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Guest Post: Endgame: When Debt Is Fraud, Debt Forgiveness Is The Last And Only Remedy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith from Of Two Minds.

Today I present an important guest essay by long-time contributor Zeus Yiamouyiannis, who suggests that when debt is essentially fraudulent, then debt forgiveness is both the logical and the only remedy.



Endgame: When Debt is Fraud, Debt Forgiveness is the Last and Only Remedy, by Zeus Yiamouyiannis, Ph.D., copyright 2011.

Introduction

Finally serious economists are considering a position I have been maintaining and writing about since the 2008 financial meltdown. Whatever its name— erasure, repudiation, abolishment, cancellation, jubilee—debt forgiveness, will have to eventually emerge forefront in global efforts to solve an ongoing systemic financial crisis.

“On a grand scale the only way to erase counterfeit money and (counterfeit) assets of hundreds of trillions of dollars is to erase the debts associated with those fake assets. (Let me underscore again, these are not “toxic” assets, they are fake assets.)… Forgiveness in general, and forgiveness of debt in particular, stand as virtues if they free us up to acknowledge, address, and learn from our culpability, start anew, and create forward.” (The Big Squeeze, Part 3: The Quiet Rebellion: Civil Disobedience, Local Markets, and Debt Erasure (January 29, 2011)

Debt forgiveness, therefore, accomplishes two important things. It eliminates the increasing and outsized portion of productive enterprise to pay off unproductive obligations, and it clears the ground for new opportunities, new thinking, invention, and entrepreneurialism. This is why the ability to declare bankruptcy is so essential in the pursuit of both happiness and innovation.

Currently we are mired in a “new normal” and calls for “austerity” which are nothing more than the delusional efforts of a status quo to avoid the consequences of its own error and fraud and to profit evermore. So bedazzled by the false wealth created by debt multiplication and its concomitant fantasy of ever-higher returns, this status quo continues to be stupidly amazed that people are not spending and that the economy is not picking up. But how could it be otherwise?

Productive wealth has been trapped in a web of parasitic theft, counterfeiting, liability evasion, non-regulation, and prosecutorial non-accountability. All the fundamental attributes of a functioning exchange economy have been warped to reward creative criminals. I spoke extensively about this in my posts from 2008. (Imaginary Worth, Empire of Debt: How Modern Finance Created Its Own Downfall (October 15, 2008)

The unsustainable nature of debt

Two observations: 1) Fabricated/parasitic so-called “wealth” destroys value by diluting the value of productive wealth. 2) Debt/credit that cannot be paid back is never an asset and is always a hot-potato liability (needing to be foisted to a greater fool to garner “profit” and transaction fees):

“The models [modern debt are] based upon had no contact with reality. They assumed unlimited growth and ability to pay. When matched against the reality of people paying ten times their salary for mortgages that actually added more money owed to their principal (i.e. with negative amortization), required no money down, and set up “balloon payments,” large step-ups in payments after a few years) there is no possible way they could NOT default in a predictable span of time.” (Part II: How the Credit Default Swap Scam Works (October 13, 2008)

Systemically, all debt that charges a percentage (“usury”) originates in delusion. Debt grows exponentially indefinitely, growth (income and otherwise) cannot. This leads to a widening condition where the fruits of productive “growth” devoted to interest payments increase until those fruits are entirely consumed. (The Elephant In The Room: Debt Grows Exponentially, While Economies Only Grow In An S-Curve (Washington's Blog)

Once this happens, stores of wealth (hard assets) begin to be cannibalized to make up for the difference. You see this in Greece with its sale of public assets to private companies, and in middle-class America where people are liquidating retirement accounts to pay for their cost of living.

This problem is compounded by a private Federal Reserve that lends money into circulation at interest, and then allows the multiplication of this consumer debt-money liability through fractional reserve banking. The money in circulation today could pay only a small fraction of the total private and public debt. That fact alone is evidence of a kind of systemic fraud. “If you just work hard enough, save, and make sensible decisions, you can get out of debt” could only physically work for a bare fraction of the population, given the money-to-debt ratio. The rest would have to simply default to clear the boards.

