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Guest Post: Has Gold Unwound its Overbought Status?
Submitted by Chris Capre of Second Skies LLC
Has Gold Unwound its Overbought Status?
One of the biggest questions being written about which is on traders and analysts minds is whether Gold has moved into bubble territory and is about to start a major reversal, or is going to keep on truckin’ Blind Boy Fuller style. While my fundamental hat suggests it’s likely to continue its trend (as a hedge against bad govt’s), being a quantitative price action and ichimoku trader, I have to see what the technical picture is communicating.
For looking at whether a market is in an extreme phase and is set to reverse, we often look towards our weekly 20EMA spread. This model plots the distance from the weekly closing price to the 20EMA as a gauge of market extremes or whether the trend is likely to continue. If a market is at an extreme level, it usually has a very large spread from the 20EMA. Any abnormal spread from the 20EMA is likely to return to the 20EMA.
Looking at the chart below, you are seeing the weekly chart on Gold over the last 6 years. In this chart, you can see price’s movement and its relationship to the 20EMA, along with the lower indicator/model representing the spread between the week’s closing price and the 20EMA.
We have highlighted the key peaks which generally occurred around a 1258 reading, or price having $125.8 price spread from the weekly closing price to the 20EMA. This generally led to a pullback minimally to the 20EMA within an average of 4 weeks and a maximum of 10. We would like to note that historically, since April of 2005, Gold has spent only 43 weeks below the 20EMA (closing basis) out of 541 for a total of 8% of the time, statistically displaying its tendency to trend upward. It also means should Gold break below the 20EMA, the chances of price staying below it for extended periods of time are unlikely.
What we do have to note is the most recent parabolic run away from the 20EMA created an abnormal spike never before seen in history with a reading of 2718 or price closing $271.8 away from the 20EMA. So the next logical question becomes what do we make of this and is it the end of this massive uptrend?
Our view is this is unlikely, considering the historical relationship to the 20EMA as noted before (8% of time below). In fact, we may consider a pullback to the 20EMA to be a healthy thing as it will put Gold through a re-distribution phase and allow the order flows behind it to start another run higher.
But, the extreme nature of this suggests price is likely to pullback to the 20ema within the next 2mos or by year end. Across most instruments, price rarely has this kind of extreme or unstable relationship to the 20EMA and usually means the orders behind such movements have to normalize a bit before starting another run. Keep in mind, this does not have to happen with a violent sell-off and could be the result of price hanging around the $1700-$1900 range while the 20EMA catches up to current price levels.
In fact, to add any new positions, we’d rather wait to let the spread normalize and move back into the prior range which suggested a very healthy trend.
We also do have to add to the bullish prospects how price had one of its biggest weekly drops from an open of $1860.92, to an all-time high of $1911.89, then shedding $209 to the weekly $1702 low to do what??? Bounce strongly and end the week at $1827. This is highly suggestive of how the buyers were ready to stand up to one of the most violent and largest % based weekly sell-offs and send the metal within roughly $40 or 2% of where it opened the week.
Thus, although the short-term price structure may suggest consolidation or mild pullback to the 20EMA, our medium and long term technical view is still strongly bullish.
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Never doubt the monthly chart. The momentum is apparent. Just that you can't forecast the day/time when prices move in your favour. I'm thinking a re-test of the 1980 inflation-adjusted high. We could see sideways trade until the 13-week EMA is met.
In the backround if the markets collide with reality, then sure, a correction is in order.
"We could see"
If yo chart cain do no better dan dat yo better get another line of snake oil... hehehe
XAU was un- wound 5 margin hikes ago. Yes GOLD is a great hedge! It doesn't buy Broccoli? How many people got blown up last week on the ETF? Ya right!
Every one is (a) ( WINNER)?
Is this Sesame Street? Buy the / DEEP DIPS ( Elmer Fudd)
Yon Krill, yo jus all over dis boad, eh boy... yo a gooood troll...
I gots physical boy and it's all ober da world. Howya like dem apples boy?
