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Guest Post: Five Things I’ve Learned On The Ground In Portugal
Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man
Five Things I’ve Learned On The Ground In Portugal
Portugal is a country that I’ve always enjoyed, full of warm, welcoming people, excellent wine, and great weather.
I came to Porto, the country’s second largest city of some 1.5 million, to get a sense of what’s been happening since the eurocalypse.
1. Capitulation of hope
Excluding the city’s still-bustling tourist areas, it’s very quiet around the city.
Street-level retail shops and restaurants are either devoid of customers or have been vacated. On many blocks I’ve seen more “for lease” signs than operating businesses.
Officially, the unemployment rate is 15.2% in Portugal, and the economy will contract 3% this year… yet the clear lack of economic activity suggests the real figures are much greater.
Without doubt, reality has set in. Locals have capitulated ‘hope’ that the good times will magically re-appear and have adjusted their habits accordingly.
2. Austerity: too little, too late
For the last several years, national government spending has contributed nearly 40% of Portugal’s GDP. In Europe, this has only been bested by (you guessed it) Greece and Ireland.
Including local and provincial governments, in fact, total government expenditure here surpasses 50% of GDP. It’s insane.
Under the terms of their bail-out last year, they’ve been forced to cut back. Sort of.
The government recently tried reforming public worker benefits, for example. But Portugal’s Constitutional Court overturned the move, ruling that cutting public workers’ Christmas bonuses and generous paid holidays is unconstitutional.
They’ve also made attempts at overhauling the broken pension system. But then the president himself, Mr. Anibal Cavaco Silva, began complaining about his own pension being trimmed.
You really can’t make this stuff up.
All the national and local governments have really been able to do is cut small, rounding-error line items from the budget… landscaping, trash collection, things like that.
You can see the results on the streets– the grass is growing knee-high in public areas away from Porto’s main tourist spots.
But none of this is going to make a dent in the budget. ‘Austerity’ here is truly meaningless, and these guys are going to slide right back into insolvency. I’d expect Portugal’s 10-year yield (currently 10.3%) to rise.
3. Absurdly cheap.
Portugal is now one of the cheapest civilized places in the world to live. As part of the contraction, both asset prices and many retail prices in Portugal have dropped substantially.
The middle/upper-middle class segments of the real estate market have gone no-bid, and investment property owners with mortgages to service are getting desperate.
To give you an idea, I’m renting a spacious 3-bedroom, 2000 square foot luxury apartment in a new(ish) development that was completed during the real estate boom a few years ago. It’s costing me a whopping $60/night.
The complex is a ghost town. I’ve seen four human beings in as many days, and as I stand on the terrace surveying the other units, most of what I see is vacant.
Property owners I’ve spoken to say that they don’t want to rent to locals under a long-term lease because the locals can’t pay. And when they stop paying, the government makes eviction very difficult.
This makes their market of potential lessees quite small, hence cheap prices.
4. Gold businesses are doing well
All over town you can see these new ‘cash for gold’ type franchises being set up. It’s crazy, you’ll even see two or three of them on the same block across the street from one another. It’s like Starbucks.
Many of them are doing brisk business as locals look to raise spare cash. And the businesses are only buying gold, not selling.
5. Lack of productive youth
There is a noticeable, disproportionate lack of young people between the ages of 15 to 35 or so.
It seems that much of Portugal’s youth is heading to greener pastures, most notably to Brazil where they can easily obtain residency, find a job, and integrate into society… or to frontier markets like Angola (a former colony with a booming resource economy).
No doubt, people with skills and courage are getting the hell out.
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6. The women are babes!
No, they aren't.
Leave him alone it's not his fault. Some people have become so used to fat asses, they've started to like them.
What's wrong with a meaty but firm ass on a woman? Plenty of broads still have my teeth marks on them!
A little Cushin for the Pushin...Would you kick her off the bed???
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3257/2310844665_84091ac89b.jpg
It isn't my fault. I pretty much like all women as long as they have a nice personality. And I really like european women.
I somewhat agree because I can't stand a broad who has no brains, wit or personality and depends on her looks to get by but I prefer Asian women, they know how to take care of their men.