This is why debt forgiveness makes not only moral but rational, mathematical sense. Finances require balancing to be coherent. There must be some way to redress systemic imbalance. One has to be able to “zero the scales” to get an accurate weight of value and to re-establish healthy value creation.

Voices in the debate

Some analysts are beginning to see the forest through the trees in terms of debt forgiveness. Steve Keen, Australian economist and current deflationist, and Michael Hudson, American economic contrarian and prescient essayist, are both using clear-sighted reality-based financial analysis to debunk accounting games that obscure the untenable debt situation and to call for debt forgiveness.

How can selling sovereign assets and imposing austerity on Greek citizens (taking money out of their hands through higher taxes and lower benefits) do anything other than hollow out value and contract the Greek economy in the face of a deep global recession? Michael Hudson: It can’t. Greece’s debt needs to be written off.

“It seems unreasonable and unrealistic to expect that large sectors of the New European population can be made subject to salary garnishment throughout their lives, reducing them to a lifetime of debt peonage… (T)he only way to resolve it is to negotiate a debt write-off…” (The Coming European Debt Wars: EU Countries sinking into Depression (Michael Hudson, Global Research, April 9, 2010)

("[We’ll Have] a Never-Ending Depression Unless We Repudiate the Debt, Which Never Should Have Been Extended In The First Place" (Washington's Blog)

Why isn’t “quantitative easing” and flooding the U.S. economy with debt-money working to prime borrowing and lending? Steve Keen: Because the money is going into deleveraging in a time of overextension:

“Bernanke is throwing (a) trillion dollars into the system. Rather than that leading to ten trillion dollars of additional credit money, creating the inflation people are expecting, that trillion dollars is all that goes in, and people deleveraging actually reduce their level of spending by more than a trillion dollars by trying to pay their debt down, and it cancels out what the government is trying to do… We need a 21st century jubilee.” (On the Edge with . . . Steve Keen (Max Keiser, video)

Other well-known commentators are not seeing the debt forest at all. In their contentious debates over deflation and inflation, neither Rick Ackerman nor Gonzalo Lira seem to be aware of the overwhelmingly fraudulent nature of present global debt-- including the 600 to 1,000 trillion dollars of fabricated notional wealth represented by the derivatives markets, fraudclosure, and a host of other sources.

Rick Ackerman: “’Ultimately, every penny of every debt must be paid — if not by the borrower, then by the lender.’ Inflationists and deflationists implicitly agree on this point… and we differ only on the question of who, borrower or lender, will take the hit.” (Let’s Think This Through Together....)

I posted a pithy response in the comment section:

“Both Rick and Gonzalo left out the obvious third way--debt forgiveness. No… debt does not have to be paid by someone; it can be absolved, especially debt created upon fraudulent and/or counterfeit-ridden practice… (D)erivatives are not real wealth, and neither was the ostensible climb in the values of housing resting in large part on those phony-wealth derivatives.

The only “real wealth” here revolves around ability to produce real and needed goods (to allow us to survive), and the ability to create something that increases one’s quality of life (to promote our thriving). Precious little of the present global economy involves either one of these. Yeah, if we use FASB standards and Goldman Sachs accounting, we can pretend our worthless junk is all really simply very rare, “unique condition” collectibles worth trillions of dollars.

I’ve got a better idea. Take our financial junk out of the global attic in boxes, put them out on the front lawn, and see if anyone wants to pay a few bucks for the various items, give away the leftovers to anyone interested passing on the sidewalk, and recycle, donate, or dispose of the rest. It’s a moving sale, and if our economy is going to get moving, maybe we ought to have one.” (Zeus Yiamouyiannis April 6, 2011 at 4:11 pm)

How it might play out

This subtle debt extortion creates a system of never-ending debt-slavery for a vast majority of the population. When this “manageable” slavery is aggravated by a desire to use hardship to extort ever greater assets from the overburdened at ever cheaper prices (what Naomi Klein calls “disaster capitalism”), by open and unapologetic widespread fraud, and by the unjust offloading of risk and liability to taxpayers who had nothing to do with poor decisions of private banks, then the systemic abuse is revealed in the daily lives of citizens.