Yo still wearin dat bag? Are ya a Saints/Aints fan boy? hehehe
For looking at whether a market is in an extreme phase and is set to reverse, we often look towards our weekly 20EMA spread. This model plots the distance from the weekly closing price to the 20EMA as a gauge of market extremes or whether the trend is likely to continue. If a market is at an extreme level, it usually has a very large spread from the 20EMA. Any abnormal spread from the 20EMA is likely to return to the 20EMA
[...and on an on ad nauseum.]
Thanks for reminding me (again) why I have no use for "technical analysis". What a crock of shit.
Bernanke keeps printing therefore gold will keep rising.
That's the bottom line.
Well spoken C/O/G [ cog] I prefer sma's . Simple moving averages on the proper charts are priceless.
Parden the pun. i like a 10 /20 crossover on the { DXY}. I like your thoughts .
Thank You, Yen
Yon Krill! I'm amazed! You agreeing with someone that tells the truth? You must be coming down with a dose of something, eh boy?
Better have yo mama dig out that rectal thermometer and put it where the sun don't shine... See if yo bees sik...Can't have you down wit something when you are needed to compile snake oil analysis...hehehe
Snidley/ I have an Ambulance for sale. Whale Meat boy... I'm Just beginning to have fun with you.
Hey Snidley, what is ( Sterilization) get used to the term!
Yon Krill... Yo boy Ise havin fun wit chu too...
Sterilization...hmmm... I reckon dat mus be what dey done to yo mama when dey seed yo ugly mug pokin out?
Is dat why yo be wearin dat bag boy? hehehe...
Gramatical Educate? Are you even bared? Oh in Tex ar cana? Speekin z Deutche?
since when does <1% of the population holding physical = overbought?
i love bringing that one up with my colleagues who parrot that shit. first i ask, "how many of you knuckleheads loan a home?" about half of them proudly claim so. then i ask how many of you hold any physical PMs? then i try not to laugh as i watch them shut the fuck up.
when it refers to gold, it is not about charts but fundamentals......bitchez
Nap time?
stocks are overbought now. major correction forming.
Respectfully. Why are stocks over bought? I won't say anything. Just asking. Thank You .
Well you have markets running on air, marked up distribution trades, insiders buying, optimism gathering, resistance levels knocked out etc etc etc. Check your charts pre: techincal destruction of markets three weeks back
Buying into these ranges you would be insane.
I am a man of my word. I respect your input. Thank You/ Yen
Yon Krill!!! Yo bein so polite tonite wees don know ifin its yo? Soun like yo don had yo butt kicked real good, eh boy?
When yo comin down heah boy? We likes company...hehehe
Nice / Gramatical Educate. Law Skool?
Yon Krill! Youse talkin bout skool daze? Yo bin to skool boy? Where yo go skool?
Yo soun like one dem boys been gone to som fancy comminty colege skool, zat rite?
Yo don lern som stuf? What yo lern? Yo lern sumpin bout dis boy?
aV(x)
a(x) = -(R+jwL) I (x)
aI(x) = -(G+jwC) V (x)
a(x)
or yo jus bsin us bout noin sumpin?
Yo splain dis one to me boy... hehehe I be givin yo a hint... the V aint Velocity of bucks...hehehe
Is that ( Captcha log in's) What in the hell is JWL =r < (r/l(x) ) -I is X ( jwl) Or G =R+L ( V/I) =x
Any way you write you are a tool!
Overbought??????????? Are you kidding me? Look at AUD/USD. THIS CRAP IS RIDICULOUS ONLY IN THE WAY THAT ELITE CAN DO RIDICULOUS. It's a not funny joke. Go short with tons of space above. Be patient and call these asshats bluff. Even if you lose, it's worth the couple bucks spent toying with these dumbasses. No more free market?
Time will tell.
RBA and China normalizing. I see a test of post float highs .
"I see a test of"
But yo doan guaranteee nothin, eh boy? Yo jus 'see a test of' and expeck udder folk to bet on yo guess? lol... nice work boy, iffin yo can get it...lol
Snidley, I have charts to study! Thanks for the bantering. P/S check out the gbp/jpy hourly. Also eur/aud broke the 50 level.
You waste my time . How ever you seem to be a Great ebonics / Ambulance chaser?
Do you actually take your self seriously? Libor?
