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Guest Post: Egypt Enters The Third Stage Of The Revolution, And No One Is Watching

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Bill F of NAR2012

Egypt Enters The Third Stage Of The Revolution, And No One Is Watching

The recent elections in Egypt now lead to a showdown between the two top vote getters on June 16/17.   The protagonists, Ahmed Shaiq (former PM for Mubarak and candidate of the military) vs. Mohammed Mursi (Muslim Brotherhood), pits two candidates most of the population really doesn’t want in the first place.   Kind of like Obama vs. Romney.   Where’s Ron Paul on the ballot, right?

The problem here is Egypt’s position on the timeline of revolution.    Egypt has gone through the 1st Stage of a government loosing its justification to govern, and now the 2nd Stage of a caretaker, or provisional government, is now coming to an end.   However, no accommodation has been created to correct the deficiencies that caused Egypt’s Spring Revolution, and that spells trouble.

Egypt is entering the 3rd Stage of Revolution, and its most violent.

Because now battle lines have been drawn over the dead carcass of a government that has failed.   The only thing that has changed is that it is a year later and the factions have become more polarized.

All ready, the 4th place candidate from the first round has protested the election as rigged, and there were a lot of irregularities on all sides.   But now followers of Mursi have pillaged and burned the Cairo election headquarters of Shaiq.   To think that the governing military junta, whose wealth is synonymous with the former Mubarak government they now run, are going to turn a blind eye if their man looses the election is unreasonable.

On the other hand, the Muslim Brotherhood is the majority in the Egyptian Congress, and to consider that they will accept the continued rule by the Mubarak/Military status quo is highly unlikely.   Especially, as the bankrupt condition of most of the country has not been addressed, which is what the revolution was all about, originally set off by the high price of food, due to the inflationary effects of the Federal Reserve Banks Quantitative Easing I.       

The point is, Egypt is about to go postal, joining Libya on its western border, Syria to the north, and Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen on the south and to the east.

The violence is expanding and will continue to do so.

With world markets focused on Europe, Greece, Spain (all the PIIGS), China, Iran, and the U.S., its still the unknown that reportedly keeps the worlds manipulators awake at night.   

I wonder how many of them think hard about Egypt at night?    That is a rhetorical question, because it’s just about zero, but I suspect that will be changing soon.

What is even more interesting as the wheels come off the Egyptian chariot, we have this same disparity in wealth and bankruptcy the world over everywhere.

Just as China’s politico/military rule is bankrupt saved only by its trading surpluses crafted from the pockets of Americans by a depressed Yuan, made possible by the enslavement of their population; the same holds true in America and Europe, where that same widening gap and creeping bankruptcy is represented not by the military, but by Wall Street.  The only difference between America, Europe, and the Chinese, is that the Chinese no longer question their enslavement, Europe is nearly placated, while  Americans (thank God), still retain the ability to rebel.   At least for now.

Beyond that, the condition is the same.

Egypt’s odds of slipping into the violence of the 3rd Stage of revolution within the next 30 days is over 90%.


Odds of the rest of the world following suit is over 50%.   Odds of the United States going over the high side is at 50%, and the world hinges upon what happens in the United States.

For if we remain on the road we are on, it is not a question of if, but of when.

Here is the situation in a nutshell.   The current governments of the world operate upon a tyranny based economic model, which is a model of eventual failure for two reasons.

First, because it requires the inefficiencies of coerced economic manipulation upon the general population by the faction that support the government to which the government owes its existence, and therefore must acquiesce.

Secondly, said faction consumes far more than it produces resulting in a spiraling deficiency of real wealth creation, which manifests itself by a growing fiscal gap between the wealthy faction elite and the masses.

The only alternative is a liberty based economic model, which is driven by its structured mechanization of governance that forces legislation and administration into deep and unhindered exposure to the nations citizens, through the Public Forum.

