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Guest Post: "Flash" Crashes and Government Boondoggles

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

"Flash" Crashes and Government Boondoggles

For what it's worth, the DAX is almost back to yesterday's "flash" crash lows.  I'm not sure what is going on there (Greece, sovereign debt in general, slowing economy) but it is unlikely that yesterday's move was solely related to a fat finger or rumors of a downgrade.  The Dax is now down over 20% for the year.  I think the weakening economy and horrible stock performance will further impact Germany's willingness to fund bailouts across Europe.  Yes, maybe it would help their market, but I suspect the average German is going to be more worried about sending money out the door at a time of weakness, than what is the "right" decision longer term. 

Apple actually outperformed Nasdaq yesterday.  I continue to watch this closely.  The market breathed a collective sigh of relief on the basis that Jobs retiring was built in, but it may take more than a day for this to play out. I think there is still a risk of profit taking and that triggering some "just in case it matters" selling. 

BAC.  More questions than answers.  Details of how the deal was struck don't help the story.  It's not like a team of Berkshire analysts spend 3 nights at BofA's office digging through the records and analyzing the financials.  It was much more of a Eureka moment.  I guess when you get such great terms and are seeing some of your other bank investments getting dragged down, it's a relatively easy decision.  BAC CDS is around 335.  It was a wide of 440 a couple of days ago, and printed as tight as 275 (ouch) yesterday in the immediate aftermath of the deal announcemnt.  The market for financial's remains thin.  There is usually a lot of hype around counterparty risk in the CDS market and for daisy chain defaults that is usually completely misplaced.  In the case of financials the risk is a little more real.  Hedge funds without two way collateral agreements need to make sure that they buy CDS from a bank that is likely to be around even if BAC isn't.  That limits the choices, driving the buying interest into the hands of just a few dealers, increasing the liquidity problems.  It is almost 3 years after Lehman and little has been done to address this.  If any part of the single name CDS market should have been driven to being cleared, the trading in Banks should have been one of them.  On a technical note, the CDX indices in the US were designed not to include the market makers since it didn't make sense to trade it with a counterparty that is also a reference entity.  It is too late to fix this for the current round of bank risk fears, but if we make it through, it should be addressed quickly in my opinion.  It would help reduce contagion risk, and if the bank CDS market was more transparent, it might translate into reduced bank stock volatility.  Either that or scare the heck out of naïve bank shareholders who still want to talk about book value.

We get a bunch of numbers out at 8:30.  Likely to be disappointing, but also unlikely to do much for a market that is waiting for signs of a helicopter in Jackson Hole.

At this point, I have nothing more to add about Jackson Hole, except that I have some vague recollection of Obama ranting about fat cat boondoggles.  Who pays for the Federal Reserve late summer jaunt to this great location?  Ben better not disappoint or maybe people will ask them to pick up the tab p/a.

 

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Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:16 | 1603368 i-dog
i-dog's picture

"the average German is going to be more worried about sending money out the door "

The "average German" will have no say at all in what is decided by Merkel, Sarkozy and the rest of the globalist central planners.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:30 | 1603403 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Eye-dawg, for a sleepy snoop you shure make some asstute observations.

This constant joke about what "germans" think is just so much bullpoop. On top of that, the Stox Merket is NOT a sentiment indicator. Has not been for a long time. It was when it had 20% swings in 2 decades, not in 8 months. Or 8 days. Or 8 minutes.

The Stox market was yet another saving vehicle in the buy and hold days. Now it's a place where everyone is trying to game the system from moment to momentum.

Anyways, D'Land Uber Alles, donner und blitzen and I think german people are feeling under seige with hail stones falling. Seige, hail...see? ;-)

Such is how I see it anyways.

BeAwake

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/24/precursor-03-bottom-falling-out-still-still-and-a-gander/

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 09:48 | 1603702 anyways
anyways's picture

Disgusting how ppl always spit the same shit, 70 years after WW2. Lame.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 09:01 | 1603435 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!  Does it really matter what these fucknuts say when they are simply talking amongst themselves.  More and more "average" people the world over have simply stopped participating.  Who gives shit what they say.  We need sound money as a medium of exchange and store of value.  People know it takes REAL assets to survive.  More and more people recognize that all paper and bonds in particular are NOT backed by REAL assets, they are taxes on future generations that can NOT be delivered and are simply lies. 

