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Guest Post: Extend And Pretend Coming To An End

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform,

 

The real world revolves around cash flow. Families across the land understand this basic concept. Cash flows in from wages, investments and these days from the government. Cash flows out for food, gasoline, utilities, cable, cell phones, real estate taxes, income taxes, payroll taxes, clothing, mortgage payments, car payments, insurance payments, medical bills, auto repairs, home repairs, appliances, electronic gadgets, education, alcohol (necessary in this economy) and a countless other everyday expenses. If the outflow exceeds the inflow a family may be able to fund the deficit with credit cards for awhile, but ultimately running a cash flow deficit will result in debt default and loss of your home and assets. Ask the millions of Americans that have experienced this exact outcome since 2008 if you believe this is only a theoretical exercise. The Federal government, Federal Reserve, Wall Street banks, regulatory agencies and commercial real estate debtors have colluded since 2008 to pretend cash flow doesn’t matter. Their plan has been to “extend and pretend”, praying for an economic recovery that would save them from their greedy and foolish risk taking during the 2003 – 2007 Caligula-like debauchery.

I wrote an article called Extend and Pretend is Wall Street’s Friend about one year ago where I detailed what I saw as the moneyed interest’s master plan to pretend that hundreds of billions in debt would be repaid, despite the fact that declining developer cash flow and plunging real estate prices would make that impossible. Here are a couple pertinent snippets from that article:

“A systematic plan to create the illusion of stability and provide no-risk profits to the mega-Wall Street banks was implemented in early 2009 and continues today. The plan was developed by Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner and the CEOs of the criminal Wall Street banking syndicate. The plan has been enabled by the FASB, SEC, IRS, FDIC and corrupt politicians in Washington D.C. This master plan has funneled hundreds of billions from taxpayers to the banks that created the greatest financial collapse in world history.

Part two of the master cover-up plan has been the extending of commercial real estate loans and pretending that they will eventually be repaid. In late 2009 it was clear to the Federal Reserve and the Treasury that the $1.2 trillion in commercial loans maturing between 2010 and 2013 would cause thousands of bank failures if the existing regulations were enforced. The Treasury stepped to the plate first. New rules at the IRS weren’t directly related to banking, but allowed commercial loans that were part of investment pools known as Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits, or REMICs, to be refinanced without triggering tax penalties for investors.

The Federal Reserve, which is tasked with making sure banks loans are properly valued, instructed banks throughout the country to “extend and pretend” or “amend and pretend,” in which the bank gives a borrower more time to repay a loan. Banks were “encouraged” to modify loans to help cash strapped borrowers. The hope was that by amending the terms to enable the borrower to avoid a refinancing that would have been impossible, the lender would ultimately be able to collect the balance due on the loan. Ben and his boys also pushed banks to do “troubled debt restructurings.” Such restructurings involved modifying an existing loan by changing the terms or breaking the loan into pieces. Bank, thrift and credit-union regulators very quietly gave lenders flexibility in how they classified distressed commercial mortgages. Banks were able to slice distressed loans into performing and non-performing loans, and institutions were able to magically reduce the total reserves set aside for non-performing loans.

If a mall developer has 40% of their mall vacant and the cash flow from the mall is insufficient to service the loan, the bank would normally need to set aside reserves for the entire loan. Under the new guidelines they could carve the loan into two pieces, with 60% that is covered by cash flow as a good loan and the 40% without sufficient cash flow would be classified as non-performing. The truth is that billions in commercial loans are in distress right now because tenants are dropping like flies. Rather than writing down the loans, banks are extending the terms of the debt with more interest reserves included so they can continue to classify the loans as “performing.” The reality is that the values of the property behind these loans have fallen 43%. Banks are extending loans that they would never make now, because borrowers are already grossly upside-down.”

Master Plan Malfunction

You have to admire the resourcefulness of the vested interests in disguising disaster and pretending that time will alleviate the consequences of their insatiable greed, blatant criminality and foolish risk taking. Extending bad loans and pretending they will be repaid does not create the cash flow necessary to actually pay the interest and principal on the debt. The chart below reveals the truth of what happened between 2005 and 2008 in the commercial real estate market. There was an epic feeding frenzy of overbuilding shopping centers, malls, office space, industrial space and apartments. During the sane 1980’s and 1990’s, commercial real estate loan issuance stayed consistently in the $500 billion to $700 billion range. The internet boom led to a surge to $1.1 trillion in 2000, with the resultant pullback to $900 billion by 2004. But thanks to easy Al and helicopter Ben, the bubble was re-inflated with easy money and zero regulatory oversight. Commercial real estate loan issuance skyrocketed to $1.6 trillion per year by 2008. Bankers sure have a knack for doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing at the exact wrong time. They doled out a couple trillion of loans to delusional developers at peak prices just prior to a historic financial cataclysm.

The difference between bad retail mortgage loans and bad commercial loans is about 25 years. Commercial real estate loans usually have five to seven year maturities. This meant that an avalanche of loans began maturing in 2010 and will not peak until 2013. With $1.2 trillion of loans coming due between 2010 and 2013, disaster for the Wall Street Too Big To Fail banks awaited if the properties were valued honestly. A perfect storm of declining property values and plunging cash flows for developers should have resulted in enormous losses for Wall Street banks and their shareholders, resulting in executives losing not only their obscene bonuses but even their jobs. Imagine the horror for the .01%.

The fact is that commercial property prices are currently 42% below the 2007 – 2008 peak. The slight increase in the national index is solely due to strong demand for apartments, as millions of Americans have been kicked out of their homes by Wall Street bankers using fraudulent loan documentation to foreclose on them. The national index has recently resumed its fall. Industrial and retail properties are leading the descent in prices according to Moodys. The master plan of extend and pretend was implemented in 2009 and three years later commercial real estate prices are 10% lower, after the official end of the recession.

Part one of the “extend and pretend” plan has failed. Part two anticipated escalating developer cash flows as the economy recuperated, Americans resumed spending like drunken sailors and retailers began to rake in profits at record levels again. Reality has interfered with their desperate last ditch gamble. Office vacancies remain at 17.3%, close to 20 year highs, as 12.3 million square feet of new space came to market in 2011. Vacancies are higher today than they were at the end of the recession in December 2009. The recovery in cash flow has failed to materialize for commercial developers. Strip mall vacancies at 11% remain stuck at 20 year highs. Regional mall vacancies at 9.2% linger near all-time highs. Vacancies remain elevated, with no sign of decreasing. Despite these figures, an additional 4.9 million square feet of new retail space was opened in 2011. The folly of this continued expansion will be revealed as bricks and mortar retailers are forced to close thousands of stores in the next five years.

It is clear the plan put into place three years ago has failed. Extending and pretending doesn’t service the debt. Only cash flow can service debt.

Now What?

Extending and pretending that hundreds of millions in commercial loans were payable for the last three years is now colliding with a myriad of other factors to create a perfect storm in 2012 and 2013. The extension of maturities has now set up a far more catastrophic scenario as described by Chris Macke, senior real estate strategist at CoStar Group:

“As banks and property owners continue to partake in loan extensions amid a softening economy, commercial banks continue to “delay and pray” that property values will rise. Many loans are piled up and concentrated in this year, and at the same time, the economy is slowing. This dilemma has resulted in the widening of what is commonly termed the “loan maturity cliff,” which is attributed to the so called extend-and-pretend loans. During the market downturn, lenders extended the maturity dates of loans with properties that had current values below their balances. Instead, however the practice has resulted in a race for property values to try to catch up with the loan maturity dates.”

