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Guest Post: Has Gold Unwound its Overbought Status?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Chris Capre of Second Skies LLC

Has Gold Unwound its Overbought Status?

One of the biggest questions being written about which is on traders and analysts minds is whether Gold has moved into bubble territory and is about to start a major reversal, or is going to keep on truckin’ Blind Boy Fuller style.  While my fundamental hat suggests it’s likely to continue its trend (as a hedge against bad govt’s), being a quantitative price action and ichimoku trader, I have to see what the technical picture is communicating.

For looking at whether a market is in an extreme phase and is set to reverse, we often look towards our weekly 20EMA spread.  This model plots the distance from the weekly closing price to the 20EMA as a gauge of market extremes or whether the trend is likely to continue.  If a market is at an extreme level, it usually has a very large spread from the 20EMA.  Any abnormal spread from the 20EMA is likely to return to the 20EMA.

Looking at the chart below, you are seeing the weekly chart on Gold over the last 6 years.  In this chart, you can see price’s movement and its relationship to the 20EMA, along with the lower indicator/model representing the spread between the week’s closing price and the 20EMA. 

We have highlighted the key peaks which generally occurred around a 1258 reading, or price having $125.8 price spread from the weekly closing price to the 20EMA.  This generally led to a pullback minimally to the 20EMA within an average of 4 weeks and a maximum of 10.  We would like to note that historically, since April of 2005, Gold has spent only 43 weeks below the 20EMA (closing basis) out of 541 for a total of 8% of the time, statistically displaying its tendency to trend upward.  It also means should Gold break below the 20EMA, the chances of price staying below it for extended periods of time are unlikely.

What we do have to note is the most recent parabolic run away from the 20EMA created an abnormal spike never before seen in history with a reading of 2718 or price closing $271.8 away from the 20EMA.  So the next logical question becomes what do we make of this and is it the end of this massive uptrend?

Our view is this is unlikely, considering the historical relationship to the 20EMA as noted before (8% of time below).   In fact, we may consider a pullback to the 20EMA to be a healthy thing as it will put Gold through a re-distribution phase and allow the order flows behind it to start another run higher. 

But, the extreme nature of this suggests price is likely to pullback to the 20ema within the next 2mos or by year end.  Across most instruments, price rarely has this kind of extreme or unstable relationship to the 20EMA and usually means the orders behind such movements have to normalize a bit before starting another run.  Keep in mind, this does not have to happen with a violent sell-off and could be the result of price hanging around the $1700-$1900 range while the 20EMA catches up to current price levels.

In fact, to add any new positions, we’d rather wait to let the spread normalize and move back into the prior range which suggested a very healthy trend. 

We also do have to add to the bullish prospects how price had one of its biggest weekly drops from an open of $1860.92, to an all-time high of $1911.89, then shedding $209 to the weekly $1702 low to do what??? Bounce strongly and end the week at $1827.  This is highly suggestive of how the buyers were ready to stand up to one of the most violent and largest % based weekly sell-offs and send the metal within roughly $40 or 2% of where it opened the week.

Thus, although the short-term price structure may suggest consolidation or mild pullback to the 20EMA, our medium and long term technical view is still strongly bullish.

 

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Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:04 | 1610054 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Of course gold is way overbought. Kick all the "paper gold" at the Crimex and LBMA out and the price will plummet to, say, 500$. Then the real buying starts.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:11 | 1610072 Anonymous X
Anonymous X's picture

so your saying i should wait till that happens? Or is it a bad idea to buy at that time...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:18 | 1610089 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Buy now befor September and October. These chartists are never right about gold.

They will be giddy with some new chart and boom, some central bank will decide to buy  200 tons and the price will shoot up.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:45 | 1610175 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Spitzer,@18:18

Sounds good, where is the 200 Tons coming from?,no one outside f a CB or the IMF/BIS has 200 tons period,that they MAY (if their absolute idiots) be willing to let go of.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:53 | 1610197 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

The CB of Kazakistan is buying all of its domestic production.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:57 | 1610358 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

$500/oz.....and Blah, Blah, Blah

$750/oz.....and Blah, Blah, Blah

$1,000/oz....and Blah, Blah, Blah

$1,250/oz....and Blah, Blah, Blah

$1,500/oz....and Blah, Blah, Blah

$1,750/oz....and Blah, Blah, Blah

So we have to listen to some more.... Blah, Blah, Blah before we see $2,000/oz and much higher.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:42 | 1610454 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

A planet five times the size of earth has been discovered....made out of SOLID DIAMOND.

 

http://news.discovery.com/space/diamond-planet-110825.html

 

I claim ownership to this planet, and also to the soon to be discovered planet 10 times the size of earth, made out of SOLID GOLD!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:06 | 1610496 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Bearish for DeBeer's, bitchez.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:55 | 1610576 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

Germany is failing..

which would have helped keep CONTAGION from Europe spreading to the United States.

The U.S. has a continuing Depression..

which NONE! of the Structural Issues have been reviewed and / or fixxed.. Think Investment Banks Gambling with CD's from the retail side..

China has just implemented a TRUE! Gold for Renminbi Settlement Window..

and the Chinese know thier World is faker than fake, thusly they have been moving money off shore and buying as much Gold and silver as they can find..

QE3 is on deck..

But Gold is going to trade down?

the only reason gold is down now is becuase the FED bought Gold Down with Tax Dollars like they always do.

How is this even a topic for conversation?

AND!!

