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Guest Post: Does Syria Want A War?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics

Does Syria Want A War?

We know for sure that Syria intentionally shot down a Turkish — and thus protected by NATO — warplane in its airspace. We also know that Syria is comfortable enough to admit it.

The AP reports:

Syria said Friday it shot down a Turkish military plane that entered Syrian air space, and Turkey vowed to “determinedly take necessary steps” in response.

 

It was the most clear and dramatic escalation in tensions between the two countries, which used to be allies before the Syrian revolt began in March 2011. Turkey has become one of the strongest critics of the Syrian regime’s brutal response to the country’s uprising.

 

Late Friday, Syria’s state-run news agency, SANA, said the military spotted an “unidentified aerial target” that was flying at a low altitude and at a high speed.

 

“The Syrian anti-air defenses counteracted with anti-aircraft artillery, hitting it directly,” SANA said. “The target turned out to be a Turkish military plane that entered Syrian airspace and was dealt with according to laws observed in such cases.”

It seems pretty clear that the Syrians know the consequences of their actions. NATO (including deluded US hawks who are happy to ignore the disastrous consequences of the drug war on the US border while talking up more intervention in the middle east) and the NATO-backed Syrian opposition has been looking for any excuse to get stuck into a new interventionist mission. We know that the NATO-backed opposition were prepared to try and get a British journalist killed in a false flag operation in order to trigger a Western intervention.

So why did Russia-armed Syria do it? And why (given the age of F-4 aircraft, it could easily have crashed of its own accord giving the Syrians a lot of plausible deniability) are they not at least denying that they shot it down?

Is it possible that the wider Eurasian anti-American coalition led by the Russians and the Chinese are confident that NATO will not intervene out of fear of triggering a wider war? After all the Russian naval base has been a great obstacle to NATO intervention. Libya didn’t have any Russian bases, and it took far less internal violence for NATO to intervene there.

Is it even possible that the Eurasians are trying to provoke NATO into another costly and damaging war? After all, the American Empire is much more indebted and militarily overstretched than it was before 9/11. Osama bin Laden’s goal of dragging the United States into the middle eastern quagmire, and thereby bankrupting America has been an unmitigated success. Could the Eurasians be trying to provoke a regional war in order to weaken NATO and draw attention away from  their own weakened economic picture?

Or is this just a case of an overzealous Syrian military commander taking a potshot at an unidentified flying object and provoking a diplomatic crisis?

As someone who does not believe that war is in any way an economic stimulus and should be avoided beyond self-preservation, I hope that this crisis — and the wider Syrian situation — can be defused.

Those who want to see a big military-Keynesian stimulus may be hoping for an escalation…

 

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Sat, 06/23/2012 - 10:58 | 2553570 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

here is the gambit: Russia's banking sector and economy is, relatively and in general terms, strong. they realize the USA and Europe are on the verge of keeling over.....they also know the the right black swan event will push the west over the abyss....this would be PAYBACK for the USA manipulating oil prices down in the 80s which led to the demise of the USSR....payback is a bitch; by proxy......and of course today Russia benefits from higher oil prices.....

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:12 | 2553628 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"...the USA and Europe are on the verge of keeling over.....they also know the the right black swan event will push the west over the abyss..."

The US has, by far, the most modern military in the world, and it has a Central Bank that can (and will) manipulate the money supply as it sees fit.  The US is not teetering on the edge of its very existence.  Changes in some form may be on the horizon, but falling into the abyss is another matter.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:15 | 2553633 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

talk to me after the next crash a la the recent 2008 one. and re-read some of the recent articles here on central planning and fed efficacy etc. 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:04 | 2553747 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

You will first need to pull your head out of the sand before we speak...

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:31 | 2553781 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Additional info:

The Turkish F4 ducked under radar (less then 1000 feet) approximately 10-20 clicks north of the Syrian border and made a straight bee line at high speed over the north west corner of Syria in a south west heading. There are confirmed reports of the phantom ripping past a vew Syrian villages at high speed on its course towards the mediterranean slipping in and out of anti aircraft radar. Once the aircraft cleared the inland terrain Syrian radar was able to lock on and shoot the craft down approximately 1km off the Syrian coast. Due to the inertia and velocity of the phantom the aircraft splashed down about 13km off the coast equidistance from both the Syrian and Turkish borders.

Additional Analysis:

The aircraft was a provacative probe to test the Syrian air defenses for the upcoming NATO air assault and no fly zone. There is a high probability that the phantom was unmanned and rigged by the US for a high speed low altitude dash over Syria due to the likelyhood of the craft being shot down.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:44 | 2553809 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture

good intel.

it was manned.

it actually had 2 kurdish political prisoners blindfolded and strapped down.

they where told that they would be flying home by the traitorous perfidious turk.

and in typical cia folk tale bin ladin style they where buried at sea.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:52 | 2553823 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Hahaha ;)

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:12 | 2553856 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Does Syria want war?

Yes....and Damascus is doing Moscow's bidding in this regard IMHO:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2009/05/russias-secret-war-plans.html

Why do you think the 'opposition' is being armed by the Syrian military?

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/syria/120606...

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/jan-june12/syria_06-22.html (in the PBS News segment, some bullets provided to the opposition are purported to be explosive....however, can you imagine the U.S. military arming the Taliban in order to provide a portion of sabotaged arms?  The 'good' weapons are still being used to kill your own side.  This makes no sense.)

Keep in mind the following:

 


Jan. 23, 2011
 - Iran announces a naval flotilla will be sent to pass through the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea w/some warships going through the Suez Canal.

Jan. 25, 2011 - Egyptian revolution begins.

Jan. 26, 2011 - Iranian naval vessels depart for Mediterranean Sea.

Feb. 6, 2011 - Iran's naval vessels dock at Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the first time Iranian warships are permitted at a Saudi Arabian port since '79 revolution given the poor relations between the states.

Feb. 11, 2011 - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak overthrown on 32nd anniversary of overthrow of the Shah in Iran

Feb. 22, 2011 - Iranian naval vessels pass through Suez Canal and enter the Mediterranean Sea for the first time since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

 

Here's the big question mark. 

How did Iran know Hosni Mubarak would be overthrown before the Egyptian revolt even began such that there'd be an opportunity for Iranian naval vessels to pass through the Suez Canal? 

Here's another important question: Why does this world fail to heed me??!!

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:00 | 2554022 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

 

Why does this world fail to heed me??!!


Well, it's not because of your font.  The font is good.  Maybe there's something else about the world you don't understand. 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:17 | 2554068 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Your snark-fu is strong. +1

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 21:34 | 2554946 phyuckyiu
phyuckyiu's picture

Was Las Vegas Dave on vacation today so you were his Hasbara Troll stand in?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:59 | 2553848 resurger
resurger's picture

hahaha

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:20 | 2554078 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Nice informative post Paul! All quite plausable. I mean, an F-4???? That was a main line US Navy Carrier plane when I was a 17 year old US Navy Sailor, and that was a LONG time ago!

How on earth is Turkey flying F-4s operationally? Looks more like a drone aircraft or one that a crew with either great courage or great ignorance flew on a provocation mission.

Oddly they claim AA gunfire made the kill. Russia sells some deadly light AA guns. They also have a good line of short range mobile missiles. Along with the big S-300 and new S-400.

If Syria could deply just a few mobile S-300, then a no fly zone might include some NATO aircraft as well!!!