It is the transparency of the Public Forum that empowers the citizens to choose wisely and accurately those candidates placed before the electorate.   It is the definition of both liberty, and in its absence, tyranny.   For without this transparency the nation is rendered blind, elections become a rubber stamp, and the people no longer rule, but are ruled instead by the factions liberty is designed to replace.

It is only through this electoral transparency of the Public Forum that individual participants of the nation are permitted to conduct themselves in their own best interest.   It is only through this natural selection of self-interests, that collectively creates and provides the incentive to everyone to produce at maximum capacity, and is the only means by which to create surplus wealth for all.

America is, and always has been that pivot point upon which the survival of liberty has always depended and nothing has changed.   If America moves to liberty, so must the world.

However, if we Americans surrender to the factions that rule us all, we will have signed the death sentence of not only ourselves, but also the world.

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Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:29 | 2487470 Rahm
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Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:41 | 2487495 Manthong
Manthong's picture

At least there is some good news on the business front..


Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:02 | 2487527 t_kAyk
t_kAyk's picture

Bullish, of course. 

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 16:38 | 2487712 TheGardener
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"It is the transparency of the Public Forum that empowers the citizens to choose wisely and accurately those candidates placed before the electorate"

PhD from some private agency endorsed before admittance ?

Sounds rather like a wannabe chilling himself before taking cover deep inside the trunk...

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 16:59 | 2487750 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

For a real revolutionary ,according to Davila ,the true revolution is the next (best?) revolution. For this junior spy ,any our utterances
gets him employed with ZH credentials.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 10:22 | 2488940 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

You'd think it would be televised...

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:08 | 2489173 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

We watched it on Satellite for hours and days as the fighting went on. I think one of the Fox Reporters vanished, probably got raped down there..

Regular TV did not speak of the fighting then.

If I am not mistaken, Egypt is technically at war with Israel and will be even more so if this new Majority is put into power.

The more things change, the easier it is the same.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 22:17 | 2490602 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Wow, this sorta ties into my rough investment thesis for being bullish on the defense industries.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 21:46 | 2488160 Nassim
Nassim's picture

Why do Americans find it so difficult to spell and conjugate the verb "to lose"?

"To loosen" has quite a different meaning.


Sat, 06/02/2012 - 22:20 | 2488236 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

"Why do Americans find it so difficult to spell and conjugate the verb "to lose"?"

As we ponder this question and ask "Why?" five times to get closer to the root cause, we come up with the first answer:

1.  Department of (so-called) "Education" and their symbiotes the National "Education" Association.

2. ...




- Ned

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:10 | 2489177 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Our Education system in the USA is a money pit filled with shit.

No wonder our young People graduate unable to function on own. They need to be in a group to get anything done.

It enrages me to pay 100 dollars to the Schools, 9.00 for the Fire Protection, 6.50 for the Police and a miserly 4.00 for the streets along with 2 bucks for the Dog pound man.

And what do we get for our fine school district?

People who know enough to get the fuck out of here when they graduate and are free to do so, to save themselves.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 03:30 | 2488648 The Credible Hulk
The Credible Hulk's picture

Give him a break all ready.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:29 | 2487471 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

How many stages are there for a revolution ?

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:23 | 2487570 New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

Four (4) Stages to a Revolution   -  billf (Bill Fawell www.nar2012.com "New American Revolution: The Constitutional Overthrow of the United States Government")

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:51 | 2488239 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Who copied MAO, who copied...?

but the stages are not linear/monotonic progression; if the correlation of forces is disadvantageous, then it is advisable to revert to an earlier stage.

- Ned

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 17:01 | 2487755 The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

2.... One to hold the ladder and one to pull the...

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 23:03 | 2488334 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

No, no, youv'e got it all wrong.  It is one to hold the lightbulb and four to turn the ladder.  

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 13:35 | 2489354 HungrySeagull
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No no no...

It's a truck driver to deliver the electric powered lift, a trained operator to use it, plus a supervisor and a safety person.

Add in code enforcement plus the Additional Supervisors to make sure that the People are safe through out the entire process.