You cant eat it, BITCHEZ!!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:41 | 1610742 Party with Berl...
Party with Berlusconi's picture

Having lived in China for the past three years and having turned around a fraudulent Chinese acquisition (held hostage for a week but that's not too uncommon) I have to say you have hit on a very fundamental point "the Chinese know their World is faker than fake." Gold is the anti-Chinese ethic. So it would seem ironic, but not really, that they would know to flock to the hardest, hold in you hands, reality possible, gold and diamonds. Chinese have always been known to store wads of cash in their bras and under their beds. Now it's in gold or offshore investments and holdings. Just the well off mind you, as this is still a third world country. Forget what you see on your business trip to Shanghai. The supply chain cost is +18% of the GDP compared to <7% in Europe or North America. The food supply is disgustingly unsanitary and a risk to public health.  These are two of thousands of examples of the huge inefficiencies that exist in this have-not kingdom. I don't want to paint with a broad brush but there are hundreds of millions operating at the lower to mid tiers of Maslow's hierarchy. Don't fall for thinking that most are educated, cosmopolitan, or rational beings from "our world". Of course people are people and you will find kind and generous folks everywhere. But despite the differences in experience and thought all the Chinese know that if you can't hold it in your hand then there is a >80% probability it is fake. Retail gold is huge here. Not just jewelery but in bank and safety deposit holdings. China is hyper-duplicitous. They are building a fast train between Shenzhen and Honk Kong, replete with luxury condos on the HK side for rich PRC. Why?, for shopping and value add tax avoidance and for access to off-shore accounts and deposit boxes. Those boxes are holding gold and precious stones not chickens and pigs.

Right on JW

 

Sorry for the duplicate postings. It sucks being dyslexic.

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 00:22 | 1610883 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

Chinese are filthy in general.  And they are obnoxious and overly aggressive.  I can't think of a worse country to become the next superpower to be frank.  

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 01:06 | 1610950 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

.

Sorry Tyler, butt this is a Bullshit Post ...

 

GOLD AU don't trade on any "Moving Average" in the medium/long term, which is what counts.

 

ASIAN Physical buyers, (as opposed to dummy USA paper buyers/shorters), don't give a Shit about MA Charts, and thats what counts, Period end of story, for now...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:18 | 1610743 Party with Berl...
Party with Berlusconi's picture

1

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:24 | 1610744 Party with Berl...
Party with Berlusconi's picture

1

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:47 | 1610561 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"I claim ownership to this planet..."

I think you gotta sorta plant the Ahmeexnal flag on it first...when you get there, plant it next to mine ;-)

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 08:41 | 1611244 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

You guys can have the planet!

but the sea's are MINE!!

I am Captain.. NO! Admiral!! Pirate!!! KING!!!!

LOL!!

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 00:26 | 1610895 chindit13
chindit13's picture

That would make one heck of an engagement ring. Too bad Liz Taylor left so soon.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:50 | 1610190 malikai
malikai's picture

The CBs are buying quietly, now.

The announcements come after they've made/completed their purchases. The jumps sure do look good for their new assets.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:03 | 1610217 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Methboy says it only costs 5 bucks to dig an ounce outta the ground. So maybe we should wait til price drops so we can exchange portraits of old Abe Lincoln for an ounce of Au.

When the SHTF you'll be able to sell that same ounce for a portrait of Ogolfer.  Inside sources say Ogolfer will grace the 100 trillion bills.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:54 | 1610349 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Weird scenes inside the gold mine.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:58 | 1610484 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Sleeper. +1

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:17 | 1610511 Nostradumbass
Nostradumbass's picture

-

Far be it from me to defend MathMan but he was referring to SILVER not gold with his $5 to mine it figure.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:45 | 1610559 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

AND!!

You cant eat it!

BUT!!

It will help purify your drinking water!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:28 | 1610641 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Methboy would not know the difference between gold and silver if it fuxored him in the ass.

And when it comes to Methboy and his ilk, there is actually no difference between gold and silver. It's just PAPER to them!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:38 | 1610797 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

5 Dollars? Confused thank you. Current spot 41.32 and I'm more inclined to watch the SPX. Current Futures 1185 / Flat.

 

You know about the crossover Right?

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 01:05 | 1610953 Freddie
Freddie's picture

+1

Hilarious seeing O Hussein the muslim voters junking you.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:39 | 1610447 macholatte
macholatte's picture

These chartists are never right about gold.

I have asked a few chart guys (Tech Analysts) the same question and never really get any kind of meaningful answer. The question is this: How do you factor government interference?

 

Any man who can drive safely while kissing a pretty girl is simply not giving the kiss the attention it deserves.
Albert Einstein

There is a theory which states that if ever anyone discovers exactly what the Universe is for and why it is here, it will instantly disappear and be replaced by something even more bizarre and inexplicable.There is another theory which states that this has already happened.
Douglas Adams

I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you different.
Kurt Vonnegut

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 00:02 | 1610855 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

Albert is 100% right!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:37 | 1610144 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Paper currencies are about to implode so you may have missed one zero. $5000!!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:10 | 1610249 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Gold is a bubble. How do I know? Because Forbes Magazine told me so. Check out these quotes:

The size of the gold ETF screams bubble because it indicates that everybody and their dog have bet all on gold. The relationship between the price of gold and S&P 500 earnings also screams bubble.

The sheer size of the gold ETF virtually guarantees that sellers will not be able to find buyers at current prices.

It is anybody’s guess when gold will correct, but it is very likely that it will be ugly when it does.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:16 | 1610399 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

They only see gold as a paper trade.   Sure is sad.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:39 | 1610802 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Rocky you could not be more right!  ~ nice post.

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 00:24 | 1610888 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

And when will they look at the size of the FRN bubble? Oh crap, now I'm gonna have to go back to the reeducation camp, right?

Yeah yeah yeah...I love Big Brother.

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 06:14 | 1611111 Chris Capre
Chris Capre's picture

Hello Rocky,

Author here.

I do not see gold only as a paper trade.  I own physical silver and gold in a vault and will keep accumulating over time.

But being an investor, a holder or a trader are three different things and I relate to holding physical different than I do trading.