Tyler,
It's time to kick Simon Black & his team out of the inner circle. His article are predictable, score an average of 2..3 pts and do so rightfully. Go with quality, not with (paid?) quantity. He's good enough for a guest post.
ZS
Fat chics are like Mopeds. They're great fun to ride, until your friends see you own them.
I think I'll have a Coke, please.
hey popo, are you an ass connaisseur like me?
http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m3zkmzbVvV1r9mxrbo1_500.jpg
How can you call yourself popo but NOT like fat asses?
Fat is the essence of every ass.
I prefer a fat ass over a bony ass always!
Well, truthfully, it is one of the other. Babe/not babe (ghastly) with about a 20/80 split.
(disclosure) I am a dual US Portuguese national.
http://a2.ec-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/114/78a9721a6b9d4e88bc948eca...
Ahmeexnal... spot on as usual.
He is usually spot on, except when he is discussing peak oil.
Sadly many people are giving up hope. IF they had the knowledge to invest in gold and silver before hand, they would of protected themselves somewhat.
http://jimrickards.blogspot.ca/
If you don't mind a squat body, Catholic attitude, and plenty of facial and body hair....babe-a-licious!
Why is Simple Simon wasting our time with tales of Portuguese women? I want to hear about Greece and that gal, Ulika Myfatassamous.
Sssssssssshhhhhh!!!!
I've got enough competition as a homely looking guy --- let's keep that item about Portuguese women our secret, OK?
Plus, great coffee....
Detroit is a city that I’ve always enjoyed, full of warm, welcoming people, excellent wine, and great weather.
yeah that detroit wine. ehmmm ehmmm....
Thunderbird is a wine.
What's the word? / Thunderbird / How's it sold? / Good and cold / What's the jive? / Bird's alive / What's the price? / Thirty twice.
h/t BumWine.com
... / who drinks the most / you colored folks
:)
A relaxing mid-morning wine tasting, al fresco, in Bernanke and Obama’s New America:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/maryannsnider/5525287108/
I prefer Mad Dog 20/20 for my palate
redbull vs maddog 20/20
http://www.motifake.com/redbull-gives-you-wings-redbull-wings-maddog-tre...
Down in the Bootheel of Missouri that fine refreshment is more commonly known as "Mellow Delight".
Cheers Bitchez!
Hey, thanks, that's a hilarious site on cheap wines favoured by bums and winos ... over 2 million views!
For example, from their review of the 18% alcohol wine 'Cisco':
« ... Known as "liquid crack," for its reputation for wreaking more mental havoc than the cheapest tequila. ... In 1991, Cisco's tendency to cause a temporary form of inebriated insanity led the Federal Trade Commission to require its bottlers to print a warning on the label (above right). The FTC also forced them to drop their marketing slogan, "Takes You by Surprise," even though it was entirely accurate. »
http://www.bumwine.com/
Good stuff. Only thing missing was the tasting notes from the sterno/government cheese tasting.
Looking for expert advice here, is sterno a liquor or a wine?
What's wrong with Night Train?
What's wrong with Detriot?
MD2020 and Nitetrain in the coolers.
A pint of vodka in every pocket.
A chicken in every shack.
I'm was Born in Detriot
Whata fucking dump
That is being very unfair to dumps.
Detroit was a victim of its residents.
My girlfriend told me to kiss her where it stinks.
so I took her to Detroit...
Not to mention rabbits-for food or pets.
Let's have a report from this author or Detroit or Stockton-could be very amusing.
Yeah, and the night life is to die for...
Simon Black is a Douchebag Moron.
Seriously, how many different ways can he write "It's better over here in [ insert country name here ]"
I travel a lot (and live abroad) and so far, most of the countries Simon writes about he has been clueless about. He has literally no idea what it's like to run a business in most other countries, or deal with legal disputes, or licensing issues or deal with offshore tax issues.
Not only is his message idiotically bland, but he misses the elephant in the room in 100% of his posts on US based blogs: Americans must pay US taxes when living abroad.
He's a cheap blogger backpacking around the world and pretending he has a "message".
back in those wild wild west history days, guys would travel from place to place shilling tonics & snake oils, "miracle potions" and daft schemes.
they'd always hightail it out to the next town before anyone could test their "thesis" -
simon black, nothing new under the sun. . .
I appreciate the on-the-ground info.
