Guest Post: The Economy Is On The Ropes And Going Down

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Chris Martenson

The Economy Is on The Ropes And Going Down

The risk faced by those who are analyzing macro trends is sounding like a broken record. For those younger readers who have no idea what that means, imagine an MP3 song that will stick on and endlessly repeat a random segment of the song you are listening to until you give your device a sharp knock on the side. That's what a broken record sounded like.

The world economy is on the ropes and it won't ever recover. At least not to anything resembling its recent past. Neither the gleeful housing bubble nor the free-flowing credit that enabled that side bubble to emerge will return. The resources simply do not exist to repeat that final orgy of consumption. A new reality is upon us and - while fortunately more and more people are choosing to face our predicament rather than pretend the current risks and challenges do not really exist - the absolute numbers are still small and for the most part don't inlcude any of our political leaders.

The macro trends of worsening public and private debt loads, a looming and unaddressed Peak Oil threat, exponentially increasing global population, resource depletion, and an all-too-human tendency to use the money printing machine to deal with tough economic problems all remain pointed firmly towards an uncomfortable conclusion: There's a future of less in store for most people.

Our best hope is for a negotiated decline to lower levels of economic activity that allow us to gracefully adjust our expectations to a new and lower level consumption that offers an even more enjoyable and purpose filled existence. Our worst fear is that a stubborn insistence on business as usual by our leadership leads to a future shaped by disaster rather than design.

The Fundamental Issue is this: you can't solve a problem rooted in too much debt with more debt. It just doesn't pencil out.

"Here we go again…solving a debt problem with more debt has not solved the underlying problem. ...Can the US continue to depreciate the world's base currency?" 

    ~ Goldman strategist Alan Brazil     (Source)

Yet we now see that both Europe and the US are busily conceding to banker demands and coming up with all manner of fancy schemes to hide the fact that what is happening is simply that old debt is being replaced with new debt. 

Consider the confusing news about the European EFSF, the so-called rescue facility for the Eurozone, which is currently conceived to use leverage (to solve a debt problem!) and is thought to look something like this:

(Source) 

We could analyze the details of that flowchart and opine on the structure, but that really won't aid anything. Additional complexity and Jell-o redistribution will not change the basic fact that the debts simply cannot be paid back under current terms or out of any imaginable future economic growth.

As far as I can tell the complexity serves one main purpose and that is to baffle enough of the populace for long enough to allow a significant transfer of public wealth to occur in broad daylight into private pockets.  In this regard Europe and the US seem to be identical.

A Bad Reaction

On September 21, 2011 the Fed disappointed the world equity and commodity markets by announcing Operation Twist, nothing more than monetary Jell-o being moved from one side of the plate to another, instead of more QE stimulus (which would be additional Jell-o in this metaphor).

The reaction was swift and negative. 

Beginning with stocks, we see that a couple of severe down days (the red bars in the green circle) ensued following the operation twist announcement. 

 

We also note that the S&P 500 is down year to date (YTD, blue dotted line) and that it is bouncing between the 1120 and 1220 marks (purple lines) with a lot of volatility but not much direction. The simplest explanation for this is that tensions exists between what the fundamental data is telling us about the state of the global economy (not good, more below) and the hope that more central bank money will soon be flooding the world.

As always, this is not a good sign and any time you read the word "investors" being used in an article about who is driving these price movements I invite you to replace that word with "speculators" as that's what we all are now; speculating wildly about when and how much thin-air money will next be injected by one central bank or another.

Gold had particularly tough going after the Twist announcement getting clobbered for ~$100 on a couple of days (green circle) following the twist announcement:

These price drops had nothing to do with an improved outlook on the viability of the world's fiat money systems or a reduction in overall systemic risk. Neither were appreciably altered by the Fed decision although systemic risk was probably elevated.   Without the Fed absorbing additional existing debt the entire system is at greater risk of slipping into a deflationary spiral that could get out of control.

If that happens, you want to be sure to have gold, in hand.

Silver was especially slammed, and was the undisputed loser of the entire commodity complex losing as much as 25% in a single session (before recovering):

I have always held that the risk for silver in this current rout would be that it behaves more like an industrial metal than a monetary asset and therefore could slip in price regardless of systemic stress. For a while there throughout July and August I began to think that silver was displaying some money-like qualities but the recent slam dispelled those thoughts.