And when I do, I use the charts as a mechanism for finding precise entries and exits.

This article was not meant to provide a strategy for a holder of physical, but more geared towards the investor/trader group which is a different approach and not mutually exclusive.

Hope this explains it further.

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:31 | 1610430 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Re Forbes article on gold bubble.

I also read that article, and nowhere in it does it reference gold becoming

a currency which it has and has been confirmed by the fact that it no longer

trades in any relationship with commodities or equities or even the dollar.

Also nowhere in the article is there any mention of the financial crisis now taking place,

or do they mention the race by major economies to devalue their currencies.

The article only refers to historical behavior of the price of gold and fails to factor

in the change in the political and financial environments.

 

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:40 | 1610451 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

a rally in the dollar is bad for gold. Not likely long term with expected interest rates at nil until at least 2013.

gold on the up and up.

buy coins.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:20 | 1610514 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

Maybe you should consider the words of Adrian Douglas, and that the ETF's are 45 times larger than the physical gold they represent. Bix Weir says it's more like 100. You might not find people willing to buy into their fractional reserve gold ponzi scheme at these prices, but the physical metal is another story.

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 01:08 | 1610955 Freddie
Freddie's picture

All of TV is shit and the print media is the same.  WSJ, Barrons and Forbes all fawning over crony kleptocapitalist Waron Buffert.  They are all lying and attacking gold to depress prices.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:47 | 1610339 Shocker
Shocker's picture

We can only hope gold goes down to $500 / oz

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:16 | 1610394 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

It's unlikely as there is good support at $520:)  Seriously though,  in a deflationary spiral brought on by the unwinding of the $1,500,000,000,000,000.00 in derivatives worldwide gold could go to $500 or so.  Gold has done well in deflationary as well as inflationary environments in purchasing power terms.  Even if gold is nominally priced at $500 its purchasing power will probably be even greater than it is at the moment. In a deflationary environment cash and metals will be king.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:03 | 1610493 The Luftwaffe
The Luftwaffe's picture

Actually, gold went up in nominal terms during the great depression. Besides, in a real deflationary spiral today, banks will lose so much on bad loans that the sytem will collapes, in fact, its already happening with US real estate deflation. I'm convinced that serious deflation will produce a gold stampede

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:23 | 1610519 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Yes.  It's not how many $$$ buys you an oz of gold, it's what an oz of gold will buy you.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:57 | 1610356 constantine
constantine's picture

LookingWithAmazement,

In order to kick all the "paper gold" at the CRIMEX, you would have to kick out the paper shorts along with the paper longs.  I think that price discovery in this scenario would lead to much higher, not lower prices.  This is especially true with gold since one can short the material with out having any inventory or ability to produce the material.  The concept of selling something that one doesn't own is idiocy that only Wall St. geniuses could conjer.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:06 | 1610382 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

agree completely with Constantine

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:19 | 1610408 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

True.   Traditionally it is the shorts who must deliver, but this ain't your traditional market.   JPM is screwed...

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 00:26 | 1610894 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

He who sells what isn't his'n...

Well, Blythe could be your prison bitch, I guess.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:02 | 1610372 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

I'm betting that when the Comex is at $500 the physical will be unavailable. FOFOA has discussed such a breakdown of paper v. physical at length. Best to buy physical now. 

Also commented on at FOFOA: gold behaves differently. it tends to get scarce as the prices rises. Those holding it see this as an affirmation of their decision to hold wealth in this manner.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:30 | 1610424 qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

More charts to look at, but, he's been pretty close to calling turning points... just saying

http://www.scribd.com/doc/63436058/Gold-Report-28AUG11

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:33 | 1610435 Soul Train
Soul Train's picture

Here we go again. EMA SMA call it whatever you want. But it is only trending and greater fool theory. Yada yada bla blah. I've been charting since the 70's and seen my share of reversals. Gold is one that WILL NOT REVERSE. Some hiccups along the way, but up and up.

Fact is fiat money is doomed.

Fuck the charts. Just buy gold, physical coins - buy silver coins too.

Just buy it when you have the cash. Keep your eyes off the trend lines and supports.

Invest and hold for the long term. You'll do very very well.

Physcial only,stay away from paper.

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:04 | 1610055 caerus
caerus's picture

get your yas yas out bitchez

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:05 | 1610057 PaulSchiffT
PaulSchiffT's picture

Gold doesn't seem to be overbought in europe atm...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:06 | 1610058 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

No.  

Maybe short term, who knows?  Think longer term and think about how .gov and the Banksters are screwing us.  Gold will take off!

"All else will be left behind when the Gold Mothership takes off."

ZH-er Gordon_Gekko

Also by GG:

"Buy.Gold.Now."

 

EDIT:

Barron's had an article poopoo-ing gold, at least for the short term

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:11 | 1610074 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Well, http://www.sgxniftydowfutureslive.com/index_files/DOWFUTURES.htm has gold futures down $5.90.

Does that count as unwinding its "overbought" status?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:39 | 1610149 sewerpickle
sewerpickle's picture

it's confussing - says "gold spot" price

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:42 | 1610159 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I do not know the site well.  A kind ZH-er pointed the way there sometime ago.

---

BREAKING NEWS:

Gold down $21.00!  I am so scared!  LOL...

Where is my buddy JonNadler?  Hope not in jail...  Just for you Jon:

Au to $0.02

Ag to $0.01

bitchez!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:23 | 1610100 DosZap
DosZap's picture

DoChen,@18:06
Welcome back Bro..................how's your Taper?,LOL.

My GUT say's up, our friend and most noted Gold Forcaster extrodinaire, Martin A Armstrong, is seeing a seveer pullback into late Sept/Nov, to maybe even the $1350.00 range.

I would hate to bet against Martin.I am torn here, as to whether add Slvr, and wait on the Gold.

