Guest Post: Dazed, Confused And Ditto

Tyler Durden's picture

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Dazed, Confused And Ditto

I could largely take yesterday's piece and insert it here.  Credit weaker across the board.  Stocks doing okay.  Yesterday's almost 40 point rise in the SPX was only able to get IG16 to tighten by just over 1 basis point.  It is wider, but tentative today as so many got hurt yesterday when stocks kept going higher. 

The major change since yesterday is that European Sovereign debt has joined the sell-off party in credit.  Nothing major as of yet, but they are finally pushing higher in yield terms as even the ECB might be running out of powder?  Gold moved down yesterday, which was a bit inexplicable as the hope of Jackson Hole and more printing was part of the reason for the stock market to rally.

Other reasons for the rally yesterday were the FDIC report.  I am not sure the data was as rosy as the optimists thought it was.  If all 865 banks on the "problem" list defaulted, the "problem" list would go to zero.  I am not so sure that is worthy of celebration.  But, just like the unemployment rate, where no amount of banging the table about low participation rates keeping it down, does much to temper the bullish urges, this data is out there and priced in (even if incorrectly).  It did seem as though the market bounced on rumors of BAC being saved by JPM.  Asides from bringing back memories of 2008 where rumours of banks saving each other ran rampant, it just doesn't seem credible.  Forget all the anti trust issues.  Mr. Dimon is not going to buy the BAC/MER/CFC without a cap on litigation liabilities.  I just can't see the government providing that.  The taxpayers would be suing the banks, but if they won, they would be getting paid by themselves above some set amount.  Maybe I underestimate the ability of the government to miss such obvious details, but no way does JPM buy BAC without a cap on all that litigation.  But for those in denial that this is more like 2008, the fact that bank merger rumors are back in vogue is another sign.  Also worth remembering, is Lehman had from March until September to shore up its capital.  They allegedly even turned down deals during that time as not providing good value.  They were on TV, seemingly non stop, during that period.  It all seems so 2008.

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Ratscam's picture

cant wait for the volatility in september/october

slaughterer's picture

Today's ES target is 1172.  Buy. 

CPL's picture

I wouldn't bet on it today.

Cdad's picture

Agreed.  You currently have the BlowHorn [CNBC] crowd calling "risk off" and "no one is long."  It must have been 2009 the last time I heard the BlowHorn pimping the bearish point of view.

If that does not get your attention...well, then nothing will.

Sell the pop.  Buy GLD weakness a couple more handles down.

buzzsaw99's picture

anything bubblevision says is less than useful.

Cdad's picture

Not entirely.  Since it is the job of the BlowHorn to help Wall Street front run various things, you can listen to it and apply intuition, anticipating where funds are looking to get in or out.

Super, double secret, counter intuitive, bubblevision information application.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yep Cdad you just have to know how to read between the Clownhorns lines.

Tramp Stamper's picture

Thats why CNBC has a poll everyday to find out what the investors are thinking and use that against them.

TruthInSunshine's picture



Cdad/sdog -

Roubini tweets:

Nouriel Roubini
I dont watch it but i read Zero Heddge... ": why do you watch cnbc?"
16 minutes ago
Nouriel Roubini
Is it only RedBull...? : Is CNBC thinking that getting screamed at by a redbull addict conducive to a Nielsen ratings surge?
19 minutes ago
Nouriel Roubini
Right! Go & tell ahead of the tape to a clueless equiy market : aircraft orders are great! But choppy. Core=true trend

21 minutes ago

buzzsaw99's picture

true dat. you made it sound like you were taking them at their word there for a moment. glad to be wrong.

Stoploss's picture

John Paulson has to have shit running down his leg with the hit in gold.


OT. What are the odds that BAC was the "mystery borrower" the other day, when every one thought it was SNB?

SNB said no, not us, but did not elaborate further. Hmmmmm.

Cdad's picture

A little more liquidation in the GLD, Paulson and such selling a bit more of their winners, and it,s a buy, and the market more broadly reverses yesterday's utter stupidity.

slaughterer's picture

Today = stupidity squared.

SheepDog-One's picture

'No one is long'...yet stocks are within 15% of their all time highs. So who IS long? Someone! I guess the FED about owns the whole ball of wax by now, most all bonds, most all of the wonderful.

topcallingtroll's picture

If cnbc turning bearish isn't a bullish signal I don't know what is.

slaughterer's picture

1,174.49 hit less than 30 minutes after my call. 

You all can buy the new "Slaughterer is my new ZH Trading Guru" T-Shirt from the on-line website next week.   It will cost $500, because the lettering will be in pure 24-Karat Gold.  The cult image of my tits will be reproduced by WBanzai on it. 

If you can't afford the T-Shirt, you can always make a contribution to ZH.  And a public apology here would also be nice.   ;-) 

snowball777's picture

I'm betting all the girls call you "minute man" (and you think it's because of your patriotism).