Yon Krill... hate to see you go fore you read the math question up thread a bit, boy. Use gots edumacation so use shuld nok dat wun right out ez... you tell me when use figgered it out boy...hehehe
Basic algebra Snidley? How about Delta on the long end and Alpha one the the POMO charts? How about the Auction list?
Snidley you bore me . Stay Dominican, You belong there!
There are only two bubbles left to pop - debt and the dollar. That gold is rising concurrent with US Treasuries should tell everyone that the markets are way out of balance.
Folks like me holding physical gold (especially bought over time from low three digit $ to as recently as a few weeks ago) aren't going to be swayed by bubble talk, "overbought", margin hikes, or any transient moves through $1600, $2000, or any other number. That's because we're not holding it for a % return.
Worst case is we get to hand down a load of shiny heirlooms for our kids & grandkids...but the real issue isn't the price of gold, it's the value of the two-sided linen paper with specialty ink that people seem to think is worth exchanging for hard assets.
Germany is failing..
which would have helped keep CONTAGION from Europe spreading to the United States.
The U.S. has a continuing Depression..
which NONE! of the Structural Issues have been reviewed and / or fixxed.. Think Investment Banks Gambling with CD's from the retail side..
China has just implemented a TRUE! Gold for Renminbi Settlement Window..
and the Chinese know there World is faker than fake, thusly they have been moving money off shore and buying as much Gold and silver as they can find..
QE3 is on deck..
But Gold is going to trade down?
the only reason gold is down now is becuase the FED bought Gold Down with Tax Dollars like they always do.
How is this even a topic for conversation?
AND!!
You cant eat it, BITCHEZ!!
Germany is failing, check.
US is stalled (at best, ost likely already going down again), check.
QE3 already surrepticiously underway (Thomas Donlan, this weekend's Barron's), check.
NO financial issues solved NOR crooks of significance are in jail, check.
China knows ALL ABOUT ALL FAKERY, check.
What's that mean? JW, that means you and I should be buying gold and guns & ammo!
It means futures are up right now.
Figures. Of course futures are up.
Bullish!
The financial markets, which have always been perplexing to a Bearing with no brain, seem to be even weirder than ever. Maybe they changed the grease on the axle?
Bloomberg says futures are climbing because Bernanke has calmed the markets. Who actually swallows this stuff?
Wow, Bloomberg swallows. No wonder he is so popular.
The market is manipulated 100-1 and these ass holes talk about much needed corrections. Organized crime.
yeah major selling on EZ falling off the cliff this time. Can't see crazy ass Bernanke doing a hell of a lot even with QE3. Most that nutjob will do is kill the USD send oil bid and freak out China. Nah volatlity doomsday trade lurking. Tight.
I remember the high, tight flag formation which has signalled some of my best equity/call purchasing. This reminds me of that signal. Not that I care particularly. My trading days are long gone. These days, I let the bankers trade al the front run and worthless paper they want- and pretend that this market/economy in general... is healthy.
i don't trade any more, either, but a do follow some technicians on a weekly basis, just to inform my thinking, which is also + phyzzZZ
i like gold and silver as a pair of fine horses pulling a nice little coach: the PM rig & pair.
silver had the lead in pulling the PM bull coach up intil it got tired in may, then gold took the lead. now, gold is looking like a tuckered horse compared to silver which looks, "technically" to have built itself a nice little launch platform for after labor day, and may even be chomping at the bit right now
altho many people have made wondrous fortunes fading my calls, this PM bull is still intact imo, and gold may well be due for a rest and be supported by the price gains in silver, here, as pre-may, as we move into september
the banksters are exuding confidence, but the short-sale ban which was set to expire last friday got extended, in the euro-peon "markets" and there is so much confusion it reminds me of a dylan song
let's say we're watching slo-mo train wrecks, and we're all in the damned trains, but now maybe, the banksters are starting to appear ready to admit they are losing control. yes, they have an invention called the printing press, but no, politically, another answer is needed at this point
and it is not forthcoming from the banksters or the politicians, neither of whom are gonna stop being frauds and cash-filled buckets of crime and corruption; it is coming from the PM bull. it is just "crushing" other "assets"
slewie-as-technician sez that gold is tired and silver is ready to run
fade that, BiCheZ!