I would hate to leave $300/$500.00 an oz on the table now.

OTOH, IF the EU disentegrates next week..........sheeeesh all bets are off.

And the mad dash will most certainly be a moonshot.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:32 | 1610134 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

he said that before it went to $1600 didnt he ?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:37 | 1610657 hayleecomet
Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:11 | 1610748 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

"Between 1970 and 1974 gold rallied from $35 to about $200 on the same default-Fiat hype. Nothing changed, but gold fell into 1976 to $103."

 

he fuct, that already happend after bear sterns collapsed gold was over 1000 and went under 700

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:44 | 1610171 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Dzap, DoChen...

They plaster charts on here showing recent (or not recent) history and then by looking in that rear view mirror (their own chart) they project what will happen next week, next month, etc... In relatively stable times the moving averages are somewhat useful...sometimes.

I believe we can all agree that we are in extrodinary times by any standard... Nothing about the future is certain in these unstable conditions. A chart of moving averages might influence some investors to bid according to the spot price vs moving average, but a person in Asia, Europe, etc,  might have an entirely different set of circumstances or pressures to deal with.

Not to mention, as DZ pointed out, a soverign might purchase whatever is on offer at whatever price, and this single large purchase will swing the spot price accordingly.

I just do not see where charts are of much use in the current economic climate. In fact, I have never used them and have accumulated for generations. I am here, we are all here, some used charts, some did not... yet we have arrived at this same time/place together.

I hope for the sake of stability that PMs continue in their current channels and we avoid large swings in price... but it isn't going to effect me one way or the other. Just keep accumulating and ship as much as possible to safe locations... don't keep all eggs in the same basket... and good luck.

 

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:29 | 1610298 fswalker
fswalker's picture

Your T/A bashing troll posts are starting to get a little too irritating. Why would you bother clicking on a link with a clear chart attached to it then comment on how bs this so called voodoo style of anaylisis is? Fuking troll.

 

The fact you've been accumulating PM since the early 1900's is a clear indication you are a few genrations too old to even get a real grasp of what T/A and trading off T/A is really about. So rather than bashing it, stick to what you're good at and leave these so called paper profits to those in the know how.

 

Food for thought: Just because you couldnt figure out a way to profit off charts does not invalidate its importance nor true potential to the select few who manage to get their head around it.

 

best of luck. 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:39 | 1610324 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

You are irritated? Too bad... Perhaps you should go somewhere less irritating?

Where are the pictures of the customers yachts?

If I interfere with your snake oil sales you should complain to the management... Or the nearest regulatory agency... if there are any left.

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 01:31 | 1610980 fswalker
fswalker's picture

Old people dont irritate me, i tend to listen to their stories & point of view.  My open mindedness steers me in the right direction with a clear target in sight, while allowing me to spot where others have failed in their thinking.

When i read a story with a fundamentally different bias to my investment approach / trading strategy, my intention is to take away as much as I can from it rather than bash the theory at play. I might disagree with certain parts of it but that doesnt invalidate the idea as a whole. I know where my limitations lie thus my understanding on certain subjects might be limited. 

It sounds as though you've made an attempt at T/A, but like many people, have given up too early or simply couldnt figure it out.  Its not you fault. Playing the market from a traders perspective isnt for everyone. Sounds like you've found what works for you and accumulating physical is a part of your long term strategy. Im with you on your long term investment approach, however I know for a fact that once T/A is paired with a sound trading strategy, consistent profits are also attainable.

 

No hard feelings. Wealth preservation is key, but there is nothing like a great day of profit earning ;)

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:33 | 1610309 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Clive Maund called gold overbought last week. This week he's not sure whether the charts can be trusted.

 

"...There is talk in some quarters about gold having broken out into some kind of super steep uptrend channel, but by our reckoning it hasn't - yet, at least. Instead it has arrived at the upper return line of the broad channel in a massively overboughtstate which is why it reacted so heavily early last week...although it has bounced, it will take a break clear above $1900 to initiate a melt-up phase...(otherwise) odds favor immediate consolidation reaction..."

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:05 | 1610377 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Exactly Snidley.  Fundamentals bury technicals in times like this.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:23 | 1610415 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Right on Tuco... But that doesn't stop desperate snake oil salesmen from making a pitch!

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:03 | 1610491 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Technically speaking, what is your Fundamental approach on the { DNT} @ 1.065 and 1.0415 aud/usd?  

 

         Yard Boy?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:58 | 1610581 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Yon Krill! How exciting to have your worthless troll azz back among the living. Get tired of the zombies?

You do know what krill is, eh?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:08 | 1610607 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Krill as in " Whale meat"?  Tank ass?  Trolling is new to me/ Enlighten the Forum Ya ( Totum Smoker(?

 

     Cordially , Yen Cross.    Out of curosity? Can you read a clock?     Yes I clocked your worthless " Diatribe" for the second time...

 

    You are a{ Fossile}....

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:59 | 1610488 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Who is They? Snidley read the charts! Ya Tool!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:02 | 1610589 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Who is they? Why, snake oil chartists like yourself... look in the mirror (take the bag off your head first) and you will find one of 'they'... lol

You drive around in your Mercedes with the bag on? Afraid of scaring people? Hey, it's ok... We are adults here and can look a snake oil salesman in the face... Even when the snake oil salesman can't look at itself in the mirror.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:00 | 1610584 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'll give you a (+) one on the first paragraph...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:03 | 1610593 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I appreciate it, Yon Krill... I need all the friends I can get and it pleases me no end that I can count you among them.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:13 | 1610617 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

No come back! You never cease/ to lack desire! Ya TOOL!

 

     Get Creative? Challenge me? > Mis spell? Ya Tool!

 Hey Snidley / where is your bottom on the spx?   11?

 

   At least I Cap your name. Respect! Learn it !

