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Guest Post: Eight Simple Truths You Need To Know About 2012
Submitted by Simon Black from Sovereign Man
Eight Simple Truths You Need To Know About 2012
Yesterday we discussed certain events that, in my view, are nearly mathematical certainties. Things like a restructuring of public pensions and Social Security in Europe and the US. Western governments blocking Internet and mobile networks. War. The US government being forced to issue debt in a foreign currency.
All of these events are underpinned by a simple premise:
1) Public and private debts included, most western nations are insolvent. Big time.
2) History shows that economic growth in such an environment is nearly impossible when such a large percentage of GDP must be allocated solely to interest. Most countries in this position either default or [hyper]inflate. Both have catastrophic consequences.
3) Continued political and monetary intervention in the economy is counterproductive. From ‘Cash for Clunkers’ to negative real interest rates, such intervention only serves to make the problems, and their impacts, much worse.
4) The combined ingredients of sovereign insolvency; a global financial system based on worthless paper currency; and consumptive, import-oriented, public entitlement economies have created conditions for an epic, long-term economic depression.
5) Deteriorating economic conditions drive social unrest. [In fact, there's a great paper by two European economists which defines an explicit correlation between government budget cuts and things like rising crime rates, riots, and even attempted revolution.]
6) Faced with a marauding population that threatens their own survival, governments will stop at nothing to maintain the status quo: their power, our expense. Again, history shows that police states, boogeyman enemies, a total loss of privacy, capital controls, higher taxes, etc. will all become the norm.
7) None of these delay tactics can prevent human and financial capital from eventually migrating to where they are treated best. This will ultimately force a complete system reset by starving the beast.
8) This is not the first time this has happened, and it won’t be the last. This time is NOT different. Our modern society is not a unique and special snowflake that can ward off the consequences that have plagued empires for millennia.
Everything from the way I invest to how I allocate my time and plan for the future is based on this view. It’s why I’m in Chile, why we purchased a 1,000+ acre farm, and why we plan on sharing it with like-minded people.
I may be a bit early, but I’d much rather be early than thinking through these implications while I’m packing my bags. After all, things can ‘feel’ quite normal for a long time. Changes take place gradually, then faster and faster, until the decay looks like an upside-down hockey stick.
The Roman Empire, for example, began its spectacular decline shortly after Augustus became de facto emperor in 27 BC. He was followed by a long series of dismal failures– Tiberius, Caligula, Claudius, Nero, etc. But Rome muddled along for hundreds of years, wavering between growth and decay.
The changes were gradual. A little currency debasement here, a bit of excess spending there, and throw in plenty of assassinations and foreign wars for good measure. Along the way, though, thinking people could see the writing on the wall… and many of Rome’s citizens set sail for greener pastures.
The gradual changes became more and more pronounced… and the more pronounced, the more people left. As Gibbon recounts in his seminal work, The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, the city of Rome lost nearly 75% of its population in the Empire’s final 50-years in the 5th century.
History is full of other examples of once proud nations that, facing problems for decades (or even centuries), completely unwound in a matter of years. The Ottoman Empire. The Ming Dynasty. Feudal France. The Soviet Union.
Bottom line, when the real change comes, it comes very, very quickly.
Think about the pace of change these days. It’s quickening. Europe is a great case study for this– when concerns about Greece first surfaced, European leaders were able to contain the damage. There was disquiet, but it soon dissipated.
Fast forward to today. We can hardly go a single day without a major, market-rocking headline. And European politicians’ attempts to assuage the damage have a useful half life that can be measured in days… sometimes hours now.
Like the Ottomans, the Soviets, the Romans before them, Western civilization is entering the phase where its rate of decline will start looking like that upside-down hockey stick.
There is no crystal ball that can tell us exactly how/when it will all go down. It stands to reason that certain events (perhaps this year’s Presidential elections in the US, Russia, France, etc.) will be pivotal in the decline, but suffice it to say that time is not on our side given the pace of change.
Each of us has a finite amount of resources– time, energy, capital, etc. And I really want to encourage you to think clearly and deliberately about how you allocate those resources… e.g. you’re better off buying an ounce of gold than making a political campaign contribution.
2011 was a challenging year. 2012 will likely prove even more. But this isn’t anything to dread. It’s is an incredibly exciting time to be alive– change should be embraced, not feared.
Empires always run their course. Bubbles burst. But creative, thinking human beings always survive and thrive.
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The question is whether this collapse will begin in earnest in 2012. It looks very likely. It is time for the financial system to change. It is too good at extracting value from a much weakened economy. Oil has been in plateau since 2005, and will soon decline. The extraction levels of the financial system need to decrease. The mosquitoes are going to kill this caribou, otherwise.
The fat Gulf Oil exec was on cnbc today saying NG (using it to transport) would be the story of '12; maybe because when oil is at $192 p/b they will need an alternative. Too bad NG must be turned to liquid to be shipped across the ocean. Making it liquid is a highly explosive process, and since America's catch phrase is NIMBY, I don't think we will be seeing those plants any time soon.
Since Solyndra killed investments into solar (false flag if I have ever seen one) there is no alternative except for facing the decline as a suburban nation strapped to oil like Major Kong rode the bomb.
just print the fkin money and let the market decide whose currency is worth what.
This fiat-by-debt bullshit just creates total instability.
trav... are you familiar with this book: http://www.amazon.com/Debt-First-5-000-Years/dp/1612191290/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1325612809&sr=1-1 - Debt: The First 5,000 Years. I'm only about 100 pages into it, but I think you would enjoy it.
This it??
From the American who brought you the 8 Rules of U.S. Government Spending now comes....
THE EIGHT RULES OF THE NEW WORLD ECONOMY
1. The Status Quo must be maintained.
2. The Status Quo MUST BE MAINTAINED.
3. If a country stops printing, doesn't borrow, or decreses spending the fight is over.
4. Only two wars at a time please.
5. ANY "Official Data" can be manipulated.
6. NO Public Privacy, NO problem.
7. Governments can spend as much as they want to.
8. If your economy is stalling, you have to print money.
Yup... that's the book. It's an interesting read so far. The mythology around how money came to be... pure fallacy. Footnoted well, which I always read and appreciate. Like I said... only 100 pages in, so I'm not sure that I'm endorsing it exactly, but so far, so good.
