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Guest Post: Gold Technical Outlook: Looks Set For Upside Break

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Chris Capre of 2ndSkiesForex

Gold Technical Outlook:  Looks Set for Upside Break

Looking at the weekly chart on Gold (vs. USD), the sell-off from two weeks ago at the rejection of $1900 was impressive not so much in how much it dropped in a single week, but on how well it recovered.  The following act in the next week was a solid weekly gain of 3.4% from an opening price of $1822 - 1864 closing towards the highs suggesting buyers were holding into the weekend and thus not taking profits.  The following week was a sell-off but very mild in nature and a third week of price rejecting off the weekly lows.  Three weeks of selling and three weeks of strong rejections off the lows clearly communicating to us anytime the shiny metal is sold off, buyers are eager to come back in.  And each time, they are doing so with more confidence because every time, they are buying at a higher price suggesting they are happy to take any dips as an opportunity to buy (or invest/hold) more gold. 

This clearly communicates the underlying buyers are not afraid of the short term effects CME margin hikes may have on it or their futile (and puerile for that matter) attempts to manipulate something the market clearly wants to have and to hold.  If they were afraid, they'd simply wait for a longer or deeper correction but the elevated buying rejections/levels suggests traders and holders appetite has not been satiated and continues to be part of their desired palette.

As a trader and quantitative technician, this all communicates continued upside pressure and a likely breakout (and close) above the $1900 barrier is coming soon to a market near you.  We feel whoever is attempting to depress the prices (albeit sovereigns or manipulators alike) will soon have to yield the $1900 barrier and a close above it.

It should be noted that Gold (vs. USD) has only closed down on a weekly basis 13x this year out of 37 weeks (35% of the time).  Of those 13x it closed down, only 5x (38%) did it close the following week down.  We suspect this week will follow the majority pattern of another up-close on a weekly basis with renewed interest (not like people needed a reason) as a result of the Greek Tragedy (which looks set to bring down the Euro), a Moody's downgrade of France (vis-à-vis Credit Agricole being exposed to €21B+ in Greek Debt) thus adding to the 3,00 reasons people would flock to gold faster than geese flying south after seeing a cold front.

*On a historical note, it does seem ironic that the culture which spawned European and Western civilization seems set to bring it down (at least economically).


We would also like to note the monthly close up/down ratio on a monthly basis has been increasing over the last 7 years from a 50% ratio (2004) to a 75% ratio (2010 and so far for 2011) with the only time the ratio was weakening (2007-2008) where gold only gained 11.4% on the year.  After this, the ratio began tightening and is now at its strongest levels in the last 10 years with no sign of this trend abating anytime soon.  

We suspect either this week or at best by the end of Sept., we will see a weekly close above the $1900 barrier and this technical break of the highs will only encourage traders and holders another upside run is about to begin.  Dips to $1700 should be considered (dare we say) 'golden' opportunities to buy setting short term targets at $1875.

 

*Authors Note:  The last time we wrote an article here on Zero Hedge, there were many comments on how we wrote an article devoid of macro, fundamental or economic reasons to be involved in Gold.  Shame on us. 

We would like to note this article is simply about providing a technical outlook on what we see happening with the underlying order flow and where trading opportunities are, along with where we see prices going short term.  The strategies one has to employ for trading, investing or holding physical gold are completely different and have unique time horizons.  For the record, we own physical gold, but also trade gold on a short term basis either daily or weekly. 

This article merely attempts to provide a technical perspective on what we see happening in Gold vs. USD over the next few days or weeks and that is all.  There are plenty of articles here commenting about the various reasons to own physical gold and hold for the upside gains which we see clearly over the horizon.  However, for the trading community, a technical perspective is often useful and is the heart of what this article aims for.

 

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Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:10 | 1657962 Ahmeexnal
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The tree of fiat money must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of sheeple and bankers.

 

Ahmeexnal

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:17 | 1657982 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

If ECB or FED pulls a major paper stimulus, TARP, QE or whatever to fight the debt crisis then:

 

  1. Expect a counter-intuitive selloff in gold & silver b/c central banks always manipulate it that way.
  2. BTFD b/c gold & silver always fight off the paper suppression at the end.

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:23 | 1658004 maxmad
maxmad's picture

hmmmmmm..... gold and silver went straight up after last year's QE2 announcement.. with no counter selloff whatsoever@!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:30 | 1658312 Smiddywesson
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I'm not sure why people junked you, but this is the breakdown of the longest and most global fiat run ever, so iti's also the most high pressure trade in the history of mankind, so anything is worthy of discussion.

