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Guest Post: A Glimpse Into The Future Of The Stock Market And Dollar

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds

A Glimpse Into The Future Of The Stock Market And Dollar

The "accident" many have been waiting for has finally happened, and it's called Europe. That doesn't bode well for the U.S. stock market.

A lot of technical analysts and financial pundits are expecting a standard-issue Santa Claus Rally once a "solution" to Europe's debt crisis magically appears. There will be no such magical solution for the simple reason the problems are intrinsic to the euro, the Eurozone's immense debts and the structure of the E.U. itself.

We can fruitfully start a speculative look into the future of the U.S. stock market and dollar with a quote from John Mauldin's book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything:

Economic theory tells us that it is precisely the fickle nature of confidence, including its dependence on the public’s expectation of future events, which makes it so difficult to predict the timing of debt crises. High debt levels lead, in many mathematical economics models, to “multiple equilibria” in which the debt level might be sustained —or might not be.

 

Economists do not have a terribly good idea of what kinds of events shift confidence and of how to concretely assess confidence vulnerability. What one does see, again and again, in the history of financial crises is that when an accident is waiting to happen, it eventually does. When countries become too deeply indebted, they are headed for trouble. When debt-fueled asset price explosions seem too good to be true, they probably are. But the exact timing can be very difficult to guess, and a crisis that seems imminent can sometimes take years to ignite.

The accident has finally happened, and it's called the euro/European debt crisis. I see a lot of analysts trying to torture a Bullish interpretation out of the charts, so let's take a "nothing fancy" chart of the broad-based S&P 500 with five basic TA tools: Bollinger Bands to measure volatility, relative strength (RSI), MACD (moving average convergence-divergence), stochastics and volume.

 

 

If we use Technical Analysis 101 (basic version), a number of things quickly pop out of this chart--and none of them are remotely bullish.

1. This market is not even close to being oversold. Bulls are hoping that the selloff has created an extreme of negative sentiment, which would be a reliable indicator that the market is about to rally. But there is no evidence of such an extreme, and the VIX/VXO (not shown) is also not at an extreme.

Rather than an extreme of negative sentiment, we see complacency, and a long way down to reach extremes in RSI and stochastics.

2. The 200-week moving average (MA) has offered picture-perfect resistance and support. The entire August-September period of wild swings of volatility can be seen here as a struggle around the 200-week MA.

In a classic retracement, the SPX shot up and recovered the 50-week MA, but failed to hold that level. Now it is heading back down for another retest of the 200-week MA. Only this time the chart is significantly weaker than in September, and the low-volume "oversold/hopium" rally in October was technically underwhelming.

3. Another clue that supports the notion that the 200-week MA will fail to hold this next text is the beautiful (to technicians) complex head-and-shoulders pattern which is made up of a shallow HS triple top formed from March to August of this year, and a second outer left shoulder formed in November of 2010.

The corresponding right shoulder was traced by the October rally that just rolled over. This completes a long-term head and shoulders topping pattern.

4. The MACD is extremely negative, being well below the neutral line and rolling over into a bearish cross. Coincidentally, the stochastics also rolled over in a bearish cross.

5. Price tends to alternate between the Bollinger bands; rallies will rise to the upper band and push it higher, while declines will fall to the lower band and ride it down. Thus the lower band is a reasonable initial target for this decline. The problem for Bulls is that this target is well below the 200-week MA, meaning that hitting the lower band will mean the 200-week MA will be decisively broken.

If price does fall to the lower band, we can anticipate an oversold rally back up to the 200-week MA, followed by a renewed plunge to new lows.

An insightful technical analyst who prefers to be known only as "Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh" shared two very long-term charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the U.S. dollar. As I have noted here many times, the current era has seen the DJIA and the dollar on a see-saw, meaning a falling dollar has corresponded to a rising stock market, and voce versa.

These charts are remarkably self-explanatory:



The implications of this chart are not exactly Bullish, as it targets a long-term bottom between 1,000 and 600.

Turning to the U.S. dollar, our Chartist Friend observed, The monster decade long head & shoulders on the DJIA is well documented, but I have yet to see anyone other than myself make a connection between the DXY mid-90's bottom and the bottom that it is forming today."

 

 

 

 

 

 

Our Chartist Friend from Pittsburgh has noted how a classic 5-point pattern may be repeating, which targets the 86-88 level in the DXY near-term. Longer term, this chart suggests a rally of much greater duration and vigor than most analysts dare extrapolate in the current dollar-Bearish climate.

 

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Sat, 11/26/2011 - 17:56 | 1916001 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Good post... worth noting oil's strength into the close friday and ES weakness.. something brewing - http://hedge.ly/vSeW0w

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:22 | 1916064 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

Wht are you calling it an accident?

As much as an accident as AIG was dude.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:29 | 1916228 max2205
max2205's picture

So if I get 50,000 cash out of the bank, will I be able to buy anything with it.

Perplexing

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:45 | 1916303 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

"MACD below the neutral line and rolling over..."

Well..., it happened that way in March of '09, and the rest is history. Hard to rely on technicals when the markets are so manipulated and bogus. Just saying...

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:55 | 1916363 Johnny Yuma
Johnny Yuma's picture

Looks like you don't know how to use the MACD... In March of '09, the MACD was in an extreme oversold area and created a bullish divergence that got "everyone" long at that point. The MACD currently is at a very high level even though it's below the zero line. This is typical for a retracement in a bearish market cycle. By the way, it's ridiculous to think that the market is manipulated. No one is bigger than the market, not even the Fed which is why we've seen them lose their grip on the equity markets even though they are still conducting POMO and other market operations...

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 21:13 | 1916394 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

A thousand pardons Bounty Hunter..., it surely was oversold at the time. As to whether the FED has lost their grip is still very much up in the air, and the subject of this and many other hotly debated threads. Unlike yourself, I am very unsure that the can has been kicked as far as it will go. That is what brings me here.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 21:43 | 1916451 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Not manipulated? That's absurd. The PPT, POMO's, CNBC propaganda, hype for IPO'S like GM, etc., the 'stress tests', GE hiking the dividend right on the announcement of the first EU stress test, the very meme of buy-and-hold, the notion that stocks are the best long-term investment, etc.