Slewie you have the skills... Love volatility. It's your friend! Embrace it and manage your margin... You have the skills.
Yen.
ron paul supporters jeer israhole lacky herman cain. what a dipshit this guy is.......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=01PEffm4pwg&NR=1
Ron Paul is a Protectionist Fool! Ron Paul is a " Stage Fossile"...
"Ron Paul is a Protectionist Fool! Ron Paul is a " Stage Fossile"...
...an yo an azzhole trool boy but we doan talk bad about yo behin yo bak like yo talk about Mr Paul...
Make me wonder... wud yo say dat to Mr Paul face, boy?
I didin tink so...
TROLL
hey boy... did i mention dat GOLD HAS KICKED THE CRAP OUT OF EQUITIES FOR THE LAST 11 YEARS AND CONTINUES TO DO SO? didn tink so... hehehe
Do I need to Repeat My Self ya Lib Tard?
Hey boy, yo didn answer de question!
wuld yo talk bad to Mr Paul to hiz faze?
Yo doan neber anszer no questions boy, how yo goan expek get respek when yo doan anzer no question?
Snidley,I have never junked you! Trash is already JUNK. You never cease to amaze me! Ya Liberal ( Wind Bag)...
And Yon Krill I am amazed that a spoiled brat like you even has a job... If indeed you do...
And I don't care if you junk me... It effects my life in what way? No way!
You throw out a bunch of names at people that do not agree with you and I suppose you are hoping to strike a cord? Or what?
If you really believe in that chart stuff you are either a real fool or are doing it for a living and are hoping you can sell that crap to bigger fools than yourself... There is no third way... And in either case you are a fool or a chisler and not someone that I would ever associate with. You are beneath me... You are one step above a thief... but not morally.
But, you will never understand any of this cause you are too busy trying to chisel another buck to buy some more crap that you think you need cause you got this big empty space inside and mistakenly think that more crap will fill it... But more crap isn't the answer. You gotta grow up and be a man and now you are still a boy.
So, at some time in your life you will come to some very tough cross road and you will look back and you are probably not going to like the trail of destruction that you see in your wake... You better decide if you want to help people or fuck up their lives for it will make a difference when you are older and more reflective... When you get older memories are all that matter to sane people. We have lots of stuff but that shit don't matter any more. What you have done and how it's effected people will matter.
Think about it...
If you could get paid ( 4.75%) where would you go? Asia 7-9 % growth. No Brainer.
"No Brainer" Well I never thought you would admit it...
It takes a real man to stand up and say he is a no brainer... even when all in attendence already know it to be a fact!
Congrats Yon Krill, Yo gots my respeck, boy...
Snidley you are completely out of touch! Open the thread so others can speak. You and I is separate.) I must profess that you are DUMBING down the markets... Typical Liberal.... The Screw me Mantra? Learn to act like an Individual! Ya Tool!
P.S. Snidley/ Postulate Real Estate from WWII. Ya Tool!
Hey boy, anszer de math question... solve... ifin yo can... It be up tred a bit... simple equaliasion boy... solve it...
sho us how smart yo are! Yo sur nuff know a little math ifin you dreams up all dose charts, eh?
wees be waitin boy...
Can I have an ignore button for this fucking idiot.
JFC Snidley, do you really think that ebonics shit is that funny? My god, what is that, 6, 7 posts in a row with the ghetto shit? Give it a fuckin rest.
No offense, ya obnoxious fuck.
Perhaps you would like to solve the math problem? If not STFU!
Oh, he does speak English. Math problem? Let's see--1 Snidley Whipsnae + 1 bottle of whiskey = 1 stupid, mean-ass fucking drunk. Did I get it right?
Hell boy, I ain't even drunk yet!
In case you were not around for the beginning of this little spat... Yon Krill attacked me last night for no aparent reason... and I responded... and on and on...
Now that boy, Yon Krill, has some strange ideas... He thinks he is a math whiz/chartist/psudo economist but he won't attempt to solve the little math problem that I asked he solve... and he believes that respect can be demanded when in truth it can only be earned... etc, etc...