TPTB can defy reality for a while.  You either accept this or you do not.  So don't junk my man dlamniac for stating the obvious, ok?  You are not looking at physical gold prices each day, you are looking at paper gold prices, and those prices are perched on broken ice.  Anything can happen to gold prices because "gold prices" are not priced in gold, they are priced in people who are confident that paper is gold.  Do you see the potential avalnche that is building in "gold prices" when it is recognized that gold prices have nothing at all to do with gold?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:40 | 1658458 DoChenRollingBearing
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+ $1850 and green

In the short-term anything can happen.  Manipulators can get away with it for a while (tfmetalsreport.com, a great resource for trading PMs).

I do not trade PMs or anything else (tried that, lost money, learned my lesson that Bearings do not make good traders).

When "paper gold" price vs. physical gold price diverge, it will be an awesome sight.

fofoa.blogspot.com

As long-missed ZH-er Gordon_Gekko said:

"Buy.Gold.Now."  

He also said:

"All else will be left behind when the Gold Mothership takes off."

And he meant physical!

Sat, 12/24/2011 - 05:56 | 2008975 jaffa
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Tue, 12/20/2011 - 07:35 | 1997034 jaffa
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Mon, 09/12/2011 - 07:36 | 1658877 Quinvarius
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So true.  The ponzi bankers panic and give you a deal at the exact times there should not be one.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:19 | 1658154 prains
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extend and pretend

bend and befriend.............baaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Thu, 12/08/2011 - 05:49 | 1957688 jaffa
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Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:14 | 1657975 TradingJoe
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Yeah yeah yeah we all know it already in 2 months we'll be above 2000! Thanks very much Benjamin you old beard :))) !!!!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:19 | 1657985 bob_dabolina
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This post has a shockingly defensive tone to it. 

I'm short...see ya at the $1700 dip buying level?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:30 | 1658028 nmewn
nmewn's picture

They said it would go back to 14 @ 16.

Here, they can't raise interest rates at all without doing a header off the Cliff of Recession. There, the currency is in open collapse. Asia is an illusion of properous forced labor.

Gentlemen, place your bets ;-)

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:55 | 1658040 Michael Victory
Michael Victory's picture

not going back to 14.

not going back to 16.

currency collapse in progress.

got gold?

From Oct 2010: The Discovery Channel: Inside Gold

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:40 | 1658561 DoChenRollingBearing
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Excellent videos MV!  Highly recommended to all.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:43 | 1658070 bob_dabolina
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They also said tulip bulbs, tech stocks, and home prices would never go down. 

But  "they" are always right....until they aren't.

How many other people reading this site are short gold? Or is everyone long and I'm getting junked to oblivion?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:54 | 1658108 nmewn
nmewn's picture

LOL!!!...don't worry about junks.

Its a personal choice to be long or short. Knock yourself out...whatever.

I just accumulate...I have all my life.

I'm waaay ahead...if I can remember where I put my map ;-)

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:43 | 1658459 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I am in nmewn's corner here.  I have bought lots over the decades.  Small ups and downs don't bother me at all.

Being junked is actually GOOD.  It shows that you have pushed a hot button...  Better to be junked than ignored.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:19 | 1658530 mt paul
mt paul's picture

when ever i head to the big mountains of asia

draw the old lady a map 

to where the wealth is buried...

half a dozen x's mark the spots...

recessive pirate gene...

stop at the top...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 07:18 | 1977934 jaffa
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Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:59 | 1658119 IAmNotMark
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You're seem to think that gold is in a bubble like it's a fact.  That's where you're wrong.  And nothing that I can say will change your mind.

Where will gold be next week?  No idea.

Where will gold be next year?  Higher.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:04 | 1658131 bob_dabolina
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Well we'll let price be the final arbiter. I'm short. I've stated it publicly right here http://tradeonfire.blogspot.com/

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:16 | 1658282 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Well, I bookmarked your blog. It's very interesting. I'm short Dec. US Treasry Bonds on the CME from 139-23 and having a "spot of bother"; but hanging in there for now. I don't see why the Gold Chart would require any further drop in price; but as you say, the price is the final arbiter. Cheers.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:47 | 1658320 bob_dabolina
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I'll be posting detailed analysis shortly. This blog is kind of something I did on the wing from advice from an acquaintance

I don't think shorting T's are smart at this moment in time, but I wish you the best in that endeavor. 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:54 | 1658365 tickhound
tickhound's picture

yeah yeah we know, blog on a wing.

humble beginnings pushed forward by insistent family member, or acquaintance, depending on target audience and the depth of ratings week.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:18 | 1658397 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Haha, the blog is only gona' be up for a short time. 

It is in no way going to be monetized in any fashion....EVER

...depth and ratings are meaningless.

Do I threaten you in some way?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:24 | 1658422 tickhound
tickhound's picture

ah so... insert 'noble'

Besides, any pub is good pub.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:04 | 1658496 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Bob, good luck shorting gold.

That would explain why your blog will be "transitory": when TSHTF your gold shorts will lead you to your ruin.