Throw in the Electric company pulling the Meter or disconnecting service drops for the work duration and street flaggers and you have a good old fashioned American throw the money at a simple problem to fix.

All of this will take approx half a day.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:31 | 2487476 Charles Wilson
Charles Wilson's picture

'N the women will suffer horrific atrocities.

I know!  Let's give 'em another Billion!  That'll learn 'em!



Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:51 | 2487627 Charles Wilson
Charles Wilson's picture

At this time, there are 5 negatives on my above post.  Why?

I realize I'm opening up to Snarkiness here but...

Is it the fact that I mentioned the terrorizing of women that does go on in Egypt?  The fact that I made fun of the absurdity of shoveling money to people who are in charge of terrorizing whoever they choose to brutalize?  ESPECIALLY WOMEN?!??


What is going on here?  "This is not the ZH site you are looking for..."



Sat, 06/02/2012 - 16:32 | 2487700 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

I think it was the "another billion" that did it.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 18:55 | 2487919 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Charlie Wilson??? Seriously??? Charlie Wilson wants to know who "DROPPED A BOMB ON ME"... lol




Sat, 06/02/2012 - 21:42 | 2488154 Jena
Jena's picture

I haven't heard that in awhile but weirdly enough I think of it every now and then.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 19:16 | 2487945 TheGardener
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Poor girl, wrong site.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 20:45 | 2488052 potlatch
potlatch's picture

i think it is not the point, it is the shabby construction of it in prose, that irks so.  I can let go a weak point; but do not cross me with being inarticulate.  I have standards, sir

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 21:34 | 2488137 Charles Wilson
Charles Wilson's picture

"I have standards, sir"

By all means, please let us know when you intend to display them.


Until then, 'bye everyone.



Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:31 | 2487479 Darkness
Darkness's picture

time for another party in egypt. whose bringing the punch?

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:37 | 2487485 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I've got my own problems.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:37 | 2487486 knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

I agree with all you have stated except for the timeline...It may happen then it may not....


They have been able to kick this can far farther than I thought possible...

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:26 | 2487575 New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

I don't think you'll have to wait too long... each day increases its odds until you get to 100%, or 100 days.   billf

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:41 | 2487492 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

All future Egyptian leaders can now expect to recieve the same reward as Mubarak,

If they survive that long...

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:57 | 2487520 brewing
brewing's picture

on a long enough timeline...

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 17:27 | 2487800 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

only the pyramids will survive..

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:17 | 2487556 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Mubarak's fate insures that all further Arab-spring like movements will meet even stronger opposition. The Chinese authorities tolerated Tienanmen Square up to the point that the protestors started to call for their overthrow and jailing. Once the movement was seen as a threat to their existance the tanks were called in. Who would be foolish enough to think it would turn out otherwise? If Mubarak were in Zurich now living in the luxury of his honestly stolen loot more governments might have changed. Never put an animal in a position of no escape unless you want their fangs to be bared.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:44 | 2487612 Kayman
Kayman's picture


Easing a murdering thug into luxurious retirement is always a difficult dilemma.  Would you be OK with Joe or Adolf happily paddling in a pool in Vegas ?

And I would like to remind you once again, that Ginger Rogers danced every step that you did- only backwards and in high heels.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 16:37 | 2487710 Bubble
Bubble's picture

Maybe he's not happy with Dubya and Blair being able to either. What if you gave him an advisory roll with JPM? Then it's not really retirement...

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 18:18 | 2487869 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Chile did it with Pinochet, and has done very very well thanks to that bad apple ending the Allende nonsense brutally.

Sun, 06/03/2012 - 00:07 | 2488447 dolce vita
dolce vita's picture

if you kick tiger in the ass ,you better be prepared to deal with its teeth

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:40 | 2487494 onlooker
onlooker's picture


The US, UK, and UN all have limited capabilities at this time. With less than half a dozen countries in the turmoil of change in MENA, there is one thought that concerns me.