"Everything from the way I invest to how I allocate my time and plan for the future is based on this view. It’s why I’m in Chile, why we purchased a 1,000+ acre farm, and why we plan on sharing it with like-minded people."
"Sharing it with like-mined people." In the actual sense ? Say, akin to Galt's Gulch ?
If I remember correctly, [ invitation-only ] residents of Galt's Gulch had to pull every calorie of their own weight. I suggest Simon apply the same criteria as John Galt -- lest, before long, he has for himself an ex-pat welfare colony in the wastes of the Andes.
I think Simon sees himself living the life of the rich plantation owner while the workers provide for his wants.
The only question is if Chile will get through this relatively unscathed.
With my limited knowledge I would thank "maybe yes", but what do I know about Chile, it's population and elites? And even if the country remains mostly sane inside, do any neighbors look greedy at the country to capture its natural resources or whatnot?
Problem is I cannot think of a country that looks long-term stable inside, and is not either at the whim of some superpower country already or can become so very quickly...
Maybe it's just me, but I wonder who the local citizens of any central or south american country would come after first... American expats? The USA may be our only safe refuge.
Sample Customs Declaration Form
(03/11/2011)U.S. Customs and Border Protection Declaration Form 6059B - Instructions
Welcome to the United States!
Each individual arriving into the United States must complete the CBP Declaration Form 6059B. If you are traveling with other immediate family members, complete one form per family unit. Please contact your nearest port of entry to order the form.
Explanations for information fields are explained below sample image.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection Declaration Form - Front
1. Print your last (family) name. Print your first (given) name. Print the first letter of your middle name.
2. Print your date of birth in the appropriate day/month/year boxes.
3. Print the number of family members traveling with you (do not include yourself).
4. Print your current street address in the United States. If you are staying at a hotel, include the hotel's name and street address. Print the city and the state in the appropriate boxes.
5. Print the name of the country that issued your passport.
6. Print your passport number.
7. Print the name of the country where you currently live.
8. Print the name of the country(ies) that you visited on your trip prior to arriving to the United States.
9. If traveling by airline, print the airline's name and flight number. If traveling by vessel (ship), print the vessel's name.
10. Mark an X in the Yes or No box. Are you traveling on a business (work-related) trip?
11. Mark an X in the Yes or No box. Are you bringing with you:
a. fruits, plants, food, or insects?
b. meats, animals, or animal/wildlife products?
c. disease agents, cell cultures, or snails?
d. soil or have you visited a farm/ranch/pasture outside the United States?
12. Mark an X in the Yes or No box. Have you or any family members traveling with you been in close proximity of (such as touching or handling) livestock outside the United States?
13. Mark an X in the Yes or No box. Are you or any family members traveling with you bringing $10,000 or more in U.S. dollars or foreign equivalent in any form into the United States?
Read definition of monetary instruments on the reverse side of the form.
Examples: coins, cash, personal or cashier's check, traveler's checks, money orders, stocks, bonds.
If yes, your must complete the Customs Form 4790.
14. Mark an X in the Yes or No box. Are you or any family members traveling with you bringing commercial merchandise into the United States?
Examples: all articles intended to be sold or left in the United States, samples used for soliciting orders, or goods that are not considered personal effects.
15. If you are a U.S. resident, print the total value of all goods (including commercial merchandise) you or any family members traveling with you have purchased or acquired abroad (including gifts for someone else, but not items mailed to the United States) and are bringing into the United States.
Note: U.S. residents are normally entitled to a duty-free exemption of $800 on items accompanying them.
If you are a visitor (non-U.S. Resident), print the total value of all goods (including commercial merchandise) you or any family members traveling with you are bringing into the United States and will remain in the United States.
Note: Visitors (non-U.S. Residents) are normally entitled to an exemption of $100.
Declare all articles on this form. For gifts, please indicate the retail value. Use the reverse side of this form if additional space is needed to list the items you will declare.
The U.S. Customs officer will determine duty. Duty will be assessed at the current rate on the first $1,000 above the exemption.
Read the notice on the reverse side of the form.
Sign the form and print the date.
Keep the complete form with you and hand it to the CBP inspector when you approach the Customs and Border Protection area.
Controlled substances, obscene articles, and toxic substances are generally prohibited entry.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection Declaration Form - Back
Thank you, and Welcome to the United States.
Any experience with what happens if you check Yes to 11d or 12? Do you get quarantined? Fumigated? Detained?
(Why would anyone check Yes even if they had been to a farm or touched livestock?)
Are you saying that the Solyndra failure was intentional... to deter investment into solar? Any links to similar opinions (or would you be willing to expand)? I'd be interested in reading up on this POV.
what ever happened to those clean coal plants oBLAHma was promising? instead, the A-HOLE is closing conventional plants! it's no mistake,a non US born president is heralding in total destruction!
It's my own theory. No links, other than to my own. I will expand but it is rather simple. Tank the fragile solar market by having the WH invest in a company that is non performing, then watch as everyone runs away screaming from solar. Finance gets to short the downide, oil gets to benefit because investment into solar has turned down. It's simple, but that is why it makes sense to me.
Suburbs are simple to figure out. People living in them have three choices.
You can at least consider that most suburbs were built on some incredibly productive farmland. That's at least a positive in the situation. It'll be back breaking work the first season getting the plots and soil into shape, but if planned properly with a couple of rototillers, hundreds of miles of arable land can be reclaimed in the North and South Eastern parts of the US.
The south west...not so much, it's a dessert, it grows peyote and tumble weeds, other than a diet of hallucinogens and twine like fiber, the south west doesn't have much going for it unless water magically happens. Even commercial crops are considered a risk in the region with the past two years being complete failures.