Debt creates scarcity, which stimulates fear, which drives manic competition, which favors opportunism, collusion, and concentrations of power, which translates to abuse, which results in a collapse of legitimacy for the economic system. Overreach causes a breaking point, and we are getting close to it. Will the response be warfare, taxpayer revolt, political upheaval, mass default, debt forgiveness, something other, some combination? I have predicted pockets of violence would be mixed with some softer combination of taxpayer revolt, mass default, political upheaval, and debt forgiveness, along with a return to community exchange to meet basic needs. (The Big Squeeze, Part 3: The Quiet Rebellion: Civil Disobedience, Local Markets, and Debt Erasure (January 29, 2011)

This possibility of epic reprisal may very well compel banks to come to the table around debt forgiveness to avoid violent backlash and criminal prosecution, even over preserving their gravy train companies. The bitter irony of these companies and their galloping greed is that they ended up victimizing each other by selling junk to each other and extracting all the real value in salary and bonuses. Their assets rest on notional values, that when unmasked would drive each into immediate insolvency. They have simply been scam artists, producing little value and extracting mountains of money.

What might this look like? Looking at present trends and using the very useful framework of Kubler-Ross’s stages of grief, it might go something like this…

Average debtor:

1) Denial: Liquidate savings to pay for over-priced house and cost of living.
2) Anger and fear: Exhaust resources, experience want, compounded by austerity measures.
3) Bargaining: Attempt to negotiate with bank through HAMP and other mechanisms to lower payments. Banks don 't bite and even have incentives to foreclose.
4) Depression: Lose/default on the house and move in with family or cheap rental.
5) Find out life is better without being a debt slave and spend more time with community and the ones you love.

Bankers:

1) Denial: Collect 144 billion in bonuses after financial collapse and laugh as not a single trading day loss arises for zombie TBTF banks completely subsidized by governments.
2) Anger: Express false righteousness, indignation, and hubris over even modest/toothless demands/regulations attempted to be placed on them by governments. Exhibit sadistic zeal at being able to simply claim you own and liquidate properties they have no clear title to.
3) Bargaining: Experience dawning awareness that may have just cooked your own gooses as strategic defaults skyrocket, populist demands to prosecute fraudclosure gain traction, and quantitative easing ad infinitum dwindles and fails to keep stock prices artificially aloft. Improvise panicked attempts to "be reasonable" and actually negotiate, once the asset and money flow well runs dry.
4) Depression: Contemplate and realize possible bankruptcy by big banks. Retreat to the Hamptons to hire criminal defense lawyers, contemplate empty life, and shoulder the abuse of media and contempt of a global citizenry.
5) Acceptance: Trying to regain "good guy" status and avoid criminal prosecution by agreeing to be part of debt forgiveness.

Once defaults happen in increasing numbers and certain asset prices plunge (i.e. real estate), what will initially look like a bonanza for capitalist parasites could easily get out of hand, with people either unable or unwilling to buy inventory even at greatly reduced prices. Profits would tank at banks, liabilities would skyrocket even with most of it transferred to government guarantee. Because no one plays the game anymore, banks could go under as well, as people rise to vote out bank-friendly politicians and simply refuse to pay. This unraveling could easily force exposure of the notional value of derivatives in banks as worthless, meaning they are as bankrupt as the people they exploited. At this point, there will be a common desire and need to simply "forgive" the debts and try to find some way to distribute these empty homes.

Conclusion

Debt forgiveness simply calls out either the inherent systemic inability to make good on debts or the recognition that debt was produced through fraudulent means. In the present situation, both conditions obtain. There has likely been no point in world history where debt forgiveness has been so comprehensively merited. The only speculation from my point (barring world-wide global feudalism and eternal debt slavery) is whether we will initiate such forgiveness or be forced into it.



Thank you, Zeus, for this prescient and insightful analysis of debt and debt renunciation.The Kondratieff Cycle can only turn to Spring after debt renunciation completes the Winter cycle. Let's stop pretending we're still in Summer, and that the Fed's puny "quantitative easing" and monetary cargo-cult machinations can reverse the seasons.