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:57 | 1610704 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Respect is earned boy, it cannot be given...and you sho aint earned none!

Yon Krill... thats yo name boy from now on... get used to it.

Yo sorry yo picked on po defenseless Snidley, boy? hehehe

Yo life just took a turn for the out house boy...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:45 | 1610816 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Snidley apparently you are in a Time Warp. Learn to SPELL and call me on Cartmans Future Phone. You have and never will have any game. Fat ass / hut smoking / sombrero wearing/ Lib - Tard!!!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:51 | 1610832 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Yon Krill! I cannot believe you are talking to me!...and I thought we had become friends!

It must be a mistake... surely you meant those negative vibes for another? Say it's so!

It's near 15pm and gold is ensconced at ~ 1825 or so... Near siesta time, eh?

Oh, I reckon I won't be calling you boy... I couldn't communicate with someone that believes respect can be given... like some silly award that is given to an actor or Keynesian scum bag... 

Maybe when you grow up a bit...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:49 | 1610187 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Martin Armstrong and FOFOA are geniuses.  But, I go with my trail guide FOFOA, I buy gold when I have some extra dough.  So the paper price goes down to $1200.  So what?  I just will keep buying...  When I have enough fiat around for an oz or two, hey I go buy, price does not matter.  BTFS, BTFD, matters not to me.

Our latest Taper is one for Hyundai...  And it is a (sales) erection!  For Hyundai H-1 (Gran Starex), a model not sold in the USA, it is a popular minivan in Peru.  And we have the monopoly...

:)

Oh wait.  Did you mean Taper some other way?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:03 | 1610228 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I read Armstrong and most of what he says makes sense to me... but when he gets into those long cycles and repeating numbers ... well, I tune that out.

We do not need some long repititous cycle to explain what is happening to the world economy today. A problem of too much debt cannot be solved by issuing more debt. It's that simple... The debt has to be written down or inflated away... Why do we need any chart of any type to discern this problem?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:03 | 1610375 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Or "deflated" away.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:30 | 1610428 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Right...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:16 | 1610508 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Do Chen, LOL..............No Taper in the bearing sense, as in roller,race,etc,etc............LOL

Here's the link I was speaking of, I respect this dude, because Sinclair holds him in high regard, and Livermore,and Mises.

 

http://armstrongeconomics.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/armstrongeconomics-gold-market-082411.pdf

If Martin is seeing this, one should at least be aware of it, as Snidely said, CHARTS,MACD's,RSI's EMA's,50',200DMA's, mean SQUAT with the "other crap we have going on worldwide".

In this sense charts/Fibs, etc,etc do not MEAN doodly SQUAT.

And again as Snidley stated, WHEN you are in totally uncharted waters, and the worn out CLICHÉ' of "This time it's different".

Means NOTHING..........because for ONCE in my life,this time  it "IS" different, NO ONE alive has seen this scenario, NO ONE.

So we are all, in all REALITY flying by our seat of the pants.

In the LONG  haul, buying at $1,850.00, $1,300.00, doesn't matter.............

Just make sure you have what your ( AS Mr.Jim puts it) quanity is you can SLEEP at night (comfortably at hand) with in hand.

And he warns, those that sell here (even if they maintain a solid holding), will REGRET it the rest of their lives.

And, as always the consummate gentleman he is, he always seeks to guide us thru, not push.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:23 | 1610629 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

DosZap: "in hand."

My preference would be to have enough gold to fill a large picnic basket than just in my hand...

I too hold Armstrong and Sinclair in high regard.  But, I am trying to think long term here...  My long-term spidey tingly sense is that physical gold should be BOUGHT whenever possible.  It may dry up!  FOFOA sez that as the price goes higher, the supply (counterintuitively) gets scarce.

But, hey, we will see.  I am comfortable with a good economy and all that.  I like all that!  But, if things go bad, I want to be around...  And help my kid become a parent.

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 06:34 | 1611115 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"My long-term spidey tingly sense is that physical gold should be BOUGHT whenever possible."

The objective has always been to relieve them of as much as possible.

They can do less harm to themselves & others that way ;-)

"The money is gold, and nothing else.”  JP Morgan Testimony before the Pujo Committie 1912

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:22 | 1610102 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I used to read National Lampoon, now I read Barron's and WSJ for laughs.  Question: does The Onion own WSJ?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:41 | 1610156 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

As long as they have none, they will try anything to bring it down.  Or, listen to the rigged gansters and buy what Barrons recomends.  Maybe some Google or Apple, or IBM??  Sure makes sense to me with no growth in spending around the entire universe.

 

Gold may come down when dumbo is out of the White House and we get someone responsible in there.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:02 | 1610371 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

The position is that of a puppet.  It matters not who sits in the White House.  Have we still not figured this out?!  Remember how Bush was going to reign in the budget and Obama was going to bring the troops home.  How many more decades of proof do you need?!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:35 | 1610442 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You just ain't too smart, are ya fella?

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 00:33 | 1610907 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

He's here, so there is hope he'll figure out why you said that.  Thanks for the laugh, Rocky!

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 00:42 | 1610911 SilverTech
SilverTech's picture

Someone responsible in the White House? What planet are you living on? That statement is so naive...  What a maroon!

Also, Gold is overbought? Yeah, and real estate is oversold.

So the smart TA trade is to go long houses and short gold.

See how that works out for ya.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:05 | 1610059 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Gold: As compared to what? The Dollar?,The Euro? Land? Just BTFD. and hi ho silver away!! (Bitchez)

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:05 | 1610060 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

More margin hikes and more concentrated short games to come! 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:06 | 1610062 Prepared
Prepared's picture

Lookingwithamazement, please fill my bong with more of what you're smoking...that's nutz beyond nutzdom!!