 

In the absence of the gold standard (or some mechanism to tie money to REAL ASSETS), there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.

Hence, the destruction of the "modern" world of FRAUD will continue in a painfully slow manner.  Hedge accordingly, nothing else you can really do anyway.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:21 | 1603385 David99
David99's picture
Ben made Hurricane from Hole will be 100 times bigger than Hurricane Irene

I hope every one has insurance policy for Hurricane Ben

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:23 | 1603390 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'More 'throw money down a hole' bailouts might be good for the stock market, but destroy the country'....well hell the only thing that matters is stocks! Screw the country, German people, as long as you get a momentary stock market pop, its all good. Dont you know anything?

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:26 | 1603397 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

BRK / BAC was quid pro quo for Schneiderman's removal by the White House

http://gawker.com/5834095/all-the-powerful-people-really-hate-new-york-a...

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:38 | 1603416 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I love how the HUD person said "we me no harm to the Attorney General of NY" but then refused to give name "for fear of retaliation." we're heading for a catastophe in europe and Obama's "got their back."

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:29 | 1603400 bania
bania's picture

speaking of flash crashes, why did gold decide to go cliff jumping just now?

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:39 | 1603419 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Someone read the Bernank speech and saw the free money spigot has been padlocked?

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 09:24 | 1603577 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It's only $30. Probably Blythe had a bad hair day.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 09:50 | 1603728 JohnG
JohnG's picture

This happens every fucking day between about 8:15 and 8:45, every day,

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:31 | 1603404 Bohemian Clubber
Bohemian Clubber's picture

totally broken market, trying to put bandaid on a wooden leg now... yeah it looks great...

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:39 | 1603417 oogs66
oogs66's picture

whole market is insane and in pain.  confusion seems high, and the governments can't do anything about it anymore

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:48 | 1603437 Arrowhead
Arrowhead's picture

most excellent analogy

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:37 | 1603413 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What a sad state of affairs...everything now hinges on what the totaly failed Bernank says in some speech today. We're no more advanced than the dark ages where the villagers nervously awaited the mage to come out of his hut and make the sun come back. 

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:41 | 1603423 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Good analogy.  It shows how fragile the global economy is these days.  Instead of news about the creation of good-paying new jobs around the world, the world waits anxiously to see if the Chairsatan will dole out some more crack pellets.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:50 | 1603448 oogs66
oogs66's picture

depressing, but sounds right :'(

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 09:07 | 1603508 Are you kidding
Are you kidding's picture

Actually it's closer to crack head welfare recipients waiting to see if and how much COLA this year.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:40 | 1603420 docj
docj's picture

Aaaaaaaand there we have it - GDP "growth" down (1.0%), CPI Inflation UP (2.4%).

Take a bow, Benron. This Bud's For You.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:49 | 1603444 Arrowhead
Arrowhead's picture

a BudLight real man of genious, that Ben

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:42 | 1603425 Nozza
Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:46 | 1603427 entendance
entendance's picture

Our defio70 just spotted bernanke in Jackson Hole...
http://www.entendance.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=737&p=18980#p18980

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 08:59 | 1603480 Bohemian Clubber
Bohemian Clubber's picture

I don't what Ben thinks while shaving in the morning but it sure as hell must be a very long time...

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 09:16 | 1603530 Bahamas
Bahamas's picture

He doesn't shave in the mornings ...duh ..unless you meant his head.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 09:33 | 1603590 mac768
mac768's picture

Now that the Central Banksters from the Fed and the ECB have "fixed" the in-official EUR/USD peg at 1.44 giveth or taketh a cent, there needs to be another valve in this system of interconnected pipes to open:

One should think the DAX with its German Industrial Gems (Siemens, BMW etc.) should vastly outperform its European weaklings and specially the CAC with its over-leveraged bank, but apparently the opposite is true.

Maybe the Germans need to give some orders to Deutsche Bank to "control" volatility in the stock market as obviously the French do with Rothschild Bank...

But on the other hand, who knows, maybe this are only some early warning signs of a disaster for Merkel in the upcoming elections...

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 09:34 | 1603623 supermaxedout
supermaxedout's picture

Its a propaganda war out there and Germany has no media power at all. All the TV the radio, the press in Germany is writing against Merkel because all influencial positions are occupied by US puppets. Its really amazing I would have never thought a few years ago how little real power the German goverment has. On the other side it is no wonder given the fact, that Germany is still a country under occupation and the US had the last fifty years to implement its secret structures in Germany.