 

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Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:16 | 1623395 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

one of the finest articles from zh this year.....debt forgiveness means someone will take a haircut and that is consistent with moral hazard...ye shall know the truth and the truth shall set you free.....free yourselves from the lies of extend and pretend...own up to the buckets of horseshit infesting the body politic and economic and pave the way to a new future....ring out the manure and fraudulent accounting and economics with a jubilee....proclaim the year of freedom; let righteousness blossom across the land....

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:19 | 1623405 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Zeus Yiamouyiannis for secretary of treasury under Ron Paul.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:21 | 1623407 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Like a house, garage, or shed that has rottted from the inside out, the econom,y and present day capitalism needs a total reset, a total gutting to start anew. Bankrupties will continue to increase. The Fed and gov. must agree to lower interest rates for a starter on home loans, but it won't be enough. They will need to reduce principle also.  Glass Steagull needs to return, and. banks need to be allowed to fail. Student loans will be defaulted upon until interest rates are lowered, and  principles reduced. Lobbying needs to be contained. Right or wrong, it makes no different. It is simply math, and if these issues are not resolved through the system, then they will be resolved in spite of the system.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:48 | 1623485 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Or the correct and just thing can happen and the bondholders take their haircuts and home speculators and over-reachers take up residence under the freeway overpass.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:26 | 1623425 Breaker
Breaker's picture

The only thing missing from the analysis is the true beneficiary of all the acceptance, denial stuff. An overwhelmingly powerful government that has used this crisis to become (already) half again as large and powerful as it was at the beginning of the crisis. That includes the executive, congress, and the administrative agencies--all of whom are going to come out of this even bigger and more powerful than they are now. Yes, some bankers got big bonuses. But that occurred because our government has the power to make risk public and benefits private and because the bankers paid the politicians to do so. Yes, some pension funds controlled by unions are going to lose less than other pension funds because they paid the government to make it so. In the end, the last one standing will be our rulers. The rest are bit players raised and destroyed by the government.

The problem is a government that can do too much and the folks who pay it to do so.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:26 | 1623428 dcb
dcb's picture

absolved debpt is paid for by the lender!!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:45 | 1623481 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

In today's world of moral hazard ad infinitum, that "lender" is you and me!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:29 | 1623439 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

Iceland bitchez

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:32 | 1623449 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Understanding the problem implies the solutions are obvious. The the obvious solutions are not being implemented which means that a corrupt system is preventing the solutions from being implemented. That being clear then it is obvious that the corrupt system must first be corrected.

Good Luck with that!

I wish I could help, but it is not yet time when good men are wanted. People still like being lied to more than they want to do what is right and necessary. Good men would just be wasting themselves unnecessarily.

Hopefully the right time will come during my lifetime... but maybe not. 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:32 | 1623450 Elmer Fudd
Elmer Fudd's picture

Debt forgiveness? I give that low probability.  Because the holders of debt believe they have ASSETS and aren't going to just mark them down, and lose the cash flow.  Printing money is stealthier and spreads the misery to everyone.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:33 | 1623453 chaartist
chaartist's picture

Debt forgivness..Its nice and simple idea, but it will never ever happen in this interconnected infinity derivatives bubble. The debt is the only thing that they have on hand, fiat money is debt, so do not expect them to change their way until they are forced by rioters to flee their holes.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:47 | 1623483 walküre
walküre's picture

Right and in addition to that, the banking cartel which committed the fraud is aided and abetted by a populace that actually firmly believes they did the right thing by living "responsible" and saving. They're looking at their own "net worth" first and will side with the lenders, hoping the game will continue forever. They will gang up and blame the dirty, rotten spenders who lived "beyond their means" and should not have borrowed to buy the things they couldn't afford. Of course that group doesn't want to hear that if it weren't for the "frivolous" spenders, there wouldn't have been this fantastic economy which allowed the savers to build up their "networth".

Yes, it is really all that connected and that simple.

There are thieves and there are thieves and there are the enablers of thieves.

Is someone stupid for spending into oblivion? Or is somebody smarter for "creating" leverage and "creating" money out of thin air?