Chicks are super hot in Bulgaria, and it's even cheaper.
aye, figures it would be you that points out the bargain basement fucks.
have cawk, will travel. the new amrkn standard.
Do as you like, so long as you stay out of Asia where I live, USuckAss-ians.
Perhaps, but this is spot on. No young people in Porto. I have seen it last year for myself.
5. Lack of productive youth
There is a noticeable, disproportionate lack of young people between the ages of 15 to 35 or so.
It seems that much of Portugal’s youth is heading to greener pastures, most notably to Brazil where they can easily obtain residency, find a job, and integrate into society… or to frontier markets like Angola (a former colony with a booming resource economy).
No doubt, people with skills and courage are getting the hell out.
I appreciate his perspective. What's incorrect about his take on Portugal? The first $87k is tax exempt for Americans living abroad if you stay out of the US 330 days in a calendar year. I can get by on that nicely, so I want to know what it's like over there--especially for the things that are important to me. Simon gives me some data points. Props to him.
$87K in earned income! It's pretty unlikely that you would get a job in Portugal that would pay you $87K per year.
"Americans must pay US taxes when living abroad." Sucker. Pardon me.
I've lived abroad since '96 and haven't paid a dime in income taxes since then--not locally, and certainly not to the terrorist government of the USuckAss. So I don't know what you're going on about. I left in part because of the insufferable society and partly because I didn't want to be a tax-paying war-supporter, but if that's ok for you, then keep paying it. Some folks like being complicit and having the blood of innocent foreign nationals on their hands.
Don't you have homework to do, or toys to put away?
Drowning vicitms bob up and down a few times before finally going under.
"To give you an idea, I’m renting a spacious 3-bedroom, 2000 square foot luxury apartment in a new(ish) development that was completed during the real estate boom a few years ago. It’s costing me a whopping $60/night."
You're overpaying. That apartment would be $20/night in Cebu, Philippines, that country's 2nd largest city.
Yeah, but it's all ladyboys in Cebu. I'll take the Protuguese fat chicks over that.
http://www.singledudetravel.com/2011/09/the-single-dudes-guide-to-boraca...
Might you be saying that Portugal is the Philippines of Europe? That would be funny because the Philippines is already the Mexico of Asia...
The Philippines is an interesting case study. It's an Asian-Pacific nation, and it has a high population like Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan, and four times that of Taiwan. Yet dramatically unlike those other countries, the Phillipines is remarkably a shithole muddling through to nowhere. (At least Vietnam can point to its brutal recent history to account for its low level of development, and it is developing and raising living standards very rapidly.) Why is the Philippines comparitively so unproductive, uneducated, and lacking progress? I'll posit a theory: it's because they're fundamentalist Catholics; those stupid breeders don't believe in science, even as they use a cell phone, and it's their religious indoctrination that's at fault.
In the Catholic welfare state of Guam, the church even tells people how to vote. But maybe they do that everywhere; I wouldn't know. :-)
Dude, that is 100% true. The Church is the enemy of Filipino prosperity.
I rented an apartment in Estoril in 1987. It was a nicely decorated flat, but with the entire rest of the new cement frame, uncompleted! That's right, the rest of the apartments were the cement frame, but our power and water worked. We paid $200 a month, looking back, may have been a tad high. That must have been the tail end of another boom/bust in the Iberian area. I sure loved that place though. Miss you Rita!
Where in the world is Carmen Sandiego?
Califorina?
Carmen's is down on Hwy 59.
Disturbing
The funniest part of that is at the bottom where you click to the next review:
"Best Facial"
My brother is renting a place out side of LA 2,000 sf for $1,500 a month (Placenta?). Portugal RE is still a Bubble.
You are not sovereign man you are a parasitic ameoba.
$1800 rent per month for an apartment is not absurdly cheap.
Please, oddjob, stop it with that fancy multiplication. Best leave it to the ECB's and Fed's econ PhDs to tell us what is cheap and what is expensive.
Simon Black does that every post. He find's a way to throw in "im richer than you" without coming out and saying it. He's developed quite a talent at it.
Not to defend Simon -- whose analysis is always shallow, even if cursorily accurate -- but he did say "per night" ... ie. it's not a lease rental, but a daily rate in a seaside city (in summer). What does $60/night get you in Santa Monica? Or Marbella?