The Federal Reserve, Wall Street banks, Mortgage Bankers Association and the rest of the confederates of collusion will continue the Big Lie for as long as possible. They point to declining commercial default rates as proof of improvement. The chart below details the 4th quarter default rates for real estate loans over the last six years. Default rates in the 4th quarter of 2009 peaked for all real estate loan types. Still, today’s default rate is 450% higher than the rate in 2006. A critical thinker might ask how commercial default rates could fall from 8.75% to 6.12% when commercial vacancies have increased and commercial property values have fallen. It’s amazing how low default rates can fall when a bank doesn’t require payments or collateral to back up the loan and can utilize accounting gimmicks to avoid write-offs.

 

Real estate loans

All

Booked in domestic offices

Residential 

Commercial 

Farmland

2011:4

8.22

9.86

6.12

3.26

2010:4

9.07

10.11

7.98

3.61

2009:4

9.55

10.45

8.75

3.43

2008:4

6.03

6.64

5.49

2.28

2007:4

2.90

3.07

2.75

1.51

2006:4

1.70

1.95

1.32

1.41

The reality as detailed by honest analysts is much different than the numbers presented by Ben Bernanke and his banker cronies. A recent article from the Urban Land Institute provides some insight into the current state of the market:

 Ann Hambly, who previously ran the commercial servicing departments at Prudential, Bank of New York, Nomura, and Bank of America said a wave of defaults is coming in commercial mortgage–backed securities (CMBS). And Carl Steck, a principal in MountainSeed Appraisal Management, an Atlanta-based firm that deals in the commercial real estate space, said property values are still falling.

Noting that CMBS investors booked $6 billion in real losses in 2011 and have already taken on $2 billion more in losses so far this year, Hambly told reporters in a private briefing that “it’s going to take a miracle” for many borrowers to refinance their deals when they come due between now and 2017.

Carl Steck said that lenders who are taking over the portfolios of failed institutions are finding that the values of the loans “are coming in a lot lower than they ever thought they would.” And as a result, he thinks a “fire sale” of commercial loans is just over the horizon. 

Analysts expect 2012 to be a record-setting year for commercial real estate defaults. Last week delinquencies for office and retail loans hit their highest-ever levels, according to Fitch Ratings. The value of all delinquent commercial loans is now $57.7 billion, according to Trepp, LLC. If you think the criminal Wall Street banks limited their robo-signing fraud to just poor homeowners, you would be mistaken. The fraud uncovered in the commercial lending orbit will dwarf the residential swindle. Research by Harbinger Analytics Group shows the widespread use of inaccurate, fraudulent documents for land title underwriting of commercial real estate financing. According to the report:

This fraud is accomplished through inaccurate and incomplete filings of statutorily required records (commercial land title surveys detailing physical boundaries, encumbrances, encroachments, etc.) on commercial properties in California, many other western states and possibly throughout most of the United States. In the cases studied by Harbinger, the problems are because banks accepted the work of land surveyors who “have committed actual and/or constructive fraud by knowingly failing to conduct accurate boundary surveys and/or failing to file the statutorily required documentation in public records.”

The Wall Street geniuses bundled commercial real estate mortgages and re-sold them as securities around the world. The suckers holding those securities, already staggering from the overabundance of empty office space, will be devastated if it turns out they have no claim to the properties. They will rightly sue the lenders for falsely representing the properties. Mortgage holders in these cases may also turn to their title insurance to cover any losses. It is unknown if the title insurance companies have the wherewithal to withstand enormous claims on costly commercial properties. It looks like that light at the end of the tunnel is bullet train headed our way.

One of the fingers in the dyke of the “extend and pretend” dam has been removed by the FASB. The new leak threatens to turn into a gusher.

Andy Miller, cofounder of Miller Frishman Group, and one of the few analysts who saw the real estate crash coming two years before it surprised Bernanke and the CNBC cheerleaders sees a flood of defaults on the horizon. In a recent interview with The Casey Report Miller details a dramatic turn for the worse in the commercial real estate market he has witnessed in the last few months. His company deals with distressed commercial real estate. This segment of his business was booming in 2009 and into the middle of 2010. Then magically, there was no more distress as the “extend and pretend” plan was implemented by the governing powers. The distressed market dried up completely until November 2011. Miller describes what happened next:

“All of a sudden, right after Thanksgiving in 2011, the floodgates opened again. In the last six weeks we probably picked up seven or eight receiverships – and we’re now seeing some really big-ticket properties with major loans on them that have gone into distress, and they’re all sharing some characteristics in common. In 2008 and 2009, these borrowers were put on a workout or had a forbearance agreement put into place with their lenders. In 2009, their lenders were thinking, “Let’s do a two- or three-year workout with these guys. I’m sure by 2012 this market is going to get a lot better.” Well, 2012 is here now, and guess what? It’s not any better. In fact I would argue that it’s still deteriorating.”

Why the sudden surge in distressed properties coming to market in late 2011? It seems the FASB finally decided to grow a pair of balls after being neutered by Bernanke and Geithner in 2009 regarding mark to market accounting. They issued an Accounting Standards Update (ASU) that went into effect for all periods after June 15, 2011called Clarifications to Accounting for Troubled Debt Restructurings by Creditors. Essentially, if a lender is involved in a troubled debt restructuring with a debtor, including a forbearance agreement or a workout, the property MUST be marked to market. Andy Miller understands this is the beginning of the end for “extend and pretend”:

“I believe it’s a huge deal because it means you don’t have carte blanche anymore to kick the can down the road. After all, kicking the can down the road was a way to avoid taking a big hit to your capital. Well, you can’t do that anymore. It forces you to cut through the optical illusions by writing this asset to its fair market value.”

Ben Bernanke and the Wall Street banks are running out tricks in their bag of deception. Wall Street banks created billions in profits by using accounting entries to reduce their loan loss reserves. They’ve delayed mortgage foreclosures for two years to avoid taking the losses on their loan portfolios. They’ve pretended their commercial loan portfolios aren’t worth 50% less than their current carrying value. Bernanke has stuffed his Federal Reserve balance sheet with billions in worthless commercial mortgage backed securities. The Illusion of Recovery is being revealed as nothing more than a two bit magician’s trick. In the end it always comes back to cash flow. The debt cannot be serviced and must be written off. Thinking the American consumer will ride to the rescue is a delusional flight of the imagination.

Apocalypse Now – The Future of Retailers & Mall Owners

 

When I moved to my suburban community in 1995 there were two thriving shopping centers within three miles of my home and a dozen within a ten mile radius. Seventeen years later the population has increased dramatically in this area, and these two shopping centers are in their final death throes. The shopping center closest to my house has a vacant Genuardi grocery store(local chain bought out and destroyed by Safeway), vacant Blockbuster, vacant Sears Hardware, vacant Donatos restaurant, vacant book store, and soon to be vacant Pizza Pub. It’s now anchored by a near bankrupt Rite Aid and a Dollar store. This ghost-like strip mall is in the midst of a fairly thriving community. Anyone with their eyes open as they drive around today would think Space Available is the hot new retailer. According to the ICSC there are 105,000 shopping centers in the U.S., occupying 7.3 billion square feet of space. Total retail square feet in the U.S. tops 14.2 billion, or 46 square feet for every man, woman and child in the country. There are more than 1.1 million retail establishments competing for every discretionary dollar from consumers.