Ugly = Phoenix in a decade.
Peggy Hill (King of the Hill show), speaking of Phoenix; "This is a city which should not be here. It is a monument to Man's arrogance". ;-)
Not sure of the "burbs" in your area, but a lot of the best soil was removed by the builders in my area leaving just a little above the clay. Enough for the grass to grow.
Growing stuff will certainly be a lot of work as you say, especially the first season. First challenge will be to grow it. The next challenge will be to protect it.
Tilapia Farms bitchez...
Barf...why not just eat bluegil or Barbute...disgusting channel feeders. Couldn't pay me enough to eat one. It would be like eating a urinal puck and worse for you.
Clay is good soil. In fact it's perfect soil. If it's dark clay that has a slight funk of sulfur, minerals are good in it. If you taste it, it will have a sweet taste to it which means nitrogen is in abundance.
Clay also holds moisture well, the tiling is just to make sure some type of aration is happening so oxygen can be mixed into the dirt. If the soil is loose (like the bag shit sold at garden centers), water evapourates from it, runs off or finds the bedrock and joins the water table.
Corn grows tall in clay and potatoes grow wide and deep. That black earth people talk about, that's clay. Good dirt doesn't look like that packaged shit from Lowes/Home Depot/whereever in the bag, if you buy the soil there then you add ALOT of stuff to it to become useful. If you want to grow grass, you buy top soil, but that doesn't grow food, just weeds and grass.
If you've got dark soil (clay), you've got good soil.
Every plot if rotated each year. First year dig it and seed it with clover to increase the nitrogen in the soil. Second year grow. Third year clover again. rinse and repeat.
Clover draws nitrogen and other things from the air, takes what it can and deposits the rest into the soil. In fall, you harvest the clover after it get to around hip height and that becomes hay which is increadibly useful for dairy farmers. The clover is more nutrious and keeps cows healthy. Horses however fart and shit as if they've been for a trip to Mexico. They eat hay (made from grass) and fresh grass.
In turn the clover also in a honey bee's favorite food groups. So clover is an awesome and cheap method of land management plus livestock feed.
If a cow isn't your speed, goats, just don't leave anything outside that you don't wany broken, eaten, stepped on, scratched or hidden. Oh yeah, don't buy two goats. Three is fine, one is fine. Two never. The goats will attempt to dominate one another.
Basically they'll stand on one another and piss/shit all over each other. It's funny, but remember you have to clean them up everytime for the sake of their hygene. Get a third goat and one of them ends up being the "leader" eventually. They still stand on each other plus piss and shit all over each other until that happens though.
Raccoons in the NE are incredibly handy, they will keep nastier things like Fishers out of your garden and livestock. Fishers are fast, smart and vicious. Only time I've seen any hit one with a gun is Never. Only way to catch them is trap them, even then they are smart and can tear a 100 pound trap to pieces. They are the east coast version of the Wolverine. Raccoons however are relativly friendly to people and are very terroritorial to other meat eaters. A mama raccoon can weight in at 100 pounds and will keep other carnivores away.
Trick is to feed them so they don't go after your goods. I usually feed them table scraps and it keeps them out of my garbage and chicken coop. Plus they can kick the shit out of anything on four legs as they travel in packs. Well at least around my place they do.
CPL, any chance you live in maine? you have incisive insight and i would like to learn more from you.
I'm in the Ottawa Valley I'm afraid, a bit far for a walk. lol
Most of what I know was learned when I grew up here. If you want to start learning, buy a couple of chickens. They are wickedly easy to take care of and building a coop takes about 20 hours (getting the materials to finished chicken coop). There are tonnes of plans online for free.
around here you can buy a chick for $0.50
A laying hen for around $3.00...just getting the pricing on Kijiji
Roosters you just trade. You obviously need them for the baby making and defense of the coop. No more than one or you'll be selling cock fight tickets. They keep cats and foxes out. Better to let the rooster to keep it's spur if you live in the country. It's like expecting a declawed cat is live longer than a week.
Chickens don't live that long. A boiler chicken for stock is over a year old, if you roast them they will taste like leather. Best age to snap a chicken neck is around 7 months, makes for a good roaster. So don't bother giving them any names they don't live long enough to remember and they are dumb as a bag of rocks.
Best food for chickens, maggots. Otherwise remember they are omnivores, no meat in their diet means no eggs. I could say protein in general, but people start interpreting that as feeding a chicken soy products. Remember, think cheap. Flies are everywhere and they are easy to make, just need something rotten and the flies will find it, 8 hours later, fresh maggots. Chickens find their own food mostly except the deep winter then you need chicken feed.
There will be hyperinflation and the end at the latest, 2018. After that you go the USSR route, peaceful breakup, Yugoslavia and years of civil war, Hitler route national fascism, or Chairman Mao communism route. 2018 at the latest.
Schiff thinks 2012 will be the implosion, but the implosion is just the first bomb to be dropped in a long, drawn out war between the citizens and the elites. Lock and load, get in shape, be ready fools.
A few large muni pension funds imploding should get the ball rolling once and for all. Once the small brained pig cops realize they've been had, they'll turn on their system hosts. All bets will be off. There'll be no more pigs ready to bust some occupier heads and sweep away the rabble from the parks. The cocktails on 5th Avenue will be of the Molotov kind.
There have been hundreds of them imploding. Cheques bounce, creditors get paid with someone elses savings...it's been going on for three years. Remember the stink in Palo Alto two years ago?
That happens every day now in every shape and form.
There's a godamn market rally today! At least oil is up and getting nearer to 120....
when the real change comes, it comes very, very quickly.
Best line of the article. And when monetary change comes (currency collapse) it will take all of about 15 minutes to utterly change a nation's behaviors.
You walk in for lunch and your CC's / Debit Cards are good. While eating the meal, signs will go up "Cash only, no cards accepted"
THAT's when you know the real change has arrived.