It's all manipulation, man.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 02:31 | 1916976 i-dog
i-dog's picture

... and, on top of those points you mention, the Dow itself is priced in dollars (which are heavily manipulated). Plus, it is further adjusted from time to time to replace falling stocks with rising stocks.

The Dow is not an independently analysable variable. This charting "might" be more useful if it were conducted with the Dow priced in gold.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 13:37 | 1917682 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

 This article ought to appeal to your “inner scientist” and your ability to analyze a problem logically based on empirical evidence. 

Check out the USD Half-Life Chart and how closely the data fit the classic logrithmic decay curve found in radioactive isotopes. 

It would seem Nature prevails ... even in a world rife with currency manipulators.

===========    

November 14, 2011

Europe Crumbles

As the wheels come off in Europe, be prepared to take advantage of any pull-backs in physical gold, silver, platinum, and in mining stocks.

Volatility is high as rumors circulate about the latest bailout plan, change in leadership, and massive public demonstration. Do not let this fool you: governments will create the currency to kick the can down the road. It's a game of musical chairs, and nobody wants the music to stop on their watch.

But it's not an all-or-nothing game, either. Especially in Europe, there are many possible outcomes: dramatic restructuring into a United States of Europe with countries essentially devolving into provinces; Germany pulling out and leaving the rest of Europe to fend for itself; some or all of the PIIGs getting kicked out of the euro and reverting to their former currencies; and so on. What all of these scenarios have in common is massive currency debasement.

Bad debts have to be liquidated, one way or another. And while that sounds deflationary, it will trigger currency creation in unheard-of proportions as the "too big to fail" banks, corporations and governments are kept afloat. 

Keep an eye on the half-life of the dollar

There is plenty of room at the bottom of this chart for a gradual default on all the debts, public and private, that can never be paid back in honest money. But don't be surprised when at some point, maybe next week, maybe next year, or maybe next decade, the markets suddenly wake up and smell the coffee – and realize that they have been conned. By that time, you want to be as far away from fiat currencies as possible.

Also expect a gradually tightening noose of capital controls, increasing taxes, and encroachments on civil liberties as standards of living fall. All these things will be done "in your best interest", to "create jobs", to keep you "safe", and make sure "the rich" pay their "fair share". This gradualism may also give way suddenly to a declaration of war, a state of emergency, martial law or an outright dictatorship – possibilities you have to prepare for.

Watch for buying opportunities and continue to accumulate physical gold, silver, platinum and high quality resource stocks. Diversify your geopolitical risk by having some of your savings (precious metals and investments) outside of your home country. Have a place which you and your family enjoy that you can slip away to if necessary. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst!

http://pricedingold.com/2011/11/14/europe-crumbles/ 

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 03:10 | 1917010 johnu78
johnu78's picture

The PPT should have been disbanded by Congress in September '08 for their market rigging practices!!!

 

-John
http://johnu78.blogspot.com/2011/10/mosin-nagant-reasonably-priced-rifle.html

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 12:32 | 1921173 Johnny Yuma
Johnny Yuma's picture

"Not manipulated? That's absurd. The PPT, POMO's, CNBC propaganda, hype for IPO'S like GM, etc., the 'stress tests', GE hiking the dividend right on the announcement of the first EU stress test, the very meme of buy-and-hold, the notion that stocks are the best long-term investment, etc.

It's all manipulation, man." 

Spoken like a true rookie... It's blatantly obvious that you don't understand what I meant. Sure, there are attempts at manipulating the market however, nothing has been able to keep it's grip on the markets...

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 22:14 | 1916527 Barry Freed
Barry Freed's picture

You don't have to be bigger then the market to manipulate the market.

If I have my thumb on the scale, I'm not bigger then the scale, but I'm manipulating it.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 22:44 | 1916593 akak
akak's picture

Good point.

In addition, one does not need to exercise total control of a market (or anything else) in order to effect influence over it and within it.  This is similar to some of the specious and idiotic arguments against the idea that the price of gold is officially (but surreptitiously) manipulated: "If they are manipulating it, then why has the price been rising?"  Who says the price would not be rising even faster if there weren't any manipulation occurring at all?

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 10:44 | 1917294 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

I trust everyone remembers what Goldman Sachs said when they set the Feds upon Sergey Whats-his-name over that "trading" software he "misappropriated".

“The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways,” Facciponti said, according to a recording of the hearing made public yesterday. “The copy in Germany is still out there, and we at this time do not know who else has access to it.”

As opposed to manipulating markets in fair ways?

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 00:57 | 1916875 gerryscat
gerryscat's picture

Actually a large percentage (50% if I remember right, NYSE) trades via Goldman Sacks, so they know what is going on and can manipulate with that knowlege. And Kramer is famous for saying he only needed a few million to push around some stocks, what would a few billion do with the S&P? Plenty. 

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 11:11 | 1917315 Tom Green Swedish
Tom Green Swedish's picture

The market went up on March 10, 2009 because the Uptick rule was going to be reinstated.  Now the MACD is like a trend indicator and if it can't get about 0 and stay above zero thats bad news.  Of course there is hardly a way for it to know whether it will stay above zero for an extended period of time thus indicating a rally, short of quick rapid upturns or downturns.  The recent IMF blunder of the 800 billion dollar bailout might change things to that line though.  Its all about the news, the indicators only confirm or do not confirm time cycle trends. RSI , Bollinger bands and Moving Averages, and maybe MACD are the only ones worth using along with Candlestick analysis.  The rest can be thrown in the trash.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 12:53 | 1917670 svoboda59
svoboda59's picture

MACD oversold ?

MACD is not a stocastic indicator !!!

Pls go back to TA 101

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 07:34 | 1917140 tooktheredpill
tooktheredpill's picture

technicals are good mainly because everyone else relies on them

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 22:13 | 1916524 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

calmer'n you are, Dude.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 23:19 | 1916664 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

Its in there somewhere. Let me take another look.