Any retailer, banker, politician, or consumer who thinks we will be heading back to the retail glory days of 2007 is delusional. Retail sales reached a peak of $375 billion per month in mid 2008. Today, retail sales have reached a new “nominal” peak of $400 billion per month. Even using the highly questionable BLS inflation figures, real retail sales are still below the 2008 peak. Using the inflation rate provided by John Williams at Shadowstats, as measured the way it was in 1980, real retail sales are 15% below the 2008 peak. The unvarnished truth is revealed in the declining profitability of major retailers and the bankruptcies and store closings plaguing the industry. National retail statistics and recent retailer earnings reports paint a bleak picture, and it’s about to get bleaker.

Retail sales in 1992 totaled $2.0 trillion. By 2011 they had grown to $4.7 trillion, a 135% increase in nineteen years. A full 64% of this rise is solely due to inflation, as measured by the BLS. In reality, using the true inflation figures, the entire increase can be attributed to inflation. Over this time span the U.S. population has grown from 255 million to 313 million, a 23% increase. Median household income has grown by a mere 8% over this same time frame. The increase in retail sales was completely reliant upon the American consumers willing to become a debt slaves to the Wall Street bank slave masters. It is obvious we have learned to love our slavery. Credit card debt grew from $265 billion in 1992 to a peak of $972 billion in September of 2008, when the financial system collapsed. The 267% increase in debt allowed Americans to live far above their means and enriched the Wall Street banking cabal. The decline to the current level of $800 billion was exclusively due to write-offs by the banks, fully funded by the American taxpayer.

Credit cards are currently being used far less as a way to live beyond your means, and more to survive another day. This can be seen in the details underlying the monthly retail sales figures. On a real basis, with inflation on the things we need to live like energy, food and clothing rising at a 10% clip, retail sales are declining. Gasoline, food and medicine are the drivers of retail today. The surge in automobile sales is just another part of the “extend and pretend” plan, as Bernanke provides free money to banks and finance companies so they can make seven year 0% interest loans to subprime borrowers. Easy credit extended to deadbeats will not create the cash flow needed to repay the debt. The continued penetration of on-line retailers does not bode well for the dying bricks and mortar zombie retailers like Sears, JC Penny, Macys and hundreds of other dead retailers walking. With gas prices soaring, the economy headed back into recession and the Federal Reserve out of ammunition, Andy Miller sums up the situation nicely:

“Well, I think we’re headed into an economy right now where there’s just not a lot of upside. Do we think, for example, in the shopping center business, that retail and consumer spending is going to go way up? Certainly not. I think that as times get tougher and unemployment remains high, it’s going to have a negative impact on consumer spending. In almost in any city in America right now, it doesn’t take a genius to see how much retail space has been constructed and is sitting there empty. Vacancy rates are as high as I’ve seen them in almost every venue that I visit. I’m very concerned about the retail business, and I think it’s extremely dangerous right now.”

The major big box retailers have been reporting their annual results in the last week. The results have been weak and even those whose results are being spun as positive by the mainstream media are performing dreadfully compared to 2007. A few examples are in order:

  • Home Depot was praised for their fantastic 2011 result of $70 billion in sales and $6.7 billion of income. The MSM failed to mention that sales are $7 billion lower than 2007, despite having 18 more stores and profit exceeded $7.2 billion in 2007. Sales per square foot have declined from $335 to $296, a 12% decline in four years.
  • Target made $2.9 billion on revenue of $67 billion in 2011. $953 million of this profit was generated from their credit card this year versus $744 million last year because they reduced their loan loss reserve by $260 million. Target is supposedly a retailer, but 33% of their bottom line comes from a credit card they desperately tried to sell in 2009. They have increased their store count from 1,600 to 1,800 since 2007 and their profit is flat. Sales per square foot have declined from $307 to $280 since 2007.
  • J.C. Penney is a bug in search of a windshield. Their sales have declined from $20 billion in 2007 to $17 billion in 2011 despite increasing their store count from 1,067 to 1,114. Their profits have plunged from $1.1 billion to a loss of $152 million. Their sales per square foot have plunged by 14% since 2007. Turning to a former Apple marketing guru as their new CEO will fail. Everyday low pricing is not going to work on Americans trained like monkeys to salivate at the word SALE.
  • The death spiral of Sears/Kmart is a sight to see. As the anchor in hundreds of dying malls across the land, this retail artifact will be joining Montgomery Ward on the scrap heap of retail history in the next few years. Its eventual bankruptcy and liquidation will leave over 4,000 rotting carcasses to spoil our landscape. The one-time genius and heir to the Warren Buffett mantle – Eddie Lampert – has proven to be as talented at retailing as his buddy Jim Cramer is at picking stocks. He has managed to decrease sales by $10 billion, from $53 billion to $43 billion in the space of four years despite opening 247 new stores. That is not an easy feat to accomplish. At least he was able to reduce profits from $1.5 billion to $133 million and drive the sales per square foot in his stores down by 15%.
  • Widely admired Best Buy has screwed the pooch along with the other foolish retailers that have massively over expanded in the last decade. They have increased their domestic sales from $31 billion to $37 billion, a 19% increase in four years. This increase only required a 444 store expansion, from 873 stores to 1,317 stores. A 51% increase in store count for a 19% increase in sales seems to be a bad trade-off. Their chief competitor – Circuit City – went belly-up during this time frame, making the relative sales increase even more pathetic. The $6 billion increase in sales resulted in a $100 million decline in profits and a 13% decrease in sales per square foot since 2007. It might behoove the geniuses running this company to stop building new stores.
  • The retailer that committed the greatest act of suicide in the last decade is Lowes. Their act of hubris, as Home Depot struggled in the mid 2000’s, is coming home to roost today. They increased their store count from 1,385 to 1,749 over four years. This 26% increase in store count resulted in an increase in sales from $47 billion to $49 billion, a 4% boost. Profitability has plunged from over $3 billion to under $2 billion over this same time frame. They’ve won the efficiency competition by seeing their sales per square feet fall by an astounding 21% over the last four years. I’ve witnessed their ineptitude as they opened four stores within 10 miles of each other in Montgomery County, PA and cannibalized themselves to death. The newest store, three miles from my house, is a pleasure to shop as there is generally more staff than customers even on a Saturday afternoon. This beautiful new store will be vacant rotting hulk within three years.

Do the results of these retail giants jive with the retail recovery stories being spun by the corporate mainstream media? When you see some stock shill on CNBC touting one of these retailers, realize he is blowing smoke up your ass. These six struggling retailers account for over 1.1 billion square feet of retail space in the U.S. One or more of them anchor every mall in America. Wal-Mart (600 million square feet in the U.S.) and Kohl’s (82 million square feet) continue to struggle as their lower middle class customers can barely make ends meet. The perfect storm is developing and very few people see it coming. Extend and pretend has failed. Americans are tapped out. Home prices continue to fall. Energy and food prices continue to rise. Wages are stagnant. Job growth is weak. Middle and lower class Americans are using credit cards just to pay their basic living expenses. The 99% are not about to go on a spending binge.

