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Guest Post: The Future Of Work

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Chris Martenson, authored by Charles Hugh Smith

The Future Of Work

A growing number of workers are becoming increasingly concerned about the future viability of their jobs (if they have them) and, in many cases, that of their professions. Looking at a future increasingly defined by slower economic growth and higher energy costs, many are asking:

"What is the future of work?" 

Given the "recovery’s" stagnant job market and the economy’s slide into renewed contraction, it’s a timely question. To answer it, we must first ask, what’s the future of the U.S. economy?

In broad brush, the Powers That Be have gone "all in" on a bet that this recession is no different than past post-war recessions: all we need to do to get through this “rough patch” is borrow and spend money at the Federal level, and the household and business sectors will soon recover their desire and ability to borrow more and spend it all on one thing or another. We don’t really care what or how, because all spending adds up into gross domestic product (GDP).

In other words, we're going to “grow our way” out of stagnation and over-indebtedness, just as we’ve done for the past fifty years.

Unfortunately, this diagnosis is flat-out wrong. This is not just another post-war recession, and so the treatment—lowering interest rates to zero and flooding the economy with borrowed money and liquidity—isn’t working. In fact, it’s making the patient sicker by the day.

The best way to eliminate the signal noise of official propaganda (“The stock market is rising, so everything’s great for everyone!” etc.) and the high keening wails of Keynesian cargo cultists is to construct a model of the underlying fundamental forces that will shape the future.

The best way to do that is to glance at a few key charts.

Let’s start with debt. Clearly, the “growth” of the U.S. economy since 1980 is debt-based. Debt has exceeded growth by 136%. If debt had risen in tandem with GDP, then total debt would be a mere $22 trillion instead of $52 trillion.

The next chart reflects how every incremental increase in debt has had a diminishing effect on growth. Where $1 of debt once added 70 cents to GDP, now it adds basically nothing, or even reduces GDP.

We hear a lot of euphoric babble about households "deleveraging;" that is, paying down debt and thus setting the stage for the next ramp-up of household debt. But the reality is not quite so euphoric. Compared to the explosion in household debt since 1980, which we might term the debt elephant, the recent “deleveraging” reduction in debt is more like a mosquito.

Next, let’s look at jobs and employment. To make sure we’re getting the full picture, let’s look at several measures of employment as a reflection of the underlying economy.

This first chart looks like a steady onward-and-upward trend of job growth. The “jobless recovery” appears to be a modest bump in the road of ever-rising employment.

By other measures, however, employment hasn’t hit a bump in the road; it’s off the road and sinking into a bottomless bog. Here is the civilian participation rate, which measures how many folks in the civilian population are participating in the labor market in one way or another.

By this measure, the labor market has retraced to the level of the 1981-82 recession thirty years ago.

Next, let’s look at another, perhaps even more telling metric: private payrolls per capita, which is basically a measure of how many jobs there are per capita in the economy.

What this means is that beneath the glitter of a “rising GDP” and “rising stock market,” the economy is producing far fewer jobs per capita.

If we look at the total number of civilians and the total number of jobs, the chart looks even uglier. We are back to the levels of 1970s stagflation, just as women began entering the workforce en masse to compensate for declining household purchasing power.

This next chart is civilian employment per capita, which is similar to the previous chart of private payrolls per capita, but includes all jobs, including public-sector/government employment. Once again it shows that the economy is back to the levels of the mid-1980s, even including the rapid expansion of local and state government payrolls.

Another way to measure the real performance of an economy is capacity utilization -- how much of the potential capacity of the economy is being used. In good times, capacity is added because the existing capacity is running full-tilt. In recessions, there is not enough demand to use the economy’s full capacity, and therefore no reason to add to capacity with business investment.

I’ve drawn some lines to clarify what happened during each primary phase of the post-war era. During the stagflationary 1970s, capacity utilization see-sawed between growth and recession, tracing out a series of lower lows and lower highs. This downtrend reflected the reality that the economy wasn’t growing; it was stagnating, hitting new lows with every downturn, and never reaching its previous high-point during recovery.

After finally hitting bottom in the 1981-92 recession when Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker vanquished inflation by jacking up interest rates to 18%, the economy entered a 30-year cycle of financialization (deregulation of the banking sector and the rise of debt as the engine of growth), globalization, and technological innovation that fueled a multi-decade trend of rising productivity.

The wheels fell off the financialization and dot-com boom in 2000, and the Federal Reserve and federal government created an even more extreme version of financialization that inflated a gigantic debt/real estate bubble. Like all financial bubbles, this one burst, and once again the Fed and federal government scrambled to inflate another debt bubble.

Since the household sector was tapped out and its primary asset, the family home, had lost a third of its bubble value, the Federal government borrowed $6 trillion to bail out the banking sector and spread trillions of dollars around as stimulus and giveaways like "Cash for Clunkers."

Unsurprisingly, this injection of trillions of dollars did boost capacity utilization. Roughly 11% of the entire GDP is borrowed and spent every year now by the federal government. But just as in the stagflationary 1970s, the decline reached a new low and the subsequent rise never got close to the previous bubble high of 2006.

Now that the economy is rolling over again, capacity utilization is also declining. 

None of this reflects a healthy economy. What it does reflect is an economy that has depended on ever-greater amounts of debt to power a diminishing trend of growth, and an economy which creates fewer and fewer jobs with ever-greater mountains of debt.

