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Guest Post: How To Explain Greece To A Complete Idiot / Politician

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Simon Black of Sovereign Man

How To Explain Greece To A Complete Idiot/Politician

Let’s pretend for a moment that Greece is a human being. I’ll call him George.

George is a hairdresser and makes $40,000 per year. George has limited assets. He has zero savings, no precious metals, and is way underwater on his mortgage. His credit card debt is over $100,000, and his bare minimum living expenses are $45,000 annually, over 10% more than he makes. George’s credit is pitiful, and he cannot obtain any more new loans.

George’s neighbor Hans has a big family. All the kids work hard and contribute to the family savings. Hans sees George’s plight and decides the neighborhood has to stick together; he starts loaning George some money out of his family’s savings, and eventually begins to take on more and more of George’s personal debts.

Many of the other neighbors– Luciano, Seamus, and Juan– are in the same boat as George: drowning in debt with massive personal expenses and no hope to pay them back.

Everyone is looking to Hans for help.  He’s the responsible one in the neighborhood. Now, Hans doesn’t want them all to go bust because he knows it would be bad for the neighborhood property values… but Hans’s children are balking at the prospect of working hard on their newspaper routes just so that George can keep his plasma screen TV.

Very soon, George is going to run out of options and will have to have a difficult conversation with his credit card companies. In the real world, there is no other choice.

In the pretend world of politics, however, European leaders have been able to convince everyone that it’s all under control. Never mind that the whole situation has completely fractured capital markets; traditional valuation metrics have taken a back seat to rumors of secret meetings and loud talk of bailout plans.

Think about it: Dexia passed summer bank stress tests with flying colors. A couple of months later it’s going bust. How can markets function without confidence in balance sheet accuracy? Or whether a government will even be around tomorrow? This is kind of a problem when sovereign debt is the cornerstone of the financial system…

And yet, stock markets worldwide surged today on the news of a European ‘pledge’ to help banks.

Do yourself a favor and stop watching their lips move. These ‘plans’ are nothing more than lies and misdirection. Just like our friend George, a Greek default has to happen.  Politicians can pretend whatever they want, but in the real world where we live, financial deadbeats have no other options.

 

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Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:14 | 1757797 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

"in the real world where we live", I think he means us because Tin Tin goes third world trotting ain't OUR real world.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:15 | 1757798 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Last I checked Athens has 111t of the Au, and unlike the Dutch, I'm pretty sure they have theirs if you know what I mean.

George is only the beginning, seeing how his family is small (population) the real clusterfuck to resume as scheduled.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:45 | 1757924 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

111 tonnes of gold at 1650 ish an ounce is still only worth $4.3 billion, not nearly enough to even plug this FY shortfall for Greece. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:13 | 1757802 Toe Cutter
Toe Cutter's picture

It's all an illusion, bitchez!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:14 | 1757805 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Hans has large shadow debt as well.... and his grandfather was a vicious bastard.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:52 | 1757960 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Yes. The situation would be much better if Hans kept up with the Georges.  That would solve everything.

If we're talking about past history, let's waltz over to Sir Winston's abode and discuss which great empire has coddled the war financiers for centuries?  

Or which empire invented the concentration camp to use on those less excited about the Sun never setting on the Empire.

Jolly ol' Adolf actually fancied the Empire, stupidly thought he could work with their Lilly-white assess given their brutal history of conquest and subjugation seemed to go hand in hand with his plans.

Even nutty Wilhelm just wanted to keep up with his nifty cousins, who would have none of sharing the seas, let alone the globe, leading to the War of Royal Egos we call WWI.

But just dump on the new (frankly quite generous, if not dimwittedly so with his endless war guilt), jolly old Fritz.  He's the only one in the neighborhood actually producing stuff people want.  The rest of Europe seems content to either be in the money printing & shuffling / redistribution biz (ala London), or are sitting on the foundations of their forefathers, hoping the Pantheon, Colosseum, etc. can keep the $$ flowing.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:05 | 1758018 flattrader
flattrader's picture

From Simon Black of Sovereign Man

How To Explain Greece To A Complete Idiot/Politician

Let’s pretend for a moment that Greece is a human being. I’ll call him George.

 

What crap.  Should have been titled "How an Idiot Explains Greece to Another Idiot."