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:06 | 1610063 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

The Barbarous relic opened at $1,840. Its amazing how it really gives the technicals the middle finger.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:43 | 1610167 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

The circus in Shi_hicago has yet to open for the gansters to manipulate it. Maybe the clowns will give us another margin hike, there usually good for a day down and $100 up.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:07 | 1610065 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Bollinger bands were meant to be widened and bent upwards.

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:10 | 1610069 DrFever
DrFever's picture

People should caution against being overly complacent.  I am long term bull but all this talk about gold never being able to come down and when it does it is because of some manipulated event, and all this talk about gold everywhere you turn or at dinner parties when investment ideas come up is really starting to get my guard up.

How I long for the day again when gold quietly rose.  For this reason I hate parabolic moves ... they usually warn of something grave on the horizon.  Everyone is dismissing the gold bubble theory and because of that, I worry.

Be cautious.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:19 | 1610093 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, it's OK to be cautious.  Buy gold when you have the money!  You do not have to go "all in" or spend ALL your fiats at once.

Buying here and there will yield GREAT results.  It has for me.  For decades.  And if gold goes down to $1200?  So what?  I will just buy at that level too.

Gold, of course, could have an alarming downdraft for those not ready for that.  "The ten thousand things rise and fall without cease" -- Lao Tse (?)

Buy gold, do not be alarmed, but, yes OK, when it is near its high and your cocktail party neighbors are talking about PHYSICAL gold, well then worry.  The PAPER gold price will eventually mean very little, as gold becomes hard to get.

PHYSICAL gold is the key here.  If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

fofoa.blogspot.com

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:56 | 1610699 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Paper currency is the bubble. The idea that ppl will be willing to forever trade their labor for a fraudulent, unbacked, and constantly depreciating debt money is the bubble. Our 'money' has been nothing but air for only 40-45 years (silver coin, gold convertability).

I WANT everyone to talk about and own gold. The more the merrier. Makes it more and more THE money and speeds the dollar collapse.

That is not the case tho. Go to a coin shop in a major town - there's a massive liquidation going on with the masses. Spoons, tea sets, old coins are being sold to meet expenses.

It is the great transfer of wealth from the masses to the elites. It will leave the masses with nothing in the great collapse. I'd be much happier if the masses were buying and not selling. It would lessen the riots and the coming facism. Distributed wealth not concentrated.

Gold is money. Fiat is air. Which is in a bubble?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:20 | 1610094 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

that's just it. its all talk. do you know anyone that owns gold bullion?  

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:25 | 1610114 DrFever
DrFever's picture

High Plains Drifter ...

Yes I know many that own gold bullion, as do I.

However, the other day my barber mentioned buying gold to me for the very first time.  Why would anyone buy something that moved $400 in a few short weeks to hit an all time high?  THAT is asset bubble talk.  Its no different than when people were rushing out to buy silver at or near $50.00 because silver was "going to the moon".  Let me see ... it's been almost 4 months and they are still well under water on their investment.

THAT is what concerns me.

For the record I am long physical bullion (as I have been since the days of triple digit prices) but I did enter a short position late Friday afternoon via a futures contract and put poisitions on the GLD. I am not convinced this consolidation is over.  I see another margin hike coming that might cool the metal for a bit.  I expect a period of consolidation here.

Cheers

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:31 | 1610132 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

well on the other hand , you have all of these gold buying places popping up all over the place. they are postitioning for the time when they think they can profit off of the sheep selling jewelry etc ...i think....

 

your barber has been listening to glenn beck too much.  :)     no, i think most investors and baby boomers don't understand gold and don't own any and don't want any. number 1, they all think it is much too expensive and besides, they want interest on their money, harde har har har....the amerikans do not understand what is coming....

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:36 | 1610143 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Some of us do, although I don't spend a lot of time trying to defend the matrix addicted pop culture knuckledraggers.  I tell everyone buy PMs, they tell me to buy more tinfoil.  

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:42 | 1610166 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

when you talk about gold to the sheep, you get this look.........

 

glenn went to israhole to kiss ass and now he witnessed his own demise.....his show sank like a rock. his career is over soon enough. and it all has to do with his comments concerning reform rebbes. he called me one time and asked me if he should say that on the air. i told that boy stay away from it but noooooooooooooooooo, just couldn't do it. had to piss in the yiddish cornflakes. so now he is showed the door and he learns who the boss is and even though he gets on his knees and begs forgiveness, they still destroy him. such is life in the gulag amerika...

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:49 | 1610189 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

reform rebbes?

His demonization of "9/11 truthers" is what turned me away.  I used to be a big fan of his back in my neo-con days. The NWO tear factory Beckedict Arnold was transitory.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:09 | 1610247 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

do you remember the show on fox where he compared reform judaism to militant islam?  this is where he got in major poop, with the ptb....i am speculating here, but many people like lieberman and cantor etc and many others had promised him they would be at his show in israhole. well they were no shows and his shows there were sparsely attended. i think this was on purpose. he is a mormon and the mormons have this strange association with israhole from the getgo......so number 1, nevertheless, you don't diss reform judaism while you are working at fox news in new york........this is the lesson that he learned and still is learning. he pissed in the wrong cornflakes and i predict it will be the downfall of his career , all over that stupid comment.......

 

do you remember what beck did to  texas governatorial candidate debra medina?  he screwed her around and this caused her campaign to almost fold overnight so his good buddy rick the dickster perry could be reelected. now that piece of trash glenn beck  is living near dallas......good grief....welcome to  texas glenn beck, you traitorous scumbag.... 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:17 | 1610262 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Thanks. I'm going to look for that episode on youtube.

 

Glenn Beck- Restoring Bullshit

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:20 | 1610272 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzWi1X8uHLw

this is what cost him his job at fox and this is what will cost him his radio career, imho....