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:20 | 2554148 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Thanks! Geo-politics and Military analysis is kind of a hobby still learning the financial and economic analysis from Tylers. Confirmed reports are that the kill was made by medium range anti-air Pantsyr-1 battery recently supplied by Moscow. This weapon can down aircraft flying at altitudes up to 12 kilometers and cruise missiles and is unique in that it combines two 2A38M 30mm anti-aircraft guns and up to 8 x 57E6-E ready-to-fire missiles in steered launch containers. The unit responsible for the ambush was the 73rd brigade of the Syrian army’s 26th Air Defense Division.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 21:41 | 2554959 phyuckyiu
phyuckyiu's picture

Downed within a half mile, with an aircraft flying at Mach 2 or more? Looks like a missile company in Russia is about to get some big orders. Oh but right, I forgot, Russia doesn't know how to make anything. Maybe they should be concerned about all the Sunburns pointed at Dimona after all.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 03:36 | 2557079 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

How on earth is Turkey flying F-4s operationally? Looks more like a drone aircraft or one that a crew with either great courage or great ignorance flew on a provocation mission.

It could be QF-4:

Mission
The supersonic QF-4 is a reusable full-scale target drone modified from the F-4 Phantom. The QF-4 provides a realistic full-scale target for air-to-air weapons system evaluation, development and testing at Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla., and Holloman AFB, N.M.

http://www.af.mil/information/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=13226

So, it seems it could be used to evaluate potency of Syrian anti-air defenses, the fact Turkey operates F-4s could provide for plausible deniability. Or maybe it is what it is, let's see if they find pilots.

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 02:13 | 2555226 smb12321
smb12321's picture

I wondered how long it would be before Turkey became the bad guy. For a while posters were having wet dreams due toTurkey's fight with Israel. {And when do we begin hearing that it's actually Israel's fault?) this shows the ideological nature of opinion over facts. Syria's regime runs a Soviet style economy and secret police. It is is slaughtering its citizens so that a religious minority can keep in power.

How these thugs morphed into the good guys on ZH is a mystery.

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 09:42 | 2555439 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

"...F4 ducked under radar (less then 1000 feet) ...was able to lock on and shoot the craft down approximately 1km off the Syrian coast. Due to the inertia and velocity of the phantom the aircraft splashed down about 13km off the coast..."

Really?  Shot down at 1,000 feet and then coasts another 10 miles?  That phantom had one hell of a glide ratio.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:25 | 2554557 MSimon
MSimon's picture

Central Planning? Well it is lucky that the Russians don't play that game. Which is why their economy is strong.

 

Demand for gold - up. Good for Russia.

 

Demand for oil - down - bad for Russia.

 

Poland is beginning to frack the Russians. Bad for Russsian Nat. Gas.

 

But yeah. The Russian economy is strong and the stats they let out are good as gold. Better. Would Putin lie to you?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:24 | 2553648 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

please. all western societies are extrmely vulnerable. What happens if we get into a shooting skirmish with Russia and suddenly the whole east coast grid goes down.. via a russian hack.  You dont think that would be game over?  you dont think they have their own vwersion of flame?

Tech has made all nations for the most part very vulnerable. and as far as our banking sector, you relly think it is healthy? really?  my god, you new here?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:50 | 2553718 sablya
sablya's picture

Conficker could easily shut down the entire internet.  It currently controls on the order of 2.5 million PCs worldwide.  It is unclear who controls it but it is a time bomb waiting to be activated at the proper moment. 

As an additional fact, when Russian launched its attack on Georgia in 2008, they took down communication lines and the internet within Georgia. They know what they are doing.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:13 | 2553759 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

It's not hard to take down their internet.  An old lady and garden tools can get it done. 

 

http://internet.ezinemark.com/georgian-granny-shuts-down-the-internet-17bf9c5e622.html

 

 

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 01:09 | 2555183 afton
afton's picture

...hey dude, nothing personal, but there is no "internet" and as long as we have AC/DC, etc. "it" aint going "down"...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interface_Message_Processor

...but you probbly knew that already and were just being humerous...

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 06:01 | 2557151 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Yo, just don't forget IP addresses of your favourite websites. When DNS root nameservers go down for some weird reason, it could come handy. Entire internet doesn't need to go down, just key elements of its infrastructure.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:26 | 2554109 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Quite true sablya. The Russian education system and culture is very tuned into the type of brain power needed for first class computer programing.

Russia lost much of this talent to the west in the 2000's, but now in the 2010's more talent is paid to stay at home. Especially the Russian security services have a lot of petro money to pay for top Russian computer talent.

The USA is overconfident in EVERY way!  Why? Because look at the record, we have been taking down 3rd rate powers since the end of Vietnam. Russia and China are NOT third rate.

A US airstrike flying into a zone defended with Russian S-300 and S-400 along with their short range defensive missiles would PROVE this in spectacular style. Believe it!

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:34 | 2554576 MSimon
MSimon's picture

Russia and China are NOT third rate.

 

Based on the Stats they put out? German reunification? Control of the Eastern block?The decline of the Russian Navy to roughly Zero (esp nuke subs) and coastal Navy status by 2020?

 

And of course we have China - which depends on robust economic growth for stability. A very strong country. On paper. You buying paper? I suppose if you can get a good price on tonnage.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 21:46 | 2554964 phyuckyiu
phyuckyiu's picture

Based on the corpse of a plane shot down within a half mile flying at Mach 2 or higher. Or perhaps you need many more NATO corpses before your America #1 head explodes. Looks like you will get your wish.

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 11:16 | 2555678 destraht
destraht's picture

Does any of that stuff really matter for them?  It seems to me that they decided that they couldn't do most of that so they went all into missile development.  I'm not 100% certain that top of the line Russian missiles can drown top of the line US Navy ships but I'd wager that they could.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:26 | 2553753 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"What happens if we get into a shooting skirmish with Russia and suddenly the whole east coast grid goes down.. via a russian hack."

Why don't you tell this board what you think will happen?  Martial law?  A coup?  Food riots in the street?  Zombie apocalypse?

 

"You dont think that would be game over?"

Absofuckinglutely not!  Study history.  America survived a civil war, numerous regional and foreign wars, recessions, a great depression, the election of Jimmy Carter and G.W. Bush and Obumble to POTUS etc.  A computer virus is not going to be the end of America.

 

"you dont think they have their own version of flame?"

Maybe they do.  See response above.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:57 | 2553839 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

no electricity ended New Orleans in 3 days time, and that was with a functioning country surrounding it.

You are fucking clueless.

Back in the earlier days people knew how to live without electricity, now we dont. Most foods stores have food for 3 days.. Our entire society is based on electricity. Not ONE thing will work without it.

You are....

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:17 | 2553898 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"no electricity ended New Orleans in 3 days time, and that was with a functioning country surrounding it."

That's funny.  New Orleans still seems to exist.  The loss of human life that took place in New Orleans might have been largely mitigated if more of the inhabitants had enough COMMON FUCKING SENSE to leave the city before the storm struck.  For those who didn't own a car or were not highly mobile, they had opportunity to leave if they wanted help doing so.  It is not as if Hurricane Katrina didn't announce its coming presence in advance.  Ever heard of D-O-P-P-L-E-R  R-A-D-A-R?

On the subject of natural disasters, did Japan cease to exist after the earthquake / tsunami / widespread radioactive contamination / widespread loss of electric power.  No?  Gee, I don't remember hearing much about widespread looting or chaos or crime sprees or a zombie apocalypse.  The magnitude of their disaster was far worse that Katrina.

 

"You are fucking clueless."

You are full of shit.  Meredith Whitney is fucking clueless.  In fact, she made the stupidest financial prediction I can recall.