Well, to make this shorter... He threatened me with physical harm and made a bunch of really stupid assumptions/accusations about me and it pissed me off... so, fuck him.
Stoned? Ya stoned...
I'll smack your bitch ass back into the stone age. I'll drill you soo deep your mama will be oil! Bitch
Fascinating. But I was just trying to get you to stop with the not-even-remotely-amusing and poorly executed ebonics shtick. I find it extremely annoying when white guys do that. Obviously, you can do whatever turns your crank. I just felt the need to jump in your shit, this bein' Fight Club after all. Nothin' personal.
I solved the math problem . Thanks Sun Shine. I owe ya one. I was working through the gbp/ jpy charts.
FWIW Snidleys equation is out of date and antiquated. You will see with my response. Once again Thank you Sun Shine. Yen
You solve nothing... Once again you have proven that telling lies is your specialty... Is that a requirement when selling bull shit chart voodoo to fools?
Hell boy, you can't even tell me what the problem was related to... Is it finance? Is it engineering? Is it yo mamas number of sane children?
You're a hoot Yon Krill... Read my post above and see why the big empty hole inside your dumb ass is never filled... Not enough crap in the world to fill those holes boy.
Futures are up... haha...
If I am not mistaken, isn't the September contract roll tomorrow ? Maybe they try one last ditch plunge to nudge the contract holders to sell ?
Nah !
Anywho, here is another live feed of all the world markets and it's free as well. Note: The world's data feeds have someone screwing with them, ever since we hit the bottom last week. After the roll tomorrow, I am expecting a huge surge up !
Link to live feed market data free:
http://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-rates-foreign-exchange/real-time-quotes/QuoteList.aspx
P.S. make sure you look at the tabs right above the data for other markets available for free real time !
Fat finger there !
Snark.... Snark...
Snidley WHIPSAW IS STUCK IN " Fiat" Need I say more?
No Yon Krill, you need not say more... you have already made a total azz of yourself...
I follow ZH, but have only posted once.. BTW, I Love this site ! Thanks for feeding us real News ! I'm not a trader. Don't know shit about it.. But I am a news hound. So from that perspective, I believe the COMEX is ran by a Bunch of Crooks ! The people that over see the COMEX, are a bunch of Crooks ! And there is no such thing as free market trade ! So at these Dirt cheap Prices of where Gold and Silver are going, Who gives a shit what the FIAT Price is !
These Bankster want to put it on a Fire Sale to show there is no Inflation, Double down and Thank the Good Lord above ! Punish them and Buy ! If you added up all the Gold and Silver by Troy ounce Combined, would they even Match the world population.. Now, were counting paper silver and gold here..
I personally don't know of a lot of buyers out there at the moment.. I ask people all the time, "What are you doing to prepare for the Economic collapse that is about to hit us ! " And I just get a bunch of stupid looks ! So in a humble way, I try to educate them.. They don't know, what we know.. I have had a lot of success, of turning people around here lately.. They see their bills rising, and don't know what to do ! I just Thank God, that I get it ! I'm Ringing the Bell, I don't want to be the only person around me with "Real Money" !
I'm a poor guy, with nine kids, and eight grand kids, and another on the way.. Five of my kids that live on their own , buy Silver.. My parents, buy Silver.. A lot of my friends are now buying silver.. I have my own small repair shop, and I talk to a lot of people.. In this last year, I've talked to Hundreds of people, and I've only bumped into one guy, that told me to plow my money into silver.. lolol The Only True bubble is FIAT ! It sets the Standard !
SRus... Welcome aboard! Caution... Watch your step... Carefull not to trip over the anti PM trolls...
Enjoy!
Snidley I saw you today. Guess where? A " Hint" ( Over the Rain Bow) then I flushed...
That way yo mama Yon Krill... I was bangin her and she got her hair wet when you flushed...
welcome to the boards and strings
and rinpoche_ below me is new, too, his first post, making his point, too
either that, or he's working on an s-o-s
go kick some ass,
BiCheZ!!!!!
+ $1820 and + $40
Swingers, that was a great comment. On the ground reporting, we need more of that here. ALMOST all people I know give me blank stares and funny looks when I ask them what they are doing if our economy goes south (again).