History will be the judge, I guess.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:50 | 1623476 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

The big criminals at TBTF are no worse than the small fry zero down, no doc, liar loan burgerflipper "buying" a $750k mcmansion.  Let them both rot in hell!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 16:02 | 1623532 walküre
walküre's picture

Where's the money that was profited from the once worth 750k McMansion?

Let me ask you this, is the individual who bought the McMansion and shouldn't have not a better person than the individual who sold several of those overpriced doghouses and is now living on the beach some place and sailing into the sunset.

It's all bogus, you know. Why is the poor slob on the hook for the money that thought he could live the dream but in the end, will just go back to flippin' burgers and living in a shack.

I have symphathy for that poor slob. I have no sympathy for the crooks who live the high life off someone else and don't want to consider a debt forgiveness. That's inhumane. We treat animals better than that.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 16:17 | 1623576 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Fraud is fraud.  Liars are liars.  Most of the small fry risked nothing and left the public holding the tab as they default then sit for 18+ months rent free.  They are just like the TBTF scum bags and, in fact, partners in crime.  You will get no sympathy from me ... honest and prudent Joe public who never played the game but are left holding the bag.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 16:46 | 1623663 walküre
walküre's picture

Ok, the government is broke. The bag is empty.

They can ask Joe public for higher taxes or some other way to contribute to the debt burden, but it's impossible.

So in the end, Joe public missed the boat and didn't spend or make $$ huge profits but now Joe public will continue his boring life.

Where's the problem? I think Joe public is just going to remain good ole' boring Joe public.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:39 | 1623779 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Or the economy can collapse while Joe shorts the banks and/or buys foreclosed homes at fire sale prices all the while beaming with shadenfreude as he sails off in his $1 million yacht bought at a bank sale for $50k cash.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:48 | 1623891 walküre
walküre's picture

When the economy collapses, so does the currency. The savers will lose and will not get to collect either.

There is no pot of gold at the end of that rainbow. Sorry, play again!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:05 | 1623950 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I know that you don't know 100% how it will play out and neither do I.  We are entering uncertain waters, that is for sure.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:21 | 1623784 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Most of the truly fraudulent buyers/financers were RE speculators looking for a quick buck.  They're going to lose money, but they already had homes.

There were definitely individuals who used bad data to apply for loans for a primary residence, but most of the folks who are facing foreclosure are people who lost their jobs, or didn't understand their contracts, or had other financial problems.

We'll be better off as a country when 50 million Americans are homeless, I'm sure.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:26 | 1623808 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Most of those in foreclosure put little or nothing down and ended up with free rent after they sent in their jingle mail.  They will now find themselves where they started (and probably belong) ... renting.  BFD

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:49 | 1623892 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Nah, the banks can't forclose on most of the properties 'cause they have no documentation.  They'll live rent-free for years while the banks petition government for a legislative solution.

BFD.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:10 | 1623960 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Like I said ... zero sympathy for freeloaders

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:24 | 1624011 Willzyx
Willzyx's picture

I understand zero sympathy, but you seem to want to see them squirm.  Based on your earlier post, you actually want to be the one to make them squirm.  Not just that, but you want to profit from their squirming.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:52 | 1623904 walküre
walküre's picture

You're forgetting "predatory lending" in the true sense of the word.

People were inticed to take the loans. Not quite forced at gunpoint but the lending sharks giving easy money to everyone with a heartbeat only to collect their upfront fees and then walk away.

The economy of the last decade after 9/11 was based on complete fraud. Before that, I'm not sure.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:17 | 1623987 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Loan salesmen are like sharks and worse than used car salesmen.  Ever heard of the idea of taking responsibility for one's actions (including one's stupidity)? 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:58 | 1624646 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Taking responsibility for oneself in some of these case means stopping mortgage payments and dealing with foreclosure.  You sure you want to invoke that kind of language?

One thing's for sure: folks losing their homes aren't going to weep for BAC.  Anyway, as long as the bankers take responsibility for their shitty loans, it'll all work out.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 16:38 | 1623492 Bob
Bob's picture

Charles, that was sheer beauty.  One hundred prostrations from me for this one.