I thought he said it was a condo. Imagine buying a condo and having your neighbour rent his/hers out on a daily basis. It was probably a brothel the nite before and a pirate dental lab boiling mercury the day after.
Some of us rent condos for a few days to a week or so, whether on business or holidays. I certainly do!
Far more comfortable than a hotel room and significantly cheaper than hotel suites, particularly if you need 2 or more bedrooms for whatever reason (kids, in-laws, business partners, spare girlfriends, etc). Being able to entertain 'at home' rather than in a hotel coffee shop also has its advantages.
It is for daily or weekly rates. Its also a very nice, big, and newer complex.
Are you the oddjob who trolls CNN comments with your hairbrained absurdity?
http://a2.ec-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/114/78a9721a6b9d4e88bc948eca...
i guess i was the only one who appreciated that.
The demographic decline of Europe's pauper states maybe more important than their Debt/GDP ratios. With below replacement fertility rates to begin with losing what few young people as these nations have will make these societies to say nothing of economies unsustainable. As taxes rise to pay pensions and debt servicing costs one presumes even the not so young or skilled will be tempted or forced to emigrate.
They elect leaders whose modus operandi is strangubation of the economy.
Most are getting what they deserve.
4. Gold businesses are doing well
All over town you can see these new ‘cash for gold’ type franchises being set up. It’s crazy, you’ll even see two or three of them on the same block across the street from one another. It’s like Starbucks.
Many of them are doing brisk business as locals look to raise spare cash. And the businesses are only buying gold, not selling.
-> this is an omen for me, because here in Croatia (SE Europe) in the last 1-2 we had an enormous boom of Cash for Gold stores. There are maybe 1000 stores opened in the last year (300 in the capital). Only buying (there is a high tax for gold sales). Needless to say we are also in an economic depression (every year since 2008. GDP is falling)...
Btw. Portugal is cheap, 60$ a day (for a daily rent) is cheaper than most Western European countries.
All over England too......apparently Gold is in demand everywhere. Wonder why ? Would have been surprising to have found none in Portugal really !
Same thing in Sweden. There are even commercials running on TV and radio. Unfortunately. many who sell their gold donät know the goldprice and get fooled and cheated.
Wouldn't it be funny to find that it was not the mafia or entrepreneurs behind these cash-for-gold stores but instead the respective central banks of the various countries, trying out a new, legal method of "confiscation"?
IMO, they are a vacuum cleaner for hoovering up all gold from the peasant population ... to reduce the opportunities for a barter economy après le déluge. I wonder which bank/s are ultimately behind them?
Simon Blacks' posts have gone from somewhat informative to self congratulatory pontification.
It's gotten more than a little tiresome.
You are being too kind.
Someday Simon is going to sell a book of these essays:
"How to masturbate with a keyboard."
I am actually from Porto, fortunately I'm one of those people who still has a job.
That said, I do relate to the article, but hell, I assure you that I am the minority. After 1974's revolution, the mindset changed abruptly, leftist policies swiftly ensued and from a mere 15% of GDP in Government expenditure, with high levels of fiscal expansion, ever increasing investment in "top priority infrastructures" (without even considering marginal utilities...), creation of a HUGE welfare state we now are above 50%...
We are the result of over 30 years of socialism and social-democracy with a very outdated Constitution that only concedes positive rights and where it says that the Goverment SHOULD control and provide education and health. With debt we sustained this lifestyle and the money kept pouring, everyone wants to work for the state, directly and indirectly because everyone thinks "state money is endless, everyone can run out of money except for the state", and there were allways more ways to magically conjure money, until there weren't...
I personally do not see a bright future for us, but I gave up on trying to predict what stupid people will do next.
On the other hand, I'll also assure everyone that I love Portugal, I am happy to live in one of the most beautiful european countries, people, politics aside, are generaly fantastic, especially with foreigners, I would recommend my country for anyone to visit, you will not regret it.
I wonder if any Brazilians emigrate to Portugal, (espicially via the US) or would soon consider it.
Build up some money in a US donut or landscaping business etc. for a few years and then head across the Atlantic where you might be able to buy more with your money...