This is not a bump in the road; it is the exhaustion of the entire model of growth that we have depended on for the past 30 years. Once the debt saturation point has been reached, adding more debt subtracts from the economy rather than adds to it. This is reflected in the decline of employment by every metric: total number of jobs, civilian participation, payrolls per capita, and employment as a percentage of the total population.

We are past the point of debt saturation, and so we need a new model of employment, and indeed of “growth” itself. Sadly, as discussed in a recent report, the Status Quo financial witch-doctors have only prescribed more debt and more unproductive friction. 

Unfortunately, as the above charts abundantly illustrate, the patient (the U.S. economy) hasn’t been cured; rather, its condition has gotten worse. The stock market is like a sort of makeup that has been slathered on by the Fed to give the appearance of health, but the internal measures of jobs and income (both declining) show that both the “health” and the “recovery” are illusory.

So, the key question to ask ourselves is: where will the demand for work be in a post-debt, post-"cheap oil" economy"?

In Part II: The Future of Work, we tackle this critical question and provide a framework for potential job seekers/switchers to use in positioning themselves for meaningful and dependable employment in this coming era. 

Click here to read Part II of this report (free executive summary; paid enrollment required to access).

 

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Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:28 | 1883458 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Speaking of work, can someone explain what a derivatives trader does and how it could possibly benefit mankind.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:31 | 1883472 CPL
CPL's picture

They recycle the oxygen in their offices for the plants, although the plants are more than likely plastic replica's.

 

So nothing of value will be lost once the last derivatives trader is gone.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:40 | 1883532 redpill
redpill's picture

And do not underestimate the demographic disaster ongoing in the labor market.  While we're at the same per capita employment as we were in the late 70s when more women entered the workforce, today the people losing jobs are overwhelmingly men.  Since the start of the recession the rate of industrial employment decline for men has been a percentage three times that of women.  There are all kinds of reasons for this (men still make more on average, so you save more by laying them off, and there are more of them in hard hit industries like construction and finance).

What does this mean?  It's not good.  Unemployed women tend to go back home and attempt to save costs by doing various domestic duties that they may have otherwise paid for, and try to muddle through.  Unemployed men, feeling instinctively threatened in a lack of ability to provide, are more prone to lash out angrily, take part in increasingly desperate and/or criminal actions, or at the end of the day if things get bad enough, simply riot.  This is reality.  History has shown over and over that you do not want legions of unemployed males roaming the streets unless you're looking for a bloody revolution.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:57 | 1883622 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

History has shown over and over that you do not want legions of unemployed males roaming the streets unless you're looking for a bloody revolution.

Combine that observation with millions of vets who are dumped on the streets because we can no longer afford the wars, sprinkle in a million excons we couldn't afford to warehouse, and you've got yourself a fireworks show.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:03 | 1883641 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

(not directed at you Smiddy)

But if they complain about the military then they aren't really vets anymore, right? Just want to make sure I understand all the current talking points on why brutal domestic police state repression is acceptable.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:05 | 1883649 redpill
redpill's picture

BtG, please refer to your TSA Manual Chapter 1, Section 1, Paragraph 1.  "When in doubt, consider them domestic terrorists."

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:08 | 1883664 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Future of work = Machines.

Future of Humans  = Batteries

Simple. If you are an energizer Bunny, massa will be good to you.

ORI

Me on You tube

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:11 | 1883682 redpill
redpill's picture

You'd be a rockstar at OWS.   Roll up a phatty brah

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:12 | 1883688 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Thanks redpill. ;-)

Toke-n take-n! 

ORI

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:57 | 1883909 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Its terminator time!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:57 | 1883911 zorbathefreak
zorbathefreak's picture

Good stuff...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:14 | 1883998 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

You forgot the Chinese jerks doing all the sweat jobs...We, on the otherside will scratch each others shoulder and pay us mutually $10'000.- a month...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 19:02 | 1884975 r00t61
r00t61's picture

I love The Matrix too but it makes no sense to dump energy into humans to extract it from them later via their body heat.  Humans are inefficient at converting food energy, as compared, to say, generating energy via coal, wind, solar, nuclear, the list goes on and on.

If ever there were sentient machines I think they'd conclude that humans were a "pest" species that needed to be destroyed on sight, much the same way we view mosquitos and cockroaches.  But no worries.  Humanity will live on in the form of all the entertainment it has produced and recorded for posterity.  It's too easy to rip on something like Jersey Shore or Dancing With The Stars, so instead I'll rip on all the infomercial spots produced by the Home Shopping Network.

That's what will be left to discover when aliens from the Triangulum Galaxy come to visit the Terran system.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 19:28 | 1885087 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Unless you were harvesting their dreams or just liked the taste of human flesh and the crunch of bones . Zombie economy meet Alien Predators - I think I smell a 3d Spectacular.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 21:23 | 1885391 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

I'm thinking you'll equate to about 3 quarts of high sulfur crude. Grade: sour. Sorry about your luck.

http://www.resomation.com/index_files/Page1230.htm

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:28 | 1883764 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Come on red arrow, surely they pay you enough to comment? Or you are angry and stupid enough to comment. Bust it out.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:41 | 1883818 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Lol, supporting the police state and you don't have the balls to comment. Spineless coward. Not a surprise given your philosophical position.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:00 | 1883634 pasttense
pasttense's picture

"History has shown over and over that you do not want legions of unemployed males roaming the streets unless you're looking for a bloody revolution."