As consumers reduce consumption, retailers lose profits and will be forced to close stores. It is likely that at least 150,000 retail stores will need to close in the next five years. Less stores means less rent for mall developers. Less rent means the inability to service their debt as the value of their property declines with the outcome of Ghost Malls haunting your community. Maybe good old American ingenuity will come to the rescue as we convert ghost malls into FEMA prison camps for uncharged Ron Paul supporters, Obamacare death panel implementation centers, TSA groping educational facilities, housing for the millions kicked out of their homes by the Wall Street .01%ers, and bomb shelters for the imminent Iranian invasion.

Debt default means huge losses for the Wall Street criminal banks. Of course the banksters will just demand another taxpayer bailout from the puppet politicians. This repeat scenario gives new meaning to the term shop until you drop. Extending and pretending can work for awhile as accounting obfuscation, rolling over bad debts, and praying for a revival of the glory days can put off the day of reckoning for a couple years. Ultimately it comes down to cash flow, whether you’re a household, retailer, developer, bank or government. America is running on empty and extending and pretending is coming to an end.

 

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Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:41 | 2199346 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

The UK just fessed up.

It's  "The end" ! Per Mr. Osborne:  2 hours ago................................................

 "The UK is out of Money" 

 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9107485/Osborne-UK-has-run-out-of-money.html

Who's next ?

This could get ugly real quick !

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:44 | 2199361 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

They shouldn't give up so easily, just Fire Up The Presses and print some more fiat. 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:47 | 2199379 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

No, just let all the people go homeless and starve.

Hint - sarcasm

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:55 | 2199408 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

The Brits already have the Pound.  They need to replace it with the Kiloton.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:33 | 2199519 Mad Marv
Mad Marv's picture

If TPTB have gone to these lentghs to keep the ponzi going, does anyone doubt violence  by their part as a final solution?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:54 | 2199576 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

well, wyoming is considering the purchase of an aircraft carrier to go with its speculative attack aircraft and wyoming is a good ways from navigable water (for aircraft carriers).

http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/wyoming-house-...

thanks jesse

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:11 | 2199618 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Hey, the UK has over $400B of genuine, 100% full faith and credit greenback guaranteed US Treasuries.

I’ll bet there is a big market premium to be had for those things.

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:36 | 2199671 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Being involved in this industry, I don't think anyone could have done a better job of realistically and accurately depicting the fundamentals of the industry (and its relevance to the economy and vice-versa) than Quinn just did.

Outstanding analysis and article.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:13 | 2199750 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Next day? Next week? Next month? Next year? Timing is critical and sadly only the ones who tell the editors what to print have any grasp on the timing. Even they are in the dark for about the true black swans. You can hear the beating of their wings in the dark of night but when will they land?

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 03:38 | 2199885 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Acharya S - Hour 1 - The Christ Conspiracy
http://www.redicecreations.com/radio/2012/02/RIR-120212.php (<=many links, Books & DVDs  ‘;-o  )
http://rediceradio.net/radio/2012/RIR-120212-acharyas-hr1.mp3 (1:23:06)

February 12, 2012
D.M. Murdock, also known as "Acharya S," is an independent scholar of comparative religion and mythology, specializing in the ancient astrotheological origins of popular religious systems and beliefs. Murdock, was classically educated, receiving an undergraduate degree in Classics, Greek Civilization, from Franklin & Marshall College. She's a member of "The American School of Classical Studies at Athens, Greece." D.M. is well-travelled and speaks, reads and/or writes English, Greek, French, Spanish, Italian, German, Portuguese and a smattering of other languages to varying degrees. She has gained expertise in several religions, as well as knowledge about other esoterica and mystical subjects. D.M. is the author of "The Christ Conspiracy", "Suns of God", "Who Was Jesus" and "Christ in Egypt". She'll talk about the roots of Christianity. We discuss how Christianity and the myth of Jesus Christ were created by members of various secret societies, mystery schools and religions in order to unify the Roman Empire under one state religion. The Christ Conspiracy can be divided into two strands, the political and the mythological. We'll discuss both.

John the Baptist, Jesus, Anubis & Horus
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6INLqHgEFoM (5:28)

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:11 | 2199908 Likstane
Likstane's picture

1 Timothy 2:11-13  A woman must quietly recieve instruction with entire submissiveness.  But I do not allow a woman to teach or excercise authority over a man, but to remain quiet.  For it was Adam who was created first, and then eve. 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:20 | 2199909 Michael
Michael's picture

This article is what I describe as the Second Tsunami Wave of the US real estate bubble bust of the beginning  of the 21 century.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:42 | 2199929 Michael
Michael's picture

This retail thing is what happens when unemployed people don't have money to by gas in order to go shopping.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:46 | 2199931 Michael
Michael's picture

Best conclusion in this piece.

Maybe good old American ingenuity will come to the rescue as we convert ghost malls into FEMA prison camps for uncharged Ron Paul supporters, Obamacare death panel implementation centers, TSA groping educational facilities, housing for the millions kicked out of their homes by the Wall Street .01%ers, and bomb shelters for the imminent Iranian invasion.

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:51 | 2199932 Michael
Michael's picture

You'd be surprised at how much people can actually do without.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 06:21 | 2199964 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Once in a while, I have to agree with you Michael - this is the once, and they/we will have to do without.

Prey that we are ready and have prepped.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 07:48 | 2200022 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I don't think the heavy stuff is going to come down for quite a while.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3M-d_eIqo

 

 

 

 

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 08:18 | 2200045 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Great context..  and a keeper  :)

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 13:24 | 2200873 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Karma is a bitch.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 14:57 | 2201136 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Is there a chance the banksters can dump more of their toxic shit into the shit abyss we call the Federal Reserve?  How much shit can the Bernak put on his balance sheet?  Is he a true fecal freak with an endless appetite for shitty mortgage backed securities?  Since the banksters own the FED can't they feed it whatever they want? 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:37 | 2201337 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

We're going to find out that the answer is probably yes, given the even more dovish (i.e. idiotic or intentionally reckless) composition of the Fed's voting members as they roll out LSAP to infinity and beyond.

There's Red Roof Inn in one fo the Maiden Lane toxic slush funds.

I can see plenty of room being made for the fine retailer that is Sears/Kmart - any many more.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 08:02 | 2200030 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Uh huh good luck with that thought. I live in Manexico Park right outside DC and within 5 square miles I shit you not I have people from 100 different countries living amongst each other. There will be ZERO societal unity when shit hits the fan and the government says oops, we are out of food stamp and section 8 money. This country and all in it will burn on that day thanks to multi-culturalism madness and unchecked immigration. Prepare accordingly and hope you live out of a major metro area.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:30 | 2199918 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

AC/DC-Who Made Who
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=msmzXBLVJEg (3:26)

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:39 | 2199924 Likstane
Likstane's picture

Shush...

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:58 | 2199937 Michael
Michael's picture

At least the Italians know how to deal with the problem areas quickly, this was done back in 2007;

"When the fisherman and later the Coast Guard found the body of Southwest Florida real estate icon Frank D’Alessandro of Fort Myers, missing since last week while kayaking off New Jersey, there was a sense of finality.

Still, given D’Alessandro’s celebrity and extensive dealing amid a now-depressed real estate market, and being the target of lawsuits from unhappy investors, there are bound to be conspiracy theorists who will wonder whether he took his own life now that the sheer disappearance theory is set aside.