I continue to think that this rout is not yet over and am waiting better prices for silver before I remove some of my dry powder and accumulate some more.

The 'off note' in this story is the price of oil: 

Until and unless oil, the main lubricant of commerce and a feed-in to the price of everything, slips and plummets a long way from here, I remain bullish on commodities in general. The macro story for oil is simply that a marginal new barrel of oil costs at least $70 in today's world and quite a bit more in some cases. 

If oil falls below that $70-$80 level then you can forget about new supply coming on line. In many respects we are living in an 'oil shadow' created by the plunge in oil to $38 in 2009 which delayed a large number of oil development projects that would otherwise be yielding supply today.

Should oil fall below the marginal cost again here in 2011 or 2012 then we'll have another oil shadow to contend with a few years down the line.

Of course I should point out here that the above chart is for US oil only (WTIC) and that the world price for oil is roughly $20 higher as indicated by the price of Brent crude at $104/bbl.

Slip Sliding Away

Presently, the global economy is not doing all that well. There are troubling signs from Japan, the US Europe and now China that the economy is stalling out and in serious danger of slipping back into recession. If that happens, all of the debt rescue plans will both have additional headwinds with which to contend and new debt implosions to rescue. 

Any analysis of the global economy has to begin with Dr. Copper, the most trusted source for an accurate economic diagnosis. Used in an enormous variety of commercial applications from houses to cars to electronics to electricity cables, copper prices usually provide a useful early read on the direction of the economy.

That tale is one of weakness:

Copper prices are now back to where they were in 2008, although still considerably up off the lows of late 2008 and early 2009, and are in negative territory YTD by more than 20%.

Consistent with the weakness in copper prices are recent reports of Chinese manufacturing activity slipping into contraction:

China manufacturing data paint weak picture (Sept 22, 2011)

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — HSBC’s preliminary China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, or “flash” PMI, fell to a two-month low in September, indicating a broadening slowdown in the Chinese economy, with industrial output swinging from a modest expansion to a deterioration.

The weak data were a factor in the broad equities sell-off in Hong Kong Thursday.

The headline preliminary PMI for the month was 49.4, down from 49.9 in August, HSBC said in a statement Thursday.

The PMI’s output index fell to 49.2 in September, down from 50.2 in August and below the 50 level dividing expansion from contraction.

China is addicted to rapid rates of growth and its banking system is heavily exposed to a wildly over-priced real estate market, especially in their major urban centers. If the Chinese property bubble busts then expect major banking stress to follow suit.

Perhaps one nearby indicator is the health of the Hong Kong real estate market which is now entering a dangerous phase:

Hong Kong’s Tsang Sees Property ‘Soft Landing,’ Backs Peg (September 27, 2011)

(Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong Financial Secretary John Tsang predicted a “soft landing” for the real estate market and said the city will keep its currency peg to the U.S. dollar, blamed for helping drive home prices up about 70 percent.

 “The residential market has basically frozen as a result of the curbs and the global downturn,” said Alva To, head of consulting for North Asia at DTZ, a property broker. “Our surveyors are seeing almost a 60 percent drop in the number of valuation queries from banks compared with normal times.”

Hong Kong’s used home sales have slowed, with prices falling for the first time in seven months in July. That’s not a “very violent reaction,” Tsang said. Prices have jumped about 70 percent since the start of 2009. New loans approved fell 10.3 percent in August from a month ago.

A 70% jump in prices in two years is not a healthy sign; it is an indication of a bubble.    The basic trajectory is simple enough; falling sales then lead to falling prices. Once the dynamic is underway it will not stop until prices again reach affordability for the median household (at best) and may even badly overshoot to the downside (at worst).

More directly, Chinese real estate developers are encountering a slump in both sales and prices:

China Developers Face More ‘Severe’ Credit Outlook, S&P Says

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese developers face an “increasingly severe” credit outlook, which may force them to cut prices and turn to costlier funding sources as sales weaken, Standard & Poor’s said.

A 30 percent decline in sales may leave many developers facing a liquidity squeeze, S&P said after conducting stress tests of the nation’s real estate companies. Most developers would be able to “absorb” a 10 percent sales drop next year, the credit rating company said.