I often wonder why the Tylers continue to post this kind of nonsense.  Sovereign Man is becoming almost as bad as Charles Hugh Smith.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:11 | 1758046 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Very enlightening counterpoint.  Very.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 14:31 | 1758386 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

"What crap"

I didn't really have a problem with it, and I understand what a 151% yield on the GGB 1yr implies about recovery rates.

I gather that you really, really dislike Simon the globetrotter, but you didn't put too much effort into explaining the "crap" part.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 19:42 | 1759433 defencev
defencev's picture

Agreed. If one should use this very poor metaphore, one should mention that Hans prosperity is based on selling his stuff to neighbours whom he lend the money. Hans also managed to introduce local currency among neighbours. This makes his life

much easier than Li who is doing the same thing to Sam (selling a lot of his stuff and lending money) but Sam is permanently complaining that Li dumps on him his products.

 SB reached BKK. He is just short two hour ride from his ultimate destination: Pattaya. SB sold a lot of his junk to sheeple and now is going to have a well deserved relaxation in Paradise.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 06:31 | 1759697 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

 

 

Deleted, too much Rum and Coke

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:03 | 1759070 asteroids
asteroids's picture

The solution is simple. Han's starts fucking George's wife until the debt is paid off.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:31 | 1759145 sterling effort
sterling effort's picture

Have you seen George's wife? Han's has standards.

He wouldn't fuck her with your dick.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:14 | 1757806 YellowShark
YellowShark's picture

I got $10 on a slow-motion trainwreck. They're gonna drag this shit out for at least another 18mos.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:16 | 1757815 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, maybe longer.  The NWO must make "Georges" out of everyone before implimentation of a world currency.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:55 | 1757968 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Hans also has a serial history of home invasion and mass murder.  He had to get Seamus to take his "help" by putting a gun to his head, and while Hans looks serious and stable he has a lot of problems of his own, his family is too big for his house, his employer (YOU) is going broke, his house is badly located between warring rival gangs on the east and west, a major family schism has only recently been healed at great and ongoing expense, as if that were not enough one of his boys has recently started to shave his head and yell Sieg Heil again. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:09 | 1758030 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Über yawn.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 14:00 | 1758271 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Yeah.. Keep dinging my yawns with negatives.  Really -- I'm just really tired of the "Germans are all Hitlers offspring" never move on cheap shots.

Don't you dimwits realize that Hitler subjugated many of his own people, and carted off lots of the entrepreneurial class that wanted nothing to do with his National Socialist Party brand of fascism?  That Hitler has his own version of "these people need to pay their fair share" that resonated with the dimwitted masses?  That the story of Hitler is a story of the dimwits following Authoritarianism because the State has all the answers to the little guys' problems?

Still don't see it?

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 14:38 | 1758421 agrotera
agrotera's picture

So well said Leopold B. Scotch!!!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 16:06 | 1758863 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

I did not see where anyone but you mentioned AH, though certainly he was alluded to and that is only fair insofar as he is a part of their history and national character, but German history is longer and bloodier than just the Nazi era.  In fact at this point Germany is doing what is best for Germany, if there is any real effort to buoy the slackers in the 17 nation EZ it is only because German banks will be the eventual casualties of non payment, so as in the case of Ireland untold billions in bailouts will be forced on those who were victims of an insane one size fits all monetary policy and when that money is delivered it nary for a moment resides in the accounts of the recipients before it leaves town for the accounts of German banks.  In fact the bailouts never even really make it as far as the shores of Greece or Ireland but instead are accounting entries at Commerzbank and Landesbank and Duetsche Bank.  What is left in the nations made to take these "stabilizations" is unsustainable debt that cannot be paid down in 4 generations and which will eat a significant portion of GDP until they are defaulted upon, but by then the German banks will be whole and when those governments default it will be upon their own people since the debt is merely being shifted from German commercial interests to foreign sovereigns. 

As to the red arrows for the yawns, I am not sure about this but when posters put up such non comments that imply you are right and they are wrong, as in any statements about the subject are a tiring waste of time if YOU did not make them, well, it is understandable that people flip it a red downer.  Post something with a position and people will red or green it based upon it's content, but simply posting YAWN!!! is wasting everyone's time.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:17 | 1757817 Debtless
Debtless's picture

George ends up with Yusef in Hans' oven...i've seen this story before.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:20 | 1757829 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

... so does Goldstein and the boy named Leslie.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:42 | 1757908 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Yawn.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:18 | 1757819 ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

Sovereign  Black or Sovereign  Man?