The cornoner in New Jersey says the autopsy shows death due to accidental drowning, and that ought to carry some weight."

http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2007/sep/18/editorial_frank_dalessandro/

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 14:48 | 2201097 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Sleeping with the fishes.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:17 | 2199761 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Newsflash:  Brazil conditions bailout of europe at G20 meeting.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17170157

Brazil has said that developing nations would be happy to provide more money to ease the eurozone's debt crisis, in return for more power within the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The comments were made by Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega as he met with his opposite numbers at a G20 meeting in Mexico.

He also called on eurozone countries to contribute more of their own funds.

Expect the following headlines soon:

Brazil sends tax collectors to Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 05:12 | 2199944 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Hey, The Dutch need tax collectors to, I heard  they all look like this: http://thechive.com/2009/04/12/brazilian-girls-in-bikinis-because-nothin...

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 06:43 | 2199976 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

TruthInSunshine... I agree, Quinn did an outstanding piece of work on his article. Hat tip to ZH for posting.

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 11:10 | 2200420 bretondog
bretondog's picture

Susnshine is right.

(My business, too....25 yrs.) The pretense is simply stunning and yet, reality is a terrible master.

Thx Quinn.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 19:51 | 2202122 lo574
lo574's picture

I could not agree more. Excellent work.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:59 | 2199586 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Quite the contrary if only 10% of the population participates in armed resistance that would be 31,000,000 ARMED citizens. To the contrary, I think there are a lot of TBTF types who will be shitting bricks. Especially if these idiots go into Iran there will be no army here to back them up.  Milestones

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:23 | 2199648 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

The power elite have 40 million on food stamps in the US alone.  How's that for a private army?

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:43 | 2199692 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Most of them are fat assed idiots though

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:31 | 2199791 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Not so sure this is an army of 49M+ the 1%'ers really wants turned loose.  Hungry, hostile and with a lot of time on their hands.  If bread, circuses, MTV, EBT, and cable TV stop, lots of these folks will be looking for a place to loot.  Best pickings are in the nice neighborhoods.  Like Willie Sutton said, he robbed banks because that is where the money is.  Police don't have much time for routine burglary.  I have been robbed twice, and all the police were able to do was fill out a bit of paperwork after the fact.  In Mexico and other Latin American countries, kidnapping 1%'ers for a big ransom payment is pretty routine. Surprising to me that kidnapping 1%'ers for ransom payoffs has not started here in the US already.  Don't think the 1%'ers in the US are very ready for that.  1%'ers thinking they would "control" this army is rather laughable.      

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 09:45 | 2200202 10mm
10mm's picture

The coppers will not be there now let alone when the SHTF.Suggestion,act like theres no cops anywhere and it's all up to you to get thru these very trying times.Also your close ones you can count on.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 03:00 | 2199873 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

10% vs 0.01% doesn't seem to be fair odds.  1000/1?

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 06:24 | 2199967 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Last time it mattered there were only 3% of us. As to the 40-50 million that are on foodstamps, I discount those that are armed and further discount that have sufficient ammo.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:33 | 2199521 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

This article......... Holy Shit!  I was wondering why CMBS has not imploded within the last few years. Living in Dallas, I see empty buildings everywhere. It is obvious business in not quite as good as the cheerleaders claim.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:53 | 2199569 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

If marijuana were legal it would take up all the empty space, pay off the debt, and leave all of us just a little bit happier.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:08 | 2199610 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

And.. add more unemployable people in the mix.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:01 | 2199827 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

More than alcohol?  Seriously doubt that, outlaw alcohol and legalize pot is a net gain and I hate the stuff but lets be honest with ourselves.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 03:27 | 2199880 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

ditto

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 05:04 | 2199940 dolly madison
dolly madison's picture

For the one who said this comment, "And.. add more unemployable people in the mix." and those who clicked on the up arrow, you must have never smoked any pot.  I've smoked a bit in my life and it never kept me from working.  I have known people who smoked it daily and were still always gainfully employed.   Smoking a J after work is pretty similar to having a drink except your much less likely to get violent from a J.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 08:53 | 2200082 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I only worked in an office job for about 2 years in my life...

During which I was pretty much stoned every single day... It's the only time I ever smoked pot because I never smoked it as a teenager, and I've probably ony taken 2 or 3 hits in the 30 years that I left that office job...

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 10:13 | 2200275 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

start a company and then hire a bunch of people to keep your company moving.   you will start to hate pot heads as they are mostly fuck ups.  

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 06:17 | 2199962 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

Frito-Lay stock would go wild

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 07:07 | 2199992 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Decriminalize it.  Don't tax it.  How many laws can we afford to enforce?  Have mercy on the people of Mexico and living along our southern border who are terrorized by drug cartels. 

It would be major problem in my community if they rounded up all the casual smokers and proscecuted them.  There are a lot of productive and influential members of society who partake of the weed.  I don't smoke (anymore) or condone it.  I abhor the ongoing carnage in Mexico that it supports. 

And regarding the topic of cash flow:  cash flow = fact.  profit = opinion.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 05:20 | 2199947 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

Maybe the ounce would be more appropriate?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:44 | 2199363 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Hint - Austerity isn't working!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:02 | 2199429 BaggerDon
BaggerDon's picture

Slothfullness is not working.............and more sloth is not the solution...!! Do you have one of those wavelss pools on the ocean like your buddy Friedman??

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:00 | 2199591 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

Can I get an honest wage for my labours? not watered down by a few million wet backs? until then, I am done,and the competing against affirmative actioneers and lesbian implants with imaginary skills and qualifications? fuck no! I is done, alternate economy coffin for me.

I will be taking my skills with me instead of passing them to an apprentice so, hit the library or hire  a Chinese company to build your future.

Hell,they invented gunpowder and kites and stuff, it will work out fine.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:21 | 2199646 trav7777
trav7777's picture

DATS RAYCISS

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:38 | 2199675 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Every time I see "Equal Opportunity Employer" I know that means Caucasian males need not apply.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:30 | 2199662 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

And what exactly are your fucking skills? You got a PhD on 18th century islamic feminist literature? Sorry bud. You have been living a dream all your life, propped by a fraudulent reserve currency.  The alarm clock is about to buzz, and you are about to wake up in a shitter of a world where you ain't worth squat.  And with that low IQ you proudly boast, I doubt the average chinese farmer would hire you to shine their shoes or milk their sows.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:12 | 2199724 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

Actionheels, your fat and hate white people, knave a nice check from a socialist government and your also fat. Blessed with a great mind and an education sponsored in one form or another by white Europeans / Americans/a Schemer crew family in Gotrugistan, you choose to use your wealth of knowledge to Piss on the Pony that brought you out of the stone age, knock yer self out. SARC ON / not. and you are a fat idiot.

18th century Islamic lit, I will be looking for some of that important stuff that no one will ever read because Islamic feminist is a contradiction of terms, one can not be one and the other,

One is a pissed off wife , the other is the victim of an honour killing.

In the USA we call Islamic feminists, Tourists that wont go home.Real up Gyro boy.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:20 | 2199910 Likstane
Likstane's picture

This is an argument I should get in on.  I mean this is good action.  If I remember the rules right, there is one that limits the fight to one on one, at least until one gives.  Well piss-bags, as soon as one of you back-ass cave thugs has had enough crusty cheese-thumpings, step into the house of stomach pain and prepare for a old-fashioned country ass-whoopin.  Now what was the argument again?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:06 | 2199437 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Dr K

Hint: Socialism isn't working!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:21 | 2199472 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

The U.S. has seen a great move forward economically and this is because, yes because, of the economic policy of Ben Bernanke and the fiscal policy of the Congress.  Europe has not implemented the growth measures the U.S. has, and look at them!  They are moving towards depression.  And it was close here too; yet because the Federal Reserve and Treasury had continued to use loose policy, and because Congress understands how to let economics work, we are fine.