“The worst isn’t over for China’s real estate developers,” S&P analysts led by Frank Lu wrote in a report today. “Developers are bracing themselves for slower sales and lower property prices ahead.”

Fewer than half of the 70 cities monitored by the government in August posted month-on-month gains in home prices for the first time, according to Samsung Securities Co.

What will happen to Chinese lending to the US and Europe if global trade slumps and their banking system begins to experience severe stress as a consequence of their own real estate bubble popping? Probably nothing good. That's why we have concerns that the enormous bubble in US Treasuries may be exposed as early as next year (2012).

Consistent with the rumblings from Dr. Copper are the reported slumps in global trade recently hitting the wires:

German Exports Unexpectedly Fell in July (Sep 8, 2011)

German exports unexpectedly declined for a second month in July, underscoring signs Europe’s largest economy is losing momentum as the global recovery falters.

Exports, adjusted for work days and seasonal changes, fell 1.8 percent from June, when they dropped 1.2 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. 

German growth is slowing as Europe’s debt crisis prompts governments from Spain to Ireland to cut spending, sapping export demand. Factory orders from abroad dropped in July and executives and investors grew more pessimistic last month. Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW), the world’s biggest maker of luxury cars, said on Sept. 1 that U.S. sales dropped in August.

Japan exports disappoint, could weaken further (Sept 20, 2011)

TOKYO, Sep. 20, 2011 (Reuters) — Japan's exports rose in the year to August at less than half the pace expected as a global economic slowdown, a strong currency and Europe's sovereign debt crisis put Japan's own recovery increasingly in doubt.

"The impact of a slowing in the global economy is starting to become visible in Japan's export figures," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

"In the coming months exports may go back to posting year-on-year declines, meaning the economy will have no sufficient support factor unless the government quickly implements reconstruction spending."

[US] Economic indicators predict continued weak growth (Sept 22, 2011)

[F]actory orders, unemployment benefit applications and hours worked were among six measures that weakened in August.

Existing home sales up but price outlook grim (Sept 21, 2011)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Existing home sales rose in August to their highest in five months as lower prices and rock-bottom interest rates drew more buyers into a still moribund market.

Sales climbed more than expected, up 7.7 percent from the previous month to an annual rate of 5.03 million units, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. The median price was 5.1 percent lower than a year earlier.

Existing home sales have trended lower in 2011 and prices are still weakening. One factor keeping prices low is the high rate of "distressed sales" which include those forced by foreclosures.

Distressed sales accounted for 31 percent of August transactions, up from 29 percent a month earlier.

Comment: Note that falling prices are not a good sign here. Also the 7.7% bump in sales, assuming we believe the NAR data (always worth taking it with a grain of salt), still leaves us well off the peak of several years back and is being driven in large measure by distressed sales.

Let's contrast the distressed bargain activity with new home sales, also for August, to see if a different picture emerges:

New home sales fell in August for 4th month (Sept 26, 2011)

Sales of new U.S. homes fell to a six-month low in August.

The fourth straight monthly decline during the peak buying season suggests the housing market is years away from a recovery.

The Commerce Department said Monday that new-home sales fell 2.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 295,000. That's less than half the roughly 700,000 that economists say must be sold to sustain a healthy housing market.

New-homes sales are on pace for the worst year since the government began keeping records a half century ago.

New home sales are on a pace for the worst year since records began fifty years ago? That statistic alone should tell you exactly where we are in this so-called recovery. Absolutely nowhere.  The decline in new home sales wipes out the warm glow from the increase in existing home sales.

Summary: Part I

The world that Europe, the US and Japan are desperately trying to sustain is no longer possible in a world of too much debt and too expensive energy. The plethora of sliding data noted above are classic warning signs one would expect to see from a global economy in systemic decline.

We are now down to the wire. Over the next few months and years, our story of credit growth - four decades in the making - will continue to unwind. Those who place their faith in the authorities to first understand the true nature of the predicament and second to implement restorative policies are at tremendous risk of personal and/or financial losses.

In Part II of this report: Understanding What Happens Next, we discuss important decoupling trends, what steps global leaders will be forced to take later this year to deal with thism, why these steps won't work, and what prudent individuals should be doing now to protect themselves and their wealth.

Click here to access Part II of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
nyse's picture

We're gonna need some smelling salts soon...

