Guest Post: Does Syria Want A War?

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by John Aziz of Azizonomics

Does Syria Want A War?

We know for sure that Syria intentionally shot down a Turkish — and thus protected by NATO — warplane in its airspace. We also know that Syria is comfortable enough to admit it.

The AP reports:

Syria said Friday it shot down a Turkish military plane that entered Syrian air space, and Turkey vowed to “determinedly take necessary steps” in response.

 

It was the most clear and dramatic escalation in tensions between the two countries, which used to be allies before the Syrian revolt began in March 2011. Turkey has become one of the strongest critics of the Syrian regime’s brutal response to the country’s uprising.

 

Late Friday, Syria’s state-run news agency, SANA, said the military spotted an “unidentified aerial target” that was flying at a low altitude and at a high speed.

 

“The Syrian anti-air defenses counteracted with anti-aircraft artillery, hitting it directly,” SANA said. “The target turned out to be a Turkish military plane that entered Syrian airspace and was dealt with according to laws observed in such cases.”

It seems pretty clear that the Syrians know the consequences of their actions. NATO (including deluded US hawks who are happy to ignore the disastrous consequences of the drug war on the US border while talking up more intervention in the middle east) and the NATO-backed Syrian opposition has been looking for any excuse to get stuck into a new interventionist mission. We know that the NATO-backed opposition were prepared to try and get a British journalist killed in a false flag operation in order to trigger a Western intervention.

So why did Russia-armed Syria do it? And why (given the age of F-4 aircraft, it could easily have crashed of its own accord giving the Syrians a lot of plausible deniability) are they not at least denying that they shot it down?

Is it possible that the wider Eurasian anti-American coalition led by the Russians and the Chinese are confident that NATO will not intervene out of fear of triggering a wider war? After all the Russian naval base has been a great obstacle to NATO intervention. Libya didn’t have any Russian bases, and it took far less internal violence for NATO to intervene there.

Is it even possible that the Eurasians are trying to provoke NATO into another costly and damaging war? After all, the American Empire is much more indebted and militarily overstretched than it was before 9/11. Osama bin Laden’s goal of dragging the United States into the middle eastern quagmire, and thereby bankrupting America has been an unmitigated success. Could the Eurasians be trying to provoke a regional war in order to weaken NATO and draw attention away from  their own weakened economic picture?

Or is this just a case of an overzealous Syrian military commander taking a potshot at an unidentified flying object and provoking a diplomatic crisis?

As someone who does not believe that war is in any way an economic stimulus and should be avoided beyond self-preservation, I hope that this crisis — and the wider Syrian situation — can be defused.

Those who want to see a big military-Keynesian stimulus may be hoping for an escalation…

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vast-dom's picture

here is the gambit: Russia's banking sector and economy is, relatively and in general terms, strong. they realize the USA and Europe are on the verge of keeling over.....they also know the the right black swan event will push the west over the abyss....this would be PAYBACK for the USA manipulating oil prices down in the 80s which led to the demise of the USSR....payback is a bitch; by proxy......and of course today Russia benefits from higher oil prices.....

John Law Lives's picture

"...the USA and Europe are on the verge of keeling over.....they also know the the right black swan event will push the west over the abyss..."

The US has, by far, the most modern military in the world, and it has a Central Bank that can (and will) manipulate the money supply as it sees fit.  The US is not teetering on the edge of its very existence.  Changes in some form may be on the horizon, but falling into the abyss is another matter.

vast-dom's picture

talk to me after the next crash a la the recent 2008 one. and re-read some of the recent articles here on central planning and fed efficacy etc. 

John Law Lives's picture

You will first need to pull your head out of the sand before we speak...

Paul Atreides's picture

Additional info:

The Turkish F4 ducked under radar (less then 1000 feet) approximately 10-20 clicks north of the Syrian border and made a straight bee line at high speed over the north west corner of Syria in a south west heading. There are confirmed reports of the phantom ripping past a vew Syrian villages at high speed on its course towards the mediterranean slipping in and out of anti aircraft radar. Once the aircraft cleared the inland terrain Syrian radar was able to lock on and shoot the craft down approximately 1km off the Syrian coast. Due to the inertia and velocity of the phantom the aircraft splashed down about 13km off the coast equidistance from both the Syrian and Turkish borders.

Additional Analysis:

The aircraft was a provacative probe to test the Syrian air defenses for the upcoming NATO air assault and no fly zone. There is a high probability that the phantom was unmanned and rigged by the US for a high speed low altitude dash over Syria due to the likelyhood of the craft being shot down.

tony wilson's picture

good intel.

it was manned.

it actually had 2 kurdish political prisoners blindfolded and strapped down.

they where told that they would be flying home by the traitorous perfidious turk.

and in typical cia folk tale bin ladin style they where buried at sea.