If Europe had implemented these measures from day one, maybe they wouldn't be where they are today; bickering about what to do.  These actions should not be questioned:  economics is a science.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:22 | 2199483 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Hey,  aren't you THE paul krugman? The multiple oscar prize winning economist who will commit suicide in the not too distant future?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:27 | 2199500 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

I am watching the show now; well my wife is.  I told her I was going to "Fight Club". 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:53 | 2199570 Drunken Monkey
Drunken Monkey's picture

Rule number 1: You do not talk about Fight Club!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:55 | 2199578 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Screw Greece...9:03 tommorow "Total Collapse".

Of course "Greece Defaults" had little if any effect but I felt better.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:02 | 2199595 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

" and because Congress understands how to let economics work, we are fine"

Puff Puff Pass dood!!

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:38 | 2199679 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Fiat munny printing != growth measure

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:18 | 2199763 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

HaHa. It would seem the excess commercial space IS being used to produce mind altering drugs.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 07:39 | 2200011 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

DeadFred... From reading comments posted so far I'm convinced that the excess retail space is being utilized to train trolls... which is why I skip most comments posted on ZH except those by a few that have shown that they are not attempting to derail threads with bs... Part of troll training is typified below... Or, perhaps some of these 'posters' are truly clueless?

Lesson #1: How to Derail a Thread Topic.

(a) Make sure first post is completely off topic; 'Britain is completely broke' etc

(b) Off topic first post; Will generate comments insuring that relevent posts will be far down thread.

(c) Post more blather; 'Anyone doubt TPTB will resort to violence' This will generate more off topic comments moving discussion further from topic; ie, Wyoming aircraft carriers and military, etc.

(d) Finally, someone (TruthInSunshine) posts an on topic comment.

(e) Post a question about timing of article... as if anyone knows what is going to happen in a first ever economic experiment that is being carried out on a world wide scale... and question when the banks will crash because of consequences and irregularities pointed out in the article.

(f) Post some blather on mythology which drags the conversation further away from thread topic.

(g) Post some blather on religion, preferably muslim or christian fundamentalist... but any religion will do.

(h) Post a comment with a conclusion that is obvious to any but a cave dweller... "this is what happens when _____ (fill in the blank)

(i) Post a comment on a tune by some famous or obscure rock group that has little or only coincidental relation to topic.

(j) Post a comment about a dead real estate scammer that may be tied to a conspiracy theory... or not.

(k) Post a completely off topic comment about BRICS coming to rescue Europe or Greece or PIIGS.

(l) Post a third party comment on an ongoing, off topic, disagreement... and never miss an opportunity to describe ZH posters as 'fight club' members.

There are many more means to derail threads... In fact, the number tacts one can take are endless. It is the few that can generate meaningful discourse that will cause thought by all of us ... and the many that can derail threads with babble.

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:23 | 2199912 rosethorn
rosethorn's picture

"These actions should not be questioned:  economics is a science."

Actions of government should always be questioned..there is plenty of evidence that monetary and fiscal policy has been for the benefit of systemically important financial institutions, hedge funds and certain well connected cronies of elected and appointed officials.

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:45 | 2199699 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

More and more looks like 6 smaller (U)SA are likely in the near future. This way 1/6th-US will not go out for adventure.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:25 | 2199496 I only kill chi...
I only kill chickens and wheat's picture

Ooohhhh Dr. Krugman, your so right as usual if only these dimwits in flyover states would just get with the program everything will work out. The Government is not like a household debt wise, because we just owe it to ourselves.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:40 | 2199516 Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

We owe it to many people, but we have the credit to pay it in the future; just like how any credit system works, so does a bond issue.  We will raise taxes and save during the next up turn, but as for now, we need to support the economy, and that means keeping rates low.  Imagine what would happen if rates rose, or we stopped spending:  it would result in depression.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:59 | 2199587 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Why don't we just use the next 10,000 years of credit and everything will be fine.  We can all live in mansions and drive a Lexus and have our own personal jet.  Wouldnt that be great?  We will let those people who are born 10,000 years from now pay for it.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:31 | 2199919 reload
reload's picture

I know you jest, but seriously, what the article is saying is that - values and profits are a matter of opinion, cashflow is a matter of fact.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:18 | 2199636 quartshort
quartshort's picture

You don't need to imagine what happened. Rates are low and we have increased spending dramaticly. Result has been and continues to be depression, Pauly.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:42 | 2199690 tomRapheal
tomRapheal's picture

Nope, only real resources exist.  Cannot actually get resources from the future, limited to present.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 03:33 | 2199882 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

You can get people to WORK more in the present with the promise of future benefits.

This produces more aggregate economic output in the present than would be output if you told them they would get, at best, ten cents on the dollar later in life in the form of social security, medicare, medicaid, and so much else(roads, national security, ever rising prosperity, and on and on).

Another way, famously, to get a lot more economic output in the present is to use a story (real or imagined) of a collective existential threat, or injury to national pride even, and have everyone work like hell patriotically. WW II comes to mind.

Economics is about people doing things, and their motivations to do things, not about "resources."

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:26 | 2199914 rosethorn
rosethorn's picture

"We will raise taxes and save during the next up turn"

 

Will we? Are the Bush/Obama "tax cuts" going to be allowed to expire?

 

From a jobs perspective, describing the current situation in the US as "recession" or "depression" is a matter of semantics.  Where are the jobs and why isn't fiscal policy being directed at job programs? 

Check with your colleague Robert Reich.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:56 | 2199580 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Out of control government spending isn't working either.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:48 | 2199381 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

No surprise there! The UK has been one of the worst basket case economies in the developed world. Massive money printing has not saved the day. North Sea oil running dry is killing Britain, in fact this oil saved Britain for decades or it would have collapsed back in the 80's.

They call it Soviet Britain for a reason. Everybody in the bloody country either works for some unit of government, is on government benefits, or works in the government bailout blood sucking financial sector.

There is hardly a productive enterprise from the Shetlands to Lands End.

Poor bastards, the game is up!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:51 | 2199398 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

I'm personally betting it'll be the big explosion no-one expected. Black Swan feathers floating down over everyone.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:25 | 2199650 trav7777
trav7777's picture

and the whole country is full of wankers.  Everytime oversees I see a brit I just laugh at them, such pussies and self-hating liberal idiots.  They invited half of africa to come to their island thinking what, that all that Lord Napier shit was some kinda misguided colonial era supremacism?

The UK got infested right in the heart of london long ago by the King of the Usury Clan

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:03 | 2199730 tomRapheal
tomRapheal's picture

trav, what is your definition of usury?  Interest on money? Do you actually oppose 2 individuals making a free contract?

Or do you oppose the central banking bs of lending money to its cronies and itself. 

 

I have been a long time lurker, and I think you clarified this once, but it might have been a while ago.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 03:45 | 2199890 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

I know this isn't addressed to me but if i lend my money I do it with the expectation \i might not get paid back, so therefore i do not lend very often.