"For the last several years, national government spending has contributed nearly 40% of Portugal’s GDP. In Europe, this has only been bested by (you guessed it) Greece and Ireland."
Germany, UK, Scandinavian countries all have about or above that figure. Simon obviously is too lazy to do his homework. The guy seems to be hopping madly from one country to another and learning only platitudes and stereotypes.
Lemme guess: that Switzerland is not part of the EU customs union?
How does a country fund a gov't that makes up 50% of GDP?
The rigth answer is: it doesn't. We have filled in the papers for bankruptcy 3 times in the last 35 years :-)
And of course, additionaly we're one of the countries (of the world!) with least growth in the last decade and will continue in the next one.
How is the cable TV and internet service?
Pretty good, I would say.
For about 40€/month you will get very good service.
Oh, great. Another post from Simon "The Grass is Always Greener" Black.
Let me paraphrase any article by Simon: "Anywhere is better than the place you currently live."
It is in the character of very few men to honor without envy a friend who has prospered. ~Aeschylus
Simon Black, International Man of Mystery
Most importantly is the Pussy cheap?
Yes!
she love you long time
really have to laugh at you types who brag about how much your cars, clothes, toys, gear costs you - then in the next breath crow about how "cheap" it is to dip your wick.
really says a lot about your. . . standards.
That housing is actually moderately expensive. If you are paying $60 USD per night, that means you are paying $21,900 USD per year for a decent three bedroom. That is not "cheap"...
Agreed thats roughly 1800 a month by my crappy math. I don't call that cheap even for a spacious 3 bedroom.
The re-Reconquista is coming to Portugal.
Last non-Muslim left please turn out the lights.
Absurdly cheap or GREAT VALUE FOR MONEY?... im sure its GREAT VALUE FOR MONEY ... thats what Portugal its all about.
Zero Hedge, have you been in Brazil before or anything you know is propaganda you read on the mainstream media?
Because i can assure you Brazil its MUCH more expensive compared with Germany, Portugal, Spain, United states or most western economies...and the quality of products and services you find in brazil are the worst your money can buy... Do you have any ideia about the salaries in Brazil? EXTREMELY LOW....people buy everything in 10x with interest at 150%... this is the brazil i know, maybe theres two brazils in the world, zero hedge?!
So WTF will young skilled Portuguese do in Brazil if they can even eat the brazilians who live in Portugal for half of the price they would pay in brazil :)
About Angola, or should i call it EL DORADO, its a fact evething needs to be build and High salaries are commom , but expect to pay top euros for everything... cost of living IN LUANDA... just the most expensive in the world.
Portuguese have to stay in their country theres a lot of work to do there and most im sure will do, because like i did say in the first sentence... Portugal is great value for money even during this crisis.
You find cheap prices arround the world...yes you do, but cheap in this countries dont necessary mean quality attached... as an example ... just try mexico, guatemala, colombia or philipines and pray you return home with your kidneys :)
I know what im talking about ... i travel the world and been in all countries above in the last 2 years... thats my truth... in my opinion, zero hedge you lost big writing this article... thats why i dont visit so offen your website, because sometimes i have the feeling you work for the north american goverment trying to sell the ideia everything europe is collapsing and its the end of the world... just start paying your fucking debt 16 trillion and i want to see the performance of the US economy ... thats what i want to see.
The Chinese have built ghost cities (more like concrete ghost ghettos) in Angola for the coming wave of Portuguese worker bees.
Manufacturing will be relocated to Angola where due to the coming energy crisis, 10 worker bees will do the job of 1 robot.
word to the portuguese from the cubans:
OrganopónicosPortugal is Western Europe's poorest country and it's also the least educated.Only 28% have completed high school vs 85% in Germany and 89% in the USA.
Best hope for Portugal is to return to the old national currency.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870407680457618052298964419...
Simon Black.
Man of Great Financial Mystery.
When he's not on his farm in Chile, he's criss crossing between Italy and Switzerland and now he's shagging it up in Portugal.
Ja, Baby. That's the ticket!
As always, the rich and their values. They despise the lack of austerity for the little guy. But shut their mouths about the non-austerity that banks and powerful interests get. As long as banks are recapitalized with public funds, as long as the speculative party can go on, then it's allright for the smurfs to go hungry... Sure...