At present in Germany it is as follows:

1) There is nearly full employment, the factories are running nearly all at full capacity. So its no wonder that there is no further growth in the last quarter in the German production since its difficult without additional workforce. Its difficult to find a company doing the job if you want to build a new house. You have to wait several months till they find the time.

2) Engineers and other qualified personel is in shortage. Qualified young people flock in from Spain and other countries to look for a job in Germanyy . German language courses in Spain and Italy are booked out since young people want to leave for working in Germany.

3) The German companies are now in a situation where they are waiting what to do. On one side business is running well and they should invest in new production facilities and hire peeople but of course they have their doubts over the future. So they wait and try to sqeeze out the existing production facilities thus no additional growth is produced.  But the present economic  level is aleady better than before the crisis of 2007/08. Taxes are flocking in significantly higher as calculated. The government is taking far lesser credit than originally expected due to the improved tax situation.

People are somehow scared because they observe the extreme volatility in the stock markets and because of the propaganda war trying to pull the mood of the German population down. They slowly realize, that the mighty US Dollar might crumble and they dont know what effect this will have on the economy as the US Dollar accounts for appx 60% of all the fiat money in the world. Which means nobody knows what is going to happen.

But bank business in Germany for the average German and small business owner is completely fine. If he needs a credit for investing or consumption it is easy to get and the rates are very low. You can get a 20 year fix interest rate mortgage for a house for about 3.8 % plus 1% payment on the principal.  It was never better and people are taking this opportunity and invest. The German retail banking sector does not have problems. Till now only 3 banks in Germany were in trouble but these were not banks normal Germans are in touch with. IKB bank a bank financing industrial projects normally - was saved by the government; Commerzbank the same, as well as Hypo Real Estate located in Ireland.

So Germans hear a lot but were not hit hard by the crisis till now.

In principle Germany is presently really an economic  paradise when compared with many other countries and of course the Germans hope this will stay as it is.

The Euro is the Euro. Germany will defend it like a lion because this is the base of the German wealth. And I dont think any country is going to leave the Euro zone because when worst comes to worst the savings of the Euro zones population is not stolen by fraudulent money printing. Of course only when the bank where one holds his savings is not going bankrupt. Savers complain a lot because the interest on the savings is so low nowadays. People are buying gold in increasing numbers as a protection for the unknown.

Everybody is waiting that Trichet is leaving the ECB. The new one Mr. Draghi is known as a tough Euro defender and not a Trojan horse like Mr. Trichet who is operating the ECB far beyond its mandate.

The DAX flash crash is just a manipulation of the market initiated by the US and executed by the high frequency trading computers run by Goldman etc. Blackrock owns from all Dax companies close to 5% (they bought it shortly before the Lehmann play was kicked off). This 5% of the Dax gives the room to manipulate the DAX. Its that simple.

 

 

 

 

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 10:04 | 1603797 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LOL!  Gonna be real interesting when Germany has no CUSTOMERS because they are all broke.  Good luck with your line of reasoning.

 

All is well in Germany I am sure.

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 11:58 | 1604506 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Thus spake the German Ministry of Truth.

Or a msm-brainwashed moron.

 

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 10:04 | 1603724 falak pema
falak pema's picture

From my humble one-man perspective, Germany is now becoming a key player in western first tier zone, as the anglo american capitalist system goes further into meltdown. Its economy is solid even if its banks are under pressure in the euro ponzi. It has two solutions :

1° Go for federal Euro play all out and try and establish euro financial hegemony ten years down the road. Remember it took Germans ten years to absorb East German pain; they CAN play it along, ensuring german style fiscal discipline in Europe as TOP dog. The down side is  : can they withstand the financial collapse in the meantime? Big if.

2° Break up the Euro, into two tier or many tier and reign supreme. Here the problem to current Germany dynamism is the loss of main export markets in EU in short term and the national demographic constraint in twenty years; Germany will lack labour. It's decline will occur therefore in ten years time as markets always anticipate.