Spirit Of Truth's picture

Does Syria want war?

Yes....and Damascus is doing Moscow's bidding in this regard IMHO:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2009/05/russias-secret-war-plans.html

Why do you think the 'opposition' is being armed by the Syrian military?

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/syria/120606...

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/jan-june12/syria_06-22.html (in the PBS News segment, some bullets provided to the opposition are purported to be explosive....however, can you imagine the U.S. military arming the Taliban in order to provide a portion of sabotaged arms?  The 'good' weapons are still being used to kill your own side.  This makes no sense.)

Keep in mind the following:

 


Jan. 23, 2011
 - Iran announces a naval flotilla will be sent to pass through the Red Sea and Mediterranean Sea w/some warships going through the Suez Canal.

Jan. 25, 2011 - Egyptian revolution begins.

Jan. 26, 2011 - Iranian naval vessels depart for Mediterranean Sea.

Feb. 6, 2011 - Iran's naval vessels dock at Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the first time Iranian warships are permitted at a Saudi Arabian port since '79 revolution given the poor relations between the states.

Feb. 11, 2011 - Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak overthrown on 32nd anniversary of overthrow of the Shah in Iran

Feb. 22, 2011 - Iranian naval vessels pass through Suez Canal and enter the Mediterranean Sea for the first time since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

 

Here's the big question mark. 

How did Iran know Hosni Mubarak would be overthrown before the Egyptian revolt even began such that there'd be an opportunity for Iranian naval vessels to pass through the Suez Canal? 

Here's another important question: Why does this world fail to heed me??!!

 

mick_richfield's picture

 

Why does this world fail to heed me??!!


Well, it's not because of your font.  The font is good.  Maybe there's something else about the world you don't understand. 

Jack Burton's picture

Nice informative post Paul! All quite plausable. I mean, an F-4???? That was a main line US Navy Carrier plane when I was a 17 year old US Navy Sailor, and that was a LONG time ago!

How on earth is Turkey flying F-4s operationally? Looks more like a drone aircraft or one that a crew with either great courage or great ignorance flew on a provocation mission.

Oddly they claim AA gunfire made the kill. Russia sells some deadly light AA guns. They also have a good line of short range mobile missiles. Along with the big S-300 and new S-400.

If Syria could deply just a few mobile S-300, then a no fly zone might include some NATO aircraft as well!!!

Paul Atreides's picture

Thanks! Geo-politics and Military analysis is kind of a hobby still learning the financial and economic analysis from Tylers. Confirmed reports are that the kill was made by medium range anti-air Pantsyr-1 battery recently supplied by Moscow. This weapon can down aircraft flying at altitudes up to 12 kilometers and cruise missiles and is unique in that it combines two 2A38M 30mm anti-aircraft guns and up to 8 x 57E6-E ready-to-fire missiles in steered launch containers. The unit responsible for the ambush was the 73rd brigade of the Syrian army’s 26th Air Defense Division.

phyuckyiu's picture

Downed within a half mile, with an aircraft flying at Mach 2 or more? Looks like a missile company in Russia is about to get some big orders. Oh but right, I forgot, Russia doesn't know how to make anything. Maybe they should be concerned about all the Sunburns pointed at Dimona after all.

BorisTheBlade's picture

How on earth is Turkey flying F-4s operationally? Looks more like a drone aircraft or one that a crew with either great courage or great ignorance flew on a provocation mission.

It could be QF-4:

Mission
The supersonic QF-4 is a reusable full-scale target drone modified from the F-4 Phantom. The QF-4 provides a realistic full-scale target for air-to-air weapons system evaluation, development and testing at Tyndall Air Force Base, Fla., and Holloman AFB, N.M.

http://www.af.mil/information/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=13226

So, it seems it could be used to evaluate potency of Syrian anti-air defenses, the fact Turkey operates F-4s could provide for plausible deniability. Or maybe it is what it is, let's see if they find pilots.

smb12321's picture

I wondered how long it would be before Turkey became the bad guy. For a while posters were having wet dreams due toTurkey's fight with Israel. {And when do we begin hearing that it's actually Israel's fault?) this shows the ideological nature of opinion over facts. Syria's regime runs a Soviet style economy and secret police. It is is slaughtering its citizens so that a religious minority can keep in power.

How these thugs morphed into the good guys on ZH is a mystery.

DanDaley's picture

"...F4 ducked under radar (less then 1000 feet) ...was able to lock on and shoot the craft down approximately 1km off the Syrian coast. Due to the inertia and velocity of the phantom the aircraft splashed down about 13km off the coast..."

Really?  Shot down at 1,000 feet and then coasts another 10 miles?  That phantom had one hell of a glide ratio.