This of course provides the answer to the question Chris asks about where to find employment in the future--in the police/prisons/Homeland Security sector.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:04 | 1883644 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

All the things that magically are immune from any serious discussion of cuts when it comes to the budget. Isn't that special.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:30 | 1884078 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

If the MIC and its domestic departments are the lifeblood of the printing press by ensuring the dollar/oil peg, among other things, and the printing press is the life support of the economy, then why would you ever seriously expect the MIC to be on the budgetary chopping block?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:15 | 1884422 malusDiaz
malusDiaz's picture

....GM Motors... Ford... Crysler .... whats in common?

 

They make the motors that drive the MIC...

 

Do I win a prize? I'd like a cookie plz massa!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:17 | 1884012 trav7777
trav7777's picture

thank you affirmative action!

Lord knows all the great inventions of the next 100 years will surely come from all these women, instead of a vapid consumer brand snob shopping culture.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:23 | 1884042 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Yeah history and life circumstances were SOO much better before the 1970's. I'm not a fan of affirmative action, but blaiming our current situation on women is pretty laughable at best.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:58 | 1884266 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

The inflation of the 70's, and the coming of age of the baby boomers led to HUGE real increases in 'household' costs.  Prices started their upward climb with Viertnam era inflation.   The entry of women into the workforce increased household income to partially offset these costs BUT two earner families also drofe some prices up shot up drastically as demand increased (moere new buyers) fought for a limited supply (and bid on houses with two incomes).  Commutes got longer as ''affordable' houses were built farther and farther from jobs.

Ther were many unintended effects:

In the past you could manage entry into the middle class on ONE salary - buy a house, car, save for kids' college.... after the 70's TWO earner families became the norm.  This allowed employers to throttle back on the raises a male would have demanded  to keep up with inflation.  Offshoring of jobs added to downward wage pressure.  Two income families became the norm.  With women's earnings an integral part of the household budget, most could not afford NOT to work.  Childrearing was now 'subcontracted out' by the middle class.  While the wealthy had always done so they had qualified help - the middle class looked for the cheapest possible option.   The societal costs of 'outsourced' parenting have been huge.   The US employs teachers and nurses from the third world to be nannies for upper middle class kids (economically a good deal for those former teachers and nurses but nodt so good for their native countries).  For others you have illegal imigrants, informal daycare and any other option you can think of.  

Overall, we've been conned.  In 1950 you could have a good life on one salary, worked reasonable hours, had steady employment with the promise of a pension, could put your children through college - after which they'd get a better job than you had.  Now BOTH parents work (together or divorced) and do so for longer hours.  Retirement is likely to be unwanted - a layoff in your 50's with minimal 401K 'savings' instead of a pension.  Your children are in hock for the rest of their lives to pay for a college education which too often has done nothing to make them more employable.   We have more 'stuff' but our lives aren't really all that much 'better.' Families have two cars (so both parents can get to work) dishwashers (beacuse Mom is too tired to wash plates at home after work).  TV's and computers keep kids entertained and parents distracted.  Restaurants boomed as people were too rushed to shop and cook meals at home.   You had a nominal overall increase in household income and decreases in the prices of much of the 'stuff' we buy (now made overseas) but on a net basis, we've been falling behind.  

The rich have gotten a LOT richer while the rest of us are lucky to be treading water.  Many are drwoning - no lifevests and exhausted they're going under for good.  

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 18:00 | 1884727 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

So where is the con in all of this?  Did I not consciously decide to buy the third ipad so that i could have one in the bathroom while I take my shit?  Were the cumulative misallocations of wages for the last 40 years the product of a con or were people simply poor stewards of their own resources?

The other aspect is that what you are describing was a one-off period of time...  it too was unsustainable...  the concept of being able to send all your kids to college and them earn a higher wage than you, OF COURSE THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE...  that isn't a con...

you're dancing around it...  citing some symptoms...  but you're not describing any con.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 19:00 | 1884964 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Declining wages are considered a "con," but only by the people who work for wages. 

In a market, of course, there are always two sides to these equations. 

Lower wages are better for profits.  So that's a "pro" if you benefit from increased profit and are unaffected by reduced wages.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 20:23 | 1885263 Medea
Medea's picture

What an ignorant, dogmatic response to such a thoughtful post.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:47 | 1886728 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

If you care to actually address the merits, I'm game...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 19:17 | 1885020 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

The "con" was inflation due to money printing for guns and butter. Women working was only a problem due to women being paid less. Also you ignore the peak in domestic oil production, the recovery of Europe and Japan and their entry into the marketplace with cheaper labor and new infrastructure ie various historical forces. All those things that you cite are actually the Upper Class manipulating things for THEIR benefit. It's scapegoating arguments or at best chivalrous desire to protect women from the workplace.

This has nothing to do with women working and everything to do with masterful, cynical manipulation by the rentier class (the epic bond holders and stock holders of the major Central Banks). Women working is a positive thing, outsourcing of childcare was not. Using women working as a scapegoat is a further deflection by the manipulator class to prey upon men who feel justifiably victimized by their labor being made worth less.

However, to lay the blame at the feet of the Chinese worker, the Mexican illegal or women is to miss what's happened and fall into the tried a true scapegoat trap. It's not the fault of those groups, its the fault of the same group it always is, the REAL decision makers and I don't mean their political frontmen.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:34 | 1883491 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

@TeamDepends-I think you know the answer to that. All of us in finance, whether we are trying to do the right thing or not, are blood sucking leaches. Plain and simple. We get paid to move money around.

 

It makes zero fucking sense why a financial advisor can be compensated more than a doctor.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:05 | 1883647 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Bro........spot on. It's called reading right to left. I only care what the fuckin' vig is.