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:18 | 1757820 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

i am betting with my monies,  short 50 /es at 1184.  probably get my ass handed to me.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:21 | 1757836 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Brave. I admire your courage/stupidity.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:38 | 1757887 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I admire stupidity too. It can provide great entertainment. Anybody remember Evil Knievil?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:06 | 1758019 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

I had the Evil Knievel hand-crank motor-cycle and action figure set, which came with a ramp.  

Evil never managed to land the jump down the stairs to the first floor.  He landed a few nice ones into my sister's dollhouse, though.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:23 | 1758087 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

YEP, 5K WORTH OF ASS SANDED OFF

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:18 | 1757821 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Let's see. There are useless idiots, useful idiots, flaming idiots, stupid idiots, idiot savants and now complete idiots. I would say the plumbing is plugged up because we are overflowing with idiots.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:20 | 1757833 Ancona
Ancona's picture

+1

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:31 | 1757863 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Is idiot not ordinal? What was an idiot 50 years ago is considered average today? We will soon be in this scenario

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idiocracy

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:51 | 1758211 dearth vader
dearth vader's picture

What do you mean by 'soon'? The fools have been in charge since Adam left Paradise.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 14:14 | 1758327 Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

Too true, though also funny that the ancient Greek origin of the word had to do with people who were too self centered to participate in public affairs like voting. But in the larger ancient sense, ZH is an anti-idiocy school where people bother to learn what is really going on.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 14:39 | 1758426 Leopold B. Scotch
Leopold B. Scotch's picture

Sounds like a Job for the PlungeMax.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:23 | 1757822 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

George is a government apparatchik and known for beating young women to death in two bit hotel rooms and will be taken care of by his handlers....Hans is a gay libertarian social science professor and will not do well in gulag. Simon has a messiah complex and plays RISK alone in the dark.

Luciano, Seamus, and Juan are government spys.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:35 | 1757880 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

We need to be worried about whole countries not a couple of people that live in south central, I think the problem is bigger than what he makes out , this guy needs to do some traveling.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:22 | 1757834 Ronaldo
Ronaldo's picture

So, lets assume this makes a sensible presentation of the facts.  Reality still has the market is going up and people (for a week) therefore must even believe those lips more and more each day they see the positive outcome.  Maybe this is indeed how a crash does surprise everyone.  We sit here believing our perspective, but watching the unbelievable outcome as the market moves higher, until some people give in to temptation a join the rest of the people.  That is when the reality acutally happens for therest of the world.

I am going to sit on the sidelines and wait for a time to get back in, but it wont be soon, unless the crash has actually come.  This is not a market that seems to be reacting to facts that are highlighted here, but one that can overlook those facts and comes to an entirely different conclusion, thus it moves higher.

 

 

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:13 | 1758052 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Up up and away, nearly every stock up, nearly all commodities up, money money money, it all takes money, by the pallet load, all sidelined cash and then some which can only mean PPT's around the world are doubling down.  And the reasons are all about QE's, 3/4 in the USA, Chinese promises to buy equity to support financials/maintain dollar peg.  Euroland being flooded with dollars by the fed, or had people not noticed the ForEx move by the euro up 3 plus since COB Friday, those dollars have to be sold for euro to be injected into the Dexia black hole if they are going to avoid contagion.  Slovack Republic aside, because we all know they will get their arms twisted  and a loaded gun to their heads, same as in Dublin, German speaking technocrats roaming the halls of the various finance ministries issuing orders.  Berlusconi acting like only he can:

George Clooney’s ‘Astonishing’ Evening in Berlusconi’s Bedroom

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/entertainment/2011/10/george-clooneys-astonishing-evening-in-berlusconis-bedroom/

Just another day in the "real" world.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:22 | 1757837 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

Did I miss the QE3 announcement this moring?

This is insanity.  There's no rational reason for markets rising like they are today.   EZ is on the edge of cascading collapse.  Nothing but lies and bullshit keeping it afloat now.