I see food stamps in your future.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:10 | 1658514 bob_dabolina
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It's up and running. 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:32 | 1658615 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

checked out your blog. nothing new yet. I don't eat bacon (or any pork for that matter). and I'm not into gay skiers.

you might attract more serious "readers" if you alternate those charts with some boobs.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:30 | 1658437 Spitzer
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Please keep the blog up. It will be a good contrary indicator.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:46 | 1658466 DoChenRollingBearing
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Spitzer, if you are up late tonight, FOFOA emailed me that he is putting up an article later.

It is about the Euro.  The Euro has been my biggest stumbling block on the freegold idea.

I imagine we will exchange thoughts about that in the coming days...

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:04 | 1658495 bob_dabolina
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I just shorted another 5 /gc contracts

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:44 | 1658570 DoChenRollingBearing
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Good luck!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:04 | 1658595 slavador
slavador's picture

No guts no glory- Good luck!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 06:23 | 1658817 fredquimby
Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:47 | 1658343 slavador
slavador's picture

Bob:

It is extremely generous of you to share your adventures. Hopefully your blog doesn't become a permanent record of a rags to riches to rags story! Good luck but not too much since I'm long gold...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:49 | 1658350 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

...sorry about that

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 08:15 | 1659027 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i think people need to be careful here, b/c the USDx is breaking north, or has

from, say 73 to 77 is ~5%, so that takes ~^ $90+^  gold upskie just to stay even, doesn't it?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 22:57 | 1928391 jaffa
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Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:04 | 1658132 Socratic Dog
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Short.  Leveraged paper.  For another day or two, with tight trailing stops.  But I'm long the real stuff.

 

One thing I like about the hard, shiny stuff, it makes it more difficult to trade.  So I don't, I just slowly accumulate it.  Keeps me smart....

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:31 | 1658156 bob_dabolina
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When the ECB cuts rates (and the ECB will cut rates) what is that going to do for the dollar? 

Can you imagine an enviroment where stocks & gold drop? Hold onto the bucket tight, while the dollar goes sub orbital. 

ZH even did a post on the ECB rate cuts earlier http://www.zerohedge.com/news/jean-claudes-three-straws

And you thought Bernanke was wearing that gold tie because he felt like sardonically whipping himself. Europe will end up being a net seller of gold to the US for those Benjis. 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:44 | 1658338 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

That is such bullshit.

All of this talk of Paulson redemptions crashing the gold price is bullshit. What are the people that sell out of the Advantage fund going to buy ? Probably physical gold. What else ? 10 year treasuries at NEGATIVE 9 SGS yield ?

What are people going to buy that jump out of GLD ? Swiss Francs ?

 

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:54 | 1658358 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

What are you? A fucking idiot? I know you can read, so you can't be that stupid. 

Dollars, dumb shit. 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:25 | 1658425 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Hey everyone !

bob dabolina has uncovered the answer to the issues facing investors and savers the world over. He has presented a long term investment strategy that will not only save capital but also give adiquate  returns for the forseeable future...

Buy dollars !

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:38 | 1658450 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I don't promise anything. I am just willing enough to be transparent. 

Which is more than anyone can say about you and your bullshit. 

I DARE you to follow in my footsteps. I highly doubt you have the resolve. 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:01 | 1658591 slavador
slavador's picture

When gold hits the end of its run, very few will take advantage of that situation. I plan to be among the elect and thus I am always extremely interested in the views of anyone who see's some sort of end in site. My bet has always been that it will climb untill either:

1) The gov't gets its act together such that 1st world interest rates are able to rise to 10% or so.

or

2) The public has an orgy-like irrational gold buying mania that drives prices beyond what another 10 years of drunken spending by gov'ts would justify.

I don't see either so am confidant the long term trend will be maintained. Besides the wave charts (which some compare to voodoo) do you have a reason to be calling a top here?

 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 09:28 | 1659262 Apocalicious
Apocalicious's picture

Yep, and when the people who set interest rates ARE the biggest borrowers in the world, then you have a massive incentive to keep rates unnaturally low for an extremely extended period of time. We are not Japan - correct, we're not - our politicians are much less organized and intelligent than theirs. Why is it going to work out better here than it has there? Overlay the chart of the Roman denarius priced in silver from the 3rd and 4th century with the dollar priced in gold. I'm not stepping in front of that. Good luck, Bob. You will lose...

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:16 | 1658607 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

Anderson, Nels, and Council of Social Agencies of Chicago. (1923). The Hobo: The Sociology of the Homeless Man.

methinks "Bob" may be part of the 'early adopter' paradigm.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:46 | 1658465 prole
prole's picture

hey dabolina has his postion and everyone is entitill?-- deserves to have his own opinion and position. Why junk him for that. If au crashes 200 bucks will his 17 junkers come back and apologize to bd? (btw I hope you are wrong bd but let's see what happens)

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:01 | 1658492 IronShield
IronShield's picture

I for one would be grateful as, on the next buy, that would give me an extra ounce or two.  Either way, who cares?  Over the long term (17% per annum) adds up.  Thank you...