 

"Our entire society is based on electricity. Not ONE thing will work without it."

See comments above re. Japan.

 

"You are...."

I would assign some weight to your comments if you actually had anything intelligent to say on the subject.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:46 | 2553984 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Unlike a hurricane, nuclear "storms" don't seem to accompanied by a three day warning to get out of dodge.  

BIG difference!!!

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:28 | 2554112 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"...nuclear "storms" don't seem to accompanied by a three day warning to get out of dodge."

 What, praytell, do you suppose will be the source of a nuclear "storm"?  Russia?  China?  Bill Ayers?  The Unabomber?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 19:09 | 2554737 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Most likely your insoucient, hubris-filled body exploding when challenged by another commenter.  LOL!

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 10:30 | 2555535 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Flattery will get you nowhere, comrade.  LOL!

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:44 | 2554604 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

Actually, there are quite a few of us americans who know how to do quite a lot without electricity.

 

Isn't it so sad that we all read Zero Hedge and aren't very interested in helping this government out of a jam it got itself into?

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 02:22 | 2555232 smb12321
smb12321's picture

You don't get it. These clowns are actively praying for the. Downfall of the nation. They foam at the mouth and get so excited writing about possible disasters to the nation. To them, a successful solution to our problems is absolutely terrifying.

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 13:33 | 2555996 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

There are indeed some of that type here.

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 03:03 | 2555246 Western
Western's picture

"Isn't it so sad that we all read Zero Hedge and aren't very interested in helping this government out of a jam it got itself into?"

 

What a stupid thing to say.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:10 | 2553882 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

umm.. if the eastern grid was fried, damn right you would see food riots and the implementation of martial law.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:32 | 2553945 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Who do you suppose would "fry the eastern grid"?  Russia?  Russia can't even maintain its own population.  Russia should be more  concerned about China's population expansion and its growing desire for regional resources.  China?  Why would China aggressively strike out at its largest customer on Earth and deal severe economic hardship to it? How will China employ its own citizens if they come to blows with their largest customer and the demand for the goods they manufacture suddenly plummets?  China would have its own problems to deal with if their unemployment rate exploded.  Have you also forgotten how many US Treasuries China owns?  Do you think they want to ever be PAID the interest and principal due them?  Please elaborate in detail why China or Russia would attack the US and deal it severe economic hardship at this time...

P.S. Give some thought to your replies and lay off the puerile insults.  No reasonable person is impressed with ad hominem attacks.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:17 | 2554063 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

OK, here's what I would advocate if I were a young general in Sovietski Soyuz and I wanted to fight and win a war.

1. Launch a 15 kiloton nuke on a EMP trajectory from a cargo vessel  twenty miles off the US east coast, knocking out power in a 200 mile radius, and destroying many of the large, effectively irreplacable EHV transformers.  (And most of the other transformers.)

2. Make sure all intel points to Iran.

3. Tell the Iranians you will protect them, and that's why you gave them all the fancy anti-ship missiles.

4. Tell the US Fifth Fleet  "Iran is all yours, nuke the bastards for all we care.  We have disabled the antiship missiles with secret broadcast codes."

5. Don't disable the missiles.  See what happens.  Either way is good.

6. Offer humanitarian aid to US.

7. Wait for the US east coast spent fuel ponds to start boiling.   Or maybe send in some guys to blow holes in them.  Some 'Iranian' guys.

8. Wait for US fleets & bases to retreat, as US economy collapses.

9. Have Putin walk into Merkel's office, put feet up on desk, and say, (in thick Russian accent) "Pretty lady.  Now you are working for me."

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:43 | 2554175 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Write the novel; I'm willing to pre-order.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 16:17 | 2554420 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

You like that scene with Putin & Merkel?  You want it steamy?

Or maybe we could have like a European ending and an American ending?  The European ending is the one I wrote ^^^^.  

In the American ending, we see:

Putin: They think I conquer world for money, for power.  But they are fools.

Merkel:  What... what are you saying, Vlad ?

Putin:  I conquer world -- for you.  Only for you, my Angelochka.

( music )

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 03:10 | 2555249 Western
Western's picture

Brilliant.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:44 | 2554178 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"OK, here's what I would advocate if I were a young general in Sovietski Soyuz and I wanted to fight and win a war."

Okay, Komrade Richfield.  You get the nomination for "scary delusional" post of the day...  

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 16:18 | 2554423 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

 

 Give some thought to your replies and lay off the puerile insults

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 18:25 | 2554674 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Roger, wilco.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 16:26 | 2554437 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

And that's Tovarishch General Richfield to you, chernozhopy.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 18:27 | 2554679 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Blackass?  Speak for yourself, nudnik.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:37 | 2554582 Hulk
Hulk's picture

My apologies for introducing some reality into this, but kiloton devices don't create EMPs with a 200 mile radius.

You need to start thinking in the Megaton yield range to get a decent EMP.

Thats why it ain't going to happen...

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 19:04 | 2554732 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Dang it.  They blew up the freaking moon in Independence Day with a weapon that would fit in the back of my truck, and hacked into the alien mothership with a MacBook Pro.  Why you ruin my fantasy, big green rage-beast?

I suppose it's not very likely that the Iranians could build a super-weirdo Enhanced EMP Weapon?  (rumors of these things.)

Look, if you mess up my EMP, I'll just go use Tesla Scalar Weapons and then I can make up any damn thing I please.  Pretty soon I'll have them throwing Norway Spirals at each other...

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 00:15 | 2555149 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"4. Tell the US Fifth Fleet  "Iran is all yours, nuke the bastards for all we care.  We have disabled the antiship missiles with secret broadcast codes.""

because who wouldn't listen to that.....

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:02 | 2554243 canardo
canardo's picture

Uhmmm, I don't know, wouldn't surprise me if China considers the US to be its largest liability by now ...

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:08 | 2554263 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Uhmmm, isn't it strange that China is still holiding so many Treasuries issued by a nation it might view as its "largest liability" now...

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:21 | 2554298 canardo
canardo's picture

We'll see what the future holds

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:25 | 2554558 mjk0259
mjk0259's picture

Some believe the Chinese already fried the eastern grid a while back as a test. Clearly they have tens of thousands of hackers working on finding weak spots all the time. Russia not so many but they are better.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:43 | 2553980 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Everyone seems to be forgetting that Russians have scalar!

Plus, they don't publicize and brag incessantly about their "military prowess" like our American "leaders" do.  You can bet that they have a lot of goodies kept secret for future war-fun.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:24 | 2554100 Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

Indeed. Let's not forget that Russia is the URSS in all but name, distilled to its core while its parts have been shed like a submarine shooting debris and oil out of its torpedo tube. It has went into hiding and built upon its strength while America assumed it won and started strutting around like a peacock.

Among the tin-foil hat types I know, there seems to be a distinct consensus that the russians have gone into scalar and directed energy weapons while the westerners were still trying to master 4th generation warfare.

I tend to give their words some weight, as they were obviously right about secret history, deep politics and where the bloodlines' historical dialectics is meant to take us. We've seen these ideas now manifest in phenomenological reality.

What I'm certain about is that I don't want to see what the russians are capable of in WWIII. 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 19:07 | 2554734 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Thanks!  I think the most useful word in your post is "dialectic".

Dialectic.....it's what's for dinner......every damn day of human history!

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:07 | 2554260 canardo
canardo's picture

I would agree. Russia today is not the mess it was during the 90s, basically they're in a lot better shape than we are. And there must be a lot we don't know, don't forget this country is now being led by the kgb and paranoia is part of the Russian psyche.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:27 | 2553660 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

Empires typically collapse:

-right after the peak of their power;

-when they overstretch their military capabilities; and

-out of hubris.