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:25 | 1757845 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just got to add some padding before tomorrows dump...coming down from cocaine and hopium binges is a real bitch.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:42 | 1757906 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Hehehe.

Go EWZ!

Daddy neds ten percent average annual returns over next 15 years to retire.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:22 | 1758084 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Between June 2009, when the recession officially ended, and June 2011, inflation-adjusted median household income fell 6.7 percent, to $49,909, according to a study by two former Census Bureau officials. During the recession — from December 2007 to June 2009 — household income fell 3.2 percent.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44840144

Since the above is from CNBS you know it is actually worse than this.  I tried only to get relevant census material sans CNBS spin.

The full 9.8 percent drop in income from the start of the recession to this June — the most recent month in the study — appears to be the largest in several decades, according to other Census Bureau data. Gordon W. Green Jr., who wrote the report with John F. Coder, called the decline “a significant reduction in the American standard of living.”

DUH!  Master of the obvious.

So incomes drop 10% that they will admit to, and inflation though unreported is at least 10% in the same period, =20% drop in living standards in just over three years.  And my only question is why has OWS been CIVIL disobedience so far? 

Good luck with getting that real return on your investments, good luck getting your investments returned. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:32 | 1757870 Conax
Conax's picture

The investors are like battered wives. In their minds they have no place else to go, so they are in denial, happy to keep their minds right and stay on the equities plantation.

The recent PM slaughterfest convinced them there is no future there, so they throw their concerns to the wind and beleive.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:34 | 1758131 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

They are thinking, "I HOPE the stock market goes up, because if not , all I have is a little CHANGE in my pocket".

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:51 | 1758209 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Oh if only I were a better wife (investor) he would stop beating me up.  House showing major signs of disrepair and neglect, he is out getting drunk every day on grain alcohol (QE brand) because he can't find a job.  And divorce is out of the question because we are Catholic and have 14 kids (two with special needs). 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:39 | 1757891 J 457
J 457's picture

Better dump it before the 1:00 sell-off begins...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:48 | 1757938 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

@ Geezer..  There was a QE announcement over the weekend. Europe said they are

going to bail out their banks and that means they are going to print because the masses

are not going to pay for another bank bailout, at least not directly.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:11 | 1758044 Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

Dexia=QE3 (European style?)

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 14:45 | 1758465 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

China's sov wealth fund is QE'ing their banks...hmmm.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:23 | 1757839 somethingelse
somethingelse's picture

theme song for today's rally:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJP2PH8WKaI

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:26 | 1757850 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture
How To Explain Greece To A Complete Idiot / Politician

Simon: ?

DP: too much debt stolen from world at low rates...

Simon: ?

DP: borrow and not pay back!

Simon/Idiot: ?

DP: never mind.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:27 | 1757851 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

There were some that thought the Titanic couldn't/wouldn't sink either.

Relying on any "foreign" country to get your affairs in order (which the Greeks won't) is a recipe for failure.

Greece is the equivalent of the lamprey eel.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:28 | 1757854 oogs66
oogs66's picture

you forgot the part where hans lends money to juan so he can give it to George so that hans can say to his kids that other families are pitching in too

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:44 | 1757915 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Don't forget George gives hans an IOU so Hans can put it on his books as an asset and then sell it to Juan as a CDS and get interest on the deal ,that is after he gave a copy to his accountant for tax relif and then gave a copy to his bank for them to okay the home loan that he needed because now he is holding assets

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:28 | 1757855 wombats
wombats's picture

Extend and pretend.  The ECB may not be able to (easilly) print, but they can make phoney deals for recapitalizing everyone via worthless EFSF debt and picking German taxpayer pockets.  With a little help from Ben and Tim the EU "leaders" can keep the music going...

...and the band played on while the deck hands rearranged the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:29 | 1757856 Alvaro de Esteban
Alvaro de Esteban's picture

Keeping people thinking they are idiots it is their strategy to win.