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:06 | 1658650 prole
prole's picture

I see that iron sheep and xstop post as if it is as given, and beyond debate or question that au will go up "in the long run." The only item in doubt is what to do about short term volatility. I don't hold that postion at all. In past gold had held the same price for 133 years,  In british pounds maybe it did the same for 400 years? Gold could stay the same price for next 100 years, or go down, or something outside the box happens. I ~think~ it will go up too, but I'm not sure. It might go down. (JK about the sheep bro)

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 05:34 | 1658784 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

No, he gets junked because he's an asshole, not because he's short gold.

Still waiting on his silver to $20 something call by the end of the year.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 16:45 | 1661277 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Gold crashing to $1610?  Somehow I can't see that happening, but if it does I'll be on a shopping spree for phsycial.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:07 | 1658504 xtop23
xtop23's picture

 I have a day job man I cant be glued to my computer to make that trade and be certain of catching it at the right time .

 Id rather trust that in this particular case the long is the smart play over time and by passing on the quick buck Ill be rewarded over the long haul .

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 06:32 | 1658828 D.O.D.
D.O.D.'s picture

12 GLD put contracts that end on friday... 160 strike.. we'll see.. but if it does get down there, i'm going all in on Nov calls...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:41 | 1658068 sunnydays
sunnydays's picture

If you followed Jon Nadler, he was still sayiing earlier this year, gold would go down to around 600 to 800 dollars, which is it's rightful value.  :)

 

I wonder how many did listen to him.

Oh, yeah, Nadler and Christian (CPM) are holding a seminar for people interested in metals this week. 

 

OH, I can' just imagine what all they are going to say... "Stay away from Gold and Silver. They will be Crashing soon"! Nadler will be out with a horn yelling..."Don't buy Gold - You will lose all your money". 

CME will have a rep there too.  Jeez, sounds just like something  I would really want to attend.

 

Link to their little metals seminar of bashing gold and silver to make you afraid of buying it.

http://www.kitco.com/falltour2011/

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:59 | 1658117 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

How much does Kitco pay him to be their Senior Analyst? And WHY?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:46 | 1658342 Edmund Dantes
Edmund Dantes's picture

He is in the employment of JP Morgan who funds Kitco also.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:13 | 1658605 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

any back up on that? Inquiring minds would like to know>

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 06:22 | 1658809 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

I'm short...see ya at the $1700 dip buying level?

I'd wait for $1000.

Send me a postcard when you get there chief.

 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 06:30 | 1658821 sunnydays
sunnydays's picture

Looks like people on the Kitco forum had listened to Nadler and was waiting for it to drop.  What idiots.  I have noticed Nadler hasn't been using the 600 to 800 number anymore saying that is where Gold is headed.  I have tried to figure out why a company that sells gold and silver would hire and have their main analyst always trying to get people to be afraid of it and not buy it. 

Except I do know when I purchased from Kitco in 2008, it took 2 months for me to get my little coin. 

I haven't heard anymore about their legal problems of them playing a shell game with gold.  I wonder what is going on with that?

 

GetZeeGold - you took out the Kitco forum link to that conversation, during my posting this comment.  That link showed people were listening to Nadler and expecting a drop, even when it was at 1400. 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:21 | 1658000 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

No. When Countries default they either sell their gold or have it seized. This will cause the price of gold to decline as interest rates soar for the "need to be re-organized states." this is true at the mom and pop level as well since the government will start cutting off the benefit checks and thus to eat you'll need to part with your gold.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:24 | 1658009 maxmad
maxmad's picture

whatever gold you think will be sold, will need to go to Chavez! Gold to the moon!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:46 | 1658340 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Sell gold to buy what  ? Confetti ?

 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:28 | 1658523 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Europe might as well sell gold to buy confetti.

When Russia demands gold for gas, burning fossil fuels or paper is the same to keep the sheeple warm.

Oil producers> Got oil? 

Europe>  -silence-

Oil producers> That's ok poor schmuck.  Give us your gold...in advance!

Europe>  jawohl mein meister!!

 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:25 | 1658536 mt paul
mt paul's picture

that is the problem.. 

what to buy .....

long silver

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:49 | 1658470 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, I eagerly await to see if / how Chavez gets his gold.  Make no mistake.  "His gold".

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:39 | 1658206 sullymandias
sullymandias's picture

Why TF would a sovereign state sell their gold at the same time they defaulted on their debt?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:05 | 1658390 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

That didn't happen in Argentina's case.  The BIS is there to help hide their assets if needed.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:08 | 1658392 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:21 | 1658001 agNau
agNau's picture

Big round number.
Wonder, will thousands become like hundreds.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:23 | 1658007 Chris Capre
Chris Capre's picture

Authors Note:

We have no trading positions on Gold as of yet but own both physical gold and silver sitting nicely in a vault outside the US.