Is the US content to see disruption for the lesser purpose of seeing Iran fall.


Is a more important purpose one that seeks to keep the fighters occupied and out of Saudi.


Saudi has a King. Saudi has high unemployment. Saudi has some repressive characteristics. Saudi has loot worth the effort for several factions.


If Saudi comes under siege, our present situation will become the “good old days”.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:07 | 2487536 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Good thing the US has all that natural gas. 

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 17:40 | 2487820 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Good thing the US kept her natural ability to get to resources.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 16:32 | 2487667 Fuzzyduck
Fuzzyduck's picture

been living in Saudi the last 5 years. In the last year a lot of the security surrounding western compounds has been removed. There is a huge amount of infra-structual spending going on at the moment, building new universities for women, economic cities, roads, houses etc. You almost get the impression that the Arab spring has scared the royals here that they are lavishly splashing the cash to try and appease the masses. There also a huge amount of negative rhetoric against Syria and Iran in the local newspapers. It going to be interesting to see what happens in Egypt & Syria in the next 6 months and the impact it has on this part of the world particularly in light of the sunni versus shia conflicts that are bubbling below the surface waiting for the right spark to ignite all out conflict. Bahrain in my opinion is the straw that might break the camel's back? 

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:50 | 2487510 Satan
Satan's picture

I was enjoying your article right up to the point you started giving odds...

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 20:19 | 2488022 tankster
tankster's picture


Sat, 06/02/2012 - 14:59 | 2487523 Convolved Man
Convolved Man's picture

My bets are tending toward the faction ordering hunter-killer drones.

Are they in country yet?

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 18:16 | 2487864 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Those are for precision strikes.    A good part of the egyptian population are the problem, not just some individuals.   It has become a dead-end civilisation, unable to feed itself, unable to make anything anyone outside the country wants to buy, left begging for "loans" from a developed world that itself needs loans.  The result could well be biblical stuff, not merely medeivel.

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 21:53 | 2488175 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

Yeeep, Couple all of that with a bass ackwards religion created by a mass murdering mysogenistic pedophile and you got one hell of a pile of steaming human dung!

"Mutilate the womens clitoris', Hang the gays, behead the infidels".  Ahhh the glorious religion of pieces...

Pull out of all of the Middle East NOW! Let them get back to culling their herd! Fuck 'em!

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:12 | 2487544 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Bernanke, killing people indirectly... maybe in the end we'll be able to charge him as war criminal for his QE program...

Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:27 | 2487546 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

didya miss somthin, bill? Egypt's Mubarak Gets Life Imprisonment in Historic Trial

still, tyler's warnings of the thermidorian aspect are also highlighted here, and rightly so

this from thursday, 5.31.12 (also from theTripoliPost) and reminds us, as doesBillF, here,  that there is many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip...:

Egypt Lifts 30-Year-Old State of Emergency Egypt's ruling military council, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) declared on Thursday it has lifted the three-decade state of emergency. After its last renewal expired, the SCAF pledged to continue to provide security to Egypt ahead of a power transfer to a civilian-led government in late June
me again>>america is up to its neck in noAfrica, and although many here in the US have already surrendered thru sheeplike sleep and acceptance of the propaganda and the seemingly-endless accounts of what's happenin which actually make no fuking sense, whatsoever, such as prez0 Vs mittens for ezample, just offhand
or: invading iran so it won't nuke us;  bailing out the limited liability corporations;  supporting the EU banks and sovereigns with our weThePeople debt;  allowing NAT0 to command US forces in the god-blessed efforts to kill the moQ by protecting, er, killing civilians...and so on and so forth, and scooby dooby dooby...
thank you, bill!  you didn't write a book, but you did introduce/re-introduce some magnificent themes of our time, place, and people here for those who are prepared to catch them
Sat, 06/02/2012 - 15:22 | 2487567 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Hey that's no fair. When does ours start. When do we get to arrest the banksters and treasonous politicians. I'm going to be too old to fight if this goes on much longer.

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