They (politicians) are not idiots they are clever & focused in maintaining power, money & privileges for them, their masters and friends

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:30 | 1757857 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

when the only thing that moves the market up is more rumors of more bailouts for more insolvent banks...it's time to get the fuck out of dodge.

it happened in America, it's happening in Europe and in China and it will need to happen AGAIN in America.

this whole situation is fucked in more ways than you can put a number to.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:40 | 1757894 Belarus
Belarus's picture

well said, alien. It's goint to be a global collapse of epic proportions. Printing confetti to gloss over untenable debts will end much worse than taking the hard pain now: but it does allow one even more time to accumulate even more precious metals and prepare oneself even more fully for the armegeddon headning our way.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:32 | 1758125 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Indeed, plus one Alien, but they were able to levitate the whole stinking garbage mountain disaster longer than I was able to stay solvent, as is so often the case.  Would somebody please calculate my fair share of the combined corporate and total government debts and forward a bill to me please.  Two hundred ninety eight thousand six hundred eighty seven dollars and fifty three cents and rising at about twelve dollars forty a minute.   Assets I can use to settle the debt=nil.  Watching the implosion = priceless. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:30 | 1757858 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

Close friend of mine as a child fell into a slumber
No sign of life since '75
Then one day he just, what do you know
I guess God just called his number

He called me up he called me up and said
"I've been awake about a week
I'm thinking about asking the doctor
If he could put me back to sleep"

Kind of how I feel!!

PS lyrics courtesy of the incredible talent that is George Michael

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:31 | 1757861 Saro
Saro's picture

Guest Post: How To Explain Greece To A Complete Idiot / Politician

"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." - Mark Twain

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:34 | 1757865 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

So then Silvio, Merkel, and Sarkozy make Hans a house visit and get the party going.  Then Christine Lagarde knocks down the door.  The cameras start rolling....

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:31 | 1757866 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

It all began with a BANG and will END with an even bigger BANG! Can't fucking wait to see it, front row, popcorn and all! Gun and chick on my knees!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:35 | 1757879 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

don't confuse the two. bang bang.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:36 | 1757869 falak pema
falak pema's picture

you forgot that george took on the Squid (calomari from WS) as financial consultant; that he is in bed with the oligarchs, as no taxes on oligarchical church, whereas most church clerics are on government payroll!

The greek ship owners lobby all have boats registered in Caymans or Liberia  and so pay no taxes. This is the biggest bunch of Onassis type shills in Greek lands, like one eyed Cyclops, who can't see what their left hand does as their right hand says we create all the riches. This is a national sport, what the top guy does the bottom guy wants to do. So the roads, hospitals and schools in Greece are all built on BORROWED loans. From HAns and Francois. Makes George more of a pansy than Adonis and more of a predator than randy Pan.

So George is no dragon slayer, he is dragon breeder. One that could bring down Zeus on Olympus. We don't need George in Athens we need Hercules.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:04 | 1757873 hambone
hambone's picture

The "idiot" is the one who believes he knows why this "market" should not do what it's doing...when you invest in a fraud and then believe TA or fundy's will matter in the short term you are bound to be sorely mistaken.

Pay debt down, stack up, have a plan for others not to have a plan (beyond planning to eventually make a plan that will plan for the unplanable future that "no one could have known was coming").

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:34 | 1757874 moriarty
moriarty's picture

I think Peter Gabrial whote a song abou this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKb9XQ39-zc

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:35 | 1757881 goodrich4bk
goodrich4bk's picture

What a bunch of moralistic crap.  Hans didn't get rich from his kids' paper route.  He got rich selling his machinery and equipment to George, Luciano, Seamus and Juan --- all of whom needed loans from Hans' bank to finance their purchases. 

Debtors and their creditors deserve each other.  Let them sink or swim together and leave me out of it.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:37 | 1758141 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

bingo.

 

Start the war, then finance both sides.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:35 | 1757882 Belarus
Belarus's picture

I respectfully disagree with the Author, there is a plan, and it will be to print money. And as Kyle Bass said, Hans is hardly in good shape: Germany's debt/gdp is 80% BEFORE recaping their own banks. If they recap their own banks post Greece, you're looking at roughly 125% debt/gdp.

In other words, I do think Merkel and Sarkozy agreed to on something: they must print and die later or die within a month. What choice do you reall think they picked?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:51 | 1757937 ??
??'s picture

you are exactly correct, they will  leverage  their equiv of Hanks bazooka by a factory of ten - they are desperate and have no options other than to resign - if you think QE2 goosed commodities and equities wait for EFSFx10

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:37 | 1757885 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Never underestimate the replacement power of stocks within a Zimbabwe-esque Western World monetary policy spendfest.