My wife asks me "How was work today?" I tell her I didn't cure cancer.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:07 | 1883659 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

It's a Darwinian playground. Soon all jobs will be in finance.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:35 | 1883500 Marco
Marco's picture

Being counterparty to physical hedging and currency derivatives for actual producers is valuable I guess ... of course that's only a minute part of volume.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:57 | 1883619 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dayworld

Dayworld

The story is set in a dystopian future in which an overpopulated world solves the problem by allocating people only one day per week. For the rest of the six days they are 'stoned,' a kind of suspended animation.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:59 | 1883632 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Carousel.  You get 28 years, no more, no less.   

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:13 | 1883678 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Didn't Jabba the Hut do that to Han Solo? (I think it was over a 'debt repayment' issue)...

In any case, most of medicated America is pretty much 'stoned' 7 days a week as is...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:22 | 1883734 sasebo
sasebo's picture

They gamble with other people's medium of exchange to acquire some medium of exchange so they can buy some stuff produced by entretreneurs & their workers without producing anything themselves. Kinda like a parasite.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:31 | 1883462 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Farming?
Engine Repair?
Carpentry?
Raising chickens?

I am thinking post Local Grocery world.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:45 | 1883564 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I'm thinking more Cold War:

REINTRODUCE THE DRAFT FOR YOUNG PEOPLE!!

Unemployed? => ARMY FOR 2 YEARS!

 

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:00 | 1883633 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

How about saving costs on Medicare/Medicaid by drafting old people, preferably those who earn $1,500,000+ a year, then you cut down on Social Security payments as well. Those young people haven't paid anything into the system and aren't going to receive payouts for a long time. You want to balance the budget? Send old rich folks to war.

 

Oh right, you are probably old and want young people to be sent into the jaws of war for your personal profit. Gotcha.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:21 | 1883728 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I'm 36 :)

Nop, draft was fun! The Belgium army isn't exactly your war and fighting machine you know :)

Beer in the morning, Beer at noon, Beer at the evening!

Your BASIC 3 B's so to speak ;)

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:26 | 1883754 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Ah ok, US military is a tad different especially with multiple wars raging.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:40 | 1883803 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Hey! Don't underestimate our army!

We've been at wars to!

Just a few months ago, there was this Belgium soldier on television who said that when he was in Lybia, that he got shot at and that he could hear the bullet pass by!!!

Our minister of Defense almost had to resign because he put our armed forces into danger. That evil beast!!

I wonder when they'll make a movie from his encounter with near death.

BLOCKBUSTER MATERIAL!!!

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:28 | 1884069 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Bullets? Wow!

So now that he has carnal knowledge in the school of gangbanging, would you say he's more 'crippin' or 'bloodin'?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:39 | 1883806 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

The Belgium army isn't exactly your war and fighting machine

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6e-3dfQK7w4

That must explain the 'miserable & fat' part...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:46 | 1883857 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yeah.... said by a English moron....

you just took away the humor dude.

English farts are all what's wrong with normal people. I'm not even going to sum up everything what's wrong with those people.

I'll only sum up for what they're good at.

Here it comes:  ..... ..... .....

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:21 | 1884031 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

You are in excellent form today Sudden Debt!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:32 | 1884095 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Sorry man... Just funnin' (at your expense I'm sorry to say - so sorry about that)... But I can never pass up a good moment to insert a old Monty Python clip...

No offense - Call it a defect...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:37 | 1884135 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

For any better than ya'll are at fighting, you sure can make some nice firearms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

and waffles.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:59 | 1883925 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Just send the baby boomers to concentration camps and hand their assets to the generation they`ve sold down the river

probmem solved

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 20:51 | 1885324 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

except for all the illiterate young'uns they left behind...

probmem?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:23 | 1884034 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:25 | 1884049 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

@Waffen (above)

Looking at that avatar... I was thinking along the lines of getting work "milking cows"...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:29 | 1883464 kito
kito's picture

where the hell is your optimism dammit!!!!!!!!!!! 70 percent of americans have jobs!!!! look on the bright side!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:32 | 1883476 CPL
CPL's picture

Jobs that you obviously were over qualified for?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:45 | 1883562 kito
kito's picture

whats wrong with looking on the bright side of 30 percent real unemployment?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:47 | 1883575 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

LESS TRAFFIC FOR THOSE WHO HAVE TO GO TO WORK IN THE MORNING!!!

YIHAAAA!!!

OUT OF MY WAY BITCHEZ!!! WORKING MAN PASSING THROUGH!!!

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:29 | 1883770 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

You're a lunatic, SD;)

As the song says, "It just might be a lunatic yo lookin' for."

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:54 | 1883892 Ura Bonehead
Ura Bonehead's picture

COME ON, KITO!!  You're really pissin' on the average ZH poster's 'pitty party.'  This is the place to come and watch the world implode then look for someone to blame it on.  There are no mirrors here!  This is not a place to come to lift spirits and actually do something about it (unless you thing camping in a Wall Street park or filling your pockets with a few gold coins makes the world a better place)!!  This is the home of bitching and cup-half-empty logic, man, so don't blow it!! <he said, bitching about the bitching>

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 20:53 | 1885328 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"70 percent of americans have jobs!"

ahhh. but doing WHAT?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:32 | 1883468 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

ZIRP till 2013 and beyond guarantees a currency crisis. Benocide himself knows, and has stated in testimony, that low interest rates eventually give you mega inflation, which he falsy believes can be managed by the central bank. A money printer he is, with Deflation his sworn enemy. Fight he will the deflationary beast with the Federal Reserve note laid bare on his altar of sacrifice. Hyper-Inflation cometh

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:47 | 1883573 srsly-wtf
srsly-wtf's picture

Benny and the injets.....