 

Does any of that sound familiar?  The US juggernaut may not be so invulnerable as idiots in DC like to think.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:30 | 2553672 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

I agree, also if we got into a real war and started losing major tech assets daily, who the hell is gonna build new ones?  

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:32 | 2553678 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

China.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:35 | 2553684 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

exactly, being a russian ally Im sure they would get right on our orders.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:20 | 2553773 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

shooting down a plane that barely flies and is no threat will not start a war......someone tell syrian leaders that

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:59 | 2553846 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

this event didnt happen in a vacuum. 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:20 | 2554080 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Wouldn't surprize me if it actually didn't happen at all..., but that's just me.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 21:52 | 2554979 phyuckyiu
phyuckyiu's picture

The fact that the Turks don't want to talk about it much means it most definitely did happen.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:18 | 2553768 11th_hour
11th_hour's picture

"who the hell is gonna build new ones?  "

Damn good question, crawldaddy.

The intentional offshoring of manufacturing jobs (through decades of over regulation) closed the very facilities that it would take to rebuild our country's damaged infrastructure in a time of war.  It would take years to bring facilities back on-line and into production for most things at desired production rates.  We have lost generational skill sets for craftsmen, production employees, and managers alike in communities that it took decades to foster. 

Our domestic manufacturing situation has been collapsing for decades no matter what letter is behind the sitting president's name (D or R).

The defense industry has repair depots, production systems, and delivery chains for war equipment down solidly. However, our achilles heel would be critical infrastructure items in need of repair / replacement in a time of war.   

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:38 | 2553800 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

11th_hour,

I had a career in the manufacturing industry (electronics) before, during, and after the wave of outsourcing took hold (I am now retired).  I saw wholesale outsourcing of manufacturing and engineering jobs long before Lou Dobbs had a word to say about it.  I despised seeing those jobs go abroad, but outsourcing was driven by corporate desire to (a) sustain (and grow if possible) margins on products and services in highly competitive industries and (b) to develop new products and services in emerging nations like China and India to get a foothold in those markets.  No politician in the US was going to stop that process.  Claiming otherwise is patently absurd.  That being said, the US is China's largest customer.  Do you really believe China has some reason to become a military aggressor against its largest customer?  Aside from that, there is no military on Earth that is comparable to the US.  Other nations have nukes, but you know they will not use one on us.  The US is by far the single largest consumer nation on Earth.  The "fatted calf" is not about to be slaughtered by its "providers".

Nobody said the US doesn't have problems, but it is not on the edge of the abyss.

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:02 | 2553852 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

the us has not and cannot win a land war in eastern asia.   The US had the largets and most powerful military in 1960 too, didnt stop vienam from wearing us out.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:35 | 2553955 olduser
olduser's picture

Vietnam didn't wear us out. We simply weren't allowed to fight a war. ROE's are political tools made possible by the sacrifice of good men.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:40 | 2553974 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"the us has not and cannot win a land war in eastern asia."

Please tell me WHY you think China would wage war against its largest customer on Earth?  If China dealt severe economic damage to the US, how would China EMPLOY the millions upon millions of people who produce the goods and services for which demand would suddenly plummet.  Kindly think about your response before typing it here...

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:56 | 2553986 JeffB
JeffB's picture

The U.S. debt + unfunded liabilities is already more than $1 million per taxpayer and climbing rapidly.

Do they really need to coddle an insolvent customer?

According to the laws of supply and demand, an increase in supply will lead to a reduction in price (value). A large increase in supply will typically lead to a large decrease in value.

The Chinese have a very large stockpile of U.S. dollars and bonds promising more U.S. dollars in the future.

The supply of those dollars is increasing exponentially. How highly do you think they value a customer who will pay them in more of those pretty pieces of green paper with pictures of dead presidents on them? Don't you think that publicly decrying the U.S. cranking up the printing press gives some hint that our value as consumers of their goods is decreasing somewhat? What about their efforts to establish a new world reserve currency, or their ongoing program to purchase additional tons of gold, or their agreements with other countries to use other currencies in their trade?

 

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:55 | 2554139 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"Do they really need to coddle an insolvent customer?"

Why doesn't China liquidate its cache of US Treasuries if it fears it will ultimately not be repaid the principal and interest due to them?

 

"How highly do you think they value a customer who will pay them in more of those pretty pieces of green paper with pictures of dead presidents on them?"

See above response.

 

"Don't you think that publicly decrying the U.S. cranking up the printing press gives some hint that our value as consumers of their goods is decreasing somewhat?"

Who is going to immediately replace the demand for Chinese goods and services if they (or Russia etc.) deal a major economic blow to the US?  How will China employ the millions of workers that suddenly become stagnant if China (or Russia etc.) deals a major economic blow to the US?  Do you suppose China cares if its people have jobs?

 

"What about their efforts to establish a new world reserve currency, or their ongoing program to purchase additional tons of gold, or their agreements with other countries to use other currencies in their trade?"

Time will tell.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:03 | 2554466 JeffB
JeffB's picture

John Law Lives: "Why doesn't China liquidate its cache of US Treasuries if it fears it will ultimately not be repaid the principal and interest due to them?" ---

I don't think they worry as much about whether they'll be repaid the principal and interest (in dollars), but rather how much (or how little) they'll be worth. One reason they don't liquidate them en masse is the same reason J P Morgan didn't just liquidate "the Whale's" "hedge of a hedge"... their position is so large it would move the market enough to significantly damage the value of their other holdings.

It's true that another reason is that it would wipe out their peg to the dollar, raising the value of the Renminbi & dropping the value of the dollar even further. That, of course, would hit their exports even more, and that's their current focus.

It's also a classic case of a lender letting a borrower get way too far into hock to them. The lender is between a rock & a hrad place. EZ members are in this situation with the debtor nations. They don't want to throw good money after bad, and yet they can't afford to let them default on their debts. Often they end up trying to help them out, hoping against hope that they'll finally get it together and climb out of the deep hole they're in and then pay them back. Or at least be able to do so with a smaller haircut.

Yet another possibility, I suppose, is that they want to use it for some leverage. They could use it as a threat to the U.S. economy should relations sour to that point, or even as a weapon to hammer the U.S. when the time is ripe. It would obviously cost them to devalue their own currency reserves, but there's always a cost to such hostilities, and it would probably hurt the U.S. worse. Their people could handle living off the land again much easier than Americans. This generation of Chinese has probably already done so, the Americans probably haven't for the most part for a couple of generations.

John Law Lives: "Who is going to immediately replace the demand for Chinese goods and services if they (or Russia etc.) deal a major economic blow to the US?  How will China employ the millions of workers that suddenly become stagnant if China (or Russia etc.) deals a major economic blow to the US?  Do you suppose China cares if its people have jobs?" ---

The U.S. and much of Europe has high unemployment. They could easily cure that situation if they loaned a bunch of money to 3rd world countries so they could have us build new bridges and highways for them, and if we could prop up their currencies enough they could afford to buy cars, trucks, planes and some bicycles for good measure. If our unemployment was still too high, we could also loan them enough to beef up their military and let their people build some houses, and fill them with furnture and big screen TVs. We could even top it off with Wi-fi networks to blanket their countries so they could tie their new iPods and iPads into the worldwide cloud. I'll bet we could teach them to be every bit as good of consumers as Americans have learned to be.