But the legacy of De Gaulle/Adenaur, Kohl/Mitterrand handshakes is the vision of a 'federalised' Europe, without losing nation state cultures and regional dynamism... Big innovative social democratic experiment in the making resulting from traumatic experience of previous Armageddon. Indelible legacy of past. If it can maintain momentum and gain productivity improvements in south regions INCLUDING in BUREAUCRATIC FRANCE it may work. This is the key issue. Since Charlemagne days German-French cooperation is vital to Europe. France has to improve its economic performance and lead South Club Med back into a economically dynamic whole. This will require time and mega investment...

All this is pie in the sky until they find the key to resolving the current meltdown in EUrope/USA. 

According to banking analysis this is do-able upto a ceiling of 3 trillion euro in collateral in nation state fail safe structure but initially printed by ECB. EU has the economic capabililty to ensure this according to study. This analysis, although put in econometric terms, is obviously a keynesian 'experiment'; pipe dream to those who support the reductionist, decentralised, risk asset deflation theory world wide so prevalent here in ZH as prerequisite for any financial meaningful reset.

I don't know if the 'global banker's view', based on the premice that ECB can print all it wants as sole money printer of EU zone, irrespective of its tiny assets, equity bases, as its printing capability is deemed virtually limitless as base money supplier PROVIDED INFLATION stays under control in eurozone, say below 2%, is CREDIBLE. The 3 trillion Euro figure is concocted as being compatible with 2% inflation, as the NPV of Eurozone future wealth creation for different interest rate spreads and GDP growth rates deemed reasonable, therefore printable in advance by ECB on demand to kick start reconstruct.

This whole rationale of central bank printing interventionism therefore is based on Euro zone being able to pull itself out of hole in ten years through economic growth with a temporary safety net that will pay itself out through this wealth creation.

If Germany and its political class, as per elections coming and constitutional discussions, come on board (the greens and SPD already are!), it could be kicked off as of September this year. It will obviously take time to sell/implement in 17 countries...So say 2013...before its Europe wide, if the big boys kick in fast (which they will unless the world blows up in interim 2011-2012 period).

This model obviously does not include any exogenous black swan hits to euro system like China meltdown or USa meltdown which would make the growth scenarios improbable in one zone of the Trilateral economy, so incestuously and financially imbricated that it would make Pope Borgia's ghost blush with envy!

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 12:07 | 1604540 TheGardener
TheGardener's picture

Absorb East Germany? Fail.

Huge transfers ongoing. No hope , no jobs. If any, adjusted for purchasing

power pay is below pre- 1989.

 

Good luck Europa , say hello to your yoke

 

 

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 11:01 | 1604236 Debugas
Debugas's picture

even though Germany economy is sound its PRODUCTS ARE TOO EXPENSIVE for the south or east europeans now with US exports difficulties i dont see where economy could grow into

Fri, 08/26/2011 - 11:53 | 1604462 falak pema
falak pema's picture

with china, brazil, india. They have the best capital intensive industrial products. Along with Swiss. 

Sat, 08/27/2011 - 04:35 | 1606919 supermaxedout
supermaxedout's picture

Germany has no media power:

Example: Merkel opposed the intervention in Lybia by not voting with the US in the Security Council of the UN. Germany stayed neutral together with China, and Russia despite the fact that Germany is in the Nato and therefore a close ally of UK and US.      In the German media you did not find one voice supporting Merkels decision!!! Not one believe me. And this is the country Ms. Merkel is the head of state. Could this happen in any other country of the world.  Maybe in Japan or Taiwan or other countries under extended US influence.

Germany will loose its markets when the south of Europe or US is going bankrupt.

What most people do not understand, is that Europe does not consist only of the fomer Western Europe  The real growth markets for Germany is the East of Europe, Russia, China, India and other fast growing economies. In Eastern Europe alone there is enormous growth potential and open markets.  Ukraine, Poland, Belarussia, Bulgaria, Romania,  as well as Turkey are population rich countries with in part fast growing economies. So the bigger and more important markets for Germany is not Western Europe and US.

The Germany of today is not a nation with some kind of national spirit or mission ( except in football). These murky ideas are well behind. Germany is in principle only an economic society with a shared historical and cultural background.

The globalization has played into the hands of Germany since its economy is export driven by more than 150 years. Germany is no island. You can jump today in a car and drive to Peking. It might be still a bit difficult and take you about three weeks but quite easy possible. Open markets are very good for Germany since then only price and quality decides and not politics.

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