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:54 | 1883608 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

bB,

My suggestion as someone who saw 30%+ yearly inflation is to listen to some of the things Hugh Hendry has said about hyperinflation. I believe his most interesting commentary was in an interview with King World News. Follow John Williams' stuff also.

I was in the US in May. Inflation had to have been 8-10%. ZIRP doesn't guarantee anything. In fact it may be starving the banks/hedge funds. See Reggie Middleton piece on MF Global. Inflationary waves followed by sudden deflationary tides is the future IMHO.

Simply said, stay nimble because there is no certain outcome.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:14 | 1883694 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Yes you are correct that hyperinflation is where they are steering us.  However, it is not inevitable that hyperinflation is where we will wind up.

Yes, following these policies through to their logical conclusion will create hyperinflation, but such an event would utterly destroy TPTB.  Now, TPTB have no intention of being destroyed, so they must be doing what they are doing for a reason, and the only reason I can come up with is to stall and buy gold.  Inasmuch as gold is being suppressed during the most cataclysmic events imaginable (European crisis, SNB intervention, etc.) and central banks are buying gold, I have to assume TPTB's solution involves gold being a really good thing to hold in the future. 

With that established, TPTB want to stay in power.  More importantly, they know they don't get to keep the gold if everything blows up.  So using logic, I must assume they will pull the plug on our current system before we reach the 1923 level of hyperinflation/currency destruction, because that would introduce a level of chaos that could unseat them and get them killed, or at least robbed of their riches. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:23 | 1883733 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

The Powes that Be have survived and thrived through the Napoleonic Era, the US Civil War, WWI, WWII, the Cold War, Hyperinflations in Argentina, Germany, Hungary, Brazil (I could go on and on here) and of course the Great Depression.

No, they WANT to annihilate all currencies to replace them with a one world currency and one world government. The signs are numerous, look and ye shall find. It's what they want, it's what they have ALWAYS wanted. If you view events through that lens then EVERYTHING becomes crystal clear.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:46 | 1884196 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Quaint - But it's still more complicated than just GOLD in this day and age (or, until we get kicked back into the DARK AGES which is entirely possible)...

Modern day NWO needs gold (for simplicity, let's call that the currency)... But it also still needs oil, & land (in this go around)...

How the lines are drawn (land) and/or how the flow of the oil is conducted... All happen to be the orchestra ensemble of this symphony... How well the 'notes' are played by each section of the orchestra is subject to variation at any given time...

Respectfully, POTEMKIN VILLAGE IDIOT

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:03 | 1883939 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Your thesis is empirically supported by the "WE BUY GOLD" signs on every corner.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:21 | 1884030 trav7777
trav7777's picture

gold is being suppressed?  WTF?

Have u looked at the price charts lately?  It ran way the fuck up before the euro crisis.  Maybe pay attention next time?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:37 | 1883469 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

The Gleaners by Millet.

 

Read Reinventing Collapse, by Orlov.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:56 | 1883616 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

hh, I prefer Corot just FYI :)

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:15 | 1883670 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Harvester Holding Her Sickle by Corot.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:16 | 1883705 rdlem
rdlem's picture

Now that's more like it. The idea of work instead of actually doing it. The Orlov made me tired.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:28 | 1884523 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

The Orlov made me tired.

indeed.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 00:43 | 1885765 rdlem
rdlem's picture

ahh shucks.....  guess I can quit high fiving my funnybone.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:22 | 1883736 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

+ 3.03 Much obliged.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:28 | 1883765 kito
kito's picture

can we get a picture of her topless?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:57 | 1884260 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

I have one thing to say...

"YOU BETTER WORK"!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2wrU2tkl38

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:17 | 1883709 Waffen
Waffen's picture

thanks for the book suggestion

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:22 | 1883732 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

BINGO!!!

With Algos taking the last .00000000001% we and the next generation will be working twice as hard to support the gleaners.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:25 | 1883747 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

No, no, they have no plans for you OR the gleaners to be around. Only useful folks who help things run smoothly. You need to be a high tech scientist or involved in the various inner circle type groups (Bilderbergers etc.) to be wanted or planned on being around. They have no use for you, you are next on the chopping block. Just continue to support the repression of the "gleaners" with the blinders on. Soon enough you will be gleaning...if you are lucky.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:01 | 1883934 Ura Bonehead
Ura Bonehead's picture

So algos/HFTs aren't "1%-ers" they're "0.00000000001%-ers."  Huummmmm....  The way I figure it, that leaves 99.99999999999% for you and me to battle over!!  I'll make you a deal.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:58 | 1883918 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Funny you should post that. The local cotton farmers harvested the fields just last week. The combines they use end up leaving a lot of good cotton in the fields. My son and I got permission to glean the cotton farmers fields. Not only did he give us permission, he offered to buy the cotton from us. We made $400 each cash for the days work.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:31 | 1883471 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

I know of 2 Pharmacists with Doctorates, a CPA, and 2 lawyers that can't find work in their profession...i keep telling them they need to become banksters, but they just don't get it and i refuse to give them an explanation.  If you wish to be naive that's your problem

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:42 | 1883545 aerojet
aerojet's picture