EDIT: Ooops, looks you you didn't write it, man!  Nice to know there are such people out there to aspire to, though.  Thanks for doing your part, Charles!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 16:00 | 1623523 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

As far as I can tell, the only thing that happened negativly to someone filing a "liar loan", was that they didn't get the loan.

 

I guess that is better then giving them the loan and everyone else paying for it when they defaulted.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 16:02 | 1623531 Lazane
Lazane's picture

default has already occurred by way of the value of the dollar

 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 16:08 | 1623553 Era Vulgaris
Era Vulgaris's picture

More and more people that I know are reaching stage 5:

Find out life is better without being a debt slave and spend more time with community and the ones you love.

Whether there's large scale debt forgiveness or not- debt which can't be paid won't be paid.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 16:15 | 1623579 ddtuttle
ddtuttle's picture

I'm surprised that so many readers of this blog don't understand this possibility better.

1.  The banks have NOT had their debts repudiated.  We are doing everything in our power to PRESERVE the debt, and even add to it.  If banks don't add to it, the gov will.

2. A debt jubilee is NOT a made up idea.  It has been done before. Its in the Bible, for cris' sakes.

3. A mortgage holder OWNS his house legally (he holds the title and pays the taxes).  Repudiation of the mortgage means the owner just stops paying his mortgage, but not his taxes.  He wons the house free and clear.  This will really help solve the SS problem: boomers will retire on the wealth stored in their now solvent homes. 

4. The banks loose all their loans and all the income from interest payments, but not their deposits.  From there they can rebuild their business by loaning against their deposits again.  One would hope a little more responsibly.

5. If you were 'smart enough' to pay your debts, you don't get much from this, but you don't really loose anything either.  Your savings will be intact (insted of destroyed by inflation).  If you won your home outright, you will continue to own it.

6. Finally, the banks will begin lending against their deposits, stimulating business and the economy in a healthy way.

7.  In a globalized economy, this would have to be undertaken world-wide on the same day.  This way goverments can repudiate their debts to each other as well.  Anyone who doesn't participate will be at a disadvantage due to their ongoing debt service.

8.  This is PROBABLY the only option the world has.  The debts and derivatives are so humongous and dangerous, that the other three alternatives (pay it off, default on it, inflate our way out) actually won't work.  This is the only way out.  

9.  Politically, this seems impossible, and it will take time for politicians to realize that this is not only the best alternative, its the ONLY alternative.

10.  Obviously, we would have to reform the banking system so it doesn't just do the same thing all over again. At least not for a couple hundred years.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 16:55 | 1623691 glokk26L
glokk26L's picture

It didn't work well with the Constitution, it was implemented and only went for what, a hundred years before the slicing turned into all out gutting?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 16:56 | 1623696 LucyLulu
LucyLulu's picture

"2. A debt jubilee is NOT a made up idea.  It has been done before. Its in the Bible, for cris' sakes."

If I recall correctly, the Old Testament speaks of holding debt jubilees every seven years.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:26 | 1624019 Willzyx
Willzyx's picture

With biblical medical technology, most people wouldn't live long enough to pay off a 30 year mortgage. 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 16:52 | 1623685 LucyLulu
LucyLulu's picture

"3) Bargaining: Experience dawning awareness that may have just cooked your own gooses as strategic defaults skyrocket, populist demands to prosecute fraudclosure gain traction, and quantitative easing ad infinitum dwindles and fails to keep stock prices artificially aloft. Improvise panicked attempts to "be reasonable" and actually negotiate, once the asset and money flow well runs dry.
4) Depression: Contemplate and realize possible bankruptcy by big banks. Retreat to the Hamptons to hire criminal defense lawyers, contemplate empty life, and shoulder the abuse of media and contempt of a global citizenry."

I see the lenders in this scenario moving from #3 to #4 right now, with the agreement between BAC and NYB falling apart, and the NY and NV attorney generals refusing to sign onto the 50 state settlement, inititating their own suits and investigations, and with opposition also voiced by a few other state AG's, are a sign that no agreement is forthcoming.  In particular, the recent NV suit explicitly charges the failure to transfer loans into the securitizations, which when exposed once and for all that the boxes are empty, will bring down Humpty Dumpty.  And all the bank's, er, I mean king's, men won't be able to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.     