If the bankers were lending real money instead of these conjured electronic credits, there would be sound policies to protect against losses for they would be real. everyone would be more aware of the risks assocciated with borrowing so it would be approached very prudently when required.  therefore capitalism............ if i buy a good young milk cow it will give me 1 gallon of milk per day that i can sell in the market.  the cow will pay for itself in two years............or somthing likr that

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:37 | 2199800 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Stop being racist.

Did you see this fuckin' thing'?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BdjoHA5ocwU

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 03:59 | 2199901 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

It's easy to spot a Brit in Europe.  He's the one jumping the queue, insulting the waitress, complaining loudly to the hotel clerk, and simply being an arrogant clown.  No matter, a few more years and their passports won't be accepted anywhere, but America.  And i, for one, won't be here nor there. 

Tue, 02/28/2012 - 07:51 | 2203151 _underscore
_underscore's picture

In my experience British people are the most polite you'll find anywhere - correct queue etiquette is something the UK exported to the world; insulting waitresses we usually leave to other less civilised nations, too. Funny how many hundreds of thousands  of Europeans (from the financial/creative industries to crop pickers/factory workers) want to come to the UK to work & live - can't seem to wait to leave their own failing states it seems. I'm sure we won't miss you RR, good luck with wherever you end up though - you'll probably need it.

Trav - a mere collection of unabacked assertions, topped off by insults, is the mark of a failing (if not flailing) argument.

 The UK is rather well placed in the 'extend & pretend' stakes - we don't have the dubious adavantge of reserve currency status, nor the millstone of one-size-fits-all fiscal & monetary policies. Germany will bleed itself nearly dry, then stagnate under an revalued nEuro or DM subsequently - apart from its gold (which is mostly secreted in London vaults!) Germany is alot less attractive than it seems. Its GDP to debt ratio (inc. unfunded liabilities( is only marginally better than most borderline southern european states it castigates & its economic miracle was based, mainly,  on a low Euro exchange rate - with soft gullible markets south of the Alps buying its over-priced status symbols with money lent by German citizens, via pension funds etc.

 Europe & America will also have more social unrest in extremis - let's face it, neither exhibit much of a history history of stability or social cohesion, in crisis. Look at the US survivalist/prepper websites for a flavour of what's to come. The Greek societal breakdown is a good model as to what will happen in France/Spain/Italy once Germany takes away the comfort blanket. Ireland is lucky to have the UK as its main trading partner (and vice versa, of course) - we will not let our Celtic cousins down as the Euro govts. have with each other.

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:47 | 2199382 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

We get it.  No need to post this on multiple threads.  It's kinda annoying.

K? Thx...

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:08 | 2199442 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

It's already gone viral in yourlube, twittshit and facecrook.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:49 | 2199385 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Silver is up at 0300 GMT in Hong Kong. Whee! Bring it Bitchaez!.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:02 | 2199431 tempo
tempo's picture

I don't see an end for many years since the alternatives for the US/EU/UK are really awful. Imagine sitting down w your children and grandchildren or telling all adults over 15 years old that they must now compete w for a good job not by wasting 5 years partying at a University or blogging but by competing with Foxconn employees. You must now work 12 hours/day, 6 days per week, live in 20 person dorm rooms, eat two meals of rice/pork per day and you do not have a computer, xbox, smartphone, blogging, movies, TV, sports, student aid, health care or retirment. Thats the world when extend and pretend ends. IMO, it is much more likely that we will have a war before the debt bubble ends.On one side the US/EU consumes and lives like kings on the other side in INdia/China people live like slaves.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:13 | 2199458 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

That is why we need a war, to destroy the competition, ala WW2.   /s/

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:19 | 2199474 Silenus
Silenus's picture

How do you destroy China in a war when they have nuclear bombs? Sure, China can be destroyed, but so would the country that destroys it. Crushing industrial rivals, like happened in WWII, isn't feasible between nuclear powers.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:37 | 2199533 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Inflation-instigated internal instability.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:08 | 2199609 El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

Well for starters you don't go to war. All you need to do is destroy the rice on a grand scale via somekind of genetically engineered blight. You know the kind of stuff governments can create if need be. Just think not a single bullet fired and 3 billion people starve to death in a matter of months. Insane and evil but possible.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:07 | 2199832 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Tell you what Tuco, China has a gun in the bathtub too and when it is time to shoot they won't talk they will shoot. ICBM's, they are Chinese, not stupid..

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:20 | 2199476 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

If history is any guide, another war will only accelerate the fall of empire.

AE defined insanity as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results".

The power elite are not insane. They are full fucktard. And what's the definition of full fucktard?

Doing the same thing over and over again and pretending to get a different result.

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:28 | 2199780 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

Where did you get that from, Readers Digest?

Amazing! what wisdom. we should all kow-tow now to the great mind of Actionheels.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 07:51 | 2200024 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

Actually, that was one of his better posts.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:27 | 2199501 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

After the crash, I see people demanding less iStuff so there won't be the need for "12 hours/day, 6 days per week, live in 20 person dorm rooms." Survivors are going to spread out and make...food!

There will be wars though which will result in casualty rates which have never been possible before because the population of the world has never been this high. Perhaps peak oil, etc. can be shoved back a few centuries when 3 billion lives are extinguished in a flash.

Strong hearts, all.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:26 | 2199653 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Peak oil already happened, genius.  So throw that little "theory" out.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:37 | 2199850 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

So NatGas replces oil in terms of transport.

What bitch?

My best friend works in the NatGas field...they are BURNING gas because they have no where to store it.

Oil will be the yesteryear as soon as people figure out NatGas

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 05:33 | 2199950 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

Mobil built a gas to gasoline plant down here 30 odd years ago but it was moth-balled when the price of oil collapsed. I guess they have the old blue-prints knocking around somewhere.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:58 | 2199716 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

With all due respect, for a lot of Chinese working at Foxconn was a step up from their prior life in rural China barely subsisting.  That said, many have been exploited for sure, and Apple seems to have turned a blind eye to the exploitation up until recently.  But having lived and worked in China, I know from personal experience that the people are generally smart, very hard working, and care about their family.  South Koreans work even harder.  Look how far Hyundai and Samsung have come in the past 10 years.  It is a much more competitive world in general.  All the people behind the Iron Curtain, India, and China are now in the world economy -- people that were not relevant to the average US worker 30 years ago.  Baby Boomers had the luxury of being born when most of the world was still recovering from massive destruction in WWII.  But that is now over, and the average person in the US is going to have to step up their game.  Unfortunately for a lot of people, an upper middle class income for slapping hubcaps on Bulcks and Fords on an assembly line is no longer possible.  Plenty of folks around the world are willing to do that for 10 cents on the dollar compared to US workers.  Agree that wasting 5 years partying at a University or being a drugged up video game fanatic will no longer lead to an upper middle class job or lifestyle.  But there are still opportunities for smart and hard working people. On the other hand, the lazy, mediocre, attitude cases, and drug-addled have a very unpleasant future.  The US has a lot of advantages in terms of natural resources that we should take better advantage of.  And we will have to work harder.  No doubt about that.  