Tue, 03/27/2012 - 05:22 | 2293670 jaffa
jaffa's picture

An alternative and more plausible theory goes that the Dollar Sign $ is directly borrowed from the sign used to represent the Spanish Peso which is in fact a $ and is said to come from a representation of one of the Pillars of Hercules with a motto ribbon as depicted in the Spanish Coat of Arms. Thanks. Regards, Winfield Estate

Wed, 03/28/2012 - 08:56 | 2296890 jaffa
jaffa's picture

The stocks are listed and traded on stock exchanges which are entities of a corporation or mutual organization specialized in the business of bringing buyers and sellers of the organizations to a listing of stocks and securities together. Thanks.
Regards,
rv dealers

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 11:00 | 1917307 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

gee, i wonder what that could be? hey look! war in the oil rich Middle East again! Never have so many of our cherished freedoms let alone our entire way of life been destroyed by so few people. it is indeed "the oil curse." the irony that it could bring about the destruction of mankind should be lost on no one. "Atlas Shrugged" as they say.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:04 | 1916013 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

That DXY chart is something three words from Bernanke can render meaningless.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:10 | 1916030 johnu78
Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:26 | 1916217 Mariposa de Oro
Mariposa de Oro's picture

This American ALWAYS skips it!  I don't understand why any thinking human would willingly put themselves through that.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:01 | 1916169 fonestar
fonestar's picture

People on the right shoulder, watch for falling dandruff!

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:04 | 1916015 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Seems like everybody keeps looking at the equity markets. I think the big story shortly even (and especially in the U.S) will be the bond market and then confidence in the $. That will make stocks look like a store of value.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:36 | 1916086 devo
devo's picture

Bingo.

This is when gold will shine (and be confiscated)

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:07 | 1916286 Michael
Michael's picture

(and be confiscated)

400,000,000 personal fire arms says otherwise.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:16 | 1916300 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Arms are for hugging

your guns

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:27 | 1916319 Michael
Michael's picture

Improper grammatical usage not withstanding, I've been waiting for positive confirmation of complete and total economic collapse events to answer some nay-sayer people I encounter on a daily basis, did the collapse happen today?, why yes it did. The Eurozone domino has reached the point of no return with complete and total collapse inevitable. It can't be revived at this point in time, game over. Thank goodness I have a spell checker, although I find I need it less and less these days.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:56 | 1916365 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Improper grammatical usage?  Have you never seen an "Arms are for hugging" bumper-sticker?  "Your guns" is our hilarious punch-line.  What is spelled incorrectly?  We are not sure what you are waiting for, but it seems to us that the vast majority of people who visit this site know that the crapstorm is right around the corner, possibly Monday.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 23:09 | 1916646 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i think michael was being self-deprecatory.  it's a pretty good slogan though perhaps vulnerable to the old rifle/gun fighting/fun ambiguity. 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 23:24 | 1916676 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Pretty good?

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 21:17 | 1916405 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Why do you believe the Euro is dead? Most likely the Euro will free fall to an extreme lower level to the dollar,pound and yen. At that point I believe Euro debt will default. If you are claiming the lower Euro is a dead Euro I agree, however the Euro will still be used. This will most likely unfold as Argentina did. Any thoughts?

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 21:35 | 1916433 akak
akak's picture

This will most likely unfold as Argentina did.

For the last several years, I have also come to feel, and believe, that the Argentine economic and currency collapse of 2001-2002 is by far the closest analogy to what is going to be experienced in both the USA and Europe --- not a total collapse of the respective currencies, merely a 75-90% decline in the values of both the US dollar and the euro over a roughly one-year period (which may not coincide precisely for both currencies).

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 21:52 | 1916472 Michael
Michael's picture

$600 trillion of worldwide credit derivatives collapsing has that affect.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 23:55 | 1916736 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Anyone here looking at the chart for TLT - the iShares 20-year T Bond ETF?   The long bonds look like a mega bubble.  The TLT is up about 30% since this summer.  

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 23:21 | 1916670 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

400,000,001

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 08:49 | 1917172 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

In the process of auctioning/selling off some 40 guns. Even in this economy there is no shortage of buyers.  My local gunshop is hopping and now stocks probably 50% paramilitary gear. Was actually thinking of buying out a retiring gun shop owner in town. 

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 11:30 | 1917346 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Did he say confiscated from citizens?  NY city vaults store 70% of the world's gold.  Let that sink in.  That stored gold is sovereign gold.  Germany, Japan, IMF, et al. will never see their gold again, according to Jim Rickards. 

No, it won't be our measly portion of gold confiscated, for the reason you mention, but that's not to say we won't see a new 90% sales tax if sold through 'official' channels. 

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 14:22 | 1918001 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

So when your relatives, friends, neighbors, etc turn you in for being a gold hoarder and they send a swat team to arrest you, you'll whip out that gun and get blown away before you can get a shot off?

The only way that 400 million guns will do any good is a massive coordinated revolution, like the Revolutionary War.  

Short of that, forget it.   One of you against several of them is a losing deal every time.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 21:32 | 1916430 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

 

 

This is when gold will shine (and be confiscated)

 

 

Molon Labe, MOTHERFUCKERS!

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 23:27 | 1916683 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

MOLON LABE! 

I love it.  But the phrase always makes me nervous.  Ballsy as hell, but it still didn't quite work out for King Leonid. 

All Mr. Holder needs against me and my (icon)-47 is an ATF agent with night vision and a Heckler Koch MP5.

 

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 01:24 | 1916917 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

 

Well true...so disperse your metals and hope for the best. Frankly, my game is to do the minimum necessary and withdraw from the system.  Nothing overt, just a kind of Ghandi-esque disinterest.  And still, if Mr. Holder does as you say, well, the .gov hasn't won a war since '45...

...what makes you think they can kill off/suppress say 20 million Americans? But I don't think it will come to that. Hope not!

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:41 | 1916107 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Question: can both the US credit markets and the stock market to go down at the same time?