Hmm, I hadn't considered the lunch counter scenario, but it seems likely that, in any case, the change will be too rapid to trade. Really, did you think they would let you back up the truck on FAZ at the last minute? HA!
More likely, we will all wake up one morning and the new reality will be in place, markets frozen at much lower levels, banks on holiday, shortages beginning to appear. And even if you had backed up the truck the day before, all those derivative-dependant ETFs will be declared meaningless.
I think it will seem like 15 minutes or overnight to the sheeple. But I suspect ZH'ers will be going "oh shit. oh shit. here it comes" for a week before it hits home. And I predict the sheeple will still call us tin-foil-hatters as we try to warn them.
At 1st soveriegn default, get what cash you still have in the system, out. Before the afore mentioned bank holidays.
I don't much look for the blowup in 2012. I think Obama and the Fed will everything possbile to artificially blow the wind in the sails of the economy until after the election to just try and pull out a win. Then WHOEVER wins the presidency will be faced with 2013 and beyond the task of managing the collapse.
However, if oil continues to climb and gasoline goes $4-6 dollars a gallon then all bets are off.
9) Ben Bernanke lies....a lot.
10) As does Turbo Tax, though you could make an argument that Timmay's dishonesty is mitigated by his abject incompetence. He may actually believe some of the things he says.
Great twenty twelve opener Simon I especially enjoyed this tidbit:
'Changes take place gradually, then faster and faster, until the decay looks like an upside-down hockey stick'
Brav-ow. Next time please be more general, OK?
yesterday I found my old hockey stick in my parents' basement.
lots of happy memories followed.
Agreed - The important and relevant points in this piece get lost in a sea of generality, lack of specific evidence, and opinions cloaked as 'truth.' Pity.
P.S. Didn't McKintyre disprove the hockey stick graph? (sarc.)
What's the y-axis in such a chart
I'm assuming x is time
What is the metric to quantify collapse?
Simon Black proves once again he is a traitor to his country (like most 9/11 troofers and OWS hippies) and a weasel.
He has only one wish in his life: seeing America, The Holy Land Of The Free, being wiped out from the surface of the Earth.
But this will never happen, for scientific and religious reasons both. America will still be the world's greatest economic and military superpower a thousand years from now.
A little pretentious to say, no?
Empires blessed by God Himself never die.
Nerdy libertarians, doomer conspiracy theorists, silverbug hillbillies and pro-Iran crackpots like Ron Paul will very soon learn this reality the hard way.
Do you think God, if he exists, is really concerned about lines on a map and preferring one side over the other? Those are strictly human constructions, perhaps one day you will see through them to a greater truth instead of categorizing your thinking by lines drawn in sand.
American Exceptionalism is a disease of the mind which has been implanted into the minds of the citizenry so that they will justify the immoral actions of the elites and governing class.
We are all holding onto impossible and false narratives and myths, the truth of which is just starting to be glimpsed by the masses. The veil will be lifted to those who seek without prejudice.
He's not a real poster... a parody of another who himself is likely a some sort of parody. Nice post.
Phew ... a parody of a parody of a parody, go far enough down the line and eventually you will find actual people that seriously think like that
a majority of americans think the way he posts, unfortunately. Your response should be for them, but they won't listen (mostly).
Yes... I mean, just look at - well...I mean, it used to be called Constantinople, what is it called now?
History is a real bitch when it doesn't agree with our points, no?
I still call it Byzantium.
But I've been out of touch for a while.
How is that praying the economy gets better working for you Hamy?
I don't know if I can take Hamy and MDB in the same morning.
America is neither Holy nor Free.
Gads!
It's Hamy the Wanker!
A thousand years ... a thousand years ... where have I heard that before ... somethng about a Reich, maybe? Wallbanger, are you recycling history AGAIN?
fuk me Hamy is a tool
Hamy you are precious.. please stick around for the next 5 years ..you can sing the Stars & Stripes as your country sinks in unpayable debt and i'll echo from across here in Europe (any volunteers from Japan are welcome too)
who is going to lead you out of this debt hole? Jeff Immelt (at propped up GE) or Jamie Dimon (at propped up JP Morgan) ??
Answers on a Postcard to: the Titanic isn't holed, it's just a burst shower cap in Cabin C1198, The Band Plays On, Nothing to Worry About, Captain Ben E Bernanke.
Reposting from NDAA by Ilene.
The Patriot Act formed the TSA and DHS. Apparently that's not enough. The NDAA, supposedly, directs the indefinite detention of terrorist sympathizers (by their defenition) and their ilk for our protection.
However. If you make a law (NDAA) of such substance, which cloaks the interpretation through gray legalize, many forms of domestic terror can be proscribed to it, then what you are doing is protecting your own ass within the beltway, not the population as a whole. Why, except for the Guantanamo Bay detention of those captured terrorists, would we need a law to protect us from ourselves?
Trying to not get off topic, this act, as I see it , it some kind of a hedge against major civil disorder. And not just any run of the mill riots, but prolonged civil disobedience. There was a time when the US military was used against a population in this country. We can't remember a recent one because Custer lost at the Little Big Horn so long ago and we'd like to forget. I think these are the intentions of this bill. They are preparing to fight succession and strong opposition to their future moves. They do not want any interference.
If that's not Tyranny, then nothing is.
Facts are our Friends
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviation_and_Transportation_Security_Act
The Aviation and Transportation Security Act (ATSA, Pub.L. 107-71November 19, 2001) was enacted by the 107th United States Congress in the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks. The Act created theTransportation Security Administration (TSA) within the U.S. Department of Transportation. However, with the passage of the Homeland Security Act, the TSA was later transferred to the Department of Homeland Security.
Thanks. I stand corrected. But the gist is still there.
np. The Patriot Act just wiped out 1/3-1/2 of the Bill of Rights. Easy to confuse with the other shit comin' down.
Long-assed way to say, "Plans to implement Continuity of Governance (COG) against the people's will for same is the most obvious definition of tyranny."