We are though awaiting a technical setup to take a short term trading position going long

FYI

Chris Capre

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:32 | 1658036 pgarner
pgarner's picture

+10

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:42 | 1658067 radish juice
radish juice's picture

No question gold is showing strength as you note. From technical perspective, its is currently making a triangular formation (which is actually very close to a bullish ascending triangle but not quite) so it could break on either side. The upside would break to 2050 down side to 1700 as you indicate. So the safest trading point is on a breakout of old high. One could buy at 1700 but need to watch the news around that time so see if further downside exists.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:51 | 1658476 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Chris Capre,

Smart holding physical.  I do not trade anymore, having demostrated total incompetence at trading.

So I just buy the real thing.  Outside the USA, good thing.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:26 | 1658014 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Asia opens and Nikkei drops 2.3%.

Shit, meet fan.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:40 | 1658062 lano1106
lano1106's picture

I think a lot people were expecting a G7 press release before asian markets open.

Does that mean that they have abandonned the can kicking and are now ready for reckoning?

Or they have still not have reached consensus for the next lame gimmick

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:36 | 1658325 snowball777
snowball777's picture

They sent it to the printer, but it's still in the queue for some reason...

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:41 | 1658562 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Hong Kong down 3.4%

 

This means DAX will fall around 6%

And that in turn means DOW will rally 2.1%

 

Which means the markets mean absolutely nothing.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:26 | 1658015 PaperBugsBurn
PaperBugsBurn's picture

@spirit of untruth

Joooden spying

Ever since Monday, when The New York Times exposed the reason behind the May 2010 incarceration of FBI linguist Shamai Leibowitz, US and international media have been buzzing with prominent headlines like: “US government spied on Israel’s Washington embassy”. Although these headlines are accurate, they —like the articles themselves— miss the actual story behind the revelations: namely the extent of Israeli covert propaganda operations inside the United States. As intelNews reported in May 2010, Leibowitz, a lawyer with dual American-Israeli citizenship, who worked as a translator for the FBI, was sentenced to right under two years in prison, for leaking classified information. The government disclosed no further information at the time of Leibowitz’s conviction, saying only that he had been jailed for “having unlawfully disclosed classified documents to an unidentified blogger”. Now the “unidentified blogger” has come forward to reveal the details of Leibowitz’s court case, and to defend the former FBI linguist “as an American patriot and a whistle-blower”. Richard Silverstein, a Jewish American scholar, who writes a blog called Tikun Olam, said that Leibowitz gave him about 200 pages containing transcripts of conversations intercepted by the FBI in its monitoring of the Israeli Embassy in Washington, DC. Most of the transcripts contain what appear to be telephone exchanges between staff at the Israeli embassy and outside contacts, though some appear to be the products of eavesdropping of face-to-face conversations conducted inside the Israeli embassy premises. This may be seen as evidence that the FBI’s Operational Technology Division, which is responsible for maintaining interception systems targeting foreign embassies on US soil, conducts extensive monitoring of the goings on at the Israeli embassy.

But knowledgeable intelligence observers will be hardly surprised by this ‘revelation’. Indeed, why wouldn’t the US intelligence community spy on the Middle East’s only nuclear power, and a country which engages in aggressive intelligence collection operations against the United States? What is perhaps more suspicious, is that media outlets are systematically downplaying the very reason why Silverstein chose to come forward with the information. According to the Seattle-based blogger, Leibowitz was “acting out of noble motives”, namely out of “concerns about Israel’s aggressive efforts to influence Congress and public opinion, and fears that Israel might strike nuclear facilities in Iran, a move he saw as potentially disastrous”. An incredulous Silverstein spoke at a forum in his hometown of Seattle on Tuesday, in which he repeated that the “real story” behind his revelations was “buried in yesterday’s New York Times piece”. Sure, US counterintelligence spies on the Israeli embassy in DC. But “what’s more important”, he said, “is what the US spying actually uncovered. What is more shocking”, he continued, “is how the transcripts shed light on the aggressive opinion-shaping activities of the Israeli government and its ultimate goal: war with Iran [...]. They target key opinion shapers and key players in society and use long-term plans to sponsor conferences, ghost-author op-ed pieces, and jawbone members of congress. All together is this image that they really want America to go to war with Iran, or OK Israel going to war with Iran”. The FBI, US Justice Department, and the Israeli embassy have all refused comment on the revelations....How is Richard Silverstein a scholar exactly? And regarding the content of the leaks we have to just go on his historically biased recollections given that he burned all 200 pages of them. Some story....LOL LOL

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:48 | 1658464 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

We were supposed to go to war with iran years ago. They'll attack them and drag us into it. Because they are close to reaching thier goal and anybody pressing towards a goal becomes more and more restless and bends rules and good tactics as they get close to the end.