JumpinJonnyK's picture

I think we are going to need gold and silver not salts.  Premiums and shipping times are rising on silver in the US again http://www.goldshark.com/products/silver-coins/silver-coins-rounds/american-silver-eagle-coins.html.  Glad I took action in 2007 and bought a good bit of silver and lead!

SheepDog-One's picture

Gold and silver metal is ok....copper jacketed lead metals gets you out of severe pinches more surely though.

Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Appropriate image inserted in that flowchart -- of a Lancaster "Dam Buster."

Purely coincidence, no doubt.

optimator's picture

I read it as a standard Lanc, Battle of Britain Memorial flight,  that carried incendiary conflagration starters. Think firestorm.

 

Pure Evil's picture

Is it time for World War III already?

Estrella's picture

Yeah but... those guys got shot up very badly. I think the loss rate was over 75%. A bold plan, but it failed. Hmmm...

Silver Dreamer's picture

We're also going to need a lot of lime and trash bags.

HardlyZero's picture

Ron Paul might be on the correct side of this equation.  I think his smaller is better approach may work out just fine.  I don't have any qualms about his integrity or judgement.

Maybe.

 

Excellent charts and points.  My opinion is that fiat printing is not "capital" at all...its just paper which is not really capital.  Capital is something tangible...that you can touch and feel...that is owned and not borrowed.

The problem is real capital is hard to come by these days...and the economy is based on fiat capital which is 10000x the size of the real capital.  What you gonna do ?

Deadpool's picture

maybe Rue Paul...nobody can fix this multi generational (since 1913 to be exact) problem. By the time the fool that gets sworn in on that freezing January 2013 day the paper currency the world will be floating on will drown everything. The sooner we realize the F'ed killed us the sooner we can be reborn.

SheepDog-One's picture

Rue Paul! Now thats funny!

baby_BLYTHE's picture

that line comes from the Zionist radio talk jock Mark Levin. There are numerous youtube videos of Levin blasting Ron Paul over his views on Foreign Policy. Levin loves war claiming, if in charge, he would double the size of our already oversized military.

go to the :48 second mark

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hv1_yMQtS0

We are not going to let them get away with their tricks this time around!

BigJim's picture

Mark Levin - what an unpleasant man. If he's a semite, I'm not surprised he finds many people are anti-semitic.

MSimon's picture

Economic distress often brings large wars. Ron Paul may not be as smart as he thinks he is.

 

BTW LOVE him on domestic policy!!!!!!!!

HardlyZero's picture

We just have to figure out how to downsize this megalith, this megadeath.

Listen to Peter Gabriel song from late 70's "DIY"...keep it small....and Do it Yourself.

We have to "come together" and DIY and Keep it Small.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea thats the problem, which multi billionaires are going to step forward to be 'downsized'? None of em! Meanwhile the rest of the public is bankrupt, so we all know the answer is huge haircuts must be taken but there arent any volunteers and wont be any tomorrow either...so what to do....oh I remember how they always 'solve' this-

World War.

Deadpool's picture

Russia did it, Argentina did it, Iceland did it. All it takes is the political will to rip the band aide off quickly and let the banks that made bad loans and the lenders that lent foolishly take hits. Until the dead wood is flushed out the economy can't heal and begin to grow again. Look at New Zealand post Christchurch earthquake...growing again nicely, thank you very much. Take the pain, heal, grow. What US and Europe are doing is providing the heroin addict more heroin. Keeps the body alive, but doesn't cure the addict. The ever expanding debts that banks need to grow (and governments need to economically enslave) is over. Bring on the hard times so the good times can come sooner. Gov't intervention is the problem...

r101958's picture

....however, we need to realize that the 'growth' or 'recovery' will be completely different from what we have known in the past.

fonestar's picture

The problem is with these bubbles is that population levels are tied to them as well.  Yes, smaller is better and that also spells a die-off just like rabbits in a ten year cycle.

falak pema's picture

small is beautiful.....plus paradigm change...frugal living...and innovation.

Josh Randall's picture

I didn't see Chewco on that flow chart, now I'm really concerned

NEOSERF's picture

Great article...important to keep the eye on the ball and not get wrapped up in the rumors, headlines and general puffery going on in the media...this is going down, whether this week, next or early next year...the data says it has to.

giocatoli's picture

This article is so negative.  Let's have something a little more 'glass half full' shall we?  I saw a unicorn this morning, for example.  And it gave me a ride to the end of the rainbow...