Gold and solid equities, a little silver, and no bonds whatsoever.

The 2012 Bubble of all Bubbles will prove to be bonds.

BUY BUY BUY - cash is trash.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:59 | 1758263 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

There is a critical and obvious difference between Zimbabwe and the G20, Zimbabwe printed trillions and trillions and quadrillions of $ZIM and put it out on the street for the average person to choke on, the G20 is printing till the presses (electronic) smoke but actual M1, and 2 overall is falling even as prices rise. 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:38 | 1757886 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

4 words.........

 

BANKS ARE THE GOVERNMENT

 

kill the banks

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:45 | 1757923 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

that's 7 words. Greek bond math, eh?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:38 | 1757888 ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Computers are picking up on the news flow, and trading on that.  We are along for the ride, but we have brains that tell us that the news is more bullshit, right?  The computers feed off each other and the rise in the market and push it higher.  IBM at all time high today????? 

Does anyone want to pick up an Oct 22nd IBM $175 put for $1.21?  They were $10 on Tuesday.

 

 I am just stunned how the market moves on idiotic news over the weekend. 

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:39 | 1757892 ??
??'s picture

Bloomberg at noon

Greg Valliere Chief Political Strategist, Potomac Research Group

 

The climate has changed since Friday, you can even feel it this morning, we dodged a (recession) bullet and we are going to grow at 2%. He points to the Friday jobs number as the reason. He goes on to explain that OWS has lost momentum since Friday because there will be no recession.

I am left speechless.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:42 | 1757895 Volaille de Bresse
Volaille de Bresse's picture

"George is a hairdresser and makes $40,000 per year. George has limited assets. He has zero savings, no precious metals, and is way underwater on his mortgage. His credit card debt is over $100,000, and his bare minimum living expenses are $45,000 annually, over 10% more than he makes"

 

And Georges lives in Texas, Illinois or California, right? The description fits the situation of many Americans...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:50 | 1757953 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Besides hairdressers in Greece make $100,000+ and retire at 50 with full pension.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:50 | 1758205 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

California.

IIRC George was played by Warren Beatty.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:40 | 1757899 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

...1 es contract is approx 60K exposure?...is that correct?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:44 | 1757913 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Bailouts do not resolve the systemic problems of not enough job creation and massive deficit spending.

EU = FUBAR

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:48 | 1757940 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes but short term the mental patients prefer delusion, so while its all totaly screwed, for today we party and celebrate!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:44 | 1757916 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

The real problem since day one has not been the PIIGS but the banks that hold their debt and how to unload it, bury it, or rebrand it before the default...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 12:51 | 1757956 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Spending our way out of debt by socializing losses. The politicians' and the banksters have an uncanny ability to find the cowards way out. My only regret is that I won't be around when the neck stretching starts.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:00 | 1757991 slvrizgold
slvrizgold's picture

I will explain it:   USA just like Greece (debt that can never be repaid, large number of nonproductive citizens) , but bigger...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:08 | 1758026 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

must be hard to sell a newsletter and come up with interesting things to fill a page everyday...if this passes for interesting from SB, I'll pass. Why does ZH post it? revenue share? free time share in Chile?? As hard to run an interesting blog for lack of interesting material??? The comments section of ZH is better then a Sovereign Man missive....

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:12 | 1758051 HD
HD's picture

You no pay! No more gyros for you. You pay NOW!

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:39 | 1758148 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

I would gladly pay you Wednesday for a gyro today...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:14 | 1758053 adr
adr's picture

The missed point is this. Real world George doesn't mean anything and has to pay for his debt with income he generates from work. Eventualy he can't pay for his debt and has to default. In the real world he is supposed to be screwed but at least he still generate income and keep the economy growing. The reason George ries to pay his debt is that someone holds him accountable for it.

The go vernments and corporations don't have anyone holding them accountable. They are free to mark loss as profit and swap debt around as long as it makes those in power look good. TBTF George continues to take on more and more debt because George controls the people that are supposed to hold him accountable.

Debt only matters when it is debt held by a slave. Debt held by slaveowners doesn't matter because every slaveowner is in debt and they can just steal from slaves to kep on consuming. As long as the slaves can work they can still keep their castle. The only thing the slaveholders fear is the slaves refusing to work. So they just keep bailing each other out so they can keep the slaves under control. If one group of slaves rebels all will rebel.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:36 | 1758096 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Who you think is ramping the Dow? The same ones who bought Greek debt. And where are they getting the money? They're printing it. Ever heard of fractional reserve banking? Ever heard of bonuses? Ever heard of moral hazard?