This is conditioning for response: we're being told that there are lots of people loose in the country who are really dangerous, and need to be handled in an extreme way. In an actual continuity of govt. situation, they're going to do whatever they want; all the PDDs and laws may give them the color of law, and that may work with some people, but that's all they're hoping for: to blunt or discourage initial resistance, and to sway the eternally stupid with their 'laws'. They likely have key figures already targeted, and potential leaders as well. A 'night of the long knives' is probably in their plans; this lays the groundwork. The backlash against it will not bring armed people to the streets, unless the streets are already occupied by soldiers. Who's the target, otherwise? Savvy people will seek to find common cause with local law enforcement; most rural law enforcement may be malleable and side with the people, suburbs and cities, not so much. But that is the sane road to resistance. What will likely also happen is urban violence and rioting, as the 'underclass' will see social unrest as an excuse to rob and loot (already happening with greater frequency, even though things are relatively stable). They'll be sent to the FEMA camps along with resisters, and a thankful public will cheer removal of the 'threat'. That's what I'd aim for if I were them.
Excellent article. The consensus seems to be a pollyanna gradual decline featuring a sweet, hardly noticable boiling-frog-style-years-long journey through crumbling Greece, then a waltz into long party in decaying Argentina, followed many decades later by a happy farmville lifestyle settling in at or around Zimbabwe. Like hell!
If you want some idea how it'll happen, read "Shut Down." That's how the collapse will happen: fast. Really, really, really fast.
Do you need a farmer with Agronomy degree in Chile? I went through the corporate crap and spent time in Argentina, but I think you are spot on.
Good Luck!
People looking at either real estate investment ideas OR models for an economy during the coming tsunami should take a closer look at Chile. Travelling there recently, I was VERY impressed!
According to Celente, Argentina just passed their version of NDAA. That was my preferred bug out location, now I dunno where to go?
Maybe I'll just head for the hills with some buddies from high school, we can call ourselves WOLVERINES!
With the "global economy" comes the obvious and predictable privatization of everything along with consolidating everything.
Hence, your comment, Hugh G Rection, and,
http://www.loc.gov/lawweb/servlet/lloc_news?disp3_l205402929_text
This is taking place all over the planet, with all those astro-turf groups all over the world (this has long been the case, especially with those International Taxpayer Unions and the domestic branches).
I've been monitoring the similarity in Sweden and the USA legislation and laws passed since the Reagan administration, not quite parallel, but their laws appear to mirror several years later, and this can be observed in too many countries.
OK, Chile might be an answer for some, today, but...sorry to place this under your post...there's no historical parallel with romans leaving the declining Roman empire.
The Romans didn't pack up their gold coins and leave, they died off pretty much in place, failing to reproduce themselves and/or allow their children to survive to adulthood. Yes infanticide as abortion/birth control. The Europeans are going the latter route, and quickly by any historical precedent, and have been at it for decades now. The U.S. is not, or not yet anyway(statist policies can bring this on here).
Anyway, have a look at Chile's birthrates over the past several years before you set off. I understand they have a social security system that works by capitalisation rather than repartition(like Socialist Insecurity here does), but still, social capital is people, not Soylent Green.
The Romans didn't pack up their gold coins and leave, they died off pretty much in place
The males & children were killed... & the women were raped & made slaves of...
That sort of thing, barbarian invasion, happened *after* their population was *first* decimated by demographic decline. They couldn't defend what they had. Thus my advice to America-leavers. Go somewhere not in demographic decline.
Countries that now seem friendly will not remain so. America will be widely blamed for the chaos, and countries will have their own problems. A, and Americans will be a convenient target, particularly prepared Americans. Let's assume the best - local law enforcement doesn't go bad immediately. They won't be spending their time defending the gringos. Unless you're living in a genuine armed compound unable to be penetrated by vehicles, it's only a matter of time before anything worth taking from you is gone, likely along with your life, since you killled a bunch of locals when they came for your stuff. I wouldn't consider living in such a community unless it included well-respected locals from the lower classes. Best case: You become the local trading post, existing at the pleasure of the local authorities. They aren't going to let you squat on your food while people are dying.
"Best case: You become the local trading post, existing at the pleasure of the local authorities. They aren't going to let you squat on your food while people are dying."
Bartertown, bitchez!
This is not particularly accurate. On average, Roman women did not have more than two children. A lot of this was due to high maternal death rates, rather high infant mortality rates and a generally low fertility rate.
The Romans really struggled to expand their citizen populace because of this, finally resorting to huge legal boons for women that had three or more children in order to encourage women to attempt to have more children (such a woman could inherit outside of the paterfamilias system, she could hold land and wealth in her own right -- a truly phenomenal postition for a woman at the time).
Indeed, one of the reasons (but not the only one) why the Empire expanded and the slave system became so integral was basically because Rome could not expand its own populace to meet the labour and skills requirements of their civilisation.
He is willing to share his 1000+ acre farm with like-minded people !
Sir, how do you intend to determine that ?
Farm Factor auditions ?
I was wondering the same..?
I would hire enough able bodied trigger fingers, beyond that my guests would have long hair and a great set of personality.
and talent, no doubt.
The reserve currency role for the dollar?......Blessing or Burden?
Any reserve currency is a burden. It benefits a few while the whole planet is impoverished and enslaved to banker debt. Gold and silver are the only true reserves, and the only reliable currency.
One simple truth for 2012: the highs of the year will occur on the first trading day.
Of course this is a fact. True, too, because it is almost unthinkable. The impossable always happens. The timing is the serious problem. When government pulls out of the lending business. And, they will pull out. That will be the end for real estate in the U.S. Then I guess it is dominoes. We are probably in the domino effect now. Canada?
How much is this guy charging for a visit to his 1000+ acre farm in Chile? Just had a read of a post he wrote 10 days ago, sounds like a dress rehearsal for the Chilean take of Brokeback Mountain.....
"Down here in Chile, I intend to spend the weekend (and most of next week) doing absolutely nothing but reading, relaxing, and riding horseback with friends around our new 1,000+ acre farm. I’m excited that many readers will soon be joining me."
creative, thinking human beings always survive and thrive.
