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Guest Post: Dazed, Confused And Ditto
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Dazed, Confused And Ditto
I could largely take yesterday's piece and insert it here. Credit weaker across the board. Stocks doing okay. Yesterday's almost 40 point rise in the SPX was only able to get IG16 to tighten by just over 1 basis point. It is wider, but tentative today as so many got hurt yesterday when stocks kept going higher.
The major change since yesterday is that European Sovereign debt has joined the sell-off party in credit. Nothing major as of yet, but they are finally pushing higher in yield terms as even the ECB might be running out of powder? Gold moved down yesterday, which was a bit inexplicable as the hope of Jackson Hole and more printing was part of the reason for the stock market to rally.
Other reasons for the rally yesterday were the FDIC report. I am not sure the data was as rosy as the optimists thought it was. If all 865 banks on the "problem" list defaulted, the "problem" list would go to zero. I am not so sure that is worthy of celebration. But, just like the unemployment rate, where no amount of banging the table about low participation rates keeping it down, does much to temper the bullish urges, this data is out there and priced in (even if incorrectly). It did seem as though the market bounced on rumors of BAC being saved by JPM. Asides from bringing back memories of 2008 where rumours of banks saving each other ran rampant, it just doesn't seem credible. Forget all the anti trust issues. Mr. Dimon is not going to buy the BAC/MER/CFC without a cap on litigation liabilities. I just can't see the government providing that. The taxpayers would be suing the banks, but if they won, they would be getting paid by themselves above some set amount. Maybe I underestimate the ability of the government to miss such obvious details, but no way does JPM buy BAC without a cap on all that litigation. But for those in denial that this is more like 2008, the fact that bank merger rumors are back in vogue is another sign. Also worth remembering, is Lehman had from March until September to shore up its capital. They allegedly even turned down deals during that time as not providing good value. They were on TV, seemingly non stop, during that period. It all seems so 2008.
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cant wait for the volatility in september/october
Today's ES target is 1172. Buy.
I wouldn't bet on it today.
Agreed. You currently have the BlowHorn [CNBC] crowd calling "risk off" and "no one is long." It must have been 2009 the last time I heard the BlowHorn pimping the bearish point of view.
If that does not get your attention...well, then nothing will.
Sell the pop. Buy GLD weakness a couple more handles down.
anything bubblevision says is less than useful.
Not entirely. Since it is the job of the BlowHorn to help Wall Street front run various things, you can listen to it and apply intuition, anticipating where funds are looking to get in or out.
Super, double secret, counter intuitive, bubblevision information application.
Yep Cdad you just have to know how to read between the Clownhorns lines.
Thats why CNBC has a poll everyday to find out what the investors are thinking and use that against them.
Cdad/sdog -
Roubini tweets:
Nouriel Nouriel Roubini Nouriel Nouriel Roubini Nouriel Nouriel Roubinitrue dat. you made it sound like you were taking them at their word there for a moment. glad to be wrong.
John Paulson has to have shit running down his leg with the hit in gold.
OT. What are the odds that BAC was the "mystery borrower" the other day, when every one thought it was SNB?
SNB said no, not us, but did not elaborate further. Hmmmmm.
A little more liquidation in the GLD, Paulson and such selling a bit more of their winners, and it,s a buy, and the market more broadly reverses yesterday's utter stupidity.
Today = stupidity squared.
'No one is long'...yet stocks are within 15% of their all time highs. So who IS long? Someone! I guess the FED about owns the whole ball of wax by now, most all bonds, most all of the stocks....wow wonderful.
If cnbc turning bearish isn't a bullish signal I don't know what is.
1,174.49 hit less than 30 minutes after my call.
You all can buy the new "Slaughterer is my new ZH Trading Guru" T-Shirt from the on-line website next week. It will cost $500, because the lettering will be in pure 24-Karat Gold. The cult image of my tits will be reproduced by WBanzai on it.
If you can't afford the T-Shirt, you can always make a contribution to ZH. And a public apology here would also be nice. ;-)
I'm betting all the girls call you "minute man" (and you think it's because of your patriotism).
And back in the red 60 minutes later. Can I have a refund on the t-shirt I pre-ordered?
1172 huh...we'll see.
