Guest Post: To EFSF Or Not To EFSF - A Franco-German Drama

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Alexander Gloy of Lighthouse Investment Management

To EFSF Or Not To EFSF - A Franco-German Drama

(with simultaneous translation from Euro-lingo into plain English)

  • 4:05: “Direct help for bank recapitalization from EFSF is not at all doable” – German Economy Minister (Translation: “Frogs, I thought we told you already, your plan doesn’t fly”)
  • 6:00: “It is important to us that all banks are equipped for all
    eventualities and must go to market first for capital” – German Finance
    Minister (Translation: “May be they’ll understand if I say it – nobody seems to take Roesler serious”)
  • 6:19: “There is no doubt on the soundness of French banks” – French government (Translation: “Hopefully the dim-wits at Agence France-Presse will print my statement without embarrassing typos”)
  • 6:20: “Private capital must have priority, but French state is ready
    to respond to banks’ capital needs is necessary” – French government (Translation: “Nobody will figure out that this does not match what I said one minute ago”)
  • 6:20: France wants collective, European response to the recapitalization of European banks – French government (Translation: “Let’s see if the Germans respond if I say this”)
  • 6:31: France won’t use the EFSF to recapitalize banks – French government (Translation: “Okay okay, no need to scream like that on the phone”)

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Deadpool's picture

Charlie don't surf and Frogs don't bank...they strike.

covert's picture

Germany will eventually fail but, not soon.


arizona11912's picture

There should be a line for Euro bonds in there...

bigdumbnugly's picture

if they could only find a coin left to flip...

Let them all fail's picture

I personally prefer the South Park bailout method....though rather than chickens they could just finally prosecute the bankers for their illegal activities and sentence them to death by bailout wheel.

oogs66's picture

it is amazing that stocks are so complacent

Raynja's picture

Govt official opens mouth, es +1, makes sound, es +1, algos realize the sound formed a real word, es +1.
Govt official keeps mouth shut for an hour, es crashes as algos think they might not get more taxpayer money.

Ancona's picture

Stocks are complacent because 80% of all trades are directed from the very institutions that end up on the bottom of the ocean if the market crashes. Imagine what happens to teh prop desks if the DOW, S&P and Russell drop by 30 - 35%.

Complete fucking chaos and more than a few bank failures.

Segestan's picture

Just wait when those immigrants discover no free French lunch? That the socialist can't pay for dreams. France ain't seen nothing... yet!

Timmay's picture

If you "recapitalize" banks by making a massive bad loan, and the reason you need to recapitalize the banks is because of the bad loans you already made, you are DUMB.

UK debt marsh's picture

Cue "Merkel and Sarkozy to make statement later"

GolfHatesMe's picture

Allianz will save the day

LongSoupLine's picture

blah, blah, blah...another 3-handle ramp day on funny money "up-your-middle-class-ass" injection.  It's all the big plan to ramp, ramp, ramp then exit hard with "bonus intact" profits.  The crash will look brutal and wall street will laugh as we "crash" back to where we were prior to this bullsht pump job.  It's one giant global planned ponzi of fullretard magnitude.  It f'ing makes me puke!

kengland's picture

"It f'ing makes me puke!"


Agreed. I want to punch holes in the wall. It really speaks volumes for everyone you see around you. They just go about mastering what there favorite college football team is about to do while the con job-hustle just keeps rolling with SUPER POWER!

Is this not sureal? I remeber thinking in 09 that 950 was it on the snp. They can bullsheet their way through this for much longer than you and I and the rest can possibly imagine.

end da fed's picture

just go growl really loud in some zombie's face when your frustration gets to be too much. that's what i imagine doing. i dont think we can get arrested for doing that, right?

Lord Welligton's picture

That's about it really.

The French want their banks recapitalised by the EFSF (the Euro/German taxpayer).

And they are getting desperate.