B9K9's picture

Boy, everyone is embracing sarcasm these days - I guess it's the new black.

As to the main article, Chris, the system was always headed for collapse as long as humanity did/could not discover & develop an alternative to oil. If compound principle+interest is growing @ 2-3% per annum, it requires GDP to grow at the same relative rate simply to stay even. Since GDP correlates exactly 1:1 with oil consumption, that means oil utilization must grow @ 2-3% to avoid a deflationary collapse.

Hubbert nailed it - once the USA passed peak domestic production in the 70s, the transition to a credit financed consumer economy in the 80s was foreordained.  I mean, it's all we had; that, and a global military operation in which to enforce the dollar standard. Otherwise the boomers would have had to eat the shit sandwich that is now on everyone's plate.

Denninger keeps talking about how our political 'leaders' need to conduct "an adult conversation" with the body politic. This little talk should have taken place 30 years ago - now it way, way too late. Of course, the bankers who not only saw this occurring, but actually engineered the system to take advantage of the new paradigm have made off like bandits.

Jesus H. Christ, but wasn't it a sweet ride while it lasted?

SheepDog-One's picture

'Satire is the peoples last weapon'

LFMayor's picture

I thought it was sticks and rocks.

hidingfromhelis's picture

No, those will be the next weapons.

oldman's picture

The glass is half empty of what you want and half full of what you don't want to read or hear about; that is just how things are.

Maybe what we want does not exist and the glass is full of what 'is'. Who can say? And what are we going to DO about it, anyway.

I am tired of reading on ZH fantasies about fantasy as we post every unfounded rumor that shows its head, but this is all the news there is

Yeah, me too: what I want does not exist                  om

Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

Hey oldman! (I'm giving you the Do-Nothing Gang secret handshake.)

Y'know, I got to the point where I didn't want anything. Nothing. It was very boring. It was the result of my trip to transcendentalism. You know, eliminate all desire until you disappear into nothingness. Sheesh, what a goal! Didn't become transcendent, that's for sure, but I was able to disconnect from the material world for a while. But the raw, messy spectacle of it was irresistible, so here I am at ZH with a front row seat at the ongoing carnival of tragi-comic human self-destruction. My righteous fury has almost completely abated, since I've come to terms with the reality that there's fuck-all I can do to change any of it. The apparently cataclysmic trajectory we're on frequently brings moments of despair, but bemused resignation generally takes its place. I'm thoroughly convinced that none of it matters a whit, and as you said, it's all fantasies on top of fantasies, a dream. The world as it's presented to us these days is an aberration, an abomination, nearly devoid of humanity in the macro. All we can do is dream our own dream and make sure it's a sweet one and always keep a song in our hearts. And try to avoid any activity at all if possible.;o)

oldman's picture

SnL,

We are in just about the same place.

This stuff is addictive and also helpful to an oldman's mental health if I just do not get too attached to it. The conditioned self, however, loves to see how important it is and measure what others think and play games----I go to the forest as often as I can as my remedy---but, it is a trap.

Knowing you are trapping your 'self' is not the same as the feeling of 'being trapped' was----and I laugh at this oldman all of the time.

Living in a cartoon is the best place i've ever lived     om

Going Loco's picture

A delectable example of resource depletion was reported on BBC this week. Helium may be a common element but it's hard to get (damned hard to make), stocks are running low, and it's desperately needed for MRA scanners and other cool things. What are we doing with it? 16% of consumption last year went up into the atmosphere in kids' party balloons and is presently making its slow but inexorable way out of our atmosphere and out into space.

Having said that, and much as I admire him, I don't agree with Chris Martenson's analysis of OT2. I prefer the analysis which was posted here, possibly the most brilliant post I have ever seen on this board:- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/panic-and-perspective-wall-street-art-cash...

papaswamp's picture

Yea Lefty is freaking brilliant. Like the TD's he is one of those people that completely sees the whole game as opposed to just seeing the part immediately in front. It is going to be a crazy ride....what is really nuts is it seems that things really are going to unravel in 2012. I'm not a believer in the craziness of the ancient predictions....but they may end up being damn close to when this game of musical chairs is over and the people have no place to sit.