People were saying months back that Irael will go full retard by around september.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6QKJs_JKok&feature=related

Turkey knows. Somehow people in egypt know. And somehow someway citizens of israel know. Taiwan's clued in. And Russia and china sure as hell know.

Tue, 09/13/2011 - 16:48 | 1665208 theotheri
theotheri's picture

BAN THIS RACIST PIG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:27 | 1658019 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

I see the "Fucking Pig-Dog Manipulators" ARE AT IT ALREADY. kNOCKED GOLD DOWN ,LIKE $10 DOLLARS IN A FEW MINUTES after trading opened this evening.

PS....

Fuck Goldman Sachs.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:29 | 1658020 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Still not seeing any big moves in gold, Euro, or ES.

Will all the news about a Greek BK, ES should be down 25+, Gold should be up $35+, Euro should be a 1.35 or worse.

http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=9829808

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:43 | 1658074 maxmad
maxmad's picture

yep gold should be $35, gas should be a nickle, candy bar for a dime... and then  Robo woke up...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:43 | 1658075 DrFever
DrFever's picture

I agree. The fact gold moved with Friday's confusion shows just how exhausted the gold trade is.  It NEEDS a break to vault higher. 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:48 | 1658091 maxmad
maxmad's picture

all it needs is a sniff or more money being printed and its off to the races...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:18 | 1658152 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Its astonishing isn't it?

People still value G/S in depreciating fiats instead of the other way around. I've given up trying to esssplain...not ma problem mang...lol.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:28 | 1658024 caerus
caerus's picture

i must admit, the gold trade has been quite peculiar lately...i want to buy, i just want to buy lower

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:30 | 1658030 interbanker
interbanker's picture

" When we have gold, we are in fear, when we have none we are in danger"

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:30 | 1658031 interbanker
interbanker's picture

" When we have gold, we are in fear, when we have none we are in danger"

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:35 | 1658045 rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

So when everyone in bullish on gold, what would buffett do?Go Short?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:39 | 1658054 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Take a bath and fantasize about Becky Quicks little Pink Gravy Boat.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:37 | 1658451 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

He will buy more BAC stock with his 6% dividend because he doesnt understand gold. He will push up prices of everything and yield lower of everything because ponzi is all that he knows.

He lives in a world where there is no gold

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:57 | 1658483 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

He will buy more BAC stock at 6% because he has a cozy deal to protect him downside.  He's so rich why would he care about gold.

Spitzer, like I mentioned up thread be looking for a FOFOA column later tonight re the Euro.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 08:22 | 1659045 ATM
ATM's picture

He competely understands gold. Gold destroys the crony-capitalists and the governments that feed them. No gold paves the way for people like Buffett to screw the little guys by getting governments to backstop his stupid bets.

Hell, I'd buy all of BofA if I was guaranteed never to lose money and everyone would pat me on the back as being some great and wonderful wizard who saved the big company and thus the entire country.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:58 | 1658486 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

And the nice thing for him is his dreams come true!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:40 | 1658064 maxmad
maxmad's picture

he would take a bath in his gold bath tub!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:58 | 1658115 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Junkies like him don't take baths.  Clean pores are exit highways for mind altering chemicals.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:51 | 1658357 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I had a flash of a sauna room with distilling equipment attached to the top.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:41 | 1658066 maxmad
maxmad's picture

dont think for a minute that he isn;t loaded up on gold!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:50 | 1658352 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Weren't you supposed to commit suicide, troll?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:41 | 1658065 DrFever
DrFever's picture

I disagree.  Short term I believe gold is headed lowe and a test of the 1650 trend line would be healthy. I do believe that longer term, gold is THE asset to own. Short term though I'm not so sure.

We had the perfect catalyst for gold on Friday with rumours of a greek defualt over the weekend.  Gold didn't rally as the save haven should have if it was truly thr safest alternative.  That should concern any gold bug.

Gold is tired and needs a break.  A double top should be watched very carefully. Gold can quickly move down to test 1700.  Caution is warranted. I would only buy again if it closes above the all time high.

Ask yourself why gold shoot to the moon with Friday's mania? 

Long term bull ... short term not so much.

Dr. Fever

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:46 | 1658085 maxmad
maxmad's picture

problem with that logic is that there is no logic to the gold market.  The manipulation of all fiat currencies has caused gold to completely go against any logic... Just like the stock market and the QE's... Dont try and outsmart the market, it is going against all the money printing... it may never substantially correct....