As I have said previously if Greece goes "radio" before Sarkozy gets to plunder the German taxpayer it's game over for the French banks.

eurogold's picture

Yes...and let's hope it happens sooner rather than later!

Spitzer's picture

Are you sure about that ?

Am I the only one that is not convinced that Euro land will print ?

Not that it is bad for gold or anything....

schadenfreude's picture

Print ? With Stark and Weber gone and a Goldmanite Italian in the lead? Totally impossible

philipat's picture

Bottom line here is that Germany needs to make a decision whether to bail out the EUR or break it up. The slight inconvenience for them is that 80%+ of the German people don't want their taxes to be used to provide more bailouts to German and French banksters or the basket cases in Southern Europe.


I can't imagine why they would be so churlish?

dracos_ghost's picture

These guys need an intervention. Throwing every piece of shit on a teflon wall will not solve your problems.


"God grant me the serenity
to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference.

Barring that give me a friggin miracle to bail out this tangled mess of glolbalist banking crap."

end da fed's picture

that is the best prayer ive ever heard

The Axe's picture

The stcok market is up over 12%  in a week....that was one short bear   nuts

derek_vineyard's picture

Took my favorite reading material into my porcelian throne and when I returned the bear market in the US was over.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

well, the situ in europa was pretty tentative, there, after they insulted timmah

but with the swiss banksters' flanking support for the currency, the chairsatan has everything in hand

for a while...

the problem is that the world economy isn't growing fast enuf to service the debt and growing debt needs.  reality 101.  the ironic joke is that this 12% boner = "a green shoot in US employment & mfg" +  near-zero ROI elsewhere (e.g. w/ less 'risk')

now, many of these bridges would you like to order?

JenkinsLane's picture

"Earth to France, come in France...."

Byte Me's picture

I'm really tempted to make sure that the ECB have all the details of one of my current accounts -- just on the offchance that, in the current climate of breathtaking hubristic incompetence, they might accidentally credit me a few yards of local fiat.

Stranger things have happened.

Damn straight that it wouldn't stay as fiat for many minutes...

NotApplicable's picture

“There is no doubt on the soundness of French banks”

Well, I for one have no doubt about their soundness, or lack thereof.

kaiserhoff's picture

Why bother translating?

"Zer eez no hope for zee Froggie Banques."

eurogold's picture

If I were Angie, I would tell Sarkozy to go F#*k himself!

ArkansasAngie's picture

I'll be happy to.  Got an email address on him.

LawsofPhysics's picture

"Earnings" are due folks and the "profits" have to come from somewhere.  Everyone be sure to load up on equities, all is well.

unionbroker's picture

what is the end game for this market , who do they think they are going to sell to ? 

surf0766's picture

How many fools buy bad stocks everyday? The end game is to create a higher, super duper bank to bail everyone out. Until it needs a bailout. The the super, duper, game changer bank will bail them out.


It is all bullshit



unionbroker's picture

i don't know, how much are the earnings tied to the price of stocks . are all these companies making money in the market ? Why sell a product when you can use your treasury to play the market.

JenkinsLane's picture

I've thought of a solution! All Christian Noyer needs to do is click his heels three times whilst repeating over and over, "Our banks are fully capitalized, our banks are fully capitalized..."

Problem solved!

Cone of Uncertainty's picture

All I know is GOOG is going to knock it our of the fucking park tonight--fuck these frogs.

PulauHantu29's picture

Market forces ultimately win, don't they.

mynhair's picture

When it fails, the SINate Repubes will get the blame.

Belarus's picture

The despots have learned that all you need to do to ramp asset prices higher by the trillions in very short order, such as the last 6 trading days, is to whisper something that has nothing to do with fixing the root of the problem, but will surely paper over it for just a few weeks. The politicians certainly don't want to upset those one-percenterrs. 

walküre's picture

All I know is that I'm not accepting stock for my cattle. I'm reluctant to take any paper to be honest. But as long as I can buy feed with paper, I will take it. What's left gets converted to tangible assets. Suggest you do the same.