RON PAUL BITCHEZ!!!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/obama_39_paul_38
What is important to remember is that there are many “undecided” Republicans that will end up voting for Ron Paul if he is the nominee. Every Democrat voter already knows Obama is their guy, so I wouldn’t expect him to pick up much more support. Also, Ron Paul has a HUGE advantage among independent voters, which would just about seal the deal. Obama has the predictable advantage among, poor, young and female. (And probably brown) Many of those people are not reliable for turnout on election day. Ron Paul’s supporters are the most reliable voters on election day.
Off topic, I know...junk me...oh, right.
There will undoubtedly be untold numbers of former Dems with nothing to vote for in the next election from their side. Some will follow R. Paul. Many independents too. Another Obama vote is pretty hard to defend at this point for far too many.
Ron Paul 2012 - "It's Time to Hit Bottom, America!"
The more the MSM and the GOP and DEMs ignore and bash Ron, the more popular he will become. Didn't we learn anything from the album labels we got back in the 80's. Only those albums with the "explicit lyrics" sold well.
to quote another on ZH - " bloody pods"
I think that he finally has enough buzz to win, and will. It's just what happens afterwards that gets ugly. I'm not against him; but, Ron Paul will probably be this depresion's Herbert Hoover. I just don't want people to think that a return to mark-to-market and sound monetary policy (perhaps a gold standard) will be a painless transition; they will be very painful, indeed. My comments aren't bashing Ron Paul; I am merely encouraging his supporters to hedge accordingly.
Ron Paul can't win but I will vote for him.
The Dem machine will scare the brown people with cries of racism and scare the old people with his quotes about social security and medicare.
Off topic, but correct.
Get it through your thick head: he won't be a Pug nominee and he can't win as an independent.
How many times must he tilt at the windmill before you understand that he is just plain unelectable for president in the US?
It's one thing to say "It'd be nice if...", but we don't live in that alternate universe, m'kay?
The way he wins is to get more votes than any other guy. The way to get the votes is that people show up in the booth and do the deed. This is pure mechanics, not theology. Make it happen by making it happen. Contribute to his campaign (as I have), hold a stupid goddam sign, talk to the people you know, send out notices and updates by email. This is how it happens.
Volitility bitches. Get yours while the getting is good. So long as Tyler is rambling, allow me to prognosticate.
I predict Friday will be uneventful. Now everyone get back to work.
Need a confusion index.
A 'WTF?' index.
i would buy that
I propose a WTF Equivalency Index - WEI. It will be the ratio of
WTF1/WTF2
Where WTF1 is Winning The Future! and WTF2 is What The Fuck?
Whack-traded fund.
"The taxpayers would be suing the banks, but if they won, they would be getting paid by themselves above some set amount. Maybe I underestimate the ability of the government to miss such obvious details, but no way does JPM buy BAC without a cap on all that litigation."
Two comments;
1) JPM is "the government"
2) I pay myself now, what is the difference - "the taxpayer" is now a MINORITY so why not let the ignorant fucks riot so we know who to shoot first.
Do not be confused: Short volatility today.
until friday.
Joke of the day, enjoy:
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America shares may triple
from current price levels, Raymond James analyst Anthony Polini
said in a note, without providing a timeframe.
• BAC liquidity ‘excellent,’ balance sheet flexible, reserve levels high: Polini
• BAC mortgage expenses unlikely to exceed $10b, don’t expect co. to issue stock: Polini
• Raymond James rates BAC strong buy, PT $16; 18 buys, 18 holds, 2 sells, avt. PT $13: Bloomberg data
"balance sheet flexible"...FASB flexible maybe...and he misspelled 'shit'.
"unlikely to exceed $10B"...ummm...you forgot a zero.
They'll issue stock alright...directly into the market analog of Hurricane Irene.
The crackpipes be slurpin' at Raymod James..."Independent" FA...LOL
Is the Crystal Ball broken? Maybe you can use some of that Hedge Fund slush money to get a new one! jk
Z
Outside of a few miners, no stocks for me. Not worth the risk.
I never did understand miner stock buyers.
Expand?
Fuck paper.
Chavez sucking in gold.
BAC in trouble
Europe dazed and confused and now wanting PIIGS gold.
The "Stan" coutries buying all thier own gold.
The Bernak doing ZIRP and Twist 2.
Fukashima melting down Tokyo.
Looming wars for the good of the Rothchilds and Rockefellers.
A disfunctional US gov. with an idiot at the helm.
Banksters still stealing everything that's not nailed down.
The stock market running on vapors and dreams of DOW 20,000.