They're making their's now. Because they know it's going to end. And when is it going to end? When all their unpaid debt crashes the real economy.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:39 | 1758150 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

I found the best metaphors to use to explain things to idiots are of sexual nature.. you know things like references to shafts, orifices, positions and such. sometime referencing everyday objects such as coke bottles, round vegetables and fruits also helps. Referencing other body parts also helps, such as hands and feet.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 13:47 | 1758184 BookEditar
BookEditar's picture

I'm starting to think these people aren't even real. Sounds like a metaphor to me.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 15:29 | 1758702 Bejnamin Barnacle
Bejnamin Barnacle's picture

They (powerful and those in the know) are creating this illusion of safety while they dump any connection to any related markets.. Then once all their interests are protected, the market will plummet

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 17:13 | 1759095 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

Could you please explain metaphorically how, if Greece financially destitue, the USA is to selli/supply  400 M1A1 Abrams tanks to the Greek Army ?

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:29 | 1759269 ivars
ivars's picture

Good article, especially

Important to repeat in the light of Europe's optimism surge:

Based on this "analysis" : Greece debt and time squeeze ratio I could not come with any reason fro the squeeze as the intuitive one that Greece has used national debt money AFTER the crisis to accelerate increase in Athens General stock prices. They were way ahead of FED in creating "wealth effect".

Greeks have always been ingenious people with lot of ideas. Now, the consequence of doing it so fast and on such a scale using debt has accelerated timeline for Greece as compared to the USA and most other countries 3 times-that is , their stock market was already in "recovery" in October 2009 while the rest of the Europe and USA reached that level with their SLOW  stimulus in July 2011.

See here comparison between Greece and USA stock markets where the abnormally speedy recovery of Greece's indexes is obvious:

Greece stock markets recovered with amazing speed

To cut it short, there are not many European countries in dire shape, there is JUST GREECE and then others which can be compared  between themselves.

So the prediction: Given the facts that:

1) EUR/USD rate will grow till the end of October /middle November as predicted here to 1,40: EURUSD, then drop back to 1,32 which is the level with Greece already priced in; (BTW, on the chart the big letters should read EUR/USD, not USD/EUR- a typo).

2) There are new companies/countries in need for artificial life support ( Dexia comes first);

3) Merkel and Sarkozy have a plan TODAY for Europe debt situation but details will be worked out by the end of OCTOBER;

Greece will default, leave Eurozone and return to drachma (GRD)  during H1 of November 2011.

Could not figure out drachma to EUR ratio easily at this moment, but I guess it will be around 1000GRD/EUR. Quite soon, as EUR problems expand even without Greece, in March 2012 exchange rate will be 700 GRD/EUR, then in July 2012, around 840 GRD/EUR, than again down to 620-700 GRD/EUR. From then on, most likely, GRD and EUR rate will be relatively stable untill 2013.

BTW, september 2013 will see secong exodus from EUROZONE,of a countries with cumulative GDP approximately 3 times the Greeces (309 billion) , around 930 billion . Or debt , Grreces 2011 492 billion*3= 1476 USD bilion in 2011.  Who will it be?

It is logical to look among countries most exposed to Greek dafault in relative terms excpet greece. IMF, eurozone, ECB?

Dexia. So my take is, in 2013 Belgium, ireland and Portugal will default and leave EUR,

 

 

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 18:30 | 1759273 Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

Of course Boleslav tries to tell Hans what he's doing is wrong, we'll have to wait til tomorrow to see if that has any effect.

Meanwhile Nigel peers from behind the curtains and giggles, not realising he's in deeper than Georgios and is only safe for now because everyone else is looking the other way. Nor does he realise that Seamus has 'borrowed' his atm card.

Tue, 10/11/2011 - 00:03 | 1760024 Henri-Gatien Co...
Henri-Gatien Comte Bertrand's picture

Monsieur Black certainly holds his readers in the highest esteem.

Wed, 10/12/2011 - 09:43 | 1765278 karmete
karmete's picture

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