If so, then there will be no store of value (gold?) left as the money starts disappearing down the deflationary vortex. It is not M1, it is M3 so once the deleveraging picks up the speed.. 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 21:29 | 1916425 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Very good question and I think the answer is yes. Currently we still see monies moving to credit when the equities move down, however, in the past as governments, states, companies fail the money will move as they say under the mattress in the form of debt repayment and commodities. As many articles here point out, the turning point will be any ones guess. As in the past there is a panic at some point that those in power can not stem because they were in charge even if they made the right decisions. Once full faith and credit are lost the road is long and hard to recovery as history tells us. Many a PHD thesis is being planned on just this event.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 03:14 | 1917014 GtownSLV
GtownSLV's picture

They could but they probably won't. I've been running through scenarios and the most likely outcome is the US credit market has several weeks to months to keep inflating as world equity markets plummet. This goes on for as long it takes the EU destruct. When enough wealth is destroyed world wide the US bond market bursts and WW3 starts shortly there after. If you look at World news you can see sides are already starting to get drawn up.    

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:39 | 1916244 YC2
YC2's picture

just one note - bonds are higher in the capital structure in a corp, so they would always be a "store of value" over equities.  For this reason, I am guessing you mean govt bond market, right?  

I have been turning this one over in my head, how debtholders could take a hit on the govt side, then affecting the corp bonds and corp equity.  Would be odd if govt bonds were wiped out but corp equity stayed in the game.  Welcome to planet starbucks, to quote fight club.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:05 | 1916018 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

There will be no such magical solution for the simple reason the problems are intrinsic to the euro, the Eurozone's immense debts and the structure of the E.U. itself.

Euro??? EU??? All fiat currencies have been a giant ponzi since almost 100 years now. debt plus interest can only be served with more debt because money = debt. the only difference from lets say 1970 to now is: the ponzi nature is getting obvious in slo-mo.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:15 | 1916042 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

yeh like we have no problem here? what has been fixed?    anything?    and now what is it, next week or so, they have to make a upward adjustment in the debt ceiling.......again........

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:27 | 1916057 akak
akak's picture

All fiat currencies have been a giant ponzi since almost 100 years now.

A helpful hint: the word "since", plus "X number of years", by themselves are nothing but gibberish in English.

What you want to say here should be either "Since almost 100 years ago now", or preferably, "For almost the last 100 years now".  I've noticed that non-native English speakers (or writers) very often have a particularly difficult time grasping the use of the word "for" when speaking (or writing) in English about a time interval in the past extending to the present, or using the word "ago" when referring to a particular point or interval fully in the past, but those two words are integral to speaking about past time properly in English.

Carry on.

 

PS: I agree with your sentiments here completely, by the way.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:33 | 1916085 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

Scheiße, I have been thinking all my life (sic) that present perfect 'I have been...' expresses 'started in the past and lasts until now', no matter if I say ago..now or ..since.

I am confused now. But thanks for the hint I will do my best endeavours and learn.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:26 | 1916222 Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

I'm not a grammar teacher, but do think common usage is a bit more subtle than suggested above. For example, if a doctor says, "how long has your foot been hurting?", it would be very common to reply, "since yesterday."

Saying "since three days" would not be said, but "since three days ago" would be okay. Also okay would be "since November 20".

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:40 | 1916233 akak
akak's picture

Yes, "since" works in your examples because in each case you were referring to a particular point in the past, e.g. "November 20th", or "yesterday", or "three days ago". 

"Since three days", by itself however, is meaningless.

 

(PS: If somebody who speaks Spanish could give me a similarly concise explanation of the different contexts in which one uses "por" versus "para" (both of which mean "for" in English), I would be much obliged --- in that case, I am as constantly confused, not being a native speaker of Spanish, as so many non-native English speakers are confused by "for" and "ago" in relation to speaking about time.)

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:27 | 1916318 Hacked Economy
Hacked Economy's picture

"Por" is used to communicate:

- "by", such as "I like to walk by that pathway" (Me gusta andar por aquel pasillo)

- "because of", such as "thank you for [because of] your help" (Gracias por su ayuda)

- "through", such as "through the hole" (por el oyo)

"Para" is used to communicate a sense of direction or purpose, such as "this gift is for me?" (Este regalo es para mi?)

Class dismissed.  :)

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:54 | 1916361 upWising
upWising's picture

The mind "thinks" grammatically in one's strongest or "mother" tongue, and then, at times, translates the words into the target language with mixed results.  

If you think POR and PARA are nightmares in Spanish,  take the word HACER in Spanish which translates (inexplicably) into to "DO" or to "MAKE" in English::

DO dinner  vs   MAKE dinner
DO the dishes  vs  MAKE the dishes
a DO-over   vs   a MAKE-over
DO-UP the room  vs  MAKE-UP the room

And don't even get me started with all the gazillion uses of GET:

get over it
get through it
get into it
get under it
get out of it
get used to it
get around it
get above it
 etc. etc etc.

MUCH respect to the thoughtful and eloquent writers here who struggle with English (native English speakers included).  It is NOT easy! 

 

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 05:36 | 1917081 jez
jez's picture

take the word HACER in Spanish which translates (inexplicably) into to "DO" or to "MAKE" in English

=============================================

Inexplicable perhaps, but it's the same story in French (with the verb faire) and German (machen). Both can mean either to make or to do.

I wonder how the Spanish, the French and the Germans cope with the British English expression, "to make do".

"I'm making do" means "I am coping with something less than ideal." In fact you can even bring in "to be" and "to have" as well, giving you four common verbs in five consecutive words, e.g. I am having to make do with this lousy laptop.

You have to feel sorry for students of English, sometimes.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 10:55 | 1917300 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

I teach this in my Spanish classes like this: the present perfect refers to something that happened in the indefinite past, but is still under consideration now, at the present time (The FED has been robbing us forever.).  

If you put an exact time of occurrence on it, then it moves into the preterit (Corzine stole billions 3 months ago.).  