Joe Shmoe's picture

I think a lot of people agree with downsizing the government.  It's just that the timing is all wrong.  Try to radically downsize now and you could be sure the economy would collapse.  That's what's so annoying about policy right now.  No one had the balls (or votes) to do enough of any particular policy.  We didn't go down a Keynesiain pathway, we went halfway down that path.  So it didn't work and now we can't get off the path.  Austerity measures in a fragile economy may make the Tea Partiers sound macho, but it's totaly suicidal policy.  We're fucked between a rock and a hard place.  We should never have done the TBTF bailouts.  The aftermath of letting C and BAC, etc. fail would have been super painful.  But we'd be working htrough it by now.  We are in the land of classic Econ soundbites: "moral hazard," "pushing on a string."    

SheepDog-One's picture

Well 1 thing is for damn sure, the government does NOT agree with downsizing the government so get ready for war if thats what you want to make happen.

Sgt.Sausage's picture

==> Try to radically downsize now and you could be sure the economy would collapse.

It's going to collapse, anyway.

Might as well kill two birds and knock out the bloated, useless bullshit at the same time.

 

 

Joe Shmoe's picture

Define collapse... what you really think is going to happen, in real life and not in some rural trailer park fantasy world where you get to save the world by shooting the bad guys.

PaperBugsBurn's picture

Yaaaaaaaay!!!!

Going down, bitchez!!!

Get the bankstasssssss!!!!!

The zionista drug traffickers and juden fetzen pushers along with their illuminati brethren!

monopoly's picture

A quiet day so far, nothing much going on. FCX almost 50% off its high. The best copper producer out there. China slowing down, we all know the rest and interest rates creeping up ever so slowly.

Quiet before the storm?

It always amazes me that some would rather buy the dollar then an ounce of gold or silver. But, that is why they call them "markets". Always two sides.

gjp's picture

None of this is any problem.  AMZN is releasing a new tablet, the world is saved!

SheepDog-One's picture

Yet equity Hindu cows are looking on at the Western World economic devastation and calmly chewing their cud as if theres no danger at all today, tomorrow, or ever.

fdisk's picture

Cheerleaders forgot to compare SPX and Gold/Silver..
should I say correlation? You better pray for Market recovery
or get your toaster ready for Gold/Silver sandwiches. :)))

SheepDog-One's picture

'Market recovery' in what? Take the lowest index, we're still only 15% below ALL TIME highs.

fdisk's picture

You wanna see $4 Silver? Don't tell me those who hold 10k oz would be happy to see 400k$ turn into 40k..

I guess, you just forgot, that Silver and Gold belongs market as well named - Commodity Market

SheepDog-One's picture

See, your mistake is saying '$4 dollar silver'...what its priced at in dollars is irrelevant. The equation is reversed. 

Going Loco's picture

Sheepdog - if the dollar price of silver is irrelevant I guess you won't mind buying my little stash for USD$10,000 an ounce, today? Not in 2 years' time. Today.

Silver Dreamer's picture

Most people I know are not buying PM's to make US Dollars.  You're missing the entire point.  When all you have is fiat currency and fiat currency backed assets but are still broke because they are worthless, you might begin to understand.  When you're starving because your fiat currency buys nothing, you might begin to understand.  I wouldn't bet any money (or PMs) on it however.

Prometheus418's picture

That's a sad strawman.

No one in their right mind pays more for anything when they do not have to.  It has nothing to do with how a person respects the dollar or not- is is a matter of common sense.

If we are at peak oil, as some claim, and there is a say coming when food is precious and gasoline is non-existant, there is no reason why I would trade you a truck for an ear of corn right now, whether I knew that day was coming or not.  Everything has it's time and place.

Rhodin's picture

 Dollar price of silver is irrelevant today, only if you are the Fed, or Fed crony bank, and have no cost dollars.  It MAY eventually be true for all of us, IF wages, goods, bills, and taxes can be paid in silver and/or if dollars are worthless.

Today i watched silver price drop $2, then bought a small stack.  I then watched it drop another $ in an hour.  The price matters to me because i would have more silver now if it was lower when i bought. 

I will keep stacking  if it goes to $4 or $4k, but that number will impact how much i can stack.

 

 

monopoly's picture

Not sure how you figured that. Spoos at 1,530 once, now 1,170. More like 25% to me. Am I missing something?