That certainly sounds like a lot more humane way of getting the worldwide economy jump started than nobel laureate Paul Krugman's idea of going to war... or even his somewhat more innocuous idea of going to war with imaginary alians. Why can't third worlders pick up the slack from the first worldians who seem to be balking at their role of ever increasing consumption?

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 16:49 | 2554475 mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

Just before World War 1, Great Britain was Germany's largest customer.

The war still happened, though.  Perhaps because Kaiser Wilhelm was not an accountant?

Money, trade, a good economy -- are only ways to get and maintain power.  For people who love power, those thiongs are not the ends, they are the means. 

If the desire for more power is better served by war, why do you think they would care how their people suffer?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 18:53 | 2554713 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"Just before World War 1, Great Britain was Germany's largest customer.

The war still happened, though. Perhaps because Kaiser Wilhelm was not an accountant?"

Aggressive imperialistic foreign policies of participating nations led to that war.  The world is much more interdependent today than it was ~98 years ago when WWI started... in case you were not aware of that.

 

"If the desire for more power is better served by war, why do you think they would care how their people suffer?"

It is wholly unreasonable to believe China or Russia have any compelling reason to inflict severe economic hardship upon the US.  As it is, the US continues to pour capital investment into China as it consumes Chinese products and services.  Russia can't even sustain its own population.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 18:00 | 2554633 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

China would STILL sell all its stuff to the US after they won the war .... Marshall plan in reverse ...

but they would demand real stuff in return instead of our worthless paper!

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:43 | 2553977 JeffB
JeffB's picture

Being a consumer is easy, especially when producers and savers are loaning you the money to buy the stuff you're consuming.

In 2010 we spent 39% more than our total revenues. Not sure what the number was for 2011 but I'm sure it was still far above total revenues. Companies don't consider insolvent customers who want to continue consuming their products, but only if they can do so on credit, to be a valuable asset.

China or any other country would be better off consuming their production themselves or selling it to others who are capable of giving them something valuable in return vs loaning money to the US to consume their products if they can't pay it back, or can't do so without printing ever higher piles of fiat IOUs.

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:54 | 2554005 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

China's fiat IOU's are just as funny as ours, perhaps worse.  They are printing with reckless abandon.  And I mean actually printing, not just the USA *poof* here's some money on a screen.  

 

They aren't savers.  They are us X 1000. 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:11 | 2554521 JeffB
JeffB's picture

I have to agree with you about their currency. By pegging it to the dollar which is currently in a race to the bottom, they have to have a toilet paper currency almost by definition.

I'm not sure how they stack up as savers. Their government has been recommending they buy gold with their savings, though their per capita income is probably still pretty low. I thought I've read, however, that most families do value saving for the future pretty high. If so, perhaps that's a by product of no health care, no social security etc.  A little ironic perhaps that the "capitalist" U.S. has a far more comprehensive social safety net than communist countries.

 

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 18:12 | 2554653 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

the chinese are savers

differentiate between the policies of the government, and the financial attitudes of the people.

americans have a greater reliance on social welfare and safety net programs, and an expectation that they will be available

the chinese have little or no delusions in this regard, and for the most part have an understanding that they need to have savings of their own for any sense of security in life.

l believe i read an article not long ago that said the savings rate for the average chinese worker is somewhere around 25%, the average american around 2%

 

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 20:40 | 2554851 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

The social welfare and safety net is what has destroyed this country. Not a day goes by we don't hear about 23 million people without jobs, yet this silly immigration debate wears on. They do jobs americans "won't" do. There are 23 million people who should not have a choice but to do those jobs. 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 16:57 | 2554487 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Using the fatted calf as an example sounds suspiciously like that thanksgiving turkey

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:16 | 2553764 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"Does any of that sound familiar?"

Yes.  I would consider it highly relevant right now if there was a legitimate military power on Earth ready to challenge the US for supremacy.  There is not.  China's military and Russia's military are not remotely comparable.  China and Russia have nukes.  Gee, do you really think they are about to use one of them on us?  Do you think it is just a coincidence that no nation on Earth other than the US actually ever used a nuke in warefare... ~67 years ago?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:26 | 2553787 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

There is no single nation today that has more military power than the US - but most wars of the last century have involved alliances and coalitions.  A coalition among Russia, China, and one or two mideast countries would be extremely powerful.  In contrast, only the US among western countries has any real ability to project power beyond its shores (the UK and France each have token abilities, sufficient to do battle with renegade islands with populations under 100,000).

The US supply line to the mideast is so overextended it's insane.  It makes Germany's supply line into the Soviet Union look short and easily defended.

As people have noted, the US is sorely lacking in manufacturing capability.  Sure, the high-tech weapons we still make here.  We need a range of materials and parts to go into them, not all of which are made domestically, and many sourced from China.  And we are severely lacking in our ability to make repair parts for any major equipment or infrastructure without foreign inputs - again leading to China.

WWII Germany was defeated by bombing its factories and strangling its oil supply, while the US had EVERYTHING it needed domestically and simply out-produced anyone else.  If we are foolish enough to get into a WWIII today, we may be defeated by being unable to produce what we need domestically, unable to source our raw materials domestically, and having our oil supply strangled.  Russia and China have much shorter and easier to defend supply lines for almost everything they need.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:47 | 2553807 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"A coalition among Russia, China, and one or two mideast countries would be extremely powerful."

 (1) The US is China's largest customer.  Why would China become a military aggressor against its largest customer?

 (2) Russia can not even replace its own population through natural childbirth.  Russia should be more concerned about China's population expansion and growing need for natural resources.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:04 | 2553858 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

The US has been China's largest customer.  As someone in business, I will say that a customer is only as valuable as their ability and willingness to pay you.  When people stop paying you, they stop being good customers.  Maybe, just maybe, China has noticed that the USD is on less than granite footing and that the US will have trouble offering China anything of real value in payment going forward.  Maybe.

As for Russia, yes they are fucked with their population and health/drunkenness issues, but that just means they have even less time to take decisive action for their future.  Russia is like a 42 yo single woman who still wants to have biological children.  Tick tick tick.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:38 | 2554161 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"The US has been China's largest customer. As someone in business, I will say that a customer is only as valuable as their ability and willingness to pay you. When people stop paying you, they stop being good customers. Maybe, just maybe, China has noticed that the USD is on less than granite footing and that the US will have trouble offering China anything of real value in payment going forward. Maybe."

How would China employ the millions of workers who produce goods and services if China (or Russia) suddenly dealt a major economic blow to the US?  Do you think China cares about employing its own people?   Think about your response for a bit before typing it.

 

"As for Russia, yes they are fucked with their population and health/drunkenness issues, but that just means they have even less time to take decisive action for their future. Russia is like a 42 yo single woman who still wants to have biological children. Tick tick tick."

And you think dealing a major economic blow to the largest consumer nation on Earth is a winning move?  Really?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 20:42 | 2554856 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Just a correction but China's largest customer is the EU

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 10:50 | 2555551 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

I said in another post that I wasn't comparing the US to the entire European Union.  It is not reasonable to compare the US with an entire group of nations in that regard.  The US is the SINGLE largest foreign consumer of Chinese products.  The EU is a diverse collection of nations, and it will almost certainly change form soon enough.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 21:56 | 2554986 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

China cares about employing its people, to the extent that this is the easiest route to maintain political control and social order.  There are other, less pleasant, routes to those ends.  But you can't keep people employed if you don't have an income to share with them as wages, and you won't have that income if your main "customer" can't pay - pay in something with real value.