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:55 | 1658109 caerus
caerus's picture

i'm still waiting for 1650...seems like an eternity

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:00 | 1658120 maxmad
maxmad's picture

like neverland, it doesn't exist anymore...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:06 | 1658136 caerus
caerus's picture

bullish as i am, i must differ with you there... 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:44 | 1658226 sullymandias
sullymandias's picture

everybody's got their little price targets. only price i am trying to figure out is when its high enough i can fuckin retire. fuck all you zh tards BITCHEZ

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:46 | 1658341 caerus
caerus's picture

say it isn't so lorax

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:55 | 1658249 Campagnolo
Campagnolo's picture

$1650 you won't it again

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:21 | 1658293 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

I disagree strongly; China. China, China. The three reasons Gold will not revisit $1700 at all this year.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:31 | 1658314 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

A test of $1650 might be "healthy"; but we'll never know because it's not going to happen. Take two aspirins and don't call me in the morning.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:50 | 1658572 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Yes ... channel break out and correction back to breakout point would relieve any overbought sentiment and then 'To the Moon Alice'...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:48 | 1658348 Edmund Dantes
Edmund Dantes's picture

Get your head out of the painted charts you idiot!!!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:30 | 1658619 nestle
nestle's picture

Let's just say Gold does go down, and heads downward to 1700 or maybe to your 1650, doesn't that mean a solid doulbe top in place??  What's making it stopping at 1650??

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 16:46 | 1661281 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Demand...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:46 | 1658081 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

In the last few days, gold as shown on this link: http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/Goldchart.htm Has sold off hugely three times I remember, once right at midnight -- for about 2 minutes, then the next two times at precisely 6 am (EST).  Someone is doing something.  If they were selling to raise cash, wouldn't they spread it out instead of one huge order to drive down the price?

Futher, it's almost always higher when asia is trading than it is here when we are.  If you could trade in both markets, you could literally coin money.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:03 | 1658494 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ $1850 and green

Yes, the manipulation gets more brazen by the week.  So what sez the State Run Media, if they notice at all.

The time for a physical gold vs. paper gold reckoning draws near.  $1650 or $1900 makes little difference if we give this a little time.

PS, I like the sgxniftyxxxxxxx service too.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 16:47 | 1661285 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

More brazen but less effective everytime.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:45 | 1658082 rokka
rokka's picture

Hehe, buy gold, loosers. You're late to the party, but still can get yours wonderfull p/l ration of what? 1/5 or even more?

I can't beleive there are people who beleive in all this it-is-the-end-of-the-world-only-gold-save-your-ass bs. No, seriosly, buy gold at 1900 to get what? 2000 with the risk of going to 1500 at least?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:45 | 1658083 rokka
rokka's picture

Hehe, buy gold, loosers. You're late to the party, but still can get yours wonderfull p/l ration of what? 1/5 or even more?

I can't beleive there are people who beleive in all this it-is-the-end-of-the-world-only-gold-save-your-ass bs. No, seriosly, buy gold at 1900 to get what? 2000 with the risk of going to 1500 at least?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:46 | 1658087 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

If I was looser, I'd need to tighten up.  So I don't think I need to listen to comments from a real loser who can't speak english.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:28 | 1658305 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

I liked the "beleive", too; and the fourteen hyphens. Ignorance must be a real life challenge.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:08 | 1658506 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

You can't cure stupid.  I wish I remember who said that...

Green

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 09:00 | 1659139 WmMcK
Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:29 | 1658666 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Actually, the hyphens are grammatically correct. He created a long adjective phrase that modifies "BS".

But don't let that distract you from him being retarded.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:07 | 1658503 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ $1850 and green again.

This "looser" will miss out.  What will he say if we get FOFOA's numbers ($55,000 / oz)?  Gold goes to $1650, big deal, for those of us who have been buying for decades, we SCOFF at "loosers" like him.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:39 | 1658627 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

i'm tired of people saying gold is useless.

i polish my ounces more than my car (yearly)  and it gives me great pleasure.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:25 | 1658174 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Maybe not the end of the world but probably very hard times for dedicated CNBC viewers. 

 

We seem to be passing through an event that has occurred many times in history when the banks destroy the currency. We're at the point in the story when the smart money has already figured it out and made their exits, leaving the others behind. This mess looks to be global.

But the banks even kindly told us in advance what they were going to do. Now they're finally warning of 'dangerous times ahead,' and that nasty things are likely to happen, just like ZH has been saying for years. I suppose the belated warnings by the bankers are their version of public service announcements. Now, when people start jumping from windows in despair the banks can say they were helping and warned us. 

 

Maria Bartiromo, 2014: "Do you know where your GOLD is?"


 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:20 | 1658291 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

This "looser" bought another 4 ounces today. Poor pitiful me! :-Þ

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:10 | 1658511 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Pobrecito...  When gold gets to $55k, you won't feel THAT way anymore!  When 55k comes, maybe a nice cold one will make you even looser!

Pobrecito, pobrecito.

Green!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:56 | 1658110 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Got another tranche of PM Friday on news of impending doom. Missed the lows of the last dip but me no care.

Alisdair McCleod (of the clan McCleod), and others, are still remarking in the blogosphere on the brazen and coordinated moves of the SNB and gold prices of the past week.  Seems the moves gave insight. The timing in gold sell offs before and after the SNB announcment were for maximum effect. The level of coordination by the cartel to try stop the rise in gold was very remarkable and also indicates how they are getting hurt.  