Until they come in contact with the fascists that have been tracking them for years.
My wife and I were discussing what we think has become THE epdemic problem in our society: lying. It seems everyone lies, all the time. Lying has become the tool that drives our self-centered world. Maybe it has always been as such, but I do not remember it being that way.
Liar.
;->
Smooth-ee.....
aka Human Nature, no?
You are correct my friend and just remember that lying inevitably is linked to stealing at the hip. The two are inseperable..
You are correct my friend and just remember that lying inevitably is linked to stealing at the hip. The two are inseperable..
Negative, SmoothCoolSmoke, on that
".. THE epdemic problem in our society.."
It is a natural outcome for a completely fraud-based society.
One where non-meritocracy rules, while the corporate-controlled myth-media claims meritocracy is the rule of the day.
One where predatory jurisprudence has made any American arrestable, for doing virtually anything today. Where truly he or she who owns the gold, makes that golden rule!
But to have arrived at such a thought, indicates a lack of knowledge on both your parts, therefore, your homework assignment is the following.
Study the two individuals below, and what they have to say:
Paul Cienfuegos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XX8sJIJATGE
Thomas Linzey
http://www.celdf.org/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rgn7mlsb5gE
And review this, please:
Back in 1907, there came into being the first securitization in America: a mortgage bond with a senior tranche, created by Samuel W. Straus in NYC.
Next came 1913, when their tools were passed into law:
(1) Federal Reserve System, establishing the credit and money-creation monopoly;
(2) the Federal Income Tax (16th Amendment), then going directly to the Federal Reserve Bank as it was created to pay them the interest on that money created and loaned to the government;
(3) the oil depletion allowance, further giveaway by subsidizing the bank/oil cartel (basically merged or were always one); and,
(4) legislation restructuring foundations, awarding them tax exemptions, so the plutocrats could shelter (hide) their wealth untaxed, and use it as a cutout to hider ownership of other corporations and financial entities.
Fait accompli!
It has always been as such (that everyone lies), but usually it had adverse consequences to it. For many years now, the removal of many such consequences has been the main task of politics...
All I know is I have put my tin foil hat to the side for the time being and replaced it with my Ron Paul rally cap. Go get em' in Iowa, Viva la Ron Paul Revolution!
QUICK! HURRY! It's time to move out of the collapsing empire and into an already-collapsed banana republic! Why wait to experience daily corruption, crime and oppression when you can be living the dream now?
Fact: The Russian Revolution was carried out when ONLY 1%, 1 OUT OF 100 WERE BOLSHEVIKS....90% were social democrats and the other 9 were mensheviks.....
Hence the safety in numbers is not right.
Similar thing with Germany in 20s and 30s. I was watching on the History channel that the National Socialist (aka NAZI) party was thought of as a joke by many. But, it was out of the ashes of WW1 that the NAZI party came to be....
The world blamed and punished Germany leaving it's citizens 'humiliated'. They were looking for a leader to get them out of the funk.....enter Adolf. He had all the answers. He was telling you what you wanted to hear. Thus they took the bait and the rest is history.
Similar to today methinks. We are in a big funk and looking to elect another dick-tator later this year.
The Mayans may be wrong about the "end of the world" but THAT IS RELATIVE....I think what they are saying is THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT.....Everyone is taking it literally....no....corky was right..."life goes on" and will so but in what form???
"One way or another....this darkness has to give" (GD)
Simon Black is presenting a false picture of Europe - perhaps to sell his services and 'preferred' locales - and as he well knows, it is absurd to paint Europe with the same brush as the USA.
Europe is not the euro-zone, or current EU political structures, which will evolve. They are not essential.
Europe, despite its issues, is the best overall place to live in the world, though there are certainly spots in the Americas and in Asia where one can also lead a nice life.
But despite its flaws - our no-death-penalty Europe, with almost no one in jail, with very little legal or police oppression or even annoyance on the Western Continent, is as different from the USA as night and day.
Europe's structures can be well-criticised ... but Continental Europe remains an enlightened, non-fascist, group of national governments, with power still ultimately belonging to common people in the streets.
Americans who haven't lived here won't 'get it', but here there is very little oppression by thug courts or thug governments or thug lawyers or thug police, especially in Western Continental Europe.
Yes, there are bad moments and incidents ... but no where in the world, are things as sweet in life overall as they are here. Simon Black I think knows that.
But I think the European destination does not fit into the Simon Black - Sovereign Man marketing picture ... even though he could tell people than any American with 100K or so or maybe even half that for the frugal, could use the 'Dutch - American friendship treaty' and get EU citizenship in about 4 years of living here. And then live a good life afterwards.
European structures, banks,maybe the euro ... maybe they will be gone, yes. But it will still be a damn nice to place to live within our lifetimes. The USA I know is collapsing into fascist hell. We are not. Our people in the streets here, are the signs of our 'democracy', rather than some fraud of voting for two fake parties who really are one party.
Americans think Europe is going to fascist hell like they are, but Europeans also tend to be under the illusion Americans have some kind of reasonable non-fascist officialdom like we have here. And many here are indeed still fooled by that charlatan Obama, though they are slowly catching up.
Europe(especially EZ) has adopted much of the US ideology regarding economics, culture and entertainment. We're still shaking of remnants of Rome and heavily pumped cultural biases. Huge inequality, less so than the US though. Comparison is difficult and silly...
"Almost no one in jail"? See below.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2011/aug/19/prison-population-record-high
"very little legal or police oppression" ? See below.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/olympics/news/8958712/Military-to-help-...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/7982522/Police-officer-faci... (The Sergeant has been reinstated.)
How close is Britain to collapse? Just three days of interruption of supplies, that's all.
"
The phrase 'nine meals from anarchy' sounds more like the title of a bad Hollywood movie than any genuine threat.