There is a massive glut of lawyers because too many people who couldn't do math thought they could find high-paying paper shuffler work.  They were wrong (because they are bad at numbers).  I can't explain the pharmacists or the CPA to you.  Maybe they have priced themselves out of the market somehow?  Is age a factor? 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:57 | 1883625 dtwn
dtwn's picture

The pharmacists are/will be victims of the next wave of automation, pharmacy robots.  They are faster, more accurate, cheaper, never take breaks, and don't require health insurance.

http://www.engadget.com/2011/03/10/ucsfs-robotic-pharmacy-automatically-distributes-medication-sc/

http://www.scriptpro.com/

http://www.mckesson.com/en_us/McKesson.com/For%2BPharmacies/Inpatient/Pharmacy%2BAutomation/ROBOT-Rx.html

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:19 | 1883717 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

When do the 'robot' lawyers come off the assembly line to sue all the robot doctors & pharmacists for malpractice or screwing up the prescriptions?

That's what I want to know...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:38 | 1883794 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Did you see IBM's Watson defeat the top two Jeopardy winners of all time? Beg, borrow or steal the NOVA video.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:32 | 1884092 trav7777
trav7777's picture

defeat?  LOL...destroy.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:18 | 1884419 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

LMAO...

I was watching Jeopardy the other day... The dude (who happened to be the 'all time record holder' for one day cash winnings)... A 'human' by the way... Was beating the crap out of two other dudes in some kind of Championship alumni reunion... It came down to final Jeopardy, but there was a pause to deduct a few points from his total...

Why?

Because he MISPRONOUNCED the word "Onomatopoeia" in a previous response... How fucking funny is that that the smartest guy in the room mis-pronounces that particular word???

Back in the day... I qualified to go on Jeopardy (when I was in L.A. and went for the auditions... On the same day, I qualified for WHEEL OF FORTUNE... They were both Merv Griffin Enteprises shows, so the regulations stated that you could only go on one or the other... I picked 'WHEEL OF FORTUNE' because I figured I didn't have an ice cubes chance in hell of making any $$ on Jeopardy (being that I'm just the POTEMKIN VILLAGE IDIOT & all)... So I went on, solved 2 puzzles and exited with a juice maker & scooter (that was back in the day when you 'shopped' for prizes like the ceramic dalmation)...

Anyway... We humans are ****ed... But we sure the hell are funny though aren't we? :-)

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:19 | 1884461 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

The difference between lawyers and all other professions is that we self regulate and write the laws to ensure that we have work...

Although, legal zoom (et al) plus expert systems plus wikipedia will largely rule out legal work for the margins.  What many don't understand is that "forms" or "shells" are only the starting point to drafting a complete document.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:00 | 1883928 spdrdr
spdrdr's picture

Can you think of ANY job that cannot be more effectively and efficiently undertaken by an electronic device (robotics or computer) than by a human?

We have become dispensable. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:06 | 1883956 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

A prostitute?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:35 | 1884116 rdlem
rdlem's picture

so far

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:08 | 1884363 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Give it some more time.... you've got legions of nerdy engineers dreaming of robotic women to fulfill their every fantasy (and no other work for them to do).    

The first models will be modeled on Princess Leia and Lt. Uhura.   Maybe a Wonderwoman too.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:44 | 1884636 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

the perfect citizen, one that doesn't reproduce.

the others, so expensive to dispose of.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 18:11 | 1884776 ReadySteadyGo
ReadySteadyGo's picture

Hot damn, bingo!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:30 | 1884085 trav7777
trav7777's picture

bbbut...bbbut...PILOTS will still fly, right?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:41 | 1884164 tickhound
tickhound's picture

yep... as passengers.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:24 | 1884491 GFKjunior
GFKjunior's picture

Thanks for the links. A good friend of mine graduates this year and is planning to go to pharmacy school because its an "easy 100g a year job" but I've found that there are tons of pharmacy schools that have opened in the last few years, reminds of me of the oversatuaration that lawyers face.

Does anyone have any other links to dissuade one from going into the pharm field? 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:21 | 1883729 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ aerojet  + 1

Too many lawyers...  Maybe that's why our daughter has been able to get paralegal jobs.  Cheaper than paying a lawyer to do routine paper filings, etc.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:39 | 1884577 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Nope.  Every law office is a microcosm of the economy as a whole.  You have methusala old attorney at the top that is 90 years old, dedicated himself to work because his life sucked so bad, and still decides to grace the office and collect a paycheck for his ownership interest.  Then you have the established partners that are raking in the big bucks, make ceremonial appearances only, and take credit for all work done at the firm.  Then you have the associates, who are expected to do all research, draft all documents that take any time or require any real drafting (things other than forms, e.g. deeds), and play second fiddle in court or at depos or other ceremonial appearances.  Then you have the paralegals, they do all of the heavy lifting for the associates (knocking out the core allegations of pleadings, doing discovery answers, etc.) AND draft all of the documents that don't require too much drafting talent.

Basically it works like this: paralegals > brief review/spruce up by associates on some stuff, others requires more heavy lifting by associates > partners take credit for all.

Then the payment goes like this: partners bill out work of subs for $300/hr, pay associates $20-50/hr., pay paralegals $10/hr, pay methusala tribute of $5/hr, pocket the rest.  Show up in suit tomorrow for more of same.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:46 | 1883556 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

"Bill Foster: I am not economically viable." (FALLING DOWN - 1993)

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:59 | 1883630 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

The trend is yo...