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:12 | 1623742 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

Terminology:

 - Jubilee = repudiation: when enough folks are annoyed to the degree they walk away from their debts giving their creditors the finger, that is called a 'jubilee'.

 - Jubilee = also known as 'restructuring' where portions if not all debts are 'written off' and left unpaid. This was once a significant aspect of bankrupcty including the 'restructuring' the principal amounts of mortgage in a process called a 'cram-down'. Bankruptcy 'reform' in 2005 ended this leaving debtors in the position where they have no choice by to repudiate and walk away.

 - Jubilee = what will happen automatically along with margin calls and non-linear deleveraging after a slightly longer period of time doing nothing on the part of creditors and regulators.

Jubilee, coming to your town, ready or not ...

 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:11 | 1623745 illyia
illyia's picture

Best article ever.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:24 | 1623798 aerial view
aerial view's picture

Debt forgiveness for who-everyone or just the banksters? What message does that send to those who gamed the system? Haven't the big banks essentially received debt forgiveness via bailouts and 0% interest rates? Will this really stop the pyschopathic elite from their evils or just encourage them to continue??? 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:33 | 1623827 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...sacrifice Christ to sustain those that are sealed by the mark of the beast? LOL. Imagine that, trying to divest from the black hole you are sealed in, because you accepted the offer, by sacrificing the Truth and slaughtering anyone who didn't fall for temptation. Pathetic.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:45 | 1623882 twotraps
twotraps's picture

Absolutely awesome article, learned as much about the topic through the comments as well.   This is what makes zerohedge great.......now, what does anyone think about playing the banking sector should debt forgiveness take hold?  I have seemed like the  Village Idiot talking to people about how 'value' is in question and that the biggest problem the govt has is keeping up the illusion that their giant Pretend Account really means something.  Do I think they give a shit...No.  I think they treat it as a PR problem.........I don't fully understand all the accounting that goes on, I just know that one day the mkt catches up with and re-prices itself in a big way.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:53 | 1623910 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Investment in that sector has nothing to do with analyzing value and everything to do with betting on future government policy.

It's hard to "value" vacuum.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:41 | 1624224 T-Bond
T-Bond's picture

Timing it will be even harder.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:30 | 1624568 twotraps
twotraps's picture

Agree.   I mean 'value' in the general sense in light of all the intervention, law-breaking-accounting holidays-suspended from reality markets.  Not necessarily the value of any one bank from their numbers, whhich are laughable at best and bunch of fucking lies at worst.  I don't agree with all the intervention but it has bought the govt the most expensive commodity ever....Time, and they are blowing that because since the big bailout, very little has been accomplished, so I expect the mkt to adjust at some point.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:01 | 1624655 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Have one of the Senate Finance Committee's hookers on your speeddial, and check in with her regularly.  I assume that'd be the best way to figure when/how to jump in to bank stocks.

Sat, 09/03/2011 - 17:05 | 1629995 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

And sooner or later when to jump out the window

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:57 | 1623922 walküre
walküre's picture

How do you play any sector in a jubilee scenario?

About everything takes a hair cut including your portfolio made up of what ever shorts or inverse etfs you're holding.

Only thing that doesn't take a hair cut are precious metals. Sure, their paper value will probably decline but depending on how it plays out the value may actually rise. In any event, the store of wealth is in precious metals for protection.

Imagine the derivative bubble bursting. Gold prices would possibly skyrocket at that time.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 17:51 | 1623902 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

Debt forgiveness is merely the solution. The problem, as the article aptly points out, is the cavalcade of fraud that allowed debt to give rise to the illusion of wealth. Doing so was purposeful, deceptive and bound to fail.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:33 | 1624039 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Your forgot something; it was completely predictable.  History has a way of repeating itself.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:38 | 1624214 T-Bond
T-Bond's picture