Oldrepublic, only 50 % of the Portuguese have High school diploma...its not good because of the old generations but its not so bad like the wall street paper you read makes you believe.
In fact i never saw high school diplomas selling in the internet in Portugal but i saw hundreds of companies selling then online in USA... who cares about a high school diploma made in usa if you can even buy then online for 20 bucks without attend any classes !!!
also be very carefull with what you wish Oldrepublic ...if PORTUGAL goes back to the old currency, this will create a DOMINO effect all over EUROPE, wich will affect JAPAN, USA and the owners of United states (CHINA) ... you must pray for the PORTUGUESE, GREEKS, IRISH, SPANISH and ITALIANS WHO ARE THE NEXT ONES IN LINE... all to pay their debt... BECAUSE IF THEY DONT PAY THEIR DEBT YOU WILL PAY THE CONSEQUENCES no matter where you are in the world ...
Sometimes i just think to myself, maybe they should say FUCK YOU USA...we also want a world currency reserve and we will explode Europe in order to explode USA ... Just blow up the previleges north americans have for to much time... be carefull with what you wish oldrepublic :)
At this moment maybe, just maybe Portugal and the rest of South Europe are the most important regions in the whole world ... im sure they will know how to take advantage of that when the time comes ... think about it young man and EXCUSE MY ENGLISH i learn it, at a public school in Portugal ... its just my THIRD language and i dont even have a high school diploma Made in Portugal... Should i buy one online, one MADE IN USA for 20 bucks without attend any classes just to get the 89% status WSJ says north americans have :) ?!
Some of us in the states are prepared for default.
I have been to your country twice and liked it very much.
http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2011/03/25/Portugal-workforce-unschoole...
A cheap national currency will do wonders for you employment rate.
pretty expensive, they still have a lot of space to go down in prices
for years the wealthy american expats have been selling argentina. but its never the obvious choice is it?) maybe portugal is the right place to take whats left of our bernanke dollars, but $60 a night? sounds like this guy is afraid to mingle with the locals.
Argentina is for the Argentinians, and it always has been. Kirshner is making sure that will always will be the case.
Party Time in Portugal.
excellent piece. scary blueprint...
"scarey blueprint" - ha, yes, it is rather frightening how all Simon need do is substitute a different country name, tweak the cities a bit, and voila! yet another article!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKAlr3Az6Ts&feature=related
Where did you find this place to rent? I would do that in a second.
you missed a huge bullet point there:
Not quite, there are legal limits to the amount you can carry and if you are caught with even 1g of whatever drug, they will be confiscated and you will have to go to psychiatry sessions.
If it is above the legal limit (I don't have the ammount in mind, and it varies from drug to drug, heroin and cocaine being the most restricted) you will be arrested with intention to sell and you will probably get anything from 3 to 8 years in jail.
Sounds like Krugman's utopia.
"I’m renting a spacious 3-bedroom, 2000 square foot luxury apartment in a new(ish) development that was completed during the real estate boom a few years ago. It’s costing me a whopping $60/night."
$1800 a month, is no bargain.
This article shows the lack of knowledge about Portugal. About the Portuguese reality, that is very different from the tourist stand...
Portugal has more than 20% of the population under the line of poverty (less then 485€ monthly income), and if considering those with 490 or 495€... the number goes near 50%. A 10 gallon gas tank costs nearly 80€. A house rent (monthly) costs in average more than 400€.
Austerity too little too late... to whom??
Absurdly cheap... for tourists!
Gold businesses are doing well... with the population misery!
Lack of productivity youth... I wonder why???
Even "troika" is now saying the rescue programme is not of their responsibility...
This article shows the lack of knowledge about Portugal. About the Portuguese reality, that is very different from the tourist stand...
Portugal has more than 20% of the population under the line of poverty (less then 485€ monthly income), and if considering those with 490 or 495€... the number goes near 50%. A 10 gallon gas tank costs nearly 80€. A house rent (monthly) costs in average more than 400€.
Austerity too little too late... to whom??
Absurdly cheap... for tourists!
Gold businesses are doing well... with the population misery!
Lack of productivity youth... I wonder why???
Even "troika" is now saying the rescue programme is not of their responsibility...