MSimon's picture

Central Planning? Well it is lucky that the Russians don't play that game. Which is why their economy is strong.

 

Demand for gold - up. Good for Russia.

 

Demand for oil - down - bad for Russia.

 

Poland is beginning to frack the Russians. Bad for Russsian Nat. Gas.

 

But yeah. The Russian economy is strong and the stats they let out are good as gold. Better. Would Putin lie to you?

crawldaddy's picture

please. all western societies are extrmely vulnerable. What happens if we get into a shooting skirmish with Russia and suddenly the whole east coast grid goes down.. via a russian hack.  You dont think that would be game over?  you dont think they have their own vwersion of flame?

Tech has made all nations for the most part very vulnerable. and as far as our banking sector, you relly think it is healthy? really?  my god, you new here?

sablya's picture

Conficker could easily shut down the entire internet.  It currently controls on the order of 2.5 million PCs worldwide.  It is unclear who controls it but it is a time bomb waiting to be activated at the proper moment. 

As an additional fact, when Russian launched its attack on Georgia in 2008, they took down communication lines and the internet within Georgia. They know what they are doing.

Marginal Call's picture

It's not hard to take down their internet.  An old lady and garden tools can get it done. 

 

http://internet.ezinemark.com/georgian-granny-shuts-down-the-internet-17bf9c5e622.html

 

 

afton's picture

...hey dude, nothing personal, but there is no "internet" and as long as we have AC/DC, etc. "it" aint going "down"...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interface_Message_Processor

...but you probbly knew that already and were just being humerous...

BorisTheBlade's picture

Yo, just don't forget IP addresses of your favourite websites. When DNS root nameservers go down for some weird reason, it could come handy. Entire internet doesn't need to go down, just key elements of its infrastructure.

Jack Burton's picture

Quite true sablya. The Russian education system and culture is very tuned into the type of brain power needed for first class computer programing.

Russia lost much of this talent to the west in the 2000's, but now in the 2010's more talent is paid to stay at home. Especially the Russian security services have a lot of petro money to pay for top Russian computer talent.

The USA is overconfident in EVERY way!  Why? Because look at the record, we have been taking down 3rd rate powers since the end of Vietnam. Russia and China are NOT third rate.

A US airstrike flying into a zone defended with Russian S-300 and S-400 along with their short range defensive missiles would PROVE this in spectacular style. Believe it!

MSimon's picture

Russia and China are NOT third rate.

 

Based on the Stats they put out? German reunification? Control of the Eastern block?The decline of the Russian Navy to roughly Zero (esp nuke subs) and coastal Navy status by 2020?

 

And of course we have China - which depends on robust economic growth for stability. A very strong country. On paper. You buying paper? I suppose if you can get a good price on tonnage.

phyuckyiu's picture

Based on the corpse of a plane shot down within a half mile flying at Mach 2 or higher. Or perhaps you need many more NATO corpses before your America #1 head explodes. Looks like you will get your wish.

destraht's picture

Does any of that stuff really matter for them?  It seems to me that they decided that they couldn't do most of that so they went all into missile development.  I'm not 100% certain that top of the line Russian missiles can drown top of the line US Navy ships but I'd wager that they could.

John Law Lives's picture

"What happens if we get into a shooting skirmish with Russia and suddenly the whole east coast grid goes down.. via a russian hack."

Why don't you tell this board what you think will happen?  Martial law?  A coup?  Food riots in the street?  Zombie apocalypse?

 

"You dont think that would be game over?"

Absofuckinglutely not!  Study history.  America survived a civil war, numerous regional and foreign wars, recessions, a great depression, the election of Jimmy Carter and G.W. Bush and Obumble to POTUS etc.  A computer virus is not going to be the end of America.

 

"you dont think they have their own version of flame?"

Maybe they do.  See response above.

crawldaddy's picture

no electricity ended New Orleans in 3 days time, and that was with a functioning country surrounding it.

You are fucking clueless.

Back in the earlier days people knew how to live without electricity, now we dont. Most foods stores have food for 3 days.. Our entire society is based on electricity. Not ONE thing will work without it.

You are....

John Law Lives's picture

"no electricity ended New Orleans in 3 days time, and that was with a functioning country surrounding it."

That's funny.  New Orleans still seems to exist.  The loss of human life that took place in New Orleans might have been largely mitigated if more of the inhabitants had enough COMMON FUCKING SENSE to leave the city before the storm struck.  For those who didn't own a car or were not highly mobile, they had opportunity to leave if they wanted help doing so.  It is not as if Hurricane Katrina didn't announce its coming presence in advance.  Ever heard of D-O-P-P-L-E-R  R-A-D-A-R?