"and 2 lawyers that can't find work in their profession"

That proves you lie. Lawyers ALWAYS find work. Sometimes they have to chase the ambulance real far.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:07 | 1883660 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

Not really, it's a demographics thing and of course a macro economic thing, which proves that you are ignorant. Lawyer bashing is great and all but his point is the over all econmic picture.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:03 | 1883941 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Bring the Gold

And we hear from the legal profession. The real question is who you bill the hours to when you post? Easy to hide that shit as "research".

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:38 | 1884594 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Not too many lawyers, just lawyers who are in the wrong markets or unwilling to change area of practice...  some markets are saturated, some aren't...  however, those who can't operate on a shoestring budget might have some difficulties ahead unless they're lucky enough to be very established and represent a lot of already made fortunes (because there aren't going to be any made in the near future).

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:10 | 1883673 pasttense
pasttense's picture

People in all three of these professions can open their own businesses easily enough.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:30 | 1883772 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

open your own pharmacy? right.

think before you type son.

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:57 | 1883900 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Ha! Yeah, I wrote programs to manufacture pharmaceuticals back in the 80's. My project boss came smiling at me one day saying, the very first run produced sellable product and saved the company 2.3 mil.  You'da thought I would have gotten a bonus or something. I had to ask for a letter of commendation.

Can't imagine stocking my own pharmacy. Course, interest rates are low right now.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:05 | 1883950 BandGap
BandGap's picture

The pharmacists have to be looking at a specific geographical location or they would be employed tomorrow.  Who cares about CPAs and lawyers?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:31 | 1883473 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

We can read articles like this and see charts that show our self-destruction is imminent, but nothing will change. The masses are getting more and more ignorant by the day. We all know what is coming, but nobody knows when it will exactly happen. This is just preaching to the choir.

 

I thought the people of New Hampshire had a fucking clue until I just read that Mitt Romney is still dominating the polls in the Granite state. Come January, people of New Hampshire, you really do have the choice to "live free or die."

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:51 | 1883589 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

During my root canal today, I was talking to the dental assistant while Dr. got everything ready and me all gased up.  Her thick Russian accent told me she was not around from these parts of town. 

Turns out her grand father was heavily involved with the Bolshevik revolution and she remembers hearing stories about how her parents and grandparents just woke up one morning and their 20 year's worth of savings were just wipped out.  One morning and poof.

She made mention that much of this is repeating in the US, but that I was one of the first she talked to in the office that understood monetary history as it relates to a currency crisis based on fraud. 

The masses are indeed ignorant, but there does seem to be a slow awakening going on.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:14 | 1883690 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

her parents and grandparents just woke up one morning and their 20 year's worth of savings were just wipped out.

 

exactly, two decades living standards wiped out in a matter of hours. When this happens in the U.S., the entire world will take a giant dirt nap that we will probably never come out of in any of our lifetimes. The United States being Reserve Currency by fiat was the worst decison the world ever made. During WWII the infustrutures of first world European countries were decimated allowing the US to be the powerhouse manufacturing giant of the world for latter part of the 20th century. Now all of that manufacturing capacity sits outside the U.S... We will get war from this, there is no other way to 'level out' the playing field.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:29 | 1883769 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I don't believe a dirt nap will be the norm for all.  Dollar reserve status destruction just might be the wake up call to the message of sound money and liberty.  It's the transition that scares me tough, so I hope you are wrong.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:39 | 1883804 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

We will get war from this, there is no other way to 'level out' the playing field.

Good point.  The Chinese are being encouraged by their government to buy gold.  We are being discouraged from buying gold.  When all is said and done, we will have a much more balanced system of trade because our living standard will fall and their will rise, and the way they will get us to stand for it all is by masking the process with war.  People who don't know any better will blame the coming war(s) for the loss of living standard, when in reality, it is being engineered right now.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:53 | 1884221 Conax
Conax's picture

+1

The italics disables your greens, but that post is too good.

They will loose the Kraken to survive.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 18:44 | 1884903 trav7777
trav7777's picture

dude...china is a gigantic ponzi with so much capacity that the majority of the country is unprofitable.  You don't get what all that debt went to yet, huh?

The demand signals coming from the west by debt growth forced through the creditmoney system's inherent need for perpetual expansion were WRONG.  China is facing an all-out collapse; they will have no choice but to print to cover their own internal bad debts as they sterilized all of the reserves already.

Everyone has this notion of China as a rich nation; nothing is further from the truth.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:21 | 1883731 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

So wait... Let me back that up a little...

You mean to tell me that DURING your root canal you were TALKING???

I want to party with you my friend!

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:27 | 1883758 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

It was tough with the dental dam though, but we had a good time. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:33 | 1883781 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

her parents and grandparents just woke up one morning and their 20 year's worth of savings were just wipped out.  One morning and poof.

Rich's point is worthy of repeating.  This will happen overnight.  POOF!

The facts of what is happening are being withheld, redefined, and outright lied about so you can't get a feel for the progression of the crisis.  I'm even becoming convinced there isn't any progression, just a lurching from one incident to another as we accelerate towards the collapse.  Plan accordingly. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:41 | 1883821 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Her parents are still struggling with what currency to put their savings into the Euro, Dollars, Rubles?  I pointed her to silver and gold.  She asked, "Like futures or something?"  I told her coins would be key. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:29 | 1884534 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Plan accordingly...

---

As you can clearly see by my avatar... I'm presently engaging in the "PLAN AHEA-" process...