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:32 | 1610782 Rinpocheinp
Rinpocheinp's picture

Oh, boo-dy, hoo, hoo.. The fucking kike master (Abraham) lashes a non-Jew to stoke kissing kikey Jew ass -- for daring to imply that Jews are bred to conspire for power. Suck my fucking Christian cock you kike lickers and slave non-Jew gold fags.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:27 | 1610289 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

this is one where he screws debra medina, a good candidate for governor all for his good buddy rick perry...who is the globalist candidate and chump for governor ...

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8aKN_FaNsk

i happened to be listening to him on friday. i like to hear what the enemy is talking about. he tried to whitewash the whole situation in israhole . he said he lost over a million dollars. the whole thing was complete waste of time and money and a complete flop....he was broadcasting from south africa on friday. he said he would be having a meeting at a church by dallas on sunday at 1:00 pm, so that tells me , he and his family have already moved to around dallas. i don't keep up with him that much but it is my understanding that he was moving to around dallas somewhere. he wants to get in more friendly environment than new york perhaps.... many people here don't like him because of what he did to debra.....

its ok, i wish all of the traitors would move to texas. that way, it will be much easier to find them when the time comes...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:49 | 1610341 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Wow. That attack on Medina pissed me off.  I hope when the truth about 9/11 eventually reaches a tipping point, people like Beck are prosecuted as accessories after the fact.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:30 | 1610426 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

the guy used to be a drug addict and a drunk (by his own admission) then suddenly he is a conservative talk show host. funny how things like that happen isn't it?  almost overnight he became a expert on all things constitution. when the tea party first started he was telling anyone that would listen how bad it was and now he is for it. this guy is not a friend of liberty. none of them are really. if they said anything remotely near the truth, they would not have a career in radio, that is for sure.  truth is not a popular subject because it makes the ears itch and causes discomfort....to the sheep while they live in their little worlds made up of football, baseball and apple pie...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:49 | 1610467 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The Beck atmosphere around here has really changed.  Used to be that anyone who trashed him got junked off.   Thank goodness folks are seeing him for what he really is/was:  Goofy.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 21:08 | 1610500 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

yes you are correct. they are beginning to see beck for what he is. all talk and no action....he was calling tea party people terrorist when the tea party first started. now that the tea party has been corrupted, he thinks they are cool. yeh we got this guy read and it was real easy...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:20 | 1610273 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

I never really had a dog in that hunt until GB hung Medina out to dry. She basically tied Hutchinson and would have possibly forced a run off between Medina and Perry if GB didn't pull that stunt.

Regards,

Cooter

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:29 | 1610297 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

hutchinson never did shit in her senate career and she wanted to come to texas and do the same here. this woman debra medina wanted to do the right thing for the people and for this ,she is setup and gotten rid of.....such is life in the gulag amerika....

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:56 | 1610355 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Yes, unfortunately Glenn is a false patriot.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:56 | 1610205 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

India has millions of small gold shops that have been run by families for generations. They are not like 'we buy gold scrap' shops that have sprung up in the US recently. The competition between shops in India is fierce and they survive on narrow profit margins... Not like the US where shops cheat people of the value of their gold.

If you had visited there you would know this to be true. And if you tell an Indian that they 'cannot eat gold' they will laugh and point to 3 gold shops on the same block where gold can be exchanged for fiat, or vice versa, at any time.

What the West does not know about the East is stunning.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:49 | 1610469 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

In India the women are the banks. When the family saves a little money they buy gold or silver jewelry for the wives. When times get tough and they need to make a withdrawal, the jewelry gets sold.

An ordinary person does not have a bank account. That is the way it is in India, and a lot of other countries. It has been that way for thousands of years.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:09 | 1610609 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Diogenes... Sort of makes one wonder if they had a national economic crisis caused by a bygone banking sector... Like, they probably learned their lesson with banker scum long ago.

Right about the women wearing their assets... and the brides dowry plays a large part in landing a suitable bride.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 23:49 | 1610822 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Have you ever been to India? I have...  You make some valid points/ but they are a bit extreme.

 

  Update Snidly: Russia /India? You tell me Ebonics Boy?!

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 00:01 | 1610851 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Like Johnny Cash boy... I been everywhere man...

Been to countries in Africa where the names were changed two and three times since I was there... hehehe

Hey Yon Krill... You ever been to Crete, Malta, Lebanon, Syria? Have you lived in Japan for four years? Ever been to Newfoundland? Now, Copenhagen... thats a city to spin your lights, eh?

Been to Palma De Mayorca when the Scandanivians are on holiday there? Some times boy...

Yeah boy I been around the block a few times... Never met a chart freak that I set much store by, though... including... make that especially you... hehehe

Though I didn't know Magellen and he was good with charts so I hear... Course ol Magellen was betting his life on his charts being accurate... and you are betting what? Your coustomers money? hehehe Boy, you need another line of work...

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:43 | 1610168 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

I find ZHers sometimes worry about this way too much. Contrast a few people at a dinner party talking about gold (but not all of them owning it) or a barber to the housing buble where everyone and his dog was in on the action and the general consensus was housing only goes up and you see how long we still have to go. 10& more of the populations of the us and western europe need to own gold before I think of selling. But yes, like you, I long for the days of quite orderly increases - but they're gone.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:34 | 1610312 Inibo E. Exibo
Inibo E. Exibo's picture

it's been almost 4 months and they are still well under water on their investment.

If that's all the further people are looking they shouldn't be buying PMs.  If those same people had keep on buying after May 5th they'd be flirting with green now.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:54 | 1610348 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Gold is not an investment.  It is "insurance".  99% of Americans are underinsured!

Tuco

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:49 | 1610466 Inibo E. Exibo
Inibo E. Exibo's picture

 

99% of Americans are uninsured!

 

FIFY.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:21 | 1610097 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

There is talk about gold but who actually owns any ?