It is good for you and yours that you (and some of yours as well) are buying silver.
Consider 1/10 oz Gold Eagles as a "diversification" in precious metals. That would run you about $200, maybe a hair less.
Silver will be for spending if TSHTF, gold will be for preserving wealth... Whatever the amount of wealth you may have.
If your repair shop is doing OK now, just wait... It will likely do MUCH better if TSHTF. Good luck!
If you have time on your hands, read FOFOA:
fofoa.blogspot.com <--- my trail guide through the rocky times ahead
Welcome Swingers. Just hang in there. Read and learn all you can -- they might take all your possessions but they can't take your knowledge, no matter what they'd like you to think.
.
BofA, GS and MS research reports on Apple after Steve left. Premium.
http://capital3x.com/?p=375
Euro charts and analysis. EURO may not be the best short candidate out there according to this piece.
http://capital3x.com/?p=325
I finally placed order for some GLD tomorrow.Any advice?
With a Greenspan Avatar? Nope...
GLD? Paper gold? No advice, just my sympathy.
The first step to take while confiscating gold is to engineer a crash. Panic selling by sheeple will take care of the rest.
I live in Ireland, a year or 2 ago, the 1st time I saw Glen Beck on tv, I instantly knew he was disinformation puppet, designed partly to try and corrupt the messages coming from the alternative media, cant belive some of you folks bought into is crap, even for a while, i gave the zh flock more respect than that!.
P.S Snidley, u da man!
The gold bubble is happening nicely almost exactly in a way I predicted in the chart on May 4th, 2011, here:
http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sta...
Correction time is October 2011.
I took some heat last night for saying gold was overbought.
RULE NUMBER 1 - When everyone is saying that an asset can only go higher without anyone looking at the reality of the situation it can only equate to a problem ... and it usually goes the other way ... much like Silver did at $50.00. All I heard was the same herd mentality talk.
I don't want to boast but come on ... even me... a long time gold bug who has bought gold since the triple digit days and silver sub $10.00 feels that the asset got frothy. IT NEEDS healthy consolodation. Calling for such doesn't make one a gold bear.
I recommended people short gold at the top.
http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2011/08/time-to-take-closer-look-at-gold.html
Then I advised to cover as level reached
http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-continues-to-tumble-position.html
And then Friday I went short again on the bounce.
http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2011/08/trading-idea-in-goldretracement-level.html
How is your investment doing this Monday morning?
Never get attached to any investment. EVER. Long term bullish on gold doesn't mean I can't spot an overbought condition. Paper profits = more cash to buy the actual physical.
Have a great day.
RULE NUMBER 1 - When everyone is sayin...
That's the point, only a tiny percentage of investors are in gold or silver. NOT everyone. Probably, in 2000, there was a website where "everyone" was saying tech was in a bubble, but everybody else, on every other website, was was saying "buy the dips".
Gold IS overbought, just as real estate is oversold. So, go out and buy a house.
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Nehmen Sie an diesem vorgewählten Belstaff lederjacke herren insgesamt sieben Kandidaten. Zusätzlich zu den grundlegenden aufzugeben Iowa, der frühere US-Botschafter Jon Huntsman, wurden die restlichen sechs alle in Iowa an diesem Tag. Nach den Ergebnissen der Umfrage,Belstaff jacket der ehemalige Gouverneur von Massachusetts Mitt Romney, Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, und der ehemalige Senator Rick Pennsylvania Santos Haslem Unterstützung für die Führung. Doch etwa 40% der Wähler bei den Vorwahlen noch ändern Belstaff Jacken herren können ihre Unterstützung für das Objekt, so der ehemalige Sprecher des Repräsentantenhauses Newt Gingrich und Gouverneur von Texas, Rick Perry und die Minnesota House of Representatives nicht Belstaff Tasche keine Chance, von hinten kommen. In Iowa wurde die Landeshauptstadt Belstaff lederjacke damen Höhepunkt der zwei Wahlen, Hunderte von Wählern in der Szene registriert in der Nacht nach der anderen, um bei den Vorwahlen Belstaff Jacken damen teilnehmen. Canada Goose Parka,canada goose jakke,MBT zapatos,MBT España