Sometimes, though, if the occurrence happened in the very recent past, say, this morning, the time will be named (The Bernank has announced this morning that the FED has increased printing like no other.).  Hope this helps.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:45 | 1916121 Kayman
Kayman's picture

akak

proper pronunciation pusillanimous pussycat

If you understood the message, why quibble with the scribbling ?

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:35 | 1916219 akak
akak's picture

1) I was not in fact sure that I understood his message;

2) Even if I did understand his message, it is almost certain that some fraction of the readers/posters here did not, due to the vague and incorrect grammar.

Contrary to the incoherent musings of certain Neanderthals and linguistic know-nothings here and elsewhere, proper grammar is not just some sort of fussy frippery or extraneous luxury; it is essential to the clear and proper conveyance of thoughts and ideas.  But I would not expect the ever-increasing number of dumbed-down, poorly educated Americans to agree with that assertion, as self-evident as it would have been to earlier (better educated and vastly more literate) generations.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 22:44 | 1916599 kayl
kayl's picture

@akak

The ETAS or English Tense Aspect System is never taught in school, and several generations of grammarians have not been able to describe it. It involves lexical aspect, grammatical aspect, and their interaction with static and dynamic verbs in English. People learn it by usage in their native languages.

The most complete and detailed description is found in Bull´s Framework (Bull´s Time, Tense, and the Verb 1960) or explicated in Tregidgo (1974).

Ago and Now as an addition to a sentence are completely redundant in certain contexts and required in others. You are clearly a blowhard.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 23:23 | 1916673 akak
akak's picture

It is unfortunate that you feel that my sincere and honest desire to help a non-native speaker with a particularly difficult aspect of English somehow makes me a "blowhard".  Thanks for stepping up and declaring yourself another proud know-nothing who apparently believes that grammar, and standards in general, don't matter.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 05:05 | 1917035 kayl
kayl's picture

Sincere? Honest? hardly.

If I didn´t think standards were important, I wouldn´t be teaching them. Someone has to teach grammar, while proud know-nothings such as you complain about it.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 05:51 | 1917088 jez
jez's picture

Akak: are you familiar with Orwell's essay, Politics and the English Language?

I think you might like it. It's here:

http://orwell.ru/library/essays/politics/english/e_polit

Extracts::

A man may take to drink because he feels himself to be a failure, and then fail all the more completely because he drinks. It is rather the same thing that is happening to the English language. It becomes ugly and inaccurate because our thoughts are foolish, but the slovenliness of our language makes it easier for us to have foolish thoughts.

When the general atmosphere is bad, language must suffer. I should expect to find — this is a guess which I have not sufficient knowledge to verify — that the German, Russian and Italian languages have all deteriorated in the last ten or fifteen years, as a result of dictatorship. (Orwell was writing in 1946.)

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:45 | 1916255 emunah73
emunah73's picture

Well, I'm also non-native English speaker and I would welcome such a comment with a great gratitude. We are here to learn and grow, aren't we? For us, non-native speakers, many expressions seem natural in English when they are like a screeching chalk on a board for a native's ear. How else we can find out if not thanks to someone's polite remark?

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:50 | 1916261 akak
akak's picture

Thank you, Emunah.  You have grasped my point exactly.

When I am traveling in Spanish-speaking countries, I always hope that native Spanish speakers will correct my incorrect grammar or usages, although I have found many who will not, or who will apologize for doing so.  There is, however, in my mind NO NEED to apologize --- just the opposite, they are doing me a favor in teaching me to better speak their language! 

Are so many people's egos so fragile that they are unwilling to be shown to be incorrect?

I am sorry to have sidetracked this thread to this degree.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:43 | 1916338 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Deleted by poster for not wanting to get TOO far off topic.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 22:39 | 1916589 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Same experience here in the USA.  I currently live in a predominantly Latin barrio, and I'd practice my Spanish except that everytime someone fluent hears me speak Spanish, they reply en Ingles.

I think most folks don't bother correcting mistakes because if they understand you, there's not much need.  Restricting yourself to "proper" grammar is just adherence to tradition.  Language is in a state of constant change.

Thu, 03/29/2012 - 05:12 | 2299894 jaffa
jaffa's picture

A stock market or equity market is a public entity for the trading of company stock and derivatives at an agreed price these are securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately. Thanks.
Regards,
cosmetic dentist

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:08 | 1916027 DannyTX
DannyTX's picture

If the Dow goes down to 600 to 1,000 as he suggests there will be blood in the streets. 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:33 | 1916235 max2205
max2205's picture

IBM will be a screaming buy at $10.00 per share

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:35 | 1916328 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

It will be an even better buy at $1.25

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 23:25 | 1916678 philipat
philipat's picture

By then, Ben would already be on QE8 or more? DXY would also respond accordingly.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 23:37 | 1916709 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

That caught my eye too.  Did he really mean DOW to 600-1000?? Or was that S&P?

!! Maybe on the day the Dow goes from 11,000 to 1,100, we can have 10X hyperinflation and the Dow can close UNCH!

 

 

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 00:07 | 1916763 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

And a cessna under the Christmas tree for someone I know ;)

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:10 | 1916033 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Tell your chartist friend to talk to the boys at Elliottwave -- they've been calling a monster dollar rally and a tanking Dow for awhile...what is it with you 'for free' Internet newsletter writers -- always regurgitating established positions and claiming them as 'new' analysis

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:13 | 1916038 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Yes and like the broken watch that he is, Prechter is right twice a day.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:35 | 1916331 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

More like twice a decade for Robbie.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:23 | 1916214 luna_man
luna_man's picture

"Sophist Economicus"...

 

Ahh, Elliottwave is looking for you...They're wondering how you got loose!!

 

hope it's not contagious!

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 23:27 | 1916685 Random_Robert
Random_Robert's picture

There is already a rally in the dollar... been going on since 2000

Total global reserves price in US dollars are up 300%:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/world/total-reserves-minus-gold-us-dollar-wb-data.html

 

This dollar dally however has been stealthily camouflaged by our friends at the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve, proving that there is no global fiat currency inventory level that will ever be satisfactorily high enough.