Great quantities of US dollars in excess reserves and in foreign banks waiting to excape.
DYSFUNTIONAL MARKETS, DOLLARS, EUROS, BONDS, GOVERNMENT, SHEEPLE, MIDDLE EAST, EUROPE, US AND FOOD.
PERHAPS BEANS BULLETS AND BULLION IS NOT A BAD IDEA.
Yep!
Check, check, and ....... mmmm, check.
Inexplicable drop in gold? I thought it was the increase in margin requirements in Shanghai. No?
what are the odds
that there will even BE another election?
Gold fell because fear came out of the market. It has nothing to do with QE3. Stocks rose because they are cheap and being snatched up, the sellers are exhausted and there's no real evidence of a recession.
You must be the real chairsatan! Good to see you read ZH.
Um, gee Ben didnt gold 'fall' because of the Shanghai margin hike? So what are you going to say Friday, ass hat?
...or my name isn't Joe Isuzu.
ben_bernanke@09:24,
<the sellers are exhausted and there's no real evidence of a recession. >
Yeah, Uh-Huh, tell it to the 15 Million out of work, and the ones (10 million more) that have stopped even LOOKING there is no recession.
Your right, no recession..............we never left the first one, and we're in a DEPRESSION.
WAKE UP.
15 million poor people don't matter to the stock market. What have they done for me recently? Nothing.
We need to move beyond the "it is a severe depression because 15 million people are out of work."
When I can't find college students to work for 15 dollars per hour then the economy can't be that bad. When I actually see skinny poor people I might believe we are in a depression.
Skinny poor people = armageddon. You can have a depression and fat people. And college grads being offered $15 an hour for their services is a tick in the recessionary column. I remember back in the mid 90's when $16.50/hr was the average wage equivalent of a college grad. Adjusted for inflation, you're offering $11.15, which is a 32% pay cut. Dick.
the CBO just came out with a 1.3 trillion deficit for 2011.....yeah right....more like 2 trillion and growing..any bets...
the "reason" the market went up is this
the "other reasons" the market went up are these
and the "reason" for glue-ball warming is peter tchirp's flatulence when he writes scripts for MSNBC, as he schools the un-orthodox as to why this is rilly rilly like 2008, b/c of the banks being on TV!
and the "reason" that peter and tyler have checks to cash is that they dutifully served up
propagananda to zeroHeads for breakfast
smells like shit to me, but if peter and tyler want to join the mainstream sheeple-feeding fest, at least that explains their shit-eating grinZ
I dont care much for Peters navel gazing meanderings, but whatever.
hey, SD-1!
oh, wait!
could the title: Guest Post: Dazed, Confused And Ditto indicate tyler may have had his full and is returing to raw meat after the "brown pablum" feast?
nah, probly not
and, don't forget, marc sez that we already have QEIII b/c the FED sez it will keep interest rates low! who could need a better "reason" that that?
welcome to the funhouse, BiCheZ! look how freaking funny tyler looks in the Hall of MirrorZ!
Strange silence from the 'financial media' on the subject of QE3...havent heard even a passing mention of it. I guess they all got the FED memo about rule 1- You do not talk about QE.
Bernanke's not going BIG at Jackson Hole.
He's going to try and talk the (soon to be) markets that are throwing tantrums down from the ledge with a sobering speech meant to concede difficult realities, while talking up the ability of the Fed to provide help for the economy.
This is according to whisper rumors.
when i was a little pi-rat and doing something with my dad, he would hear my: "Dad! i need to go potty!" and he would invariably reply: "Do you need to tinkle? or go BIG?"
2008 is over. This is 2011. Adapt.
"Gold moved down yesterday, which was a bit inexplicable" Seems 'Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors' has never heard of 'options expiry'?
I get the feeling that the market will be driven higher until Friday to give it a loftier perch from which to fall when the GDP prints horrendous numbers and the Bernank does not come out and say that he's gonna hit every ask on everything from EK to BRK.A.
This is a good pullback, BTD, it's likely the last you will ever see.At least until the final meltdown,if we go into a total Madmax,martial Law syndrome.
Which is looking more and more likely every day........esp the Martial law,as soon as the Gub stops the checks, the party is on, the Military is ready, and on full alert.
Isn't that VXX?
Party on until Friday.
I don't believe a qe3 will be announced just yet. It would be too bullish for gold. The excess needs to be wrung out first.
peter will be right on his musings. but timing is everything when setting up a short