As for Russia, they could give fuck-all about the US's consumer economy.  Russia exports oil, gas, and weapons, and that's it.  IT.  We aren't buying any of those from Russia.  Their sales of oil and gas wouldn't be affected by disappearance of the US from the market, and their sales of weapons would increase if we were no longer able to sell into that market.  I don't think Russia is focused on economic reasons, but the economics involved would be neutral to in their favor anyway.

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 10:42 | 2555565 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"But you can't keep people employed if you don't have an income to share with them as wages, and you won't have that income if your main "customer" can't pay - pay in something with real value."

When has the US ever defaulted on an interest payment due to holders of US Treasuries?  When was that?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43140915/Has_the_United_States_Ever_Defaulted_on_...

 

"As for Russia, they could give fuck-all about the US's consumer economy."

I didn't claim they did.  I said Russia is a nation in decline that can not even replace its own population.  Russia should be more concerned about possible future territorial aggression from a rapidly growing China when it comes to securing scarce resources etc.

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 11:41 | 2555739 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

When has the US ever defaulted on an interest payment due to holders of US Treasuries?  When was that?

Are you really that dumb?  I'm being quite clear about real value, not nominal fiat currency units.  Only a few dumb countries default on debt denominated in their own nominal fiat currency units.  But if a central bank prints, prints and prints some more so that the currency is worth half or a tenth or whatever of what it was at the time of debt issuance, the holder of the debt is losing their ass.  Even the 12yo trolls on ZH know this.  I'm guessing you do too, but are the paid troll du jour for this article.

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 13:28 | 2555955 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"But you can't keep people employed if you don't have an income to share with them as wages, and you won't have that income if your main "customer" can't pay - pay in something with real value."  -  Mad Max

Last time I checked, China still considers the US Dollar to have some "real value"... considering they hold quite a lot of those US Dollars and continue to willingly accept those US Dollars in exchange for products and services produced in China.  They also openly court (and receive) substantial investment capital from the US.

 

"I'm being quite clear about real value, not nominal fiat currency units."  -  Mad Max

You are expressing your opinion.  Considering how many US Dollars China has accrued over the years and still willingly accepts in exchange for their products and services, I suspect they still find some "real value" in them.  If you think otherwise, please contact Wen Jiabao and give him this lecture...

 

"But if a central bank prints, prints and prints some more so that the currency is worth half or a tenth or whatever of what it was at the time of debt issuance, the holder of the debt is losing their ass."  -  Mad Max

See response above.

 

"Even the 12yo trolls on ZH know this. I'm guessing you do too, but are the paid troll du jour for this article."  -  Mad Max

You are certifiably full of shite.  I have been a subscriber to ZH for a time period approaching 2 years, and unless you are a Tyler, my participation here is as legit as your own.

 

"Are you really that dumb?"  Mad Max

Quite the contrary, Mad Max.  You are in no position to call anyone dumb.

As an aside, have you ever set foot in China?  If not, kindly don't bother formulating an uninformed reply.  I have set foot in China many times.  I worked for several electronics manufacturing companies that outsourced the manufacturing of many different products to China (beginning back in the 1990s before Lou Dobbs had much to say about outsourcing).  I believe I have as much insight re. their culture as other commenters here.  The Chinese people are nationalistic, but they have a hunger for Western culture that many can not possibly imagine.  Their citizens want good jobs and a better standard of living.  They want new cars and new clothes and new homes and the newest cellphones and iGadgets and to watch the NBA (they love basketball) and to have high-speed internet access etc.  Any notion perpetuated by participants on this website that China is the bogeyman is complete bollocks.  The Chinese government is TERRIFIED at the prospect of surging unemployment among its citizens and the civil unrest that would immediately follow, and there is no realistic chance that China is preparing to deal some lethal economic blow to the US.  For anyone here to say otherwise is complete and utter folly.

Now, have a nice day!

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:05 | 2553859 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

Russia military wares are among the best in the world. In an asian conflict, china if they called up their reserves has at the ready a 30 MILLION man army.  There is no defense against that. Plus China is now what we were, a sleeping giant, their manufacturing capaibility would far outstrip our in a war.

As far as the customer crap, things can change very fast.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:30 | 2554114 John Wilmot
John Wilmot's picture

china if they called up their reserves has at the ready a 30 MILLION man army

Will they be swimming to California?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:50 | 2554193 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"Will they be swimming to California?"

That is both funny and accurate.  China's Navy has a l-o-n-g way to go to becoming first rate...

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:28 | 2554565 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Outsorcing makes wonders, both for the economy and for domestic application of outsorced know-how...

Remember "the November surprise" off the Cali coast in 2010?

http://www.wnd.com/2010/11/230425/

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 18:17 | 2554658 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

oh, please.

they can probably get a one way ticket to tijuana for like $600, maybe less in bulk

then sneak across the border like everyone else

i know what you're thinking, airlines won't let them bring their weapons on the plane.

not a problem, just buy american guns from the mexican drug lords

voila! pacific crossing solved!

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 21:42 | 2554703 Jorgen
Jorgen's picture

@2554114  Imho, if WW3 started, SCO troops would rather try getting to North America via Alaska than California.

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 09:46 | 2555443 falak pema
falak pema's picture

they wont have to there is enuff garbage junked into the pacific by the US for them to "walk on water" to california! 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:11 | 2554268 Think for yourself
Think for yourself's picture

"China will catch a cold"...

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:12 | 2554276 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

I'm still waiting hear hear a valid argument as to WHY Russia or China would choose to deal a major economic blow to the largest consumer on Earth.  Do you suppose China, for example, would care if millions of its own people suddenly became idle if the US demand for Chinese products and services suddenly seized up?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:24 | 2554554 nicxios
nicxios's picture

They would go idle anyway. The ponzi is nearing the end. Collapse is near and everybody(99.9%) loses. 

But instead of having the masses wake up and hang the bankers and their puppets,  TPTB will do what they have done before: war.

This all leads to what was planned all along: One world governance.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 18:18 | 2554663 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Confucious say: "Customer not always right! GTFO!"

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 18:17 | 2554660 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

With reserves 30MM man army.

I would check to see what exactly a reservist means in China.  Not necessarily someone who has the training and experience of the regulars.  Most of these "reserves" may be just workers who come in during natural disasters to help out and to build roads and dig holes.

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 09:35 | 2555435 malikai
malikai's picture

I see PLA "reserves" all the time in Beijing. I would not fuck with them.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:22 | 2553916 Impotent_Smurf
Impotent_Smurf's picture

1.) Because the US owes a sum of money that it eventually will not be able to pay. The "customers" credit card will become invalid, only time will tell when, but I think soon enough. China knows that, the rest of the world does too. Chess pieces are being moved right now, all in anticipation of this major event. When it does go down, it will be the most violent action to ever occur in human history, bet your ass on it.

2.) Russians should fuck more, I agree.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:36 | 2553957 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"1.) Because the US owes a sum of money that it eventually will not be able to pay. The "customers" credit card will become invalid, only time will tell when, but I think soon enough."

Really?  Care to project a timeline onto your prediction?

 

"2.) Russians should fuck more, I agree."

Russia is a country with a very bleak future.  They should be more concerned with future Chinese aggression re. local resources.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 15:04 | 2559097 e-recep
e-recep's picture

a full-blown thermo-nuclear war maybe? i am not joking.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:35 | 2554334 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

"WWII Germany was defeated by bombing its factories..."

You obviously get your bullshit history from the MSM otherwise you would have known about the Area Bombing Directive and Churchill's jew supremacist cohort Frederick Lindeman.