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:19 | 2199758 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Working hard only matters if you live in a somewhat fair society with some semblance of justice.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 06:31 | 2199971 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

Working harder and longer will never make us 'competitive' with 10 cent an hour labor, I worked around 3600 hrs last year, how bout you?  The working harder and longer meme is about as realistic as printing massive amounts of money and debt to solve a solvency issue.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 07:33 | 2200006 Baleful Runes 4 U
Baleful Runes 4 U's picture

.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 07:33 | 2200009 Baleful Runes 4 U
Baleful Runes 4 U's picture

"On the other hand, the lazy, mediocre, attitude cases, and drug-addled have a very unpleasant future. "

haha yeah? only them?    you are truly in for the rudest of awakenings

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:34 | 2199856 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

It won't work out that way. The Foxconn model / Chinese industrial model is dependent on exports to debt-fueled debtor nations. Without that, there's no reason for them to exist. The employment model in China will change just as dramatically as it will in the U.S. in the coming years. The standard of living will rise in the productive parts of the Third World and stagnate or contract in most of the First World and meet somewhere in the middle.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:10 | 2199449 Pike Bishop
Pike Bishop's picture

Everybody is waiting for the money which evacuated the Mutual Funds to jump back in the equity markets, so we can all sell and fuck them.

The money isn't in their mattresses and it isn't coming back.

They've been spending it on food, gasoline, and electricity.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:18 | 2199470 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

That's all UK could survive as a poodle of US.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:21 | 2199482 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Most governments in the world are flat out broke. They are pumping water (fiat money) into their gas tanks. It's only a matter of time before the engine blows up.

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:22 | 2199484 GoldenTool
GoldenTool's picture

Don't worry the olympics will bring in all kinds of revenue this summer...

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:15 | 2199629 breakyoself
breakyoself's picture

It's funny you mentioned that because I haven't heard anything (hype) about the Olympics other than when romney supposedly saved it some year I don't care to remember.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:17 | 2199634 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

How much would they have to pay you to sit in that obvious false flag attack xtadium enviroment? i will be looking for the big flash in the sky on Miami beach.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:33 | 2199518 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Does they know investing in printing business pays off at the end.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:39 | 2199539 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

 They can't run out of money.  Bernanke will print for them too, all of Europe will be added to the TBTF list.... "for the good of all".

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:15 | 2199631 trav7777
trav7777's picture

UK is a wanker state filled with a bunch of suicidal twits.  WTF, they have existed for a long time as a frickin financial parasite and had no other real industry to speak of.  Now the financial racket is in decline, the country is collapsing.  Maybe all those africans they imported for the diversity will pick up where the wankers left off LOL

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:41 | 2199687 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Trav the fucktard racist who believes in white supremacy, the tooth faery, AGW, and biotic oil that comes from unicorn fossils.

Go back to your Gears of War buddy match.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:13 | 2199840 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Kill yourself.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:38 | 2199860 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Bob D'abo, Trav7777's alter ego.

How's that fantasy trade account going? How many trillions have you lost?

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 03:50 | 2199895 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

The Tories can't cut Govt spending, anywhere, post the most bloated 14 year socialist spending orgy in Britains history???

The Tories were pitiful opposition and as i warned would be a pitiful Govt

Osbourne has about as much brains and balls as candy floss ..pitiful

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 05:07 | 2199939 reload
reload's picture

Absolutely right, all the talk about cutting the defecit is balls. All they have `achieved` is to cut the rate at which the defecit is growing. It is still going to be bigger at the end of this parliament than at the start.

No small business friendly policy descisions have been made AT ALL since they slithered into office. Look at the current cabinet, an appalling collection of ex Etonian status quo maintaining, pocket lining sycophants. Most of them have never done a days real work in a productive enterprise. Cameron has lived off a trust fund while Osbourne and opposition leader Miliband have inherited substantial wealth in extraordinarily `tax efficient` ways, through schemes which would be illegal for most citizens.

Incidently, I despise Clegg as well. Not that I agreed with any of his election manifesto, but he completely abandoned it without any fight as soon as a seat in government was available. Spineless, hand wringing fool who wonders why he is not taken seriously. 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:44 | 2199352 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture
Extend And Pretend Coming To An End

Promises, promises...

Debt default means huge losses for the Wall Street criminal banks.

Yeah right. They'll just transfer the defaulted loans to the FED and take free money from Ben at 0% in return.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:12 | 2199621 max2205
max2205's picture

BTW. Lending money at below real market rates exaserbates the declining worth of that money.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:43 | 2199359 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

The extend and pretend can is made out of indestructium.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:52 | 2199401 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

I had a '69 Bonneville with Endura on the nose piece.   Indestructible until it weathered -- then it just chipped off.

Within a few years, you couldn't get a replacement  since they all met the same fate.

Learned a lesson, never forgot it.  Bet one of those would be worth it's weight in gold now.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:44 | 2199364 NuckingFuts
NuckingFuts's picture

I stuck my finger in a dyke once...... It didn't really help matters any.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:49 | 2199392 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

That explains the black eye...........

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:02 | 2199430 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

That's why you sing soprano?

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:31 | 2199794 IQ 101
IQ 101's picture

You been drinking? you know you people can't drink.

Worst kind of racist, the bitter non-white wanna bee.

Hate defined, personified, resentment of reality.

Sad.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:07 | 2199438 NuckingFuts
NuckingFuts's picture

She broke my leg too. That's the last time I think I won the lottery when I am the only guy in the bar.

All kidding aside, we are seriously fucked. Good luck all.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:13 | 2199454 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1  Indeed, good luck to us all.

Buy gold.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:25 | 2199495 Crumbles
Crumbles's picture

Ah, yes
Snapping pussy.

-) .)

$

...

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:30 | 2199511 Crumbles
Crumbles's picture

Ah, yes
Snapping pussy.

-) .)

$

...

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:26 | 2199655 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Snapping pussy is bad enough the first time! Geez!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:31 | 2199513 Rogier
Rogier's picture

A finger in a dyke isn't much if it ain't Dutch. (You can take that any way you want to...)

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:45 | 2199367 Gromit
Gromit's picture

So please explain why Simon Property group, the World's largest retail mall owner, is at an alltime high

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:46 | 2199374 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Stuffing?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:11 | 2199453 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

China is building malls faster than you can say "kungpao roasted rat with fries and a pint of tsing tao please".

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:14 | 2199459 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

They're next...

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:35 | 2199921 Likstane
Likstane's picture

I'll sub in for you IQ101.  That's hilarious you greasy Iranian.  Why don't you take that  Assoc. degree in applied geopolitics from Teh-ran U and stick it in that moss covered hole in what looks like a face?  All you fat cheeks is belong to IQ101

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:54 | 2199404 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Cheese! It's all Cheese, Gromit. A lovely bit of Wenslyedale.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:23 | 2199488 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

 General Growth Properties is gone,  maybe?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:31 | 2199515 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Gromit,

Simon is too big to fail and you/we aint...  If/when Simon goes down they take a bunch of wankin fukin bankers with them.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:45 | 2199549 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

xactly

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:51 | 2199566 Gromit
Gromit's picture

Well maybe. Looks to me like SPG are leasing long and borrowing short - rather clever really, not too much vulnerability to interest rate increase just now.

Works 'til it doesn't.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:40 | 2199683 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Lots of bones in dat der closet. Lots of IOUs. Big wave of CMBS coming due

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:38 | 2199535 CH1
CH1's picture

Bullish! Buy everything! On MARGIN!!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:45 | 2199373 Perseid.Rocks
Perseid.Rocks's picture

Haven't ya heard, it's a big club, and you ain't in it.. The people in the club have cash flow, but you don't get to have any, because you ain't in the club.. geddit?

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