 

 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:14 | 1916034 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

problems are intrinsic to the euro, the Eurozone's immense debts and the structure of the EU itself.

Charles Hugh Smith, there is fuck all wrong with the structure of the Euro or EU... the problems begin and end with the debt. Period.

The unelected waffling Marxists of Europe could continue waffling for decades to come if it weren't for the debt imploding. The Euro (and ECB) would continue for decades more were it not for the imploding debt attached to the currency (the Euro has outperformed both Sterling and US Dollars).

The reason the Euro is blowing up first is because the perifery of Europes debt is weaker than either Britains and Americas. That's the ONLY reason.

Watch as British and US debt implodes ...Woah there goes the currency. Coincidence? ...i think not

Don't attach your academic nonsense to a debt problem. It matters not Europe has 26 central banks and the UK and US only have 1. All that matters with currency is it has society-wide confidence. How many central bankers matters not a jot. Nor does the "structure" of the waffling winbags in Brussels.

It's the debt stupid 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:17 | 1916045 redcorona
redcorona's picture

The ENEMY is Das Leihkapital. They’re working day and night, pickin’ your pockets. Every day and all day and all night pickin’ your pockets AND pickin’ the Russian workin’ man’s pockets. They call it international loan kapital. It is not international, it is not hypernational. It is subnational. A quicksand UNDER the nations, destroying all nations, destroying all law and government, destroying the nations, one at a time, Russian empire and Austria, 20 years past, France yesterday, England today.

Ezra Pound, broadcasting to Europe, March 8, 1942.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 22:02 | 1916500 Winterland
Winterland's picture

Word.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:12 | 1916037 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

It's hard for me to conclude that the market's about to tank with all of the money printing that is going on and that will be going on. The market will tank in real terms for sure, but I'm not about to bet on a market going down that's measured against a currency that's in as terrible of shape as the USD.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:14 | 1916039 Mark Wilson
Mark Wilson's picture

Going by the chart, I'll be pushing up daisies long before it gets back to the neckline.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:41 | 1916339 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Not if it parties like 1929.

 

That took all of about 3 years.

 

You pushing up daisies in 36 months?

 

 

my condolences

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 22:29 | 1916568 Mark Wilson
Mark Wilson's picture

Going back to 1000 in three years on the DJIA is not what I'm getting from the chart provided. Perhaps you could elaborate.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 00:47 | 1916849 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Don't take that shit mark w.
Smash his face.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 01:53 | 1916939 Mark Wilson
Mark Wilson's picture

Hahaah! :D

 

I ain't good enough to be in Fight Club just yet. I'm working on it. ;)

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:16 | 1916044 redpill
redpill's picture

Technical analysis exists to make "stock pickers" feel better about their gambling problem.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:21 | 1916061 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner!

They also tend to be a forward looking bunch don't you think?

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:29 | 1916081 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

The best technical analysts are actually psychologists. Market trends are mainly driven by public sentiment and not vise versa. 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:53 | 1916142 TheAkashicRecord
TheAkashicRecord's picture

//Market trends are mainly driven by public sentiment//

Haha, you're funny.  In the US, on any given day 70% of equity trading is done HFT style.  How does that impact your "it all comes down to human psychology" analysis?  If it doesn't, it's full of shit.  You would be better off analyzing the algorithms rather than the brains that create them.  

 

 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:17 | 1916203 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

So are you saying that dumb money doesn't factor into the markets liquidity pool? 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:23 | 1916213 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

I think the point being made is that there are no people in control of whether the HFT algos are set to buy or sell. Nah, that would just be silly.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:50 | 1916263 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

I think you're both right. The algos control the market on most days.

But keep in mind the algos work in a functioning "ordinary" market. They get turned off when things go outside their parameters. Once the algos are turned off its people that have to make decisions.

 

 

 

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 00:21 | 1916790 Freddie
Freddie's picture

The market sentiment of robots. "Robot - are you sad or happy today?"

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:03 | 1916177 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

In the aftermath of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, NOVA presents "Mind Over Money"—an entertaining and penetrating exploration of why mainstream economists failed to predict the crash of 2008 and why we so often make irrational financial decisions. The program reveals how our emotions interfere with our decision-making and explores controversial new arguments about the world of finance. In the face of the recent crash, can a new science that aims to incorporate human psychology into finance—behavioral economics—help us make better financial decisions?

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/body/mind-over-money.html

A very interesting hour long documentary. Free to watch for all.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:20 | 1916199 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

T.A. is chart porn - you can imagine what you want sans the cardiovascular benefits.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 08:45 | 1917168 CPL
CPL's picture

Agreed, from now on I'll consider my fuel guage in the car as TA and ignore the Empty warnings from now on.

 

I suggest everyone do the same. lol

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:46 | 1916257 YC2
YC2's picture

drawing lines is easier than having any kind of expertise in an area.  

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:18 | 1916048 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

if things come apart, unglued, BK'd, paused, escsalated, de-escalated, and fuked, correlations may give way to cause

since this will seem "new", we need to recall, historically, what things might have been like, about 100 years ago, the last time we weren't carrying the banksters and their infinite paper montrosities of unmitigated bullshit

b/c i think there is gonna be a huge effort to shake off the hypnotic trance of their bankstering as more and more people balk at their talk, maybe the banksters can take a walk

and, i don't mean a cake-walk, BiCheZ!

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:50 | 1916135 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Cut off their tails with a carving knife...

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:18 | 1916049 Market Efficien...
Market Efficiency Romantic's picture

Simple beauty, the charts. Europe could well be the trigger to the larger picture unwinding. The confidence crash will lead to tougher inquiries into valuation models and more disappointments, adding more outlflows to the already running deleveraging cycle. Add the typical overshooting and you wave 666 bye bye from below.

The only question I am asking myself, when and how will the confidence come back, or will it ever. Typically, the overshooting to the downside creates new greed and blindness, refuelling the old models. And as anything else, that comeback won't be different this time, only at what bottom.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:19 | 1916052 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

With massive credit destruction through defaults and the impending dismantling of the Euro, how can you lose holding onto USD's?