Thanks for providing the much needed doubt to make gold shoot past $2000 this September and October

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:27 | 1610119 DrFever
DrFever's picture

Spitzer ... your post is exactly what I mean.  People become highly dismissive of the fact that something can be overbought and end up losing.  "Thanks for providing the much needed doubt to make gold shoot past $2,000" ... that is bubble talk man.  Like I said ... caution.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:42 | 1610139 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

This is ZEROHEDGE , not Bloomberg.

Look at all the doubt and this is on ZEROHEDGE !

Selling gold is all the rage with the sheeple, not buying it.

 holy fuck.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:00 | 1610218 Thomas
Thomas's picture

I have trouble keeping the two straight.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:54 | 1610198 toto
toto's picture

You can't fool me Cartman.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:12 | 1610252 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

DrFever... The few people buying/discussing PMs on Zero Hedge are not going to have much influence on the PMs markets.

The big players are now in the East... SE Asia, India, Mid East, etc.

Read what Ben Davies has to say about where the big demand is coming from.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 22:37 | 1610659 Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

The big players are the central  banks. Looking for the top from the talk of barbers, taxi drivers and J6p (who has no money) will make you look for the wrong signals. 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:26 | 1610288 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

DrFever is short Gold. I can smell the fear.

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 10:12 | 1611509 DrFever
DrFever's picture

Not afraid at all fiddler  ... In fact I recommended people short gold at the top.

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2011/08/time-to-take-closer-look-at-gold.html

Then I advised to cover as level reached

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-continues-to-tumble-position.html

And then Friday I went short again on the bounce.

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2011/08/trading-idea-in-goldretracement-level.html

How is your investment doing this Monday morning?

Never get attached to any investment.  EVER.  Long term bullish on gold doesn't mean I can't spot an overbought condition.

Have a great day

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:56 | 1610354 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Who gives a fuck?  The people here are cost averaging.  Gold would have to plunge below $1000 for me to be in the red in dollar terms.  Silver would have to go below $17.

There could be corrections, but who gives a fuck?  In a year it'll be up 100%.  Then the trolls will have to get new names again, because they just look stupid as shit.  You know, sort of like they had to do this year, and the year before (multiple times throughout the year in both cases, actually).

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:08 | 1610383 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Then the trolls will have to get new names again, because they just look stupid as shit."

Right on TMosley... We got a flock of new trolls tonite... It's fun to fuck with them till bed time. :)

Mon, 08/29/2011 - 03:38 | 1611061 chindit13
chindit13's picture

I'll add that most posters are America-centric.

The exact numbers escape me, but a recent---and oft quoted---poll revealed that a sizeable numbers of Americans could not come up with $1000 in the event of an emergency.  What does an ounce of gold cost?  The average America does not represent a great deal of buying power anymore.

If gold is a bubble, it will be the shoe shiners and cab drivers in China or India who will signal the end is nigh.  It is the role of new money to determine, by its behavior, market tops.  What the typical American does with his/her money is much less relevant in today's world, since Americans are cash poor and debt-strapped.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:38 | 1610148 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Dr. Fever,@ 18:10,

While I agree w/ you to an extent, we STILL have not seen the TRADITIONAL Parabolic frenetic buying by your Average J6p's here in the US.

Folks that travel in the circles you do, and a lot here, of course are going to be talking it up, and to death.

BUT, we are the few, that actually are moving the markets here(and the paper Traders) are doing the bulk of that.

I would like to see the prices on Pm's here, if the PAC Rims,and India's, Russia, were not in the picture.

They were not BACK in the Day............

Still, I am amazed at the MSM idiots calling this a parabolic move.

Not with a $200.00 pull back.................and J6P, still not even buying ONE silver round.Much less GOLD.

If you were around in the 79-80 fiasco, you remember, THE US was the mkt, and everyone who had the money was buying hand over fist.(And got this fist).

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 18:45 | 1610174 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

What is the alternative Mr Reasonable?  Treasuries, dollars, stocks, popcorn???  lol!!!

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:57 | 1610481 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Good question. Stock market stinko. Real estate double stinko. Bonds, GICs, interest rates at an all time low.

What are people supposed to invest in? Franklin Mint Elvis plates? If you don't like gold and silver, what?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:17 | 1610263 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Well, gold (and silver) for me is insurance. If it collapses, then all my paper retirement will still be some semblence of its par value.

The things I have learned since '08 and the history I have read since then (e.g. Fosters Fiat Paper Money) has resolved me to slowly accumulate for the rest of my working years.

Price only effects the rate I can accumulate. :-)

Regards,

Cooter

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:38 | 1610320 Dyler Turden II Esq
Dyler Turden II Esq's picture

Just remember that the "everyone" dismissing the gold bubble theory is here on ZH, and on a few other more or less obscure (relative to MSM) sites and fora.  "Everyone" amidst this very small, select crowd, yes.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:47 | 1610336 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Good point TD2... and a couple of billion people in SE Asia that have never visited any site and are buying PMs...

Anyone think the new middle class in SE Asia are reading any PM site in the West?

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:58 | 1610486 smore
smore's picture

Like others have said, a time of crisis isn't a time for TA.  Gold WILL be over $2000 by the end of the year.  Silver is a far better buy.

Bubble?  Just remember

THE BASIC LAWS OF HUMAN STUPIDITY

http://www.searchlores.org/realicra/basiclawsofhumanstupidity.htm

 

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 19:42 | 1610329 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

all this talk about gold everywhere you turn or at dinner parties when investment ideas come up is really starting to get my guard up

Reminder - "everyman" doesn't do dinner parties. You're still in the top 10%.

Sun, 08/28/2011 - 20:14 | 1610392 mr66
mr66's picture

They may be talking about gold at dinner parties but they've got NONE for themselves.  Stop worrying or buy some puts for sleep insurance.

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