin with this post. I guess i would say by "Uncle Gorilla'ing" interest rates the Fed's leave open the possibility of growth...depending on whether government policies promote said activity (for almost the entirety of the US and most of the world for that matter this is not the case.) I'd still stay long the energy producers...North Dakota is about it...and Alberta. If the Utica Shale in Eastern Ohio is for real (and the earthquakes don't take down the state of course!) then that state is a possibility as well. LOT of potential there if the State of Ohio becomes "the next Saudi Arabia."

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 21:56 | 2027451 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

If Castro is dead, do we invade the Bay of Pigs? Or blockade Havana? Will North Korea intervene? 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:00 | 2027456 knukles
knukles's picture

WE GOTTA DO SOMETHING!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:02 | 2027461 nmewn
nmewn's picture

UNLEASH THE HOOOUNDDDSSS!!!

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:05 | 2027470 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We offer Rupert Murdoch as a hostage. Then we invade. And set up Mafia-run casinos built by Army Corps of Engineers on day 2. 

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:09 | 2027479 nmewn
nmewn's picture

So, its like deja vu all over again ;-)

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:20 | 2027502 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Looks like communist dictators picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:26 | 2027517 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...theres always one to take his place...they never run out of demigods, just other peoples sweat.

I'm sure there will be dancing in the streets in Miami if confirmed ;-)

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:35 | 2027550 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Russians aren't very good dancers.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:37 | 2027552 knukles
knukles's picture

What about north Minneapolis?

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:27 | 2027680 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

50 year anniversary of Operation Northwoods... The 'Illuminati' have a sick sense of humor...

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:50 | 2027760 knukles
knukles's picture

Sweet.
Talk about a sense of humor.  :)
Deeply appreciated.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:53 | 2027563 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

"So, it's like deja vu all over again ;-)"

 

Propellerheads - History Repeating (1997).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1XdlanT6Ds&feature=related (4:55)

shirley bassey-History Repeating.mp4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2D5SK5FCM4&feature=related (4:03)

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:16 | 2027495 besnook
besnook's picture

smoke some cohibas hopefully.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:38 | 2027556 knukles
knukles's picture

Full reason to reopen relations with Cuba. 
Cigars.

Well, maybe a few others shouldn't be writ here.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:38 | 2027555 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Rent a jet-ski in Key West and you can be on the beach at Varadero in about two hours.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 22:01 | 2027458 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

Gasoline/Diesel is forever. Oil? Who cares? China is building 6 dozen LFTR plants and synth fuel production facilities as you read this. Once up and running, a gallon of gasoline will cost $.056 to produce (the more powerful 87 octaine of course!).

 

Bet 99% of you dirt bags didn't even know 87 octane has more power in it than 93/94 huh? Figures.

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:20 | 2027662 Rakshas
Rakshas's picture

Octane and power eh?  Try mixing a little pcp with your next rock; much better delusions, much much better...

Mon, 01/02/2012 - 23:31 | 2027694 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Good stuff.

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