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 15:54 | 1918370 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

I think you're right, but only for awhile.  It will be deflation first, then higher inflation.  Cash will be king during the first phase, gold in the second.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:19 | 1916056 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

I have great respect for CHS and I take what he says seriously. Hasn't it gotten to the point of absurd though now how 'everyone' believes the shitty buck is gunna rally? I mean he say's that "everyone" is bearish the USD but I hardly think so.

Next weeks CFTR (sic, I'm freaking tired) will be interesting. I'm very tight short the Euro but this would be a hard to resist time for them to spike the crap out of the Euro and slam the USD back down to 74 or so. Billions to be stolen. The Eurocopolypse has been WAY over advertised. Not saying it won't happen, just saying I don't trust all this over the top signaling.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:33 | 1916087 Market Efficien...
Market Efficiency Romantic's picture

Europe's going down, but do you believe, the FED will let the dollar appreciate to the extent, capital outflows from Europe will hit the US. That would choke any hope of regaining economic strength in the US, so they will - very much loved for by the administration - keep the dollar at moderate levels. The US just cannot afford a dollar appreciation.

I am not a forex guy, but why not play short EUR/NOK (alternatively EUR/GBP) and short USD/AUD (alternatively USD/JPY)? Doesn't that make sense?

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:52 | 1916140 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Since it's introduction the Euro has damaged the dollar.

Combine with that the Yen and Yuan currency manipulations, and the FED's own printing press, and the ugly dollar story is clear.

However, throw in a collapse of the Euro, and global recession, and a flight to the biggest central bank and currency (FED and $) is likely.

This doesn't mean the dollar won't be a dog again but...

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:14 | 1916191 dumpster
dumpster's picture

big dollar rally

their is a big difference from price to value

the buck could go to 120..based on other trash.. but its value will be also trash

it has to be valued against something fixed ..

the dollar based against  gold will be going down . against denningers rants they will be toast . you cant eat gold or have sex with it .

'as the nations of the earth buy gold and denninger has hightened sensations with a bond in his hand ..

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:13 | 1916192 dumpster
dumpster's picture

k

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:23 | 1916066 Market Efficien...
Market Efficiency Romantic's picture

By the way, the British position towards the EUR and the financial power associated with it, will not push towards any positive outcome for EUR. To them, a critical point has been reached and it is now opportune to regain strength aganist continental Europe by attacking the EUR project. If there was any chance, the EUR would succeed, the UK would hold back, not to burn its connentions to the continent, with the death verdict in hand, they now feel comfortable enough to step ahead.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:24 | 1916068 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Technicals...Schmecknicals. 

If there's central bank money printing orgies, we'll have a rally. But if there isn't, then the broad market has no where to go. There has to be steep inflationary pressure for investors to overcome the fear of capital risk in stocks, and the opportunity cost of missing sure-thing bond rallies. And without money printing, many know on a gut level that even the big multinational companies and the global economy itself are traveling through rough seas full of debt-monsters and deflation-whirlpools that can sink even the big ships. 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:34 | 1916091 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

Before printing, there has to be credit demand. Besides the government blowing billions on perpetual wars or corporations buying back stock, there is very little demand for fresh (hot) money. 

As easy as money can be credited into existence as a debt obligation, it can also be destoyed as debt default. 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:42 | 1916115 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

How much would they have to print this time? (Factoring oil in the equation as a drag on gdp)

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:10 | 1916189 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

It all depends on how much the US government wants to save face. Currently, government spending accounts for 20% of GDP.

With the main components shrinking (goods and services = approx. 70%), the gov. must spend up to maintain the perception of a "growing" economy. A 10% drop in GDP is a major component that defines a Depression, with the others being a U6 UE rate of 25% and 3 consequative quarters of negative growth. To avoid a "technical" Depression, although it's obvious we are already in one, the gov. must spend feverishly. 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:01 | 1916159 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Electronic money is supporting the shitty balance sheets, nothing more.

And against corporate "cash on the sidelines", look to the off-setting debt on the sidelines.

No corporation, say Caterpillar, wants to be in a position where they cannot make their payroll, save for the Fed, like in Sept 2008.  Look to LP- $350 million in cash and $800 million in debt.  What do you think their hard assets are worth ?

And banks and near-banks, it's all paper, perception and ponzi.

These criminals don't even trust themselves.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 21:47 | 1916449 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

there is very little demand for fresh (hot) money. 

Hehe. There's always interests cohmping at the bit, pleading to the Fed and Treasury that they're on the verge. That's part of the 40-year debt binge cycle we've been on: they threaten that if they don't get fresh cash immediately, they'll take the entire debt-ridden system down with them, and the US gov would have to fund it's debt at high cost. 

 

"Throughout the last century the attachment of businessmen to free enterprise has weakened dramatically as they discovered they could demand--and receive--short-range advantages from the state. . . . I watched with incredulity as businessmen ran to the government in every crisis, whining for handouts or protection from the very competition that has made this system so productive."

-William E Simon, 63rd Secretary of the US Treasury, 1973-77. 


 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 22:38 | 1916586 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

Yes but it's insignificant in comparison. The real problem is fractional reserve lending and the money multiplier. You and I contribute more to inflation than the government or the FED does which was my original point. 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:25 | 1916071 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Good article, good charts and solid technical analysis. Of course most peole can't possibly fathom a USD rally. "The US Dollar can't rally because they're printing money". Doesn't fit into their way of thinking and they have no clue about trading.

Anything can rally or crash in any direction. Just look at the charts and connect the dots. I think the Dollar can definitely hit the 90 area before continueing its longer term downtrend. That type of rally would catch a good amount of the buy & hold Dollar bears by surprise.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 00:05 | 1916762 augmister
augmister's picture

Yup.  Big dollar rally and a "gold-end" buying opportunity!   Bring it on!   The dollar rallies due to the flight from the Euro, but it too, is doomed.   Waiting patiently and keepin' the powder dry...