MichaelG's picture

And back in the red 60 minutes later.  Can I have a refund on the t-shirt I pre-ordered?

pupton's picture


What is important to remember is that there are many “undecided” Republicans that will end up voting for Ron Paul if he is the nominee. Every Democrat voter already knows Obama is their guy, so I wouldn’t expect him to pick up much more support. Also, Ron Paul has a HUGE advantage among independent voters, which would just about seal the deal. Obama has the predictable advantage among, poor, young and female. (And probably brown) Many of those people are not reliable for turnout on election day. Ron Paul’s supporters are the most reliable voters on election day.

Off topic, I know...junk me...oh, right.

Debtless's picture

There will undoubtedly be untold numbers of former Dems with nothing to vote for in the next election from their side. Some will follow R. Paul. Many independents too. Another Obama vote is pretty hard to defend at this point for far too many.

Ausperity's picture

Ron Paul 2012 - "It's Time to Hit Bottom, America!"

LawsofPhysics's picture

The more the MSM and the GOP and DEMs ignore and bash Ron, the more popular he will become.  Didn't we learn anything from the album labels we got back in the 80's.  Only those albums with the "explicit lyrics" sold well.


to quote another on ZH - " bloody pods"

Ausperity's picture

I think that he finally has enough buzz to win, and will.  It's just what happens afterwards that gets ugly.  I'm not against him; but, Ron Paul will probably be this depresion's Herbert Hoover.  I just don't want people to think that a return to mark-to-market and sound monetary policy (perhaps a gold standard) will be a painless transition; they will be very painful, indeed.  My comments aren't bashing Ron Paul; I am merely encouraging his supporters to hedge accordingly.

topcallingtroll's picture

Ron Paul can't win but I will vote for him.

The Dem machine will scare the brown people with cries of racism and scare the old people with his quotes about social security and medicare.

snowball777's picture

Get it through your thick head: he won't be a Pug nominee and he can't win as an independent.

How many times must he tilt at the windmill before you understand that he is just plain unelectable for president in the US?

It's one thing to say "It'd be nice if...", but we don't live in that alternate universe, m'kay?

RockyRacoon's picture

The way he wins is to get more votes than any other guy.  The way to get the votes is that people show up in the booth and do the deed.   This is pure mechanics, not theology.    Make it happen by making it happen.   Contribute to his campaign (as I have), hold a stupid goddam sign, talk to the people you know, send out notices and updates by email.  This is how it happens.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Volitility bitches.  Get yours while the getting is good.   So long as Tyler is rambling, allow me to prognosticate.

I predict Friday will be uneventful.  Now everyone get back to work. 

sudzee's picture

Need a confusion index.

nodoctor's picture

I propose a WTF Equivalency Index - WEI.  It will be the ratio of


Where WTF1 is Winning The Future! and WTF2 is What The Fuck?



LawsofPhysics's picture

"The taxpayers would be suing the banks, but if they won, they would be getting paid by themselves above some set amount.  Maybe I underestimate the ability of the government to miss such obvious details, but no way does JPM buy BAC without a cap on all that litigation."

Two comments;

1)  JPM is "the government"

2)  I pay myself now, what is the difference - "the taxpayer" is now a MINORITY so why not let the ignorant fucks riot so we know who to shoot first.

slaughterer's picture

Do not be confused: Short volatility today. 

Dick Darlington's picture

Joke of the day, enjoy:

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America shares may triple
from current price levels, Raymond James analyst Anthony Polini
said in a note, without providing a timeframe.
• BAC liquidity ‘excellent,’ balance sheet flexible, reserve levels high: Polini
• BAC mortgage expenses unlikely to exceed $10b, don’t expect co. to issue stock: Polini
• Raymond James rates BAC strong buy, PT $16; 18 buys, 18 holds, 2 sells, avt. PT $13: Bloomberg data

snowball777's picture

"balance sheet flexible"...FASB flexible maybe...and he misspelled 'shit'.

"unlikely to exceed $10B" forgot a zero.

They'll issue stock alright...directly into the market analog of Hurricane Irene.

The crackpipes be slurpin' at Raymod James..."Independent" FA...LOL

Zonker's picture

Is the Crystal Ball broken?  Maybe you can use some of that Hedge Fund slush money to get a new one! jk



monopoly's picture

Outside of a few miners, no stocks for me. Not worth the risk.

mikmid's picture

Chavez sucking in gold.

BAC in trouble

Europe dazed and confused and now wanting PIIGS gold.

The "Stan" coutries buying all thier own gold.

The Bernak doing ZIRP and Twist 2.

Fukashima melting down Tokyo.

Looming wars for the good of the Rothchilds and Rockefellers.

A disfunctional US gov. with an idiot at the helm.

Banksters still stealing everything that's not nailed down.

The stock market running on vapors and dreams of DOW 20,000.

Great quantities of US dollars in excess reserves and in foreign banks waiting to excape.





Tucson Tom's picture

Inexplicable drop in gold? I thought it was the increase in margin requirements in Shanghai. No?

chistletoe's picture

what are the odds

that there will even BE another election?

ben_bernanke's picture

Gold fell because fear came out of the market. It has nothing to do with QE3. Stocks rose because they are cheap and being snatched up, the sellers are exhausted and there's no real evidence of a recession.