Area bombing directive

The Area Bombing Directive was a directive from the wartime British Government's Air Ministry to the Royal Air Force which ordered RAF bombers to attack the German industrial workforce and the morale of the German populace through bombing German cities and their civilian inhabitants.

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Area_bombing_directive      

 

His proposal that "bombing must be directed to working class houses. Middle class houses have to much space round them, so are bound to waste bombs" changed accepted conventions of limiting civilian casualties in wartime

 

 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Lindemann,_1st_Viscount_Cherwell     

 

 

 

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 22:02 | 2554994 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

RAF bombing raids were mostly at night and fairly puny relative to the US.  At night the accuracy was terrible so hitting a city in general was all you could really expect.  Not saying there wasn't the goal you outlined, but goals do not automatically equal achievements.  Also, if you want to talk war crimes, the firebombing of Dresden would be good to focus on, attributable to that merry old chap Churchill.

The US did mostly daytime raids, which allowed greater precision at the expense of incredible losses.  US raids focused more on large industrial targets like factories.

And anyway, Germany did remarkably well at continuing production in the face of incredible aerial destruction.  What they couldn't do was keep going without oil.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:28 | 2553788 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Take your flag sucking elsewhere please.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:44 | 2553811 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Are you a Tyler?  Do you have some governance over this forum?  If not, kindly bugger off.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:03 | 2553851 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

This is fight club bich, I'm not going anwhere until I smack the shit out of you.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:33 | 2553950 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

john law was smacked the fuck up good and proper at the top of this thread. don't feed this troll.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:53 | 2554101 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

You are delusional.  There has not been one compelling argument on this thread refuting my rebuttals to your absurd post at the top of this thread.  However, I am amused by your absurd claim of "victory" and strategic retreat.  Run away!  Run away!

As far as my being a "troll", unless you are a Tyler who facilitates this site, my participation here is as legitimate on ZH as your own.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:33 | 2553953 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

You don't have the mental faculties to "smack the shit" out of me, but you are welcome to try.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:46 | 2554610 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

With all the shit that gets out of Fukushima, launching some nuclear warheads can't be much worse.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:29 | 2553938 JeffB
JeffB's picture

Maybe such a collapse is a goal of puppetmasters of those in power now.

It certainly seems so at times. It's the only thing that makes logical sense for otherwise seemingly illogical actions.

Of course sometimes people act illogically on their own, but still...

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:30 | 2553667 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Well maybe the US can lend some F22s to Turkey then.  Oh wait... it doesn't even have enough money to finish procuring its own.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/feb/5/fleets-fade-away-with-pen...

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:33 | 2553681 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

F-22 is a piece of junk, so who cares. Hasnt even flown one fucking combat mission and we have been at war for a decade. It doesnt have a real purpose, and it doesnt even allow its pilots to fucking breath.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:01 | 2553743 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

Looks cool at airshows, though. Well worth the money for that alone!

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:01 | 2554006 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Mitzibitzi

You forgot the sarc tags. Numbnuts are gonna down arrow ya because they do not know sarcasm when they see it.

There is some nice footage on this video of the F-22 performing at an air show. Excuse the really old One-Hit Wonder song!  ;-)

Watch the entire 3:32, the F-22 is the dominant aircraft in this video, with few exceptions.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfhpAVvrqRg&list=PL52DE4CE76551DEF1&index=2&feature=plpp_video

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 18:30 | 2554683 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Wow, it can go vertical and almost looks like it turned on a dime?  I thought jets would stall?

 

Sucks if this thing turns out to be junk, as per your below comment re: corrosion + with that issue of pilots losing oxygen.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:25 | 2553924 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Your right on that front. I have a friend out in Calipornia who works on them. Says the planes are eating themselves alive with corrosion problems. Lockheed chose to utilize a custom blend of aluminum, which apparently has corrosion issues. Could be a big part of the reason the orders were halted at 189 aircraft, instead of the 750 originally intended.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 11:55 | 2553730 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

 @ jonny law "Osama bin Laden’s goal of dragging the United States into the middle eastern quagmire, and thereby bankrupting America has been an unmitigated success". this purblind and myopic analysis from the commentator is equaled only by the gratuitous assumption concerning the supposed unassailable supremacy of the United States.

all great empires have fallen from corruption and decay from within.our corporate fascist business model has allowed for the wholesale looting of the assets and resources of this nation by an international elite which has been proceeding unimpeded with active governmental collusion for decades.

with the effective downgrade of major US banks and the crack in the trillion dollars derivative positions growing exponentially, those "Changes in some form may be on the horizon" will be extreme and catastrophic. self serving illusions such as the above will eventually crash hard on the unforgiving shoals of economic and social realities.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:22 | 2553778 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"This purblind and myopic analysis from the commentator is equaled only by the gratuitous assumption concerning the supposed unassailable supremacy of the United States."

Nobody said the US was impregnable.  However, it is not on the edge of the abyss today.  The US has a Central Bank that does control the supply of the world's reserve currency (today), and no military power on Earth compares with the US... not even close.  Other nations do have nukes, but you know damn well they will not use one on us... just as no nation on Earth (other than the US) ever used one in warfare.  Using a nuke on the US would beget annihilation, and no nation-state on Earth is willing to risk that.

 

"with the effective downgrade of major US banks and the crack in the trillion dollars derivative positions growing exponentially, those "Changes in some form may be on the horizon" will be extreme and catastrophic."

Care to elaborate?  Martial law?  Military coup?  Food riots?  Zombie apocalypse?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:06 | 2553864 malek
malek's picture

 However, it is not on the edge of the abyss today.

That is more like a non-statement. Care to give a guesstimate for how long we continue to not be on the edge going forward?

Think about the 10% of GDP deficit: it works until it doesn't. The interesting question is how much the military might will diminish when the gov't runs out of acceptable money to pay the troops with and the firms who develop the weapon systems.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:22 | 2554294 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"That is more like a non-statement. Care to give a guesstimate for how long we continue to not be on the edge going forward?"

Kindly follow this thread from the top down.  I am not the one who asserted that the US was "on the verge of keeling over".  vast-dom asserted that.  Let vast-dom first propose how long the US has before "keeling over" and we will take it from there.

 

"Think about the 10% of GDP deficit: it works until it doesn't."

I am as appalled as you are.  That is why I supported Ron Paul and voted for him in the Texas GOP Primary.  I wish he had won.  Our best hope is for enough fiscal conservatives to join ranks and restore some fiscal sanity to Washington.  I am not terribly encouraged about it right now.  Obumble needs to go ASAP.

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:05 | 2553749 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

I tend to agree with you, and yet----TIPPING POINTS DO EXIST-----

I think the tipping point that we are most likely witnessing now is that the U.S. and NATO are going to back down from their aggression in syria. they will continue to fund and weaponize and strategize, but they will not bomb syria. eventually the rebels will be ruthlessly put down. 

you see. if the U.S. were smart, they'd want to either see the outcome where Syria collapse and the rebels take over OR---massive ammounts of Syrian Government Massacre are necessary for the Syrian Military to win. 

Either way, the U.S. and Nato win. Eventually if the country enteres a self destructive spiral, this benefits U.S. becasue it weakens Syria generally for the purposes of Allying with Russia and China by way of Iran. 

------it's not as clear of a win for the U.S. as would be a syrian government collapse as in Libya, but this is no matter. 