Oh and by the way, Germany is not going to pay. It will be the day that hell freezes over before Germany is sending money from German taxpayers into Greece.

The important votes that are being passed in Europe are to secure funding and liquidity for their own banks on "D" Day.

"D" Day is Default Day.


Ned Zeppelin's picture
  • 4:05: “I think the French should administer further oral pleasures to their banks in order to cause them to dramatically increase in size” – German Economy Minister (Translation: “You Frogs can blow me when you're done!”)
  • 6:19: “There is no doubt that my cranium is now fully encased within my colon” – French government (Translation: “[Do you really need one?]”)
  • Joebloinvestor's picture

    Wait till the Germans figure out that France is one of the biggest and corrupt of them all.

    ivars's picture

    I think that current irrational exuberance epxressed in buying stocks of EUR is like denial, Feast in the time of plaque. Greece will default, Eur move into inflationary recession, banks suffer, USA stok market down, confidence and wealth effect out of the window, rdeflationary recession q1 2012. Anyway, I think, this is the last time ( may be whole october or november) to get into USD cash, out of stocks. Not as good as at 12800, but 11500 is not bad either. And buy silver or whatever is related to it and can not be overtaxed or confiscated,or nationalized. Not gold, yet- silver will return 300% in 2012, while gold almost nothing. If the markets function still normally in 2012 ( recession, who knows) , the best bet is get fast profits and get them out before someone taxes them 100% or declares illegal.

    I have made also a correct short term ( 1 week) prediction about sharp increase in USD per EUR after October 5th, whose consequences I would like to expand upon. The area of correct short term ( 2 weeks ) prediction is encircled to make it visible in the long term graph.


    Old EUR USD 2011_2017_prediction_Oct_2011_in circle.png (82.18 KB) Viewed 1244 times

    So what I have predicted on October 5th is , that USD per EUR will go up from 1,325 to 1,40-1,425-1,45 till the end of the year 2011. We see the first week of this movement already (of course, it will not move up in straight line, with hiccups, the line is to thick, but the general trend is clear):

    USD_per_EUR Sept14_Oct_12_2011.png (22.42 KB) Viewed 1242 times

    Now, where is the logic? Eurozone debt crisis comes to its conclusion, Greece will default in November, that has negative impact on banks which has negative impact on stocks worldwide which has negative impact on business confidence and growth , leading to inflationary recession in Eurozone in q1 2012, and deflationary in the USA in q1 2012.

    Why would anyone now buy EURos or Stocks?

    I think here we have clear case of psychological denial of what pain is coming so soon, and irrational exuberance of short lived and temporary type impacting the investor behavior. If nothing can be done why not have some fun ( with irrational expectation that somehow things will turn out well).

    I think one name for such behavior is (coming from Russian): "Feast in Time of Plague". There must be English saying with similar message.

    Looking in the charts, what will happen next:

    Greece will default, and from January 2012 there are less and less USD per EUR. As USDx grows, and so does quite a few PM/commodity vs USD, EURozone after dismissing Greece and who else will get inflationary, and in recession. Stocks (DJIA) will fall sharply after this last hiccup, and USA will enter recession in q1 2012, deflationary, with increasing dollar index.

    1) For those with EUR, this period Oct-Dec 2011 may be the last one at least for 4-5 years either to buy USD or invest directly into PM, other commodities at good price levels given high USD per EUR ratio ( 1,38-1,45 is as high as it will go).
    2) For people with investment in stock indexes, especially in USD, this is the last time to get out into cash at decent levels ( DJIA 11600 is not as good as 12800 but its only 10% below post Lehman USA stock market peak);
    3) Once in USD cash, there is still time to buy Silver around 33 till April 2012;
    4) For gold , there will be another opportunity window in late January 2012 for about a month to buy it at 1580-1620 USD again.That corresponds with the next dip in USD per EUR in early 2012 to 1,325.