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:28 | 1916077 BW
BW's picture

This is a manufactured crisis.  If they can lend to banks at .25% interest only, why can't they lend to nations at that price and homeowners while you are at it.  You would have zero defaults.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:48 | 1916133 barnabeg
barnabeg's picture

And then what? How does that solve anything? Bad debt with more debt. You're a moron. 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:55 | 1916148 BW
BW's picture

Just saying more room to inflate if they want.  The question is, is the market going to go up or down from here.  Not solve your mental issues.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:53 | 1916358 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

He is right.

 

You are a moron.

 

Inflate what?

 

More printed worthless fiat?

 

And that will buy you . . . . . what?

 

 

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 08:54 | 1917090 BW
BW's picture

Not much. but the market will not crash. 

Two complete idiots.

 

Latest news, crash canceled

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/27/us-eurozone-integration-ecb-idUSTRE7AQ00F20111127

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:37 | 1916096 time123
time123's picture

Good analysis. I suppose it is possible for the DJIA to drop as low as 600. But what is more likely in my opinion is that as soon as the "solution" comes out for the Euro crisis, and given all the bearish sentiment and the fact many investors have pulled out of the market, the DJIA may rally as high as 15,500 in short order. That will be a nice upside suriprise for everyone. Time will tell.

admin

http://invetrics.com

Mon, 11/28/2011 - 10:42 | 1920772 time123
time123's picture

Looks like we are moving higher today! The Invetrics long term Buy signal of 11/11/11 will likely get confirmed!

admin

http://invetrics.com

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:39 | 1916098 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Excellent.

A non-hopium analysis of the housing and debt fueled markets compared to 1929-932 crash reveals that we have not had our Summer of '32 moment yet.

This past week was the worst historically since November of 1932.

Now think of all the "unprecedented since the great depression" moments and statistics of the past three years.

Then factor in the TRILLIONS of equity propping from FED and Treasury liquidity in the past three years.

WE HAVE NOT YET HAD OUR TRUE CRASH.

Great charts.

I agree with your analysis.

 

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 21:18 | 1916362 itstippy
itstippy's picture

Don't overlook massive temporary tax cuts and incentives, extended unemployment insurance, $800B of American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, Cash For Clunkers, Fast Trains To Nowhere., Etc. Etc.

Those actions were not economic stimulous intended to jump-start a sluggish economy out of a soft patch.  They were massive unconventional emergency infusions to keep things from collapsing completely.  They fixed nothing. Pull the "stimulous" initiatives now and all Hell breaks out.

Ask Benny how his goddam Fed exit plan for 'AAA' MBS is progressing. Yo Timmay - have you successfully avoided the irrational and panicked Fire Sale prices on 2005-2008 GSE securities yet, so you can sell them back to the private sector at reasonable valuations?  No? How much longer you figure it'll take?  We're getting kinda nervous out here you guys . . .

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 00:35 | 1916820 Freddie
Freddie's picture

A lot of it (TARP et al) was the muslim propping up IL, CA, NY and Democrat cities so union goon govt workers and those saintly union teachers, union firemen and union pepper spraying cops would not have to get laid off or (gasp!) take a pay cut.

Greece is the same thing with union govt workers which is also the same thing for Detroit.  Chicago, San Jose, Cmaden NJ and a bunch of others are in the same boat.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 00:38 | 1916832 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Are u a religious man Fred?

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:38 | 1916099 Mark Wilson
Mark Wilson's picture

What's that rule about technological advances? Our grandchildren may decide we're all full of shit and completely change everything.  I've read we'll soon be able to read our email on the inside of our contact lenses. I don't think we've seen anything yet, guys. Just wait 'til your great grandchildren get fired up.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 20:56 | 1916367 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Your great grandchildren will be fighting for scraps of bones with someone else's great grandchildren.

 

Yours will lose.

 

Your gene pool will be gone forever.

 

Sorry about that.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 21:13 | 1916398 Mark Wilson
Mark Wilson's picture

No need to apologise.

 

I won't care.

 

I'll be dead. And so will you.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 22:57 | 1916618 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Yeah, but be warned: when they announce that "web-browser in your brain" technology, I recommend you hold off a few months. 

It'll be infected with scumware and trojans within a week, and you'll have to blow your brains out to escape the constant flashing CIALIS/VIAGRA ads.

Western tradition: new technology is devised FIRST as a weapon...

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 23:44 | 1916716 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

"It'll be infected with scumware and trojans within a week, and you'll have to blow your brains out to escape the constant flashing CIALIS/VIAGRA ads."

LOL

Either that or you'll blink twice (double click) and accidentally transfer your 401k account to the Nigerian Prince trying to get his inheritance.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 02:34 | 1916979 Jena
Jena's picture

Either way, best to wait for a couple of cycles to see if the technology is sound and how the early users fair.  When the survival/solvency rates pick up, then maybe.  But doubtful.  Does anyone really need to be ever more dialed in?

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:40 | 1916104 jack_sometrades
jack_sometrades's picture

the chart for SPX looks erroneous - I just ran SPX with same RSI, Full Stoch, and MACD have have very different results??? RSI is 36.39, stoch 2.2, and MACD -10.9. a substantially different picture.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 18:42 | 1916110 BW
BW's picture

Market is oversold.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:33 | 1916236 BW
BW's picture

Looks inflationary.

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 08:51 | 1917176 CPL
CPL's picture

Looks like People waiting to purchase stuff if taking consumer sentiment into consideration.

 

$2 dollar waffle irons for all!!  The economy is fixed!!

 

lolwut?

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:38 | 1916240 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

You are over spoken.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:07 | 1916183 FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Are you looking at daily charts or weekly charts? The author looks at the weekly charts and so do I. The weekly SPX chart is not oversold at RSI=42.

Sat, 11/26/2011 - 19:09 | 1916187 BW
BW's picture

Daily

Sun, 11/27/2011 - 01:37 | 1916930 jack_sometrades
jack_sometrades's picture

good catch thanks (don't use weekly for short term trades)

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