But that was the expression coined by Lord Cameron of Dillington, a farmer who was the first head of the Countryside Agency - the quango set up by Tony Blair in the days when he pretended to care about the countryside - to describe just how perilous Britain's food supply actually is.
The scenario goes like this. Imagine a sudden shutdown of oil supplies; a sudden collapse in the petrol that streams steadily through the pumps and so into the engines of the lorries which deliver our food around the country, stocking up the supermarket shelves as soon as any item runs out.
If the trucks stopped moving, we'd start to worry and we'd head out to the shops, cking up our larders. By the end of Day One, if there was still no petrol, the shelves would be looking pretty thin. Imagine, then, Day Two: your fourth, fifth and sixth meal. We'd be in a panic. Day three: still no petrol.
What then? With hunger pangs kicking in, and no notion of how long it might take for the supermarkets to restock, how long before those who hadn't stocked up began stealing from their neighbours? Or looting what they could get their hands on?"
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1024833/Nine-meals-anarchy--Britain-facing-real-food-crisis.html#ixzz1iQLTcNtSDoes anyone have Simon Black's email? Or has he put out a guide on what one needs to do to move out of the country? I plan on moving to Montreal at some point 2013; I need to GTFO of this country before shit gets really bad.
That being sad, if you take up anything this year, take up coding.....its the LEAST you can do is learn more computer skills; they will be just as a necessity as learning how to grow food, have PMs for barter, and of course, owning a gun.
http://codeyear.com/
If you want to GTFO, do it in the next 3 months, AT MOST. Montreal is also a pisspoor choice - Canada and US shall be the same under the north american union, don't expect you won't be getting chipped only because you're in Canada.
And you don't want to be coming in SA when during/after TEOTWAKI and expect not to be seen as a rich gringo refugee from babylon come to try and lord it over the locals. Come now, bring much more than you need, establish something that will help the community thrive, and get your hands dirty while living on little (I live on ~12$ a day here, including lodging, and that is luxurious compared to many people). Contribute, volunter, bring skills (good point about codin) and excess tools and share around, etc. Don't even think about it if you don't speak spanish, unless if you want to go to Panama or Costa Rica which are basically U.S. anyways.
Being a rich white 1000+ acre landowner in S.A. during TEOTWAKI is about just as stupid as being a bum squatting against the fence of a FEMA camp. Latinos will fuck anybody for their family, and you ain't in it.
montreal is a lousy choice for an anglophone.
I doubt that you can email him directly but his subscriber website is http://www.sovereignman.com/
the beginning of a great adventure
I am not an American citizen, but it seems to me that what is wrong with the USA is clearly to be found in comparing and contrasting the men who signed the declaration of independence with those of recent decades who know only how to look after their own pockets and friends.
I tell you unashamedly that i wept like a baby when reading about the fate of those who signed the declaration of independence and their families. They truly were patriots with a cause.
If Americans have forgotten what principals are then I suggest you read about those men before casting your votes in the next elections.
If Ron Paul loses, and the grubby money will see to that, it will be America's loss.
i find the greatest irony in the fact that the founding fathers were libertarian in principle and the common complaint about paul is that his ideas are too radical.
I am reading their writings, now. That constitution was an amazing thing. Too bad it has been gutted by greed.
Greece threatens to leave the Euro should the rescue package be delayed - in German
I think the disintegration of Western Europe has more to do with the disintegration of socialism than Western culture. It is the extention of the collapse of Soviet Union. In post war Europe, the US provide the vital services that allowed the Western Europeans to have a socialized welfare state. This welfare state competed with the Soviet welfare state. This was a strategic decision based on the centuries old premise that "my kung fu is stronger than your kung fu". Or in other words, we wanted the Eastern Europeans coming west instead of vice versa. So the US flipped for the defense spending with 300,000 troops stationed in Europe and the ICBM deterent. And the other economic goodies, i.e. Marshall Plan, state funded health care, access to US markets etc.
What is happening now is that the Europeans have run out of physical cash to fund their welfare state. The math caught up with them like it caught up with the Soviet Union. And the only question now is when will the equivalent of the Gorbachov moment occur.
Reading anything more into the Euromess is nothing more than pseudo intellectual quackery:)
so then, how do you explain the success of germany? the socialism argument is bs. the fiat system is to blame for the pending collapse of the west.
IF socialism was responsible for Germany's success, then Cuba and North Korea would be even more successful, since they had more socialism:)
cuba is the most successful country in the carribean.
you can't have it both ways. socialism is not the cause of success or failure. the cause of success or failure is and always has been growth in the economy. when growth stops all sorts of bad things happen unless growth is resumed. it doesn't take much growth- popultaion growth plus 1 or 2% with a stable percentage of sovereign and private debt. if any part of that equation changes the rate of growth changes. europe and the usa and japan have all had changes in variables. europe and japan have zero to negative population growth and increasing personal and sovereign debt percentages. the usa still has a positive population growth rate(and lots of illegal aliens) but it has reached a wall in terms of sovereign debt and private debt. all three have an aging demographic that will require more debt to care for and fewer people who could create growth.
there has to be a fundamental reset. a reset as fundamental as ww2 for there to be a reversal of what will be decades of decline in the standard of living in the western world + japan.
Gibberish is how I would describe the above.
And I especially like the part about Cuba being the most successful country in the Carribean. You should tell that to the thousands of people who latch themselves onto rubber dingys and try to navigate to 90 miles to Florida:(
so once your argument is boxed you flail like a sissy.
My, aren't you the he-man.
I guess calling me a 'sissy' is much less intellecualy challenging than explaining why thousands of people risk life and limb to reach the US from... how did you call it.... the most successful economy in the Carribean.
BTW, hows that most successful economy in the East China Sea doing? Are condolances to your Dear Leader in order?
:)
Re But creative, thinking human beings always survive and thrive.
Bollocks!
Try, for instance, telling that to the creative, thinking human beings vaporised at Hiroshima.Dresden et al. Or maybe the 20-odd million creative, thinking human beings liquidated by Stalin.