On the subject of natural disasters, did Japan cease to exist after the earthquake / tsunami / widespread radioactive contamination / widespread loss of electric power.  No?  Gee, I don't remember hearing much about widespread looting or chaos or crime sprees or a zombie apocalypse.  The magnitude of their disaster was far worse that Katrina.

 

"You are fucking clueless."

You are full of shit.  Meredith Whitney is fucking clueless.  In fact, she made the stupidest financial prediction I can recall.

 

"Our entire society is based on electricity. Not ONE thing will work without it."

See comments above re. Japan.

 

"You are...."

I would assign some weight to your comments if you actually had anything intelligent to say on the subject.

my puppy for prez's picture

Unlike a hurricane, nuclear "storms" don't seem to accompanied by a three day warning to get out of dodge.  

BIG difference!!!

John Law Lives's picture

"...nuclear "storms" don't seem to accompanied by a three day warning to get out of dodge."

 What, praytell, do you suppose will be the source of a nuclear "storm"?  Russia?  China?  Bill Ayers?  The Unabomber?

my puppy for prez's picture

Most likely your insoucient, hubris-filled body exploding when challenged by another commenter.  LOL!

John Law Lives's picture

Flattery will get you nowhere, comrade.  LOL!

chistletoe's picture

Actually, there are quite a few of us americans who know how to do quite a lot without electricity.

 

Isn't it so sad that we all read Zero Hedge and aren't very interested in helping this government out of a jam it got itself into?

smb12321's picture

You don't get it. These clowns are actively praying for the. Downfall of the nation. They foam at the mouth and get so excited writing about possible disasters to the nation. To them, a successful solution to our problems is absolutely terrifying.

John Law Lives's picture

There are indeed some of that type here.

Western's picture

"Isn't it so sad that we all read Zero Hedge and aren't very interested in helping this government out of a jam it got itself into?"

 

What a stupid thing to say.

crawldaddy's picture

umm.. if the eastern grid was fried, damn right you would see food riots and the implementation of martial law.

John Law Lives's picture

Who do you suppose would "fry the eastern grid"?  Russia?  Russia can't even maintain its own population.  Russia should be more  concerned about China's population expansion and its growing desire for regional resources.  China?  Why would China aggressively strike out at its largest customer on Earth and deal severe economic hardship to it? How will China employ its own citizens if they come to blows with their largest customer and the demand for the goods they manufacture suddenly plummets?  China would have its own problems to deal with if their unemployment rate exploded.  Have you also forgotten how many US Treasuries China owns?  Do you think they want to ever be PAID the interest and principal due them?  Please elaborate in detail why China or Russia would attack the US and deal it severe economic hardship at this time...

P.S. Give some thought to your replies and lay off the puerile insults.  No reasonable person is impressed with ad hominem attacks.

mick_richfield's picture

OK, here's what I would advocate if I were a young general in Sovietski Soyuz and I wanted to fight and win a war.

1. Launch a 15 kiloton nuke on a EMP trajectory from a cargo vessel  twenty miles off the US east coast, knocking out power in a 200 mile radius, and destroying many of the large, effectively irreplacable EHV transformers.  (And most of the other transformers.)

2. Make sure all intel points to Iran.

3. Tell the Iranians you will protect them, and that's why you gave them all the fancy anti-ship missiles.

4. Tell the US Fifth Fleet  "Iran is all yours, nuke the bastards for all we care.  We have disabled the antiship missiles with secret broadcast codes."

5. Don't disable the missiles.  See what happens.  Either way is good.

6. Offer humanitarian aid to US.

7. Wait for the US east coast spent fuel ponds to start boiling.   Or maybe send in some guys to blow holes in them.  Some 'Iranian' guys.

8. Wait for US fleets & bases to retreat, as US economy collapses.

9. Have Putin walk into Merkel's office, put feet up on desk, and say, (in thick Russian accent) "Pretty lady.  Now you are working for me."

Spastica Rex's picture

Write the novel; I'm willing to pre-order.

mick_richfield's picture

You like that scene with Putin & Merkel?  You want it steamy?

Or maybe we could have like a European ending and an American ending?  The European ending is the one I wrote ^^^^.  

In the American ending, we see:

Putin: They think I conquer world for money, for power.  But they are fools.

Merkel:  What... what are you saying, Vlad ?

Putin:  I conquer world -- for you.  Only for you, my Angelochka.

( music )

John Law Lives's picture

"OK, here's what I would advocate if I were a young general in Sovietski Soyuz and I wanted to fight and win a war."

Okay, Komrade Richfield.  You get the nomination for "scary delusional" post of the day...  

mick_richfield's picture

 

 Give some thought to your replies and lay off the puerile insults

mick_richfield's picture

And that's Tovarishch General Richfield to you, chernozhopy.