POTEMKIN VILLAGE IDIOT

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:33 | 1883483 devo
devo's picture

So what does part 2 say? "The future of work is trading on the NYSE"?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:46 | 1883567 srsly-wtf
srsly-wtf's picture

Day trading and pizza delivery is the end game....

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:33 | 1883485 rdlem
rdlem's picture

TPTB know that the direction isn't recovery at all but over the cliff as intended.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:35 | 1883495 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

jobs do seem to be obsolete.  looking for a job seems to be obsolete.  System-D.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:37 | 1883514 tickhound
tickhound's picture

I see automation and robots... Lots and lots of robots.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:41 | 1883534 rdlem
rdlem's picture

I see robots and sheep ... and some robot sheep.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:51 | 1883593 tickhound
tickhound's picture

and cyber lemmings too.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:14 | 1883698 pasttense
pasttense's picture

I think the world's oldest profession will still be available. (If you don't know what this is, try Google).

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:29 | 1883767 tickhound
tickhound's picture

market for both... life-like stay at home twats don't need smoke breaks.  "Lifetime warranty" Don't need google... read the fine print right on the box.  ;)

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:45 | 1883842 youngman
youngman's picture

Its the second oldest profession...the begger came first....someone had to ask for it first...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:39 | 1883523 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Self Employment! If you have 1/2 a brain...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:36 | 1883795 dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

There seems to be a market in weapons dealing. Especially if your near the Mexican border.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:45 | 1883844 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Hard to compete with Eric Holder's boys.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 16:12 | 1883988 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 And? Libtard, what is your point? It's not #'s. This is directed to the remark above you.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:33 | 1884560 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

He has no point... Neither does he have an apostrophe between the "u" and the "r" (or an "e" for that matter), on YOU'RE...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:44 | 1883526 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

This article accurately shined a light on some of the key drivers of deflation in this economy (debt, globalization, overcapacity). Unfortunately there are inflationary forces too. Fed/ central bank printing was aimed at short-circuting deflation, but has succeeded in causing inflaiton in key areas. CPI is humming along at 3.5%, and not just because of the rising cost of crude. What does this biflationary economy do to domestic business and consumers? A double-whammy of declining purchasing power. That is an unsustainable situation. 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:40 | 1883530 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

Not clear what hte point is.

BTFD?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:16 | 1883703 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

The point is, you are the dip, and your pointy head is heading straight down.

Think picket, and Big Ben & Co. are the picket pounder.

But, if you can't figure this out yet, you deserve to be holding up O's "green shoots" and being dumb-money for Cramer....

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:43 | 1883542 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Oh by the way. Starbucks announced price hikes on drinks today. Same day crude cracks 100. Happy new economy. 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-16/starbucks-raises-prices-on-drin...

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:45 | 1883557 srsly-wtf
srsly-wtf's picture

neither one counts....

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:43 | 1883547 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

 drug dealer, bootlegger or bookie

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:44 | 1883551 srsly-wtf
srsly-wtf's picture

Great analysis!  So it appears debt needs to go to infinity to create $1 of GDP at this point...What is the capacity of Ben's printer?

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:52 | 1883596 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Call PBoC! That's where he buys the Fed [ INK ] , from! Good post.

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 14:58 | 1883572 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

All these charts show are random historical aggregates based on faulty thinking and proving nothing. One can misuse these charts to come up with all kinds of absurd conclusions. For example, the unemployment situation is much less dire than it was 50+ years ago, when the civilian participation rate was so much lower. Or, we can say, that debt creation process is running nearly optimally, as it continues to bring a positive contribution to GDP while not being so excessive as to cause GDP to drop.

But how do you measure "growth" in an economy with heterogeneous capital goods, not to mention heterogeneous people? If people value leisure, a scarce economic good, why is it not included in GDP? Why is sweeping my own floor not included in GDP?

If a mother works at rearing children, is she a "participating" civilian or not?

>Where $1 of debt once added 70 cents to GDP, now it adds basically nothing, or even reduces GDP.

And yet this does nothing to inform me on whether or not I should borrow money to engage in a certain venture.

This article seems to be much ado about nothing. 

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:11 | 1883672 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Your contracting buying power is the tell. 

He did not show the charts that confirm that real median income for men has decined by 30% since 1980. We know what's happening with housing assets. Retirement and health benefits in decline and DC is debating not if but when and by how much. 

A society with declining standard of living is not in "Growth" mode. 

Lotsa luck

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 15:30 | 1883774 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>Your contracting buying power is the tell. 

Many people feel that way. But there's no scientific or objective way to measure that. Some goods go up, while others go down. Megabytes of storage are far cheaper nominally than 30 years ago. Someone who loves downloading 1 million songs may feel their standard of living has increased. There is no way to establish an exchange ratio between a dollar today and a dollar 30 years ago.

I don't dispute that the economy is fubar. My point is that playing with charts and numbers doesn't confer an understanding of economics. Only actual understanding can do that. What's the right way to fix the economy? Based on these charts alone, you'd think more stimulus to create jobs would help fix things.

 

Wed, 11/16/2011 - 17:43 | 1884629 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

I don't dispute that the economy is fubar. My point is that playing with charts and numbers doesn't confer an understanding of economics.

In some ways, perhaps you're right... After all, "understanding" & "economics" are probably two words that should never collide in the same sentence...

But why fret about the semantics? After all, when you get to the FUBAR part (which you don't dispute), it soothes the nerves to start breaking a bunch of shit... Wouldn't you agree?

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