THE U.S. HOWEVER CANNOT ENGAGE CHINA AND RUSSIA because of the overindebtedness of the U.S. to China and the weak hands of Europe. The European Financial collapse is the real tipping point here. and While China's economy might implode they still retain the trump card of owning massive quantities of European and America Debt. Until the U.S. and Europe are strong enough financial to withstand a financial dump by China, they cannot do as they please in the middle east. 

i don't think that the u.s. or Nato is scared of a MILITARY escalation with russia. russia is not going to sacrifice itself for Syria. No-one believe that shit for a second. We've been through this with russia so many times since wwii. Proxy wars are proxy wars, they will be fought as long as the proxy country has enough people to kill themselves with. In Vietnam lines were drawn . In Syria, the line drawn is that no direct military attacks will be tolerated. So what? Funding the rebels and planting Arabian Mercenaries in the country is more than enough to keep a war going indefinitely. Warmongering is NOT going to stop. The U.S. machine has been pretty predicatable in that respect. 

The only that stops war from the U.S. Machine is a massive great depression. At which point, the troops come home and with the help of the DHS and TSA and the FAA's drones, they start a whole different sort of operation here on american soil. that is how this history of these things go. Somehow, I see that as a remote possibility. More likely we have 20 years of Japanese style inflation-deflation before this possibility can be considered more realistic. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 12:54 | 2553834 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"THE U.S. HOWEVER CANNOT ENGAGE CHINA AND RUSSIA because of the overindebtedness of the U.S. to China and the weak hands of Europe."

(1) The US is China's largest customer. Why would China become a military aggressor against its largest customer?

(2) Russia can not even replace its own population through natural childbirth. Russia should be more concerned about China's population expansion and growing need for natural resources.

 

"More likely we have 20 years of Japanese style inflation-deflation before this possibility can be considered more realistic."

I would not underestimate the Fed's ability to keep the wheels turning a long time.  Perhaps the great RESET button will get pushed and the finance system will be reformatted.  If so, I still don't believe the US will cease to exist.  I think any such prediction is unreasonable at this point.

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 13:09 | 2553874 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

noone is saying the "US" will cease to exist, we are saying the society we had enjoyed for many decades here in the US MAY cease to exist.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:28 | 2554314 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

There is no doubt that the standard of living for many Americans has declined (and will continue to do so).  I think the Commie Manchurian Candidate we have in office today wants that.  I hope everyone here fully realizes how rotten to the core he really is.  It is a real shame that we can't elect a qualified man like Ron Paul to run the ship... but that is the harsh reality.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:13 | 2554053 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

As the forest grew, so the ax handle grew with it

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:21 | 2554087 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

You keep saying that the US is China's biggest customer.  Not sure that is true any longer.  And the trend is not in favor if it still is (barely) true.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:35 | 2554331 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The US is the single largest foreign consumer of Chinese goods.  I am not comparing the US to the entire European Union.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:34 | 2554577 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

No, actually the European Union is. Cheaper transportation costs.

2011 figures

European Union - imported 356 while exporting 211 with China

USA - imported 324 while exporting 122 with China

 

Source:

http://www.china-embassy.org/eng/xw/t272113.htm

EU replaces U.S. as biggest trading partner of China(09/15/06)

  The EU replaced the United States as China's biggest trading partner last year, said Xu Kuangding, Chairman of the China Federation of Industrial Economics (CFIE) on Sep.14.

    As one of the keynote speakers at the opening of a Sino-European economic summit, Xu said Sino-European trade, with a volume of 217.3 billion U.S. dollars, has exceeded the Sino-U.S. trade volume by some 5.7 billion dollars.

    European companies such as Airbus, Siemens, Nokia and Volkswagen, made the EU the fourth largest investor in China and China's most important supplier of technology, Xu said in a speech at the second Hamburg Summit -- "China meets Europe."

    Speaking of EU's concern over intellectual property rights protection in China, Xu asked European business leaders to show a little more patience on this issue.

    "Until fairly recently, China had a long history of having a largely agrarian-based economy where it was customary to try and learn from one's neighbors. The concept of intellectual property was therefore quite new to China's burgeoning industrial sector. "he said.

    The Chamber of Commerce Hamburg, which initiated the summit, expected more than 350 economic, political and scientific leaders from both China and Europe to attend the event which will run until Sep.15.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 18:35 | 2554684 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"No, actually the European Union is."

Did you read the post you are responding to?  I plainly said I was not comparing the US to the European Union.  I do not regard the entire European Union as one single customer.  It is not reasonable to do so.  The European Union is diverse, and it may well unravel as it is.  

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 20:13 | 2554815 MSimon
MSimon's picture

 

EU replaces U.S. as biggest trading partner of China(09/15/06)

 

That is looking really brilliant these days. Inint it. 

Sun, 06/24/2012 - 10:46 | 2555582 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

What would anyone like to bet that the EU looks very different in a few years?

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 14:30 | 2554123 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

You're missing the tipping point, remember the two wars policy?

Why do you think the US military were so happy about the draw down and withdrawls?

American dominance is not yet solely based on nukes its based on the control of the sea and air, game it from the russian or chinese POV.

Stop imposing your own national/racial prejidices and "superior" hail mary american military tactics, look at what chinese/russian platform capabilities are and gauge their intentions/use.

China and russia will use proxies to deny the west control of airspace and sea lanes, once you are busy in N korea and Iran, venezuela etc they will assert control of the south china sea and defact control of the sea of japan, possibly even support india's extension over its island chains, and the only response the west can make will be words not carrier task groups.

 

 

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 15:50 | 2554362 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"You're missing the tipping point, remember the two wars policy?

Why do you think the US military were so happy about the draw down and withdrawls?"

I was personally opposed to military action in Iraq from day one.  I openly question the net benefit of a prolonged engagement in Afghanistan.  There is no doubt those two military ventures have been very costly.

 

"Stop imposing your own national/racial prejidices and "superior" hail mary american military tactics, look at what chinese/russian platform capabilities are and gauge their intentions/use."

Kindly follow the thread here from the top down.  vast-dom started the string of comments by asserting that the US was "on the verge of keeling over".  I believe otherwise, and I have stated my views.  I did not precipitate this thread by simply waving the US flag in anyone's face here.  I responded to vast-dom's assertions.

 

"China and russia will use proxies to deny..."

China, for example, has no compelling reason to inflict severe economic damage upon the US.  Quite the contrary.   China enjoys an overwhelmingly favorable balance of trade with the US, and the US has (and will continue to) make a substantial amount of capital investment in China.  Demand for Chinese goods and services by the US employs millions of Chinese people.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 16:43 | 2554462 robobbob
robobbob's picture

you only have as good a military as you can afford. right now the US combat equipment is worn out and paper thin. could the US afford a war of attrition against the two powers most infamous for their lackadaisical concern for losses?

and this isn't WW2. how do you think the eaters would react when they find out thier section 8 and CHIP vouchers are being cut off to fund the war effort? as an added bonus, most weapons are HIGH TECH now. no legions of rosie riveter GED level jobs to soak up the masses.

WIC 4 Weapons? I don't see anyone getting elected on that slogan.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 18:39 | 2554690 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"could the US afford a war of attrition against the two powers most infamous for their lackadaisical concern for losses?"

The question on the table is not how the US would fare in such a war.  The question is WHY would China or Russia want to inflict heavy economic damage upon the US.  I haven't heard one compelling reason.  I named several compelling reasons why they wouldn't.

 

"how do you think the eaters would react when they find out thier section 8 and CHIP vouchers are being cut off to fund the war effort?"

I do not believe there is going to be a war involving Russia / China / US anytime soon.

Sat, 06/23/2012 - 17:29 | 2554567 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

In a conflict of that scale, we all fall into the abyss.

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