Well said.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 18:37 | 1624048 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Any so called "jubilee" scenario would place the value of debt at exactly zero which implies interest rates to infinity.  In other words, credit will no longer be available or maybe available to a very select few who don't really need it anyway.  Not exactly a solution to keep an economy based on consumption alive!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:17 | 1624153 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Yes do it do it, if they do it it would free up so much money and energy from going into bottomless pits.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:34 | 1624204 T-Bond
T-Bond's picture

By the time this financial mess ends/blows, there will have been events and measures taken that no one saw coming. One thing for sure, it will not end well.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 19:34 | 1624205 Market Efficien...
Market Efficiency Romantic's picture

Great interview with an economic anthropologist re debt, its historic origin and the historic handling of excess indeptedness, debt forgiveness, to maintain a society.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/08/what-is-debt-%E2%80%93-an-intervi...

 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:07 | 1624375 AndreiC
AndreiC's picture

Debt forgiveness? Did you know that the average Greek railway worker makes  about 7200 USD per month?

There aren't only a few banksters who have profited from the fake debt-money. Millions of Europeans and millions of Americans did.

As a thrifty person, why would I want all these people to be forgiven? This only validates their foolish choices and means that my efforts towards self-sustainability and honest wealth growth are stupid and not a real way in life.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:04 | 1624662 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

We better do something right for a change - this plane has stalled and Capt'n Bernank has pulled the nose up - gulp!  Instead of watching "Survivor", we'll be doing the real thing.  In the coming years, there won't be a fat person in the US of A.  Was in Vietnam and saw only one slightly pudgy Vietnamese.  Weight Watchers would have had to have one hell of a marketing department to make money in that society!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:14 | 1624698 Hayabusa
Hayabusa's picture

You know how it is when you know something's wrong with the picture, but cannot define exactly what it is... well not anymore.  I've read a lot of good stuff here on zerohedge, but consider this one to be one of the most informative and candid I've ever had the opportunity to peruse.  It's no fun reading it, but the truth is staring you in the face and no matter how far or fast you try to run away from the horrible truth and how we've all been swindled you cannot escape.  Outstanding article IMHO.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 22:14 | 1624700 Hayabusa
Hayabusa's picture

You know how it is when you know something's wrong with the picture, but cannot define exactly what it is... well not anymore.  I've read a lot of good stuff here on zerohedge, but consider this one to be one of the most informative and candid I've ever had the opportunity to peruse.  It's no fun reading it, but the truth is staring you in the face and no matter how far or fast you try to run away from the horrible truth and how we've all been swindled you cannot escape.  Outstanding article IMHO.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 00:33 | 1625169 plateada
plateada's picture

hey....finally an intelligent being out there....

are you cute as well?

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 00:41 | 1625185 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Can some one tell me the difference between 'debt forgiveness' and the lender paying the debt?

The lender paying the debt is an involuntary act.

'Debt forgiveness' has a ring of voluntariness about it. I see older men in ties and wrinkled white shirts but no jackets hugging each other. I hear soft sobbing. I see eyes welling up with tears.

Excuse me. I'm getting emotional. I have to go now.

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 08:03 | 1625565 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

when the Mayans had their jubilees once every 52 years (analogous in time to the K-cycle actually), they extinguished all light for 3 days/nights and started anew.   not to say it worked as they collapsed as well, but simply to say that jubilee may come, but not in the way you think it will.   something to chew on:

http://halfpasthuman.com/PMF.html

Fri, 09/02/2011 - 15:13 | 1627464 johnjb32
johnjb32's picture
Debt repudiation is becoming a very clear and essential step if we are to prevent the carnage and waste that is coming. Because the global debt-burden will see to it that fields lay fallow, that machines don't run, that food doesn't get moved but thrown out and that people starve while they could have been eating. But that would be only a first step. because without eliminating fractional reserve banking, compound interest and fiat currency all you'd do is start the madness all over again.   This guy must have seen Collapse. He even used Elizabeth Kubler Ross' five stages of grief. -- Michael C. Ruppert http://www.collapsenet.com/154.html
Fri, 09/02/2011 - 17:57 | 1628210 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

"is start the madness all over again."

No. I think the Inner Party/TPTB have a different plan next time around.

It's not going to be to everyone's taste.

What is?

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