Cartel seems resigned to the rise in gold, and can still make money on the way up by forcing the dips. It's the big moves that are killing them and they want to avoid.

The recent manipulation reminds me of the scene from Starship Troopers when Doogie Houser puts his empathic hands on a captured alien Big Bug: "He's a Smart Bug..... and he's afraid!" 

 

 

 

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:04 | 1658133 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Looks like high gold prices were "transitory"

Down to $1,844.

We need a limit down in ES tomorrow to send it over $1,900

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:26 | 1658176 DrFever
DrFever's picture

False logic. We had the market meltdown on Friday .... what did gold do?

Caution is warrented going long gold here. 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:25 | 1658297 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

$1844 is not a high price? who knew? You're really a glutton for punishment, aren't you.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:35 | 1658321 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Gold has systolic and diastolic moves, just like anything else.  As of the time of my comment gold is "down" $7.   That's not even half a heart-beat.   Those looking for the tragic heart attack should perhaps get something better to do.   Gold is healthy as a horse as long as morons run the government, financial institutions, and banks.   Get over it.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:12 | 1658515 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I wish I could give you more than one green Rocky.  Well said.  It's the long-term that counts.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 16:49 | 1661292 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

At $1810, I had to go out and BTFD.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 06:27 | 1658822 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I love you robo!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:20 | 1658157 chump666
chump666's picture

The numbskulls at the SNB just took away the CHF as a safe haven, so, you sell EUR and buy Gld...on the EZ doomsday trade.

Any butnuts buying into equity breakouts are going to have their money taken from them.  All index trading ranges are going to shift into a downside trading range...Aug relief meltup after the sell off was overbought.  Now the pain trade awaits.

 

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:22 | 1658161 chump666
chump666's picture

...as in 'hell' awaits for all you Slayer fans.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 05:36 | 1658779 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

nothing at all wrong with mainlining some Slayer, directly into the main artery is preferred

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myP9VX_WMHY

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:45 | 1658227 gnomon
gnomon's picture

This locker room banter is amusing, but the Big Game starts tomorrow.  The Ponzi Masters will have to put up or shut up and let the stock markets drain away along with their very faint hopes of staving off a sharp Lehman-like contraction for just a little while longer.

I love seeing them SWEAT.  I want the wings of a butterfly to rip their plans to shreds from Wall Street to Bejing.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:03 | 1658262 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

it has room to run to the upside?  well i never.  but, but ,  but.... i thought denniger said............oh well............

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:27 | 1658300 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

I've been wandering, what in the hell does Karl own?  Equities? Nah, I doubt it. Treasury's? LOL!Definitely NOT! Swiss Francs? Fucking hope not!

Karl, where's your safety net?????

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:35 | 1658324 The Luftwaffe
The Luftwaffe's picture

All of the "sell offs" in gold over the past month have not in fact been sell offs, but rather cartel manipulation.  If you are going to be in this market, and you should, you must understand that it is heavily manipulated. However, the manipulaters are fighting a losing battle, and soon we will witness the cartel get crushed- in both gold and silver. JPM and their pathetic allies are going down- down down down........

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:39 | 1658329 prophet
prophet's picture

Technical.

Anecdotal.

You decide whether this article was technical or not.  I found it to be anecdotal. 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:32 | 1658443 monopoly
monopoly's picture

It continues to amaze me how many of us are out of touch.

1. No one said Greece was going to default at 9PM NY time. So we may not drop 1,000 points tonight.But do you doubt it is coming.

2. I do not remember at any time when any asset goes straight up in price without corrections or rest. ie. Gold.

3. If you sell your gold what are you going to do with dollars that become more worthless with each passing month of Obama's presidency.

4. Sure buying LULU AMZN and CMG and other momo stocks produced profits. If you held. But they all had wipe outs that would have me stopped out on all. So why bother. And when the elevator goes down for real, believe me, it is an express run to the basement.

5. It is clear that the times we are in call for protection of capital and wealth. I am not a PHD in econometrics but I get it. Why do we care if gold is 1,900 or 1,675 or 1,400 or whatever. We are not selling and we know where we are headed. Remember the 3 stooges who run this country that I have posted time and time again. Think about that then ask yourself if you want to part with your gold/silver. I found this article very informative and supporting my thesis. That is all these good folks are doing. They are making us think and possibly help us with a short term game plan. The long term plan is in and it is moving ahead well. Yes there will be blow ups. It will continue to  work well so stay the course.

Caveat: Absolutely and unequivocally....NO Margin!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:16 | 1658527 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ $1850, well OK, $1845.  Green as well.

Hear hear!

Until we no longer have guys like this running our country and our financial system, it is all about the ounces!  So many do not think lon-term enough.

Agree: no margin.  Just buy the physical, hide it well and lead & lead delivery devices toprotect it.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!