1) New York City to become bankrupt by the end of the decade
I don't really disagree with your basic assessment, but your history has been twisted to suit your thesis that empires fall quickly.
The Roman Republic (the democracy that existed before the empire) didn't really have the legal machinery to keep generals from going to war with each other. Civil wars became so destructive, Julius Ceasar tried to stop them by becoming "dictator for life". That didn't work out for him, but his adopted son (think politcal adoption here), Octavian shortly thereafter became princeps, or emperor. The subsequent peace (Pax Romana) powered Rome to its height in about 140AD. Churchill said that the English standard of living did not eclipse the Romans unitl 1900. After the peak, things decayed very slowly: a roman citizen would not likely notice much decay in his lifetime. By 476AD Rome was Christian, and its army was made mostly of of trained mercenaries from Germanic Tribes. These same mercenaries became the Barbarian invaders when they unified against Rome. Although the Western half of the Empire disintegrated into a "Dark Age", the Eastern half flourished for 1000 more years. We call them the Byzantines, but they called themselves "Romans". Constanople didn't fall until 1453, to the invading Ottoman Turks.
This solidified the Ottoman rule over all of Islam, a religion that would not exist today without the Turkish Califate. The Ottmans reached their zenith in 1686 when they laid siege to and nearly conquered Vienna. From there their grip on Europe waned, and as they ceded territory the Austrians created the Austro-Hungarian empire out of the pieces of the retreating Ottman Empire. I was not until 1922, after a disasterous alliance with Germany in WW-I, that the Ottman Sultanate finally disappeared.
In both these case it took centuries for the empire to really fall. I would guess that's this is because there was no real alternative. Rome ruled the world, there was nowhere to turn. The barbarians couldn't maintain a civilized state of any kind. But Byzantium thrived for many centuries.
I would suggest that the current situation is world-wide and that no one will be spared in this collapse. But because its global, there will be nowhere to turn, and total collapse might take quite some time. Yes, things happen more quickly in the internet age, but with nowhere to turn people will muddle along with a badly broken goverment rather than opt for total anarchy (aka Mad Max).
Simon is a practitioner of what here in the US is called "truthy-ness".
It's how all the supposed smart people think these days:)
the difference between old empires and new empires failing is the speed of transport and communication. think bout this. the west has technically failed if not for the law of rulers. the collapse occurred in a matter of months from the peak of the debt bubble in 2007 to lehman in the fall of 2008. even with the law of rulers putting off the inevitable does anyone think the charade can last a coupla more years?
a lot of people wish this very long and complex historical process was like a computer event, with a "crash" and a "reset". IMO that's whisful thinking. this is a historical process that, granted, in the age of internet maybe different, but it's still a historical process, started decades ago, and lasting years, most likely decades into the future. it will most certainly go through faster, accelerating moments but it will not re/solve in a speedy and foreseable manner but in an unpredictable succesion of ebbs and flows, spasm, and long, inhert periods of (seemingly) empty stagnation.
Simon probably didn't do a good read of Gibbon. According to Gibbon Rome entered it's golden age after Vespasian assumed power in 69AD. This golden age lasted until the death of Marcus Aurelious in 180AD.
As to the Caudio-Julian line, yes they were pretty bad. But notice the parallel situation with ancient Rome and the US. You had Augustus who corresponds with Reagan, Caudius who corresponds very nicely with Bush senior, Tiberius as Bush Jr. and Caligula is... well you can figure that out by yourselves. (Ok, I'll give you a hint: The William Jefferson Clinton Presidential Library and Massage Parlor.) And now we got the American version of Nero. Just like Nero instigated the burning of Rome, in order to rebuild it, we got our Obamadisaster who is instigating the burning of our free market system in order to rebuild it into a socialist welfare state.
And they say history doesn't repeat itself:)
also, I don't think E. Gibbon -- and his organic version of the "rise and fall" of empires, good for XIX century science and the english empire -- is a good contemporary source for roman history, no?
First of all, I think you need to read the book. The title is the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.
As to whether it is a good or bad contemporary source, you need to post that question to the author of this post. Yes?
i am sorry, you are right, it is "the decline and fall of ...". my fault. i read it many, many years ago, when i was still using XIX century sources to learn something about XX century historiography. however, even if the title is the decline and fall, the theoretical model used by Gibbon is what was the rage at the time, the organic model of societies perceived as living plants or animals, with an infancy, adulthood, and old age. the model was so influential that still today some people (certainly not good historians) believe one can analyze societies or cultures like human bodies. also, no, history NEVER repeats itself. the "history repeats itself" is a pro status quo notion that is in fact proposing that since: "history repeats itself, there is nothing you can do to change its course". not my cup of tea really, i not only believe one can change the course of history, i DO history, every day :)
best regards.
Snake, Big Boss.
One truth will be that the housing market is still floating at the bottom (despite the media's cheerleading of the construction report). Here are the construction charts. YEECHHH!!!!!!!!!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/01/03/about-that-construction-report-from-the-census-bureau/
Dont forget about the riots...my health insurance went up 29%, and that's for the HIGH deductable.
People can't take this shit much longer.
Unreal.
There is just ONE EXPLANATION for what the AUTHOR tries to lament about and that is
The USA ..like the UK before that .. wanted and pulled through a FREE RIDE on those countries it PRETENDED to be in ALLIANCE with .... showeling PRINTED PAPER down the throats of the socalled partners in effect NOTHING for the labour and sweat of those partners.
It wants to continue to do so .. and for a long time it succeeded in continuing this FRAUD
BUT NOW IT IS OVER !
I really like it when I can see "Submitted by Simon Black from Sovereign Man" at the top of the post. Saves me lots of time and irritation.
I see a whole lotta shakin' goin on in Chile. Not my idea of a safe spot, seismically speaking.
the american empire has run its course....it is running on fumes....even if it is the beast of revelation it is finished as a free land and will act out its final days as a savage brutal monster spreading murder and mayhem in its last gasps and grasps for total control....